For designers to build in resilience and adaptability to meet future climate loads, Building Codes must evolve to include predictive temperature, precipitation, wind, gust, and other environmental loads on buildings. This slide show includes selected information from ECCC on explains the current serious limitations facing designers.
The document discusses global warming and findings from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Key points include:
- Direct observations show unequivocal warming of the climate system through rising air and ocean temperatures, melting ice and snow, and rising sea levels.
- Various changes have been observed on continental, regional and ocean basin scales including changes in Arctic temperatures, precipitation amounts, ocean salinity and extreme weather.
- Global temperatures are rising faster in recent decades and the warmest years on record have all occurred since 1990. Arctic warming is double the global average.
- Greenhouse gas concentrations are far above pre-industrial levels due to human activity. Most warming since 1950 is
IPCC 2013 report on Climate Change - The Physical BasisGreenFacts
"Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis" is a comprehensive assessment of the physical aspects of climate change, which puts a focus on the elements that are relevant to understand past, document current, and project future climate change.
The report covers observations of changes in all components of the climate system and assess the current knowledge of various processes of the climate system.
Direct global-scale instrumental observation of the climate began in the middle of the 19th century, and reconstruction of the climate using proxies such as tree rings or the content of sediment layers extends the record much further in the past.
The present assessment uses a new set of new scenarios to explore the future impacts of climate change under a range of different possible emission pathways.
The first climate and weather presentation I\'ve given for 2012. Went over well, especially since I\'ve included video and improved the narrative (thanks to Stephan and John and their Debunking Handbook for that).
Presentation by Dr. Dan Vimont for the Climate Change and Midwest Agriculture: Impacts, Challenges, & Opportunities workshop held by the USDA Midwest Climate Hub on March 1-2, 2016.
Climatology of High Impact Winter Weather Events for U.S. Transport HubsDominique Watson
This document analyzes high impact winter weather events (HIWWEs) that cause major disruptions to transportation at 36 major US transport hubs. It examines temperature and precipitation thresholds to determine exceedances and probabilities. Spatial and temporal analyses show decreasing exceedance trends and correlations with El Niño. Feedback from weather services highlighted challenges defining precise HIWWE thresholds due to many physical and socioeconomic variables. Future work could provide more hub-specific analyses of ice impacts, hourly observations, and economic effects.
The document discusses a major snowstorm that hit Colorado in March 2003, causing significant snow accumulation and roof damage. It provides details on snow load calculations, typical snow densities, building code requirements, and analyses of specific roof failures during the storm. Insured property damage from the 2003 storm totaled over $93 million in Colorado. The document is a technical report analyzing the storm impacts and snow loads on structures.
The document discusses how snow and ice coverage in Antarctica is affected by climate change. It describes how greenhouse gas emissions are increasing global temperatures, causing ice sheets and glaciers to melt. This ice melt contributes to rising sea levels. The document also examines differences in ice melt between East and West Antarctica. Researchers study patterns like the Southern Annual Mode to better understand Antarctica's climate and how human activities like ozone depletion are impacting the region.
Conclusions
Ocean Mixed Layer Temperatures for both models are very similar, showing that the ocean conditions for the LGM and future climate underwent the same conditions at some point, could lead to colder temperatures
With this data alone available, we must infer that there could be a climate change due to melting of ice into the ocean, until there is more data to back up the hypothesis
EdGCM limits the amount of information we can compare
○ Only 100 years of predicted models
○ Not as many parameters available to model
The document discusses global warming and findings from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Key points include:
- Direct observations show unequivocal warming of the climate system through rising air and ocean temperatures, melting ice and snow, and rising sea levels.
- Various changes have been observed on continental, regional and ocean basin scales including changes in Arctic temperatures, precipitation amounts, ocean salinity and extreme weather.
- Global temperatures are rising faster in recent decades and the warmest years on record have all occurred since 1990. Arctic warming is double the global average.
- Greenhouse gas concentrations are far above pre-industrial levels due to human activity. Most warming since 1950 is
IPCC 2013 report on Climate Change - The Physical BasisGreenFacts
"Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis" is a comprehensive assessment of the physical aspects of climate change, which puts a focus on the elements that are relevant to understand past, document current, and project future climate change.
The report covers observations of changes in all components of the climate system and assess the current knowledge of various processes of the climate system.
Direct global-scale instrumental observation of the climate began in the middle of the 19th century, and reconstruction of the climate using proxies such as tree rings or the content of sediment layers extends the record much further in the past.
The present assessment uses a new set of new scenarios to explore the future impacts of climate change under a range of different possible emission pathways.
The first climate and weather presentation I\'ve given for 2012. Went over well, especially since I\'ve included video and improved the narrative (thanks to Stephan and John and their Debunking Handbook for that).
Presentation by Dr. Dan Vimont for the Climate Change and Midwest Agriculture: Impacts, Challenges, & Opportunities workshop held by the USDA Midwest Climate Hub on March 1-2, 2016.
Climatology of High Impact Winter Weather Events for U.S. Transport HubsDominique Watson
This document analyzes high impact winter weather events (HIWWEs) that cause major disruptions to transportation at 36 major US transport hubs. It examines temperature and precipitation thresholds to determine exceedances and probabilities. Spatial and temporal analyses show decreasing exceedance trends and correlations with El Niño. Feedback from weather services highlighted challenges defining precise HIWWE thresholds due to many physical and socioeconomic variables. Future work could provide more hub-specific analyses of ice impacts, hourly observations, and economic effects.
The document discusses a major snowstorm that hit Colorado in March 2003, causing significant snow accumulation and roof damage. It provides details on snow load calculations, typical snow densities, building code requirements, and analyses of specific roof failures during the storm. Insured property damage from the 2003 storm totaled over $93 million in Colorado. The document is a technical report analyzing the storm impacts and snow loads on structures.
The document discusses how snow and ice coverage in Antarctica is affected by climate change. It describes how greenhouse gas emissions are increasing global temperatures, causing ice sheets and glaciers to melt. This ice melt contributes to rising sea levels. The document also examines differences in ice melt between East and West Antarctica. Researchers study patterns like the Southern Annual Mode to better understand Antarctica's climate and how human activities like ozone depletion are impacting the region.
Conclusions
Ocean Mixed Layer Temperatures for both models are very similar, showing that the ocean conditions for the LGM and future climate underwent the same conditions at some point, could lead to colder temperatures
With this data alone available, we must infer that there could be a climate change due to melting of ice into the ocean, until there is more data to back up the hypothesis
EdGCM limits the amount of information we can compare
○ Only 100 years of predicted models
○ Not as many parameters available to model
This document summarizes key findings from the IPCC report on the physical science of climate change. It finds that increases in greenhouse gases like CO2 and methane are extremely likely due to human activity since 1750 and are causing the planet to warm. Global temperatures and sea levels have risen over the past century and models project further increases of 1-6°C and 0.3-0.8 meters respectively by 2100 depending on emissions scenarios. While uncertainty remains, effects like more extreme heat waves are very likely to continue worsening if emissions are not reduced.
This powerpoint presentation is produced by IPCC Working Group I for outreach purposes. It is based on the figures and approved text from the Working Group I Summary for Policymakers with some additional information on the process. The IPCC Working Group I website www.climatechange2013.org provides comprehensive access to all products generated by Working Group I during the fifth assessment cycle of the IPCC.
Global warming is occurring due to increasing greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide and methane in the atmosphere. The average global temperature has already risen 0.8 degrees Celsius since 1750 and is projected to increase another 1.5 degrees by 2100 if greenhouse gas emissions are not reduced. Long-term temperature records from ice cores and other scientific studies indicate that recent warming is occurring much faster than any natural temperature changes in the last 2,000 years. Continued climate change is expected to have significant environmental, economic, and social impacts around the world.
CSCR Agriculture Track w/ Larry Klotz: Weather or Not - Effects of Changing W...Sustainable Tompkins
Climate Smart & Climate Ready Conference Agriculture Track on April 19, 2013 at NYS Grange in Cortland, NY. Prof. Larry Klotz, SUNY Cortland. Weather or Not: Effects of Changing Weather on Local Agriculture. What is climate change? What are regional implications?
Are ‘little ice ages’ and ‘megadroughts’ possible?
Scientists are investigating whether changes in ocean circu- lation may have played a role in causing or amplifying the “Little Ice Age” between 1300 and 1850. This period of abruptly shift- ing climate regimes and more severe winters had profound agri- cultural, economic, and political impacts in Europe and North America and changed the course of history.
The document discusses a Senate committee hearing on climate change where administration officials agreed that human activities are largely responsible for recent climate changes but rejected mandating drastic reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. The officials proposed reducing US emissions intensity by 18% in 10 years rather than absolute reductions, but critics said this would allow emissions to increase. The document included a forwarded email with an attached report on the administration's climate change plans.
Global warming is caused primarily by human-induced increases in greenhouse gases from burning fossil fuels and deforestation. The planet's average surface temperature has risen about 1°C since 1900, with about two-thirds of the increase occurring since 1980. If emissions continue at a high rate, global temperatures could increase by 2.4-6.4°C by 2100. Impacts are already apparent and include sea level rise, extreme weather events, and species extinction. Mitigating emissions through policy changes aims to limit further warming to under 2°C.
1) Several US politicians wrote to President Bush expressing concern over his dismissal of a recent UN report on climate change submitted by the US.
2) The letter asks Bush to clarify if he agrees with several key conclusions and statements from the report, including that human activities are causing global warming and increased US emissions.
3) If Bush agrees with the report, the letter states that stronger action is needed than currently proposed to address the pressing problem of climate change.
Climate Ready Boston: Projection Consensus Summary Patrick Murray
The document summarizes climate projections for Boston from a working group of regional climate scientists. It finds that Boston will see increasing extreme temperatures, heavy precipitation, and sea level rise over the course of the 21st century depending on global greenhouse gas emission levels. Temperatures are projected to rise by over 10 degrees Fahrenheit by 2100 under a high emissions scenario, bringing many more days over 90 degrees each summer. Sea level is projected to rise up to 4 feet by 2070 and over 7 feet by 2100 under a high emissions scenario, increasing coastal flooding and beach erosion. Heavy rainfall events are also expected to continue increasing in frequency and intensity.
1) Senior Bush administration officials agreed that climate changes over the past decades were probably due to human greenhouse gas emissions but that mandating drastic reductions was not appropriate.
2) The administration's goal is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions intensity in the US economy by 18% over the next 10 years, but critics say this does not require actual emissions reductions as total emissions grew 12% from 1990 to 1999 while intensity dropped 17%.
3) A report from the National Wildlife Federation said the administration's plan would allow faster greenhouse gas pollution growth than if current trends continued.
Climate Change Basics: Issues and Impacts for BoatingNASBLA
State Climatologist David Zierden presented Climate Change Basics: Issues and Impacts for Boating to the National Association of State Boating Law Administrators on September 9, 2008
This document is an email from 2003 discussing edits made by the White House to an EPA report on the state of the environment. The White House removed a section on risks from rising global temperatures, leaving only a few noncommittal paragraphs. Drafts of the climate section show the White House sought to delete conclusions about human contributions to warming from a 2001 National Research Council report endorsed by President Bush. The White House also removed a reference to a 1999 study showing sharp temperature increases and replaced it with a reference to a new study financed by the oil industry that questioned the earlier conclusion.
The document discusses how climate change will impact cities through increased temperatures, more extreme precipitation events, and sea level rise. It provides projections for temperature increases and precipitation changes in North America. Cities will experience more heat waves that may be exacerbated by urban heat islands. Coastal cities are particularly at risk from sea level rise. Effective adaptation strategies are needed to reduce risks and increase resilience of cities.
The document discusses how to build adaptive capacity to climate change in the UK. It provides an overview of the UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) which aims to help organizations adapt to climate change impacts through research partnerships and capacity building programs. It summarizes projections from UK Climate Projections including higher temperatures, more extreme weather events, and sea level rise. It also outlines impacts to consider for business and infrastructure planning like disruption from flooding and heat waves.
The document defines and compares weather and climate. Weather is defined as the short-term atmospheric conditions of an area, such as temperature, wind speed, and precipitation. Climate is defined as the average weather conditions over a long period of time, such as the typical hot summers and cold winters of Alaska. Several factors that influence both weather and climate are discussed, including temperature, ocean currents, winds, and altitude.
How climate data can help address the climate challengeEsri UK
Climate change has already altered the weather we experience and the magnitude of impacts from extreme temperatures and rainfall. These impacts manifest locally and can cause human causalities and damage to infrastructure and natural systems. In future, some further climate change is now inevitable, but the rate and magnitude of change will depend on global greenhouse gas emissions. New data and tools to use the data are available to help plot a path through the climate and weather challenges, enabling organisations at all scales to adapt to the changing conditions.
On June 14, 2019 ICLR conducted a Friday Forum webinar led by Dr. Nathan Gillett and Dr. Xuebin Zhang. This report is about how and why Canada’s climate has changed and what changes are projected for the future. Led by Environment and Climate Change Canada, this document is the first of a series to be released as part of Canada in a Changing Climate: Advancing our Knowledge for Action. It documents changes across Canada in temperature, precipitation, snow, ice, and permafrost, freshwater availability as well as in Canada’s three oceans. It can be viewed at www.changingclimate.ca/CCCR2019
Dr. Nathan Gillett is a Research Scientist at the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis in Environment and Climate Change Canada’s Climate Research Division. His research is focused on understanding and attribution of climate change. He is a Coordinating Lead Author of the chapter “Human influence on the climate system” of the upcoming IPCC Working Group I Sixth Assessment Report, and he served as a Lead Author of the IPCC Fourth and Fifth Assessment Reports. Dr. Gillett has a PhD in atmospheric physics from the University of Oxford.
Dr. Xuebin Zhang is a senior research scientist with Environment and Climate Change Canada’s Climate Research Division. His main research focus is past and future changes in weather and climate extremes. He was a lead author for the IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation and IPCC Working Group I Fifth Assessment Report. He is a Coordinating Lead Author of the climate extremes chapter in the IPCC Working Group I Sixth Assessment Report. Dr. Zhang has a background in engineering hydrology. He received a PhD degree in Physics (Climatology) from University of Lisbon, Portugal.
This document summarizes a presentation about using information and communication technologies (ICT) to adapt to rather than mitigate global warming. Some key points:
- Mitigation efforts alone will not be enough to address climate change, and adaptation strategies are now needed to survive the impacts.
- ICT sector growth is contributing to energy demand and emissions but can also provide solutions if designed to use renewable energy not connected to the grid.
- Examples of ICT adaptation solutions proposed include building an "Energy Internet" and moving data centers to remote renewable energy sites instead of cities.
- Rewarding carbon reductions through ICT services like broadband could be an alternative to carbon taxes.
Climate change is increasing temperatures globally and affecting weather patterns. In Wales, summers are projected to become drier and winters wetter by 2080. Sea levels around Wales are also expected to rise 30-40cm, increasing flood risk to coastal areas like the Severn Estuary. Adapting to climate change requires considering impacts to health, infrastructure, natural resources and more. Education resources aim to improve awareness and skills for teaching about climate change.
This is the slidshow that I use for climate change extension. I am currently involved in the National Drought Pilot Program, giving the overview of climate, climate change and agronomic decisions related to it. There is a lot I discuss that isn\'t in the slides, but these highlight my main points, which end at the "what have we learnt" slide.
Presentation given by Dr EJ Anthony from Cranfield University about Direct Air Capture at the UKCCSRC Direct Air Capture/Negative Emissions Workshop held in London on 18 March 2014
This document summarizes key findings from the IPCC report on the physical science of climate change. It finds that increases in greenhouse gases like CO2 and methane are extremely likely due to human activity since 1750 and are causing the planet to warm. Global temperatures and sea levels have risen over the past century and models project further increases of 1-6°C and 0.3-0.8 meters respectively by 2100 depending on emissions scenarios. While uncertainty remains, effects like more extreme heat waves are very likely to continue worsening if emissions are not reduced.
This powerpoint presentation is produced by IPCC Working Group I for outreach purposes. It is based on the figures and approved text from the Working Group I Summary for Policymakers with some additional information on the process. The IPCC Working Group I website www.climatechange2013.org provides comprehensive access to all products generated by Working Group I during the fifth assessment cycle of the IPCC.
Global warming is occurring due to increasing greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide and methane in the atmosphere. The average global temperature has already risen 0.8 degrees Celsius since 1750 and is projected to increase another 1.5 degrees by 2100 if greenhouse gas emissions are not reduced. Long-term temperature records from ice cores and other scientific studies indicate that recent warming is occurring much faster than any natural temperature changes in the last 2,000 years. Continued climate change is expected to have significant environmental, economic, and social impacts around the world.
CSCR Agriculture Track w/ Larry Klotz: Weather or Not - Effects of Changing W...Sustainable Tompkins
Climate Smart & Climate Ready Conference Agriculture Track on April 19, 2013 at NYS Grange in Cortland, NY. Prof. Larry Klotz, SUNY Cortland. Weather or Not: Effects of Changing Weather on Local Agriculture. What is climate change? What are regional implications?
Are ‘little ice ages’ and ‘megadroughts’ possible?
Scientists are investigating whether changes in ocean circu- lation may have played a role in causing or amplifying the “Little Ice Age” between 1300 and 1850. This period of abruptly shift- ing climate regimes and more severe winters had profound agri- cultural, economic, and political impacts in Europe and North America and changed the course of history.
The document discusses a Senate committee hearing on climate change where administration officials agreed that human activities are largely responsible for recent climate changes but rejected mandating drastic reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. The officials proposed reducing US emissions intensity by 18% in 10 years rather than absolute reductions, but critics said this would allow emissions to increase. The document included a forwarded email with an attached report on the administration's climate change plans.
Global warming is caused primarily by human-induced increases in greenhouse gases from burning fossil fuels and deforestation. The planet's average surface temperature has risen about 1°C since 1900, with about two-thirds of the increase occurring since 1980. If emissions continue at a high rate, global temperatures could increase by 2.4-6.4°C by 2100. Impacts are already apparent and include sea level rise, extreme weather events, and species extinction. Mitigating emissions through policy changes aims to limit further warming to under 2°C.
1) Several US politicians wrote to President Bush expressing concern over his dismissal of a recent UN report on climate change submitted by the US.
2) The letter asks Bush to clarify if he agrees with several key conclusions and statements from the report, including that human activities are causing global warming and increased US emissions.
3) If Bush agrees with the report, the letter states that stronger action is needed than currently proposed to address the pressing problem of climate change.
Climate Ready Boston: Projection Consensus Summary Patrick Murray
The document summarizes climate projections for Boston from a working group of regional climate scientists. It finds that Boston will see increasing extreme temperatures, heavy precipitation, and sea level rise over the course of the 21st century depending on global greenhouse gas emission levels. Temperatures are projected to rise by over 10 degrees Fahrenheit by 2100 under a high emissions scenario, bringing many more days over 90 degrees each summer. Sea level is projected to rise up to 4 feet by 2070 and over 7 feet by 2100 under a high emissions scenario, increasing coastal flooding and beach erosion. Heavy rainfall events are also expected to continue increasing in frequency and intensity.
1) Senior Bush administration officials agreed that climate changes over the past decades were probably due to human greenhouse gas emissions but that mandating drastic reductions was not appropriate.
2) The administration's goal is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions intensity in the US economy by 18% over the next 10 years, but critics say this does not require actual emissions reductions as total emissions grew 12% from 1990 to 1999 while intensity dropped 17%.
3) A report from the National Wildlife Federation said the administration's plan would allow faster greenhouse gas pollution growth than if current trends continued.
Climate Change Basics: Issues and Impacts for BoatingNASBLA
State Climatologist David Zierden presented Climate Change Basics: Issues and Impacts for Boating to the National Association of State Boating Law Administrators on September 9, 2008
This document is an email from 2003 discussing edits made by the White House to an EPA report on the state of the environment. The White House removed a section on risks from rising global temperatures, leaving only a few noncommittal paragraphs. Drafts of the climate section show the White House sought to delete conclusions about human contributions to warming from a 2001 National Research Council report endorsed by President Bush. The White House also removed a reference to a 1999 study showing sharp temperature increases and replaced it with a reference to a new study financed by the oil industry that questioned the earlier conclusion.
The document discusses how climate change will impact cities through increased temperatures, more extreme precipitation events, and sea level rise. It provides projections for temperature increases and precipitation changes in North America. Cities will experience more heat waves that may be exacerbated by urban heat islands. Coastal cities are particularly at risk from sea level rise. Effective adaptation strategies are needed to reduce risks and increase resilience of cities.
The document discusses how to build adaptive capacity to climate change in the UK. It provides an overview of the UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) which aims to help organizations adapt to climate change impacts through research partnerships and capacity building programs. It summarizes projections from UK Climate Projections including higher temperatures, more extreme weather events, and sea level rise. It also outlines impacts to consider for business and infrastructure planning like disruption from flooding and heat waves.
The document defines and compares weather and climate. Weather is defined as the short-term atmospheric conditions of an area, such as temperature, wind speed, and precipitation. Climate is defined as the average weather conditions over a long period of time, such as the typical hot summers and cold winters of Alaska. Several factors that influence both weather and climate are discussed, including temperature, ocean currents, winds, and altitude.
How climate data can help address the climate challengeEsri UK
Climate change has already altered the weather we experience and the magnitude of impacts from extreme temperatures and rainfall. These impacts manifest locally and can cause human causalities and damage to infrastructure and natural systems. In future, some further climate change is now inevitable, but the rate and magnitude of change will depend on global greenhouse gas emissions. New data and tools to use the data are available to help plot a path through the climate and weather challenges, enabling organisations at all scales to adapt to the changing conditions.
On June 14, 2019 ICLR conducted a Friday Forum webinar led by Dr. Nathan Gillett and Dr. Xuebin Zhang. This report is about how and why Canada’s climate has changed and what changes are projected for the future. Led by Environment and Climate Change Canada, this document is the first of a series to be released as part of Canada in a Changing Climate: Advancing our Knowledge for Action. It documents changes across Canada in temperature, precipitation, snow, ice, and permafrost, freshwater availability as well as in Canada’s three oceans. It can be viewed at www.changingclimate.ca/CCCR2019
Dr. Nathan Gillett is a Research Scientist at the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis in Environment and Climate Change Canada’s Climate Research Division. His research is focused on understanding and attribution of climate change. He is a Coordinating Lead Author of the chapter “Human influence on the climate system” of the upcoming IPCC Working Group I Sixth Assessment Report, and he served as a Lead Author of the IPCC Fourth and Fifth Assessment Reports. Dr. Gillett has a PhD in atmospheric physics from the University of Oxford.
Dr. Xuebin Zhang is a senior research scientist with Environment and Climate Change Canada’s Climate Research Division. His main research focus is past and future changes in weather and climate extremes. He was a lead author for the IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation and IPCC Working Group I Fifth Assessment Report. He is a Coordinating Lead Author of the climate extremes chapter in the IPCC Working Group I Sixth Assessment Report. Dr. Zhang has a background in engineering hydrology. He received a PhD degree in Physics (Climatology) from University of Lisbon, Portugal.
This document summarizes a presentation about using information and communication technologies (ICT) to adapt to rather than mitigate global warming. Some key points:
- Mitigation efforts alone will not be enough to address climate change, and adaptation strategies are now needed to survive the impacts.
- ICT sector growth is contributing to energy demand and emissions but can also provide solutions if designed to use renewable energy not connected to the grid.
- Examples of ICT adaptation solutions proposed include building an "Energy Internet" and moving data centers to remote renewable energy sites instead of cities.
- Rewarding carbon reductions through ICT services like broadband could be an alternative to carbon taxes.
Climate change is increasing temperatures globally and affecting weather patterns. In Wales, summers are projected to become drier and winters wetter by 2080. Sea levels around Wales are also expected to rise 30-40cm, increasing flood risk to coastal areas like the Severn Estuary. Adapting to climate change requires considering impacts to health, infrastructure, natural resources and more. Education resources aim to improve awareness and skills for teaching about climate change.
This is the slidshow that I use for climate change extension. I am currently involved in the National Drought Pilot Program, giving the overview of climate, climate change and agronomic decisions related to it. There is a lot I discuss that isn\'t in the slides, but these highlight my main points, which end at the "what have we learnt" slide.
Presentation given by Dr EJ Anthony from Cranfield University about Direct Air Capture at the UKCCSRC Direct Air Capture/Negative Emissions Workshop held in London on 18 March 2014
Climate change and extreme weather events can significantly impact energy infrastructure in three main ways:
1. Extraction and resources are threatened by rising sea levels, melting permafrost, and flooding which can damage offshore oil/gas rigs, mines, and disrupt supply chains.
2. Conversion processes from different sources like thermal, nuclear, and hydro face efficiency losses from higher temperatures, drought, and flooding which can force shutdowns.
3. Transmission and distribution networks are vulnerable to weather damage from high winds, flooding, lightning, and overheating which causes blackouts.
The economic costs of not adapting energy systems to these impacts include physical damage, lost output, higher prices, and macroeconomic losses
IPCC from AR5 to AR6 - WGI Perspectives - by Panmao Zhai, Co-Chair of WGIipcc-media
This document summarizes the key changes from the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) to the upcoming Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) on climate change. It notes that AR5 had 14 chapters and over 1,500 pages, but did not adequately cover regional projections or linkages to impacts. The proposed outline for AR6 features 12 chapters that place greater emphasis on regional climate change, short-lived climate pollutants, and connections across working groups. The goal is to provide more detailed and policy-relevant information to inform adaptation and mitigation efforts.
This document provides an introduction to climate change, discussing the greenhouse effect, historical and projected changes in temperature and precipitation for Wisconsin. It notes that Wisconsin's climate is already changing, with a 1-1.5°F warming since 1950 and longer growing seasons. Projections suggest further warming of around 10°F by 2090, along with more frequent extreme weather events and more winter precipitation falling as rain rather than snow. The risks of these changes to areas like agriculture, forestry and human health are also summarized.
An entry-level presentation on climate risk and scenarios. I discuss mainly the key concepts.
I was one of the speakers at this event https://www.regjeringen.no/no/aktuelt/klimarisiko-og-rapportering-i-norske-selskaper/id2828115/, and my presentation is available https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_S7n7GV8umI
New business opportunities with zero carbon thinking and how California suburban lifestyle may be the answer to global warming and the need to adapt to a warmer climate through IT - the Energy Internet
Emissions slowdown: Are we on the way to 2°C?Glen Peters
A presentation to Industrial Ecology students at the Institute of Environmental Sciences (CML) at Leiden University, at the invitation of Rene Kleijn. I discuss recent trends in CO2 emissions, and link the recent slowdown to emission scenarios. I then go through some key features of 2C scenarios and implications for policy. In the presentation I did not get a chance to present the new scenarios, Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), or on stranded assets, but the slides are still included.
Climate change - environmental systems and change.Hunter Strike
1) The document discusses evidence of past climate change from various proxy records like tree rings, ice cores, fossils, and historical paintings. It also examines factors that can influence the climate like solar activity, volcanic eruptions, greenhouse gases, and human activities.
2) Climate models project further warming in the coming decades and centuries depending on greenhouse gas emission scenarios, but they have uncertainties regarding changes in extreme events and regional impacts.
3) The climate system is complex and influenced by both natural and human factors interacting across different timescales, making both past and future climate changes difficult to predict precisely.
Evaluating and communicating Arctic climate change projectionZachary Labe
20 February 2023…
Climate Change and Agriculture Guest (Presentation): Evaluating and communicating Arctic climate change projections, Kansas State University, USA.
References...
Delworth, T. L., Cooke, W. F., Adcroft, A., Bushuk, M., Chen, J. H., Dunne, K. A., ... & Zhao, M. (2020). SPEAR: The next generation GFDL modeling system for seasonal to multidecadal prediction and projection. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 12(3), e2019MS001895, https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019MS001895
Labe, Z.M. and E.A. Barnes (2022), Comparison of climate model large ensembles with observations in the Arctic using simple neural networks. Earth and Space Science, DOI:10.1029/2022EA002348, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EA002348
Labe, Z.M., Y. Peings, and G. Magnusdottir (2020). Warm Arctic, cold Siberia pattern: role of full Arctic amplification versus sea ice loss alone, Geophysical Research Letters, DOI:10.1029/2020GL088583, https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020GL088583
Peings, Y., Cattiaux, J., Vavrus, S. J., & Magnusdottir, G. (2018). Projected squeezing of the wintertime North-Atlantic jet. Environmental Research Letters, 13(7), 074016, https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aacc79/meta
Southern California Edison has undertaken efforts to adapt to climate change by assessing vulnerabilities, addressing existing issues, integrating climate data into decisions, and communicating with customers. Key climate trends in SCE's service territory include increased temperatures, extreme heat days, wildfire risk, sea level rise threats to coastal infrastructure, and changes to water resources. SCE is analyzing these trends spatially and at the facility level to understand localized impacts and integrate climate projections into planning processes. Early lessons indicate infrastructure has built-in resiliency for near-term impacts, but collaboration is needed to address longer-term projected changes.
The document summarizes key findings from the IPCC 5th Assessment Report's Working Group 1 contribution on the physical science basis of climate change. It involved 259 authors from 39 countries, who found clear evidence that climate change poses a serious risk and is caused by human activity such as greenhouse gas emissions. If emissions continue at high levels, global temperatures will likely rise more than 2°C by 2100 and warming effects like sea level rise will be irreversible for hundreds of years. Immediate emissions reductions are required to limit global warming.
The document summarizes the key findings of the IPCC 5th Assessment Report from the Working Group I contribution on the physical science basis of climate change. It involved 259 authors from 39 countries, underwent extensive review by over 1000 experts, and assessed observed changes in the climate system, drivers of climate change, understanding of the climate system and projections for future climate change. The report found clear evidence that climate change poses a serious risk and is already affecting many natural and human systems across all continents and oceans.
Does an arbitrator with subject matter expertise get a better decisionGerald R. (Jerry) Genge
An arbitrator with subject matter expertise may be able to resolve technical disputes more efficiently than a judge without that expertise. They can directly question experts and have them work together to narrow disagreements. In cases the author was involved in, bringing all experts together under an arbitrator's guidance reduced the time to submit evidence by half and sometimes led to same-day settlements. While conventional legal processes uphold due process, cases overseen by an expert arbitrator can find resolutions more quickly with less spent on time and costs, while potentially arriving at better answers on liability and damages issues.
Lecture slides to M.A.Sc. students on pros and cons of various dispute resolution venues with a case study added that moved 10-year case from complaint to appeal court decision
The document discusses a case study that uses the PIEVC process to assess the effects of climate change on buildings. It summarizes the 5 steps of the PIEVC protocol: 1) define the project, 2) gather data, 3) assess risk, 4) engineering analysis, and 5) recommendations. It then provides details of steps 1-3 as applied to a sample 16-story residential building in Toronto, identifying key climate change risks like increased temperature, rainfall, and need for air conditioning. Components at medium-high risk included grounds/drainage, the building envelope, and mechanical drainage systems.
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1. Climate Change and Building
Codes
Gerald R. (Jerry) Genge
P.Eng., C.Eng., BDS, BSSO, C.Arb., Q.Med.
OBEC Monthly Meeting January 17, 2018
2. As written in a 1897 editorial in
the Hartford (Connecticut) Courant…largely and
incorrectly credited to Mark Twain, Charles Dudley
Warner is quoted as saying:
“A well known American writer said once that, while
everybody talked about the weather, nobody seemed
to do anything about it.”
Apparently, we can not say that any longer…..
3. In Case you haven’t heard…
Climate Change is a reality and there is data to
show that human influence has created the
differences.
Other regulations are attempting to mitigate causes of
Climate Change….
“Green Energy” Act, etc. but…
Unfortunately, today’s codes and standards do NOT
address design to accommodate Climate Change.
4.
5. The Canadian Government has
heard …
May 2016 Office of Auditor General report noted that:
“the National Building Code administered by the National
Research Council of Canada did not incorporate climate change
trends.”
“although the Commission used some climate load values in
developing the 2015 Code – such as snow load values – the current
approach to building design is based solely on historic data and
does not take into account climate change trends.”
NRCC agreed and is coordinating with Environment and Climate
Change Canada and Canadian Standards Association
6. Durability has had some traction…
OBC Part 5 has referenced CSA S478 “Guideline
for Durability in Buildings”…. but
The CSA Guideline, written in 1995 was focused
on building durability without considering
Climate Change as a “load”.
It is now being updated to include Climate
Change as a “load”.
7. Loads on a Building
Physical Loads (effects of rain, wind, snow, and
temperature on structural sufficiency at time of
design and construction - per Part 4 including
load factors)
Environmental Loads (effects of rain, wind,
snow, and temperature on building envelope
performance at the time of design and
construction – no load factors in OBC –
performance based on testing)
8. Resistance to Loads
Physical Loads… Design to Part 4/Part 9
Environmental Loads… Design to Part 5/Part 9
Deterioration … Effects of physical and
environmental loads over time – no criteria, no
load factors – no mandated standard – just the
CSA S478 Guideline (which is largely ignored )
Conceptually, what is the issue?
11. Resistance to Deterioration
Loads on a
population of
buildings
Designed Resistance
of a population of
buildings
Failure
Parameter
Frequency
12. Effect of Deterioration
Loads on a
population of
buildings
Decaying Resistance
of a population of
buildings
Parameter
Frequency
13. Effect of Deterioration
Loads on a
population of
buildings
Decaying Resistance
of a population of
buildings
Failure
Parameter
Frequency
14. Introduce Climate Change
Now the Loads are not considered to be
constant
Physical
Environmental, and
Deterioration
All are expected to change…
15. Effect of Climate Change
Loads on a
population of
buildings
Decaying Resistance
of a population of
buildings
Parameter
Frequency
16. Effect of Climate Change
Loads on a
population of
buildings
Decaying Resistance
of a population of
buildings
Parameter
Frequency
Some CC
Loads
may
decrease
17. Effect of Climate Change
Loads on a
population of
buildings
Decaying Resistance
of a population of
buildings
Parameter
Frequency
Failure
Some CC
Loads
may
decrease
18. Effect of Climate Change
Loads on a
population of
buildings
Decaying Resistance
of a population of
buildings
Parameter
Frequency
Failure
Some CC
Loads
may
decrease
19. Current State of Design…
Design criteria for Part 5 has always taken a
“rear view mirror” approach.
Climate Loads in NBC/OBC are derived for 50-
year historical data (now being updated but still
looking backward)
To accommodate or adapt to CC, building design
requires predictive data (Now being considered
as a mandate of the NBC)
20. Climate Change is the motivation
for…
Transformation from a CSA S478 Guideline into a
Standard
Incorporation of Climate Change Loads affecting
Durability into future building codes… but
Mandatory requirments will likely not become
mandatory until 2025
If we know….Why so slow?
We don’t know as much as we would like to know.
21. Environment and Climate Change
Canada Studies
(FormerlyEnvironmentCanada)…
ECCC has worked with other similar bodies globally to
create predictive models
… and has searched (for example) temperature records
as a foundation for promoting Climate Change research
e.g. CO2 and methane (GHG) trapped in ice cores
Here’s taste of what has been found…
32. Temperature
What we believe so far:
Research
Canada… 1950 to 2010 ↑ 1.5 C°
Twice that of global average
More prevalent in north and west
Predictions
to 2100 temp ↑ a further 1.5 to 2.5 Cᵒ in summer
to 2100 temp ↑ a further 3 to 7 C in winter
Potentially ↑ a further 9 Cᵒ in Hudson’s Bay and arctic for reduced sea
ice
1:20 year events will become 1:5 year events
Effects
↑ length, frequency and intensity of extremes (e.g. heat waves)
↑ more unusually warm days and nights
↓ fewer cooler days and nights
34. If we allow GHG to increase at
the highest predictive model
level:
• Over the next 20 to 50 years,
precipitation in coastal and
near coastal regions will
increase by 20 to 40%
• Over 50 to 80 years it will
increase by 60+%
[relative to 1986 – 2005]
35. Precipitation
Research
1950 to 2010 ↑ 16% …Mostly in Coastal Canada
Mostly in Spring and Fall
↓ in winter in Western Canada .. But due to decreased snowfall rather
than decreased rainfall
Predictions (CC models not as good as those for Temp)
Predictions are more variable but ↑ in all areas except Southern Canada
Except for Southern Canada most indicate shifts in wet and dry
extremes
1:20 events to be 1:10 by 2050 and increasing in frequency to 2100
Effects
↑ flooding and also ↑ droughts
↑ moisture load on buildings
Uncertain effects from more severe regional weather events
37. Snow
Research
Western Canada: decreased winter precipitation (snowfall) rather than
a decrease in rainfall
Average annual snowfall across Canada has decreased by about 4%,
North and Atlantic regions have seen increasing trends in snowfall but
are extreme events not gradual accumulations of snow.
In recent years, rain on snow events have increased along with the
density of the snowpack.
Predictions (CC models not reliable as yet)
Snow season length and snow depths will likely decrease over most of
North America,
BUT, maximum snow depths and extreme snow storms could increase
even in the southern parts of Canada due to increased precipitation
Effects
↑ snow loads and possible damage
39. Wind
Research
Not much good historic data available because:…
Too few stations
Variation in equipment and capability (varying sensitivity and
extremes not logged)
Variable height of recording values
Shorter periods of records
Predictions (CC models not reliable as yet)
↑ gusting – (10% more hourly gusts in the 28 to 70 km/h
range)
Double the number of gusts > 90 km/h
Effects
↑ wind damage due to ↑ gust pressure
40. Other CC Parameters
(for Building Envelope Design)
Temperature
Precipitation
Snow
Wind
Wind-Driven rain
Freeze-Thaw Cycles
Severe Ice Storms
UV Radiation
41. Wind-Driven Rain
Research
Currently use DRWP taken at 10 m coincident with
1:5 year wind
Predictions (CC models not reliable as yet)
↑ gusting > 70 km/h with increased rain days/year would
↑ the DRWP by 2050
Effects
↑ incidence of leaking
42. Freeze-Thaw Cycles
Research
Modelling not good at or near freezing point
Predictions (CC models not reliable as yet)
↑ in F/T cycles in short term as overall temp increases
↓ in F/T cycles by 2050 as temp continues to increase
Effects
↑ incidence of F/T damage in near future
↓ in F/T cycles and potential damage later
43. Severe Ice Storms
Research
Unique meteorological conditions produce ice accretion
Predictions (CC models not able to predict freezing rain as yet)
Effects
↑ physical load
↑ falling ice risk
44. UV Radiation
Research
UV-B component damages synthetic building materials such
as plastics as well as natural wood and rubber
Predictions (CC models not able to predict UV as yet)
Further Ozone depletion will increase UV radiation
Effects
↓ service life of affected materials
45. What else would we like to know to
better design for Climate Change?
46. Temperature
For A/C and structural requirements
# days/year >30°C, >35°C, etc.
30-year extreme high temp
Cooling Deg. Days
For heating and structural requirements
# days/year < -20°C, < -30°C, < -40°C
30-year extreme low temp
For Ventilation and fire safety design
Impact on air buoyancy and stack effect
47. Precipitation (Rain and Snow)
Rain frequency, intensity and duration
Snow frequency, intensity and duration
Freeze/Thaw events & cycles
# wet days per year
Exterior air moisture
Extreme annual precipitation
# days/year > 25 mm rainfall
Maximum consecutive dry days/year
# days/year with severe ice storms (freezing
rain) > 4 hrs, > 6 hrs, etc.
48. Wind-Related Parameters
Average # hours/year with gusts
> 70, > 80, > 90 km/h, etc.
Extreme wind pressure due to localized or
unusual events
Hurricane and/or tornado event frequency /
intensity
Convective winds from severe thunderstorms
Sidewalk level wind effects
49. Design… yes… but
Who else is listening?
Since the IPCC has made several statements on
Climate change.. Like…
“Warming of the climate system is unequivocal
… the atmosphere and ocean have warmed,
the amounts of snow and ice have diminished,
and the sea level has risen”
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC)
50. Financial Institutions are Taking
Note
“The combination of the weight of scientific
evidence and the dynamics of the financial system
suggest that, in the fullness of time, climate change
will threaten financial resilience and longer-term
prosperity. While there is still time to act, the
window of opportunity is finite and shrinking.”
Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England
51. Financial Institutions May Decide
Though no announced protocol exists…Funding
for mortgages and refinancing of:
Resource development, manufacturing, and other
business that are carbon intensive may not be a
good investment risk
Building projects with no risk management plan
may not be as attractive an investment
54. Overall What will Codes have to
Address
1. Acknowledge that Climate Loads will change and these will
require site-specific modeling and design based on available
information,
2. Building Resistance will change due to resilience issues which
will (in near-future codes), be a design requirement,
3. Future, codes (should) require designers to make an
assessment of “Vulnerability” of Building Components to
changes in Load and Resistance. e.g. (PIEVC or other risk
assessment protocol).
55. Other Issues to Address
1. Catastrophic events (which designers may not be able to
accommodate in building design) may create large, uninsured
losses.
2. Designers and codes should consider where buildings are sited,
what the impact of an extreme event may be on the building,
and how the building can recover from such an event.
3. Design codes and standards take a long time to catch up to
available knowledge.
56. Other Issues to Address
Regardless of the glacial pace of codes and standards, design
information will be coming available and liability for building
performance will be attached to that knowledge (or lack thereof)
As my family moto says….Prima Prepara Domum
Which means “first protect the home” a.k.a
“Cover your Ass(ets)”