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Management Meet Note | Auto Ancillary
                                                                                                                               July 7, 2010



 Amara Raja Batteries                                                                          NOT RATED
                                                                                               NOT RATED
                                                                                               CMP                                   Rs189
 Inching up                                                                                    Target Price                              -
 Key Takeaways                                                                                 Investment Period                          -

        Management has indicated strong demand for batteries aided by healthy                  Stock Info
        growth of the automobile industry and pick up in industrial activities.                Sector                        Auto Ancillary

        High growth in the automobile sector will support around 14% CAGR in the               Market Cap (Rs cr)                     1,611

        OEM segment over FY2010-12E, while large base of auto volume would help                Beta                                    1.02
        the battery industry sustain annual growth of around 8-9% in replacement               52 Week High / Low                    189/73
        segment. The company is operating at more than 95% utilisation levels in               Avg. Daily Volume                     90,616
        auto battery segment.
                                                                                               Face Value (Rs)                            2
        The company is increasing supply to the high-margin replacement segment                BSE Sensex                            17,471
        marginally shifting volumes from the OEM segment in its bid to improve                 Nifty                                  5,241
        margins.
                                                                                               Reuters Code                        AMAR.BO
        To meet the increasing demand in the automobile battery segment, the company           Bloomberg Code                      AMRJ@IN
        has announced capex of around Rs150cr in FY2011, of which around Rs90cr
        would be incurred towards capacity expansion and the balance Rs60cr would              Shareholding Pattern (%)
        be utilised for maintenance capex.                                                     Promoters                               52.1

        The company plans to increase its two-wheeler battery capacity from 1.8mn              MF / Banks / Indian FIIs                13.9

        to 3.6mn by December 2010, with around 0.6mn capacity getting operational              FII / NRIs / OCBs                       15.9
        from June 2010; it also plans to increase capacity of its battery unit that caters     Indian Public / Others                  18.1
        to the four-wheeler segment from 4.2mn to 5.1mn by December 2010.
                                                                                               Abs. (%)             3m       1yr        3yr
        The company proposes to increase its market share in the OEM segment from
                                                                                               Sensex              (2.8)    23.3       16.8
        27% to around 30% in FY2011 and to over 50% over the next five years.
                                                                                               Amara Raja          10.0    122.7      169.9
        Management expects to clock a CAGR of 15% in industrial batteries (excluding
        telecom), over the next couple of years.

Key Financials
 Y/E March (Rs cr)               FY2009          FY2010           FY2011E      FY2012E
 Net Sales                         1,318           1,465            1,790         2,097
 % chg                              21.6            11.2             22.2           17.1
     Profit
 Net Profit                         80.5           159.1            168.3         205.5
 % chg                             (14.7)           97.7              5.8           22.1
 OPM (%)                            13.5            20.8             14.8          15.2
 EPS (Rs)                            9.4            18.6             19.7          24.1
 P/E (x)                            20.0            10.1              9.6            7.8
                                                                                              Vaishali Jajoo
 RoE (%)                            19.8            29.4             24.3          23.4
                                                                                              +91 22 4040 3800 Ext: 344
 RoCE (%)                           13.0            21.1             31.8          30.8       Email: vaishali.jajoo@angeltrade.com
 P/BV                                4.0             3.0              2.3            1.8
                                                                                              Yaresh Kothari
                                                                                                     Kothari
 EV/Sales (x)                        1.4             1.2              1.0            0.9
                                                                                              +91 22 4040 3800 Ext: 313
 EV/EBITDA (x)                      10.3             6.0              6.9            5.7      Email:yareshb.kothari@angeltrade.com
 Source: Company, Angel Research


Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
Amara Raja Batteries | Management Meet Note




               Key Takeaways

                     The company has seen contraction in demand from the telecom batteries segment
                     and estimates it to register annual growth of around 6-7% (has posted more than
                     40% CAGR in the last three years) over the next couple of years. Nonetheless,
                     the company is sanguine about the telecom batteries replacement demand in the
                     long run. Further, the new 3G spectrum licenses would also help the industry
                     register modest CAGR of around 7% over the next few years.
                     The company does not expect substantial volatility in the lead prices going forward
                     on account of high inventory levels at the LME. It aims to maintain its EBITDA
                     margins at around 14-15% over the next couple of years.

                     The company plans to enter the tubular batteries segment in the next couple of
                     years. Tubular batteries are mainly used in material handling equipment.

               Outlook and Valuation

               On the valuation front, the stock is trading at 9.6x and 7.8x FY2011E and FY2012E
               EPS, which is at a significant 47% discount to industry leader, Exide Industries. The gap
               is due to Exide's leadership position and its less dependence on the telecom battery
               segment. However, Amara Raja products have exhibited strong performance and
               continuously increased market share through innovative marketing strategies. Further,
               on the back of improved fundamentals, the company’s return ratios are expected to
               increase as compared to its historical levels. Thus, going ahead, Amara Raja's valuation
               multiple is expected to expand on improved growth and earnings visibility, and the
               valuation gap with Exide would reduce to reasonable levels of around 30-35%.
               Currently,
               Currently, we do not have a Rating on the stock.

               Exhibit 1: AMRL - One-year forward P/E chart
                16
                14
                12
                10
                 8
                 6
                 4
                 2
                 0
                     Apr-04
                     Jun-04
                     Aug-04


                     Feb-05
                     Apr-05
                     Jun-05
                     Aug-05


                     Feb-06
                     Apr-06
                     Jun-06
                     Aug-06


                     Feb-07
                     Apr-07
                     Jun-07
                     Aug-07


                     Feb-08
                     Apr-08
                     Jun-08
                     Aug-08


                     Feb-09
                     Apr-09
                     Jun-09
                     Aug-09


                     Feb-10
                     Apr-10
                     Jun-10
                     Oct-04
                     Dec-04




                     Oct-05
                     Dec-05




                     Oct-06
                     Dec-06




                     Oct-07
                     Dec-07




                     Oct-08
                     Dec-08




                     Oct-09
                     Dec-09




                                                 1 yr forward P/E   3 year average
               Source: Company, Angel Research




July 7, 2010                                                                                          2
July 7, 2010
                                                                                                                                                                      (%)




                                                                                                                                                                                                         0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 0.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       5.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             10.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    15.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           20.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  25.0




                                                                                                                                          (90)
                                                                                                                                                 (80)
                                                                                                                                                        (70)
                                                                                                                                                               (60)
                                                                                                                                                                      (50)
                                                                                                                                                                             (40)
                                                                                                                                                                                    (30)
                                                                                                                                                                                           (20)
                                                                                                                                                                                                  (10)
                                                                                                                                 Apr-04                                                                                                                                                                                 Apr-04
                                                                                                                                 Jun-04                                                                                                                                                                                 Jun-04
                                                                                                                                 Aug-04                                                                                                                                                                                 Aug-04
                                                                                                                                 Oct-04                                                                                                                                                                                 Oct-04
                                                                                                                                 Dec-04                                                                                                                                                                                 Dec-04
                                                                                                                                 Feb-05                                                                                                                                                                                 Feb-05
                                                                                                                                 Apr-05                                                                                                                                                                                 Apr-05
                                                                                                                                 Jun-05                                                                                                                                                                                 Jun-05
                                                                                                                                 Aug-05                                                                                                                                                                                 Aug-05
                                                                                                                                 Oct-05                                                                                                                                                                                 Oct-05
                                                                                                                                 Dec-05                                                                                                                                                                                 Dec-05
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Source: Company, Angel Research




                                                                                                                                 Feb-06                                                                                                                                                                                 Feb-06
                                                                                                                                 Apr-06                                                                                                                                                                                 Apr-06
                                                                                                                                 Jun-06                                                                                                                                                                                 Jun-06
                                                                                                                                 Aug-06                                                                                                                                                                                 Aug-06
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             AMRL




                                                                                                                                 Oct-06                                                                                                                                                                                 Oct-06
                                                                                                                                 Dec-06                                                                                                                                                                                 Dec-06




                                                                                                  prem./ disc. to Exide
                                                                                                                                 Feb-07                                                                                                                                                                                 Feb-07
                                                                                                                                 Apr-07                                                                                                                                                                                 Apr-07
                                                                                                                                 Jun-07                                                                                                                                                                                 Jun-07
                                                                                                                                 Aug-07                                                                                                                                                                                 Aug-07
                                                                                                                                 Oct-07                                                                                                                                                                                 Oct-07
                                                                                                                                                                                                             Exhibit 3: AMRL - Premium/discount to Exide




                                                                                                                                 Dec-07                                                                                                                                                                                 Dec-07
                                                                                                                                 Feb-08                                                                                                                                                                                 Feb-08
                                                                                                                                 Apr-08                                                                                                                                                                                 Apr-08
                                                                                                                                 Jun-08                                                                                                                                                                                 Jun-08
                                                                                                                                 Aug-08                                                                                                                                                                                 Aug-08
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Exhibit 2: AMRL, Exide - One-year forward P/E chart




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Exide Adj. for Insurance




                                                                                                                                 Oct-08                                                                                                                                                                                 Oct-08
                                                                                                  3 year average prem. / disc.   Dec-08                                                                                                                                                                                 Dec-08
                                                                                                                                 Feb-09                                                                                                                                                                                 Feb-09
                                                                                                                                 Apr-09                                                                                                                                                                                 Apr-09
               Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: Exide P/E adjusted for Insurance business
                                                                                                                                 Jun-09                                                                                                                                                                                 Jun-09
                                                                                                                                 Aug-09                                                                                                                                                                                 Aug-09
                                                                                                                                 Oct-09                                                                                                                                                                                 Oct-09
                                                                                                                                 Dec-09                                                                                                                                                                                 Dec-09
                                                                                                                                 Feb-10                                                                                                                                                                                 Feb-10
                                                                                                                                 Apr-10                                                                                                                                                                                 Apr-10
                                                                                                                                 Jun-10                                                                                                                                                                                 Jun-10




3
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Amara Raja Batteries | Management Meet Note
Amara Raja Batteries | Management Meet Note




               Company Background

               Amara Raja Batteries is India's second largest manufacturer of valve regulated lead
               acid (VRLA) batteries for both industrial and automotive applications. It is a joint venture
               between the Galla family and Johnson Controls (NYSE: JCI), with each holding 26%
               stake in the venture. Based in Andhra Pradesh, with a fully integrated manufacturing
               unit for its batteries at Tirupati, Amara Raja has been steadily gaining market share
               across both industrial and automobile segments. ARBL operates in the automotive
               and industrial segments with both the businesses contributing equally to the company's
               financials.

               Industrial battery business

               ARBL's industrial battery product portfolio comprises batteries with capacities ranging
               from 4.5 ampere per hour (Ah) to 5,000Ah and it caters to the Department of
               Telecommunication, Indian Railways, power generation stations and UPS back-up
               systems. The company has developed a niche for itself in the telecom batteries space
               and is the preferred battery supplier to major cellular service providers in the country.
               In the telecom sector, the batteries support switches and networks, Indian Railways
               uses these batteries to power air-conditioning in AC coaches, and the batteries support
               the transmission and distribution networks of power stations. The UPS batteries support
               IT and ITeS operations and form a part of UPS systems to regulate power supply to
               critical equipment during voltage fluctuations. Small VRLA batteries find application in
               small UPS and emergency lamps.

               Exhibit 4: Industrial battery brands
               Brand                         Application
               POWER STACK                   Telecom exchanges, power stations, oil and gas, Indian
                                             Railways and other industrial applications
               QUANTA (UPS Segment)          Indian Railways, IT and ITeS companies, government
                                             agencies and companies in the BFSI segment
               Source: Company, Angel Research

               The telecom batteries contribute 60% of the industrial segment sales, while the rest is
               derived from Indian Railways, UPS, power utilities and others. As on March 2010,
               ARBL had 27% market share in the industrial battery segment.

               Automotive battery business

               In the automotive battery space, ARBL operates in both the OEM and replacement
               segments. ARBL has original equipment contracts with most of the four-wheeler makers
               including prestigious clients like Maruti, Hyundai, Ashok Leyland, Tata Motors, M&M,
               TAFE and others. The company has a market share of 27% in the auto OEM space.
               The company is very active in the replacement segment and has consistently increased
               its market share from 20% in FY2007 to 28% in FY2010.




July 7, 2010                                                                                             4
Amara Raja Batteries | Management Meet Note




               Exhibit 5: Automobile battery brands
               Brand                                              Application
               PRO, FLO, GO, BLACK                                Passenger cars
               HI-WAY                                             Commercial vehicles
               HARVEST                                            Tractors
               SHIELD                                             Inverters
               FRESH                                              Passenger/MUV
               PRO BIKE RIDER                                     Two wheelers
               Source: Company, Angel Research

               Exhibit 6: Market share trend across segments
                      30                                28   28              28                            28
                            26        27                                                 27       27            27
                                                  26
                                                                                    25
                      25
                                 20
                      20
                (%)




                      15

                      10

                       5

                       0
                              FY2007                   FY2008                     FY2009             FY2010

                                      Automotive OEM         Organised Auto aftermarket       Industrial
               Source: Company, Angel Research


               The company has a tie up with Maruti Suzuki and has launched a co-branded
               replacement battery under the Amaron MGB brand, which will be available across
               Maruti network of 3,000 plus authorised outlets.

               ARBL has steadily expanded its retail network, which now comprises more than 200
               franchisees and around 19,000 retailers and has also strengthened the presence
               through 700 PowerZone outlets in semi-urban and rural locations. A wider retail network
               along with strategic alliance with Maruti Suzuki would assist in better penetration of
               the replacement market.




July 7, 2010                                                                                                         5
Amara Raja Batteries




Disclaimer
This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment
decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make
such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies
referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and
risks of such an investment.

Angel Securities Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make investment
decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document are
those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within.

Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and trading
volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals.

The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources
believed to be true, and is for general guidance only. Angel Securities Limited has not independently verified all the information contained
within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents
or data contained within this document. While Angel Securities Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information
discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so.

This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced, redistributed
or passed on, directly or indirectly.

Angel Securities Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or other
advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in the past.

Neither Angel Securities Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in
connection with the use of this information.

Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section).




  Disclosure of Interest Statement                                         Amara Raja Batteries
  1. Analyst ownership of the stock                                                 No
  2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock                           Yes
  3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock                No
  4. Broking relationship with company covered                                      No

 Note: We have not considered any Exposure below Rs 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.



  Ratings (Returns) :             Buy (> 15%)                             Accumulate (5% to 15%)                       Neutral (-5 to 5%)
                                  Reduce (-5% to -15%)                    Sell (< -15%)
Amara Raja Batteries




                Address: Acme Plaza, ‘A’ Wing, 3rd Floor, M.V. Road, Opp. Sangam Cinema, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 059.
                                                         Tel : (022) 3952 4568 / 4040 3800

Research Team
Fundamental:
Sarabjit Kour Nangra                                                                               VP-Research, Pharmaceutical                                                            sarabjit@angeltrade.com
Vaibhav Agrawal                                                                                    VP-Research, Banking                                                                   vaibhav.agrawal@angeltrade.com
Vaishali Jajoo                                                                                     Automobile                                                                             vaishali.jajoo@angeltrade.com
Shailesh Kanani                                                                                    Infrastructure, Real Estate                                                            shailesh.kanani@angeltrade.com
Anand Shah                                                                                         FMCG , Media                                                                           anand.shah@angeltrade.com
Deepak Pareek                                                                                      Oil & Gas                                                                              deepak.pareek@angeltrade.com
Sushant Dalmia                                                                                     Pharmaceutical                                                                         sushant.dalmia@angeltrade.com
Rupesh Sankhe                                                                                      Cement, Power                                                                          rupeshd.sankhe@angeltrade.com
Param Desai                                                                                        Real Estate, Logistics, Shipping                                                       paramv.desai@angeltrade.com
Sageraj Bariya                                                                                     Fertiliser, Mid-cap                                                                    sageraj.bariya@angeltrade.com
Viraj Nadkarni                                                                                     Retail, Hotels, Mid-cap                                                                virajm.nadkarni@angeltrade.com
Paresh Jain                                                                                        Metals & Mining                                                                        pareshn.jain@angeltrade.com
Amit Rane                                                                                          Banking                                                                                amitn.rane@angeltrade.com
Jai Sharda                                                                                         Mid-cap                                                                                jai.sharda@angeltrade.com
Sharan Lillaney                                                                                    Mid-cap                                                                                sharanb.lillaney@angeltrade.com

Amit Vora                                                                                          Research Associate (Oil & Gas)                                                         amit.vora@angeltrade.com
V Srinivasan                                                                                       Research Associate (Cement, Power)                                                     v.srinivasan@angeltrade.com
Aniruddha Mate                                                                                     Research Associate (Infra, Real Estate)                                                aniruddha.mate@angeltrade.com
Mihir Salot                                                                                        Research Associate (Logistics, Shipping)                                               mihirr.salot@angeltrade.com
Chitrangda Kapur                                                                                   Research Associate (FMCG, Media)                                                       chitrangdar.kapur@angeltrade.com
Vibha Salvi                                                                                        Research Associate (IT, Telecom)                                                       vibhas.salvi@angeltrade.com
Pooja Jain                                                                                         Research Associate (Metals & Mining)                                                   pooja.j@angeltrade.com

Technicals:
Shardul Kulkarni                                                                                   Sr. Technical Analyst                                                                  shardul.kulkarni@angeltrade.com
Mileen Vasudeo                                                                                     Technical Analyst                                                                      vasudeo.kamalakant@angeltrade.com
Derivatives:
Siddarth Bhamre                                                                                    Head - Derivatives                                                                     siddarth.bhamre@angeltrade.com
Jaya Agarwal                                                                                       Derivative Analyst                                                                     jaya.agarwal@angeltrade.com


Institutional Sales Team:
Mayuresh Joshi                                                                                     VP - Institutional Sales                                                               mayuresh.joshi@angeltrade.com
Abhimanyu Sofat                                                                                    AVP - Institutional Sales                                                              abhimanyu.sofat@angeltrade.com
Nitesh Jalan                                                                                       Sr. Manager                                                                            niteshk.jalan@angeltrade.com
Pranav Modi                                                                                        Sr. Manager                                                                            pranavs.modi@angeltrade.com
Sandeep Jangir                                                                                     Sr. Manager                                                                            sandeepp.jangir@angeltrade.com
Ganesh Iyer                                                                                        Sr. Manager                                                                            ganeshb.Iyer@angeltrade.com
Jay Harsora                                                                                        Sr. Dealer                                                                             jayr.harsora@angeltrade.com
Meenakshi Chavan                                                                                   Dealer                                                                                 meenakshis.chavan@angeltrade.com
Gaurang Tisani                                                                                     Dealer                                                                                 gaurangp.tisani@angeltrade.com


Production Team:
Bharathi Shetty                                                                                    Research Editor                                                                        bharathi.shetty@angeltrade.com
Simran Kaur                                                                                        Research Editor                                                                        simran.kaur@angeltrade.com
Bharat Patil                                                                                       Production                                                                             bharat.patil@angeltrade.com
Dilip Patel                                                                                        Production                                                                             dilipm.patel@angeltrade.com




Angel Broking Ltd: BSE Sebi Regn No : INB 010996539 / CDSL Regn No: IN - DP - CDSL - 234 - 2004 / PMS Regn Code: PM/INP000001546 Angel Securities Ltd:BSE: INB010994639/INF010994639 NSE: INB230994635/INF230994635 Membership numbers: BSE 028/NSE:09946
Angel Capital & Debt Market Ltd: INB 231279838 / NSE FNO: INF 231279838 / NSE Member code -12798 Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd: MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM / CORP / 0037 NCDEX : Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302

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Amara Raja Batteries-Management Meet Note

  • 1. Management Meet Note | Auto Ancillary July 7, 2010 Amara Raja Batteries NOT RATED NOT RATED CMP Rs189 Inching up Target Price - Key Takeaways Investment Period - Management has indicated strong demand for batteries aided by healthy Stock Info growth of the automobile industry and pick up in industrial activities. Sector Auto Ancillary High growth in the automobile sector will support around 14% CAGR in the Market Cap (Rs cr) 1,611 OEM segment over FY2010-12E, while large base of auto volume would help Beta 1.02 the battery industry sustain annual growth of around 8-9% in replacement 52 Week High / Low 189/73 segment. The company is operating at more than 95% utilisation levels in Avg. Daily Volume 90,616 auto battery segment. Face Value (Rs) 2 The company is increasing supply to the high-margin replacement segment BSE Sensex 17,471 marginally shifting volumes from the OEM segment in its bid to improve Nifty 5,241 margins. Reuters Code AMAR.BO To meet the increasing demand in the automobile battery segment, the company Bloomberg Code AMRJ@IN has announced capex of around Rs150cr in FY2011, of which around Rs90cr would be incurred towards capacity expansion and the balance Rs60cr would Shareholding Pattern (%) be utilised for maintenance capex. Promoters 52.1 The company plans to increase its two-wheeler battery capacity from 1.8mn MF / Banks / Indian FIIs 13.9 to 3.6mn by December 2010, with around 0.6mn capacity getting operational FII / NRIs / OCBs 15.9 from June 2010; it also plans to increase capacity of its battery unit that caters Indian Public / Others 18.1 to the four-wheeler segment from 4.2mn to 5.1mn by December 2010. Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr The company proposes to increase its market share in the OEM segment from Sensex (2.8) 23.3 16.8 27% to around 30% in FY2011 and to over 50% over the next five years. Amara Raja 10.0 122.7 169.9 Management expects to clock a CAGR of 15% in industrial batteries (excluding telecom), over the next couple of years. Key Financials Y/E March (Rs cr) FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E Net Sales 1,318 1,465 1,790 2,097 % chg 21.6 11.2 22.2 17.1 Profit Net Profit 80.5 159.1 168.3 205.5 % chg (14.7) 97.7 5.8 22.1 OPM (%) 13.5 20.8 14.8 15.2 EPS (Rs) 9.4 18.6 19.7 24.1 P/E (x) 20.0 10.1 9.6 7.8 Vaishali Jajoo RoE (%) 19.8 29.4 24.3 23.4 +91 22 4040 3800 Ext: 344 RoCE (%) 13.0 21.1 31.8 30.8 Email: vaishali.jajoo@angeltrade.com P/BV 4.0 3.0 2.3 1.8 Yaresh Kothari Kothari EV/Sales (x) 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.9 +91 22 4040 3800 Ext: 313 EV/EBITDA (x) 10.3 6.0 6.9 5.7 Email:yareshb.kothari@angeltrade.com Source: Company, Angel Research Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
  • 2. Amara Raja Batteries | Management Meet Note Key Takeaways The company has seen contraction in demand from the telecom batteries segment and estimates it to register annual growth of around 6-7% (has posted more than 40% CAGR in the last three years) over the next couple of years. Nonetheless, the company is sanguine about the telecom batteries replacement demand in the long run. Further, the new 3G spectrum licenses would also help the industry register modest CAGR of around 7% over the next few years. The company does not expect substantial volatility in the lead prices going forward on account of high inventory levels at the LME. It aims to maintain its EBITDA margins at around 14-15% over the next couple of years. The company plans to enter the tubular batteries segment in the next couple of years. Tubular batteries are mainly used in material handling equipment. Outlook and Valuation On the valuation front, the stock is trading at 9.6x and 7.8x FY2011E and FY2012E EPS, which is at a significant 47% discount to industry leader, Exide Industries. The gap is due to Exide's leadership position and its less dependence on the telecom battery segment. However, Amara Raja products have exhibited strong performance and continuously increased market share through innovative marketing strategies. Further, on the back of improved fundamentals, the company’s return ratios are expected to increase as compared to its historical levels. Thus, going ahead, Amara Raja's valuation multiple is expected to expand on improved growth and earnings visibility, and the valuation gap with Exide would reduce to reasonable levels of around 30-35%. Currently, Currently, we do not have a Rating on the stock. Exhibit 1: AMRL - One-year forward P/E chart 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Apr-04 Jun-04 Aug-04 Feb-05 Apr-05 Jun-05 Aug-05 Feb-06 Apr-06 Jun-06 Aug-06 Feb-07 Apr-07 Jun-07 Aug-07 Feb-08 Apr-08 Jun-08 Aug-08 Feb-09 Apr-09 Jun-09 Aug-09 Feb-10 Apr-10 Jun-10 Oct-04 Dec-04 Oct-05 Dec-05 Oct-06 Dec-06 Oct-07 Dec-07 Oct-08 Dec-08 Oct-09 Dec-09 1 yr forward P/E 3 year average Source: Company, Angel Research July 7, 2010 2
  • 3. July 7, 2010 (%) 0 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 (90) (80) (70) (60) (50) (40) (30) (20) (10) Apr-04 Apr-04 Jun-04 Jun-04 Aug-04 Aug-04 Oct-04 Oct-04 Dec-04 Dec-04 Feb-05 Feb-05 Apr-05 Apr-05 Jun-05 Jun-05 Aug-05 Aug-05 Oct-05 Oct-05 Dec-05 Dec-05 Source: Company, Angel Research Feb-06 Feb-06 Apr-06 Apr-06 Jun-06 Jun-06 Aug-06 Aug-06 AMRL Oct-06 Oct-06 Dec-06 Dec-06 prem./ disc. to Exide Feb-07 Feb-07 Apr-07 Apr-07 Jun-07 Jun-07 Aug-07 Aug-07 Oct-07 Oct-07 Exhibit 3: AMRL - Premium/discount to Exide Dec-07 Dec-07 Feb-08 Feb-08 Apr-08 Apr-08 Jun-08 Jun-08 Aug-08 Aug-08 Exhibit 2: AMRL, Exide - One-year forward P/E chart Exide Adj. for Insurance Oct-08 Oct-08 3 year average prem. / disc. Dec-08 Dec-08 Feb-09 Feb-09 Apr-09 Apr-09 Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: Exide P/E adjusted for Insurance business Jun-09 Jun-09 Aug-09 Aug-09 Oct-09 Oct-09 Dec-09 Dec-09 Feb-10 Feb-10 Apr-10 Apr-10 Jun-10 Jun-10 3 Amara Raja Batteries | Management Meet Note
  • 4. Amara Raja Batteries | Management Meet Note Company Background Amara Raja Batteries is India's second largest manufacturer of valve regulated lead acid (VRLA) batteries for both industrial and automotive applications. It is a joint venture between the Galla family and Johnson Controls (NYSE: JCI), with each holding 26% stake in the venture. Based in Andhra Pradesh, with a fully integrated manufacturing unit for its batteries at Tirupati, Amara Raja has been steadily gaining market share across both industrial and automobile segments. ARBL operates in the automotive and industrial segments with both the businesses contributing equally to the company's financials. Industrial battery business ARBL's industrial battery product portfolio comprises batteries with capacities ranging from 4.5 ampere per hour (Ah) to 5,000Ah and it caters to the Department of Telecommunication, Indian Railways, power generation stations and UPS back-up systems. The company has developed a niche for itself in the telecom batteries space and is the preferred battery supplier to major cellular service providers in the country. In the telecom sector, the batteries support switches and networks, Indian Railways uses these batteries to power air-conditioning in AC coaches, and the batteries support the transmission and distribution networks of power stations. The UPS batteries support IT and ITeS operations and form a part of UPS systems to regulate power supply to critical equipment during voltage fluctuations. Small VRLA batteries find application in small UPS and emergency lamps. Exhibit 4: Industrial battery brands Brand Application POWER STACK Telecom exchanges, power stations, oil and gas, Indian Railways and other industrial applications QUANTA (UPS Segment) Indian Railways, IT and ITeS companies, government agencies and companies in the BFSI segment Source: Company, Angel Research The telecom batteries contribute 60% of the industrial segment sales, while the rest is derived from Indian Railways, UPS, power utilities and others. As on March 2010, ARBL had 27% market share in the industrial battery segment. Automotive battery business In the automotive battery space, ARBL operates in both the OEM and replacement segments. ARBL has original equipment contracts with most of the four-wheeler makers including prestigious clients like Maruti, Hyundai, Ashok Leyland, Tata Motors, M&M, TAFE and others. The company has a market share of 27% in the auto OEM space. The company is very active in the replacement segment and has consistently increased its market share from 20% in FY2007 to 28% in FY2010. July 7, 2010 4
  • 5. Amara Raja Batteries | Management Meet Note Exhibit 5: Automobile battery brands Brand Application PRO, FLO, GO, BLACK Passenger cars HI-WAY Commercial vehicles HARVEST Tractors SHIELD Inverters FRESH Passenger/MUV PRO BIKE RIDER Two wheelers Source: Company, Angel Research Exhibit 6: Market share trend across segments 30 28 28 28 28 26 27 27 27 27 26 25 25 20 20 (%) 15 10 5 0 FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 Automotive OEM Organised Auto aftermarket Industrial Source: Company, Angel Research The company has a tie up with Maruti Suzuki and has launched a co-branded replacement battery under the Amaron MGB brand, which will be available across Maruti network of 3,000 plus authorised outlets. ARBL has steadily expanded its retail network, which now comprises more than 200 franchisees and around 19,000 retailers and has also strengthened the presence through 700 PowerZone outlets in semi-urban and rural locations. A wider retail network along with strategic alliance with Maruti Suzuki would assist in better penetration of the replacement market. July 7, 2010 5
  • 6. Amara Raja Batteries Disclaimer This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. Angel Securities Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within. Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals. The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true, and is for general guidance only. Angel Securities Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While Angel Securities Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly. Angel Securities Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in the past. Neither Angel Securities Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in connection with the use of this information. Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Disclosure of Interest Statement Amara Raja Batteries 1. Analyst ownership of the stock No 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock Yes 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No 4. Broking relationship with company covered No Note: We have not considered any Exposure below Rs 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors. Ratings (Returns) : Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%) Reduce (-5% to -15%) Sell (< -15%)
  • 7. Amara Raja Batteries Address: Acme Plaza, ‘A’ Wing, 3rd Floor, M.V. Road, Opp. Sangam Cinema, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 059. Tel : (022) 3952 4568 / 4040 3800 Research Team Fundamental: Sarabjit Kour Nangra VP-Research, Pharmaceutical sarabjit@angeltrade.com Vaibhav Agrawal VP-Research, Banking vaibhav.agrawal@angeltrade.com Vaishali Jajoo Automobile vaishali.jajoo@angeltrade.com Shailesh Kanani Infrastructure, Real Estate shailesh.kanani@angeltrade.com Anand Shah FMCG , Media anand.shah@angeltrade.com Deepak Pareek Oil & Gas deepak.pareek@angeltrade.com Sushant Dalmia Pharmaceutical sushant.dalmia@angeltrade.com Rupesh Sankhe Cement, Power rupeshd.sankhe@angeltrade.com Param Desai Real Estate, Logistics, Shipping paramv.desai@angeltrade.com Sageraj Bariya Fertiliser, Mid-cap sageraj.bariya@angeltrade.com Viraj Nadkarni Retail, Hotels, Mid-cap virajm.nadkarni@angeltrade.com Paresh Jain Metals & Mining pareshn.jain@angeltrade.com Amit Rane Banking amitn.rane@angeltrade.com Jai Sharda Mid-cap jai.sharda@angeltrade.com Sharan Lillaney Mid-cap sharanb.lillaney@angeltrade.com Amit Vora Research Associate (Oil & Gas) amit.vora@angeltrade.com V Srinivasan Research Associate (Cement, Power) v.srinivasan@angeltrade.com Aniruddha Mate Research Associate (Infra, Real Estate) aniruddha.mate@angeltrade.com Mihir Salot Research Associate (Logistics, Shipping) mihirr.salot@angeltrade.com Chitrangda Kapur Research Associate (FMCG, Media) chitrangdar.kapur@angeltrade.com Vibha Salvi Research Associate (IT, Telecom) vibhas.salvi@angeltrade.com Pooja Jain Research Associate (Metals & Mining) pooja.j@angeltrade.com Technicals: Shardul Kulkarni Sr. Technical Analyst shardul.kulkarni@angeltrade.com Mileen Vasudeo Technical Analyst vasudeo.kamalakant@angeltrade.com Derivatives: Siddarth Bhamre Head - Derivatives siddarth.bhamre@angeltrade.com Jaya Agarwal Derivative Analyst jaya.agarwal@angeltrade.com Institutional Sales Team: Mayuresh Joshi VP - Institutional Sales mayuresh.joshi@angeltrade.com Abhimanyu Sofat AVP - Institutional Sales abhimanyu.sofat@angeltrade.com Nitesh Jalan Sr. Manager niteshk.jalan@angeltrade.com Pranav Modi Sr. Manager pranavs.modi@angeltrade.com Sandeep Jangir Sr. Manager sandeepp.jangir@angeltrade.com Ganesh Iyer Sr. Manager ganeshb.Iyer@angeltrade.com Jay Harsora Sr. Dealer jayr.harsora@angeltrade.com Meenakshi Chavan Dealer meenakshis.chavan@angeltrade.com Gaurang Tisani Dealer gaurangp.tisani@angeltrade.com Production Team: Bharathi Shetty Research Editor bharathi.shetty@angeltrade.com Simran Kaur Research Editor simran.kaur@angeltrade.com Bharat Patil Production bharat.patil@angeltrade.com Dilip Patel Production dilipm.patel@angeltrade.com Angel Broking Ltd: BSE Sebi Regn No : INB 010996539 / CDSL Regn No: IN - DP - CDSL - 234 - 2004 / PMS Regn Code: PM/INP000001546 Angel Securities Ltd:BSE: INB010994639/INF010994639 NSE: INB230994635/INF230994635 Membership numbers: BSE 028/NSE:09946 Angel Capital & Debt Market Ltd: INB 231279838 / NSE FNO: INF 231279838 / NSE Member code -12798 Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd: MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM / CORP / 0037 NCDEX : Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302