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Similar to The importance of renewable energy resources in the long-term energy strategy of The Netherlands in general and the Energy Valley Region in Particular - Prof. Dr. André P.C. Faaij
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The importance of renewable energy resources in the long-term energy strategy of The Netherlands in general and the Energy Valley Region in Particular - Prof. Dr. André P.C. Faaij
- 1. Biogas in the biobased economy Conference of the European Biogas Associa4on, Egmond aan Zee -‐ Netherlands, October 1st 2014. Prof. Dr. André P.C. Faaij Academic Director -‐ Energy Academy Europe Dis4nguished Professor Energy System Analysis – University of Groningen
- 2. What is the Energy Academy Europe? • Center of excellence in energy educa4on/research/innova4on • Focus on transi4on to sustainable, reliable and affordable energy. – Renewables (wind, solar etc.) – Energy efficiency (including energy water and food) – Gas (including biogas, green gas) – C0₂ reduc4on – Smart grids • Open to all interested students, organiza4ons and businesses • Public Top Research Applied research/ innova4on Educa4on (focus on interdisciplinary) / Private ini4a4ve of: Hanze University of Applied Sciences, University of Groningen, GasTerra , Energy Valley and EBN
- 3. Stakeholders/IAB, Fall 2014 2015 2022 !! Interlinkages & matching stakeholder dialogue; demand & supply With respect to research, educa?on, innova?on… !!
- 4. Partners
- 5. EnTranCe Building 2000 m2 realized per sept/oct 2014
- 6. Building Energy Academy 10.000 m2, completed end of 2015
- 7. Become a partner! • > 400 energy companies • > 30.000 employees in the energy sector • Increase in energy students from 300 to 3.000 yearly in 10 years 4me Contact us: • Academic Director André Faaij (as per 1-‐4-‐2014) • Managing Director Bert Wiersema • bert.wiersema@energyacademy.org; andre.faaij@energyacademy.org • www.energyacademy.org
- 8. Energy system transforma?on… [GEA/van Vuuren et al CoSust, 2012]
- 9. Advancing markets…pushed by technological progress and pulled by high oil prices • Advanced biofuels…(strong economic perspec4ve) • Biorefining, biochemicals, biomaterials… • Avia4on and shipping… • Likely to compete for the same resources… • Should meet the same sustainability criteria…(but that is not the case today!) • Compe44on or synergy?
- 10. Biobased economy in the Netherlands?
- 11. Netherlands; possible future energy supply (PJ per year) 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 Totaal hernieuwbaar Hernieuwbaar overig Zonnecollectoren, geothermie Wind, PV, Hydro Water Wind Zon PV Biomassa Totaal Tradi4oneel Kernenergie Gas Olie Kolen CO2-‐emissions rise Historic trend CO2-‐emissions decline
- 12. Scenarios (2010 – 2030) International oriented IntLowTech IntHighTech • Int. biomass • Int. biomass • co-firing • gasification • 1st generation fuels • 2nd generation fuels (import and production) • Bulk chemicals Low technological High technological development development • domestic waste • domestic waste • EU biomass • EU biomass • co-firing • gasification • waste incineration • 2nd generation fuels • digestion • Biorefineries (domestic) • 1st generation fuels NatLowTech NatHighTech National oriented [Hoefnagels et al., Energy Policy 2013]
- 13. Domes?c and imported biomass needs for bioenergy and biobased chemicals (NL) Domestic and imported biomass for bioenergy and biobased chemicals 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 2006 2010 2020 2030 2006 2010 2020 2030 2006 2010 2020 2030 2006 2010 2020 2030 2006 2010 2020 2030 NatLowTech IntLowTech NatHighTech IntHighTech IntHighTech AC Biomass feedstock (PJ) Ethanol (import from sugar cane) Starch/sugar crops Vegetable oil Imported woody biomass Agricultural residues Clean wood residues Oil and fat residues WOW MSW ~110 PJ from residues in the LowTech scenarios ~250 PJ from residues in the HighTech scenarios [Hoefnagels et al., Energy Policy 2013]
- 14. Bioenergy in the scenarios in 2030 (+) (NL) Fossil energy avoided 833 PJ 747 PJ 113 PJ 220 PJ 203 PJ 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 IntLowTech NatHighTech NatLowTech IntHighTech IntHighTech AC Avoided primary energy (PJ) Electricity Biodiesel Biogasoline Chemicals Biobased production 171 PJ 680 PJ 673 PJ 74 PJ 164 PJ 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 IntLowTech NatHighTech NatLowTech IntHighTech IntHighTech AC Biobased production (PJ) Electricity Biodiesel Biogasoline Chemicals [Hoefnagels et al., Energy Policy 2013]
- 15. Sensi?vity to fossil fuel prices NatLowTech IntHighTech IntHighTech AC Oil price: 75 US$/bbl NatLowTech IntHighTech IntHighTech AC Oil price: 90 US$/bbl Additional cost relative to fossil production 119 M€ 162 M€ 1067 M€ 121 M€ -276 M€ 1600 1100 600 100 -400 -900 IntLowTech NatHighTech Additional expenditures (M€/a) Electricity Biodiesel Biogasoline Chemicals Additional cost relative to fossil production -1272 M€ -161 M€ 69 M€ 15 M€ -626 M€ 1600 1100 600 100 -400 -900 IntLowTech NatHighTech Additional expenditures (M€/a) Electricity Biodiesel Biogasoline Chemicals [Hoefnagels et al., Energy Policy 2013]
- 17. Global biodiesel & fuel ethanol production 2000-2009 EU Biodiesel USA Brazil Argentina Others Ethanol (Source: Lamers et al., RSER, 15 (2011) 2655– 2676)
- 18. Global (fuel) ethanol trade streams of minimum 1 PJ in 2011. (Source: Lamers et al., in Faaij & Junginger (eds), forthcoming in 2013)
- 19. Global biodiesel trade streams of minimum 1 PJ in 2011. (Source: Lamers et al., in Faaij & Junginger (eds), forthcoming in 2013)
- 20. Global wood pellet production 2000 - 2010 (Source: Lamers et al. RSER, 16(2012) 3176-3199
- 21. Global wood pellet trade 2010 Source: Lamers et al., RSER, 16(2012) 3176-3199
- 22. Simulated Biomass trade flows 2020 Low Import scenario High Import scenario RU FI SE DK UK BY FR UA ES NO TR PL DE IT RO IE LT BG AT LV HU CZ PT RS ME KS GR EE SK BA HR NL CH BE MD AL SI MK CY LU MT MC RU FI SE DK UK BY FR UA ES NO TR PL DE IT RO IE LT BG AT LV HU CZ PT RS ME KS GR EE SK BA HR NL CH BE MD AL SI MK CY LU MT MC Import non-EU Import non-EU Import non-EU Import non-EU Import non-EU Import non-EU Year: 20121023456789 2009 2015 2020 (pellets) Low Import High Import Low Import High Import Total trade (Mtoe) 1.6 5.4 6.2 12.6 17.4 Total trade (Mt wood pellet eq.)* 3.8 12 14 29 40 Of which Intra-EU 55% 38% 32% 52% 32% Of which Inter-EU 45% 62% 68% 48% 68% *) Mt eq. = million metric tonne pellet equivalent (18 MJ/kg) [Hoefnagels et al, applied energy , 2014]
- 23. Results -‐ spa4al produc4on poten4al Arable land available for dedicated bio-‐energy crops divided by the total land Countries Low potential Moderate potential High potential < 6,5% NL, BE, LU, AT, CH, NO, SE and FI Potential 6,5% - 17% FR, ES, PT, GE, UK, DK, IE, IT and GR > 17% PL, LT, LV, HU, SL, SK, CZ, EST, RO, BU and UKR [Wit & Faaij, Biomass & Bioenergy, 2010]
- 24. Results -‐ spa4al cost distribu4on Produc4on cost (€ GJ-‐1) for Grassy crops Potential Countries PL, PT, CZ, LT, LV, UK, RO, BU, HU, SL, SK, EST, UKR FR, ES, GE, IT, SE, FI, NO, IE NL, BE, LU, UK, GR, DK, CH, AT Low < 2,00 Cost Moderate Cost 2,00 – 3,20 High > 3,20 Cost [Wit & Faaij, Biomass & Bioenergy, 2010]
- 25. Summary baseline 2030 1st generation Grass 1 EJ (ExaJoule) = 24 Mtoe 24 21 18 15 12 9 6 3 0 Starch 0 6 12 18 Supply (EJ/year) Production Costs (€/GJ) Oil Sugar Wood Grass Wood 2nd generation Crop specific supply curves • Feedstock poten4als Produced on 65 Mha arable and 24 Mha on pastures (grass and wood) • Significant difference between ‘1st and 2nd genera4on crops’ • Supply poten4als high compared to demand 2010 (0,78 EJ/yr) and 2020 (1,48 EJ/yr) [Wit & Faaij, Biomass & Bioenergy, 2010]
- 26. Economic and Environmental viability of Advanced Biomass Conversion Pathways
- 27. Range of LCOE for selected commercially available RE technologies compared to recent non-‐RE costs. [IPCC-‐SRREN, 2011]
- 28. Cost ranges various current bioenergy systems. [IPCC-‐SRREN, 2011]
- 29. Projected produc?on costs es?mated for selected developing technologies [IPCC-‐SRREN, 2011]
- 30. Bio-‐SNG
- 31. General outline of possible bioSNG produc4on systems via gasifica4on [Ba?dzirai et al., Applied Energy, forthcoming]
- 32. Schema4c of the Milena gasifica4on process
- 33. BioSNG produc4on process based on Milena system
- 34. Rela4ve primary energy loss of bioSNG produc4on across selected scenarios 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Rela?ve primary energy loss (%) Scenario Compression Regasifica4on Liquefac4on Conversion Pipeline Ship Rail Pelle4sing Milling Torrefac4on Drying Chipping Truck Feedstock [Ba?dzirai et al., Applied Energy, forthcoming]
- 35. BioSNG produc?on costs compared to natural gas prices, oil and biodiesel [Ba?dzirai et al., Applied Energy, forthcoming]
- 36. Impact of scaling the Milena and Güssing technologies 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Milena Güssing 0 200 400 600 800 1000 Specific investment costs ($/MWth, in) Fuel capacity (MWth, in) [Ba?dzirai et al., Applied Energy, forthcoming]
- 37. BioSNG delivered costs at different produc?on scales for selected chains The produc4on capacity (in MWth, in) is given in brackets for each supply chain [Ba?dzirai et al., Applied Energy, forthcoming]
- 38. Scale effects on bioSNG produc?on costs for selected supply chains 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Braz-‐coast Braz-‐pipeline NL-‐TOPs-‐Braz NL-‐WPs-‐Braz Ukrn-‐pipeline Biodiesel low Biodiesel high Oil low Oil high 10 50 100 250 500 1000 Cost of delivered SNG ($/GJCNG) SNG produc?on capacity (MWth,in) [Ba?dzirai et al., Applied Energy, forthcoming]
- 39. Final remarks • Biomass cri4cal pillar of future world’s energy supply when mi4ga4on of GHG-‐emissions is to be addressed. • Equally important for NL; heavily reliant on imports (European poten4als considerable). • Biogas amongst the poten4al winners, but future biomass deployment depends on many factors. • Bio-‐SNG has very good perspec4ves, but competes with advanced biofuels and biomaterials.
- 40. Selected references. • B. Ba4dzirai, G.S. Schotman, M.W. van der Spek, M.J. Junginger, A.P.C. Faaij, Economic and Energe-c Op-misa-on of BioSNG Produc-on and Supply Chains (accepted; Applied Energy, 2014). • R Hoefnagels, G Resch, M Junginger, A Faaij, Interna-onal and domes-c uses of solid biofuels under different renewable energy support scenarios in the European Union, Applied Energy, Volume 131, October 2014, Pp. 139-‐157 • Marc de Wit, André Faaij, European biomass resource poten-al and costs, Biomass and Bioenergy, Volume 34, Issue 2, February 2010, Pages 188-‐202 • Ric Hoefnagels, Mar4n Banse, Veronika Dornburg, Andre Faaij, Macro-‐economic impact of large-‐scale deployment of biomass resources for energy and materials on a na-onal level—A combined approach for the Netherlands, Energy Policy,Volume 59, August 2013, Pages 727-‐744 • H. Chum, A. Faaij, et al., (CLA’s), Chapter 2, Bioenergy. In: Oymar Edenhofer, Ramón Pichs Madruga, Youba Sokona et al. (eds.) The IPCC Special Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mi4ga4on, Cambridge University Press, New York, ISBN 978-‐1-‐107-‐60710-‐12011. Pp. 209-‐332
- 41. Thanks for your amen?on For more informa?on, see: -‐ Sciencedirect/Scopus (scien?fic) -‐ Google scholar cita?ons (personal) -‐ hmp://srren.ipcc-‐wg3.de/report (IPCC) A.P.C.Faaij@rug.nl ; Andre.Faaij@energyacademy.org