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Global Pulse Scenario: Consumption, Production and Trade
Global pulse consumption is increasing but per capita consumption is declining. Production is around 72 million tons annually from 80 million hectares, with the top five pulses (dry beans, chickpeas, dry peas, cowpeas, and lentils) accounting for about 80% of production. Yields are increasing in developed countries but stagnant in developing countries, where most pulses are grown. Trade in pulses is growing and around 12 million tons annually, with developed countries exporting 65% and developing countries importing 82%. Future outlook predicts global pulse demand to increase by 10-23% by 2030, requiring a doubling of yields or additional area to meet demand.
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Global Pulse Scenario: Consumption, Production and Trade
- 1. Global Pulse Scenario:Consumption, Production and Trade P K Joshi and P Parthasarthy Rao South Asia Regional Office International Food Policy Research Institute E-mail: p.joshi@cigar.org; Web: www.ifpri-org International Conference on “Pulses for Health, Nutrition and Sustainable Agriculture in Drylands” Marrakech, Morocco, April 18-20, 2016
- 2. Outline Pulse consumption, demandand production Regional patterns of pulses production Global trade and prices of pulses Global future outlook for pulses Conclusions and way forward
- 3. Consumption and utilizationof pulses 0 20 40 60 80 100 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 Food(%) World Developed Developing 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 Feed(%) 0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00 14.00 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 Percapitafood World Developed Developing • Global demand for pulses is increasing • Around 70 m t in 2011-13 compared to 42 m t in 1980-81 • But per capita consumption declined (10 kg in 1961 to 6.5 kg in 2011); slow rise in recent years • Diverse uses for food & feed • Developing countries 80% as food • Developed countries <40% as food
- 4. An illustration fromIndia: pulse utilization Direct food 13.8 m t (69%) Value added products 4.0 m t (20%) Seed 1.4 m t (7%) Miscellaneous 0.8 m t (4%)
- 5. Drivers of householdconsumption: role of demand elasticities Consumer Income Price Overall All 0.206 -0.456 -0.250 Poor 0.500 -0.699 -0.199 Rich 0.098 -0.345 -0.250 Price elasticity is more than income elasticity Net elasticity is -0.250 Poor are more sensitive to these elasticities Pe= -0.666 and Ie= 0.500 Consumption will be stabilized if income increase is more than price increase
- 6. Pulses production andarea Roughly 72 m t of pulses are produced from about 80 m ha It was 45 mt from 64 m ha area in 1981-83 Global pulses production during 1980s increased impressively (3.7%); stagnated (0.1%) during 1990s; and picked-up (2.2%) during 2000s. Yield gains was the main source of production increase during 1980s (62%) but area during 2000 (63%) Yields were increasing in developed countries, while area in developing countries Share of Europe and Latin America is declining Pulses finding new niches in North America, Oceania and many African countries
- 7. Area and productionof pulses 0.1 33.7 9.3 14.1 2.9 3.7 1.2 20.9 5.1 6.2 2.8 0.3 31.9 5.8 16.8 8.9 6.5 1.5 14.6 6.2 6.3 1.2 Bambara beans Beans, dry Broad beans, horse beans, dry Chick peas Cow peas, dry Lentils Lupins Peas, dry • Five pulses contribute about 80% of pulses production • Dry beans tops the list (32%) followed by chickpea (17%) dry peas (14.6%); Cowpea (9%) and lentils (6%) • Share of cowpea and lentil increased from 6 to 15% • Chickpea share marginally increased but dry beans declined 1981-83 2011-13
- 8. Yield of pulsesversus cereals (kg/ha) 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 1961 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 Yield(kg/ha) Cereals Pulses 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 5500 1961 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 Yield(kg/ha) Developed cereals Developing cereals Developed pulses Developing pulses • Global pulse yield is less than 1000 kg/ha; which used to be 550 kg/ha in 1961 • But, global cereals yields increased rapidly • 1500 kg/ha in 1961 to 4000 kg/ha in 2013 • Cereal yields increased significantly both in developed and developing countries • Pulse yields increased mainly in developed countries until mid 1990s and thereafter stagnated • In developing countries pulse yields were stagnant throughout and increased marginally only from mid 2005
- 9. Yield of allpulses in different countries, 2011-13 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 Canada UnitedStatesofAmerica China Turkey Ethiopia RussianFederation Australia Myanmar Brazil Nigeria Iran(IslamicRepublicof) UnitedRepublicofTanzania Mexico India Pakistan Kenya Uganda BurkinaFaso Mozambique Niger Yield(kg/ha) There is large inter-regional and inter-country yield variation Average yields of developed countries was > 1.2 t/ha Canada > 2 t/ha; US near 2 t/ha Developing countries average yield was <1 t/ha Myanmar and Ethiopia are exception Most of the African and S Asian countries yields are < 500 kg/ha
- 10. India: yield gapsbetween existing and potential (kg/ha) Source: Singh, NP and Saxena, MC. 2016. Towards self-sufficiency of pulses in India, Base paper for NAAS Brainstorming workshop on 8 April 2016 596 432 797 792 1014 890 843 1047 1433 1435 1300 1400 1400 1800 1800 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 Blackgram Greengram lentil Pigeonpea Chickpea Yield gaps in pulses Existing Demonstration Potential High yield gaps ranging from 75% in lentil to 224% in green gram Causes of high yield gaps Poor quality of seed Poor management practices Bridge Yield gap I Chickpea production will increase by 4.3 mt; and pigeon pea by 2.4 mt Little efforts will take pulse production to 26-27 mt
- 11. Changing regional patternsin pulses production Asia & Africa share about 70% of all pulses; showing rising trends Southeast Asia is emerging fastest growing region in pulses (7.4%) Dry beans, chickpea and pigeon pea are gaining importance Africa is also showing fast growing in pulses production (4.6%) Chickpea and pigeon pea in East Africa and Cowpea in West Africa Chickpea and pigeon pea showing increasing trends in South Asia Among developed regions, North America led by Canada and Oceania are showing rising trends (4.1%) Lentils in Canada and Chickpea and lentils in Oceania
- 12. Growing importance ofpulses in many countries - especially more vulnerable population 8.4 9.1 14 10 11.7 6.8 21.8 12.5 6.6 10.3 14.8 17.7 18.3 20.6 21.6 26.6 30.6 36.2 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Nigeria Tanzania India Uganda Burkina FasoMozambique Kenya Nigeria Myanmar Share of pulse area in arable land, % 1980-82 2011-13
- 13. Region-wise self-sufficiency inpulses 0.96 2.27 3.03 1.56 0.89 0.93 1.02 0.93 0.72 0.81 1.02 1.24 1.55 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 Self-sufficiency ratio At aggregate level, Developed countries have surplus while deficit in developing countries Northern America has very surplus, while Asia has high deficit Self-sufficiency is increasing in developed countries and further declining in developing countries West and South Asia are highly deficit in pulses Self-sufficiency is declining fast over the years
- 14. Pulse trade: changingpatterns Global pulse trade is about 12 million tons; it was 3 m t in 1980-82 and 6.5 m t in 1990-92 It is about 18% of total pulse production Developed countries shares 65% of all exports Developing countries shares 82% of all imports; South Asia shares about 40% of imports Exports zooming from North America from 1990s led by Canada Canada, Myanmar, USA, Australia and China account for 75% of all exports India is largest importing country (3-4 m t) India, China, BD, Pakistan and Egypt account about 62% of all imports 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 19801983198619891992199519982001200420072010 Exports 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 19801983198619891992199519982001200420072010 Imports World (Pulses) Developed (Pulses) Developing (Pulses) World (Cereals) Developed (Cereals) Developing (Cereals) Exports Imports
- 15. Growing importance ofdry peas in trade Imports Exports
- 16. Improve pulse valuechain and correct price policy 3175 3075 4650 4425 4425 6000 8900 9250 10200 12000 6500 9500 10250 12000 13500 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 Chickpea Lentil Greengram blackgram Pegionpea MSP Wholesale Retail Consumer
- 17. Pulse prices 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 1991 19941997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 Producerprices(US$/tonne) Canada Spain Russian Federation United Kingdom United States of America Dry peas 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 Beans, dry Broad beans, horse beans, dry Chick peas Lentils Peas, dry Pulses (Total) Stage I: 1961-71 almost stagnated Stage II: 1971-85 increasing; peak for chickpea in 1979-80 & most pulses in 1981 Stage III: 1985-03 volatile; peak for chickpea in 1995 Stage IV: 2003 onward rising trend with peak in 2008 Dry peas: Lower prices than other pulses; with peak in 2008 and then rising
- 18. Future pulse outlook(Source: Clancey 2009; Kumar et al 2009; Rao et al 2010) Global pulse consumption may grow by 10% in coming decade and 23% by 2030; more rapidly in Africa and Asia Pulse consumption in Africa may rise 27% in next decade and 50% by 2030 In Asia, pulses consumption would increase by 12% in 2020 and by 24% in 2030 Yields to increase more than 1.5 times; not easy task Or additional area under pulses to 6 m ha by 2020 and 10 m ha by 2030 Prices of pulses will increase Rising demand Non-availability of high-yielding technologies Trade may increase; developing countries to import more Shift in consumption towards value added products More private sector participation
- 19. Conclusions and wayforward Demand for pulses is growing but supply constraints will lead to rise in prices and increase trade Pulses production and trade scenario in changing New countries are producing pulses and exporting to deficit countries Global level Increase funding for pulse research Incentives for improved technologies to public as well as private sector Effective trade National level Bridge yield gaps to increase domestic production Improve pulse value chains to benefit producers and consumers Attract private sector in pulses production, processing and marketing Promote innovative institutions for scale
- 20. International Year ofPulses- 2016 Commit ensuring pulses to poor at affordable prices Thank you