• B-Toto is worth a bet now as i) its core gaming operations remained resilient even
during the post-CNY off-peak period and appear likely to surpass our 6-7% gaming
revenue growth target for FY4/09, ii) 2009’s special draw allocations for all three
NFOs could take place over the next few weeks and iii) there is upside potential to its
6-8% gross dividend yield based on its policy of a minimum payout of 75% if B-Toto
dishes out higher dividends to lend its parent a helping hand.
• Adjusting earnings but implied yields still decent. We raise our FY09-11’s
revenue per draw growth assumptions by 2-4% pts following the stronger-thanexpected
YTD showing. But FY10-11’s bottomline is lowered by 4-5% as we also
raise our blended prize payout assumption from 62-64% to 63-64% to better reflect
the payout trends seen so far. FY09’s numbers are largely intact despite these
adjustments. Even after a 3-5% cut in our FY10-11 DPS projections (unchanged
80% payout ratio), our forecasts still imply a decent yield.
• Reiterate OUTPERFORM. Our DPS downgrades trim our end-CY09 target price
from RM5.95 to RM5.65, based on an unchanged 5% discount to its DDM value. We
continue to like B-Toto for its steady, low-risk topline growth, superior ROEs and
sustainable dividend yields. Being a low-beta stock, B-Toto may fall out of favour in a
rising market. However, we flag the likelihood of bumper dividends over the short
term. This is a potential share price catalyst that underpins our OUTPERFORM
recommendation, along with the normalisation of luck factor and market share gains.
1. COMPANY UPDATE
28 April 2009
MALAYSIA
CIMB Research Report
OUTPERFORM Maintained
Berjaya Sports Toto Bhd RM4.72 @27/04/09
A worthwhile bet Target: RM5.65
Gaming
BST MK / BSTB.KL Soh May Yee +60 (3) 2084 9964 – mayyee.soh@cimb.com
• B-Toto is worth a bet now as i) its core gaming operations remained resilient even
during the post-CNY off-peak period and appear likely to surpass our 6-7% gaming
revenue growth target for FY4/09, ii) 2009’s special draw allocations for all three
NFOs could take place over the next few weeks and iii) there is upside potential to its
6-8% gross dividend yield based on its policy of a minimum payout of 75% if B-Toto
dishes out higher dividends to lend its parent a helping hand.
• Adjusting earnings but implied yields still decent. We raise our FY09-11’s
revenue per draw growth assumptions by 2-4% pts following the stronger-than-
expected YTD showing. But FY10-11’s bottomline is lowered by 4-5% as we also
raise our blended prize payout assumption from 62-64% to 63-64% to better reflect
the payout trends seen so far. FY09’s numbers are largely intact despite these
adjustments. Even after a 3-5% cut in our FY10-11 DPS projections (unchanged
80% payout ratio), our forecasts still imply a decent yield.
• Reiterate OUTPERFORM. Our DPS downgrades trim our end-CY09 target price
from RM5.95 to RM5.65, based on an unchanged 5% discount to its DDM value. We
continue to like B-Toto for its steady, low-risk topline growth, superior ROEs and
sustainable dividend yields. Being a low-beta stock, B-Toto may fall out of favour in a
rising market. However, we flag the likelihood of bumper dividends over the short
term. This is a potential share price catalyst that underpins our OUTPERFORM
recommendation, along with the normalisation of luck factor and market share gains.
Financial summary
FYE Apr 2007 2008 2009F 2010F 2011F
Revenue (RM m) 3,035.3 3,277.8 3,633.9 3,656.5 3,729.1
EBITDA (RM m) 558.6 530.1 595.5 644.6 657.7
EBITDA margins (%) 18.4% 16.2% 16.4% 17.6% 17.6%
Pretax profit (RM m) 545.3 502.6 577.4 623.4 639.9
Net profit (RM m) 375.7 348.7 405.6 438.8 450.6
EPS (sen) 27.8 25.8 30.0 32.5 33.4
EPS growth (%) (23.3%) (7.2%) 16.3% 8.2% 2.7%
P/E (x) 17.0 18.3 15.7 14.5 14.2
FD core P/E (x) 17.0 18.3 15.7 14.5 14.2
Gross DPS (sen) 45.0 35.0 30.0 35.0 36.0
Dividend yield (%) 9.5% 7.4% 6.4% 7.4% 7.6%
P/BV (x) 15.2 19.3 16.6 13.6 11.5
ROE (%) 45.3% 93.1% 113.3% 102.7% 88.0%
Net gearing (%) 52.7% 66.1% 39.5% 14.7% N/A
Net cash per share (RM) N/A N/A N/A N/A 0.02
P/FCFE (x) 8.0 22.6 19.5 15.9 14.0
EV/EBITDA (x) 11.8 12.5 11.0 10.0 9.7
% change in EPS estimates - -3.8% -4.8%
CIMB/Consensus (x) 0.94 0.96 0.92
Source: Company, CIMB Research, Bloomberg
Price chart Market capitalisation & share price info
12M
Market cap RM6,377m/US$1,771m Share price perf. (%) 1M 3M
5.00
5.4
4.50
(9.3) (7.4) 22.8
12-mth price range RM5.15/RM4.22 Relative
4.00
5.2
3.50
5.0
0.4 4.0 (6.5)
3-mth avg daily volume 0.9m Absolute
3.00
4.8
2.50
% held
# of shares (m) 1,351 Major shareholders
2.00
4.6
1.50
51.4
4.4
Est. free float (%) 35.0 Berjaya Land
1.00
4.2
0.50
5.6
Conv. secs (m) None Tan Sri Vincent Tan
0.00
4.0
Apr-08 Sep-08 Feb-09
Conv. price ( )
Volume 1m (R.H.Scale) Berjaya Sports Toto Bhd
Source: Bloomberg Source: Company, CIMB Research, Bloomberg
Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this publication.
2. Background
After our recent teleconversation with the management of Berjaya Sports Toto (B-Toto),
we arrived at the following conclusions: i) B-Toto’s core gaming operations remained
resilient even during the post-CNY off-peak period and appear likely to surpass our 6-
7% gaming revenue growth target for FY4/09, ii) 2009’s special draw allocations for all
three number forecast operators (NFOs) could take place over the next few weeks, and
iii) the group remains committed to its minimum 75% dividend payout policy.
Core operations in resilient mode
Post-CNY trends still holding up. Despite the lacklustre economic conditions, post-
CNY punting interest has not fallen drastically from the off-peak norms witnessed during
previous years, based on management feedback. This is supported by our observations
during random visits to several key outlets over the weekends. Such a scenario is not
overly surprising and supports our earlier view that the NFO segment should be able to
weather the economic storm given the low entry cost for both 4D and lottery games.
Satisfactory 4QFY4/09 sales expected … We expect the upcoming 4QFY4/09 results
to show a more pronounced CNY effect than its preceding quarter given CNY’s two-
week impact in February vs. one week in January. Having said that, we note that 4Q09
played host to six fewer draw days than 3Q09’s 46 draw days which was a record high
(Figure 1). Also, with the Mega 6/52 Jackpot offering an average jackpot of RM6.5m so
far in 4Q vs. 3Q09’s RM11.2m average, contributions from the lotto segment are
expected to normalise qoq. We highlighted before the positive correlation between
historical ticket sales and jackpot sizes (Figure 2 & 3). This correlation is further
affirmed by the trend so far in 4Q that shows a lower lotto revenue average of about
RM1.0m vs. last quarter’s RM1.5m. Taking all these into consideration, we expect B-
Toto to post a weaker 4Q09 topline qoq.
… but on track to post record high topline in FY09. Notwithstanding a relatively
unexciting 4Q09, B-Toto appears on track to rack up another record for turnover in
FY09. 9MFY09 revenue is already showing strong double-digit growth of 17% yoy. With
the 9M topline making up 81% of our full-year forecast, our projection appears
increasingly conservative given that post-CNY revenues have been holding up well.
Although we expect 4Q09’s revenue per draw to dip qoq, our current projections imply a
drastic double-digit yoy drop. As such, B-Toto’s FY09 topline could easily breach the
RM3.5bn mark for the first time.
Figure 1: B-Toto’s quarterly breakdown of draw days
1QFY09 2QFY09 3QFY09 4QFY09 FY09 FY08
Normal draws 39 39 40 38 156 157
Special draws 0 2 6 2 10 8
Total draw days 39 41 46 40 166 165
Source: Company, CIMB Research
Figure 2: B-Toto’s lotto revenue per draw trend (RM m)
Lotto Revenue (LHS) Cumulative Jackpot Offering (RHS)
4.0 40
35
3.0 30
25
2.0 20
15
1.0 10
5
0.0 0
May-07 Jul-07 Sep-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 Mar-08 Jun-08 Aug-08 Oct-08 Dec-08 Feb-09
Source: Company, CIMB Research
[2]
3. Figure 3: Correlation between Mega 6/52 sales and jackpot size
Mega 6/52 revenue (LHS) Mega 6/52 Jackpot (RHS)
2.5 25
2.0 20
1.5 15
1.0 10
0.5 5
0.0 0
Jun-07 Sep-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Aug-08 Oct-08 Dec-08 Feb-09 Apr-09
Source: Company, CIMB Research
Luck turning in B-Toto’s favour? We have assumed an average prize payout of c.
64% for FY09, broadly in line with the YTD payout. But because of a lower revenue
base, this implies a gross payout of about 62% for 4Q09, below the blended theoretical
of about 63-64%. To recap, B-Toto was weighed down by a higher 67% prize payout
during 3Q09. During our recent update with management, we learnt that the luck factor
has normalised from last quarter and should be better than 4Q08’s 70%. On a full-year
basis, prize payout is expected to be slightly better than last year’s 65%, suggesting
that our current 63.5% could be slightly optimistic.
Lotto advantage – driving revenue per draw upwards. We expect B-Toto’s revenue
per draw to reach a record level in FY09 (Figure 4). To recap, the highest quarterly
revenue per draw growth (+21.6% yoy) was seen in 2QFY09. Besides sustained
punting interest for its flagship 4D games, 2Q’s impressive yoy growth could have also
been due to the 6/52 Mega Jackpot offering its highest ever payout of RM20m for a
good eight weeks during the quarter. 9MFY09 revenue per draw stood at RM22.3m,
already 16% higher yoy. B-Toto’s FY09 revenue per draw appears set to breach the
RM20m mark for the first time and could easily surpass our assumption of RM20.9m.
Going forward, the Dec 08 increase in the maximum jackpot payout for its Mega 6/52
lotto variant from RM20m to RM30m is expected to sustain, if not increase, lotto punting
interest as the jackpot gradually snowballs.
Figure 4: B-Toto’s revenue per draw growing steadily (RM m)
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09F
Source: Company, CIMB Research
Extending pole position further. Besides providing an additional revenue stream, B-
Toto’s monopolistic lotto offering is also benefiting its flagship 4D games indirectly by
attracting more punters to its network of outlets. It is, therefore, not entirely surprising
that B-Toto continues to gain market share in the mature NFO market. B-Toto’s more
extensive network of 680 outlets vs. its peers’ 350-480 outlets could have also helped it
to claw about 1% pt of market share in 2H08 to 42% (Figure 5).
Growth momentum to chug along with industry’s. With a minimal cash outlay
requirement coupled with its habitual nature, the NFO segment should exhibit resilience
despite the uncertain macro environment. We forecast an unexciting 1-2% annual
growth for the overall market over the next three years, with the marginal uptick largely
fuelled by the country’s rising younger population. As it already has a large base, B-
Toto should be able to leverage its market leadership and lotto advantage to keep pace
with the wider NFO sector’s growth momentum.
[3]
4. Figure 5: Comparison of market share (%)
50 B-Toto Magnum Tanjong
45
40
35
30
25
20
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008E
Source: Company, CIMB Research
Special draws for 2009 as well?
Completed 2008’s allocation. B-Toto conducted the last two special draws of its 2008
allocation at end-Feb 09 and early Mar 09. These draws will be reflected in its 4QFY09
results, bringing total draw days to 40 days, exactly matching 4Q08’s tally but six less
than in 3Q09. To recap, B-Toto’s impressive 3Q09 topline growth of 23% yoy was partly
boosted by the six special draw days which fell within the quarter, bringing total draw
days to a record 46 days. The other two NFO players are expected to complete their
2008 allocations by end-May 09.
Special draws – a win-win situation. While special draws are allocated at the
discretion of the government, a check of the past eight years showed that special draws
were indeed an annual feature (Figure 6). The consistency of such allocations is not a
surprise as special draws are known to pad the government’s tax coffers more
effectively than a tax hike. Special draws are accompanied by an additional 10% tax on
revenues earned for an equivalent number of preceding draws. As a result, both the
government (extra tax collection) and the NFO players (additional topline source) stand
to gain from such allocations.
Only a matter of time? Given the historical consistency of such allocations, we
continue to believe that special draws will remain an annual feature for the NFO
players. Although such draws are usually dished out during 1Q, 2008’s allocation took
place only in Oct 08 because of the change in the domestic political landscape following
the Mar 08 general election. For 2009, we are not particularly surprised that the
government did not stick to its pre-2008 practice of announcing such allocations during
1Q. This is because up to now, the other two NFOs are still taking turns to complete
their 2008 allocations. Timing-wise, we believe that such allocations could be allotted as
soon as the next few weeks. Our current earnings projections impute five special draw
days each for FY10 and FY11, which is low compared to the 8-15 days allocated over
the past five years. Assuming i) a normalised luck factor and ii) revenue per draw of
RM21m, every extra special draw day allocation could add 0.5-0.6% to the bottomline.
Figure 6: Number of draw days for B-Toto
FY Normal draws Special draws Total draws
FY02 156 5 161
FY03 157 6 163
FY04 156 10 166
FY05 157 13 170
FY06 157 15 172
FY07 156 12 168
FY08 157 8 165
FY09 156 10 166
FY10F 156 5 161
FY11F 157 5 162
Source: Company, CIMB Research
Betting on bumper dividends?
A minimum 75% DPS payout policy. Although the dividends that B-Toto has declared
YTD work out to a payout ratio of only 58.9%, the group stressed that it remains
committed to a minimum 75% payout for the full year. Assuming no sharp fluctuations in
[4]
5. the luck factor, this suggests a bumper gross DPS of 11 sen in 4Q09, more than 80%
higher qoq and about 20% higher than the 4Q08 DPS. If so, this could take the total
gross DPS for FY09 to 30 sen, equivalent to 6.4% gross yield.
Slim possibility of higher payout… Based purely on B-Toto’s YTD payout, which is
noticeably below the 75% minimum level, it appears too optimistic to assume that FY09
total payout could be much higher than 75%. Also, we note that FY05-08’s >100%
dividend payouts were undertaken, we believe, to help its parent, Berjaya Land (BL MK,
Not Rated), to settle the latter’s inter-company loans. With the inter-company loan issue
settled and out of the picture, we earlier thought it overoptimistic to assume higher
payouts going forward.
… or not? However, we note that Berjaya Land is likely to require up to RM880m cash
over the next 3-6 months as its 5-year exchangeable bonds have a put option allowing
bondholders to redeem the bonds at nominal value come mid-August. Although the
bonds currently offer an attractive annual coupon rate of 8%, bondholders are likely to
exercise the option given that i) the bonds are currently out of the money, ii) better-
quality commercial paper is available and iii) uncertainty envelops the bond market in
general. Based on BLand’s RM588m cash balance as at end-Jan 09, it probably has to
raise funds to allow for the possibility of full redemption.
What are BLand’s options? One way is for BLand to refinance the bonds via
additional borrowings but this may be difficult currently given the tight credit market.
BLand could pledge its B-Toto shares to facilitate the borrowings but this raises
unnecessary shareholding-related risks. Alternatively, BLand could consider asset
disposals but this seems impractical as asset valuations are currently depressed.
How can B-Toto help? Given its cash-generative NFO business and manageable net
gearing of less than 0.2x as at end-Jan 09, the market is speculating that B-Toto could
lend a helping hand by gearing up to declare bumper and/or special dividends. Such a
move would not be a huge surprise as B-Toto has adopted dividend payouts in excess
of 100% in the past, probably to pave the way for BLand to settle its inter-company
loans.
Distributing all of distributable reserves ... Based on B-Toto’s distributable reserves
of RM453m as at end-Jan 09, it could announce a gross DPS of up to 45 sen on top of
its normal DPS declarations. This could add 9.4% gross yield to its already sustainable
yield of 6-8%. Based on B-Land’s 51% stake in B-Toto, this could channel up an
additional RM230m to BLand, equivalent to 26% of the RM880m face value of BLand’s
exchangeable bonds. However, such an exercise, in isolation, could slash B-Toto’s
shareholders’ funds by 85-95% and raise FY09-10 net gearing to a glaringly high level
of 7-34x. Also, higher interest expense arising from new borrowings could compromise
the sustainability of B-Toto’s future dividends.
... or easier to distribute share dividends? Alternatively, B-Toto could dish out share
dividends. As at end-Jan 09, it had accumulated some 95m treasury shares at an
average price of RM4.27. Although it has no specific plans for these treasury shares at
this juncture, a potential 1-for-14 share dividend distribution could release an additional
33 sen gross DPS equivalent, based on B-Toto’s latest closing price of RM4.72/share.
This, together with B-Toto’s 30-36 sen gross cash DPS, could bring about a bumper 63
sen gross DPS. Unlike the first option, this share distribution exercise should not affect
B-Toto’s gearing and its future dividend payouts. Based on BLand’s 51% stake, this
option could inject another RM170m on top of BLand’s existing cash balance of
RM588m as at end-Jan 09.
What about capital repayment? Given the RM0.10 par value of its shares and its
small share capital base of RM135m, the likelihood of a capital repayment exercise by
B-Toto remains very slim. To recap, B-Toto has undertaken two capital repayment
exercises in the past.
Figure 7: Summary of B-Toto’s cash distribution options
Option 1 Option 2
Maximum cash DPS Share dividend distribution
Existing FY09F gross DPS (sen) 30.0 30.0
Bumper dividend (assuming maximum payout) (sen) 44.5 -
Treasury share distribution (shares) - 1-for-14
Cash equivalent (sen) - 33.0
Total FY09F gross DPS (sen) 74.5 63.0
Gross DPS yield (%) 15.8 13.3
Potential FY09-10 net gearing (x) 7-34 0.2-0.4
Source: Company, CIMB Research
[5]
6. Other cash needs at B-Toto level? In view of its minimal capex needs and unexciting
offers on the M&A front, we believe that B-Toto’s annual profits are likely to be split
between dividend payments and debt repayments. The latter is estimated at about
RM30m-35m per quarter.
Valuation and recommendation
Revisiting key assumptions … With i) 9MFY09 topline already accounting for 81% of
our full-year forecast and ii) 4QFY09 trends post CNY not deviating materially from
previous years’ off-peak norms, we are raising FY09’s revenue per draw growth
assumption by 2-4% pts. Our revised assumption implies a higher 10-11% topline
growth for FY09 vs. 6-7% previously and 9MFY09’s 17% yoy uptick. We have also
raised FY09’s prize payout assumption to 64.2% from 63.5% to align it with 9MFY09’s
average prize payout of about 64.4%.
… adjusting FY10-11 earnings by 4-5%. These offsetting adjustments effectively keep
our FY09 core net profit projection intact at RM405m. But for FY10-11, we are lowering
our earnings projections by 4-5% as higher prize payout assumptions of about 63%
(62% previously) more than offset the 2-3% uptick in revenue per draw growth following
FY09’s higher base. Post earnings adjustments, our FY10-11 DPS projections are
lowered by 3-5%, still based on an unchanged 80% payout ratio. We have not assumed
any special and/or bumper DPS payouts in our earnings model.
Reiterate OUTPERFORM. Our DPS downgrades trim our end-CY09 target price from
RM5.95 to RM5.65, based on an unchanged 5% discount to its DDM value. We
continue to like B-Toto for its steady, low-risk topline growth, superior ROEs and
sustainable dividend yields. Being a low-beta stock, B-Toto may fall out of favour in a
rising market. However, we flag the likelihood of bumper dividends over the short term.
This is a potential share price catalyst that underpins our OUTPERFORM
recommendation, along with the normalisation of luck factor and market share gains.
[6]
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(i) As of 27 April 2009, CIMB has a proprietary position in the following securities in this report:
(a) Berjaya Sports Toto, Berjaya Sports Toto Warrant.
(ii) As of 28 April 2009, the analyst, Soh May Yee who prepared this report, has an interest in the securities in the following company or companies covered or
recommended in this report:
(a) -.
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our obligations owed to such recipient therein are unaffected. CIMB has no obligation to update its opinion or the information in this research report.
This publication is strictly confidential and is for private circulation only to clients of CIMB. This publication is being supplied to you strictly on the basis that it will remain
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or indirectly, to any other person in whole or in part, for any purpose without the prior written consent of CIMB.
[8]
9. New Zealand: In New Zealand, this report is for distribution only to persons whose principal business is the investment of money or who, in the course of, and for the
purposes of their business, habitually invest money pursuant to Section 3(2)(a)(ii) of the Securities Act 1978.
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RECOMMENDATION FRAMEWORK #1*
STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS
OUTPERFORM: The stock's total return is expected to exceed a relevant OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is
benchmark's total return by 5% or more over the next 12 months. expected to outperform the relevant primary market index over the next 12
months.
NEUTRAL: The stock's total return is expected to be within +/-5% of a relevant NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is
benchmark's total return. expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next
12 months.
UNDERPERFORM: The stock's total return is expected to be below a relevant UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe,
benchmark's total return by 5% or more over the next 12 months. is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index over the next 12
months.
TRADING BUY: The stock's total return is expected to exceed a relevant TRADING BUY: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is
benchmark's total return by 5% or more over the next 3 months. expected to outperform the relevant primary market index over the next 3
months.
TRADING SELL: The stock's total return is expected to be below a relevant TRADING SELL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe,
benchmark's total return by 5% or more over the next 3 months. is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index over the next 3
months.
* This framework only applies to stocks listed on the Singapore Stock Exchange, Bursa Malaysia, Stock Exchange of Thailand and Jakarta Stock Exchange. Occasionally, it is permitted for the total expected returns to be
temporarily outside the prescribed ranges due to extreme market volatility or other justifiable company or industry-specific reasons.
CIMB-GK Research Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No. 198701620M)
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10. RECOMMENDATION FRAMEWORK #2 **
STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS
OUTPERFORM: Expected positive total returns of 15% or more over the next OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe,
12 months. has a high number of stocks that are expected to have total returns of +15% or
better over the next 12 months.
NEUTRAL: Expected total returns of between -15% and +15% over the next NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, has
12 months. either (i) an equal number of stocks that are expected to have total returns of
+15% (or better) or -15% (or worse), or (ii) stocks that are predominantly
expected to have total returns that will range from +15% to -15%; both over the
next 12 months.
UNDERPERFORM: Expected negative total returns of 15% or more over the UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe,
next 12 months. has a high number of stocks that are expected to have total returns of -15% or
worse over the next 12 months.
TRADING BUY: Expected positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 3 TRADING BUY: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe,
months. has a high number of stocks that are expected to have total returns of +15% or
better over the next 3 months.
TRADING SELL: Expected negative total returns of 15% or more over the next TRADING SELL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe,
3 months. has a high number of stocks that are expected to have total returns of -15% or
worse over the next 3 months.
** This framework only applies to stocks listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and China listings on the Singapore Stock Exchange. Occasionally, it is permitted for the total expected returns to be temporarily outside the
prescribed ranges due to extreme market volatility or other justifiable company or industry-specific reasons.
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