The document outlines the plan for a presentation on the health impacts of climate change. It discusses introducing the problem statement, evidence of climate change, causes of human-caused climate change, and potential health impacts. It also covers international environmental agendas, adaptation options, and frameworks to address climate change impacts in India.

1. Presenter : Dr. Monalisha
Facilitator : Dr Hema
Moderator : Dr S. Nagesh

2. Plan for presentation
• Introduction
• Problem statement
• Evidence of climate change
• Causes of climate change
• Evidence for human caused climate change
• Indian Scenario
• Pathways for climate to affect health
• Potential health impacts of climate change
• International environmental Agenda
• Stages of adaptation
• Options for adaptations to reduce the health impacts of climate change
• BRACE framework
• India for Climate Issues
• Conclusion
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3. Introduction
Climate change is a significant & lasting change in
the statistical distribution of weather patterns over
periods ranging from decades to millions of years.
• Change in average weather conditions, or in Distribution
of weather around average conditions (i.e., more or
fewer extreme weather events).
• Changes in many aspects of weather, such as Wind
patterns, Precipitation & Severe weather events.
• Far-reaching and/or unpredictable environmental, social
and economic consequences.
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4. Problem statement
Since the early 20th century, Earth's mean surface
temperature has increased by about 0.8 °C (1.4 °F),
with about two-thirds of the increase occurring
since 1980
• Developing Countries & Small Island Nations
will be the first & hardest hit by this phenomena.
• Each year, about 800 000 people die from causes
attributable to it.
• 1.8 million die from diarrhoea ( due to lack of
access to clean water supply and sanitation &
from poor hygiene)
• 3.5 million die from malnutrition.
• 60 000 die in natural disasters.
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5. Estimated Death and DALYs
Attributable to Climate Change
2000
Floods
2020
Malaria
Diarrhea
Malnutrition
120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2 4 6 8 10
Deaths (thousands) DALYs (millions)
Campbell-Lendrum et al., 2003

6. Physical evidence for & examples
of climatic change
1. Temperature measurements
2. Melting of Glaciers
3. Arctic sea ice loss
4. Sea level change
5. Others
 Pollen analysis
 Precipitation
 Ice cores
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7. 1)Temperature measurements
May Entail Changes in Variance, as Well as Changes in Mean
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Source: IPCC,2012
7

8. Change in surface temperature
Warming trend over the 20 th century
Source: WHO, 2003: Climate change and human health: risks and responses.
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9. Global mean temperature & future projections
6.00
Global mean temperature has increased by 0.74°C between 1906 and 2005.
5.00
Change in Global Temperatures wrt 1961-90 (°C)
4.00
IS92A
A1FI
A2a
3.00 A2b
A2c
A2(Me
2.00 B1a
B2a
B2b
B2(me
1.00
0.00
Source: IPCC, 2001
Source: IPCC,2012
-1.00
1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061 2071 2081 2091
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Year 9

10. 2) Melting of Glaciers
Among the most sensitive indicators of climate change.
Their size is determined by a mass balance between snow input &
melt output.
Source: WGMS &NSIDC
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11. Source: NASA
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12. 3) Arctic Sea Ice Loss
Decline in Arctic sea ice, both in extent and thickness, over the last several decades is
further evidence for rapid climate change. Satellite observations show that Arctic sea
ice is now declining at a rate of 11.5 percent per decade, relative to the 1979 to 2000
average.
1993
2012
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NASA

13. Arctic sea ice level
This time series, based on satellite data, shows the annual Arctic sea
ice level. Source: NASA
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14. 4) Sea level rise
Global sea level has risen at the average rate of 1.8mm/yr
during 1961-2003, the rate has been faster during 1993-2003
(@3.1 mm/yr)
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15. 5) Other Factors
Analysis of air bubbles in Antarctic Ice sheet: CO2 &
atmospheric concentration of the CH4 & N2O were
constant until they started to rise in the industrial era.
Precipitation: Global terrestrial net primary precipitation
increased by 6% from 1982 to 1999, with the largest
portion of that increase in tropical ecosystems, then
decreased by 1% from 2000 to 2009.
Palynological Studies : Changes in the type of pollen found
in different layers of sediment in lakes, bogs, or river
deltas indicate changes in plant communities. These
changes are often a sign of a changing climate
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16. Causes of change In climate
Internal forcing External forcing
mechanisms mechanism
Ocean
Human activities
variability
Life Solar output
Magnetic field
Volcanism
Plate tectonics
Orbital variations
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17. 4/4/2013
Source: IPCC,2012
19

18. Evidence for human
caused climate change
1. Greenhouse gases have increased and their warming
properties are well-established.
2. Historical estimates of past climate changes suggest
that the recent changes in global surface temperature
are unusual.
3. Computer-based climate models are unable to
replicate the observed warming unless human
greenhouse gas emissions are included.
4. Natural forces alone (such as solar and volcanic
activity) cannot explain the observed warming.
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19. Anthropogenic greenhouse gases
Gas Contribution (%)
Water vapor 36 – 72%
Carbon dioxide 9 – 26%
Methane 4 – 9%
Ozone 3 – 7%
CFCs <1%
• Burning of fossil fuels & deforestation lead to higher CO2 .
• Livestock enteric fermentation & manure management, paddy rice
farming, land use and wetland changes, & covered vented landfill
emissions etc leading to higher CH4.
• CFCs in refrigeration systems, & halons in fire suppression systems
• Agricultural activities, including the use of fertilizers, that lead to higher
N2O.
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20. 4/4/2013 22

21. Earth's annual carbon cycle
Human activities emit about 9 Gt of carbon each year. About 4 Gt of this human-contributed
carbon remain in the atmosphere; 3 Gt are taken up by natural terrestrial processes, and
another 2 Gt are removed by the ocean (Canadell et al. 2007).
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22. Emissions Exceed Nature’s CO2 Drain
Source: National Research Council, 2011a
Emissions of CO2 due to fossil fuel burning and cement manufacture are
Increasing, but capacity of ―sinks‖ that take up CO2—e.g. plants on land and in
the ocean—are decreasing. Atmospheric CO2 is increasing as a result
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23. Increasing greenhouse gases trap more
heat
Higher concentration of CO2 & other
green house gases trap more infrared rays
in stratosphere. The additional heat
further warms atmosphere & earth’s
surface.
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24. Indian Scenario
India is not immune from the impact of global
warming and climate change.
• Any sharp rise in sea level could have a
considerable impact given its low coastline
and important cities located on the coast as
also states having large low lying areas.
• According to a report, the total CO2
equivalent emissions in 2007 were
1,612,362.00 in thousands of metric tones.
INDIA Second National Communication to UNFCCC 2012
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25. Indian Scenario
• Surface air temperature indicates a significant warming of
0.4°C for 100 years. Increase in mean annual temperature
by 3°C to 6°C by the end of the 21st century.
• Glaciers in Himalayas are receding at a rapid pace.
• There is a projected increase in rainfall by 15-40 % by the
end of the 21st century with high regional variability.
• The warming is projected to be more pronounced over land
areas, with the maximum increase over northern India. The
warming is also relatively greater in winter and post-
monsoon seasons. INDIA Second National Communication to UNFCCC 2012
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26. There are some major sources of
GHG’s emission in India
INDIA Second National Communication to UNFCCC 2012
Source:India Second National communication to UNFCC
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27. Climate Change & Health
Fossil Fuel Use, Development &
Population Growth (Increased Emission
of green house gases )
Climate Change (Earth warming
rapidly)
Serious Effects On The Environment
Fundamental determinants of health:
Air, Water, Food, Shelter & Freedom
From Disease.
Serious Effects On Human Lives And
Health
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28. Pathways from Driving Forces to
Potential Health Impacts
Corvalan et al., 2003
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29. Pathways for Weather to Affect Health:
Example = Diarrheal Disease
Distal Causes Proximal Causes Infection Hazards Health Outcome
Temperature Survival/ replication Consumption of
Humidity of pathogens in the contaminated water
environment
Incidence of
Precipitation mortality and
Contamination of Consumption of
morbidity
Living conditions attributable
water sources contaminated food
(water supply and to diarrhea
sanitation)
Contamination of food Contact with
sources infected persons
Food sources and
hygiene practices
Vulnerability
Rate of person (e.g. age and
to person contact nutrition)
WHO
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30. Major health consequences of climate
change
1) Agricultural sector extremely sensitive Rising temperatures & more frequent
droughts and floods compromise food security Malnutrition
2) Frequent extreme weather events (storms and floods) Deaths & Injuries
Outbreaks of diseases, such as Cholera.
3) Both scarcities & excess of water Diarrhoeal disease
4) Heat-waves , especially in urban “heat islands” directly increase morbidity &
mortality, mainly in elderly people with cardiovascular or respiratory disease. Also
increase in ground-level ozone and hasten the onset of the pollen season
Asthma attacks
5) Changing temperatures & patterns of rainfall alter the geographical distribution
of insect vectors Vector borne diseases (Malaria and dengue are of
greatest public health concern.)
WHO
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31. Potential Climate Change Health
Effects
• Heat-Related & Extreme events related Morbidity and
Mortality
• Asthma, Respiratory Allergies, and Airway Diseases
• Cardiovascular Disease and Stroke
• Vectorborne and Zoonotic Diseases
• Foodborne Diseases and Nutrition
• Waterborne Diseases
• Mental Health &Neurological Diseases and Disorders
• Cancer
• Social Impacts
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32. Heat & extreme weather -Related
Morbidity and Mortality
Heat waves, or extreme heat events, are characterized by
several days of temperatures greater than 90° F; warm,
stagnant air masses; and consecutive nights with higher–
than-usual minimum temperatures.
Account for more deaths annually than hurricanes, tornadoes,
floods, and earthquakes combined.
Extreme weather events, sea-level rise, destruction of
local economies, resource scarcity, and associated
conflict due to climate change are predicted to
displace millions of people worldwide. (200 million
people worldwide by 2050)
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33. Respiratory Diseases
Air quality affected through several pathways
– increases in regional ambient concentrations of ozone, PM2.5s
fine particles, & dust.
– Increase production & allergenicity of aeroallergens (pollen
mold & spores)
Aeroallergens act with other harmful air pollution worsen respiratory
disease (Allergic rhinitis asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary
disease )
Ozone causes direct, reversible lung injury; increases premature
mortality; worsens respiratory diseases such as asthma and chronic
obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD); and may cause lasting lung
damage.
PM2.5s are associated with respiratory and cardiovascular diseases,
including asthma, COPD, and cardiac dysrhythmias
Global rise in asthma is an early health effect of climate change38
4/4/2013
.

34. Cardiovascular Disease and Stroke
• Dysrhythmias are primarily associated with extreme cold as
well as heat.
• Stroke incidence increases with increasing temperature.
• Ozone are also associated with acute myocardial infarction.
• Particulate matter associated with systemic inflammation,
deranged coagulation , thrombosis, blood vessel dysfunction
atherosclerotic disease, compromised heart function, deep
venous thromboses, & pulmonary embolism.
• Increased burden of PM2.5 is associated with increased
hospital admissions and mortality from cardiovascular
disease, as well as ischemic heart disease
• Elderly and isolated individuals are at greatest risk.
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35. Vector-borne and Zoonotic Diseases
Distribution of vectors will change arising from:
• Increasing temperature
• Changing rainfall
• Cyclones, flooding
• Changes in animal host/reservoir populations
• Rising sea levels
• Extreme tides
• Loss of coastal margins
Malaria and dengue fever to re-emerge.
Introduction & spread of new agents, such as West Nile virus.
Some VBZD agents like Lyme disease & Hantavirus, which show
evidence of seasonality & the range of these diseases could
change with a changing climate
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36. Food borne diseases
• Increased occurrence of Vibrio infection, especially seafood-
borne disease associated with V. vulnificus & V.
parahaemolyticus.
• Ocean acidification also lead to more virulent strains of
existing pathogens & emergence of new pathogens.
• Drought encourage crop pests such as aphids, locusts, and
whiteflies, as well as the spread of the mould Aspergillus
flavus & thereby exacerbate malnutrition, poverty, and the
need for human migration.
• Greater use of herbicides, fungicides, & insecticides,
resulting in potential immediate hazards to farm workers
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37. Waterborne disease
• Increased risk from the:
a) Concentration of nutrient and chemical
contaminants
b) Formation of toxic algal bloom
c) Surface water contamination with human waste
d) Changes in ocean and coastal ecosystems
e) Changes in ph, salinity
f) Contaminant runoff, leaching of arsenic, fluoride,
and nitrates from fertilizers & lead contamination
g) Water security.
• Severe outbreaks of cholera.
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38. Mental Health
– Anxiety and depression
– Post traumatic stress disorderInsecurity
– Grief
– Stress, self harm and possible suicide
– Drug and alcohol misuse
– Impacts on individuals, communities
– Loss of social cohesion
– Dislocation ―Solastalgia‖.
– Specific impacts on children, women and elderly
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39. Neurological diseases
Exposure to neurotoxins (eg. domoic acid ) in seafood, fresh
& marine waters, pesticides & herbicide effects & heavy
metals leads to onset and exacerbation
• Amnesia,
• Numbness,
• Neurological deficits
• Learning disabilities
• Liver damage,
• Skin and eye irritation,
• Respiratory paralysis,
• PD- and AD-like symptoms,
• Epilepsy.
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40. Cancers
• Leaching of toxic chemicals and heavy
metals from storage sites & contamination
of water with chemicals.
• Depletion of stratospheric ozone resulting
in increased UV radiation exposure
increased risk of skin cancers (BCC &
SCC) & cataracts.
• Increased UV radiation with certain
polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs)
phototoxicity & DNA damage.
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41. Social Impacts
Lifestyle and behaviour are likely to be affected in
the following ways:
– Increases in crime - particularly involving
aggression
– Accidents - workplace and traffic
– Decline in physical health
– Hot nights may cause sleep deprivation
– Recreational opportunities - changes to
exercise patterns
– Changes in alcohol consumption
– Stress
– Lack of cold water- reduced ability to cool
down

42. International environment agenda
• 1972 Club of Rome Limits to Growth .
• 1972 UN World Conference on the Human Environment.
• 1987 World Commission on Environment and Development
―Our Common Future‖
• WSSD. [World Summit on Sustainable Development] Rio 1992
– Framework Conventions on Climate Change, Biodiversity and
others.
– Agenda 21
• 1997 Kyoto Protocol
• WSSD - Johannesburg 2002 [Rio+10]
– UN Kofi Annan proposed five key areas for particular focus:
– WEHAB [Water, Energy, Health, Agriculture, Biodiversity]
• 2005 Kyoto Protocol comes into force. US opts out.
• 2008 : Protecting health from the adverse effects of climate change
• 2010 : United Nation Climate Change Conference Cancun, Mexico
• 2011 : United Nation Climate Change Conference Durban, South
Africa
• 2012 : Doha Climate Gateway
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43. Stages of Adaptation
Extreme rainfall and flooding
Prevent/reduce
• Primary – prevent onset of flooding
DECREASING EFFECTIVENESS
health impact
Overflow of waste from septic
• Secondary – preventative tanks into flood waters
measures taken in
response to early evidence Prevent/reduce
of impact overflow of
waste
• Tertiary – actions to lessen Human contact with flood water
the health effects Avoid human
contact with water
Gastro intestinal diseases
Correct medical
treatment
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44. Options for Adaptations to Reduce the Health
Impacts of Climate Change
Health Legislative Technical Educational- Cultural &
Outcome advisory Behavioral
Thermal Building Housing, public Early warning Clothing,
stress guidelines buildings, urban systems siesta
planning, air
conditioning
Extreme Planning laws, Urban planning, storm Early warning Use of storm
weather economic shelters systems shelters
events incentives for
building
Vector-borne Vector control, Health Water storage
diseases vaccination, impregnated education practices
bednets, sustainable
surveillance, prevention
& control programmes
Water-borne Watershed Screening for pathogens, Boil water Washing
diseases protection improved water alerts hands and
laws, water treatment & sanitation other
quality behavior, use
regulation of pit latrines

45. Adaptive Options to reduce Global warming
oStop deforestation/plant forests
oReplace regular bulbs with compact
fluorescent light (CFL)
oProduce more fuel-efficient vehicles &
Reduce vehicle use.
oRecycle more
oImprove energy-efficiency in buildings
oDevelop carbon capture and storage
processes
oTriple nuclear power
oIncrease solar power
oImprove soil carbon management strategies
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46. CARBON FOOTPRINT
• Carbon Footprint is the sum of all emissions
of, CO2 which was induced by a person’s
activity in the time period of year.
• It is usually expressed in equivalent tones
of carbon dioxide. It is a very powerful tool to
understand the impact of personal behavior
on global warming.
• Constant monitoring of ones carbon foorprint
is essential.
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47. Carbon Credits
• A carbon credit is a generic term for any tradable certificate or permit
representing the right to emit one tone of carbon or carbon dioxide
equivalent (CO2 -e).
• They are a component of national and international attempts to
mitigate the growth in concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs).
• Led to the establishment of carbon market all across the world.
• They can be sold within a country and between the countries. The
value of one CER in Indian Rupees is about Rs. 1600
• To combat climate changes globally, Kyoto Protocol was created
committing to reduce GHGs Emissions by 5.2% & improve Energy
Efficiency in the period 2008-12.
.

48. Building Resilience Against Climate
Effects (BRACE) Framework
It is for public health agencies to help them develop
strategies and programs to confront the health
implications of climate change
There are five sequential steps
• Step 1: Forecasting Climate Impacts and Assessing
Vulnerabilities.
• Step 2: Projecting the Disease Burden.
• Step 3: Assessing Public Health Interventions.
• Step 4: Developing and Implementing a Climate
and Health Adaptation Plan.
• Step 5: Evaluating Impact and Improving Quality
of Activities step for the Framework.
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Source: CDC Atlanta

49. India for Climate Issues
• Solar Mission to increase the share of this
energy for decentralized distribution and to
create affordable and convenient solar power
systems.
• Enhanced Energy Efficiency to introduce cost
effectiveness and shift to energy efficient
appliances.
• Sustainable Habitats to optimize energy
application in large building & efficient urban
waste management.
• Conserve water & ensure equitable
distribution between States & areas.
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50. India for Climate Issues
• Sustaining the Himalayan Eco System by
safeguarding the Himalayan Glacier.
• Mission for Green India by undertaking a
forestation of 6 million hectares to reach the
National target of 33% green cover.
• Sustainable Agriculture by developing
thermal resistance crops and supported by
Bio-technology, geo-spatia technology and IT
• Strategic Knowledge developement to fund
high quality and focused research on climate
change.
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51. Conclusion
• The diverse, widespread, long-term and
inequitable distribution of health risks makes
climate change a truly global challenge, calling
for an unprecedented degree of partnership.
• An effective response will require actions from
across society: from individuals, the health
sector, and community and political leaders.
• Sharing of responsibilities between the
populations
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52. References
• INDIA Second National Communication to UNFCCC 2012 Government of
India ,Ministry of Environment & Forests:Paryavaran Bhawan, CGO
Complex,Lodi Road, New Delhi-3.
• IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change),2006. IPCC
Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories. Task Force on
National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, IPCC
• 2009 Ends Warmest Decade on Record NASA Earth Observatory Image of
the Day, 22 January 2010.
• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Paris. IPCC, Synthesis
Report, Section 2.4: Attribution of climate change, in IPCC AR4 SYR 2009
• Canadell, J.G., et al. (20 November 2007), "Contributions to Accelerating
Atmospheric CO2 Growth from Economic Activity, Carbon Intensity,
and Efficiency of Natural Sinks", Proceedings of the National Academy
of Sciences of the United States of America 104 (47): 18866–18870. DOI:
10.1073/pnas.0702737104
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53. References
• IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), 1996.
Good Practice Guidance and Uncertainty Management in
National Green House Gas Inventories.
• Impact of climate change on vector borne disease with
special emphasis on Malaria.NIMR
• NATCOM (National Communication), 2004. India’s Initial
National Communication to the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change. Ministry of Environment
and Forests, Government of India, New Delhi
• IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change),2009.
Emission Factor Database (EFDB). Available at
http://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/EFDB/main.php, last
accessed on
• IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change),2003.
Good Practice Guidance for Land Use, Land Use
• Change and Forestry. Institute for Global Environmental
Strategies (IGES) Jha A. K., Sharma C., Singh
4/4/2013 58

54. References
• Global Change Master Directory:
http://gcmd.gsfc.nasa.gov/Resources/pointers/glob_w
arm.htmlIntergovernmental Panel on Climate
change(last accesed on 24/03/2013)
• U.S. Climate Change Science Program:
http://www.climatescience.gov/(last accesed on
24/03/2013)
• NOAA National Climatic Data Centre site on Global
Warming /(last accesed on 24/03/2013)
• http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/globalwarming.
html /(last accesed on 24/03/2013)
• NASA GISS recent research website:
http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/ /(last accesed on
24/03/2013)
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55. Preserve our Forests……
Reduce Carbon Emission
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