Climate Change and its Impact on Health
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Climate Change and its Impact on Health
- 1. Climate Change and its Impact on Health (JPCFM, Feb. 16, 2010) Ghaiath Hussein MBBS, MHSc. (Bioethics)
- 13. Global warming increases the likelihood it will be hot or very hot and decreases, but does not eliminate, the likelihood it will be cold or very cold. Source: IPCC, 2007
- 14. Past and projected global average sea level. The gray shaded area shows the estimates of sea level change from 1800 to 1870 when measurements were not available. The red line is a reconstruction of sea level change measured by tide gauges with the surrounding shaded area depicting the uncertainty. The green line shows sea level change as measured by satellite. The purple shaded area represents the range of model projections for a medium growth emissions scenario (IPCC SRES A1B). For reference 100mm is about 4 inches. Source: IPCC, 2007
- 23. Anthroponotic Infections Zoonotic Infections Direct Exposure Indirect Exposure Environmental Exposures Vehicle Humans Source Stream pollutants Air Particulates Legionella Humans Humans STDs Measles Hepatitis B Vehicle Humans Humans Vehicle Malaria Dengue Roundworm Vehicle Vehicle Animals Animals Humans Lyme Disease Hantaviral Disease Most arboviral diseases Animals Animals Humans Anthrax Ebola (?) CJD Environment and Exposure Source Humans Solar UV EM Radiation Tetanus
- 28. Salmonellosis and temperature rise Modelled association between temperature and number of reported cases of salmonellosis in England and Wales (adjusted for outbreaks, seasonal factors and holidays) © S. Kovats (Data supplied by HPA)
- 35. Incidence of ‘All Skin Cancer’ England and Wales 1993-2002, and projections to 20251 Males, Females and all persons Directly aged standardised registration rates (DSR) Source: Health & Social Care Information Centre (2006). Compendium of Clinical & Health Indicators / Clinical & Health Outcomes Knowledge Base http://www.nchod.nhs.uk Note: International Classification of Disease and related health problems (ICD) definition of all skin cancers - ICD9 172-173, ICD10 C43-C44. Males Persons Females Year 1 Exponential projections based on data for the ten years 1993-2002
- 41. Health impact of extreme events
- 43. Health impact of extreme events
- 44. Health impact of extreme events
- 46. Knowing is not enough; we must apply. Willing is not enough; we must do. (Goethe)
- 48. Q & A
Editor's Notes
- See also: Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum and Rosalie Woodruff 2006, “Comparative Risk Assessment of the Burden of Disease from Climate Change” Environ Health Perspect 114:1935–1941 DOI: doi:10.1289/ehp.8432
- WHO has identified five major health consequences of climate change. 1. Malnutrition Rising temperatures and more frequent droughts and floods can compromise food security. Increases in malnutrition are expected to be especially severe in countries where large populations depend on rain-fed subsistence farming. 2. Deaths and injuries caused by storms and floods. In addition, flooding can be followed by outbreaks of diseases, such as cholera, especially when water and sanitation services are damaged or destroyed. Storms and floods are already among the most frequent and deadly forms of natural disasters. 3. Water scarcity / contamination Both scarcities of water, which is essential for hygiene, and excess water due to more frequent and torrential rainfall will increase the burden of diarrhoeal disease, which is spread through contaminated food and water. Diarrhoeal disease is already the second leading infectious cause of childhood mortality and accounts for a total of approximately 1.8 million deaths each year. 4. Heatwaves Heatwaves, especially in urban “heat islands”, can directly increase morbidity and mortality, mainly in elderly people with cardiovascular or respiratory disease. Apart from heatwaves, higher temperatures can increase ground-level ozone and hasten the onset of the pollen season, contributing to asthma attacks. 5. Vector-borne disease Changing temperatures and patterns of rainfall are expected to alter the geographical distribution of insect vectors that spread infectious diseases. Of these diseases, malaria and dengue are of greatest public health concern.
- Chronic medical conditions (include pre-existing illnesses, e.g. cardiovascular, cerebrovascular and respiratory diseases, blood & metabolic/endocrine gland, cardio-pulmonary and genitourinary disorders) Service users/clients with special needs (Learning Disability, Physical Disability and Sensory Impairment, Older People, Mental Health & Substance Abuse)
- Air quality: Main drivers of air pollution include emissions & meteorological conditions Although air pollution is thought to decline over the next 50 years, background concentrations of ozone are likely to increase, leading to at least 1500 extra deaths and hospital admissions Any decline in air quality could pose serious health problems for asthmatics. There is currently a public alert system advising the public according to the alert level reached Ozone levels in the UK are dependent on pollution control in Europe
- Infectious diseases : Cases of food poisoning (salmonellosis, campylobacter) and water borne disease (cryptosporidiosis) linked to warm weather are likely to increase
- Sunburn, skin cancer and cataract: Are likely to increase as people are going to sunbathe more/ greater sun & UV exposure because of the warmer weather.
- River, Coastal Flooding & Flash Floods : The risk of major flooding disasters caused by severe winter gales, heavy rainfall and coastal erosion is likely to result in: Contamination of drinking water, Rise in waterborne infections Exposure to toxic pollutants, accompanied with Psychological consequences, disruption, injuries and deaths. Later effects of flooding include stress and mental health problems. River floods or storm surges, which can be forecast several days in advance, have fewer casualties compared to flash floods where there is no prior warning.
- Rates of skin cancer are projected to show an upward trend in the coming years. It is difficult to know how much of this is related to global climatic change but it is not inconceivable that such change might make the upward trend even steeper. These are the England & Wales projections.
- Possible ancillary health benefits : Such as increased physical activity due to extended warm weather.But, outcomes could be worse due to extreme heat. Reduced obesity and road traffic injuries through active transport Possibly healthy eating through adoption of sustainable farming & food policy and diets containing less animal products Reduced respiratory illness by improvements in air quality Increased home energy efficiency reducing temperature-related illness Possibly healthy eating if sustainable farming and food policy are adopted.