Climate change and agriculture lecture by MUHAMMAD FAHAD ANSARI 12IEEM 14
Climate Change :Impacts on Agriculture MUHAMMAD FAHAD ANSARI 12IEEM 14
Climate ChangeNouna long-term change in the earths climate, especially a changedue to an increase in the average atmospheric temperature:Melting glaciers imply that life in the Arctic is affected byclimate change.Climate change is a significant and lasting change in thestatistical distribution of weather patterns over periods rangingfrom decades to millions of years. It may be a change inaverage weather conditions or the distribution of eventsaround that average (e.g., more or fewer extreme weatherevents). Climate change may be limited to a specific region ormay occur across the whole Earth.
Current Issues in Agriculture• Overproduction in short-term, yet food insecurity for a large population• Stagnation/decline in yields• Diversification• Natural resource management- SOM decline, input use efficiencies, narrow genetic base• Quality and quantity of water resources• Profitability: Increasing cost and deceleration in TFP growth
E merging Scenario: Drivers of Agricultural Transformation• Increasing population leading to higher (and quality) demand of food• Increasing urbanization• Increasing rural migration -tenant farming, contract and cooperative farming• Increasing inter- and intra-sectoral competition for resources: land, water, energy, credit• Increasing globalization: removal of trade barriers, information and communication• New technologies: Biotechnology, space and information technology Increasing privatization of agricultural extension
Global climate change• Global mean temperatures have increased by 0.74oC during last 100 years• GHG (CO2, methane, nitrous oxide) increase, caused by fossil fuel use and land use changes, main reasons.• Temperatures increase by 1.8-6.4 C by 2100 AD. Greater increase in rabi• Precipitation likely to increase in kharif• Snow cover is projected to contract• More frequent hot extremes, heavy precipitations• Sea level to rise to be 0.18 - 0.59 m.
Contribution of different sectors in world to climate change. (Sources of Greenhouse Gas emissions)
What is the contribution of different sectors in to climate change?(Sources of greenhouse gas emissions) Energy Land use 61% changes 1% Agriculture 28% Wastes Industrial 2% processes 8%
What sectors of agriculture in contribute to climate change? Manure Rice cultivation m anagem ent 23% Crop residues 5% 1% Em ission from soils 12% Enteric ferm entation 59%
Estimates of Future Levels of CO2 Year CO2, ppm 2000 369 2010-2015 388-398 2050/2060 463-623 2100 478-1099
Most of the greenhouse gas emissions are from the industrialized countries 30 USA and Canada 25 Japan, Australia 20 tons of CO2 eq/capita and New zealand 15 Europe Middle East Latin America 10 East Asia Africa South Asia 5 0 Region
Climate Change Scenarios for IndiaYear Season Increase in Change in o Temperature, C Rainfall, % Lowest Highest Lowest Highest2020s Rabi 1.08 1.54 -1.95 4.36 Kharif 0.87 1.12 1.81 5.102050s Rabi 2.54 3.18 -9.22 3.82 Kharif 1.81 2.37 7.18 10.522080s Rabi 4.14 6.31 -24.83 -4.50 Kharif 2.91 4.62 10.10 15.18
Other observations of change in global climate• Globally, hot days, hot nights, and heat waves have become more frequent.• Frequency of heavy precipitation events has increased over most land areas.• Global average sea level rose at an average rate of 1.8 mm per year over 1961 to 2003.
Other changes in global climate in future Tropical cyclones to become more intense, with heavier precipitation. Snow cover is projected to contract. Hot extremes, heat waves, and heavy precipitation events will become more frequent. The projected sea level rise to be 0.18 - 0.59 meters.
Potential Impact of Climate Change onWheat Production in developing countries 80 75 70 Production , Mtons 65 60 55 50 45 40 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 Year Source: Aggarwal et al. (2002)
Projected impacts of climate changeon developing countries agriculture Cereal productivity to decrease by 10-40% by 2100. Greater loss expected in rabi. Every 1oC increase in temperature reduces wheat production by 4-5 million tons. Loss only 1-2 million tons if farmers could plant in time. Reduced frequency of frost damage: less damage to potato, peas, mustard Increased droughts and floods are likely to increase production variability
Projected impacts of climate changeon developing countries agriculture Imbalance in food trade due to positive impacts on Europe and N. America, and negative impacts on us Increased water, shelter, and energy requirement for livestock; implications for milk production Increasing sea and river water temperatures are likely to affect fish breeding, migration, and harvests. Coral reefs start declining from 2030. Considerable effect on microbes, pathogens, and insects
Projected impacts of climate changeon developing countries agriculture Increasing temperature would increase fertilizer requirement for the same production targets; and result in higher emissions Increasing sea and river water temperatures are likely to affect fish breeding, migration, and harvests. Coral reefs start declining from 2030. Increased water, shelter, and energy requirement for livestock; implications for milk production
Climate Variability and Climate Change- Another Driver in Agriculture • Increase in CO2 • Increase in temperature • Change in precipitation • Sea level rise • Variability and extreme events such as floods and drought
Projected beneficial impacts of climate change on developing countries agriculture Reduced frequency of frost damage: less damage to potato, peas, mustard New ‘flooded’ areas may become available for fisheries in coastal regions Other potential benefits, if any, need to be characterized
Impacts on Agriculture• May alter spatial and temporal demands and supply by impacting: – Food production – Stability and sustainability – Employment and Autonomy – Profitability – Trade & economy – Global financial Crisis
Adaptation and mitigation framework:Need to consider emerging scenario• Greater demand for (quality) food; yields need to increase by 30-50% by 2030• Increasing urbanization and globalization• Increasing competition from other sectors for land, energy, water and capital• Climate change a continuous process; greater focus on short-term actions on adaptation and mitigation
Key adaptation strategies¢ Assisting farmers in coping with current climatic risks¢ Intensifying food production systems¢ Improving land and water management¢ Enabling policies¢ Strengthening adaptation research
Information Needs- Scenarios• Changes in CO2 with time• Spatial and temporal changes in temperature and rainfall• Impact on groundwater and surface water availability, floods and droughts, sea level rise
Impact assessment- Information NeedsWhere, how and at what cost food (crops, livestock products and fish) can be produced to meet the increasing demand and/or what alternative technologies would be needed to meet the desired production targets?Which region and the social group would be more affected as a consequence of global environmental change?
Impact assessment- Information NeedsWhich pests will start migrating to currently uninfected areas?How does climate change affect the quality of cereals, spices, medicinal plants, tea and coffee?How inter-state and international trade of different commodities is likely to be affected by global warming considering differential impacts on competing states and
Adaptations to Climate Change• New varieties: drought/heat resistant• New farm management practices• Change in land use• Watershed management• Agri-insurance
India Adapting to Global Warming byChanged Management of Wheat in North Year 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 Change in grain yield, % 0 -5 -10 -15 Minimum New management -20 Maximum -25 -30 -35
Mitigation of Climatic Change/ Feedbacks on Environment Agro-forestry systems Resource conservation technologies Enriching soil organic matter Biofuels
Mitigation of Climatic Change/ Feedbacks on Environment : Information NeedsCan alternate land use systems such as plantation crops and agroforestry increase carbon sequestration and yet meet food demand?How much area can be taken out from agriculture for forestry; where and what policy measures would be needed?How much carbon is conserved by limited tillage options? For how long and in which regions?What policies and technologies would encourage the farmers to enrich organic matter in the soil and thus improve soil health?
Conclusions• Climate change is a reality• Indian agriculture is likely to suffer losses due to heat, erratic weather, and decreased irrigation availability• Adaptation strategies can help minimize negative impacts• These need research, funding, and policy support• Costs of adaptation and mitigation are unknown but likely to be high; costs of inaction could be even higher• Start with ‘no-regrets’ adaptation options
Climate change…Is it the Beginning of the end..??The earth is heating..So is the environment.. Now..Its Upto Us..What We can Do..??
Come Forward.. Join hands..Save Agriculture..to sustain ourselves..