Global pulse consumption is increasing but per capita consumption is declining. Production is around 72 million tons annually from 80 million hectares, with the top five pulses (dry beans, chickpeas, dry peas, cowpeas, and lentils) accounting for about 80% of production. Yields are increasing in developed countries but stagnant in developing countries, where most pulses are grown. Trade in pulses is growing and around 12 million tons annually, with developed countries exporting 65% and developing countries importing 82%. Future outlook predicts global pulse demand to increase by 10-23% by 2030, requiring a doubling of yields or additional area to meet demand.

1. Global Pulse Scenario: Consumption, Production and Trade
P K Joshi and P Parthasarthy Rao
South Asia Regional Office
International Food Policy Research Institute
E-mail: p.joshi@cigar.org; Web: www.ifpri-org
International Conference on
“Pulses for Health, Nutrition and Sustainable Agriculture in Drylands”
Marrakech, Morocco, April 18-20, 2016

2. Outline
Pulse consumption, demand and production
Regional patterns of pulses production
Global trade and prices of pulses
Global future outlook for pulses
Conclusions and way forward

3. Consumption and utilization of pulses
0
20
40
60
80
100
1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011
Food(%)
World Developed Developing
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011
Feed(%)
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011
Percapitafood
World Developed Developing
• Global demand for pulses is increasing
• Around 70 m t in 2011-13 compared to 42 m t in
1980-81
• But per capita consumption declined (10 kg in
1961 to 6.5 kg in 2011); slow rise in recent years
• Diverse uses for food & feed
• Developing countries 80% as food
• Developed countries <40% as food

4. An illustration from India: pulse utilization
 Direct food 13.8 m t (69%)
 Value added products 4.0 m t (20%)
 Seed 1.4 m t (7%)
 Miscellaneous 0.8 m t (4%)

5. Drivers of household consumption: role of demand elasticities
Consumer Income Price Overall
All 0.206 -0.456 -0.250
Poor 0.500 -0.699 -0.199
Rich 0.098 -0.345 -0.250
 Price elasticity is more than
income elasticity
 Net elasticity is -0.250
 Poor are more sensitive to
these elasticities
 Pe= -0.666 and Ie= 0.500
 Consumption will be stabilized
if income increase is more than
price increase

6. Pulses production and area
 Roughly 72 m t of pulses are produced from about 80 m ha
 It was 45 mt from 64 m ha area in 1981-83
 Global pulses production during 1980s increased impressively (3.7%); stagnated
(0.1%) during 1990s; and picked-up (2.2%) during 2000s.
 Yield gains was the main source of production
increase during 1980s (62%) but area during 2000 (63%)
 Yields were increasing in developed countries,
while area in developing countries
 Share of Europe and Latin America is declining
 Pulses finding new niches in North America,
Oceania and many African countries

7. Area and production of pulses
0.1
33.7
9.3
14.1
2.9
3.7
1.2
20.9
5.1 6.2
2.8
0.3
31.9
5.8
16.8
8.9
6.5
1.5
14.6
6.2
6.3
1.2
Bambara beans
Beans, dry
Broad beans, horse
beans, dry
Chick peas
Cow peas, dry
Lentils
Lupins
Peas, dry
• Five pulses contribute about 80% of pulses production
• Dry beans tops the list
(32%) followed by chickpea
(17%) dry peas (14.6%);
Cowpea (9%) and lentils (6%)
• Share of cowpea and lentil
increased from 6 to 15%
• Chickpea share marginally
increased but dry beans
declined
1981-83 2011-13

8. Yield of pulses versus cereals (kg/ha)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
1961
1965
1969
1973
1977
1981
1985
1989
1993
1997
2001
2005
2009
2013
Yield(kg/ha)
Cereals Pulses
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
5500
1961
1965
1969
1973
1977
1981
1985
1989
1993
1997
2001
2005
2009
2013
Yield(kg/ha)
Developed cereals Developing cereals
Developed pulses Developing pulses
• Global pulse yield is less than 1000 kg/ha;
which used to be 550 kg/ha in 1961
• But, global cereals yields increased rapidly
• 1500 kg/ha in 1961 to 4000 kg/ha in 2013
• Cereal yields increased significantly both
in developed and developing countries
• Pulse yields increased mainly in developed
countries until mid 1990s and thereafter
stagnated
• In developing countries pulse yields were
stagnant throughout and increased marginally
only from mid 2005

9. Yield of all pulses in different countries, 2011-13
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Canada
UnitedStatesofAmerica
China
Turkey
Ethiopia
RussianFederation
Australia
Myanmar
Brazil
Nigeria
Iran(IslamicRepublicof)
UnitedRepublicofTanzania
Mexico
India
Pakistan
Kenya
Uganda
BurkinaFaso
Mozambique
Niger
Yield(kg/ha)
 There is large inter-regional and
inter-country yield variation
 Average yields of developed
countries was > 1.2 t/ha
 Canada > 2 t/ha; US near 2 t/ha
 Developing countries average
yield was <1 t/ha
 Myanmar and Ethiopia are exception
 Most of the African and S Asian
countries yields are < 500 kg/ha

10. India: yield gaps between existing and potential (kg/ha)
Source: Singh, NP and Saxena, MC. 2016. Towards self-sufficiency of pulses in India, Base paper for NAAS Brainstorming workshop on 8 April 2016
596
432
797 792
1014
890
843
1047
1433 1435
1300
1400 1400
1800 1800
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
Blackgram Greengram lentil Pigeonpea Chickpea
Yield gaps in pulses
Existing Demonstration Potential
 High yield gaps ranging from
75% in lentil to 224% in green
gram
 Causes of high yield gaps
 Poor quality of seed
 Poor management practices
 Bridge Yield gap I
 Chickpea production will
increase by 4.3 mt; and pigeon
pea by 2.4 mt
 Little efforts will take pulse
production to 26-27 mt

11. Changing regional patterns in pulses production
 Asia & Africa share about 70% of all pulses; showing rising trends
 Southeast Asia is emerging fastest growing region in pulses (7.4%)
 Dry beans, chickpea and pigeon pea are gaining importance
 Africa is also showing fast growing in pulses production (4.6%)
 Chickpea and pigeon pea in East Africa and Cowpea in West Africa
 Chickpea and pigeon pea showing increasing trends in South Asia
 Among developed regions, North America led by Canada and
Oceania are showing rising trends (4.1%)
 Lentils in Canada and Chickpea and lentils in Oceania

12. Growing importance of pulses in many countries
- especially more vulnerable population
8.4 9.1
14
10
11.7
6.8
21.8
12.5
6.6
10.3
14.8
17.7 18.3
20.6
21.6
26.6
30.6
36.2
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Nigeria Tanzania India Uganda Burkina FasoMozambique Kenya Nigeria Myanmar
Share of pulse area in arable land, %
1980-82 2011-13

13. Region-wise self-sufficiency in pulses
0.96
2.27
3.03
1.56
0.89 0.93 1.02 0.93
0.72 0.81
1.02
1.24
1.55
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
Self-sufficiency ratio  At aggregate level, Developed
countries have surplus while deficit
in developing countries
 Northern America has very surplus, while
Asia has high deficit
 Self-sufficiency is increasing in
developed countries and further
declining in developing countries
 West and South Asia are highly
deficit in pulses
 Self-sufficiency is declining fast over the
years

14. Pulse trade: changing patterns
 Global pulse trade is about 12 million tons; it
was 3 m t in 1980-82 and 6.5 m t in 1990-92
 It is about 18% of total pulse production
 Developed countries shares 65% of all exports
 Developing countries shares 82% of all imports; South
Asia shares about 40% of imports
 Exports zooming from North America from
1990s led by Canada
 Canada, Myanmar, USA, Australia and China account
for 75% of all exports
 India is largest importing country (3-4 m t)
 India, China, BD, Pakistan and Egypt account about
62% of all imports
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
19801983198619891992199519982001200420072010
Exports
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
19801983198619891992199519982001200420072010
Imports
World (Pulses) Developed (Pulses)
Developing (Pulses) World (Cereals)
Developed (Cereals) Developing (Cereals)
Exports
Imports

15. Growing importance of dry peas in trade
Imports
Exports

16. Improve pulse value chain and correct price policy
3175 3075
4650 4425 4425
6000
8900 9250
10200
12000
6500
9500
10250
12000
13500
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
Chickpea Lentil Greengram blackgram Pegionpea
MSP Wholesale Retail
Consumer

17. Pulse prices
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012
Producerprices(US$/tonne)
Canada Spain
Russian Federation United Kingdom
United States of America
Dry peas
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011
Beans, dry Broad beans, horse beans, dry
Chick peas Lentils
Peas, dry Pulses (Total)
Stage I: 1961-71 almost stagnated
Stage II: 1971-85 increasing; peak for chickpea in 1979-80 & most pulses in 1981
Stage III: 1985-03 volatile; peak for chickpea in 1995
Stage IV: 2003 onward rising trend with peak in 2008
Dry peas: Lower prices than other pulses; with peak in 2008 and then rising

18. Future pulse outlook (Source: Clancey 2009; Kumar et al 2009; Rao et al 2010)
 Global pulse consumption may grow by 10% in coming decade and 23% by 2030;
more rapidly in Africa and Asia
 Pulse consumption in Africa may rise 27% in next decade and 50% by 2030
 In Asia, pulses consumption would increase by 12% in 2020 and by 24% in 2030
 Yields to increase more than 1.5 times; not easy task
 Or additional area under pulses to 6 m ha by 2020 and 10 m ha by 2030
 Prices of pulses will increase
 Rising demand
 Non-availability of high-yielding technologies
 Trade may increase; developing countries to import more
 Shift in consumption towards value added products
 More private sector participation

19. Conclusions and way forward
 Demand for pulses is growing but
supply constraints will lead to rise in
prices and increase trade
 Pulses production and trade scenario
in changing
 New countries are producing pulses and
exporting to deficit countries
 Global level
 Increase funding for pulse research
 Incentives for improved technologies to
public as well as private sector
 Effective trade
 National level
 Bridge yield gaps to increase domestic
production
 Improve pulse value chains to benefit
producers and consumers
 Attract private sector in pulses
production, processing and marketing
 Promote innovative institutions for scale

20. International Year of Pulses- 2016
Commit ensuring pulses to poor at affordable prices
Thank you