The document discusses linking early warning systems to Ethiopia's Productive Safety Net Programme (PSNP) through a pilot project. The project provided PSNP households with weather forecasts so they could adjust agricultural practices and reduce climate risks. Results showed households changed planting dates, varieties, and labor use, improving food availability and security. The summary concludes the pilot demonstrated linking early warning systems enhanced food security and resilience, and should be expanded to more households.

1. Bilateral Ethiopian-Netherlands Effort for Food, Income and
Trade Partnership, Realising Sustainable Agricultural
Livelihood Security in Ethiopia (BENEFIT-REALISE)
Afework H. Mesfin, Kidane G., Yikunoamlak T., Teklit Y., Habte W.,
Mekelle University, BENEFIT-REALISE (MU)
Tewodros T., Mulugeta D., PMU, BENEFIT, REALISE
Remko V., Confidence D., Wageningen University and Research (WUR)
Negasi T., Relief Society of Tigray (REST)
Dargie F., Tigray Meteorology Service Center (TMSC)
Linking Early Warning Systems to the
Productive Safety Net Programme in Ethiopia
The Horn of Africa and Sahel Knowledge Share Fair
October 22, 2020

2. Context: Agriculture and Climate in Ethiopia
• Agriculture is the main sources of livelihood in Ethiopia.
• Productivity constrained due to climate variability,
unpredictable and aberrant weather and pervasive
production risks
• Tigray region is one of the most affected by recurrent
drought and chronic food insecurity, with a low average
energy supply, resulting in undernourishment.
• Seasonal rainfall is highly variable during June and
September along central, eastern, and southern zones,
and the Southern Zone of Tigray is among the most food
insecure woredas.
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3. Context: Ethiopia’s Social Protection System
• The GoE has a robust social protection system, with
the Productive Safety Net Programme (PSNP) as
one of central pillars.
• The PSNP supports vulnelrable households
through:
Cash transfers
Cash payments for public works projects
Links beneficiaries to livelihood and skills development
• This aims to benefit nearly 8 million chronically
food insecure people across 10 regions.
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4. Context: PSNP + Early Warning System Pilot
REALISE launched a pilot study to link the Early Warning System
to PSNP households, facilitating timely access to weather
forecast information, and technical support for farmers.
• Stakeholders: PSNP, farmers, REST, BoA, TMSC, MU, NGOs
• Results expected:
• Access to weather information expected to enable the farmers to
adjust farming practices to avoid climate risks and reduce negative
impacts on food and livelihood security.
• Monitoring:
– Adopted Participatory Scenario Planning (PSP) to track the change
in farming decisions by smallholders due to access to weather
information.
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5. Where we work
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The BENEFIT – REALISE Mekelle cluster is working in ten PSNP woredas of the Tigray
region, 40 kebeles ;
The pilot is in Emba Alaje and Enda Mehoni woredas in six kebeles
Ahferom
Emba Alaje
Endamehoni
Degua Temben
Hawzien
Ganta Afeshum
Ofla
Sae’sie Tseda
Emba
Raya Azebo
Raya Alamata

6. Implementation and methodological approach
• The rainfall forecast for May 2019 was used to
identify potential hazards and risks using
Participatory Scenario planning (PSP)
• Farmers were provided technical support in
response to forecasts e.g:
• Above normal rainfall: Planting late maturing varieties,
using SWC activities to reduce run-off, preparing
drainage to avoid water logging, local varieties
adaptable to both high and low rainfall intensities)
• Below normal rainfall: Identification of early maturing
varieties, water harvesting, SWC, diversion etc.
• Other management practices: adjusting planting date,
seeding rate and fertilizer rate application.
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7. Discussion with
youth group-
Problem
Ranking
Discussion with
women group
Transect walk
Problem Identification and validation
Rainfall shortage ranked no. 1 problem during ranking exercise

8. Piloting Process of linking EWS to PSNP beneficiaries
System Innovation
Selection
of PSNP
and
recommen
dations
Identification of
local & scientific
innovations/
practices
Piloting of
weather
information
dissemination
Categorizing
communities
based on socio –
economic status
Matching
problems
with best fit
practices
and
innovation
(PSP)
Problem &
opportunity
identification
PRA,
Baseline
and
scoping
study
 Steps for planning and implementation of the pilot
Implementation…..

9. Implementation…..
 Sensitization and joint planning
workshop organized.
 Baseline data collected on the
planned farming practices before
the PSNP HHs got access to
weather information
 The forecasted rainfall was 25%,
35% and 40% above normal,
normal and below normal
respectively.
Picture
here

10. Key activities / methodology
 Based on the rainfall scenario the
potential hazards, risks and
opportunities were identified
 Community Facilitators (CF) hired
by REST disseminated the
weather information starting from
June and continued every two
weeks
 Finally, end line data was collected
from the same households to
track the changes
A total of 120 HHs had participated
in the piloting
Picture
here

11. Impacts
 Changed decision making process in farming practices of the
PSNP households
● Adjusting planting dates
● Increased fertilizer rate application
● Decreased the seeding rate of the crops
● Increased varietal portfolio
● Changed varietal use based on the weather forecast
● Enhanced labor use efficiency
● Decreased plowing frequency
● Changing weeding frequency

12. Impacts
Increasing coping and adaptation strategies to
weather related risks and hazards, including:
● Physical soil and water conservation structures
● Plant trees
● Off-farm activities
● Borrowed from traders, buying grain, storage, and
providing supplementary feed for livestock
● Savings

13. Impacts
 Livestock asset depletion is reduced due to access to
weather information.
 Promotion of weather information has reduced weather
induced risks and hazards by changing the agronomic
practices and labor use.
 The main sources of seeds were informal seed systems
like saved seeds; the thrust in intermediate and formal
seed systems had also increased

14. Impacts
 Enhanced the annual food
availability of the PSNP
households. Eg.
● Food insecure-791.69
kcal/day
● Transitory-1590.79 kcal/day
● Food secure 3396.56 kcal/day
● Average-2355.56 kcal/day

15. Impacts
 Enhanced food security status of the PSNP households;
more than half of the PSNP households have secured
annual food requirement for their households
 While 30% transitory and 19% food insecure

16. Successes and challenges of the pilot
 Half of the households had produced enough calories to their
family, while on average all of the sampled households were
able to produce enough food (2355 calorie)
 Farming households adoption of improved varieties on their
plots enhanced with access to weather information.
 However, the use of landraces adaptable to the weather
scenarios were also high.
 Selling and buying decisions of livestock were affected by
access to weather information
 Farmers use of financial services increased (e.g., Micro-
Finances Institutions (MFIs), Rural Saving and Credit
Cooperatives (RUSACCO))
 Engagement in alternative income generation enhanced

17. Summary Conclusions
 There was a clear influence of weather information
dissemination on PSNP beneficiaries’ farming decisions
 Early warning information reduced weather induced risks
and enhanced adaptive capacity of the PSNP households
 PSP played great role to improve agricultural practices
 PSP that promote SWC, credit access, and engaging in off-
farm employment should be incorporated in farm planning
 Linking early warning systems has enhanced the calorie
production that translates to food security.
Thus it improved the food security and resilience of
the PSNP households dramatically.

18. Way forward
Weather information dissemination among
PSNP households should be scaled out
Why
scale?
Reasons
Intension
• Improved the food availability of the HHs based on informed decisions
• The resilience to shocks and hazards improved
• Weather information dissemination is important for the farmers for
informed decision.
Opportunities
• Farmers willingness to use early warning systems-uptake
• The impacts weather information enhanced production and productivity
• Availability of stakeholders engaged in the agriculture sector
• Stakeholders are willing to scale up the EWS
• Availability of government and local structures at kebele level

19. Why Reasons
Risks
• Accuracy of the EWS due climate change
• Delivering EWS on daily basis is difficult due to lack if infrastructures
(Network, remoteness, information dissemination devices)
• The stakeholders may not collaborate and coordinate as expected
• The pandemic may affect the dissemination practices (meeting, regular
discussion etc)
• Dessert locust is common in these areas and affect the outputs directly
Adoption
• The farmers are highly interested to use EWS to make decisions
• It needs accurate weather forecast to build thrust worthy on the
prediction
• PSP for EWS improved trust
• Engagement of CFs and network leaders
• The Regional Disaster Risk Management and BoA are ready to scale up
and institutionalize it to the extension system
Way forward
Weather information dissemination among
PSNP households should be scaled out

20. Way forward
Weather information dissemination among
PSNP households should be scaled out
What The most critical
parts
Knowledge (technology), inputs,
markets and credit
Innovation
Identification of
opportunities and hazards
regarding weather
variability
Rainfall scenarios, local knowledge, feed back
from traditional forecasters, experienced and
knowledgeable farmers, experts, and
stakeholders engaged in agricultural
development interventions
Preparing recommendation
based on the identified
hazards and opportunities
Identification of technologies based on the
forecasted rainfall scenarios
Introduction of EWS to
reduce the potential risks
and hazards of the PSNP
Appropriate planning based on the identified
potential opportunities and hazards,
appropriate forecasting and dissemination of
the weather information on time. The
integration in knowledge generating and
knowledge users is highly important to fill the
gap.

21. Way forward
Weather information dissemination among
PSNP households should be scaled out
How The most
critical parts
Resources needed
Strategies
Identification of
potential risks, hazards
and opportunities
related to weather
variability
well equipped human resource with knowledge and skill on
need assessment, knowledge on vulnerability analysis matrix,
situation assessment, appropriate technology on accurate
prediction (daily, weekly, monthly, seasonality) of weather
information
Stakeholders
collaboration:
Relevant stakeholders synergy
Sharing responsibility and financing on linking EWS to PSNP,
institutionalization of EWS, identification of potential hazards
and risks, preparing recommendations based on the identified
opportunities and risk, developing technologies that best fit to
the adverse weather condictiones etc
Strong follow up and
feedbacks
Joint planning, joint implementation, evaluation and taking
corrective actions by pulling resources, organize consultative
and regular forums

22. Where Enabling conditions
(policy & regulation,
partnerships, cultural,
socio-economic and
political factors)
Lobby and advocacy
Environment
EWS is relevant in
water stress (drought
+ high rainfall) areas
Collaborate with local administration bodies, farmers,
development organizations, community leaders,
traditional forecasters, Meteorology centers
Focusing on poor
households
PSNP HHs are vulnerable to weather risks. social
inclusiveness of the disadvantaged groups, collaborate
with local administration, disaster risk management,
livelihood projects and programmes
Partnerships Creating partnership with all relevant stakeholders in the
research and development arena. Convincing the
stakeholders to engage in the low potential areas and
poor households. Convincing the policy makers in
resources and budget mobilization in technology transfers
and innovations in the low potential areas and PSNP HHs.
Way forward
Weather information dissemination among
PSNP households should be scaled out

23. Thank you
Acknowledgements:
•Our farming communities: for their commitment,
dedication to see the results, the trust and
support we enjoyed
•The Royal Dutch Government: for funding this
important project
•PMU: follow up, technical guidance and
backstopping
•BoARD: participating in all activities, woreda and
Kebele
•MU and CoDANR: all facilitation and day to day
support
•REST/GRAD: training and data collecting PSP
•All our partners, for marching together for
change, and Project staffs, for their dedication
and compassion