The document discusses the rapid growth of urbanization and its implications, highlighting challenges cities face, such as health risks and crime. It notes that a significant portion of global GDP growth will stem from lesser-known cities in China, while many Western cities struggle with economic decline. The text also emphasizes trends in city branding and the vision for smart cities, although concrete implementations remain largely unfulfilled.

1. Cities forever?
10 Insights into global urbanisation

2. Growth
Stories
Bringing you a flavour of business
growth trends...in just 5 minutes
A Futures Coaching initiative
www.futurescoaching.com

3. shifting sands
Over half of us now live in cities
According to the WHO this is NOT good news
They say cities face a triple threat of:
infectious diseases, chronic non-
communicable diseases, and risks from road
accidents, injuries, violence and crime

4. densification
However, densification increases communication,
accelerates the spread of ideas
and can lead to innovative cultures

5. extremistan
The theory of extremistan is that society increasingly
rejects the average and invests in the best of the best
In cities this translates to the
iconic buildings in the CBDs of
the World's greatest cities
In 2010, rents in the City of
London rose 25% and Shanghai
28%
Small compared to Rio +47%
and Hong Kong, a wacking
51%!
Source: Cushman and Wakefield, 2011

6. secret cities
12% of all global growth in GDP over the next decade will
come from the 50 largest secondary and tertiary cities in
China. Yet who, in the West, has heard of most of them?
Changchun Haikou Lanzhou Shaoxing Wuhan
Changsha Hangzhou Luoyang Shenyang Wuxi
Changzhou Harbin Nanchang Shijiazhuang Xi'an
Chengdu Hefei Nanjing Suzhou Xiamen
Chongquing Hohhot Nanning Taiyuan Xiangyang
Dalian Jiaxing Nantong Tangshan Xuzhou
Dongguan Jilin Ningbo Tianjin Yantai
Foshan Jinan Qingdao Urumqi Zhengzhou
Fuzhou Jinhua Quanzhou Weifang Zhongshan
Guiyang Kunming Shantou Wenzhou Zhuhai
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, China 50, 2012

7. cities or nothing
In many countries around the world, virtually all wealth
and opportunities are found in urban areas
Property investors in Africa, for example, need not look
outside the major townships

8. cities becoming nothing
Urbanisation has been going on long enough now
for examples to emerge of failing cities
Gelsenkirchen in Germany's Ruhr region is over-indebted;
any city that can't invest goes kaput
America's Detroit lost 25% of its population
from 2000-2010 – what does that do to a city?

9. slumurbia
America's investment in suburbs has been called the
greatest waste of resources of all time
As pump prices climb towards $4 a gallon,
City Centres are becoming attractive again
This is leaving many stranded assets. For example
derelict shopping malls are being converted into business
campuses and Universities (examples of both in San
Antonio) and mixed use schemes (eg. Natick in Boston)

10. branding
Branding cities has become a key trend
London as the world's financial centre; Rio as gay friendly; Paris in
the heart of romantics everywhere
In some cases, such branding will be used to revive dying cities,
as with Japan's Yubari City – a City with great debts but very low
divorce rates

11. green cities
Amongst the multitude of greening initiatives,
how about this?
Gotham Greens in New York has 15,000 square feet of
green housing on its rooftop and produces 80 tons
of vegetables for the local community

12. There is a dream of smart cities where sensors connect everything seemlessly to
provide efficient transport, waste and energy management
These dreams are shared by IBM, Singapore Municipality etc.
Such initiatives will remain just that, dreams. Almost no examples of concrete
initiatives exist (Masdar City comes closest, perhaps). Planners get rapidly stuck on
lack of public-private financing and competition between suppliers
smart cities

13. What has Futures Coaching
been upto during March 2012?
Analysing social change amongst Filipino and Indonesian
women and impacts on health marketing
Running deep-dive consumer research on social media
Presenting to a retail property audience on consumer
futures & impact on retail
Developing future-facing insights to revolutionise branch
formats for a retail bank
Pitching for the future of human communications
Blogging on Asian trends and growth strategies

14. Working with Future Coaching

Conference speeches on major trends - accelerating
management awareness

Workshopping trends – evaluating impacts on
businesses or brands; future-proofing existing offers

Brainstorming sessions – innovating to harness growth

Reports on the future of sectors or industries –
jumping ahead of the curve; achieving thought
leadership; building in longevity

Training for consumer insight teams – boosting
internal futuring capabilities

15. LONDON • PARIS
Website: www.futurescoaching.com
Blog: http://futurescoaching.typepad.com
Email: chris@futurescoaching.com