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Climate Change and Health With special reference to risks facing small island-states Anthony J McMichael National Centre for Epidemiology & Population Health The Australian National University Canberra, ACT 0200
Climate Change: the “debate” ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Kilimanjaro 1970
Kilimanjaro 2000 Ice on Kilimanjaro 0 5 10 15 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 Year Area (km 2 )
Climate Change: Basic Issues ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 One Earth is available (The planet’s total bio-capacity = 1.0) Number of Earths  used by humanity Based on Wackernagel et al, 2002 Number of Earths 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s
From: Steffen et al. In press 2004 Atmos CO 2   conc Domesticated land Loss of trop forest, woodland Coastal shrimp farms Fully exploited fisheries Climate disasters Av surface temp (NH) Atmos ozone loss Atmos CH 4   conc Atmos N 2 O conc Coastal N 2  flux  Global biodiversity Changes in environmental indicators, 1750 - 2000
20 15 1900 2100 2000 14 16 17 18 13 19 Average Global Temperature ( O C) Year 2050 1950 1860 This presents a rate-of-change problem for many natural systems/processes Band of historical  climatic variability IPCC (2001) estimates a 1.4-5.8  o C increase Low High Central estimate = 2.5  o C  (plus increased variability)
Sea-level rise over coming centuries   following 70 years of excess greenhouse gas emissions 200 400 600 800 Time from start (years) 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 Sea-level rise (m) Total sea level rise Ocean Expansion Ice-melt Greenhouse gas emissions (“super-Kyoto” action) IPCC 2001 IPCC, 2001 Sea-Level Rise, over the coming millennium Peaking in 2050
SLR Risks to Small Island-States ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Health effects Temperature - related illness and death Extreme weather - related health effects Air pollution - related health effects Water and food - borne diseases Vector borne and  rodent borne diseases Health Effects Temperature-related illness and death Air pollution-related health effects Human  exposures Regional weather changes • Heat waves • Extreme weather • Temperature • Precipitation Regional weather changes • Heat waves • Extreme weather • Temperature • ,[object Object],Extreme weather- related (floods, storms, etc.) health effects Contamination pathways Transmission dynamics - - - - rodent Microbial changes:  Contamination paths Transmission dynamics Water and food-borne diseases Vector borne and  borne diseases Climate  Change Climate  Change Changes in agro-ecosystems, hydrology Socioeconomic and demographic disruption Effects of food and water shortages Mental, nutritional, infectious-disease and other effects Modulating influences
ENSO and climate change ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
VECTOR-BORNE DISEASE
1990 2085 Estimated population at risk of dengue fever under “standard” climate change scenario:  1990,  2085 Source.  Hales S et al.  Lancet (online) 6 August 2002.  http://image.thelancet.com/extras/01art11175web.pdf   .
Baseline   2000 Courtesy:  Kris Ebi Modelling Malaria Transmissibility in Zimbabwe. I
Baseline   2000   2025 Courtesy:  Kris Ebi Modelling Malaria Transmissibility in Zimbabwe. II
Baseline   2000   2025   2050 Courtesy:  Kris Ebi Modelling Malaria Transmissibility in Zimbabwe. III
What Should Health Ministries Do? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
That’s All
Global average temperature ( o C) over the past millennium
The International Energy Agency predicts that the increase in greenhouse gas emissions from 2000 to 2030 in China alone will almost equal the increase from the entire industrialized world. China is the world's second largest emitter of such gases, after the United States – even though China's per-person emissions are, for example, still only one-eighth of those in the United States.  GHG: Coming Decades
From: Steffen et al. 2003 Population Total real GDP Foreign direct investment Damming of rivers Fertiliser consumption Motor vehicles Water use MacDonalds Restaurants Urban population International tourism
Climate change impacts on rain-fed cereal production, 2080  (IIASA:  Fischer et al, 2001) Need to convert estimates of regional food yields into estimates of changes in numbers of malnourished people
Darwin Katherine Cairns Mackay Rockhampton Townsville Port Headland Broome . . . . . . . . Brisbane . Model Estimate: Current Dengue Risk Region NCEPH/CSIRO/BoM, 2003 Dengue Fever: Estimated geographic region suitable for maintenance of  Ae. aegypti , alternative climate scenarios for 2050 Scenario: A1F1 (high) CSIROMK2 Darwin Katherine Cairns Mackay Rockhampton Townsville Port Headland Broome . . . . . . . . Carnarvon . Scenario:  A1B (mid) CSIROMK2 Darwin Katherine Cairns Mackay Rockhampton Townsville Port Headland Broome . . . . . . . . Carnarvon .
Categories of climate extremes ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
IPCC WORKING GROUP I, Third Assessment Report, 2001 Likely, over some areas Insufficient data Increase in tropical cyclone mean and peak precipitation intensities Likely, over some areas Not observed in the few analysis available Increase in tropical cyclone peak wind intensities Likely, over most mid-latitude continental interiors. Likely, in a few areas Increased summer continental drying and associated risk of drought Very likely Likely,  (N mid to high latitudes) More intense precipitation events Very likely Likely Increase of heat index over land areas Very likely Very likely Higher minimum temperatures,  - fewer cold days and frost days Very likely Likely Higher maximum temperatures  - more hot days Probability of projected changes  to 2100 Confidence in observed changes (latter half of 1900s) Changes in climatic phenomenon

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Children's_environmental_health_climate-change

  • 1. Climate Change and Health With special reference to risks facing small island-states Anthony J McMichael National Centre for Epidemiology & Population Health The Australian National University Canberra, ACT 0200
  • 2.
  • 4. Kilimanjaro 2000 Ice on Kilimanjaro 0 5 10 15 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 Year Area (km 2 )
  • 5.
  • 6. 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 One Earth is available (The planet’s total bio-capacity = 1.0) Number of Earths used by humanity Based on Wackernagel et al, 2002 Number of Earths 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s
  • 7. From: Steffen et al. In press 2004 Atmos CO 2 conc Domesticated land Loss of trop forest, woodland Coastal shrimp farms Fully exploited fisheries Climate disasters Av surface temp (NH) Atmos ozone loss Atmos CH 4 conc Atmos N 2 O conc Coastal N 2 flux Global biodiversity Changes in environmental indicators, 1750 - 2000
  • 8. 20 15 1900 2100 2000 14 16 17 18 13 19 Average Global Temperature ( O C) Year 2050 1950 1860 This presents a rate-of-change problem for many natural systems/processes Band of historical climatic variability IPCC (2001) estimates a 1.4-5.8 o C increase Low High Central estimate = 2.5 o C (plus increased variability)
  • 9. Sea-level rise over coming centuries following 70 years of excess greenhouse gas emissions 200 400 600 800 Time from start (years) 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 Sea-level rise (m) Total sea level rise Ocean Expansion Ice-melt Greenhouse gas emissions (“super-Kyoto” action) IPCC 2001 IPCC, 2001 Sea-Level Rise, over the coming millennium Peaking in 2050
  • 10.
  • 11.
  • 12.
  • 14. 1990 2085 Estimated population at risk of dengue fever under “standard” climate change scenario: 1990, 2085 Source. Hales S et al. Lancet (online) 6 August 2002. http://image.thelancet.com/extras/01art11175web.pdf .
  • 15. Baseline 2000 Courtesy: Kris Ebi Modelling Malaria Transmissibility in Zimbabwe. I
  • 16. Baseline 2000 2025 Courtesy: Kris Ebi Modelling Malaria Transmissibility in Zimbabwe. II
  • 17. Baseline 2000 2025 2050 Courtesy: Kris Ebi Modelling Malaria Transmissibility in Zimbabwe. III
  • 18.
  • 20. Global average temperature ( o C) over the past millennium
  • 21. The International Energy Agency predicts that the increase in greenhouse gas emissions from 2000 to 2030 in China alone will almost equal the increase from the entire industrialized world. China is the world's second largest emitter of such gases, after the United States – even though China's per-person emissions are, for example, still only one-eighth of those in the United States. GHG: Coming Decades
  • 22. From: Steffen et al. 2003 Population Total real GDP Foreign direct investment Damming of rivers Fertiliser consumption Motor vehicles Water use MacDonalds Restaurants Urban population International tourism
  • 23. Climate change impacts on rain-fed cereal production, 2080 (IIASA: Fischer et al, 2001) Need to convert estimates of regional food yields into estimates of changes in numbers of malnourished people
  • 24. Darwin Katherine Cairns Mackay Rockhampton Townsville Port Headland Broome . . . . . . . . Brisbane . Model Estimate: Current Dengue Risk Region NCEPH/CSIRO/BoM, 2003 Dengue Fever: Estimated geographic region suitable for maintenance of Ae. aegypti , alternative climate scenarios for 2050 Scenario: A1F1 (high) CSIROMK2 Darwin Katherine Cairns Mackay Rockhampton Townsville Port Headland Broome . . . . . . . . Carnarvon . Scenario: A1B (mid) CSIROMK2 Darwin Katherine Cairns Mackay Rockhampton Townsville Port Headland Broome . . . . . . . . Carnarvon .
  • 25.
  • 26. IPCC WORKING GROUP I, Third Assessment Report, 2001 Likely, over some areas Insufficient data Increase in tropical cyclone mean and peak precipitation intensities Likely, over some areas Not observed in the few analysis available Increase in tropical cyclone peak wind intensities Likely, over most mid-latitude continental interiors. Likely, in a few areas Increased summer continental drying and associated risk of drought Very likely Likely, (N mid to high latitudes) More intense precipitation events Very likely Likely Increase of heat index over land areas Very likely Very likely Higher minimum temperatures, - fewer cold days and frost days Very likely Likely Higher maximum temperatures - more hot days Probability of projected changes to 2100 Confidence in observed changes (latter half of 1900s) Changes in climatic phenomenon