Comprehensive New Urbanism for Comprehensive Plans - Thorne-Lyman - CNU17

1. Making the Invisible Visible:
Understanding the Demographic and Economic
Forces that Shape Land Use and Development
Abby Thorne-Lyman
Congress for the New Urbanism
June 11, 2009

2. Presentation Overview
 Why are demographic and economic forces
important?
 How to evaluate a local economy
 Bringing transportation into the story
 Lessons learned for comprehensive planning

3. Why Are Demographic and
Economic Forces Important

4. The Economy (Jobs & Wealth)
Workers (and their
families)
Population and Job
Growth
Buildings,
Infrastructure,
Purview of the Comp Plan Public
Services

5. Coming Demographic Shifts

6. U.S. Household Structure is Changing
 In 2000, only 1/3 of total households had kids
under 18
 About 24 percent were traditional nuclear families

7. A “Minority Majority” Future
By 2023, majority of children will be non-White
By 2042, majority of whole population will be non-
White

8. Households are Aging
By 2050: 19 million people over the age of 85,
more than three times the number we have
today

9. Growing Demand for TOD
National Demand for TOD by Income, 2030
$75,000 and
Gre r
ate
Only 1/3 of demand is at the 21 % L s Than
es
$20,000
m edian incom or above
e 29%
$50,000 -
$74,999
1 3%
$20,000 -
$35,000 - $34,999
$49,999 1 9%
1 4%

10. Understanding and Supporting the
Local Economy

11. Local Economic Activity Provides:
 Quality of Life for Community Residents
(jobs/income, services, enrichment)
 Tax Base for the Community (property taxes, sales
tax, etc.)
 Metropolitan Competitiveness and Prosperity
(providing jobs, workers, or both to regional
economic “niches”)

12. Standard Land Use Map
Employment
Areas are usually
the least
“understood”
areas in a comp.
plan
But, there is
often
considerable
pressure to
convert
employment
lands to other
uses.

13. Employment
areas should be
defined by
“function” and
evaluated
independently
Location,
Location,
Location!

14. Understand
Your
Industries
Driving Industries –
Sell goods and services
beyond city
Household Serving
Industries – Provides
goods and services for
residents (and other
people in the city)
Business Serving
Industries – Provides
services to other
businesses in the city

15. Monitor
changing
conditions
when defining
land use
policies

16. Bringing Transportation into
the Story
Source: San Mateo County

17. Location Matters!

18. When gas prices increase…
Transportation Costs as % Median HH Income
(Center for Neighborhood Technology: http://htaindex.cnt.org)
$1.81 /gallon $4.47/gallon

19. Quality Transit has Origins and Destinations
 Map
Current Worker Flow
to Boyle Heights,
Downtown
Current Worker Flow
from BH

20. Plan Strategically for TOD

21. Four Lessons for
Comprehensive Planning

22. 1. Different opportunities for change influence the
plan approach
Built Out Community Developing Community
Understand Your Opportunities for Change

23. 2. Local Economies Are Not Just Local
Workers in and out
Job Center
Bedroom Community
Always Consider the Regional Context

24. 3. Good Land Use Policy can support Economic
Development
Use Real Estate Market Data
and Projections to Test Land
Use Assumptions

25. 4. Plan for Diversity
This applies to every aspect of your
community