2. Effect of Climate Change
Parameters on Crop Duration and
Productivity
SANJU, H.R.
PALB 1173
3. o Introduction
• Climate change
• Parameters of climate change
o Climate change parameters on crop duration
o Climate change parameters on crop productivity
o Conclusion
o Future line of work
Sequence of presentation
4. 4
“Climate change refers to a statistically significant
variation in either the mean state of the climate or in its
variability, persisting for an extended period (typically
decades or longer)”
“Climate change refers to general shifts in
climate, including
temperature, precipitation, winds, and other
Factors”
CLIMATE CHANGE…
5. Two main causes for climate change
Natural Anthropogenic
• Natural fluctuations in
the intensity of solar
radiation
• Volcanic eruptions
• Short term cycles viz.
ENSO
•Burning of fossil fuel emits
CO2
•Methane emission from
agriculture, land fills and
industry
•Nitrous oxide emission from
agriculture and industrial
sector
•Release of CO2 due change in
land use and land cover.
6. Fig 1 : Major contribution of greenhouse gases to climatic
change over next 100 years based on 1990 global emission.
CO2
CH4
CFC
N2O
65%
CO217%
CH4
12%
CFC
8%
N2O
Aggarwal, et. al., (1993)
7.
8. 1.High CO2 in the atmosphere
2. Increase in Temperature
Maximum and minimum temperature
3.Variation in rainfall pattern
No. of rainy days/ shift in season
Amount and distribution
4.Solar radiation
Day length
5.Drought
6.Floods
Major Parameters of Climate change
9. Fig 2: Estimates of Future Levels of CO2
Year CO2, ppm
2000 369
2010-2015 388-398
2050/2060 463-623
2100 478-1099
IPCC, 2001
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1950 1990 2025 2050
CO2 in ppm
10. Fig 3: Effect of rise in CO2 on C3 & C4 plants
•Photosynthesis increase (60-80%)
•Stomatal conductance decreases
•Transpiration reduces
•WUE increasers (70%)
11. Crop Leaf
photosynthesis
Grain yield Stomatal
conductance
Per cent change
Maize 3 4 -34
Rice 36 30 -31
Wheat 35 31 -38
Sorghum 9 0.8 -37
Cotton 33 44 -36
Groundnut 27 30 -28
Soybean 35 34 -40
USDA Hatfield et al.,2011
Table 1: Response of plant physiological variables to doubling of CO2
(660 ppm) concentrations
12. CO2
concentrati
on (ppm)
Leaves dry
wt
(g/plant)
No. of
seeds
Seeds
/plant
Seed wt
(g/plant)
280 3.30 27.7 55.1 9.25
330 5.09 36.3 84.3 14.86
660 5.43 50.2 106.7 17.85
USDA Allen et al., 1991
Table 2: Effect of CO2 levels on soybean growth
13. Crops
Pod/ seed yield (g/plant)
% yield increase350 µ mol mol-1 700 µ mol mol-1
Groundnut (C3) 9.06 13.29 46.7
Sorghum (C4) 25.78 27.37 6.2
U.K. Clifford et al., 1993
Table 3: Yield of groundnut and sorghum grown in controlled
environment (glass house) at ambient and enriched carbon dioxide
levels.
14. 0
5
10
15
20
25
Photosynthesis(umol/m2
/s)
Pusa Basm ati-1 Pusa 677 Pusa Basm ati-1 Pusa 677
Ambient Elevated
FACE OTC
0
5 0
1 0 0
1 5 0
2 0 0
2 5 0
3 0 0
3 5 0
4 0 0
4 5 0
Grainyield(g/m
2
)
P u s a Ba s m a t i- 1 P u s a 6 7 7 P u s a Ba s m a t i- 1 P u s a 6 7 7
Amb ie n t E le v ate d
Fig.4 :Effect of elevated CO2 on the grain yield and Photosynthesis in
rice cultivars under FACE and OTC Aggarwal et al., 2002
16. (IPCC 2007)
Fig 5 : changes in temperature, sea level and snow cover due to climate
change from 1850-2000
17. Fig 6: Temperature change from 1990-2100
IPCC., 2012
Increase average global surface temperature 1.8-4.0oC
18. Table 4: Expected changes in temperature and rainfall in India
Year Season Increase in
temperature (0C)
Change in rainfall
(%)
Lowest Highest Lowest Highest
2020s Rabi 1.08 1.54 -1.95 4.36
Kharif 0.87 1.12 1.81 5.10
2050s Rabi 2.54 3.18 -9.22 3.82
Kharif 1.81 2.37 7.18 10.52
2080s Rabi 4.14 6.31 -24.83 -4.50
Kharif 2.91 4.62 10.10 15.18
Lal et al., 2001
19. States Temperature
(oC)
Rainfall
MADHYA PRADESH varying trends Declining trend
GUJARATH 0.2-0.5 Varying trends
CHATTISGARH 1.0 Declining trends
MAHARASTHRA 1.0 More rains in May, June and July
KARNATAKA 0.5 Shift in peak rainfall month from
September to October. Lower rainfall
in July & Higher in August.
ORISSA 1.0 Frequent and intense cyclones and
delayed monsoon
ANDHRA PRADESH 1.0 Intense rainfall away from coasts
KERALA 0.8 Decline in June-July, marginal
increase in August-September
TAMIL NADU 1.0-1.5 Declining trend
Anon., 2008
Table 5: Temperature and rainfall trends over different states of India
20. Fig 7 : Rainfall shift in Eastern dry zone of Karnataka
Karnataka Rajegowda et al., 2008
21. AUGUST 27, 2008Anantapur district in
Andhra Pradesh received 110 mm rain fall in a single day ( average
rainfall in entire August is 89 mm) and destroyed entire groundnut.
June 28, 2008 Mahasamund district in Chattisgarh, received 183 mm rainfall
that day was more than the 150.5 mm rainfall usually received in the month of
June and it was followed by 16 days dry spell.
July 26, 2005 a record breaking 944 mm rainfall flooded Mumbai and
ruined farmers in adjoining Raigarh and Ratnagiri districts. Mumbai usually gets
600 mm rain over June and July. Paddy and Sugarcane on 90 thousand ha were
destroyed.
September 2, 2006 Barmer district of Rajasthan received 577 mm of rains
over 3 days. This was more than twice the average rainfall in a year. Farmers
lost crops worth Rs. 1, 300 Crores and 75, 000 farm animals.
RAIN SHOCKED INDIAN FARMERS
22. Crops Minimum (o C) Maximum(o C) Optimum (o C)
wheat 3-4.5 30-32 25
Barley 3-4.5 38-40 20
Oat 4-5 30 25
Maize 8-10 40-44 32-35
Sorghum 8-10 40 32-35
Rice 10-12 36-38 30-32
Tobacco 13-14 35 28
Table 6 : Cardinal temperature points for different crops
24. Table 7: Wheat crop response to variations in temperature
Temp
Change
(ºC)
Yield and yield attributes
Crop
duration
(Days)
Maximum
LAI
Grains
Per ear
Grain
yield
(q/ha)
Straw
yield
(t/ha)
+2.0 %
D
E
V
I
A
T
I
O
N
-7.7 -23.9 -4.1 -12.2 -21.6
+1.5 -5.6 -17.6 -3.0 -7.2 -17.7
+1.0 -3.5 -12.1 -0.3 -4.9 -11.5
+0.5 -0.7 -6.8 -0.2 -0.2 -6.0
Normal 143 3.8 24.12 50.43 8.83
-0.5 +3.5 +16.6 -1.0 +5.9 +10.9
-1.0 +6.3 +23.4 -1.7 +9.4 +15.2
-1.5 +7.7 +26.3 -0.4 +7.0 +20.5
-2.0 +11.2 +37.8 -1.7 +7.7 +27.1
Punjab Mavi et al. 1993
25. Table 8 : Change in temperature effect on Growing degree days in wheat
Turkey Anon., 2000
26. Table 9 : Change in maturity date under two climatic change scenarios
( +1ºC and +2ºC)
Turkey Anon., 2000
27. Fig 8 : Date of maturity and the expected wheat yields
under two climatic change scenarios ( +1ºC and +2ºC)
Turkey Anon., 2000
28. IARI, New Delhi Sinha and Swaminathan, 1991
Fig.9 : Effect of mean temperature on duration and yield of rice variety
IR 36 at different locations
29. Impact of climate change on maize duration and yield
T1 No climate change
T2 Uniform increase in maximum temperature alone by 10 C
T3 Uniform increase in minimum temperature alone by 10 C
T4 Uniform increase in both maximum and minimum temperature
by 10 C
T5 Increase in CO2 level alone to 450 ppm
T6 Increase in CO2 level alone to 450 ppm + Uniform increase in both
maximum and minimum temperature by 10 C
T7 Increase in precipitation by 10%
T8 Increase in CO2 level alone to 450 ppm + Uniform increase in both
maximum and minimum temperature by 10 C + Increase in
precipitation by 10%
T.N Geethalakshmi and Dheebakaran., 2008
30. Fig 10: Impact of Climate change on duration of Maize
T.N Geethalakshmi and Dheebakaran.,2008
Good year- 553.2mm Rainfall
Bad year - 117.7mm Rainfall
Normal year – 352.8 mm rainfall
31. Table 10 :Effect of climate change on maize yield
Climate
change
scenario
GOOD YEAR BAD YEAR NORMAL YEAR
Maize
yield
%deviati
on
Maize
yield
%deviati
on
Maize
yield
%deviati
on
T1 2132 0 267 0 601 0
T2 2265 6.2 236 -11.7 581 -3.2
T3 2189 2.7 290 8.6 673 12.1
T4 2192 2.8 254 -5.6 652 8.5
T5 2144 0.6 275 2.9 618 2.9
T6 2215 3.9 268 0.5 671 11.7
T7 2367 11.0 376 40.5 1026 70.8
T8 2528 18.6 359 34.3 1143 90.3
T.N Geethalakshmi and Dheebakaran., 2008
32. LOCATION Year Duration Days to
anthesis
Economic
yield kg/ha
COIMBATORE 2000 116 94 4876
2020 113 92 4403
2050 110 90 3652
2080 109 90 3361
MADHURAI 2000 114 92 5117
2020 111 89 4752
2050 107 87 4305
2080 106 86 3386
SALEM 2000 116 93 4592
2020 112 92 3850
2050 111 90 2997
2080 108 88 2764
Table 11: Impact of climate change on duration, days to anthesis and
economic yield of Rice in different locations
T.N. Srivani, et.al.,2007
33. Table 12: Rice crop response to variations in temperature
Temp
Change
(ºC)
%
D
E
V
I
A
T
I
O
N
Yield and yield attributes
Crop
duration
(Days)
Maximum
LAI
Grains
Per ear
Grain
yield
(q/ha)
Straw
yield
(t/ha)
+2.0 -3.3 -3.9 -12.4 -8.4 -6.4
+1.5 -2.6 -3.9 -8.3 -8.2 -1.7
+1.0 -2.0 -2.4 -6.1 -4.9 -1.2
+0.5 -1.3 -1.1 -2.4 -3.2 -0.7
Normal 153 6.2 494 61.4 4.94
-0.5 0.0 +0.2 +1.4 +3.0 +4.2
-1.0 +1.3 +0.5 +3.4 +2.7 +2.0
-1.5 +2.0 +1.1 +3.9 +4.6 +3.5
-2.0 +13.1 +13.6 +12.6 +21.7 +15.1
Ludiyana Mathauda et al., 2000
34. Fig. 11: Trends in maximum and minimum temperatures and radiation
from 1979 to 2003
Philippines Peng et al ., 2006
35. Fig.12 : The relationship between rice yield attributed and growing season
mean maximum temperature, minimum temperature
Philippines Peng et al ., 2006
36. Location year Grain
yield
(g/m2)
Percentage
of ripened
grain (%)
1000
grain
Dry
weight
Temperature
during GFP
( 0 C)
Masture 1999 599.2 77.9 19.1 26.9
MastureH 1999 411.5 55.4 18.5 28.1
Masture 2000 591.2 83.4 20.1 27.8
MastureH 2000 427.6 60.7 19.0 29.3
Akana 1999 668.9 87.5 20.6 23.1
Takatuki 2000 574.3 60.7 20.4 26.6
LSD
(0.05)
75.5 14.1 0.9
Table 13: Grain yield, yield components of rice cultivar Koshikari and mean
temperature during the grain-filling in different location
Japan Kobata and Uemuki, 2004
37. Crops Temperature rise
1oC 2 oC 3oC
per cent reduction in yield
Wheat 8.1 18.7 25.7
Rice 5.4 7.4 25.1
Maize 10.4 14.6 21.4
Groundnut 8.7 23.2 36.2
Ludiyana Hundal and Kaur, 1996
Table 14: Effect of increased temperature on productivity of crops in
Punjab
38. Table 15 : Response of simulated grain yield of irrigated wheat to changes in
temperature and CO2 in north India. (Aggarwal, et al., 2002).
39. Fig 13 :Impact of climate change on wheat yield in north India
• Grain yields of wheat decrease
by 17% with a 2o C increase in
temperature.
• Increase in CO2 to 550 ppm
nullify the effect of 2o C rise in
temperature.
Aggarwarl, et al., 2002
350
450
550
650
750
0 1 2 3 4 5
Increase in temperature, C
CO2,ppm
20%
10% 0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
2070
2010
Increase in temperature (o C)
IncreaseinCO2(ppm)
40. Parameter Control UV-B at 0.56 Wm-2
Plant height (cm) 71 48
Pod number/plant 120 85
Yield /plant (g) 24 19
Germany Giller, 1991
Table 16: UV- B radiations on soybean plant growth
and yield
41. Table 17: Effect of high temperature on productivity of
different crops
Wheat yield q/ha
Season 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05
productivity 17.38 14.02 13.67 20.12
% decrease
over 2001-02
- -19.3 -21.3 +10.01
Rapeseed and Mustard yield kg/ha
productivity 884 540 360 470
% decrease
over 2001-02
- -38.9 -59.3 -8.24
H.P Rajendra prasad and Ranbir Rana ., 2006
42. Table 18: Temperature during March at Dhaulakuan and
Akrot
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
>28 >30 >32
2002
2003
2004
0
10
20
30
40
>28 >30 >32
2002
2003
2004
d
a
y
s
Temperature (ºC) Temperature (ºC)
H.P Rajendra prasad and Ranbir Rana ., 2006
43. Solar radiation (MJ m-
2 day-1)
Simulated grain yield
kg/ha
% change from base
yield (3837 kg/ha)
3 5387 40
2 5111 33
1 4523 18
-1 3156 -18
-2 2503 -35
-3 1903 -50
Anand, Gujarat Pandey et al., 2007
Table 19 : Simulated wheat yield due to effect of solar radiation
44. Fig: Cumulative Effect of Temperature and Solar Radiation on
Wheat Yield
Pakisthan Mukhta and Fayyaz-ul (2011)
45. Table 20: Effect of temperature during active tillering period on tiller
production
Planting
dates
Daily means of
temperature
(ºC)
Daily mean
Sunshine hours
Tiller production m-2
V1 V2 V3
13-07-1994 27.1 3.7 658 600 578
27-07-1994 25.8 4.3 533 484 480
13-08-1994 25.8 3.6 529 489 484
11-01-1995 24.1 10.4 471 453 489
25-01-1995 26.6 10.8 582 524 507
04-02-1995 27.4 10.4 658 609 573
10-07-1995 26.5 5.0 560 533 556
25-07-1995 27.4 6.0 689 649 550
12-08-1995 26.1 4.0 578 529 529
Hyderabad Lalitha et.al., 1999
46. Change in CO2 level , temp (ºC) and Solar
radiation (MJ m-2 day-1)
Simulated grain yield
kg/ha
% change from base
yield (3837 kg/ha)
440 ppm
3 4369 14
2 4699 22
1 4726 23
-1 4550 19
-2 4255 11
-3 3776 -2
660 ppm
3 5781 51
2 6332 65
1 6541 70
-1 6229 62
-2 5950 55
-3 5537 42
Table 21: Simulated wheat yield due interaction effect of temperature, solar
radiation and CO2 concentration
Anand, Gujarat Pandey et al., 2007
47. Table 22 : Change in Total Crop Duration due to Rise in Temperature
IARI Tripathy, et.al.,2010
48. Figure .14 : Yield Reduction in Different Cereal Crops with Temperature Rise
IARI Tripathy, et.al.,2010
49. IARI Tripathy et al.,2010
Fig. 15 . Changes in Grain Yield of Different Cereal Crops to Temperature
Changes and Doubled Atmospheric CO2Conditions
50. Table 23: Interactive effects of CO2 and temperature on yield
of maize and wheat
crop CO 2 ppm
Yield kg/ha
Existing Existing +3
ºC
% Deviation
(+3 ºC)
Maize 350 3700 2337 -36.8
700 4314 3713 -13.8
wheat 350 3916 3339 -14.7
700 6131 5206 -15.08
Punjab kaur et al., 2012
51. Fig 16: Annual rainfall of Karnataka state and
Tumkur district.
Panduranga et al., 2006Bangalore
52. Fig 17 : Productivity of various crops during the
period 1955 to 2000
Panduranga et al., 2006Bangalore
53. Table 24 : Impact of drought on productivity of pearl millet
Station
Pearl millet yield in kg ha-1
% Decrease in
yield
Good monsoon
year (1983)
Mean of 3
drought years
1984-1987
Barmer 285 65 77
Jalore 468 105 77
Jodhpur 337 79 77
Nagpur 721 265 63
Pali 553 248 55
Jodhpur Singh et al., 1999
54. • Rise in CO2 level from 280-660 ppm has increased the grain yield (50-70 g m-
2) of rice and seed weight (17.85 g plant-1) of soybean and about 46.7 per cent
pod yield of groundnut.
• Increase in temperature 2.0 0C over normal decreases the Crop duration
(3 & 7.7days), Grain yield (8.5& 12.2 q ha-1) in case of rice and wheat,
respectively and also increase in solar radiation from 1-3 MJ m-2 day-1 resulted
in increased yield of wheat from 18-40 %.
• Both maximum and minimum temperature has negative impact on yield , Grain
yield of rice declined by 10% for every 1ºC increase in minimum temperature
and decrease in wheat grain yield (21.3%), rapeseed pod yield (59.3%) at
maximum temperature in march.
• Increase in the yield of maize and wheat due to interaction effect of temperature
& CO2 was observed, but beneficial only at one unit increase in temperature and
radiation at all levels of CO2.
Conclusions
55. • Research needs to find out appropriate management practices
to sustain the present level yield in changed climate
conditions.
• Evolving efficient and soil management practices in addition
to identification or breeding of crops and varieties with higher
water use efficiency, dry matter conversion ratio, positive
response to temperature extremes and elevated CO2 .
Future line of work
