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Agriculture and Forest Sector
Long-Term Outlook from
GLOBIOM
Ulrich Kleinwechter
Ecosystems Services & Management Programm...
Outline
1. Introduction
2. Model overview
3. Foresight activities with GLOBIOM
4. Results: Foresight for socio-economic an...
Introduction
3
IIASA
 Founded in 1972 to use scientific
cooperation to build bridges across the
Cold War divide
 Non-governmental insti...
GLOBIOM
Model overview
5
GLOBIOM
 Global scale agriculture and forest sector model based on detailed
spatial resolution (>200k cells)
 Partial eq...
7
18 crops (FAO + SPAM)
Wheat, Rice, Maize, Soybean,
Barley, Sorghum, Millet,
Cotton, Dry beans, Rapeseed,
Groundnut, Suga...
Foresight activities
with GLOBIOM
8
Global and regional foresight activities
LEDPathways
Regional
scenarios
Regional food security under conditions of global
...
Socio-economic drivers: SSPs
10
Combined socio-economic and climatic drivers
11
Results:
Foresight for socio-economic and climatic
drivers
12
SSP2: Global and regional trends in
agricultural markets
 Demand
13
14
 Supply
 Prices
15
Socio-economic development:
Effects on agricultural markets
16
Socio-economic development:
Forest markets
17
Climate change mitigation:
Market effects
18
19
Climate change mitigation:
Production effects
20
Impacts of climate change:
Food availability in SSA [kcal/cap/day]
Summary and conclusion
21
22
 Generally positive outlook for food availability by 2050 under SSP 2
 Albeit at cost of LUC and high emissions, if u...
23
 GLOBIOM provides integration of agriculture and forest
sectors in a comprehensive framework
 Links with biophysical ...
Thank you
for your attention!
kleinwec@iiasa.ac.at
www.globiom.org
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Agriculture and Forest Sector Long-Term Outlook from GLOBIOM

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GLOBIOM is a global scale agriculture and forest sector model based on detailed spatial resolution that allows foresight for socio-economic and climatic drivers.

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Agriculture and Forest Sector Long-Term Outlook from GLOBIOM

  1. 1. Agriculture and Forest Sector Long-Term Outlook from GLOBIOM Ulrich Kleinwechter Ecosystems Services & Management Programme International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria in collaboration with the IIASA Environmental Resources and Development (ERD) Group Strategic Foresight Conference IFPRI, Washington D.C., 7 November 2014
  2. 2. Outline 1. Introduction 2. Model overview 3. Foresight activities with GLOBIOM 4. Results: Foresight for socio-economic and climatic drivers 5. Summary and conclusion 2
  3. 3. Introduction 3
  4. 4. IIASA  Founded in 1972 to use scientific cooperation to build bridges across the Cold War divide  Non-governmental institute: 22 National Member Organizations representing Africa, Asia, Europe, and the Americas  International interdisciplinary staff of ~150 Researchers  Construction and exploration of models of complex socio-economic and environmental systems to answer global challenges Laxenburg, (close toVienna), Austria 4
  5. 5. GLOBIOM Model overview 5
  6. 6. GLOBIOM  Global scale agriculture and forest sector model based on detailed spatial resolution (>200k cells)  Partial equilibrium  Agricultural, wood and bioenergy markets  30 world regions  Bilateral trade  Bottom-up approach  Explicit description of production technologies a la Leontief  Technologies specified by production system and grid cell  Main data source  FAOSTAT, complemented with bottom-up sectoral models for production parameters  Base year: 2000  Time step: 10 years, time horizon: 2030/2050 but also 2100 6
  7. 7. 7 18 crops (FAO + SPAM) Wheat, Rice, Maize, Soybean, Barley, Sorghum, Millet, Cotton, Dry beans, Rapeseed, Groundnut, Sugarcane, Potatoes, Cassava, Sunflower, Chickpeas, Palm Fruit, Sweet potatoes 3 different systems 7 animals (FAO + Gridded livestock) Cattle & Buffalo Sheep & Goat Pig Poultry 8 different systems Downscaled FAO FRA at grid level Area Carbon stock Age Tree size Species Rotation time Thinning Landuse Land suitable for Poplar Pillow Eucalyptus Productivity from literature Cropland Grassland Managed forest Global Land Cover 2000 Short rotation plantations Other natural land Natural forest Landcover ECONOMIC MARKET + Spatial equilibrium trade  PRICES Markets Food Fibers Energy Demand Industry Population, GDP, preferences BIOENERGY Processing  MJ biofuel  MJ bioelectric  Coproducts G4M Global Forest model  Harvestable wood  Harvesting costs EPIC Rain, Snow, Chemicals Subsurface Flow Surface Flow Below Root Zone Evaporation and Transpiration RUMINANT Digestibility model  Feed intake  Animal production  GHG emissions Production
  8. 8. Foresight activities with GLOBIOM 8
  9. 9. Global and regional foresight activities LEDPathways Regional scenarios Regional food security under conditions of global environmental and socio-economic change- Livestock sector futures Low emissions agricultural development pathways and priorities for mitigation in agriculture Global and EU food security OECD Long term scenarios Model intercomparisons IPCC scenario analysis 9
  10. 10. Socio-economic drivers: SSPs 10
  11. 11. Combined socio-economic and climatic drivers 11
  12. 12. Results: Foresight for socio-economic and climatic drivers 12
  13. 13. SSP2: Global and regional trends in agricultural markets  Demand 13
  14. 14. 14  Supply
  15. 15.  Prices 15
  16. 16. Socio-economic development: Effects on agricultural markets 16
  17. 17. Socio-economic development: Forest markets 17
  18. 18. Climate change mitigation: Market effects 18
  19. 19. 19 Climate change mitigation: Production effects
  20. 20. 20 Impacts of climate change: Food availability in SSA [kcal/cap/day]
  21. 21. Summary and conclusion 21
  22. 22. 22  Generally positive outlook for food availability by 2050 under SSP 2  Albeit at cost of LUC and high emissions, if unabated  Contingency of agricultural development on SSP  Market effects of climate change mitigation  Price increases & reductions in calorie availability  Production effects of climate change mitigation  Changes in production levels, production system transitions, spatial reallocation  Effects of socio-economic development dominate climate change impacts
  23. 23. 23  GLOBIOM provides integration of agriculture and forest sectors in a comprehensive framework  Links with biophysical models (EPIC, RUMINANT, G4M)  Extensions: GHG emissions accounting, input use (fertilizer, water), food security  Possibility for regional zooming-in  E.g. Congo Basin, Brazil  Disaggregation of production with high spatial resolution and along production systems => Potential for applications to technology assessment and priority setting
  24. 24. Thank you for your attention! kleinwec@iiasa.ac.at www.globiom.org

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