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Kulbhooshan saini International Science Congress-2014

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Kulbhooshan saini International Science Congress-2014

  1. 1. Kulbhooshan Saini,Neerja Shrivastava &Shuchita Jain Govt.P.G.College,Kota (Raj) J.D.B.Girls College,Kota (Raj)*
  2. 2.  Climate change is expected to impact to crop yield both positive and negative ways, though the magnitude may differ at various location.  An assessment of the possible net impacts while sustaining positive impact of climate change on crop production through adaptation methodology.  Temperature is an important climatic factor, which can have profound affect on the yield of crops mainly through phonological development processes.
  3. 3.  Differential response to temperature change by various crops has been shown under different production environment. Variation in rainfall also affects the crop productivity.  The various studies conducted in the country have shown that the surface air temperatures in India are going up at the rate of 0.4°C per hundred years, particularly during the post-monsoon and winter season.  India is a large country with 15 agro-climatic zones, with diverse seasons, crops and farming systems. For a majority of people in India, to this day, agriculture is the main source of livelihood.
  4. 4.  Agriculture is the most vulnerable sector to CC as it is inherently sensitive to climate variability and CC will leave its impacts on Indian agriculture in various direct and indirect ways.  The surface air temperatures will increase by 2 to 4°C by 2070- 2100. As mentioned earlier, the rabi crop will be impacted seriously and every 1°C increase in temperature reduces wheat production by 4-5 million tons, as per a study by IARI.  This loss can be reduced to 1-2 million tons only if farmers change to timely planting. Increased climatic extremes like droughts and floods are likely to increase production variability.  Productivity of most cereals would decrease due to increase in temperature and decrease in water availability, especially in Indo-Gangetic plains. The loss in crop production is projected at 10-40% by 2100, depending upon the modeling technique applied.
  5. 5.  Climate change is causing grave impact on global agriculture, threatening food security and livelihoods of farmers. Agricultural sustainability is being impacted in two interrelated ways: first, by diminishing the long- term ability of agro eco-systems to provide food for the world's population; and second, by inducing shifts in agricultural regions that may encroach upon natural Changes in temperature and rainfall patterns could alter the growing season and cropping patterns.  In the light of these facts present research was undertaken to known the Environmental impact on production of Sorghum and Pearl millet of Alwar district. An attempt has been made to assess the interactive impact of two important component of climate change i.e. temperature and rainfall on the productivity of the major food crops (Sorghum & Pearl Millet) taking Alwar as study area.
  6. 6.  The selected study site is the Alwar District, which geographically lies between 27°04’ N and 28°07’ N latitudes and 76°07’ E and 77°13 E longitudes. It covers an area of 8.380 sq. K.M.  The district occupies about 2.45% of the total area of the state.  The district is the 17th largest by area in state.
  7. 7.  To carry out this study preliminary survey of was made of study site for shake of convenience and systematic study.  The climatic data's i.e. Rainfall & Temperature (2001-2010) were collected from Agricultural Research station (ARS) Navgoan, Alwar.  Crops production data (2001-2010) were collected from Agricultural Department, Alwar.  To examine the relationship between the crop (Sorghum and Pearl Millet) and climatic data different statical methods are used to give perfect view of understanding work.
  8. 8. Sorghum (Jowar) Botanical Name- Sorghum vulgare Ecology of Plant- - Habit and Habitat – Annual Herb - Inflorescence- Dense panicle with spikelet - Part Used – Leaves and seed Cropping Condition - Grown as Kharif - Black Cotton soil and Loam is suitable - Annual rainfall of 40-100 cm - Mature within 140-160 days. Medicinal uses- - Epilepsy - Piles - Ulcer - Blood disorder - Pathri
  9. 9. Pearl Millet (Bajra) Botanical Name- Pennesetum typhoids Ecology of plants- - Habit and Habitat – Annual herb - Inflorescence – Dense panicle with spikelet - Part used – Leaves and Seed Cropping Condition- - Grown as kharif - Light soil and Semi arid condition is suitable - Annual rainfall of 40-100 cm. - Sown in mid July and mature in October Medicinal Uses- - Asthma - Migraines - Heart Disease
  10. 10. S.NO. YEARS SOWN AREA (In Hectares) PRODUCTION (In Tons) PRODUCTIVITY (In K.G./Hact.) 1. 2001 24008 13276 553 2. 2002 33954 5137 151 3. 2003 31738 16503 520 4. 2004 29386 14906 507 5. 2005 27767 8799 317 6. 2006 28505 20138 706 7. 2007 31535 21874 694 8. 2008 24459 15189 621 9. 2009 43288 14734 340 10. 2010 31990 18042 564
  11. 11. S.NO. YEARS SOWN AREA (In Hectares) PRODUCTION (In Tons) PRODUCTIVITY (In K.G./Hact.) 1. 2001 188597 349521 1853 2. 2002 149753 110440 737 3. 2003 232924 402602 1728 4. 2004 191980 302169 1574 5. 2005 219533 273938 1248 6. 2006 232214 417342 1797 7. 2007 246411 429718 1744 8. 2008 226349 364421 1610 9. 2009 276961 312113 1127 10. 2010 273147 358915 1314
  12. 12. 515 212 806 471 609 401 561 927 470 778 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 RAINFALL YEARS RAINFALL RAINFALL (IN MM.)
  13. 13. 17.2 16.8 19.3 18.1 17.6 18.5 18.2 17.6 18.2 19.2 31.5 30.4 31.8 32.7 32.7 33.7 32.5 31.7 33.1 32.9 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Temperature(ºC) Years TEMPERATURE Temperature(Min.) Temperature(Max.)
  14. 14. 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Productivity (In K.G./Hact.) 553 151 520 507 317 706 694 621 340 564 RAINFALL (IN MM.) 515 212 806 471 609 401 561 927 470 778 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 RAINFALL
  15. 15. 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Min. Temperature(In ˚C) 17.2 16.8 19.3 18.1 17.6 18.5 18.2 17.6 18.2 19.2 Max. Temperature (In ˚C) 31.5 30.4 31.8 32.7 32.7 33.7 32.5 31.7 33.1 32.9 Productivity (In K.G./Hact.) 553 151 520 507 317 706 694 621 340 564 Min. Temperature(In ˚C) Max. Temperature (In ˚C) Productivity (In K.G./Hact.)
  16. 16. 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Productivity (In K.G./Hact.) 1853 737 1728 1574 1248 1797 1744 1610 1127 1314 RAINFALL (IN MM.) 515 212 806 471 609 401 561 927 470 778 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 RAINFALL
  17. 17. 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Min. Temperature(In ˚C) 17.2 16.8 19.3 18.1 17.6 18.5 18.2 17.6 18.2 19.2 Max. Temperature (In ˚C) 31.5 30.4 31.8 32.7 32.7 33.7 32.5 31.7 33.1 32.9 Productivity (In K.G./Hact.) 1853 737 1728 1574 1248 1797 1744 1610 1127 1314 Min. Temperature(In ˚C) Max. Temperature (In ˚C) Productivity (In K.G./Hact.)
  18. 18.  Climate is one of the main determinants of agricultural production throughout the world there is significant concern about the effects of climate change and its variability on agricultural production.  The higher expected temperature might lower the yields. However, at the same time, higher rainfall could enhance growing period of crops.  The world’s leading experts have recently concluded that increases in global mean surface temperature during the past century are unlikely to have been caused entirely by natural effects, and that change in both average temperature and the geographic, seasonal, and vertical patterns of temperature indicate the influence of human actions on global climate.
  19. 19.  Our study correlates the results with the various studies (Royal Society London, 2005).Climate will have the greatest impact on boreal forests. But temperature first will be affected to a lesser extent and tropical forests will be least affected under climate change condition (Catrinus J. Jepma and Mohan Munasinghe, 1998).  Temperature increase may shorten the length of the growing period for these crops and, in the absence of compensatory management responses, reduce yields (Porter and Gawith 1999; Tubiello et al., 2000).  Jadhav et al., (2009) observed from the seven years data (2002 to 2008) that the crop sown in MW 26 (25th June to 01 July) recorded highest grain yield followed by the crop sown in MW 24 (11 to 17th June).
  20. 20.  Hussain et al., (1999) studied rainfall data for about 105 years covering the period from 1901 to 2005 was analyzed for this purpose it is observed that there has been a decreasing trend in rainfall during the months of June and August.  Decline in yield is observed to the tune of 15 to 25% in all major crops of the area including rice which is being the most predominant crop of Assam.  When the temperature was increased in the range of 1 to 3˚C. When temperature was decreased up to 3˚C, the increasing trends in the biomass and grain yield were observed to the tune of 20 to 80% and 19 to 79%, respectively.
  21. 21.  Cline, W. (2007) Global Warming and Agriculture: Impact Estimates by Country. Center for Global Development. Washington DC, USA. 250 pp.  Hussain R., K. K. Nath and R.L. Deka (2009) Climate variability and yield fluctuations of some major crops of jorhat (Assam). Workshop Proceedings: Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture ISPRS Archives XXXVIII-8/W3, 402.  Jadhav M.G., V. G. Maniyar and G.R. More (2009).Influnce of change in weather on phenology and yield of kharif sorghum at parbhani in maharastra.Workshop Proceedings: Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture ISPRS Archives XXXVIII-8/W3, 401.  Porter, J. R. and Gawith, M. 1999. Temperatures and the growth and development of wheat: a review. European Journal of Agronomy 10, 23-36.  Saseendran, R.M., Smith, I.M. and Matson, P.A. 2000. Ecological and evolutionary responses to climate change. Science 284: 1943-1947.  Sinha, A.K. and Swaminathan, M.S. 1991. Long-term climate variability and changes.Journal of Indian Geographical Union 7(3): 125-134.
  22. 22. THANKS

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