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1. Climate Change and its Impact
on Health (JPCFM, Feb. 16, 2010)
Ghaiath Hussein
MBBS, MHSc. (Bioethics)
2. Overview
• Climate Change, Greenhouse Effect, and Global
Warming Defined
• Greenhouse gases
• Evidence of global warming
• Impact(s) of climate change
• Impact on health
3. Climate change
• refers to any distinct change in measures of climate
lasting for a long period of time, including major
changes in temperature, rainfall, snow, or wind
patterns lasting for decades or longer. Climate
change may result from:
• natural factors, such as changes in the Sun’s energy or
slow changes in the Earth’s orbit around the Sun;
• natural processes within the climate system (e.g.,
changes in ocean circulation);
• human activities that change the atmosphere’s make-up
(e.g, burning fossil fuels) and the land surface (e.g.,
cutting down forests, planting trees, building
developments in cities and suburbs, etc.).
4. Global warming
• is an average increase in temperatures near the
Earth’s surface and in the lowest layer of the
atmosphere.
• Increases in temperatures in our Earth’s
atmosphere can contribute to changes in global
climate patterns.
• Global warming can be considered part of
climate change along with changes in
precipitation, sea level, etc.
5. Greenhouse Effect
• The greenhouse effect is a natural process that sees the
Earth's atmosphere insulate the Earth.
• Incoming solar radiation (short-wave radiation) is
absorbed at the Earth's surface. The Earth's climatic
system then redistributes this energy around the globe,
through atmospheric and oceanic circulation
patterns. Energy is then radiated back from the Earth's
surface into the atmosphere as long-wave radiation
• Over time there is an approximate balance in this
incoming (short-wave) and outgoing (long-wave)
radiation. Changes to this balance, such as changes in
the amount of radiation received or lost by the system,
or changes to the distribution cycles within the system,
6.
7. Greenhouse gases
• water vapor and carbon dioxide (CO2), occur
naturally. human activities are adding large amounts
of:
• carbon dioxide, methane (CH4), nitrous oxide
(N2O), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs),
perfluorocarbons (PFCs) and sulfur hexafluoride
(SF6).
• Since 1750, atmospheric concentrations of CO2,
CH4 and N2O have increased by over 36 percent,
148 percent and 18 percent, respectively. Scientists
have concluded
8.
9.
10. Global warmth…so what?
• The heating of the Earth's surface and
atmosphere affects these climate variables to
produce extreme weather and climate events.
• Climate change is already being observed in a
range of climate variables, such as: temperature,
rainfall, atmospheric moisture, snow cover, land
and sea ice, sea level, wind patterns and ocean
circulation patterns.
11. Major global killers are
affected by climate
Each year:
• Weather– related disasters kill over 60,000
• Undernutrition kills 3.5 million
• Diarrhoea kills 2.2 million
• Malaria kills 900,000
(WHO, 2003, 2008)
12.
13. Global warming increases the likelihood it will be hot or very hot and decreases,
but does not eliminate, the likelihood it will be cold or very cold. Source: IPCC,
2007
14. Past and projected global average sea level. The gray shaded area shows the
estimates of sea level change from 1800 to 1870 when measurements were not
available. The red line is a reconstruction of sea level change measured by tide
gauges with the surrounding shaded area depicting the uncertainty. The green line
shows sea level change as measured by satellite. The purple shaded area
represents the range of model projections for a medium growth emissions scenario
(IPCC SRES A1B). For reference 100mm is about 4 inches. Source: IPCC, 2007
15.
16. Agriculture and Forestry
• The supply and cost of food may change as
farmers and the food industry adapt to new
climate patterns. A small amount of warming
coupled with increasing CO2 may benefit certain
crops, plants and forests, although the impacts of
vegetation depend also on the availability of
water and nutrients. For warming of more than a
few degrees, the effects are expected to become
increasingly negative, especially for vegetation
near the warm end of its suitable range.
17. Water Resources
• In a warming climate, extreme events like floods and
droughts are likely to become more frequent.
• More frequent floods and droughts will affect water
quality and availability.
• increases in drought in some areas may increase
the frequency of water shortages and lead to more
restrictions on water usage.
• An overall increase in precipitation may increase
water availability in some regions, but also create
greater flood potential.
18. Energy
• : Warmer temperatures may result in higher
energy bills for air conditioning in summer, and
lower bills for heating in winter. Energy usage is
also connected to water needs. Energy is
needed for irrigation, which will most likely
increase due to climate change. Also, energy is
generated by hydropower in some regions, which
will also be impacted by changing precipitation
patterns.
19. Coasts
• : If you live along the coast, your home may be
impacted by sea level rise and an increase in
storm intensity. Rising seas may contribute to
enhanced coastal erosion, coastal flooding, loss
of coastal wetlands, and increased risk of
property loss from storm surges.
20. Wildlife
• Warmer temperatures and precipitation changes
will likely affect the habitats and migratory
patterns of many types of wildlife.
• The range and distribution of many species will
change, and some species that cannot move or
adapt may face extinction.
24. WHO: five major health impacts of
climate change
1. Malnutrition
2. Deaths and injuries caused by storms and floods.
(Flooding can also be followed by outbreaks of
diseases, such as cholera)
3. Water scarcity / contamination (droughts and sudden
floods) – increased burden of diarrhoeal disease.
4. Heatwaves – direct increases in morbidity and
mortality; indirect effects via increases in ground-
level ozone, contributing to asthma attacks.
5. Vector-borne disease – malaria and dengue.
25. Vulnerable population groups
• Chronic medical conditions including mentally ill, clients
with special needs
• Social isolation
• Poor & vulnerable communities
• Being confined to bed
• Certain medical treatments
• Some types of occupation, outdoor workers
• Very young children
• Elderly suffer the greatest effects of heat-waves (impact
on mortality greater in women)
26. Health impact of climate change
• Air pollution - a reduction in the cold, calm winter
weather associated with winter air pollution episodes
together with reduced emissions of key pollutants
including particles, oxides of nitrogen and
sulphurdioxide could lead to a reduction (up to 50%)
in the adverse health effects of winter air pollution.
• A small overall increase in the number of summer
ozone episodes coupled with a longer-term increase
in background levels of ozone could cause a rise in
the number of premature deaths.
27. Air Pollution
• Pollution determined by
emissions & weather
• Increases in ozone:
o extra deaths &
o hospital admissions
• Air quality decline:
o severity of asthma
• Ozone levels dependent on
pollution control in Europe
• Between 2003 – 2020, increase in ozone levels will result in a 51-53%
increase in attributable deaths and hospital admissions for respiratory
diseases, threshold assumptions of 35-50ppb (attributable to climate change)
29. Infectious diseases – foodborne and
waterborne diseases
Foodborne diseases
• Likely increase in cases of food
poisoning
• incidence dependent on future food
hygiene behaviour
• evidence confirms the effect of
temperature on salmonellosis
• role of temperature in
Campylobacter transmission remains
uncertain
Waterborne diseases
• Likely increase in cases of
Cryptosporidiosis
• Impact of increased temperature on
water quality & disinfection
30. Health impact of climate change
• Extremes of temperature - heat-related deaths
could increase to around 2,800 cases per year.
• This is likely to be offset by milder winters
leading to a fall in cold-related winter deaths of
up to 20,000 cases per year.
31. Likely increases in:
• Sunburn
• Skin cancer
• Possibly cataracts
Exposure to ultra violet radiation
32. Health impact of climate change
• Flooding – increased frequency of severe
coastal and river floods,
• Analysis of more recent river flooding shows that
mental health problems are the most important
health impact among flood victims due to
experience of personal and economic loss and
stress.
33. River, Coastal Flooding &
Flash Floods
• Few direct deaths
• Full effect in terms of mortality and morbidity not known
o Accidents – drowning, electrical
o Contamination of drinking water
o Rise in waterborne infections
o Exposure to toxic pollutants
o Psychological consequences
o Disruption, injuries & deaths
o Late effects include stress &
mental health problems
• Food and water safety concerns
• Effects on health and social service delivery
UK floods of summer 2007
34. Health impact of climate change
• • UV exposure – levels of UV radiation reaching
the earth’s surface may increase due to sunnier
summers,
• a decline in cloud cover and ozone depletion
(which
• reduces the capacity of the ozone layer to
absorb UV).
• predicted an extra 5,000 cases of skin cancer
and 2,000 of cataract per year by 2050.
35. Directly aged standardised registration rates
(DSR)
Source: Health & Social Care Information Centre (2006). Compendium of Clinical & Health Indicators / Clinical & Health Outcomes Knowledge Base http://www.nchod.nhs.uk
Note: International Classification of Disease and related health problems (ICD) definition of all skin cancers - ICD9 172-173, ICD10 C43-C44.
Males
Persons
Females
Year
1 Exponential projections based on data for the ten years 1993-2002
Incidence of ‘All Skin Cancer’
England and Wales 1993-2002, and projections to 20251
Males, Females and all persons
36. Health impact of climate change
• Vector-borne diseases – various diseases
transmitted by mosquitoes or ticks are climate-
sensitive and can increase or be introduced due
to climate change.
• Malaria might be re-established in non-endemic
areas.
• Potential emergence of other vector-borne
diseases, such as West Nile Fever.
37. Vector-borne diseases
• Outbreaks of malaria likely to be
rare
• Tick borne likely to be more
common, but relate to land
use/leisure activities rather than
climate change
o Lyme disease – no observed
correlation between temperature
and incidence
o Tick-borne encephalitis – low
chances of occurrence
• Possible increase in flies
(diarrhoeal disease), midges, fleas, stinging insects
• Need to be alert to possibility of emerging infections
38. Health impact of climate change
• Food poisoning - higher temperatures in
summer could cause an estimated 10,000 extra
cases of salmonella infection per year.
• Storms – any increase in the frequency of
severe winter storms could lead to an increase in
personal injuries from flying debris and falling
trees.
39. Health impact of climate change
• Water-borne disease – climate change might
increase levels of cryptosporidium and
campylobacter in water.
• Secure sanitation systems should safeguard
supplies of drinking water, but possible
contamination of stormwater outflows could carry
disease into basements and nearby rivers,
affecting the health of residents and river users.
40. What diseases are the most
climate sensitive?
• heat stress
• effects of storms
• air pollution effects
• asthma
• vector-borne diseases
• water-borne diseases
• food-borne diseases
• sexually-transmitted
diseases
High
Low
Sensitivit
y
42. Lead to:
• Social disruption
• Homelessness
• Injuries, deaths,
disability
• Impacts on food and
water supply
Extreme weather-related
events (natural disasters)
45. Due to both direct & indirect effects:
• Increased physical activity due to
extended warm weather. But,
outcomes could be worse due to
extreme heat
• Reduced obesity and road traffic
injuries through active transport
• Possibly healthy eating through
adoption of sustainable farming &
food policy and diets containing
less animal products
• Reduced respiratory illness by
improvements in air quality
• Increased home energy efficiency
reducing temperature-related
illness
Potential health benefits
46. Knowing is not enough; we must
apply.
Willing is not enough; we must do.
47. Discussion…
From YOUR EXPERIENCES or INTERESTS:
• What diseases might have a climate link and what
climate variables might impact on which
diseases?
• How would these be investigated/researched?
• What additional information would you seek?
• How would you integrate this into OTHER
determinants of risk?
• What other factors should be considered and
why?
