Impact of climate change on agriculture and food A Lecture by Mr Allah Dad Khan Visiting professor the University of Agriculture Peshawar Pakistan

2. Climate Change and its Impacts
on Agriculture and Food
Security
A Presentation By
Mr. Allah dad Khan
Visiting Professor the
University of Agriculture
Peshawar allahdad52@gmail.com

3. Climate Changes
Global Over View
3

4. Climate Change
Many evidences are showing the world’s climate is
changing, and the changes will have an enormous
impact on people, ecosystems, and energy use.
According to the latest report of the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), average global
temperature is likely to rise by another 2 to 8.6 degrees F
by 2100.
Higher temperatures will have an impact on yields
while changes in rainfall could affect both crop quality
and quantity. Food access: Climate change could
increase the prices of major crops in some regions. For
the most vulnerable people, lower agriculturaloutput
means lower incomes
4

5. Climate change and food security
Climate change will affect all four dimensions of food
security: food availability, food accessibility, food
utilization and food systems stability. It will have an
impact on human health, livelihood assets, food
production and distribution channels, as well as
changing purchasing power and market flows. Its
impacts will be both short term, resulting from more
frequent and more intense extreme weather events,
and long term, caused by changing temperatures
and precipitation patterns,
5

6. Increasing The Risk Of Hunger
 Extreme weather events
Climate change increases the frequency and intensity of
some disasters such as droughts, floods and storms. This
has an adverse impact on livelihoods and food security.
Climate-related disasters have the potential to destroy crops,
critical infrastructure, and key community assets, therefore
deteriorating livelihoods and exacerbating poverty.
 Long-term and gradual climate risks
Sea-level will rise as a result of climate change, affecting
livelihoods in coastal areas and river deltas. Accelerated
glacial melt will also affect the quantity and reliability of water
available and change patterns of flooding and drought
6

7. Food Security And Nutrition
 Food availability: Changes in climatic conditions have
already affected the production of some staple crops, and
future climate change threatens to exacerbate this. Higher
temperatures will have an impact on yields while changes
in rainfall could affect both crop quality and quantity.
 Food access: Climate change could increase the prices
of major crops in some regions. For the most vulnerable
people, lower agricultural output means lower incomes.
Under these conditions, the poorest people — who
already use most of their income on food — sacrifice
additional income and other assets to meet their
nutritional requirements, or resort to poor coping
strategies.
7

8. Food Security And Nutrition
 Food utilization: Climate-related risks affect calorie
intake, particularly in areas where chronic food
insecurity is already a significant problem. Changing
climatic conditions could also create a vicious cycle of
disease and hunger. Nutrition is likely to be affected by
climate change through related impacts on food
security, dietary diversity, care practices and health.
 Food stability: The climatic variability produced by
more frequent and intense weather events can upset
the stability of individuals’ and government food
security strategies, creating fluctuations in food
availability, access and utilization.
8

9. Climate Impacts on Food Security
 During the last two decades, 200 million have
been lifted out of hunger and the prevalence of
chronic malnutrition in children has decreased
from 40 to 26 percent.
 In spite of this progress, according to the World
Bank, 702 million people still live in extreme
poverty and, according to this year's report on the
State of Food Insecurity in the World (SOFI), 793
million people are undernourished
9

10. Climate Change links between Agriculture and Food
Security
1. Climate change is generated by emissions of
greenhouse gases that in turn are largely dependent on
fossil energy use (mainly coal and oil) and by methane and
nitrous oxide emissions from agriculture;
2.Food production, distribution and consumption depend
strongly on fossil fuel energy consumption; high oil prices
affect costs of production, processing, transport,
conservation; at the same time,agriculture’s important role
in greenhouse gas (GHG) production is increasing as
rising incomes drive up demand for meat proteins;
10

11. Climate change links between Agriculture and Food
Security
3. Climate change hits agricultural productivity directly
through drought, floods, pests, diseases and catastrophic
events, as well as by temperature changes that affect plant
productivity;
4. In order to anticipate the foresighted peak in oil
reserves, many governments are subsidizing the
production and trade of biofuels, so contributing to
increased food prices;
11

12. Climate change links between Agriculture and Food
Security
5.In order to diversify financial assets, investors are turning
their attention to agricultural commodities, amplifying price
increases;
6.In order to safeguard their own domestic food security,
countries with high populations and/or low agricultural
potential are competing with small farmers in other
countries for land and water by buying or contracting large
tracts of land.
12

13. Climate Impacts on Food
Security
 One of the most significant impacts of climate
change is the potential increase in food
insecurity due to changes in the productivity
of agricultural land, seasonal variability, and
higher magnitude of disasters. Climate
change interacts with the different drivers of
food insecurity to create new risks (but it can
also create opportunities) and can affect all
dimensions of food securit
13

14. 14
Factors related to climate change
a) Indiscriminate use of natural resources
b) Global warming and meteorological observatories
c) Excessive and unplanned urbanization
d) Unplanned industrial growth
e) Imbalanced use of agricultural inputs and extreme farming
f) Population influx / pressure

15. 15
Factors related to climate change
a) Effect of industrial pollution son marine life
h) Flood , Drought and other natural disasters
i) Land erosion land sliding
ii) Pollution of rivers, streams by different means
iii) Waste water and waste crops residues
iv) Wastes of marbles specially in Warsak Peshawar Jehangira Swabi

16. 16

17. Source: Stern Review
Critical Challenges: Climate change
17

18. Changes in Human and Natural Drivers of
climate Changes
1.„CO2 concentrations have increased from 280 ppm (since 1750) to
368 ppm in 2000 (31.4%) to 379 in 2005 (35.4% rise) and 396.18 ppm in
April 2012
2. CH4 concentrations have increased from a pre-industrial value of
about 715 ppb to 1732 ppb in early 1990s (142% rise) and is 1774ppb in
2005 (148% rise). The rise since 1990s is only 2.4%.
3.N2O concentrations have increased from a pre-industrial value of
about 270 ppb to 319 ppb in 2005 (18% rise). The growth rate has about
270 ppb to 319 ppb in 2005 (18% rise). The growth rate has been
approximately constant since 1980s. More than a third of all N2O
emissions are anthropogenic and are primarily due to agriculture
18

19. Changes in Human and Natural Drivers of
climate Changes
Temperature
1.11 of the last 12 years (1995-2006) except 1996 rank among the 12
warmest years in the instrumental record of global surface temperature
(since 1850).
2. Widespread changes in extreme temperatures have been observed
over the last 50 years. Cold days, cold nights and frost have become
less frequent, while hot days, hot nights, and heat waves have become
more frequent
19

20. Impact of Climate
changes
20

21. AGRICULTURE AND CLIMATE CHANGE:
VIRTUOUS CIRCLE
AGRICULTURE
CONTRIBUTES
TO FIGHTING CLIMATE
CHANGE
AGRICULTURAL
VULNERABILITY
IS REDUCED
AGRICULTURE BUSSINES EXPANSION
IS BASED ON SUSTAINABLE PRACTICES INCLUDING
FOREST AREA INCREMENT, PROTECTION AND RESTORATION
AGRICULTURE INCREASES:
AGRO ECOSYSTEMS AND FOREST ECOSYSTEMS
CLIMATE STABILIZATION
GLOBAL SERVICE
21

22. Impact of Climate Change in Agriculture
1.„Fourteen crops were considered for impact assessment (at
0.3ºC per decade). All the selected crops were found to be
suffering due to heat stress.
2. significant increase in growing degree days reduces the
growing season length for the crop.
3. 8% and 15% increase in GDD in 2020 and 2050.„With rainfall
decreases by 6%, net irrigation water requirements could
increase by 29%.
22

23. Impact of Climate Change in Agriculture
4. The areas suitable for agriculture, the length of growing
seasons and the yield potential of food staples are all projected
to decline.
5. Changing climate patterns will have important implications for
water availability.
6. Across the globe, sea levels could rise rapidly with
accelerated ice sheet disintegration.
23

24. Impact of Climate Change in Agriculture
7. Climate change will affect human health through variables
such as changes in temperature, exposure to natural disasters,
access to food and air quality.
8. Changes induced by climate change are likely to result in
species range shifts and changes in tree productivity, adding
further stress to forest ecosystems
24

25. Impacts on Agriculture contd
9.Soils are sources of concern as well. The global crop
land availability is in decline as a result of population
growth, soil degradation, soil losses and soil sealing,
shrinking water resources, salt water intrusion into
coastal aquifers, as well as rising temperatures that
are leading to falling land productivity.
10.Loss of agri-biodiversity is associated with a range
of causal factors, including destruction and
fragmentation of habitats and the increasing use of
land for non-agricultural purposes, emissions,
agricultural intensification, etc. (Millenium Ecosystem
Assessment, 2005)
25

26. Impacts on Agriculture contd
11.Landslides tend to occur more frequently in areas
with clayey sub-soil, steep slopes, intense and
abundant precipitation and land abandonment, such
as the Alpine and the Mediterranean regions. Again
this trend is accelerated by the intensification of
pasture use.
12.The contamination with pesticides in surface water,
ground water and partly in drinking water, in particular
after heavy rainfalls, is another problem area
13.Pandemic pest and diseases in animal and plant
production The movement of plant pests, animal
diseases and invasive alien aquatic organisms across
physical and political boundaries threatens food
security in new ways in a climate-changing world.
26

27. AGRICULTURE AND CLIMATE CHANGE:
NEED TO CHANGE A PERFECT VICIOUS CIRCLE
AGRICULTURE
CONTRIBUTES
TO CLIMATE CHANGE
CLIMATE CHANGE
INCREASES
VULNERABILITY OF
AGRICULTURE
AGRICULTURAL FRONTIER
EXPANSION
IS BASED ON
DEFORESTATION
AGRICULTURE REDUCES
FOREST ECOSYSTEMS,
CLIMATE STABILIZATION,
GLOBAL SERVICE
27

28. Adaptation in Agriculture
 Changes in Cropping Patterns
 „Sugar beet instead of sugarcane
 „Adjusting Cropping Pattern with Water Availability
 „More share of cropped area under oil seed crops
 „Improved Productivity and Production Management
 „Farm forestry
28

29. Recommendat
ion
29

30. Recommendation by experts
 Possibilities to reduce GHG emissions and to mitigate change
effects associated with “the agricultural sec to understand not only
the functioning of ecosystems but also their criticality.
 Therefore the systems approaches needed have to be highlighted to
further develop low external input concepts which are more
diversified and "greener" (the next generation of agricultural
research) paving the way for alternative models .
30

31. Recommendation by experts
 To quickly improve the capacities of the agricultural knowledge
system/ information communication technology and to improve the
response capacity of the Agriculture , food security, Accordingly
restoring soil organic matter
 To encourage more systems oriented research to better understand
key issues in terms of functioning and criticality, better integration
and coordination of research efforts , Rain water harvesting, Drip
and Sprinkler irrigation system, efficient use of water , bio pesticides,
bio aab. New
31

32. Recommendation by experts Contd
 Strengthening of disaster management department and
coordination with nation building departments at provincial
level ,Updating meteorological Departments activities through
SUPARCO and satellite imaginary , warning for flood etc
 Agro/Biofuel 3rd generation ( Diesel Plant Jatropa). Bio-farm
waste need to be handled for energy generation such as bio-
gas plants/ mechanization plants, etc
32

33. Recommendation by experts Contd
 Agriculture policies , Agricultural models; trade policies; land
policies Should be framed inviting all stake holders at Federal
and provincial level addressing the climate change.
 The adoption of integrated crop management as the preferred
crop protection.
 Watershed management , range management , afforestation
projects to be initiated
33

34. Sprinkler Irrigation
 Sprinkler irrigation is a method of applying irrigation water which is
similar to natural rainfall.
34

35. Drip Irrigation
35

36. Energy Conservation and Laser Leveling
36

37. Solar Energy
37

38. Bio Gas
38

39. 39