17 471 11_19601964

1. 17.471 American National Security17.471 American National Security
PolicyPolicy 11
19601960--19641964

2. 17.471 American National Security17.471 American National Security
PolicyPolicy 22
TermsTerms
Damage limitationDamage limitationFinite deterrenceFinite deterrence
DIADIAEMTEMTHotHot--LineLine
Special forcesSpecial forcesEscalation ladderEscalation ladderPPBSPPBS
LTBTLTBTSSBN/SLBMSSBN/SLBMStrategic triadStrategic triad
CostCost--effectivenesseffectivenessCounterCounter--insurgencyinsurgencyWars of nationalWars of national
liberationliberation
2 ½ war strategy2 ½ war strategySystems analysisSystems analysisPA&EPA&E
Assured destructionAssured destructionCounterCounter--value (city)value (city)
targetingtargeting
CounterCounter--force targetingforce targeting

3. 17.471 American National Security17.471 American National Security
PolicyPolicy 33
Key Shifts in National SecurityKey Shifts in National Security
PolicyPolicy
Flexible ResponseFlexible Response
–– Creating new options for defense & deterrenceCreating new options for defense & deterrence ––
symmetrysymmetry
–– general purpose force for escalation controlgeneral purpose force for escalation control
–– special forces for counterspecial forces for counter--insurgencyinsurgency
PPBS/Systems AnalysisPPBS/Systems Analysis
–– New approach to defense budgeting andNew approach to defense budgeting and
managementmanagement
–– Focus on missions not servicesFocus on missions not services
Strategic Triad & Assured DestructionStrategic Triad & Assured Destruction
–– systematic evolution of US SNFsystematic evolution of US SNF

4. 17.471 American National Security17.471 American National Security
PolicyPolicy 44
Flexible ResponseFlexible Response
Nuclear weapons do not solve all national security problemsNuclear weapons do not solve all national security problems
–– matching force to missionmatching force to mission
–– Rebuild conventional forcesRebuild conventional forces
Gen Max. Taylor = Special Military Advisor to Pres. KennedyGen Max. Taylor = Special Military Advisor to Pres. Kennedy
–– 19621962--1964: Chair JCS1964: Chair JCS
–– 19641964--1967;1967; AmbAmb. To S. Vietnam. To S. Vietnam
CounterCounter--insurgency & guerrilla warinsurgency & guerrilla war
–– jungle warfare schools in Panama and Ft. Bragg, NCjungle warfare schools in Panama and Ft. Bragg, NC
–– to train US and foreign forcesto train US and foreign forces
–– countercounter--insurgencyinsurgency
Conflict control (escalation control)Conflict control (escalation control)
–– signaling, bargaining with military forcessignaling, bargaining with military forces
–– matching means with goalsmatching means with goals
–– limited war (limited war (SchellingSchelling & game theory)& game theory)
2 ½ war strategy2 ½ war strategy
–– 1 Europe/Soviet Union1 Europe/Soviet Union
–– 1 PRC1 PRC
–– ½ elsewhere½ elsewhere

5. 17.471 American National Security17.471 American National Security
PolicyPolicy 55
Systems Analysis/PPBSSystems Analysis/PPBS
Goal:Goal: break old institutional & specialbreak old institutional & special
interest control over defenseinterest control over defense
allocations & resourcesallocations & resources
–– Increase civilian control over defenseIncrease civilian control over defense
spending & weapons acquisitionspending & weapons acquisition
Analyze military requirements andAnalyze military requirements and
costs simultaneouslycosts simultaneously
Explicit consideration of alternativeExplicit consideration of alternative
means of accomplishing a missionmeans of accomplishing a mission

6. 17.471 American National Security17.471 American National Security
PolicyPolicy 66
Strategic Doctrine IStrategic Doctrine I
Damage LimitationDamage Limitation
–– Counterforce TargetingCounterforce Targeting
Strategic Force TargetingStrategic Force Targeting
–– Active DefenseActive Defense
ABMABM
Air DefenseAir Defense
–– Passive DefensePassive Defense
Civil DefenseCivil Defense

7. 17.471 American National Security17.471 American National Security
PolicyPolicy 77
Counterforce MissionCounterforce Mission
Number of Warheads per TargetNumber of Warheads per Target
(95% probability of kill)(95% probability of kill)
YieldYield
CEPCEP
88232336361 mile1 mile
226699.5 miles.5 miles
111111.1 miles.1 miles
5Mt5Mt1Mt1Mt500kt500kt
* Assumes target hardness = 300 psi

8. 17.471 American National Security17.471 American National Security
PolicyPolicy 88
NikeNike--X ABMX ABM
Nuclear antiNuclear anti--missilesmissiles
ExoExo--atmosphere interceptatmosphere intercept
Atmospheric interceptAtmospheric intercept

9. 17.471 American National Security17.471 American National Security
PolicyPolicy 99
Strategic Doctrine IIStrategic Doctrine II
Assured DestructionAssured Destruction
–– Deterrence via secure second strike capabilityDeterrence via secure second strike capability
City Targeting (counter value targeting)City Targeting (counter value targeting)
Strategic triadStrategic triad
–– How Much is Enough?How Much is Enough?

10. 17.471 American National Security17.471 American National Security
PolicyPolicy 1010
Lethal Area for a 14kt Nuclear BlastLethal Area for a 14kt Nuclear Blast
HELP!

11. 17.471 American National Security17.471 American National Security
PolicyPolicy 1111
Lethal Area for a 200kt NuclearLethal Area for a 200kt Nuclear
BlastBlast
HELP!

12. 17.471 American National Security17.471 American National Security
PolicyPolicy 1212
Lethal Area for a 1mt Nuclear BlastLethal Area for a 1mt Nuclear Blast
HELP!

13. 17.471 American National Security17.471 American National Security
PolicyPolicy 1313
Lethal Effects Against SoftLethal Effects Against Soft
TargetsTargets
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
0 3
Yield (MT)
LethalArea(sqmi.)
area
EMT=EMT=66 y 2/3y 2/3
21 654

14. 17.471 American National Security17.471 American National Security
PolicyPolicy 1414
Assured DestructionAssured Destruction
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0 100 500 1000 1500
Equivalent Megatons
%ofTargetTypeDestroyed
Population
Industry

15. 17.471 American National Security17.471 American National Security
PolicyPolicy 1515
Triad SensitivityTriad Sensitivity
Probability AnalysisProbability Analysis

16. 17.471 American National Security17.471 American National Security
PolicyPolicy 1616
Strategic TriadStrategic Triad
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
Numberof
Weapons
A B
Scenario
SNDVs Needed to Kill 400 Targets
95% Confidence
SLBM
ICBM
Bomber
DC

17. 17.471 American National Security17.471 American National Security
PolicyPolicy 1717
Strategic BalanceStrategic Balance --19611961
<375<37518001800WeaponsWeapons
210210600600BombersBombers
150 SR150 SR--SLBMsSLBMs4848SLBMsSLBMs
55100100ICBMsICBMs
Soviet UnionSoviet UnionUSUS

18. 17.471 American National Security17.471 American National Security
PolicyPolicy 1818
US & Soviet Strategic ForcesUS & Soviet Strategic Forces
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,0001945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Year
NumberofWarheads
US
USSR

19. 17.471 American National Security17.471 American National Security
PolicyPolicy 1919
EventsEvents
French AFrench A--bombbomb (1960)(1960)
Congo CrisisCongo Crisis (1960)(1960)
U2 Shoot DownU2 Shoot Down (1960)(1960)
Bay of PigsBay of Pigs (4/1961)(4/1961)
VietnamVietnam (1961)(1961)
Berlin WallBerlin Wall (8/61)(8/61)
Cuban Missile CrisisCuban Missile Crisis
(1962(1962))
LTBTLTBT (1962)(1962)
Vietnam CoupVietnam Coup (1963)(1963)
HotHot--Line AgreementLine Agreement (1963)(1963)
Kennedy AssassinatedKennedy Assassinated
(1963)(1963)
China AChina A--bombbomb (1964)(1964)
VietnamVietnam (1964)(1964)

20. 17.471 American National Security17.471 American National Security
PolicyPolicy 2020
ENDEND

21. 17.471 American National Security17.471 American National Security
PolicyPolicy 2121
CubaCuba (1961(1961--1962)1962)
Bay of
Pigs
Back

22. 17.471 American National Security17.471 American National Security
PolicyPolicy 2222
B52 BomberB52 Bomber

23. 17.471 American National Security17.471 American National Security
PolicyPolicy 2323
Minuteman ICBMMinuteman ICBM

24. 17.471 American National Security17.471 American National Security
PolicyPolicy 2424
Polaris SSBN/SLBMPolaris SSBN/SLBM
Back

25. 17.471 American National Security17.471 American National Security
PolicyPolicy 2525
Strategic BalanceStrategic Balance --19701970
140/200140/200465/2200465/2200Bombers/WeaponBombers/Weapon
ss
1849184940744074WeaponsWeapons
20/289/289 (0)20/289/289 (0)41[656]/80041[656]/800
(160)(160)
SSBNs[SLBMsSSBNs[SLBMs]/]/
RVs(MIRVsRVs(MIRVs))
1420/1420 (0)1420/1420 (0)1054/1074 (30)1054/1074 (30)ICBMs/RVsICBMs/RVs
((MIRVsMIRVs))
Soviet UnionSoviet UnionUSUS