This document discusses the nature and trends of terrorism as a threat to American national security. It defines terrorism as politically motivated violence against noncombatant targets intended to influence an audience. More recent terrorism is described as potentially more extreme due to a religious rather than political motivation, with terrorists concerned less with legitimacy and restraint. The document also analyzes terrorism statistics and identifies historical terrorist incidents, groups, and state sponsors of terrorism that threaten US interests.

1. 17.471.02 American National Security17.471.02 American National Security
PolicyPolicy 11
TerrorismTerrorism
Threats & TrendsThreats & Trends

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PolicyPolicy 22
Terrorism is a Political ActTerrorism is a Political Act
A weapon ofA weapon of
psychological warfarepsychological warfare
for political purposesfor political purposes
“…“…premeditated, politically motivated violencepremeditated, politically motivated violence
perpetrated against noncombatant targets byperpetrated against noncombatant targets by
subnationalsubnational or clandestine agents, usually intended toor clandestine agents, usually intended to
influence an audience.”influence an audience.”
Title 22 of USC, Sec. 2656f(d)Title 22 of USC, Sec. 2656f(d)

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PolicyPolicy 33
Terrorism is a Political ActTerrorism is a Political Act
to create extreme fear & anxiety in ato create extreme fear & anxiety in a
target group larger than the immediatetarget group larger than the immediate
victimsvictims
–– with the purpose of coercing the larger targetwith the purpose of coercing the larger target
group into meeting some political demandgroup into meeting some political demand
–– UseUse "extra"extra--normalnormal" violence in a" violence in a symbolicsymbolic actact
–– specifcspecifc victimsvictims have no particular significancehave no particular significance
to terroristto terrorist

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PolicyPolicy 44
Terrorism is NotTerrorism is Not IrrationalIrrational
Terrorism has its ownTerrorism has its own
logic that linkslogic that links
–– GoalsGoals
–– ObjectivesObjectives
–– StrategyStrategy

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PolicyPolicy 55
Political Goals of TerrorismPolitical Goals of Terrorism
Political goals:Political goals:
–– To create a sense of vulnerability in larger targetTo create a sense of vulnerability in larger target
populationpopulation
–– To publicize terrorists’ plight; gain recognitionTo publicize terrorists’ plight; gain recognition
–– To embolden their allies and supporters; gain supportTo embolden their allies and supporters; gain support
provoke adversary into an inappropriate violent reactionprovoke adversary into an inappropriate violent reaction
demonstrate the vulnerability & weakness of their adversarydemonstrate the vulnerability & weakness of their adversary
–– To push adversary into selfTo push adversary into self--constraining actsconstraining acts
martial lawmartial law
–– To force policy change by adversary via publicTo force policy change by adversary via public
pressurepressure
turn public wrath against authorities (why are weturn public wrath against authorities (why are we
vulnerable?)vulnerable?)

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Terrorism in Historical PerspectiveTerrorism in Historical Perspective
Acts of terrorism recorded over 2000 yearsActs of terrorism recorded over 2000 years
ago in Middle Eastago in Middle East
Term “terrorism” coined during the FrenchTerm “terrorism” coined during the French
Revolution (1790s)Revolution (1790s)

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PolicyPolicy 77
““Traditional” TerrorismTraditional” Terrorism
Terrorists’ Concern for legitimacyTerrorists’ Concern for legitimacy
–– moderated strategy of violencemoderated strategy of violence
Violence calibrated in relation to politicalViolence calibrated in relation to political
objectivesobjectives
–– Leaves future possibility for negotiation & politicalLeaves future possibility for negotiation & political
settlementsettlement
PLO & Israel (until 2001)PLO & Israel (until 2001)
–– Excessive violence reduces legitimacy & claims forExcessive violence reduces legitimacy & claims for
supportsupport
Terrorists Always claimed credit for their actsTerrorists Always claimed credit for their acts

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PolicyPolicy 88
““Traditional” TerrorismTraditional” Terrorism
<10% Terrorists Caught or killed<10% Terrorists Caught or killed
–– <50% caught went to jail<50% caught went to jail
∴∴ low personal risklow personal risk
Origins & ActionsOrigins & Actions
NationNation--basedbased

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PolicyPolicy 99
TerrorismTerrorism
By the NumbersBy the Numbers

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PolicyPolicy 1010
Recent Terrorist Acts Against theRecent Terrorist Acts Against the
U.S.U.S.
19831983 U.S. Embassy &U.S. Embassy & MarineMarine
Barracks, LebanonBarracks, Lebanon
19891989 LockerbeLockerbe PA103 bombingPA103 bombing
19931993 World Trade CenterWorld Trade Center
[1996[1996 Oklahoma CityOklahoma City]]
19961996 KhobarKhobar Towers, Saudi ArabiaTowers, Saudi Arabia
19981998 East Africa Embassy BombingsEast Africa Embassy Bombings
20002000 USS Cole (Yemen)USS Cole (Yemen)
20012001 WTC & PentagonWTC & Pentagon

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PolicyPolicy 1111
International TerrorismInternational Terrorism
Incidents & CasualtiesIncidents & Casualties
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
1980-
1984
1985-
1989
1990-
1994
1995-
1999
2000-
2001
Incidents
Casualties
Injured in WTC attack
is not included

12. 17.471.02 American National Security17.471.02 American National Security
PolicyPolicy 1212
Terrorist IncidentsTerrorist Incidents
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
Anti-U.S. Non-U.S.

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PolicyPolicy 1313
Types of Facilities Attacked inTypes of Facilities Attacked in
International Terrorist IncidentsInternational Terrorist Incidents
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Business
Diplomat
Government
Military
Other

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PolicyPolicy 1414
Casualties in AntiCasualties in Anti--U.S. AttacksU.S. Attacks
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
Injured in WTC attack
is not included

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PolicyPolicy 1515
U.S. Citizen Casualties inU.S. Citizen Casualties in
International Terrorist AttacksInternational Terrorist Attacks
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Killed
Wounded

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PolicyPolicy 1616
Major AntiMajor Anti--U.S. Terrorist IncidentsU.S. Terrorist Incidents
U.S. CasualtiesU.S. Casualties
11011030530519831983U.S. Embassy & MarineU.S. Embassy & Marine
BarracksBarracks
3939171720002000USS ColeUSS Cole
33503350
1212
1919
66
189189
KilledKilled
??20012001WTC & PentagonWTC & Pentagon
11; 5000 (non11; 5000 (non--US)US)19981998Nairobi & DarNairobi & Dar eses SalaamSalaam
500 (U.S. & others)500 (U.S. & others)19961996KhobarKhobar
1000100019931993World Trade CenterWorld Trade Center
--19881988Pan Am 103Pan Am 103
WoundedWoundedYearYear

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PolicyPolicy 1717
AntiAnti--U.S. TerrorismU.S. Terrorism
Types of AttacksTypes of Attacks
0
50
100
150
200
250
Incidents
1990 1995 2000 2001
Other
Fire-Bombing
Bombing
Kidnap
Arson
Armed Attack

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PolicyPolicy 1818
AntiAnti--U.S. TerrorismU.S. Terrorism
Regional PatternsRegional Patterns
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Incidents
1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
Eurasia
Asia
Middle East
N. America
Africa
W. Europe
Latin America

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PolicyPolicy 1919
States Sponsoring Terrorism <2001States Sponsoring Terrorism <2001
IranIran
IraqIraq
SyriaSyria
SudanSudan
LibyaLibya
North KoreaNorth Korea
CubaCuba

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PolicyPolicy 2020
The “New” TerrorismThe “New” Terrorism

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PolicyPolicy 2121
““New” TerrorismNew” Terrorism
ReligionReligion--basedbased
–– Self legitimacySelf legitimacy no need for restraintno need for restraint
–– Sense of superioritySense of superiority no need for restraintno need for restraint
–– Personal risk unimportant; sacred missionPersonal risk unimportant; sacred mission
Greater ViolenceGreater Violence Greater "Good"Greater "Good"
–– death of victims reduces number of nondeath of victims reduces number of non--believersbelievers
–– 1995: 25% of terrorist attacks religion1995: 25% of terrorist attacks religion--basedbased
Accounting for 60% of all fatalities [Simon & BenjaminAccounting for 60% of all fatalities [Simon & Benjamin
(2000)](2000)]
Claiming credit for specific acts less importantClaiming credit for specific acts less important
–– political message is vulnerability & destruction ofpolitical message is vulnerability & destruction of
adversaryadversary

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PolicyPolicy 2222
““New” TerrorismNew” Terrorism
TransnationalTransnational
Better technology & means forBetter technology & means for
terror effectsterror effects
–– CommunicationsCommunications
–– financialfinancial
–– weaponry & explosivesweaponry & explosives
WMD?WMD?
Greater Vulnerability of ModernGreater Vulnerability of Modern
Urban Technological SocietiesUrban Technological Societies
–– fragile complex systemsfragile complex systems
–– communicationscommunications
–– Energy (electricity)Energy (electricity)
–– Transport (food, commodities,Transport (food, commodities,
people)people)
–– financial flowsfinancial flows