Global food security faces complex challenges such as food price volatility, population growth, and climate change. A comprehensive strategy is needed to address these challenges and protect the poor. Agriculture, especially small-scale farming, must play a new role in achieving broader development outcomes such as improving nutrition, promoting climate change adaptation, building conflict resilience, and narrowing gender gaps.

1. Global Food Security Challenges and opportunities:The New Role of AgricultureShenggen FanDirector GeneralInternational Food Policy Research InstituteUSAID Agriculture Core Course, Washington, DC, June 6, 2011

2. Key messagesGlobal food security challenges remain large and complexA comprehensive strategy is needed to address challenges, harness opportunities, and protect poor peopleThe new role of agriculture, especially small-scale farming, must be leveraged for achieving broad development outcomes

3. Global food security challenges remain large and complex

4. Challenges to global food security includeFood price volatilityEnergy/BiofuelsPopulation growth and demographic changesLand and water constraintsClimate changeConflicts

5. Global food price hikes and volatilityGlobal hikes since June 2010Maize: 100%Wheat: 98%Source: Data from FAO 2011

6. Domestic prices are also rising rapidlyRetail prices in China, national averageWholesale prices in Ethiopia, Addis Ababa Retail prices in Vietnam, Dong ThapRetail prices in Indonesia, national averageSource: Data from FAO 2011

7. High and volatile food prices affect food security, but outcomes varySelf-reported food insecurity in select countriesSource: Headey 2011

8. Stronger link between oil and food prices influence food securityRising oil prices make biofuels more profitable, and agricultural production more expensive Correlation between oil and food prices have increased overtime (correlation coefficient 0.93 since 2000) Source: Data from IMF 2011Note: Oil = Average crude oil price of U.K. Brent, Dubai, and West Texas Intermediate

9. Rapidly growing population and demographic changeWorld population reaches 9 billion by 2050All growth to come from urban areasMost growth to come from developing countriesSource: FAO 2009Larger and more urban population will demand more and better food

10. Climate change will affect average crop yieldsNCAR A2aSource: Nelson et al. 2009.

11. Conflicts affect food security and developmentIncidence ratio of undernourishment, poverty and other ills for fragile, recovering, and non-fragile developing countriesSource: World Bank 2011

12. A comprehensive strategy is needed to address challenges, harness opportunities, and protect poor people

13. Actions needed to reduce food price volatility and protect the poor

14. Invest in productive social safety netsBangladesh Vulnerable Group Development programIncreased per capita food consumption by 45-66 kcal per taka transfer (Ahmed et al. 2009)Ethiopia Productive Safety Nets Program (PSNP) With access to both safety nets and agric. support, beneficiaries are more food secure and productive (Gilligan, Hoddinott, and Taffesse 2009)Nigeria Fadama II Development ProjectIncreased the value of individual productive assets by about 50% (Nkonya et al. 2008)

15. Establish global and regional strategic grain reserves Global emergency reserve:created with grain donations from large food exporters and producers, e.g. US, France, China, India located also in poor food importing countries, e.g. Horn of Africaowned and managed by an institution such as WFP Some regional initiatives are emerging e.g. Asean+3 Emergency Rice Reserve, Sahel and West Africa Regional Food Stocks (RESOGEST) etc.Properly managed reserves can address food crises, but operating costs must be low and challenges must be overcome

16. Support transparent, fair, and open global tradeEliminate harmful trade restrictions and prevent new ones to:increase market efficiencyreduce price fluctuationsPotential costs of a failed Doha Round could be high (Bouet and Laborde 2009):11.5% loss of developing country exports

17. US$353 billion loss in world welfareQuick completion of the Doha Round is crucial

18. Promote smallholder productivityInvest in agricultural R&D and infrastructureAgricultural research and new technologies tailored to smallholdersAccess to high-quality seeds and fertilizerRural infrastructure (electricity and feeder roads in particular)Promote innovations for smallholders Financial services e.g. community banking Risk-management mechanisms e.g. weather-based index insurance Institutional arrangements e.g. producer cooperatives

19. The new role of agriculture, especially small-scale farming, must be leveraged

20. Agric-led growth is still important for poverty reduction…Poverty-growth elasticities Source: Diao et al. 2010

21. …agric-led growth is still important for hunger reductionPoverty-growth and calorie-growth elasticities, Tanzania (2000-07) Source: Pauw and Thurlow 2010

22. …but a new role of agriculture is emergingSmallholder agriculture can, especially, be leveraged for: improving nutrition and health

23. promoting climate change adaptation and mitigation

24. building conflict resilience

25. narrowing gender gapsImproving nutrition and health Improved productivity and competitiveness of small farmers can lead to:more nutritious, less expensive food, and increased incomes

26. improved nutritional content of main staple foods

27. production of more diverse foods of higher nutritional content

28. improved agricultural practices to decrease the risks of agriculture-associated diseasesPromoting climate change adaptation and mitigationBy 2030 the cost of adaptation has been projected to be US$40 - 170 billion (UNFCC, 2007)Adaptation-driven actions can have positive mitigation consequences -> residue returned to fields to improve water-holding capacity also sequester carbonMitigation potential in agriculture is estimated to be worth US$32 - 420 billion* (IFPRI, 2009)Mitigation-driven actions in agriculture can have positive adaptation consequences -> carbon sequestration projects with positive drought preparedness aspects* at carbon prices between US$20 and US$100 (t CO2-eq.-1)

29. Building conflict resilienceAgriculture, especially small-scale farming, is the largest source of jobs in many conflict-prone countries (World Bank, 2011)Agriculture has the potential to reduce the main causes of conflict e.g.poverty, underemployment, and inequalities in natural resources (Collier et al. 2003)Agriculture can help to re-establish livelihoods and build resilience in conflict-prone countries (World Bank, 2011)

30. Narrowing gender gapsWomen make up a majority of small farmers Lower productivity persists in female-owned plots and female-headed households (Peterman et al. 2010)If women had the same access to productive resources as men (FAO 2011) -> total agricultural output could increase by 2.5 to 4% -> global number of undernourished people could reduce by 12 to 17%

31. Investments and policies must leverage the new role of smallholder agriculture for development