17 471 19_nuclear_weapons
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This document discusses several key determinants and influences on American national security policy in the coming decade, including threats from weapons of mass destruction like nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons and their delivery systems. It also examines the history of nuclear proliferation, efforts to cope with proliferation, and options for U.S. policy regarding threats like extended nuclear deterrence, weapons of mass destruction, and other measures.
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17 471 19_nuclear_weapons
- 1. 17.471 American National Security Policy17.471 American National Security Policy 11 American National SecurityAmerican National Security In the Coming DecadeIn the Coming Decade
- 2. 17.471 American National Security Policy17.471 American National Security Policy 22 Determinants & InfluencesDeterminants & Influences National Interests?National Interests? ThreatsThreats Domestic PoliticsDomestic Politics Personalities/Personalities/ Bureaucratic InterestsBureaucratic Interests Partisan PoliticsPartisan Politics Interest groupsInterest groups Public OpinionPublic Opinion HistoryHistory TechnologyTechnology EconomyEconomy OrganizationalOrganizational InterestsInterests International PoliticsInternational Politics
- 3. 17.471 American National Security Policy17.471 American National Security Policy 33 Prominent ThreatsProminent Threats Challenges to US Survival?Challenges to US Survival? Challenges to US Domestic Security?Challenges to US Domestic Security? Challenges to US Prosperity?Challenges to US Prosperity? Economic prosperityEconomic prosperity Social prosperitySocial prosperity Political prosperityPolitical prosperity Challenges to US Hegemony?Challenges to US Hegemony?
- 4. 17.471 American National Security Policy17.471 American National Security Policy 44 Weapons of MassWeapons of Mass DestructionDestruction
- 5. 17.471 American National Security Policy17.471 American National Security Policy 55 WMDWMD Nuclear & radiologicalNuclear & radiological ChemicalChemical BiologicalBiological Delivery SystemsDelivery Systems MissilesMissiles BallisticBallistic cruisecruise longlong--range aircraftrange aircraft
- 6. 17.471 American National Security Policy17.471 American National Security Policy 66 Nuclear ProliferationNuclear Proliferation 19451945--19551955 US, USSR, UKUS, USSR, UK 19561956--19651965 France, ChinaFrance, China Canada, Sweden, Germany, Belgium, Netherlands, Japan, Italy,Canada, Sweden, Germany, Belgium, Netherlands, Japan, Italy, Czechoslovakia, Poland, Australia, HungaryCzechoslovakia, Poland, Australia, Hungary 19661966--19751975 India, (Israel)India, (Israel) Rumania, Norway, Switzerland, Yugoslavia, Argentina, Brazil, SpaRumania, Norway, Switzerland, Yugoslavia, Argentina, Brazil, Spain,in, Egypt, Taiwan, Turkey, South KoreaEgypt, Taiwan, Turkey, South Korea 19761976--19851985 (South Africa)(South Africa) Bulgaria, Greece, AustriaBulgaria, Greece, Austria 19861986--20052005 PakistanPakistan Iraq, Iran, N. KoreaIraq, Iran, N. Korea
- 7. 17.471 American National Security Policy17.471 American National Security Policy 77 Nuclear Proliferation as a ThreatNuclear Proliferation as a Threat Nuclear Weapons for Regional PowersNuclear Weapons for Regional Powers Limits US intervention optionsLimits US intervention options Nuclear Weapons in conflict dyadsNuclear Weapons in conflict dyads Likelihood of nuclear useLikelihood of nuclear use VulnerabilityVulnerability CC33 Likelihood of use against US “friends” & US territoryLikelihood of use against US “friends” & US territory Political & economic instability affects marketsPolitical & economic instability affects markets Nuclear Weapons in weak statesNuclear Weapons in weak states “Loose Nukes”“Loose Nukes” “Virtual” Nuclear Arsenals“Virtual” Nuclear Arsenals
- 8. 17.471 American National Security Policy17.471 American National Security Policy 88 Coping with Nuclear ProliferationCoping with Nuclear Proliferation Baruch Plan (1946)Baruch Plan (1946) Atoms for Peace (1955)Atoms for Peace (1955) NonNon--Proliferation Treaty (1968)Proliferation Treaty (1968) BiBi--lateral actionslateral actions S. Korea & Taiwan (1970s & 1980s)S. Korea & Taiwan (1970s & 1980s) Pakistan (1980s)Pakistan (1980s) N. Korea (1993N. Korea (1993--1994)1994) Former Soviet Union (1992Former Soviet Union (1992--present)present)
- 9. 17.471 American National Security Policy17.471 American National Security Policy 99 Chemical & Biological WeaponsChemical & Biological Weapons Biological Weapons Treaty (1972)Biological Weapons Treaty (1972)
- 10. 17.471 American National Security Policy17.471 American National Security Policy 1010 U.S. OptionsU.S. Options
- 11. 17.471 American National Security Policy17.471 American National Security Policy 1111 Nuclear WeaponsNuclear Weapons How can nuclear weapons enhance U.S. nationalHow can nuclear weapons enhance U.S. national security in the years ahead?security in the years ahead? Are there drawbacks?Are there drawbacks? Historical PerspectiveHistorical Perspective What roles have nuclear weapons played in AmericanWhat roles have nuclear weapons played in American National Security Policy?National Security Policy? Who were the advocates for nuclear weapons?Who were the advocates for nuclear weapons? What did they advocate?What did they advocate? Were there opponents?Were there opponents? What were their arguments?What were their arguments?
- 12. 17.471 American National Security Policy17.471 American National Security Policy 1212 Extended DeterrenceExtended Deterrence How do we convince potential adversariesHow do we convince potential adversaries that they cannot attain their goals bythat they cannot attain their goals by threatening US interests?threatening US interests? CapabilityCapability CredibilityCredibility CommunicationCommunication Punishment vs. DenialPunishment vs. Denial Conventional Arms vs. Nuclear ArmsConventional Arms vs. Nuclear Arms Threat vs. UseThreat vs. Use
- 13. 17.471 American National Security Policy17.471 American National Security Policy 1313 Other MeasuresOther Measures New TechnologiesNew Technologies Missile Defense (?)Missile Defense (?) Special ForcesSpecial Forces Intelligence Collection & AnalysisIntelligence Collection & Analysis ForeignForeign domesticdomestic