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The emerging information landscape
        The 8 realities of the “new normal”

   Lee Rainie, Director, Pew Internet Project
   2.26.12
   NFAIS - Philadelphia
   Email: Lrainie@pewinternet.org
   Twitter: @Lrainie


                                                PewInternet.org
The emerging information landscape The 8 realities of the “new normal”
we need a tshirt, "I survived the
       keynote disaster of 09"
  “Tweckle (twek’ul) vt. To
abuse a speakerdon'tTwitter
  it's awesome in the "I to want to
turn away from the accident because I
 followers ain the audience
     might see severed head" way
while he/she is speaking.”
too bad they took my utensils away w/
  my plate. I could have jammed the
     butter knife into my temple.
                                        3
New normal – circa 1999
            • Non-internet user, and
              users were …
            • Male
            • White
            • College educated
            • Dial-up at 32/kbits
            • Email
            • Directory and portal
              search
            • Chat rooms
            • Napster
            • TiVo
Digital Revolution 1
Internet (80%) and Broadband at home (66%)
                              Home broadband        Home dial-up
80%
70%
                                                                                  71%
60%
50%
                                                                                  66%
40%
30%
20%
10%
 0%
      June   April March March April March March March April   April   May    May August Jan
      2000   2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008           2009    2010   2011 2011 2012
Networked creators are everywhere
    (two-thirds of adults; three-quarters of teens)
•   66% of int. users are social networking site users
•   55% share photos
•   37% contribute rankings and ratings
•   33% create content tags
•   30% share personal creations
•   26% post comments on sites and blogs
•   15% have personal website
•   15% are content remixers
•   14% are bloggers
•   13% use Twitter
•    6% location services – 9% allow location
    awareness from social media – 23% maps etc.
56% of adults own laptops –
up from 30% in 2006
52% of adults own DVRs –
up from 3% in 2002
44% of adults own MP3 players –
up from 11% in 2005

42% of adults own game consoles

19% of adults own e-book readers - Kindle

19% of adults own tablet computer - iPad
Digital Revolution 2
   Mobile – 87%

                       327.6
    Total U.S.
    population:
    315.5
    million
4X% of adults/2X% of teens own “smartphones”
Apps – 50% of adults
                Sept 2009       May 2010        August 2011
100%



80%



60%
                                                                    50*
40%                   38*              38 43*                  43
                29*
          22%
20%



 0%
       Download apps to their Have preloaded apps on Total who have apps on
              phone                 their phone              phone
Digital Revolution 3
        Social networking – 50% of all adults
100%
               % of internet users                                          86%                 85%
80%                                                                                       83%
                                                                                          70% 71%
                                                            76%
                                               67%                          61%
60%
                                                                                                52%
                                                         48%
                         49%                                                 47%           51%
40%                                                                                             35%
                                        25%                                                33%
                                                            25%              26%
20%
         9%              8%                   11%           13%
          7%                                    7%
                         4%
 0%       6%
                        1%
       2005      2006      2007       2008           2009            2010          2011          2012
                              18-29   30-49      50-64         65+
Mean size of Facebook friends
                            network
350.0

300.0


250.0

200.0

150.0    318.5

100.0                 197.6
                                155.7
 50.0
                                               85.1          78.4
                                                                            42.0
  0.0
        Millennials    Gen X    Younger    Older Boomers     Silent     G.I. Generation
         (18-34)      (35-46)   Boomers       (57-65)      Generation         (75+)
                                 (47-56)                    (66-74)
New normal – circa 2012
            • Broadband
            • Mobile
            • Gender parity
            • Race and ethnicity parity
            • Less SES stratification
            • Less generational variance
            • Email
            • Search
            • Social networking and
              content creation
            • Video on demand
Eight realities of
the new normal
for information
   users and
   providers
New Reality 1) The world is full of networked
  individuals using networked information




   Image attribution: Flickrverse, Expanding Ever with New Galaxies Forming Cobalt123
        http://www.flickr.com/photos/cobalt/34248855/sizes/z/in/photostream/
New Reality 2) The 4 V’s of information
           “physics” change




Volume                     Velocity




Vibrance                    Valence /
                            Relevance
New Reality 3) People are shifting info platforms
New Reality 3) Corollary
                                     People use multiple platforms
                         News platforms Americans use on typical day
                    90
                           78
                    80                   73
                    70
                                                      61
% of adults (18+)




                    60                                        54
                                                                        50
                    50
                    40
                    30
                    20
                                                                                    17
                    10
                     0
                         Local TV       National     Online   Radio     Local      National
                                     network/cable                    newspaper   newspaper
New Reality 3) Corollary
People blend platforms – 59% use online and offline
                             # of news platforms Americans use typical day

                       70%

                       60%
                                                     46%               46%
   % of adults (18+)




                       50%

                       40%

                       30%

                       20%
                                    7%
                       10%

                       0%
                                 1 platform      2-3 platforms     4-6 platforms
The emerging information landscape The 8 realities of the “new normal”
New Reality 3) Corollary
People are not platform zealots
New Reality 3) People’s encounters with
         information change

 Portable               Participatory
New Reality 3) People’s encounters with
         information change
              Personal
New Reality 4) Influence is migrating from
    organizations to networks and new “experts”

Traditional experts with
  new platforms, esp. blogs


Amateur experts who are
 avid contributors –
 sometimes with tribes

New algorithmic authorities
New Reality 4) Corollary
Social networks are more influential and are
      differently segmented and layered




  Sentries
New Reality 4) Corollary
Social networks are more influential and are
      differently segmented and layered




Evaluators
New Reality 4) Corollary
Social networks are more influential and are
      differently segmented and layered




 Audience
New Reality 5) People’s attention zones have changed


• Continuous partial
  attention to media
  streams
• Immersion in deep
  dives
• Info-snacking in free
  moments
New reality 5) Corollary
People graze for info all day long
New Reality 6) Knowledge containers and displays are
      changing in the age of the “metaverse”
New Reality 7) New divides are emerging based
            on new tech literacies
New Reality 8) The future is uncertain




Your map is wrong!
New Reality 8) Corollaries


The architecture itself



Information policies



Social norms and attitudes
Therefore …
• … confront the existential question: What’s our
  franchise?
• … what’s our mobile play?
• … what’s our social play (natural alliances)?
• … prepare for disruptions …
  … from “social” actors who aren’t looking for money or
    who don’t like current business models or credentials
  … from new analysts in the world of “big data”
  … from tech companies that see themselves as
    publishers/creators/curators
Thank you!

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The emerging information landscape The 8 realities of the “new normal”

  • 1. The emerging information landscape The 8 realities of the “new normal” Lee Rainie, Director, Pew Internet Project 2.26.12 NFAIS - Philadelphia Email: Lrainie@pewinternet.org Twitter: @Lrainie PewInternet.org
  • 3. we need a tshirt, "I survived the keynote disaster of 09" “Tweckle (twek’ul) vt. To abuse a speakerdon'tTwitter it's awesome in the "I to want to turn away from the accident because I followers ain the audience might see severed head" way while he/she is speaking.” too bad they took my utensils away w/ my plate. I could have jammed the butter knife into my temple. 3
  • 4. New normal – circa 1999 • Non-internet user, and users were … • Male • White • College educated • Dial-up at 32/kbits • Email • Directory and portal search • Chat rooms • Napster • TiVo
  • 5. Digital Revolution 1 Internet (80%) and Broadband at home (66%) Home broadband Home dial-up 80% 70% 71% 60% 50% 66% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% June April March March April March March March April April May May August Jan 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2011 2012
  • 6. Networked creators are everywhere (two-thirds of adults; three-quarters of teens) • 66% of int. users are social networking site users • 55% share photos • 37% contribute rankings and ratings • 33% create content tags • 30% share personal creations • 26% post comments on sites and blogs • 15% have personal website • 15% are content remixers • 14% are bloggers • 13% use Twitter • 6% location services – 9% allow location awareness from social media – 23% maps etc.
  • 7. 56% of adults own laptops – up from 30% in 2006 52% of adults own DVRs – up from 3% in 2002 44% of adults own MP3 players – up from 11% in 2005 42% of adults own game consoles 19% of adults own e-book readers - Kindle 19% of adults own tablet computer - iPad
  • 8. Digital Revolution 2 Mobile – 87% 327.6 Total U.S. population: 315.5 million
  • 9. 4X% of adults/2X% of teens own “smartphones”
  • 10. Apps – 50% of adults Sept 2009 May 2010 August 2011 100% 80% 60% 50* 40% 38* 38 43* 43 29* 22% 20% 0% Download apps to their Have preloaded apps on Total who have apps on phone their phone phone
  • 11. Digital Revolution 3 Social networking – 50% of all adults 100% % of internet users 86% 85% 80% 83% 70% 71% 76% 67% 61% 60% 52% 48% 49% 47% 51% 40% 35% 25% 33% 25% 26% 20% 9% 8% 11% 13% 7% 7% 4% 0% 6% 1% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 18-29 30-49 50-64 65+
  • 12. Mean size of Facebook friends network 350.0 300.0 250.0 200.0 150.0 318.5 100.0 197.6 155.7 50.0 85.1 78.4 42.0 0.0 Millennials Gen X Younger Older Boomers Silent G.I. Generation (18-34) (35-46) Boomers (57-65) Generation (75+) (47-56) (66-74)
  • 13. New normal – circa 2012 • Broadband • Mobile • Gender parity • Race and ethnicity parity • Less SES stratification • Less generational variance • Email • Search • Social networking and content creation • Video on demand
  • 14. Eight realities of the new normal for information users and providers
  • 15. New Reality 1) The world is full of networked individuals using networked information Image attribution: Flickrverse, Expanding Ever with New Galaxies Forming Cobalt123 http://www.flickr.com/photos/cobalt/34248855/sizes/z/in/photostream/
  • 16. New Reality 2) The 4 V’s of information “physics” change Volume Velocity Vibrance Valence / Relevance
  • 17. New Reality 3) People are shifting info platforms
  • 18. New Reality 3) Corollary People use multiple platforms News platforms Americans use on typical day 90 78 80 73 70 61 % of adults (18+) 60 54 50 50 40 30 20 17 10 0 Local TV National Online Radio Local National network/cable newspaper newspaper
  • 19. New Reality 3) Corollary People blend platforms – 59% use online and offline # of news platforms Americans use typical day 70% 60% 46% 46% % of adults (18+) 50% 40% 30% 20% 7% 10% 0% 1 platform 2-3 platforms 4-6 platforms
  • 21. New Reality 3) Corollary People are not platform zealots
  • 22. New Reality 3) People’s encounters with information change Portable Participatory
  • 23. New Reality 3) People’s encounters with information change Personal
  • 24. New Reality 4) Influence is migrating from organizations to networks and new “experts” Traditional experts with new platforms, esp. blogs Amateur experts who are avid contributors – sometimes with tribes New algorithmic authorities
  • 25. New Reality 4) Corollary Social networks are more influential and are differently segmented and layered Sentries
  • 26. New Reality 4) Corollary Social networks are more influential and are differently segmented and layered Evaluators
  • 27. New Reality 4) Corollary Social networks are more influential and are differently segmented and layered Audience
  • 28. New Reality 5) People’s attention zones have changed • Continuous partial attention to media streams • Immersion in deep dives • Info-snacking in free moments
  • 29. New reality 5) Corollary People graze for info all day long
  • 30. New Reality 6) Knowledge containers and displays are changing in the age of the “metaverse”
  • 31. New Reality 7) New divides are emerging based on new tech literacies
  • 32. New Reality 8) The future is uncertain Your map is wrong!
  • 33. New Reality 8) Corollaries The architecture itself Information policies Social norms and attitudes
  • 34. Therefore … • … confront the existential question: What’s our franchise? • … what’s our mobile play? • … what’s our social play (natural alliances)? • … prepare for disruptions … … from “social” actors who aren’t looking for money or who don’t like current business models or credentials … from new analysts in the world of “big data” … from tech companies that see themselves as publishers/creators/curators