The document analyzes employment dynamics at multinational firms (MNFs) and domestic firms during the crisis. It finds that while both contributed to job losses, domestic firms primarily reduced employment through firm exits, cutting over 29,000 jobs. Meanwhile, MNFs reduced employment mainly through downsizing by incumbent firms, shedding over 36,000 jobs. The document examines whether MNFs exhibit greater employment volatility than domestic firms due to easier international reallocation and a "home bias" during difficult times.
ARC's employment estimates are for 2012, and they include jobs-in-place, meaning we locate the jobs at the small-area, which provides more spatial detail and accuracy than other employment products.
Ülevaade euroala ja Eesti majandusest. Eesti Panga avalik loeng 13. märtsil 2014Eesti Pank
Eesti Panga rahapoliitika ja majandusuuringute osakonna juhataja Martti Randveer annab ülevaate euroala ja Eesti majanduse arengust. 13.03.2014, Eesti Panga avalik loeng
Loengu videosalvestus asub aadressil http://youtu.be/_gbrErxu95M
David Seim. Tax Rates, Tax Evasion and Cognitive SkillsEesti Pank
This document summarizes a study examining the relationship between tax rates, tax evasion, and cognitive skills. The study uses a structural model to estimate the tax elasticity of evasion between 1-3.5. It finds that individuals with higher cognitive abilities, as measured by military enlistment data, are more likely to evade taxes. The study contributes new empirical estimates of tax evasion and shows that the ability to respond to taxes through evasion differs across cognitive skill levels.
Harri Turunen. Government spending in a volatile economy at the zero lower boundEesti Pank
1) Government spending multipliers are generally small when the economy is not at the zero lower bound (ZLB), and are increased only slightly by higher uncertainty. 2) When the economy is at the ZLB due to large negative shocks to bond returns or discount rates, multipliers can be substantially above one and increase further with higher spending or productivity volatility. 3) Different types of shocks can drive the economy to the ZLB, but bond return and monetary policy shocks are the primary drivers, while productivity shocks yield relatively small multipliers.
Madis Müller. Estonian financial sector – recent developments and the changin...Eesti Pank
The document summarizes recent developments in Estonia's financial sector and the changing role of Eesti Pank (the central bank of Estonia). It notes that Estonia's banking sector is dominated by Nordic banks and that credit growth is slowing while the real estate market is recovering. It discusses Eesti Pank taking on new responsibilities for macroprudential supervision and the implications of the new Single Supervisory Mechanism for oversight of Nordic bank subsidiaries in Estonia. Close cooperation will be needed between Nordic and Baltic authorities and the European Central Bank as financial supervision responsibilities are merged.
Eesti Panga majanduskommentaar 12. detsembril 2013Eesti Pank
12.12.2013 pressikonverentsil tutvustavad Eesti majanduse viimase aja arengut ja keskpanga majandusprognoosi Eesti Panga president Ardo Hansson ja asepresident Ülo Kaasik.
ARC's employment estimates are for 2012, and they include jobs-in-place, meaning we locate the jobs at the small-area, which provides more spatial detail and accuracy than other employment products.
Ülevaade euroala ja Eesti majandusest. Eesti Panga avalik loeng 13. märtsil 2014Eesti Pank
Eesti Panga rahapoliitika ja majandusuuringute osakonna juhataja Martti Randveer annab ülevaate euroala ja Eesti majanduse arengust. 13.03.2014, Eesti Panga avalik loeng
Loengu videosalvestus asub aadressil http://youtu.be/_gbrErxu95M
David Seim. Tax Rates, Tax Evasion and Cognitive SkillsEesti Pank
This document summarizes a study examining the relationship between tax rates, tax evasion, and cognitive skills. The study uses a structural model to estimate the tax elasticity of evasion between 1-3.5. It finds that individuals with higher cognitive abilities, as measured by military enlistment data, are more likely to evade taxes. The study contributes new empirical estimates of tax evasion and shows that the ability to respond to taxes through evasion differs across cognitive skill levels.
Harri Turunen. Government spending in a volatile economy at the zero lower boundEesti Pank
1) Government spending multipliers are generally small when the economy is not at the zero lower bound (ZLB), and are increased only slightly by higher uncertainty. 2) When the economy is at the ZLB due to large negative shocks to bond returns or discount rates, multipliers can be substantially above one and increase further with higher spending or productivity volatility. 3) Different types of shocks can drive the economy to the ZLB, but bond return and monetary policy shocks are the primary drivers, while productivity shocks yield relatively small multipliers.
Madis Müller. Estonian financial sector – recent developments and the changin...Eesti Pank
The document summarizes recent developments in Estonia's financial sector and the changing role of Eesti Pank (the central bank of Estonia). It notes that Estonia's banking sector is dominated by Nordic banks and that credit growth is slowing while the real estate market is recovering. It discusses Eesti Pank taking on new responsibilities for macroprudential supervision and the implications of the new Single Supervisory Mechanism for oversight of Nordic bank subsidiaries in Estonia. Close cooperation will be needed between Nordic and Baltic authorities and the European Central Bank as financial supervision responsibilities are merged.
Eesti Panga majanduskommentaar 12. detsembril 2013Eesti Pank
12.12.2013 pressikonverentsil tutvustavad Eesti majanduse viimase aja arengut ja keskpanga majandusprognoosi Eesti Panga president Ardo Hansson ja asepresident Ülo Kaasik.
Sarah Brown. Portfolio Allocation, Background Risk and Households’ Flight to ...Eesti Pank
This document describes a fractional ordered probit (DFOP) model to analyze how background risks affect households' allocation of financial assets into risky and safe asset classes. The model accounts for the fact that background risks like labor income volatility should cause households to "deflate" or reduce their holdings of risky assets. It models the expected share of a household's portfolio allocated to high, medium, and low risk asset classes based on observed characteristics and two background risk equations representing the propensity to move away from high and medium risk assets. The model is estimated on US Survey of Consumer Finances data from 1998-2013 to investigate how different types of uncertainty influence household portfolio composition.
Rainer Olt. Ühtne euromaksete piirkond SEPAEesti Pank
Eesti Panga makse- ja arveldussüsteemide osakonna juhtivspetsialist Rainer Olt esines ettekandega Eesti maksekeskkonnast Eesti Kaupmeeste Liidu korraldatud maksekeskkonna muudatusi käsitleval seminaril 23.04.2013
Eesti Panga avalik loeng. Palkade ja tootlikkuse areng Eestis 15.05.2013Eesti Pank
Eesti Panga avatud loeng 15.05.2013
Eesti Panga majandusuuringute allosakonna juhataja Tairi Rõõm ja vanemökonomist Jaanika Meriküll tutvustavad uuringut "Palkade ja tootlikkuse areng Eestis".
Keskpanga ökonomist Natalja Viilmann tutvustab Eesti majanduse konkurentsivõime ülevaadet.
Ülevaates analüüsitakse Eesti ekspordivõimet, suhtelise tootlikkuse kasvu ja vaadeldakse rahvusvahelistel turgudel hakkamasaamist iseloomustavaid näitajaid, mis põhinevad siinsete hindade ja palkade dünaamika võrdlusel Eesti peamiste kaubanduspartneritega. Analüüs Eesti majanduse konkurentsivõime kohta valmib kord aastas.
Konstantīns Beņkovskis, Julia Wörz. Evaluation of Non-Price Competitiveness o...Eesti Pank
The document evaluates the price and non-price competitiveness of exports from Central, Eastern and South-Eastern European countries to the EU market. It outlines limitations of traditional real effective exchange rate indicators and proposes a theoretical framework to assess changes in relative export prices adjusted for quality or taste using elasticities of substitution. Estimates of elasticities are obtained through a system of demand and supply equations estimated with GMM. The results suggest median elasticities of substitution between 4.9-6.2 for large EU countries.
Robert Vermeulen. Net Foreign Assets (Com)position: Does Financial Developmen...Eesti Pank
1) The document analyzes the empirical link between domestic financial development and net foreign asset positions using data from 51 countries from 1970-2007.
2) It finds that greater financial development is associated with lower total net foreign asset positions, higher net equity positions, and lower net debt positions, consistent with the theoretical predictions.
3) The results suggest that in the long run, greater financial development could help diminish global imbalances, though adjustment is slow, with about 15% of the gap closed per year on average.
Apostolos Thomadakis. Determinants of Credit Constrained Firms: Evidence from...Eesti Pank
This document summarizes a study on determinants of credit constrained firms in Central and Eastern Europe. It outlines the motivation, literature review, data sources, and empirical results. The study aims to isolate firm-level credit demand from supply, examine how banking competition and credit information sharing impact access to finance, and analyze heterogeneity across countries and years. Key findings include that loan needed firms and credit constrained firms decreased from 2008-2009 to 2012-2014 in most countries, and the impact of banking competition on access to finance depends on whether the market power or information hypothesis dominates.
Avalik loeng. Eesti Panga majandusprognoosi tutvustus 13. juunil 2013Eesti Pank
Majanduspoliitika ja -prognoosi allosakonna juhataja Rasmus Kattai tutvustas Eesti Panga vastvalminud majandusprognoosi ja andis ülevaate Eesti majanduse viimase aja arengust.
Eesti Pank koostab Eesti majanduse prognoosi kaks korda aastas. Prognoos valmib koostöös EKPga ning on ühtlasi ka sisendiks euroala majandusprognoosile. Ettekanne põhineb 12. juunil avaldataval väljaandel Rahapoliitika ja Majandus. Prognoos hõlmab ettevaadet kuni 2015. aastani.
Eesti Ajaloomuuseumi ekspert Ivar Leimus tegi ettekande Eesti Vabariigi esimese ametliku maksevahendi – Eesti marga – kehtestamisest 95 aastat tagasi. 30.11.2013
Giovanni Calice. Spillovers in Sovereign Bond and CDS Markets: An Analysis of...Eesti Pank
This paper analyzes liquidity spillovers in sovereign bond and credit default swap (CDS) markets during the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis from 2007 to 2011. It develops a time-varying vector autoregression model to establish the dynamic interaction between sovereign bond and CDS credit spreads and liquidity spreads. The authors collect transaction data from Thomson Reuters and Datastream to construct daily indices for sovereign bond yields and CDS spreads of 10 Eurozone countries.
Eesti Pank Economic Statement 10 December 2014Eesti Pank
The document summarizes the Eesti Pank Economic Statement from December 10, 2014. It notes that global and euro area economic growth is slower than expected. Inflation in the euro area has fallen and interest rates remain low. While the Russian rouble has fallen against the euro, trade sanctions against Russia have not significantly harmed the Estonian economy. The forecast predicts that Estonian economic growth will pick up slowly, reaching its long-term sustainable rate by 2016, though the shrinking population means GDP will grow more slowly than GDP per capita. The general government budget is expected to remain in deficit through 2016.
The document summarizes Nokia's corporate strategy presentation by CEO Stephen Elop. It discusses Nokia's history and rise as the dominant mobile phone manufacturer, the shift to smartphones, and Nokia's declining market share as Android and iOS surpassed its Symbian operating system. The presentation notes that while Nokia and Microsoft still have significant assets, it remains uncertain if they can capitalize on their partnership to compete against Apple, Google, and other major players in the new landscape of mobile platforms and ecosystems.
Union Chimique Belge is a multinational biopharmaceutical company that manufactures medications for epilepsy, Parkinson's, and Crohn's diseases. In 2011, the company generated €3.2 billion in revenue, with 49% from Europe and 33% from North America. Net profit was €513 million. For 2012, the company expects revenue to remain stable at €3.2 billion and net profit to decrease slightly to €196 million, continuing growth of key drugs like Cimzia, Vimpat, Neupro, and Keppra. UCB is financially strong with a worldwide presence and focus on innovation.
Sarah Brown. Portfolio Allocation, Background Risk and Households’ Flight to ...Eesti Pank
This document describes a fractional ordered probit (DFOP) model to analyze how background risks affect households' allocation of financial assets into risky and safe asset classes. The model accounts for the fact that background risks like labor income volatility should cause households to "deflate" or reduce their holdings of risky assets. It models the expected share of a household's portfolio allocated to high, medium, and low risk asset classes based on observed characteristics and two background risk equations representing the propensity to move away from high and medium risk assets. The model is estimated on US Survey of Consumer Finances data from 1998-2013 to investigate how different types of uncertainty influence household portfolio composition.
Rainer Olt. Ühtne euromaksete piirkond SEPAEesti Pank
Eesti Panga makse- ja arveldussüsteemide osakonna juhtivspetsialist Rainer Olt esines ettekandega Eesti maksekeskkonnast Eesti Kaupmeeste Liidu korraldatud maksekeskkonna muudatusi käsitleval seminaril 23.04.2013
Eesti Panga avalik loeng. Palkade ja tootlikkuse areng Eestis 15.05.2013Eesti Pank
Eesti Panga avatud loeng 15.05.2013
Eesti Panga majandusuuringute allosakonna juhataja Tairi Rõõm ja vanemökonomist Jaanika Meriküll tutvustavad uuringut "Palkade ja tootlikkuse areng Eestis".
Keskpanga ökonomist Natalja Viilmann tutvustab Eesti majanduse konkurentsivõime ülevaadet.
Ülevaates analüüsitakse Eesti ekspordivõimet, suhtelise tootlikkuse kasvu ja vaadeldakse rahvusvahelistel turgudel hakkamasaamist iseloomustavaid näitajaid, mis põhinevad siinsete hindade ja palkade dünaamika võrdlusel Eesti peamiste kaubanduspartneritega. Analüüs Eesti majanduse konkurentsivõime kohta valmib kord aastas.
Konstantīns Beņkovskis, Julia Wörz. Evaluation of Non-Price Competitiveness o...Eesti Pank
The document evaluates the price and non-price competitiveness of exports from Central, Eastern and South-Eastern European countries to the EU market. It outlines limitations of traditional real effective exchange rate indicators and proposes a theoretical framework to assess changes in relative export prices adjusted for quality or taste using elasticities of substitution. Estimates of elasticities are obtained through a system of demand and supply equations estimated with GMM. The results suggest median elasticities of substitution between 4.9-6.2 for large EU countries.
Robert Vermeulen. Net Foreign Assets (Com)position: Does Financial Developmen...Eesti Pank
1) The document analyzes the empirical link between domestic financial development and net foreign asset positions using data from 51 countries from 1970-2007.
2) It finds that greater financial development is associated with lower total net foreign asset positions, higher net equity positions, and lower net debt positions, consistent with the theoretical predictions.
3) The results suggest that in the long run, greater financial development could help diminish global imbalances, though adjustment is slow, with about 15% of the gap closed per year on average.
Apostolos Thomadakis. Determinants of Credit Constrained Firms: Evidence from...Eesti Pank
This document summarizes a study on determinants of credit constrained firms in Central and Eastern Europe. It outlines the motivation, literature review, data sources, and empirical results. The study aims to isolate firm-level credit demand from supply, examine how banking competition and credit information sharing impact access to finance, and analyze heterogeneity across countries and years. Key findings include that loan needed firms and credit constrained firms decreased from 2008-2009 to 2012-2014 in most countries, and the impact of banking competition on access to finance depends on whether the market power or information hypothesis dominates.
Avalik loeng. Eesti Panga majandusprognoosi tutvustus 13. juunil 2013Eesti Pank
Majanduspoliitika ja -prognoosi allosakonna juhataja Rasmus Kattai tutvustas Eesti Panga vastvalminud majandusprognoosi ja andis ülevaate Eesti majanduse viimase aja arengust.
Eesti Pank koostab Eesti majanduse prognoosi kaks korda aastas. Prognoos valmib koostöös EKPga ning on ühtlasi ka sisendiks euroala majandusprognoosile. Ettekanne põhineb 12. juunil avaldataval väljaandel Rahapoliitika ja Majandus. Prognoos hõlmab ettevaadet kuni 2015. aastani.
Eesti Ajaloomuuseumi ekspert Ivar Leimus tegi ettekande Eesti Vabariigi esimese ametliku maksevahendi – Eesti marga – kehtestamisest 95 aastat tagasi. 30.11.2013
Giovanni Calice. Spillovers in Sovereign Bond and CDS Markets: An Analysis of...Eesti Pank
This paper analyzes liquidity spillovers in sovereign bond and credit default swap (CDS) markets during the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis from 2007 to 2011. It develops a time-varying vector autoregression model to establish the dynamic interaction between sovereign bond and CDS credit spreads and liquidity spreads. The authors collect transaction data from Thomson Reuters and Datastream to construct daily indices for sovereign bond yields and CDS spreads of 10 Eurozone countries.
Eesti Pank Economic Statement 10 December 2014Eesti Pank
The document summarizes the Eesti Pank Economic Statement from December 10, 2014. It notes that global and euro area economic growth is slower than expected. Inflation in the euro area has fallen and interest rates remain low. While the Russian rouble has fallen against the euro, trade sanctions against Russia have not significantly harmed the Estonian economy. The forecast predicts that Estonian economic growth will pick up slowly, reaching its long-term sustainable rate by 2016, though the shrinking population means GDP will grow more slowly than GDP per capita. The general government budget is expected to remain in deficit through 2016.
The document summarizes Nokia's corporate strategy presentation by CEO Stephen Elop. It discusses Nokia's history and rise as the dominant mobile phone manufacturer, the shift to smartphones, and Nokia's declining market share as Android and iOS surpassed its Symbian operating system. The presentation notes that while Nokia and Microsoft still have significant assets, it remains uncertain if they can capitalize on their partnership to compete against Apple, Google, and other major players in the new landscape of mobile platforms and ecosystems.
Union Chimique Belge is a multinational biopharmaceutical company that manufactures medications for epilepsy, Parkinson's, and Crohn's diseases. In 2011, the company generated €3.2 billion in revenue, with 49% from Europe and 33% from North America. Net profit was €513 million. For 2012, the company expects revenue to remain stable at €3.2 billion and net profit to decrease slightly to €196 million, continuing growth of key drugs like Cimzia, Vimpat, Neupro, and Keppra. UCB is financially strong with a worldwide presence and focus on innovation.
Wits univ business school gfc & hrm ir in mn cs oct 2011[1]Roland Viedge
The document discusses how multinational companies and their human resource management practices have been impacted by the global financial crisis. It provides an overview of multinational companies in Ireland, highlighting their importance to the Irish economy. The document then analyzes the effects of the financial crisis on areas like employment, wages, and industrial relations within multinational companies in Ireland.
German Mittelstand Champions (geschützt)Bernd Venohr
The success model of German mid-sized world market leaders provides lessons for large and small companies. Many German mid-sized companies occupy top 3 positions in their industry sectors globally. They dominate niche global markets through superior value, not lower costs. Their management model is supported by long-term family ownership, regional roots, technology leadership, and operational excellence. Close relationships with customers and suppliers also drive their international success.
Maximising the value of your business presentationgregbirmingham
The document discusses recent trends in technology mergers and acquisitions. It notes that while the number of deals increased in 2010, volumes are still below 2005-2007 levels. Valuations are also increasing across the sector as shown by rising price-earnings ratios. Private equity funds and corporate cash reserves are driving deal activity in 2011 as buyers seek to invest funds and plug gaps in offerings. The outlook is positive for technology M&A in 2011, driven by cash availability, recovering credit markets, and a focus on fast growing areas like mobility, social networks, and cloud computing.
1) Structural reforms in Egypt from 2001-2008 led to slow redistribution of employment towards sectors like manufacturing, transportation, communication, wholesale/retail trade, and extraction.
2) These structural changes were associated with increasing productivity in the same economic activities.
3) The private sector was the primary source of both employment growth and productivity increases over this period.
Deutsche EuroShop | Company Presentation | 03/13 (Preliminary Results)Deutsche EuroShop AG
This document provides an overview of Deutsche EuroShop, a German company that invests solely in shopping centers. It discusses Deutsche EuroShop's equity story, key figures, lease system, targets, and recent acquisition of the Herold-Center Norderstedt shopping center. The company owns interests in 20 shopping centers across Germany, Poland, Austria and Hungary, with a focus on locations with over 500,000 inhabitants within a 30 minute drive. It aims for long-term growth in net asset value and stable dividends.
This document provides an overview of Deutsche EuroShop, a German company that invests solely in shopping centers. Some key points:
- Deutsche EuroShop owns 19 shopping centers located primarily in Germany but also in Poland, Austria and Hungary, with a total lettable space of approximately 905,000 square meters.
- The company focuses on long-term growth and stable increases in portfolio value rather than short-term success.
- Key financial figures for 2011 show revenues of €190 million, EBIT of €165.7 million, and FFO per share of €1.61, representing growth over previous years.
- Rents are based on a lease system that includes both minimum rents linked to
This document provides an overview of Menatel, an Egyptian telecommunications company, and analyzes how fluctuations in the local currency exchange rate affect its business. It discusses Menatel's growth in key metrics like locations, sales points, call volumes, and revenues from 1999-2002. While the business expanded significantly in this period, issues like inflation and currency devaluation posed challenges. The document examines Menatel's financial results, operations, workforce, and strategies to overcome obstacles from currency instability and promote efficiency, productivity and profitability despite economic headwinds.
This document provides an overview of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and their use of information technology. It discusses the history and rise of SMEs, noting they were largely ignored until the 1970s but are now recognized as playing an important role in economies. The document also covers definitional problems in classifying SMEs due to heterogeneity in factors like organization size, industry, and ownership structure. Research findings show that while SMEs face disadvantages accessing new technologies compared to large enterprises, they contribute significantly to job growth, innovation, and economic sustainability.
This document provides an overview of Deutsche EuroShop AG, a German real estate investment company that invests solely in shopping centers. Some key points:
- Deutsche EuroShop owns interests in 20 shopping centers located in Germany, Poland, Austria, and Hungary, with a total lettable space of approximately 960,000 square meters.
- The company focuses on long-term growth and stable increases in portfolio value through a "buy and hold" strategy. It aims to extend its portfolio by 10% annually through acquisitions and expansions.
- Deutsche EuroShop presents information on its key financial figures, lease terms, tenant mix, and the locations and details of its shopping center properties.
-
Luc Bertrand is een man met visie. Op ondernemerschap. Op investeren. Op participeren. Op leidinggeven. Op ons maatschappelijk model. Op duurzaamheid. Op de toekomst. Hij heeft er duidelijke ideeën over, een mening, een langetermijnvisie, die hij met ons gedeeld heeft.
http://www.vkw.be
This document provides an overview of Deutsche EuroShop AG, a German real estate investment company that invests solely in shopping centers. It owns interests in 20 shopping centers located in Germany, Poland, Austria, and Hungary. The document summarizes the company's equity story, key figures, lease terms, acquisition of a new shopping center in Norderstedt, and details about its existing portfolio of shopping centers in Germany and Europe. It also provides information on tenants, lease maturity distribution, and sector/retailer mix within its properties.
The current study presents the impact of the development of the broadband infrastructure on the economical development. An economic growth of 0.7% can be expected, if a fast broadband infrastructure is consistently built in Germany and the other EU-countries.
The document discusses the GS100 survey of global IT and business process outsourcing providers. It provides an overview of the 2010 survey results, including geographic coverage, industry sizes, revenue growth from 2008-2009, new customer contracts by size and sector, global delivery locations and headcounts, top employers, and common management practices. A model for service providers emphasizes customer maturity, global delivery maturity, services portfolio breadth, and management excellence.
Aligica & Tarko - The Uses of Austerity, Romania 2007-2011Vlad Tarko
The document analyzes Romania's response to the 2009 economic crisis through austerity measures. It found that while austerity led to short-term government spending cuts, it lacked structural reforms. This caused indiscriminate cuts and recentralization of the public sector without addressing long-term issues. The private sector adapted rapidly by restructuring and wage adjustments, but unemployment increased, especially for youth. Overall, the crisis largely stemmed from the government overspending in prior years.
Some companies' revenues are permanently associated with rising cost of revenue to the point where they are permanently unprofitable -- e.g. Pandora makes less ad revenue per play than the licensing cost of the song.
This document provides an overview of Deutsche EuroShop AG, a German real estate investment company that invests solely in shopping centers. It discusses Deutsche EuroShop's equity story, key figures, lease system, targets, and shopping center portfolio. Specifically, it notes that Deutsche EuroShop owns interests in 20 shopping centers located primarily in Germany, with a total lettable space of approximately 960,000 square meters. It aims for long-term growth and stable increases in portfolio value through a "buy and hold" strategy focused on net asset value and dividends.
Ipsos MediaCT: Business Elite Breakfast SeminarIpsos UK
This document summarizes a breakfast seminar on understanding the business elite. The seminar included presentations on how the business elite have evolved since the 1970s and remain influential leaders of large companies who are early adopters of new technologies. While their media consumption and wealth have increased, they also face challenges relating to volatile markets and attracting top talent. The business elite were discussed from an ethnographic perspective, noting their broad knowledge skills and efficient use of information for business purposes.
This document provides an overview of Deutsche EuroShop AG, a German real estate investment company that invests solely in shopping centers. Some key points:
- Deutsche EuroShop owns interests in 20 shopping centers located in Germany, Poland, Austria, and Hungary, with a total lettable space of approximately 960,000 square meters.
- The company focuses on long-term growth and stable increases in portfolio value through a "buy and hold" strategy. It aims to extend its portfolio by 10% annually through acquisitions and expansions.
- Deutsche EuroShop presents information on its centers' locations, investments, lettable space, tenants, and other details. It also provides financial highlights and targets maintaining
Similar to Catherine Fuss (National Bank of Belgium). Firm dynamics and employment adjustment: the role of multinationals (20)
Eesti Panga president Madis Müller ja finantsstabiilsuse osakonna juhataja Jaak Tõrs tutvustasid kõigile majandushuvilistele äsja valminud Eesti finantssektori ülevaadet.
Karsten Staehr. Macroeconomic News and Sovereign Interest Rate Spreads before...Eesti Pank
1. The document analyzes how the effect of macroeconomic news on Italian sovereign interest rate spreads changed before and during the ECB's quantitative easing program from 2014-2022.
2. It finds that macroeconomic news had a significant effect on spreads before QE, with a coefficient of around -4, whereas the effect during QE was near zero, with the difference being statistically significant.
3. The results were robust to different specifications and definitions of news shocks. This suggests that QE helped insulate sovereign bond spreads from the impact of macroeconomic news by removing tail risks and "killing normal market reactions to news."
Majanduse Rahastamise Ülevaade. Veebruar 2023Eesti Pank
22.02.2023 Eesti Panga ökonomistid Taavi Raudsaar ja Mari Tamm tutvustasid äsja valminud Majanduse Rahastamise Ülevaadet ehk millised on Eesti majapidamiste ja ettevõtete rahastamisvõimalused.
The Sufficiency of Debt Relief as a Panacea to Sovereign Debt Crisis in Sub-S...Eesti Pank
The thesis analyzes the efficacy of debt relief as a solution to sovereign debt crises in Sub-Saharan Africa, using Ghana, Nigeria, and Zambia as case studies. It conducts debt sustainability analyses under various scenarios of partial or full debt reduction, cancellation, and standstills. Structural impulse response analyses show how macroeconomic factors like growth, interest rates, and exchange rates impact debt levels over time. The results suggest that debt relief can reduce debt burdens but economic reforms are also needed for long-term sustainability. Limitations include low frequency data and lower assumed interest rates.
Luck and skill in the performance of global equity funds in Central and Easte...Eesti Pank
The document summarizes a study examining the performance of actively managed global equity funds in Central and Eastern Europe between 2005-2019. The study uses a bootstrap methodology to separate fund manager skill from luck. Key findings include:
- Approximately 5% of funds showed skill in outperforming their benchmarks gross of fees, with one fund in particular outperforming factor returns net and gross of fees.
- Most funds that underperformed did so due to lack of skill rather than bad luck.
- Fees were too high relative to the abnormal performance added by many mutual funds.
- While some fund managers possessed skill, it was generally not enough to cover their fees, suggesting fees may be too high or competition
The document summarizes a study examining how Lithuanian food manufacturing firms adjusted to trade sanctions imposed by Russia in 2014 that banned many agricultural imports from the EU.
The main adjustments included:
- Reducing part-time employment as the most flexible margin of adjustment. Larger reductions occurred for firms more exposed to the Russian market.
- Increasing exports to other countries to compensate for lost Russian exports. More exposed firms increased other exports more.
- Decreasing investment and full-time employment for more exposed firms, though full-time employment adjustments took longer.
A conceptual framework is presented predicting this sequence of adjustments, with part-time labor adjusting first due to lower costs, followed by exports, investment,
The document provides an economic forecast for Estonia from 2022-2025. It finds that high inflation and energy prices are hurting the global and European economies. Inflation in Estonia is projected to remain high in 2023 before slowly falling in 2024-2025. Interest rates are also expected to continue rising to curb inflation. Fiscal policy measures risk exacerbating inflation. Overall the Estonian economy is forecast to recover by late 2023 but high costs and uncertainty will continue weighing on growth.
Fabio Canovaand Evi Pappa. Costly disasters, energy consumption, and the role...Eesti Pank
Neljapäeval, 20. oktoobril 2022 toimus Eesti Panga avatud seminar, kus rahvusvaheliselt tunnustatud majandusteadlane Fabio Canova tutvustas koos Evi Pappaga valminud uurimustööd „Kulukad looduskatastroofid, energiatarbimine ning eelarvepoliitika“ (Costly disasters, energy consumption, and the role of fiscal policy).
Romain Duval. IMF Regional Economic Outlook for EuropeEesti Pank
31. oktoobril 2022 toimus Eesti Panga avatud seminar, kus Rahvusvahelise Valuutafondi esindaja Romain A. Duval tutvustas IMFi Euroopa osakonnas vastvalminud regionaalset majandusväljavaadet.
Pressikonverents Eesti Pangas, kus keskpanga president Madis Müller ja finantsstabiilsuse osakonna juhataja Jaak Tõrs tutvustavad ülevaadet, mis analüüsib suuremaid riske Eesti finantssektoris.
Pressikonverentsil saab teada:
kuidas majanduse jahenemine, kiire hinnakasv ja intresside tõus mõjutavad inimeste ja ettevõtete võimet laene tagasi maksta
milline mõju saab majanduse jahenemisel olema uute laenude andmisel ettevõtetele ja inimestele
kuidas mõjutavad võlakirjaturgudel toimuvad muutused Eesti pangandussektori rahastamist
milliseid samme tuleb keskpanga hinnangul astuda finantssektori tugevuse kindlustamiseks.
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办理美国SDSU毕业证书制作南达科他州立大学假文凭定制Q微168899991做SDSU留信网教留服认证海牙认证改SDSU成绩单GPA做SDSU假学位证假文凭高仿毕业证GRE代考如何申请南达科他州立大学South Dakota State University degree offer diploma Transcript
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Catherine Fuss (National Bank of Belgium). Firm dynamics and employment adjustment: the role of multinationals
1. Firm dynamics and employment
adjustment: the role of multinationals
Eesti Pank seminar, Tallinn, January 23 2013
P. Blanchard (U.Paris Est Créteil, ERUDITE), E. Dhyne (BNB, U. Mons)
C. Fuss (BNB, ULB), C. Mathieu (U. Paris Est Créteil, ERUDITE)
The views expressed in this paper are those of the author and do not
necessarily reflect the views of the National Bank of Belgium.
2. Introduction: the role of multinational firms (MNFs)
Importance of MNFs for Belgium
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Inwards FDI flows/GDP
Belgium 84 88 91 113 129 100 120 177 169 201 192
EU 27 29 32 34 36 34 41 44 36 45 45
US 28 25 19 22 23 22 25 25 17 21 23
Source: UNCTAD (2009)
MNFs are large employment providers ...
...
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Domestic firms
employment(x1000) 1087 1116 1137 995 983 967 987 1030 1051 1088 1118 1123
average per firm 9 9 9 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8
MNFs
employment(x1000) 508 522 539 714 707 713 710 689 706 709 688 657
average per firm 261 270 266 267 252 238 239 249 264 270 273 267
Notes: sample of firms with at least once: average number of employees>0, tangible fixed assets>100,
with main activity in the manufacturing, construction or market services sectors.
INTRODUCTION EMPLOYMENT DYNAMICS PROBABILITY OF EXIT LABOUR ADJUSTMENT COSTS CONCLUSION
3. Introduction: the role of multinational firms (MNFs)
Importance of MNFs for Belgium
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Inwards FDI flows/GDP
Belgium 84 88 91 113 129 100 120 177 169 201 192
EU 27 29 32 34 36 34 41 44 36 45 45
US 28 25 19 22 23 22 25 25 17 21 23
Source: UNCTAD (2009)
MNFs are large employment providers ...
...
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Domestic firms
employment(x1000) 1087 1116 1137 995 983 967 987 1030 1051 1088 1118 1123
average per firm 9 9 9 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8
MNFs
employment(x1000) 508 522 539 714 707 713 710 689 706 709 688 657
average per firm 261 270 266 267 252 238 239 249 264 270 273 267
Notes: sample of firms with at least once: average number of employees>0, tangible fixed assets>100,
with main activity in the manufacturing, construction or market services sectors.
INTRODUCTION EMPLOYMENT DYNAMICS PROBABILITY OF EXIT LABOUR ADJUSTMENT COSTS CONCLUSION
4. Introduction: the role of multinational firms (MNFs)
Importance of MNFs for Belgium
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Inwards FDI flows/GDP
Belgium 84 88 91 113 129 100 120 177 169 201 192
EU 27 29 32 34 36 34 41 44 36 45 45
US 28 25 19 22 23 22 25 25 17 21 23
Source: UNCTAD (2009)
MNFs are large employment providers ...
...
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Domestic firms
employment (x1000) 1087 1116 1137 995 983 967 987 1030 1051 1088 1118 1123
average per firm 9 9 9 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8
MNFs
employment (x1000) 508 522 539 714 707 713 710 689 706 709 688 657
average per firm 261 270 266 267 252 238 239 249 264 270 273 267
Notes: sample of firms with at least once: average number of employees>0, tangible fixed assets>100,
with main activity in the manufacturing, construction or market services sectors.
INTRODUCTION EMPLOYMENT DYNAMICS PROBABILITY OF EXIT LABOUR ADJUSTMENT COSTS CONCLUSION
5. Introduction: the role of multinational firms (MNFs)
MNFs are large employment providers ...
… but MNFs may be characterised by higher employment volatility
international reallocation is easier
home bias in adverse time
Two reasons of employment losses
firm exit
labour adjustment by incumbents
→ outline of the talk
Employment dynamics during the crisis : firm exit vs incumbents adjustment
The footlose nature of multinationals
Labour adjustment costs
INTRODUCTION EMPLOYMENT DYNAMICS PROBABILITY OF EXIT LABOUR ADJUSTMENT COSTS CONCLUSION
6. Employment dynamics during the crisis
Job creation - job destruction (Davis, Haltiwanger and Schuh, 1996)
Dataset and variables definition
sources: Survey on FDI + (annualised) annual accounts
sample: manufacturing, construction and market services over 1997-2010
exit in t if in t+1 no employment, no total assets, tangible fixed assets<100.
MNF if owned by at least 50% by a foreign company, or having outwards FDI of at
least 10%
INTRODUCTION EMPLOYMENT DYNAMICS PROBABILITY OF EXIT LABOUR ADJUSTMENT COSTS CONCLUSION
7. Employment dynamics during the crisis
(in thousands) 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Domestic firms
∆L Incumbents 48 41 37 31 6 4 16 23 31 43 38 -8
(# firms) 106.83 114.26 119.00 122.27 125.72 129.29 132.07 135.32 137.70 139.42 140.82 141.36
∆L exiters -22 -31 -26 -31 -27 -21 -19 -19 -21 -23 -27 -29
(# firms)
2.28 3.02 3.65 3.68 3.64 3.58 3.92 3.56 4.14 4.49 4.81 5.51
MNFs
∆L Incumbents 4 -3 12 17 -10 -12 -2 -2 10 4 -8 -36
(# firms) 1.90 1.90 1.99 2.63 2.76 2.95 2.93 2.72 2.62 2.59 2.50 2.41
∆L exiters -6 -4 -14 -7 -6 -8 -4 -5 -4 -5 -3 -12
(# firms)
0.05 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.04 0.08
Notes: Exit year = last year the firm is observed and no employment, no positive total assets, no tangible fixed assets>100.
Incumbents are firms observed in t and t-1
INTRODUCTION EMPLOYMENT DYNAMICS PROBABILITY OF EXIT LABOUR ADJUSTMENT COSTS CONCLUSION
8. Employment dynamics during the crisis
(in thousands) 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Domestic firms
∆L Incumbents 48 41 37 31 6 4 16 23 31 43 38 -8
(# firms) 106.83 114.26 119.00 122.27 125.72 129.29 132.07 135.32 137.70 139.42 140.82 141.36
∆L exiters -22 -31 -26 -31 -27 -21 -19 -19 -21 -23 -27 -29
(# firms)
2.28 3.02 3.65 3.68 3.64 3.58 3.92 3.56 4.14 4.49 4.81 5.51
MNFs
∆L Incumbents 4 -3 12 17 -10 -12 -2 -2 10 4 -8 -36
(# firms) 1.90 1.90 1.99 2.63 2.76 2.95 2.93 2.72 2.62 2.59 2.50 2.41
∆L exiters -6 -4 -14 -7 -6 -8 -4 -5 -4 -5 -3 -12
(# firms)
0.05 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.04 0.08
Notes: Exit year = last year the firm is observed and no employment, no positive total assets, no tangible fixed assets>100.
Incumbents are firms observed in t and t-1
more domestic firms have exited in 2008
INTRODUCTION EMPLOYMENT DYNAMICS PROBABILITY OF EXIT LABOUR ADJUSTMENT COSTS CONCLUSION
9. Employment dynamics during the crisis
(in thousands) 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Domestic firms
∆L Incumbents 48 41 37 31 6 4 16 23 31 43 38 -8
(# firms) 106.83 114.26 119.00 122.27 125.72 129.29 132.07 135.32 137.70 139.42 140.82 141.36
∆L exiters -22 -31 -26 -31 -27 -21 -19 -19 -21 -23 -27 -29
(# firms)
2.28 3.02 3.65 3.68 3.64 3.58 3.92 3.56 4.14 4.49 4.81 5.51
MNFs
∆L Incumbents 4 -3 12 17 -10 -12 -2 -2 10 4 -8 -36
(# firms) 1.90 1.90 1.99 2.63 2.76 2.95 2.93 2.72 2.62 2.59 2.50 2.41
∆L exiters -6 -4 -14 -7 -6 -8 -4 -5 -4 -5 -3 -12
(# firms)
0.05 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.04 0.08
Notes: Exit year = last year the firm is observed and no employment, no positive total assets, no tangible fixed assets>100.
Incumbents are firms observed in t and t-1
more domestic firms have exited in 2008
incumbent MNFs start downsizing in 2008
INTRODUCTION EMPLOYMENT DYNAMICS PROBABILITY OF EXIT LABOUR ADJUSTMENT COSTS CONCLUSION
10. Employment dynamics during the crisis
(in thousands) 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Domestic firms
∆L Incumbents 48 41 37 31 6 4 16 23 31 43 38 -8
(# firms) 106.83 114.26 119.00 122.27 125.72 129.29 132.07 135.32 137.70 139.42 140.82 141.36
∆L exiters -22 -31 -26 -31 -27 -21 -19 -19 -21 -23 -27 -29
(# firms)
2.28 3.02 3.65 3.68 3.64 3.58 3.92 3.56 4.14 4.49 4.81 5.51
MNFs
∆L Incumbents 4 -3 12 17 -10 -12 -2 -2 10 4 -8 -36
(# firms) 1.90 1.90 1.99 2.63 2.76 2.95 2.93 2.72 2.62 2.59 2.50 2.41
∆L exiters -6 -4 -14 -7 -6 -8 -4 -5 -4 -5 -3 -12
(# firms)
0.05 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.04 0.08
Notes: Exit year = last year the firm is observed and no employment, no positive total assets, no tangible fixed assets>100.
Incumbents are firms observed in t and t-1
more domestic firms have exited in 2008
incumbent MNFs start downsizing in 2008
domestic incumbents start downsizing in 2009, and exits remain substantial
INTRODUCTION EMPLOYMENT DYNAMICS PROBABILITY OF EXIT LABOUR ADJUSTMENT COSTS CONCLUSION
11. Employment dynamics during the crisis
(in thousands) 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Domestic firms
∆L Incumbents 48 41 37 31 6 4 16 23 31 43 38 -8
(# firms) 106.83 114.26 119.00 122.27 125.72 129.29 132.07 135.32 137.70 139.42 140.82 141.36
∆L exiters -22 -31 -26 -31 -27 -21 -19 -19 -21 -23 -27 -29
(# firms)
2.28 3.02 3.65 3.68 3.64 3.58 3.92 3.56 4.14 4.49 4.81 5.51
MNFs
∆L Incumbents 4 -3 12 17 -10 -12 -2 -2 10 4 -8 -36
(# firms) 1.90 1.90 1.99 2.63 2.76 2.95 2.93 2.72 2.62 2.59 2.50 2.41
∆L exiters -6 -4 -14 -7 -6 -8 -4 -5 -4 -5 -3 -12
(# firms)
0.05 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.04 0.08
Notes: Exit year = last year the firm is observed and no employment, no positive total assets, no tangible fixed assets>100.
Incumbents are firms observed in t and t-1
more domestic firms have exited in 2008
incumbent MNFs start downsizing in 2008
domestic incumbents start downsizing in 2009, and exits remain substantial
MNFs exits increased in 2009 and incumbent MNFs downsizing increased in 2009
INTRODUCTION EMPLOYMENT DYNAMICS PROBABILITY OF EXIT LABOUR ADJUSTMENT COSTS CONCLUSION
12. The probability of firm exit
The footlose nature of multinationals
Conclusions from previous studies
Van Beveren (2007), for Belgium, Alvarez & Görg (2009); Bernard & Jensen (2009);
Bernard & Sjoholm (2003); Görg & Strobl (2003)
MNFs have a smaller unconditional probability of exit than domestic firms
Controlling for firm and sector-level characteristics, MNFs have a similar or even
higher exit probability than domestic firms
→ random effects Probit model for the probability of exit
including sunk costs in addition to traditional variables
taking two sources of endogeneity into account
INTRODUCTION EMPLOYMENT DYNAMICS PROBABILITY OF EXIT LABOUR ADJUSTMENT COSTS CONCLUSION
13. The probability of firm exit
Firm-level variables
size (measured by employment) and age
TFP estimated using Ackerberg et al. procedure extended to account for firm exit
sunk costs = fraction of investment (in tangible and intangible capital) that is not
leased and cannot be resold on second-hand market
I I leased K K leased
sunkit = (P itIit - P itI it) + (1-δit)(1-γit).(P it-1Kit-1 -Pit-1K it-1)
δ : depreciation rate measured by the yearly sector-level mean
γ : resale rate, approximated by the average sector-level ratio of sales and disposals
over the capital stock.
sunk costs represent barriers to entry and are lost in case of exit → barriers to exit in
the case re-entry is likely.
Sector-level variables
sector growth of value added
competition: Herfindahl index of firm' turnover
→ MNFs are larger, older, more productive and bear larger sunk costs
they operate in sectors with higher growth and lower competition
INTRODUCTION EMPLOYMENT DYNAMICS PROBABILITY OF EXIT LABOUR ADJUSTMENT COSTS CONCLUSION
14. The probability of firm exit
Random effects Probit model
Endogeneity into account endogeneity wrt individual effects (Mundlak)
Endogeneity wrt decision to exit (Rivers-Vuong IV two-step procedure)
e.g. "the shadow of death" (Griliches and Regev, 1995)
→ TFP, sunk costs and size potentially endogenous
step 1: regress endogenous variables on one lag of the enodgenous varable and
MNF, age, competition, sector growth, sector dummies
step 2: include teh fitted value and residual of step 1 in the Probit
test of endogeneity: t-stat of step 1 residual
instruments: one lag of endogenous variable, MNF dummy, competition, sector
growth, scetor dummies
INTRODUCTION EMPLOYMENT DYNAMICS PROBABILITY OF EXIT LABOUR ADJUSTMENT COSTS CONCLUSION
15. The probability of firm exit
Probit models for the probability of exit - marginal effects
(1) (2)
MNFit -0.028*** 0.058***
log(TFPit) -0.037***
Ageit 0.050***
log(Sunkit) -0.015***
log(Sizeit) -0.046***
Competitionst -0.019*
Sector growthst 0.004
log L -152155 -116413
Notes: Estimation over 1998-2008.
All equations include year and nace 1-digit sector dummies;
*** significant at the 1% level, ** at the 5% level, * at the 10% level.
MNFs have a higher (unconditional) probability of exit than domestic firms
INTRODUCTION EMPLOYMENT DYNAMICS PROBABILITY OF EXIT LABOUR ADJUSTMENT COSTS CONCLUSION
16. The probability of firm exit
Probit models for the probability of exit - marginal effects
(1) (2)
MNFit -0.028*** 0.058***
log(TFPit) -0.037***
Ageit 0.050***
log(Sunkit) -0.015***
log(Sizeit) -0.046***
Competitionst -0.019*
Sector growthst 0.004
log L -152155 -116413
Notes: Estimation over 1998-2008.
All equations include year and nace 1-digit sector dummies;
*** significant at the 1% level, ** at the 5% level, * at the 10% level.
• conditional on firm an sector char., MNFs are more likely to exit (5.8 pp)
• sunk costs act as barriers to exit
INTRODUCTION EMPLOYMENT DYNAMICS PROBABILITY OF EXIT LABOUR ADJUSTMENT COSTS CONCLUSION
17. Labour adjustment costs of incumbents
Labour adjustment of incumbents
Barba Navarretti, Checci, Turini (2003) estimate labour demand equations
and find that MNFs adjust employment faster than domestic firms
→ suggests lower adjustment costs
Why would adjustment costs be different?
all firms operating in Belgium face the same labour market legislation and institutions?
economies of scale in human resources management, no labour indivisibility issues
use of flexible contracts and procedures
higher bargaining power wrt governments and unions (Haskel et al. 2007)
international production scope allows for employment reallocation
→ reallocation threat that reinforces bargaining power
INTRODUCTION EMPLOYMENT DYNAMICS PROBABILITY OF EXIT LABOUR ADJUSTMENT COSTS CONCLUSION
18. Labour adjustment costs of incumbents
Dataset
1998-2007
Survey on FDI + (annualised) annual accounts
+ Social Security Data (remuneration and employment by type of worker)
firms with at least 10 employees and that report detailed annual accounts
maufacturing, construction, trade, market services
Estimation of labour adjustment costs
dynamic labour demand equation based on structural Euler equation for net employment
flows (Pfann and Palm, 1993, Alonso-Borrego, 1996, Mathieu and Nicolas, 2006)
cubic labour adjustment costs function (Alonso-Borrego, 1998)
differences between blue-collar and white-collar workers (Bresson et al., 1992, Abowd and
Kramarz, 2003, Kramarz and Michaud, 2010)
differences between employment downsizing and employment upsizing (Goux et al. 2001;
Lundgren and Sjöstom, 2001, Mathieu and Nicolas, 2006)
differences between MNFs and domestic firms
INTRODUCTION EMPLOYMENT DYNAMICS PROBABILITY OF EXIT LABOUR ADJUSTMENT COSTS CONCLUSION
19. Labour adjustment costs of incumbents: derivation
Adjustment costs function (Alonso-Borrego, 1998)
differences between blue-collar workers and white-collar workers
convexity: aB and aW
asymmetry: when dB, dW<0 downsizing cost are larger than upsizing costs
cross adjustment term: when g<0,
adjusting both LB and LW in the same direction reduces costs
but substitution between LB and LW increases costs
Euler equation for worker-type j
assuming Cobb-Douglas production function and Cournot competition:
β is the discount factor
αj is the Cobb Douglas coefficient of type j labour
µ is the markup
INTRODUCTION EMPLOYMENT DYNAMICS PROBABILITY OF EXIT LABOUR ADJUSTMENT COSTS CONCLUSION
20. Labour adjustment costs of incumbents: estimation
Euler equation for worker-type j
Differences between domestic firms and MNFs
α j Qit
Pst
µ Litj
− Witj = (a + a
j j
MNF
j
[
MNFit )(∆Lit − βEt ∆Lij,t +1 ) + ]
(d + d
j j
MNF (
MNFit ) ∆Lit − βEt ∆Lij,t +1 +
j 2
[ 2
])
(g + g [
MNF MNFit )(∆Lit − β Et ∆Li ,t +1 )
k k
]
Estimation by System GMM
i.e. firms form rational expectations
the discount factor is set to β = 0.97 (robustness β = 0.95, 0.99)
αj/µ obtained from estimates of production function
TFP estimated by Ackerberg et al. (2006) procedure
INTRODUCTION EMPLOYMENT DYNAMICS PROBABILITY OF EXIT LABOUR ADJUSTMENT COSTS CONCLUSION
21. Labour adjustment costs of incumbents:
Estimates of production function coefficients
Allowing for market power
→ estimates of αK/µ, αB/µ, αW/µ (Griliches - Mairesse, 1995)
Ackerberg, Caves and Frazer (2006)
assuming that capital, blue-collar workers and white-collar workers are fixed inputs
αK/µ αB/µ αW /µ
Food and textile 0.178 0.424 0.388
(0.011) (0.015) (0.016)
Wood, paper, chemicals, metal and non metal products, machinery 0.161 0.358 0.437
(0.006) (0.009) (0.009)
Equipment and recycling 0.138 0.354 0.433
(0.011) (0.013) (0.018)
Energy and construction 0.106 0.502 0.338
(0.007) (0.007) (0.006)
Trade and hotels and restaurants 0.126 0.176 0.561
(0.005) (0.005) (0.008)
Communication and financial intermediation 0.163 0.268 0.361
(0.005) (0.006) (0.007)
Real estate and business activities 0.179 0.071 0.612
(0.013) (0.018) (0.034)
Note: Estimates based on the 1997-2005 period; 58594 observations and 8688 firms;
Bootstrap-standard errors in brackets.
22. Labour adjustment costs of incumbents: estimates
baseline
aB 291.84***
aBMNF -93.67
dB -7.99**
dBMNF 7.98**
aW 1191.58***
aWMNF -692.26***
dW -20.98**
dWMNF 14.40
g -283.13***
gMNF 185.13
Sargan 30.41
Notes: 37553 observations and 5544 firms over the period 1998-2006.
Joint estimation for blue-collar workers and white-collar workers by SGMM estimation.
All equations include year and sector dummies.
*** significant at the 1% level, ** significant at the 5% level, * significant at the 10% level.
INTRODUCTION EMPLOYMENT DYNAMICS PROBABILITY OF EXIT LABOUR ADJUSTMENT COSTS CONCLUSION
23. Labour adjustment costs of incumbents: estimates
baseline
aB 291.84***
aBMNF -93.67
dB -7.99**
dBMNF 7.98**
aW 1191.58***
aWMNF -692.26***
dW -20.98**
dWMNF 14.40
g -283.13***
gMNF 185.13
Sargan 30.41
Notes: 37553 observations and 5544 firms over the period 1998-2006.
Joint estimation for blue-collar workers and white-collar workers by SGMM estimation.
All equations include year and sector dummies.
*** significant at the 1% level, ** significant at the 5% level, * significant at the 10% level.
INTRODUCTION EMPLOYMENT DYNAMICS PROBABILITY OF EXIT LABOUR ADJUSTMENT COSTS CONCLUSION
24. Labour adjustment costs of incumbents: estimates
baseline Total adjustment costs for a net
employment increase of 1
aB 291.84*** 700
aBMNF -93.67
600
dB -7.99**
500
dBMNF 7.98**
400
aW 1191.58***
300
aWMNF -692.26***
dW -20.98** 200
dWMNF 14.40 100
g -283.13*** 0
∆LB = +1 ∆LW = 0 ∆LB = 0 ∆LW = +1
gMNF 185.13
domestic firms multinational firms
Sargan 30.41
Notes: 37553 observations and 5544 firms over the period 1998-2006.
Joint estimation for blue-collar workers and white-collar workers by SGMM estimation.
All equations include year and sector dummies.
*** significant at the 1% level, ** significant at the 5% level, * significant at the 10% level.
INTRODUCTION EMPLOYMENT DYNAMICS PROBABILITY OF EXIT LABOUR ADJUSTMENT COSTS CONCLUSION
25. Labour adjustment costs of incumbents: explanations
Home bias
MNFs protect home employment, and downsize abroad → Belgian MNF dummy:
More intensive/efficient use of labor flexibility tools
fixed-term contract turnover
early retirement dummy
α j Qit
Pst
µ Litj
− Witj = (a + a
j j
MNF
j j
[ ]
MNFit + a proxy proxyit )(∆Lit − βEt ∆Lij,t +1 ) +
(d + d
j j
MNF
j
(j
[
MNFit + d proxy proxyit ) ∆Lit − βEt ∆Lij,t +1 +
2 2
])
(g + g MNF [
MNFit + g proxy proxyit )(∆Lk − βEt ∆Lk,t +1 )
it i ]
Higher bargaining power wrt unions
sample split according to compulsory union representation at the firm level (employees>=50)
Firm size
alternative specification (see later)
INTRODUCTION EMPLOYMENT DYNAMICS PROBABILITY OF EXIT LABOUR ADJUSTMENT COSTS CONCLUSION
26. Labour adjustment costs of incumbents: explanations
baseline Bel. MNF turn ftc early ret. no unions unions
aBMNF -93.67 -96.21 -12.17 48.54 248.15 -64.50
aBproxy -24.72 -166.36* -456.12***
dBMNF 7.98** 7.85** 4.91 4.53* 8.31* 8.22**
dBproxy 0.36 2.37 17.13***
aWMNF -692.26*** -704.23** -691.96*** -564.39** -952.03 -498.99*
aWproxy 285.21 -518.61** 179.24
dWMNF 14.40 12.07 14.95* 7.76 -54.76** -11.47
dWproxy -8.30 5.79 5.23
gMNF 185.13 159.24 223.70** 257.46*** -454.82 182.96
gproxy 166.12 -276.51 -55.03
Sargan 30.41 34.77 38.12 42.26 22.07 32.07
Notes: 37553 observations and 5544 firms over the period 1998-2006.
aB, aW dB, dW, g not reported.
Joint estimation for blue-collar workers and white-collar workers by SGMM estimation.
All equations include year and sector dummies.
*** significant at the 1% level, ** significant at the 5% level, * significant at the 10% level.
INTRODUCTION EMPLOYMENT DYNAMICS PROBABILITY OF EXIT LABOUR ADJUSTMENT COSTS CONCLUSION
27. Labour adjustment costs of incumbents: explanations
Bel. MNF turn ftc early ret. no unions unions
aBMNF -93.67 -96.21 -12.17 48.54 248.15 -64.50
aBproxy -24.72 -166.36* -456.12***
dBMNF 7.98** 7.85** 4.91 4.53* 8.31* 8.22**
dBproxy 0.36 2.37 17.13***
aWMNF -692.26*** -704.23** -691.96*** -564.39** -952.03 -498.99*
aWproxy 285.21 -518.61** 179.24
dWMNF 14.40 12.07 14.95* 7.76 -54.76** -11.47
dWproxy -8.30 5.79 5.23
gMNF 185.13 159.24 223.70** 257.46*** -454.82 182.96
gproxy 166.12 -276.51 -55.03
Sargan 30.41 34.77 38.12 42.26 22.07 32.07
Notes: 37553 observations and 5544 firms over the period 1998-2006.
aB, aW dB, dW, g not reported.
Joint estimation for blue-collar workers and white-collar workers by SGMM estimation.
All equations include year and sector dummies.
*** significant at the 1% level, ** significant at the 5% level, * significant at the 10% level.
INTRODUCTION EMPLOYMENT DYNAMICS PROBABILITY OF EXIT LABOUR ADJUSTMENT COSTS CONCLUSION
28. Labour adjustment costs of incumbents: explanations
Bel. MNF turn ftc early ret. no unions unions
aBMNF -93.67 -96.21 -12.17 48.54 248.15 -64.50
aBproxy -24.72 -166.36* -456.12***
dBMNF 7.98** 7.85** 4.91 4.53* 8.31* 8.22**
dBproxy 0.36 2.37 17.13***
aWMNF -692.26*** -704.23** -691.96*** -564.39** -952.03 -498.99*
aWproxy 285.21 -518.61** 179.24
dWMNF 14.40 12.07 14.95* 7.76 -54.76** -11.47
dWproxy -8.30 5.79 5.23
gMNF 185.13 159.24 223.70** 257.46*** -454.82 182.96
gproxy 166.12 -276.51 -55.03
Sargan 30.41 34.77 38.12 42.26 22.07 32.07
Notes: 37553 observations and 5544 firms over the period 1998-2006.
aB, aW dB, dW, g not reported.
Joint estimation for blue-collar workers and white-collar workers by SGMM estimation.
All equations include year and sector dummies.
*** significant at the 1% level, ** significant at the 5% level, * significant at the 10% level.
INTRODUCTION EMPLOYMENT DYNAMICS PROBABILITY OF EXIT LABOUR ADJUSTMENT COSTS CONCLUSION
29. Labour adjustment costs of incumbents: explanations
Bel. MNF turn ftc early ret. no unions unions
aBMNF -93.67 -96.21 -12.17 48.54 248.15 -64.50
aBproxy -24.72 -166.36* -456.12***
dBMNF 7.98** 7.85** 4.91 4.53* 8.31* 8.22**
dBproxy 0.36 2.37 17.13***
aWMNF -692.26*** -704.23** -691.96*** -564.39** -952.03 -498.99*
aWproxy 285.21 -518.61** 179.24
dWMNF 14.40 12.07 14.95* 7.76 -54.76** -11.47
dWproxy -8.30 5.79 5.23
gMNF 185.13 159.24 223.70** 257.46*** -454.82 182.96
gproxy 166.12 -276.51 -55.03
Sargan 30.41 34.77 38.12 42.26 22.07 32.07
Notes: 37553 observations and 5544 firms over the period 1998-2006.
aB, aW dB, dW, g not reported.
Joint estimation for blue-collar workers and white-collar workers by SGMM estimation.
All equations include year and sector dummies.
*** significant at the 1% level, ** significant at the 5% level, * significant at the 10% level.
INTRODUCTION EMPLOYMENT DYNAMICS PROBABILITY OF EXIT LABOUR ADJUSTMENT COSTS CONCLUSION
30. Labour adjustment costs of incumbents: explanations
Bel. MNF turn ftc early ret. no unions unions
aBMNF -93.67 -96.21 -12.17 48.54 248.15 -64.50
aBproxy -24.72 -166.36* -456.12***
dBMNF 7.98** 7.85** 4.91 4.53* 8.31* 8.22**
dBproxy 0.36 2.37 17.13***
aWMNF -692.26*** -704.23** -691.96*** -564.39** -952.03 -498.99*
aWproxy 285.21 -518.61** 179.24
dWMNF 14.40 12.07 14.95* 7.76 -54.76** -11.47
dWproxy -8.30 5.79 5.23
gMNF 185.13 159.24 223.70** 257.46*** -454.82 182.96
gproxy 166.12 -276.51 -55.03
Sargan 30.41 34.77 38.12 42.26 22.07 32.07
Notes: 37553 observations and 5544 firms over the period 1998-2006.
aB, aW dB, dW, g not reported.
Joint estimation for blue-collar workers and white-collar workers by SGMM estimation.
All equations include year and sector dummies.
*** significant at the 1% level, ** significant at the 5% level, * significant at the 10% level.
INTRODUCTION EMPLOYMENT DYNAMICS PROBABILITY OF EXIT LABOUR ADJUSTMENT COSTS CONCLUSION
31. Labour adjustment costs of incumbents: explanations
Bel. MNF turn ftc early ret. no unions unions
aBMNF -93.67 -96.21 -12.17 48.54 248.15 -64.50
aBproxy -24.72 -166.36* -456.12***
dBMNF 7.98** 7.85** 4.91 4.53* 8.31* 8.22**
dBproxy 0.36 2.37 17.13***
aWMNF -692.26*** -704.23** -691.96*** -564.39** -952.03 -498.99*
aWproxy 285.21 -518.61** 179.24
dWMNF 14.40 12.07 14.95* 7.76 -54.76** -11.47
dWproxy -8.30 5.79 5.23
gMNF 185.13 159.24 223.70** 257.46*** -454.82 182.96
gproxy 166.12 -276.51 -55.03
Sargan 30.41 34.77 38.12 42.26 22.07 32.07
Notes: 37553 observations and 5544 firms over the period 1998-2006.
aB, aW dB, dW, g not reported.
Joint estimation for blue-collar workers and white-collar workers by SGMM estimation.
All equations include year and sector dummies.
*** significant at the 1% level, ** significant at the 5% level, * significant at the 10% level.
INTRODUCTION EMPLOYMENT DYNAMICS PROBABILITY OF EXIT LABOUR ADJUSTMENT COSTS CONCLUSION
32. Labour adjustment costs of incumbents: estimates
Total adjustment costs for alternative specifications, ∆LW = +1
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
base turn. ftc = 0.44 early ret. unions
domestic firms multinational firms
INTRODUCTION EMPLOYMENT DYNAMICS PROBABILITY OF EXIT LABOUR ADJUSTMENT COSTS CONCLUSION
33. Labour adjustment costs of incumbents : the role of size
Meghir, Ryan, Van Reenen (1996) specification for quadratic adjustment costs
(
AC L it ;L it −1 ) =
c ∆L it 2
(
2 L it −1
) L it −1
Cubic adjustment cost function without size
AC(∆L )
B W aB B2 dB B3 aW W2 dW 3
it ; ∆L it = ∆L it + ∆L it + ∆L it + ∆LW + g∆LB ∆LW
it it it
2 3 2 3
Cubic adjustment costs function à la Meghir et al. → L it-1-1, Lit-1-2
AC (
∆LB ; ∆LW ;L it −1
it it ) =
aB
2
B 2 −1
∆L it L it −1 +
dB
3
B 3 −2
∆L it L it −1 +
aW
2
W 2 −1
∆L it L it −1 +
dW
3
it
3
∆LW L− 2−1 + g∆LB ∆LWL−1−1
it it it it
Generalised adjustment cost function → θ1, θB2 θB3, θW2, θW3
AC(∆L )
B W aB B 2 θB 2 dB B 3 θB 3 aW W 2 θW 2 dW 3 W3
it ; ∆L it ; L it −1 = ∆L it L it −1 + ∆L it L it −1 + ∆L it L it −1 + ∆LW Lθ −1 + g∆LB ∆LW Lθ1
it it it it
2 3 2 3 it −1
+ allowing for differences in aB, aW, dB, dW, g between MNFs and domestic
firms
INTRODUCTION EMPLOYMENT DYNAMICS PROBABILITY OF EXIT LABOUR ADJUSTMENT COSTS CONCLUSION
34. Labour adjustment costs of incumbents : the role of size
Generalised adjustment cost function → θ1, θB2 θB3, θW2, θW3
AC (
∆LB ; ∆LW ;L it −1
it it ) =
aB
2
B 2 θB 2
∆L it L it −1 +
dB
3
B 3 θB 3
∆L it L it −1 +
aW
2
W 2 θW 2
∆L it L it −1 +
dW
3
it
3 W3
∆LW Lθ −1 + g∆LB ∆LW Lθ1
it it it
it −1
Estimation of θj by random grid search.
Model and Moment Selection Criterion based on Hansen-J statistics
θ<0 → lower adjustment costs for larger firms, but the impact is limited
reduction in adjustment costs for ∆LB=1
-1.9% for domestic firms with L=10
0.001% for domestic firms with L=200
INTRODUCTION EMPLOYMENT DYNAMICS PROBABILITY OF EXIT LABOUR ADJUSTMENT COSTS CONCLUSION
35. Labour adjustment costs of incumbents: estimates
no control controlling Meghir
for size for size specification
aB 291.84*** 782.19*** 16333.13***
aBMNF -93.67 -14.42 205.19**
dB -7.99** -12.70** -2862.81***
dBMNF 7.98** 11.17** -11550.40
aW 1191.58*** 1470.24*** 59616.48***
aWMNF -692.26*** -685.85*** 161.80
dW -20.98** -37.95*** -38557.80***
dWMNF 14.40 27.99** 179522.00
g -283.13*** -5700.69 -7415.29*
gMNF 185.13 -8836.83* 2958.09
Sargan 30.41 24.68 30.32
Notes: 37553 observations and 5544 firms over the period 1998-2006.
Joint estimation for blue-collar workers and white-collar workers by SGMM estimation.
All equations include year and sector dummies.
*** significant at the 1% level, ** significant at the 5% level, * significant at the 10% level.
INTRODUCTION EMPLOYMENT DYNAMICS PROBABILITY OF EXIT LABOUR ADJUSTMENT COSTS CONCLUSION
36. Labour adjustment costs of incumbents: estimates
no control controlling Meghir Total adjustment
for size for size specification
costs for ∆LW=1
700
aB 291.84*** 782.19*** 16333.13***
aBMNF -93.67 -14.42 205.19** 600
dB -7.99** -12.70** -2862.81***
500
dB MNF 7.98** 11.17** -11550.40
aW 1191.58*** 1470.24*** 59616.48*** 400
aWMNF -692.26*** -685.85*** 161.80 300
dW -20.98** -37.95*** -38557.80***
200
dWMNF 14.40 27.99** 179522.00
100
g -283.13*** -5700.69 -7415.29*
gMNF 185.13 -8836.83* 2958.09 0
no control control for
Sargan 30.41 24.68 30.32
for size size; L=200
Notes: 37553 observations and 5544 firms over the period 1998-2006. domestic firms multinational firms
Joint estimation for blue-collar workers and white-collar workers by SGMM estimation.
All equations include year and sector dummies.
*** significant at the 1% level, ** significant at the 5% level, * significant at the 10% level.
INTRODUCTION EMPLOYMENT DYNAMICS PROBABILITY OF EXIT LABOUR ADJUSTMENT COSTS CONCLUSION
37. Conclusion
1. MNFs are large emplyoment providers --- but ajust more and differently
e.g. during 2008-2009
most employment losses in domestic firms were due to exits
most employment losses in MNFs due to employment cuts by incumbents
2. Differences in exit probabilities
MNFs have a smaller unconditional probability of exit than domestic firms
Controlling for firm and sector-level characteristics, MNFs have a significantly higher
probability of exit than domestic firms, but the difference is small (5.8 pp)
3. Differences in labour adjustment costs
adjustment costs are smaller for MNFs, especially for white-collar workers
not (or only very partially )explained by flexible labour management practices or firm size
→ possible interpretation stronger bargaining power vis-à-vis unions and governements
thanks to threat of closure/delocalisation?
INTRODUCTION EMPLOYMENT DYNAMICS PROBABILITY OF EXIT LABOUR ADJUSTMENT COSTS CONCLUSION