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The New Age of Politics and
Media
Lee Rainie - @lrainie
Director - Internet, Science and Technology Research
February 16, 2017
Flagler College
The New Age of Politics and Media
Three digital technology revolutions in the
past generation
4
First revolution – Internet (90% use it)
Broadband
1%
73%
2000 2005 2010 2016
Skews younger
More upscale by income and education
Tilts urban/suburban
5
Second revolution – Mobile
29%
81%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
95% have cell phones
51% have tablet computers
Smartphones
Skews younger
A bit smaller differences by socio-economic class
Tilts urban/suburban
Third revolution – Social media
5
%
69%
7
67
15 13
20 16
79
31 32 29
24
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Facebook Pinterest Instagram LinkedIn Twitter
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
%
% of internet users
Big change #1) It networked people
Networked Individualism
The move to looser, far-flung networks
Personal networks are:
More important – trust
Differently composed – segmented,
layered
Big change #2) It networked information
Pew Research danah boyd
pervasive (real-time + all-time) persistent / visible
portable replicable
personal scalable
participatory searchable
linked and unlinked spreadable
COLLAPSED CONTEXTS OF COMMUNICATION
Big change #3) It networked the public square
More niches
More topics of
discussion (and
different “news”
agendas”)
More alliances
More arguments
More DIY work
More disclosure
More surveillance
sousveillance
coveillance
More people in decision-
making spaces
crowdsourcing /
funding
More filtering
by algorithms
More evidence (but
not causation) of
everything humans do:
Love
Altruism
Brilliance
Hate
Selfishness
Stupidity
Big change #4) It networked the political
ecosystem
People are more personally
empowered
Easier to find like-minded allies, even
in tiny niches
Easier to raise money and mobilize
Easier to leap barriers of all kinds
Easier to mobilize (maybe
even new people)
Additive – use old methods PLUS new
ones
Meanwhile, big changes occur in
political culture
The political landscape of 2016
 Long-term demographic divides in partisanship
 Many – race, gender, age – long pre-dated this election
 Some – particularly education (sometimes seen as a proxy for
class) – emerged as a more potent force this cycle
 Partisan polarization guaranteed Trump a solid floor
 Deepening ideological divides by party in recent decades
 Partisan polarization not confined to policy differences,
increasingly tied to media use and it’s emotional (“affective
polarization”)
 Mood of the country in recent years increasingly
inhospitable to “continuity” candidates, more open to a
The gender gap in partisan identification
% of registered voters who identify as…
Source: Annual Pew Research Center surveys 1992-2016
Non-whites remain a solidly Democratic constituency
Presidential vote preference, by race and ethnicity
Source: National
Election Pool exit
polls
Wide age divide, though narrower than for Obama’s elections
Presidential vote preference, by age
Source: National
Election Pool exit
polls
College grads shift to Democratic Party, as less educated voters
move to the GOP
… even more pronounced among whites
% of registered voters who identify as…
Source: Annual Pew Research Center surveys 1992-2016
25www.pewresearch.org
A historically wide educational gap in 2016 preferences
Presidential vote preference, by educational attainment
Source: National Election Pool exit polls
Partisan polarization
More Democrats take liberal positions,
More Republicans take conservative positions
Source: 2014 Political Polarization in the American Public, 2015 Views of Government
Democrats and Republicans more ideologically
divided than in the past
Distribution of Democrats and Republicans on a 10-item scale of political values
Ideological polarization in the American public
It was 64% and 70%, respectively, in 1994!
Affective polarization also much stronger now
Source: Surveys conducted 1994, 1999, 2004, 2014 and 2015.
The New Age of Politics and Media
Negative stereotypes about the ‘other side’
Source: Surveys conducted Mar 2-28, 2016.
Consistent liberals & conservatives
often live in different media worlds
Source: 2014 Media Polarization
People want to live with others who share their
political views
Meanwhile, the next technology revolution is
underway
The internet will become ‘like electricity’ — less visible, yet
more deeply embedded in people’s lives for good and ill
Fourth revolution – Internet of Things, Metaverse, Virtual
Reality, Artificial Reality, Self-propelling stuff
Thank you!

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The New Age of Politics and Media

  • 1. The New Age of Politics and Media Lee Rainie - @lrainie Director - Internet, Science and Technology Research February 16, 2017 Flagler College
  • 3. Three digital technology revolutions in the past generation
  • 4. 4 First revolution – Internet (90% use it) Broadband 1% 73% 2000 2005 2010 2016 Skews younger More upscale by income and education Tilts urban/suburban
  • 5. 5 Second revolution – Mobile 29% 81% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 95% have cell phones 51% have tablet computers Smartphones Skews younger A bit smaller differences by socio-economic class Tilts urban/suburban
  • 6. Third revolution – Social media 5 % 69%
  • 7. 7 67 15 13 20 16 79 31 32 29 24 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Facebook Pinterest Instagram LinkedIn Twitter 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 % % of internet users
  • 8. Big change #1) It networked people
  • 9. Networked Individualism The move to looser, far-flung networks
  • 10. Personal networks are: More important – trust Differently composed – segmented, layered
  • 11. Big change #2) It networked information
  • 12. Pew Research danah boyd pervasive (real-time + all-time) persistent / visible portable replicable personal scalable participatory searchable linked and unlinked spreadable COLLAPSED CONTEXTS OF COMMUNICATION
  • 13. Big change #3) It networked the public square
  • 14. More niches More topics of discussion (and different “news” agendas”) More alliances More arguments More DIY work More disclosure More surveillance sousveillance coveillance
  • 15. More people in decision- making spaces crowdsourcing / funding More filtering by algorithms More evidence (but not causation) of everything humans do: Love Altruism Brilliance Hate Selfishness Stupidity
  • 16. Big change #4) It networked the political ecosystem
  • 17. People are more personally empowered Easier to find like-minded allies, even in tiny niches Easier to raise money and mobilize Easier to leap barriers of all kinds Easier to mobilize (maybe even new people) Additive – use old methods PLUS new ones
  • 18. Meanwhile, big changes occur in political culture
  • 19. The political landscape of 2016  Long-term demographic divides in partisanship  Many – race, gender, age – long pre-dated this election  Some – particularly education (sometimes seen as a proxy for class) – emerged as a more potent force this cycle  Partisan polarization guaranteed Trump a solid floor  Deepening ideological divides by party in recent decades  Partisan polarization not confined to policy differences, increasingly tied to media use and it’s emotional (“affective polarization”)  Mood of the country in recent years increasingly inhospitable to “continuity” candidates, more open to a
  • 20. The gender gap in partisan identification % of registered voters who identify as… Source: Annual Pew Research Center surveys 1992-2016
  • 21. Non-whites remain a solidly Democratic constituency Presidential vote preference, by race and ethnicity Source: National Election Pool exit polls
  • 22. Wide age divide, though narrower than for Obama’s elections Presidential vote preference, by age Source: National Election Pool exit polls
  • 23. College grads shift to Democratic Party, as less educated voters move to the GOP
  • 24. … even more pronounced among whites % of registered voters who identify as… Source: Annual Pew Research Center surveys 1992-2016
  • 25. 25www.pewresearch.org A historically wide educational gap in 2016 preferences Presidential vote preference, by educational attainment Source: National Election Pool exit polls
  • 27. More Democrats take liberal positions, More Republicans take conservative positions Source: 2014 Political Polarization in the American Public, 2015 Views of Government
  • 28. Democrats and Republicans more ideologically divided than in the past Distribution of Democrats and Republicans on a 10-item scale of political values
  • 29. Ideological polarization in the American public It was 64% and 70%, respectively, in 1994!
  • 30. Affective polarization also much stronger now Source: Surveys conducted 1994, 1999, 2004, 2014 and 2015.
  • 32. Negative stereotypes about the ‘other side’ Source: Surveys conducted Mar 2-28, 2016.
  • 33. Consistent liberals & conservatives often live in different media worlds Source: 2014 Media Polarization
  • 34. People want to live with others who share their political views
  • 35. Meanwhile, the next technology revolution is underway
  • 36. The internet will become ‘like electricity’ — less visible, yet more deeply embedded in people’s lives for good and ill Fourth revolution – Internet of Things, Metaverse, Virtual Reality, Artificial Reality, Self-propelling stuff

Editor's Notes

  1. The New Age of Politics and Media: What the Donald Trump campaign and dawn of the Trump presidency have taught us about the historic shifts in politics and media that have occurred in th Can you expand on the above: In your talk, what specifically will you be addressing? What can attendees expect to learn?   ------------------- Lee (or Mr. Rainie) will talk about the latest findings from the Pew Research Center about the state of politics and democratic institutions in the United States, as well as provide updates about the changing news media ecosystem enabled by the internet, mobile connectivity, and social media. He will describe how the campaign and early days of the Trump Administration have shown that major institutions like political parties and the news media have been challenged and changed by a fractured news environment, shifting trust in major institutions, and an increasingly polarized political landscape. He will also draw from his book, Networked: The new social operating system, in describing how unprecedented technology adoption has changed the way that people engage in social and political activities.                   Attendees will learn about the latest Pew Research data about the state of American politics and media: How does the public think Trump is doing? What excites AND bothers people about the current political climate? What’s happening in the economy and in people’s jobs in the age of swift technological change and globalization? Where are people getting news and information about developments in Washington and around the world? They will learn about how the political and personal landscape is being changed by technology. And they will learn about some of the coming trends and technology and how they might affect politics, institutions, the way that people get, create, and share information.     Why is your topic particularly significant now?   --------------------- Few societies in history have undergone the kind of change that we are now experiencing and the most recent campaign brought some of these trends into stark relief. People’s (and groups’) capacity to create and share information is unparalleled. The rapidity and breadth of change in science and technology has never occurred before. We have not ever seen the kinds of disruptions in basic institutions that we are witnessing now. Organizations that arose in the Industrial Era – big government bureaucracies, big corporations, big media companies, big labor unions – are all undergoing significant change.  Americans feel a mixture of excitement and apprehension about all this and the “Trump effect” adds to both those sensibilities.   Maybe you will also find it helpful to note that my organization, the Pew Research Center, is a nonpartisan “fact tank” that informs the public about the issues, attitudes and trends shaping America and the world. It conducts public opinion polling, demographic research, media content analysis and other empirical social science research, now including analysis of “big data.” The Center does not take policy positions and I am not permitted to be an advocate or partisan in any way.  
  2. Women supported Clinton over Trump by 54% to 42%. This is about the same as the Democratic advantage among women in 2012 (55% Obama vs. 44% Romney) and 2008 (56% Obama vs. 43% McCain). By 53% to 41%, more men supported Trump than Clinton. The advantage for Trump among men is larger than McCain or Romney The gender gap in presidential vote preference is among the widest in exit polls dating back to 1972. However, it is not dramatically higher than in some other recent elections, including the 2000 contest between Bush and Al Gore.
  3. Women supported Clinton over Trump by 54% to 42%. This is about the same as the Democratic advantage among women in 2012 (55% Obama vs. 44% Romney) and 2008 (56% Obama vs. 43% McCain). By 53% to 41%, more men supported Trump than Clinton. The advantage for Trump among men is larger than McCain or Romney The gender gap in presidential vote preference is among the widest in exit polls dating back to 1972. However, it is not dramatically higher than in some other recent elections, including the 2000 contest between Bush and Al Gore.
  4. Here’s your bumper sticker. For comparison, 1994 – typical Republican more conservative than 70% of Democrats / now 94% 1994 – typical Democrat more liberal than 64% of Republicans / now 92%