Impact of global climate change on agriculture A Presentation by Mr Allah Dad Khan Consultant NRM IUCN Pa

1. 1

2. Climate Change a challenge for
Agriculture
Presentation By
Allah Dad Khan Visiting Professor
Agriculture Extension Agri
University Peshawar & Agri Advisor
to SDTV
And Dr Amanullah Junior Agronomy
Department
Agri University Peshawar
Dated 29th April 20122

3. Outline of
Presentation
„Climate Changes Global Over View
 Impact of Climate Change on Pakistan
 Adaption Agriculture Forest and water and
Irrigation Pakistan Initial Commission on
Climate Change
 Recommendations Views of Experts
3

4. Climate Changes
Global Over View
4

5. Climate
The appreciation of the effects of potential climatic changes is
essential. Many believe it is not until a certain threshold of
gravity of the modifications observed, that it will be convenient
or pressing to deal with these issues. Agriculture is one of
these fields that are carefully monitored.
Challenge
The impact of climate change presents a new hurdle in the
fight against extreme poverty and disease. Experts predict that
in many sub-Saharan African countries, climate change could
mean more frequent drought and floods, water scarcity, and
increased health challenges such as under-nutrition. These
new challenges will not only make achieving the Millennium
Development Goals more difficult, but could also threaten
some of the progress already made in fighting extreme poverty
and disease.
5

6. links between food, energy, climate and finance
1. Climate change is generated by emissions of greenhouse gases that in turn are
largely dependent on fossil energy use (mainly coal and oil) and by methane and
nitrous oxide emissions from agriculture;
2.Food production, distribution and consumption depend strongly on fossil fuel
energy consumption; high oil prices affect costs of production, processing,
transport, conservation; at the same time,agriculture’s important role in greenhouse
gas (GHG) production is increasing as rising incomes drive up demand for meat
proteins;
3. Climate change hits agricultural productivity directly through drought, floods,
pests, diseases and catastrophic events, as well as by temperature changes that
affect plant productivity;
4. In order to anticipate the foresighted peak in oil reserves, many governments are
subsidizing the production and trade of biofuels, so contributing to increased food
prices;
5.In order to diversify financial assets, investors are turning their attention to
agricultural commodities, amplifying price increases;
6.In order to safeguard their own domestic food security, countries with high
populations and/or low agricultural potential are competing with small farmers in
other countries for land and water by buying or contracting large tracts of land.
6

7. 7
Factors related to climate change
a) Indiscriminate use of natural resources
b) Global warming and meteorological observatories
c) Excessive and unplanned urbanization
d) Unplanned industrial growth
e) Imbalanced use of agricultural inputs and extreme farming
f) Population influx / pressure
g) Effect of industrial pollution son marine life
h) Flood , Drought and other natural disasters
i) Land erosion land sliding
ii) Pollution of rivers, streams by different means
iii) Waste water and waste crops residues
iv) Wastes of marbles specially in Warsak Peshawar Jehangira
Swbi

8. 8

9. Source: Stern Review
Critical Challenges: Climate change
9

10. Changes in Human and Natural Drivers of
climate Changes
1.„CO2 concentrations have increased from 280 ppm (since 1750) to
368 ppm in 2000 (31.4%) to 379 in 2005 (35.4% rise) and 396.18 ppm in
April 2012
2. CH4 concentrations have increased from a pre-industrial value of
about 715 ppb to 1732 ppb in early 1990s (142% rise) and is 1774ppb in
2005 (148% rise). The rise since 1990s is only 2.4%.
3.N2O concentrations have increased from a pre-industrial value of
about 270 ppb to 319 ppb in 2005 (18% rise). The growth rate has about
270 ppb to 319 ppb in 2005 (18% rise). The growth rate has been
approximately constant since 1980s. More than a third of all N2O
emissions are anthropogenic and are primarily due to agriculture
Temperature
1.11 of the last 12 years (1995-2006) except 1996 rank among the 12
warmest years in the instrumental record of global surface temperature
(since 1850).
2. Widespread changes in extreme temperatures have been observed
over the last 50 years. Cold days, cold nights and frost have become
less frequent, while hot days, hot nights, and heat waves have become
more frequent
10

11. Impact of Climate
changes
11

12. AGRICULTURE AND CLIMATE CHANGE:
VIRTUOUS CIRCLE
AGRICULTURE
CONTRIBUTES
TO FIGHTING CLIMATE
CHANGE
AGRICULTURAL
VULNERABILITY
IS REDUCED
AGRICULTURE BUSSINES EXPANSION
IS BASED ON SUSTAINABLE PRACTICES INCLUDING
FOREST AREA INCREMENT, PROTECTION AND RESTORATION
AGRICULTURE INCREASES:
AGRO ECOSYSTEMS AND FOREST ECOSYSTEMS
CLIMATE STABILIZATION
GLOBAL SERVICE
12

13. Impact of Climate Change in Agriculture
1.„Fourteen crops were considered for impact assessment (at
0.3ºC per decade). All the selected crops were found to be
suffering due to heat stress.
2. significant increase in growing degree days reduces the
growing season length for the crop.
3. 8% and 15% increase in GDD in 2020 and 2050.„With rainfall
decreases by 6%, net irrigation water requirements could
increase by 29%.
4. The areas suitable for agriculture, the length of growing
seasons and the yield potential of food staples are all projected
to decline.
5. Changing climate patterns will have important implications for
water availability.
6. Across the globe, sea levels could rise rapidly with
accelerated ice sheet disintegration.
7. Climate change will affect human health through variables
such as changes in temperature, exposure to natural disasters,
13

14. Impacts on Agriculture contd
9.Soils are sources of concern as well. The global crop land
availability is in decline as a result of population growth,
soil degradation, soil losses and soil sealing, shrinking
water resources, salt water intrusion into coastal aquifers,
as well as rising temperatures that are leading to falling
land productivity.
10.Loss of agri-biodiversity is associated with a range of
causal factors, including destruction and fragmentation of
habitats and the increasing use of land for non-agricultural
purposes, emissions, agricultural intensification, etc.
(Millenium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005)
11.Landslides tend to occur more frequently in areas with
clayey sub-soil, steep slopes, intense and abundant
precipitation and land abandonment, such as the Alpine
and the Mediterranean regions. Again this trend is
accelerated by the intensification of pasture use.
12.The contamination with pesticides in surface water,
ground water and partly in drinking water, in particular after
heavy rainfalls, is another problem area
13.Pandemic pest and diseases in animal and plant
14

15. AGRICULTURE AND CLIMATE CHANGE:
NEED TO CHANGE A PERFECT VICIOUS CIRCLE
AGRICULTURE
CONTRIBUTES
TO CLIMATE CHANGE
CLIMATE CHANGE
INCREASES
VULNERABILITY OF
AGRICULTURE
AGRICULTURAL FRONTIER
EXPANSION
IS BASED ON
DEFORESTATION
AGRICULTURE REDUCES
FOREST ECOSYSTEMS,
CLIMATE STABILIZATION,
GLOBAL SERVICE
15

16. Impact on Forest (Pakistan Initial Commission
on Climate Change
1.„Cold and temperate conifers will show a northward shift, pushing
against the cold conifer/mixed woodland,
2.„The increase in temperature scenario tended to increase Net Primary
Productivity in all biomes in the year 2020 and 2050. Under increase or
decrease in rainfall scenarios, the NPP of all biomes did not show much
increase in the years 2020 and 2050.
3. The average Net Primary Productivity (NPP) increase of
differentbiomes, over the base year of 1990 is estimated as 12% in the
year 2020 and 19% in the year 2040-50 (calculated) under the climate
change scenarios.
N.B. Pakistan’s Initial National Communication on Climate
Change(PINCCC)
16

17. Adaption Agriculture
Forest and water
suggestion by
Pakistan Initial
Commission on
Climate Change
(PICCC)
17

18. Adaptation in Agriculture
 Changes in Cropping Patterns
 „Sugar beet instead of sugarcane
 „Adjusting Cropping Pattern with Water Availability
 „More share of cropped area under oil seed crops
 „Improved Productivity and Production Management
 „Farm forestry
Adaptation in Forests
 Pest Control: The biological control of forest pests is a very important
adaptation measure.
 „Change in Species: Special attention shall have to be given to those
tree species which have poor seed production and dispersal, which
occupy ecological niches, have small populations and which occupy
ecological niches, have small populations and restricted ranges and
are peripheral.
 „Preservation of Watersheds: to control sediments towards
downstream
 „Control of Wastage: Use of Waste wood to produce composite wood
18

19. Adaptation: in Water Resources
 „Measures to Improve System Efficiency
 „Watershed Management
 „Urban Water Use
 „Water Quality and Environmental Protection
 „Flood Control
 „Weather Forecasting and Information Network for
 Farmers
 „Adaptations in Policy Planning
Adaptation in irrigation
 Effect of change in number of irrigations keeping total quantity of
irrigation water the same.
 „Effect of change in number of irrigations keeping the quantity of water
per irrigation the same.
 „Change in sowing window of crops.
 „Change in planting technique e.g. transplanting versus direct sowing
in the case of rice.
19

20. Recommendat
ion
20

21. Recommendation by experts
 Possibilities to reduce GHG emissions and to mitigate change
effects associated with “the agricultural sec to understand not only
the functioning of ecosystems but also their criticality.
 Therefore the systems approaches needed have to be highlighted to
further develop low external input concepts which are more
diversified and "greener" (the next generation of agricultural
research) paving the way for alternative models .
 To quickly improve the capacities of the agricultural knowledge
system/ information communication technology and to improve the
response capacity of the Agriculture , food security, Accordingly
restoring soil organic matter
 To encourage more systems oriented research to better understand
key issues in terms of functioning and criticality, better integration
and coordination of research efforts , Rain water harvesting, Drip
and Sprinkler irrigation system, efficient use of water , bio pesticides,
bio aab. New
21

22. Recommendation by experts Contd
 Strengthening of disaster management department and
coordination with nation building departments at provincial
level ,Updating meteorological Departments activities through
SUPARCO and satellite imaginary , warning for flood etc
 Agro/Biofuel 3rd generation ( Diesel Plant Jatropa). Bio-farm
waste need to be handled for energy generation such as bio-
gas plants/ mechanization plants, etc
 Agriculture policies , Agricultural models; trade policies; land
policies Should be framed inviting all stake holders at Federal
and provincial level addressing the climate change.
 The adoption of integrated crop management as the preferred
crop protection.
 Watershed management , range management , afforestation
22

23. Sprinkler Irrigation
 Sprinkler irrigation is a method of applying irrigation water which is
similar to natural rainfall.
23

24. Drip Irrigation
24

25. Energy Conservation and Laser Leveling
25

26. Solar Energy
26

27. Bio Gas
27

28. 28