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NEW THREATS OF GLOBAL WARMING ON INDIAN FARMERS
Seminar
on
SOUVIK GANGULY
M.Sc.(Agri.) Honours
Dept. of Agronomy
ICAR-JRF Scholar
U.A.S., Bengaluru
Presented by:
Sequence of Presentation:
• Introduction
• Scientific evidence of global warming
• Extreme events faced by India in recent past
• Impact of global warming on agricultural resources
• Effect of global warming on Indian agriculture
• Agro-techniques to mitigate global warming
• Conclusion
• Future line of work
2
What is Global Warming ?
• Global warming is the slow increase in the
average temperature of the earth’s
atmosphere
• An increased amount of the energy (heat)
striking the earth from the sun is being
trapped in the atmosphere and not radiated
out into space.
• The earth’s atmosphere has always acted
like a greenhouse to capture the sun’s heat,
ensuring that the earth has enjoyed
temperatures that permitted the emergence
of life forms as we know them, including
humans.
• Without our atmospheric greenhouse the
earth would be very cold.
Human enhanced green house effect: Global
Warming (Fig. 1)
3
Change in concentrations – GHG’s over period
• The concentration of CO2 is now 46% greater than the levels in the
atmosphere before the industrial revolution.
• Levels of Methane in the atmosphere is 1,859 parts per billion, has
increased 257% compared to pre-industrial revolution.
• Nitrous oxide concentration is about 122% compared pre-industrial
period.
Anon., 2017
4
Causes for Green House Gases (Global warming)
Greenhouse gases How it's produced Average lifetime in
the atmosphere
100-year global warming
potential
Carbon dioxide burning of fossil fuels (oil, natural gas, and coal),
solid waste, and trees and wood products.
Changes in land use also play a role. Deforestation
and soil degradation add carbon dioxide
Variable (condition
dependent)
1
Methane Emitted during the production and transport of oil
and natural gas as well as coal. Livestock and
agricultural practices (rice cultivation) and from
the anaerobic decay of organic waste in municipal
solid waste landfills
12.4 years 28–36
Nitrous oxide Emitted during agricultural ( N-ous fertilizer
application) and industrial activities, as well as
during combustion of fossil fuels and solid waste
121 years 265–298
Fluorinated gases
including CFCs
industrial processes and commercial and
household uses and do not occur naturally.
A few weeks to
thousands of years
Varies (the highest is sulphur
hexafluoride at 23,500)
Anon., 2007
Table: 1
5
Sources of Green house gases Contribution of different Green house gases
Sources and contribution of different Green house gases (GHG’s)
Anon.,2007
Fig.: 2 Fig.: 3
6
Warming Ocean Shrinking ice sheets Glacial retreat
Declining Arctic sea ice Extreme events Decreased snow cover
Scientific evidence of warming of the climate system is unequivocal
Anon., 2007
The planet's average surface temperature has increased about 1.62˚F (0.9˚C) and global sea level has risen about 8
inches since the late 19th century.
7
Global temperature rise Warming oceans Shrinking ice sheets
Glacial retreat Sea Level Rise Decreased snow cover
Scientific evidence of Global warming
Anon.,2007 8Fig: 4-9
• Heatwaves and droughts
• Changing ecosystems
• Pests and Diseases
• Reduced food security
Indirect effects of Global warming
9
States Events
Gujarat, Rajasthan, West Bengal, Manipur, Odisha,
Meghalaya and Jharkhand
Flood due to heavy rainfall
Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Madhya Pradesh ,
Maharashtra and Punjab
Rain accompanied with hailstorm
Bihar, Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, Gujrat, Tamil Nadu
and Kerala
Heavy rain due to cyclone
Bihar, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Haryana, Uttar
Pradesh, Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh , Odisha,
Telangana, Jharkhand, Rajasthan and Uttarakhand
Drought
Impact of global warming in Indian subcontinent
Anon., 2015
Table: 2
10
Cyclone Proneness Flood Proneness
Cyclone and flood prone areas in India
Pathak et al.,2015 11
Fig.: 10 Fig.: 11
Name Year Landfall Remarks
Cyclone GAJA November 16, 2018 Near Vedaranyam in
Nagapattinam of Tamil
Nadu
It damaged banana plants on 20,000 acres of
land
500 crore loss to farmers
It damaged 18000 hectare loss of coconut
trees
At least 70,000 coconut farmers have been
directly affected
Cyclone TITLI October 11, 2018 Balasore (Odisha)
& Srilkakulam and Vizag
(Andhra Pradesh or Coastal
Andhra)
The cyclone has uprooted more than 4.5 lakh
coconut trees in the district of Srikakulam.
It has uprooted more than 4.5 lakh coconut
trees
Kerala Flood August 9, 2018 Entire Kerala It caused heavy loss to Kerala’s agriculture and
dairy sector
Huge loss of rice cultivation(25,934 hectares)
Caused one-fifth of the coffee production to
be wiped out.
Standing crops cultivated on 56439.19
hectares are already destroyed.
Extreme events faced by India in recent past
Anon., 2018
Table: 3
12
Name Year Landfall Remarks
Bihar flood August, 2017 Bihar State Damage to the maize crop in the riverside areas
Much impact on standing paddy, pulses and
sugarcane crops
Gujarat flood July, 2017 Gujarat and its surroundings About 6.44 lakh farmers from 17 districts were
affected
Indian heat wave &
drought
May, 2015 AP, Telangana, Odisha,
West Bengal
About 10.98 lakh hectares of agricultural land of
4,333 villages was affected
crop loss stands at Rs 867 crore
Uttarakhand heavy
rain and cloudbursts
June, 2013 Uttaranchal or Uttarakhand,
North UP
Over 10,336 hectares of agricultural land
destroyed
Production of kharif crops, mainly paddy and
soybean was greatly affected
loss of Rs 30 crore due to decline in rice
production
Extreme events faced by India in recent past
Anon., 2017
Table: 4
13
Cyclone GAJA Cyclone TITLI KERALA Flood
14
CROP DAMAGE ( A case study on cyclone Titli)
TOTAL AGRICULTURE DAMAGE
IN SRIKAKULAM-164437 ha
• Sugarcane : 442 ha
• Paddy: 1,59,524 ha
• Cotton: 2,321 ha
• Maize: 2,150 ha
TOTAL AGRICULTURAL DAMAGE IN
VIZIANAGARAM- 996.9 ha
• Paddy : 628.7 ha
• Sugarcane: 143.2 ha
• Cotton: 122.6 ha
• Maize: 102.4 ha
TOTAL HORTICULTURE DAMAGE
IN SRIKAKULAM- 32914 ha
• Banana : 6,262 ha
• Papaya : 3,852 ha
• Vegetable : 1,200 ha
• Cashew : 9,600 ha
• Coconut : 1,20,00 ha
TOTAL HORTICULTURAL DAMAGE
IN VIZIANAGARAM- 3,610 ha
• Banana: 3,610 ha
Anon., 2018
15
Impact of Global Warming on Agricultural Resources
Effect of elevated CO2 on plant
• Growth of C3 plant will be more than C4 plant under elevated CO2
condition. Porter et al., 1993 reported that C3 plants growth (41%)
was higher than C4 (22%) under increased CO2 level.
• Increase photosynthesis rate and decrease in transpiration rates
which is related to stomata closure.
• Increase in leaf non structural carbohydrates (sugars and starches) per
unit leaf area on average by 30–40% under FACE elevated CO2 .
• Decrease in leaf nitrogen concentrations average by 13%.
• Minerals including calcium, magnesium and phosphorus may also be
decreased.
• Change in protein concentration (Loladze 2002).
17
Effect of elevated CO2 on soil nutrient availability
Nutrient Ambient CO2 (micro g /cm2/ d) Elevated CO2 (micro g /cm2/ d)
NH4-N(PRS Probes) 0.28 ± 0.03 0.22 ± 0.02*
NO3-N(PRS Probes) 0.18 ± 0.03 0.09 ± 0.02**
NH4-N & NO3-N(PRS Probes) 0.46 ± 0.05 0.32 ± 0.02**
Ortho-P(PRS Probes) 0.37 ± 0.10 0.48 ± 0.13
Ortho-P(Anion Membrane) 1.13 ± 0.31 5.17 ± 0.84***
*significant at 0.10 probability(student t test)
**significant at 0.05 probability(student t test)
***significant at 0.01 probability(student t test)
Soil Depth: 0-30 cm
Johnson et al. (1995)Merritt Island
Table: 5
18
PRS: Plant Root Simulator
CO2 saturation point C3 vs C4 Light saturation point C3 vs C4
CO2 saturation vs Light saturation in C3 and C4 plants
Walter et al., 1995
19
Fig.: 12 Fig.: 13
Species In competition with PRY at 350 ppm PRY at 700 ppm
Millet Soybean 0.902 0.781
Millet Pigweed 0.901 0.927
Millet Lambsqurater 0.984 0.723
Soybean Millet 0.794 0.872
Soybean Pigweed 0.717 0.793
Soybean Lambsqurater 0.819 0.573
Pigweed Millet 0.807 0.723
Pigweed Soybean 0.831 0.728
Pigweed Lambsqurater 0.835 0.726
Lambsqurater Millet 0.819 0.841
Lambsqurater Soybean 0.987 0.844
Lambsqurater Pigweed 0.849 0.904
Lamerd region, USA Hamid Reza Miri et al.(2012)
Plant Relative Yield (PRY) for Millet, Soybean, Pigweed and Lambsqurater (based on
shoot DW in CO2) concentration of 350 and 700 ppm
Table: 6
20
Hamid Reza Miri et al.(2012)Lamerd region, USA
Effect of CO2 elevation on species stem dry weight
P,G,A and C showed Panicum, Glycine, Amaranthus and Chenopodium respectively
LSD 5%=0.610
Fig.: 14
21
Chamber Soil Water Treatment Total vegetative dry
matter (g m−2)
Grain yield (g m−2)
Normal temperature Normal precipitation 3739.5 1573.5
Normal temperature 0.75 Normal precipitation 3000.7 707.0
Normal temperature 1.25 Normal precipitation 2708.1 944.1
Extreme temperature Normal precipitation 1744.8 823.4
Extreme temperature 0.75 Normal precipitation 1282.6 805.6
Extreme temperature 1.25 Normal precipitation 1081.8 353.9
Total Vegetative biomass and grain weights for maize exposed to temperature
extremes and soil water differences in a controlled environment chamber
Ames, Iowa Hatfield et al.(2015)
Table: 7
22
Replicate Parameter Normal temperatures Warm temperatures
1 Total vegetative biomass
(g m−2)
920.3 1188.0
1 Grain yield (g m−2) 1870.0 213.9
2 Total vegetative biomass
(g m−2)
1007.0 1122.1
2 Grain yield (g m−2) 471.2 59.9
Total vegetative biomass and grain yield for Maize hybrid RX730 grown under normal and
warm temperatures for two experimental replicates
Ames, Iowa Hatfield et al.(2015)
Table: 8
23
Effect of Elevated Atmospheric CO2 and Temperature on the Disease Severity of
Rocket Plants Caused by Fusarium Wilt under Phytotron Conditions
Ireland Walter et al.(2015)
Table: 9
24
Treatment Combinations Plant Height (cm) No. of tillers/plant Leaf thickness(mg/cm2)
V1T1 38.27 7.2 4.97
V1T2 54.40 8.9 4.51
V1T3 30.66 7.9 4.67
V2T1 36.70 7.8 4.30
V2T2 53.87 11.2 4.36
V2T3 48.36 6.8 4.04
CD 4.84 1.3 NS
Mean plant height (cm), No. of tillers/plant , Leaf thickness (mg/ cm2) of two
rice varieties under different UV-B levels (tillering stage)
KAU,INDIA Sahebrao (2015)
Treatments:
T1: Natural Solar UV-B condition ( where crops are exposed to 100% natural solar spectrum radiation)
T2: Reduced UV-B radiation using UV-B filters (which measures UV-B as zero)
T3: 85% ambient radiation including UV-B in poly house + UV-B supplemented with UV-B lamps
Table: 10
25
Treatment Combinations Plant Height (cm) No. of tillers/plant Leaf thickness(mg/cm2)
V1T1 78.36 27.3 5.20
V1T2 105.29 25.9 4.53
V1T3 100.26 24.1 4.27
V2T1 70.0 23.6 5.10
V2T2 91.93 24.1 4.54
V2T3 75.71 20.7 4.24
CD NS NS NS
Sahebrao (2015)KAU,INDIA
Mean plant height (cm), No. of tillers/plant , Leaf thickness (mg/ cm2) of two rice
varieties under different UV-B levels (Flowering stage)
Treatments:
T1: Natural Solar UV-B condition ( where crops are exposed to 100% natural solar spectrum radiation)
T2: Reduced UV-B radiation using UV-B filters (which measures UV-B as zero)
T3: 85% ambient radiation including UV-B in poly house + UV-B supplemented with UV-B lamps
Table: 11
26
The Effect of Simulated Acid Rain on Plant Growth Component of Cowpea (Vigna unguiculata L.)
pH of SAR Plant height (cm) Leaf area (cm) Fresh weight (g)
7.0 (Control) 54.74 ± 2.34 a 38.14 ± 2.27 a 192.11 ± 0.56 a
6.0 46.12 ± 2.06 b 26.08 ± 1.17 b 130.34 ± 0.44 b
5.0 40.10 ± 1.60 b 20.54 ± 1.08 b 122.12 ± 0.20 c
4.0 30.33 ± 1.48 b 15.20 ± 0.20b 94.21 ± 0.12 d
3.0 22.34 ± 0.31 c 11.26 ± 0.18c 64 .10 ± 0.07e
2.0 10.01 ± 0.10 d 06.32 ± 0.04c 42.23 ± 0.04 f
Odiyi & Eniola (2014)Nigeria
Table: 12
27
1.In India, it is observed that the annual mean temperature is
increasing at the rate of 0.42°C since 1980.
2.Change in S W and N E monsoon pattern has increased the
chance of drought and flood.
• Increasing trend in rainfall: west coast, north Andhra
Pradesh and North West India
• Decreasing trend in rainfall: parts of Gujarat, Madhya
Pradesh and adjoining area, Kerala and northeast India
3.Extreme maximum and minimum temperature showed an
increasing trend in the southern part whereas decreasing
trend in the northern part of India.
4.Ratio of severe cyclones to cyclones is increasing in the
Bay of Bengal compared to Arabian sea.
Pathak et al., 2015 28
Fig.: 15
Anon., 2017
Fig. No: 16
29
Normal Annual Rainfall Change in Annual Rainfall
Change in annual rainfall pattern due to Global Warming
Pathak et al.,2015 30
Fig.: 17 Fig.: 18
Drought Proneness Change in drought Proneness
Change in drought occurrence due to Global Warming
Pathak et al.,2015 31
Fig.: 19 Fig.: 20
Increasing temperature trend in India due to global warming
In India, from 1901-2010 about 17% of the years were reported as
drought years, which resulted in severe impacts on agriculture, water
resources, food security, economy and social life in the country.
Overall temperature rise is likely to be much higher during winter
(rabi) rather than in rainy season (kharif). Moreover, it is predicted
that the mean temperature in India will rise by 0.4-2.0°C in Kharif and
1.1-4.5°C in Rabi by 2070.
32
• By the 2040’s India will see a significant reduction in crop yields
because of extreme heat.
• Reduced water availability due to changes in precipitation levels and
falling groundwater tables are likely to aggravate the situation in
India.
• In India, more than 60% of the crop area is rainfed, making it highly
vulnerable to climate induced changes in precipitation patterns.
• It is estimated that by the 2050’s, water for agricultural production in
the river basis of the Indus, Ganges and Brahmaputra will reduce
further and may impact food adequacy for some 63 million people.
Effect of increasing temperature on Indian agriculture
33
Effect of temperature rise on rice production in India
It is reported that increase in temperature beyond critical limits may
contribute to reduce rice yield in future . Thus variation in north–east
monsoon and rise in temperature may have impact on rice production.
Effect of temperature rise on wheat production in India
It is reported since past few years that the productivity of wheat is
declining gradually even in Punjab and Haryana-the granary of the
Nation.
34
Temperature Trend (Quadratic Fit) Precipitation Trend (Cubic Fit)
Change in Temperature and Precipitation trend in India due to Global Warming
Anon., 2011
Fig. No.: 21 Fig. No.: 22
35
Future productivity scenario of different crops in India
• By 2030, rice and wheat are likely to see about 6-10 per cent
decrease in yields.
• Crops like potatoes, soybean, chickpea and mustard, on which
climate change will have a neutral or positive impact.
• Soybean and gram are likely to benefit from higher level of CO2 in
atmosphere, which helps in CO2 fertilisation. But the positive effects
are unlikely to last more than 10-15 years
• Mustard will experience a neutral-to-positive impact in Northern
India, especially in Punjab and Haryana, where winter temperature is
very low.
• Potato production will be positively impacted by elevated CO2
concentration and yield will increase by 11.12 per cent at elevated
CO2 of 550 PPM and 1°C rise in temperature.
• Kharif crops will be affected by rainfall variability, while rabi crops by
minimum temperature.
• Wheat is likely to be negatively impacted in rabi season due to
terminal heat stress with 1°C rise in temperature results in loss of 4
metric tonnes (MT) of wheat.
• Similarly, legumes are going to be benefitted because of elevated
level of atmospheric CO2.
36Anon., 2015
Crops Td , P (1) T , Pd (2) Td , Pd (3)
Cotton -0.01333
(0.06010)
0.00990
(0.03349)
-0.00343
(0.06688)
Sorghum -0.00104
(0.00508)
0.00569
(0.00664)
0.00465
(0.00972)
Rice 0.00024
(0.00232)
-0.00197
(0.00378)
-0.00173
(0.00465)
Sugarcane 0.00368
(0.00348)
0.00729∗
(0.00411)
0.01098∗∗
(0.00555)
Wheat -0.00004
(0.00127)
0.00021
(0.00385)
0.00017
(0.00399)
Values shown are percentage changes in yield when de-trended climate data are fitted to the yield model.
Td and Pd refer to de-trended data for temperature and precipitation, respectively.
∗ p < 0.1, ∗∗ p < 0.05, ∗∗∗ p < 0.01
Yield prediction model of different crops
Moorthy and Buermann (2012)India
Table: 13
37
Treatments Seedling
stage (d)
Tillering
Stage (d)
Elongation
stage (d)
Heading stage
(d)
Filling stage
(d)
Maturation
stage (d)
Whole growth
stage (d)
CK 20.7 16.0 26.3 12.0 14.0 30.0 119.0
M 18.7 13.0 23.0 11.0 10.3 28.7 104.7
H 17.3 11.0 20.3 8.7 9.7 25.7 92.7
Variability
between M
& CK(%)
(-)9.7 (-)18.8 (-)12.7 (-)8.3 (-)26.2 (-)4.4 (-)12.0
Variability
between H
& CK(%)
(-)16.1 (-)31.3 (-)22.8 (-)27.8 (-)31.0 (-)14.4 (-)22.1
Effects of increased levels of atmospheric CO2 and high temperatures on rice growth
The number of days in this table represents the days of different growth stages after rice transplanting; minus
represents shortening; CK stands for Control treatment (400 µmol/mol+ 0˚C); M stands for 550 µmol/mol+ 2 ˚C ; H
stands for 650 µmol/mol+ 4 ˚C
China Shuo Liu et al.,2017
Table: 14
38
Treatment Stover yield (t/ha)
[Mean value]
Grain yield(t/ha)
[Mean]
Biological yield(t/ha)
[Mean]
Harvest Index
T1 9.38 4.44 13.82 0.32
T2 7.00 3.78 10.78 0.35
T3 6.70 3.58 10.27 0.35
T4 14.35 7.20 21.55 0.34
T5 12.10 6.47 18.57 0.35
T6 8.26 4.46 12.72 0.35
SEM± - 0.01 0.01 -
LSD (P=0.05) 0.01 0.03 0.02 -
Effect of elevated atmospheric CO2 and temperature on Stover yield, grain yield,
biological yield and harvest index of maize
Abebe et al. (2015)IARI, New Delhi
T1: Ambient temp and ambient CO2, T2: Ambient temp and 1.5˚C & ambient CO2, T3: Ambient temp and 3.0˚C &
ambient CO2, T4: Ambient temp and elevated CO2 (550 ± 20ppm), T5: Ambient temp and 1.5˚C & elevated CO2 (550
± 20ppm), T6: Ambient temp and 3.0˚C & elevated CO2 (550 ± 20ppm)
Table: 15
39
Impact of Climate Change on Livestock Production
WBUAFS (2013) 40
Species Villous Height Crypt Depth References
Pigs Decreased Decreased Yu et al. (2010)
Pigs Decreased Decreased Liu et al. (2009)
Broilers No change No change Quinteiro-Filho et al. (2010)
Broilers No change Decrease Burkholder et al. (2008)
Broilers Decrease - Garriga et al. (2006)
Quail Decrease Decrease Sandkc et al. (2004)
Fowl Decrease - Mitchell and Carlisle (1992)
Effects of heat stress on intestinal morphology measures in various species
WBUAFS (2013)
Table: 16
41
Effect Sea level rise on India
• IPCC (2007) estimated a maximum
possible sea-level rise of about
59 cm, more recent estimates
show a global average rise of ≥1 m
by the 2100 AD.
• Cities like Mumbai, Chennai,
Kolkata are in danger
• Inundation of sea water will
increase the salinity effect in soil
• It will also reduce the quality of
ground water
• Water is enough but not usable
42
Characteristics of Indian
Farmers
• India mostly is a agriculture dependent
country.
• Indian agriculture is a subsistence one
(grow to eat)
• Most of the Indian farmers are
marginal farmers as they having less
than 1 ha of land and economically
poor.
• Most of the farmers depend on rainfed
cultivation of crops.
Pathak et al., 2015
43
Fig.: 23
Economic loss of Indian farmers
• The Economic Survey 2018 claims that
global warming could reduce farmers’
incomes by up to 25% annually.
• Farm income losses of 15% to 18% on
average and 20 to 25% in unirrigated
areas.
• A loss of Rs 3,600 per year for an average
Indian farmer at current income levels.
• Global warming has about 4-9 per cent
impact on agriculture each year. As
agriculture contributes 15 per cent to
India’s GDP, global warming presumably
causes about 1.5 per cent loss in GDP.
Anon., 2017 44
Fig.: 24
Suicides of Indian farmers linked to climate change
• 60,000 Indian farmers and farm
workers over the past three
decades committed suicide.
• One drought-hit state like
Maharashtra, reported 852 farmer
suicides in the first four months of
this year.
• For Karnataka, the number is
around 450.
Anon., 2017
45
Fig.: 25
Agro-techniques to mitigate global warming
a) Crop Management:
1. Impose practices that reduce greenhouse gas emissions (DSR,SRI)
2. Soil Carbon sequestration practices
3. Cultivation of cover crops to reduce N2O emission
b) Nutrient Management:
1. Adoption of Site Specific Nutrient Management (SSNM)
2 .Use of slow release nitrogen fertilizers
3. Use of LCC
4. Use of organic products
c) Crop residue management and carbon sequestration
d) Conservation agriculture
e) Contingency crop planning (CRIDA practices)
46
Practice MT/Ha/Year MT/Acre/Year Ton/Acre/Year Tons/Acre/10Year
CRM(Crop Residue
Management)
0.30 - 0.70 0.12-0.28 0.13 - 0.31 1.34 - 3.12
Conservation Tillage 0.24 - 0.40 0.10-0.16 0.11 - 0.18 1.07 - 1.78
Fertilizer Management 0.05 - 0.15 0.02-0.06 0.02 - 0.07 0.22 - 0.67
Rotation with winter
cover
0.10 - 0.30 0.04-0.12 0.04 - 0.13 0.45 - 1.34
Summer Fallow
Elimination
0.10 - 0.30 0.04-0.12 0.04 - 0.13 0.45 - 1.34
Potential Soil Sequestration Rates for Carbon
Lal et al., 2005U.S.A.
Table: 17
47
Short range weather forecasting
Medium range weather forecasting
Long range weather forecasting
Agromet Advisory Service (AAS)
Farmers Weather Bulletin (FWB)
Weather Service Facilities
48
Table: 18
Groups of
Farmers
Yield (t/ha) Cost of
Production
(Rs./ha)
Gross
income
(Rs./ha)
% increase in
income
Reduced
cost(Rs./ha)
Additional
Cost (Rs./ha)
C:B ratio
Non-AAS
farmers
28.50 1,15,000 6,27,000 - - - 5.45
AAS farmers 35.50 95,000 8,75,000 149 20,000 2,68,000 9.21
Impact of weather based agro advisory services in grapes during 2015-16, 2016-17 and 2017-18 (average of
three years)
AICRPAM, Bengaluru Shivaramu et al.(2018)
49
• Rejuvenation of farming in cyclone and flood prone coastal agroecosystems
through land shaping.
• Community paddy nursery as a contingency measure for delayed planting.
• Drum seeding of rice for water saving and timeliness in planting.
• Drought tolerant paddy cultivars to tackle deficit rainfall situations.
• Short duration for delayed monsoon / deficit rainfall districts
• Crop diversification for livelihood security & resilience to climate variability.
• Flood tolerant varieties impart resilience to farmers in flood-prone areas.
• Improving the resilience of poor farmers reclaiming cultivable wastelands.
• Jalkund - low cost rainwater harvesting structures
• Captive rearing of fish seed - a livelihood opportunity in flood-prone areas.
• Soil and water conservation measures
50
Conclusion
• In India, occurrence of S W & N E monsoon has changed due to global
warming which leads to erratic rainfall pattern throughout the
country.
• Growth of C3 plant (41%) will be more than C4 plant (22%) under
elevated CO2 condition.
• Crops like rice, wheat, maize and sorghum will react negatively to
global warming, on the other hand potato, onion, mustard, and
soybean react neutral or positively.
• Farm income losses of 15% to 18% on average and 20 to 25% in
unirrigated areas.
51
Future line of work
• Strategic breeding for ideotypes and new varieties to respond to
more CO2 concentrations and temperature rises.
• Data base for new crop introduction suited to higher temperature and
drought situations.
• Harnessing moisture from soil and atmosphere towards crop
rationing should also be a priority in research.
52
“When it comes to global warming, everybody wants to change the world
but nobody wants to change himself ”
Thank you for your patience…..
53

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NEW THREATS OF GLOBAL WARMING ON INDIAN FARMERS

  • 1. NEW THREATS OF GLOBAL WARMING ON INDIAN FARMERS Seminar on SOUVIK GANGULY M.Sc.(Agri.) Honours Dept. of Agronomy ICAR-JRF Scholar U.A.S., Bengaluru Presented by:
  • 2. Sequence of Presentation: • Introduction • Scientific evidence of global warming • Extreme events faced by India in recent past • Impact of global warming on agricultural resources • Effect of global warming on Indian agriculture • Agro-techniques to mitigate global warming • Conclusion • Future line of work 2
  • 3. What is Global Warming ? • Global warming is the slow increase in the average temperature of the earth’s atmosphere • An increased amount of the energy (heat) striking the earth from the sun is being trapped in the atmosphere and not radiated out into space. • The earth’s atmosphere has always acted like a greenhouse to capture the sun’s heat, ensuring that the earth has enjoyed temperatures that permitted the emergence of life forms as we know them, including humans. • Without our atmospheric greenhouse the earth would be very cold. Human enhanced green house effect: Global Warming (Fig. 1) 3
  • 4. Change in concentrations – GHG’s over period • The concentration of CO2 is now 46% greater than the levels in the atmosphere before the industrial revolution. • Levels of Methane in the atmosphere is 1,859 parts per billion, has increased 257% compared to pre-industrial revolution. • Nitrous oxide concentration is about 122% compared pre-industrial period. Anon., 2017 4
  • 5. Causes for Green House Gases (Global warming) Greenhouse gases How it's produced Average lifetime in the atmosphere 100-year global warming potential Carbon dioxide burning of fossil fuels (oil, natural gas, and coal), solid waste, and trees and wood products. Changes in land use also play a role. Deforestation and soil degradation add carbon dioxide Variable (condition dependent) 1 Methane Emitted during the production and transport of oil and natural gas as well as coal. Livestock and agricultural practices (rice cultivation) and from the anaerobic decay of organic waste in municipal solid waste landfills 12.4 years 28–36 Nitrous oxide Emitted during agricultural ( N-ous fertilizer application) and industrial activities, as well as during combustion of fossil fuels and solid waste 121 years 265–298 Fluorinated gases including CFCs industrial processes and commercial and household uses and do not occur naturally. A few weeks to thousands of years Varies (the highest is sulphur hexafluoride at 23,500) Anon., 2007 Table: 1 5
  • 6. Sources of Green house gases Contribution of different Green house gases Sources and contribution of different Green house gases (GHG’s) Anon.,2007 Fig.: 2 Fig.: 3 6
  • 7. Warming Ocean Shrinking ice sheets Glacial retreat Declining Arctic sea ice Extreme events Decreased snow cover Scientific evidence of warming of the climate system is unequivocal Anon., 2007 The planet's average surface temperature has increased about 1.62˚F (0.9˚C) and global sea level has risen about 8 inches since the late 19th century. 7
  • 8. Global temperature rise Warming oceans Shrinking ice sheets Glacial retreat Sea Level Rise Decreased snow cover Scientific evidence of Global warming Anon.,2007 8Fig: 4-9
  • 9. • Heatwaves and droughts • Changing ecosystems • Pests and Diseases • Reduced food security Indirect effects of Global warming 9
  • 10. States Events Gujarat, Rajasthan, West Bengal, Manipur, Odisha, Meghalaya and Jharkhand Flood due to heavy rainfall Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Madhya Pradesh , Maharashtra and Punjab Rain accompanied with hailstorm Bihar, Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, Gujrat, Tamil Nadu and Kerala Heavy rain due to cyclone Bihar, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh , Odisha, Telangana, Jharkhand, Rajasthan and Uttarakhand Drought Impact of global warming in Indian subcontinent Anon., 2015 Table: 2 10
  • 11. Cyclone Proneness Flood Proneness Cyclone and flood prone areas in India Pathak et al.,2015 11 Fig.: 10 Fig.: 11
  • 12. Name Year Landfall Remarks Cyclone GAJA November 16, 2018 Near Vedaranyam in Nagapattinam of Tamil Nadu It damaged banana plants on 20,000 acres of land 500 crore loss to farmers It damaged 18000 hectare loss of coconut trees At least 70,000 coconut farmers have been directly affected Cyclone TITLI October 11, 2018 Balasore (Odisha) & Srilkakulam and Vizag (Andhra Pradesh or Coastal Andhra) The cyclone has uprooted more than 4.5 lakh coconut trees in the district of Srikakulam. It has uprooted more than 4.5 lakh coconut trees Kerala Flood August 9, 2018 Entire Kerala It caused heavy loss to Kerala’s agriculture and dairy sector Huge loss of rice cultivation(25,934 hectares) Caused one-fifth of the coffee production to be wiped out. Standing crops cultivated on 56439.19 hectares are already destroyed. Extreme events faced by India in recent past Anon., 2018 Table: 3 12
  • 13. Name Year Landfall Remarks Bihar flood August, 2017 Bihar State Damage to the maize crop in the riverside areas Much impact on standing paddy, pulses and sugarcane crops Gujarat flood July, 2017 Gujarat and its surroundings About 6.44 lakh farmers from 17 districts were affected Indian heat wave & drought May, 2015 AP, Telangana, Odisha, West Bengal About 10.98 lakh hectares of agricultural land of 4,333 villages was affected crop loss stands at Rs 867 crore Uttarakhand heavy rain and cloudbursts June, 2013 Uttaranchal or Uttarakhand, North UP Over 10,336 hectares of agricultural land destroyed Production of kharif crops, mainly paddy and soybean was greatly affected loss of Rs 30 crore due to decline in rice production Extreme events faced by India in recent past Anon., 2017 Table: 4 13
  • 14. Cyclone GAJA Cyclone TITLI KERALA Flood 14
  • 15. CROP DAMAGE ( A case study on cyclone Titli) TOTAL AGRICULTURE DAMAGE IN SRIKAKULAM-164437 ha • Sugarcane : 442 ha • Paddy: 1,59,524 ha • Cotton: 2,321 ha • Maize: 2,150 ha TOTAL AGRICULTURAL DAMAGE IN VIZIANAGARAM- 996.9 ha • Paddy : 628.7 ha • Sugarcane: 143.2 ha • Cotton: 122.6 ha • Maize: 102.4 ha TOTAL HORTICULTURE DAMAGE IN SRIKAKULAM- 32914 ha • Banana : 6,262 ha • Papaya : 3,852 ha • Vegetable : 1,200 ha • Cashew : 9,600 ha • Coconut : 1,20,00 ha TOTAL HORTICULTURAL DAMAGE IN VIZIANAGARAM- 3,610 ha • Banana: 3,610 ha Anon., 2018 15
  • 16. Impact of Global Warming on Agricultural Resources
  • 17. Effect of elevated CO2 on plant • Growth of C3 plant will be more than C4 plant under elevated CO2 condition. Porter et al., 1993 reported that C3 plants growth (41%) was higher than C4 (22%) under increased CO2 level. • Increase photosynthesis rate and decrease in transpiration rates which is related to stomata closure. • Increase in leaf non structural carbohydrates (sugars and starches) per unit leaf area on average by 30–40% under FACE elevated CO2 . • Decrease in leaf nitrogen concentrations average by 13%. • Minerals including calcium, magnesium and phosphorus may also be decreased. • Change in protein concentration (Loladze 2002). 17
  • 18. Effect of elevated CO2 on soil nutrient availability Nutrient Ambient CO2 (micro g /cm2/ d) Elevated CO2 (micro g /cm2/ d) NH4-N(PRS Probes) 0.28 ± 0.03 0.22 ± 0.02* NO3-N(PRS Probes) 0.18 ± 0.03 0.09 ± 0.02** NH4-N & NO3-N(PRS Probes) 0.46 ± 0.05 0.32 ± 0.02** Ortho-P(PRS Probes) 0.37 ± 0.10 0.48 ± 0.13 Ortho-P(Anion Membrane) 1.13 ± 0.31 5.17 ± 0.84*** *significant at 0.10 probability(student t test) **significant at 0.05 probability(student t test) ***significant at 0.01 probability(student t test) Soil Depth: 0-30 cm Johnson et al. (1995)Merritt Island Table: 5 18 PRS: Plant Root Simulator
  • 19. CO2 saturation point C3 vs C4 Light saturation point C3 vs C4 CO2 saturation vs Light saturation in C3 and C4 plants Walter et al., 1995 19 Fig.: 12 Fig.: 13
  • 20. Species In competition with PRY at 350 ppm PRY at 700 ppm Millet Soybean 0.902 0.781 Millet Pigweed 0.901 0.927 Millet Lambsqurater 0.984 0.723 Soybean Millet 0.794 0.872 Soybean Pigweed 0.717 0.793 Soybean Lambsqurater 0.819 0.573 Pigweed Millet 0.807 0.723 Pigweed Soybean 0.831 0.728 Pigweed Lambsqurater 0.835 0.726 Lambsqurater Millet 0.819 0.841 Lambsqurater Soybean 0.987 0.844 Lambsqurater Pigweed 0.849 0.904 Lamerd region, USA Hamid Reza Miri et al.(2012) Plant Relative Yield (PRY) for Millet, Soybean, Pigweed and Lambsqurater (based on shoot DW in CO2) concentration of 350 and 700 ppm Table: 6 20
  • 21. Hamid Reza Miri et al.(2012)Lamerd region, USA Effect of CO2 elevation on species stem dry weight P,G,A and C showed Panicum, Glycine, Amaranthus and Chenopodium respectively LSD 5%=0.610 Fig.: 14 21
  • 22. Chamber Soil Water Treatment Total vegetative dry matter (g m−2) Grain yield (g m−2) Normal temperature Normal precipitation 3739.5 1573.5 Normal temperature 0.75 Normal precipitation 3000.7 707.0 Normal temperature 1.25 Normal precipitation 2708.1 944.1 Extreme temperature Normal precipitation 1744.8 823.4 Extreme temperature 0.75 Normal precipitation 1282.6 805.6 Extreme temperature 1.25 Normal precipitation 1081.8 353.9 Total Vegetative biomass and grain weights for maize exposed to temperature extremes and soil water differences in a controlled environment chamber Ames, Iowa Hatfield et al.(2015) Table: 7 22
  • 23. Replicate Parameter Normal temperatures Warm temperatures 1 Total vegetative biomass (g m−2) 920.3 1188.0 1 Grain yield (g m−2) 1870.0 213.9 2 Total vegetative biomass (g m−2) 1007.0 1122.1 2 Grain yield (g m−2) 471.2 59.9 Total vegetative biomass and grain yield for Maize hybrid RX730 grown under normal and warm temperatures for two experimental replicates Ames, Iowa Hatfield et al.(2015) Table: 8 23
  • 24. Effect of Elevated Atmospheric CO2 and Temperature on the Disease Severity of Rocket Plants Caused by Fusarium Wilt under Phytotron Conditions Ireland Walter et al.(2015) Table: 9 24
  • 25. Treatment Combinations Plant Height (cm) No. of tillers/plant Leaf thickness(mg/cm2) V1T1 38.27 7.2 4.97 V1T2 54.40 8.9 4.51 V1T3 30.66 7.9 4.67 V2T1 36.70 7.8 4.30 V2T2 53.87 11.2 4.36 V2T3 48.36 6.8 4.04 CD 4.84 1.3 NS Mean plant height (cm), No. of tillers/plant , Leaf thickness (mg/ cm2) of two rice varieties under different UV-B levels (tillering stage) KAU,INDIA Sahebrao (2015) Treatments: T1: Natural Solar UV-B condition ( where crops are exposed to 100% natural solar spectrum radiation) T2: Reduced UV-B radiation using UV-B filters (which measures UV-B as zero) T3: 85% ambient radiation including UV-B in poly house + UV-B supplemented with UV-B lamps Table: 10 25
  • 26. Treatment Combinations Plant Height (cm) No. of tillers/plant Leaf thickness(mg/cm2) V1T1 78.36 27.3 5.20 V1T2 105.29 25.9 4.53 V1T3 100.26 24.1 4.27 V2T1 70.0 23.6 5.10 V2T2 91.93 24.1 4.54 V2T3 75.71 20.7 4.24 CD NS NS NS Sahebrao (2015)KAU,INDIA Mean plant height (cm), No. of tillers/plant , Leaf thickness (mg/ cm2) of two rice varieties under different UV-B levels (Flowering stage) Treatments: T1: Natural Solar UV-B condition ( where crops are exposed to 100% natural solar spectrum radiation) T2: Reduced UV-B radiation using UV-B filters (which measures UV-B as zero) T3: 85% ambient radiation including UV-B in poly house + UV-B supplemented with UV-B lamps Table: 11 26
  • 27. The Effect of Simulated Acid Rain on Plant Growth Component of Cowpea (Vigna unguiculata L.) pH of SAR Plant height (cm) Leaf area (cm) Fresh weight (g) 7.0 (Control) 54.74 ± 2.34 a 38.14 ± 2.27 a 192.11 ± 0.56 a 6.0 46.12 ± 2.06 b 26.08 ± 1.17 b 130.34 ± 0.44 b 5.0 40.10 ± 1.60 b 20.54 ± 1.08 b 122.12 ± 0.20 c 4.0 30.33 ± 1.48 b 15.20 ± 0.20b 94.21 ± 0.12 d 3.0 22.34 ± 0.31 c 11.26 ± 0.18c 64 .10 ± 0.07e 2.0 10.01 ± 0.10 d 06.32 ± 0.04c 42.23 ± 0.04 f Odiyi & Eniola (2014)Nigeria Table: 12 27
  • 28. 1.In India, it is observed that the annual mean temperature is increasing at the rate of 0.42°C since 1980. 2.Change in S W and N E monsoon pattern has increased the chance of drought and flood. • Increasing trend in rainfall: west coast, north Andhra Pradesh and North West India • Decreasing trend in rainfall: parts of Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and adjoining area, Kerala and northeast India 3.Extreme maximum and minimum temperature showed an increasing trend in the southern part whereas decreasing trend in the northern part of India. 4.Ratio of severe cyclones to cyclones is increasing in the Bay of Bengal compared to Arabian sea. Pathak et al., 2015 28 Fig.: 15
  • 30. Normal Annual Rainfall Change in Annual Rainfall Change in annual rainfall pattern due to Global Warming Pathak et al.,2015 30 Fig.: 17 Fig.: 18
  • 31. Drought Proneness Change in drought Proneness Change in drought occurrence due to Global Warming Pathak et al.,2015 31 Fig.: 19 Fig.: 20
  • 32. Increasing temperature trend in India due to global warming In India, from 1901-2010 about 17% of the years were reported as drought years, which resulted in severe impacts on agriculture, water resources, food security, economy and social life in the country. Overall temperature rise is likely to be much higher during winter (rabi) rather than in rainy season (kharif). Moreover, it is predicted that the mean temperature in India will rise by 0.4-2.0°C in Kharif and 1.1-4.5°C in Rabi by 2070. 32
  • 33. • By the 2040’s India will see a significant reduction in crop yields because of extreme heat. • Reduced water availability due to changes in precipitation levels and falling groundwater tables are likely to aggravate the situation in India. • In India, more than 60% of the crop area is rainfed, making it highly vulnerable to climate induced changes in precipitation patterns. • It is estimated that by the 2050’s, water for agricultural production in the river basis of the Indus, Ganges and Brahmaputra will reduce further and may impact food adequacy for some 63 million people. Effect of increasing temperature on Indian agriculture 33
  • 34. Effect of temperature rise on rice production in India It is reported that increase in temperature beyond critical limits may contribute to reduce rice yield in future . Thus variation in north–east monsoon and rise in temperature may have impact on rice production. Effect of temperature rise on wheat production in India It is reported since past few years that the productivity of wheat is declining gradually even in Punjab and Haryana-the granary of the Nation. 34
  • 35. Temperature Trend (Quadratic Fit) Precipitation Trend (Cubic Fit) Change in Temperature and Precipitation trend in India due to Global Warming Anon., 2011 Fig. No.: 21 Fig. No.: 22 35
  • 36. Future productivity scenario of different crops in India • By 2030, rice and wheat are likely to see about 6-10 per cent decrease in yields. • Crops like potatoes, soybean, chickpea and mustard, on which climate change will have a neutral or positive impact. • Soybean and gram are likely to benefit from higher level of CO2 in atmosphere, which helps in CO2 fertilisation. But the positive effects are unlikely to last more than 10-15 years • Mustard will experience a neutral-to-positive impact in Northern India, especially in Punjab and Haryana, where winter temperature is very low. • Potato production will be positively impacted by elevated CO2 concentration and yield will increase by 11.12 per cent at elevated CO2 of 550 PPM and 1°C rise in temperature. • Kharif crops will be affected by rainfall variability, while rabi crops by minimum temperature. • Wheat is likely to be negatively impacted in rabi season due to terminal heat stress with 1°C rise in temperature results in loss of 4 metric tonnes (MT) of wheat. • Similarly, legumes are going to be benefitted because of elevated level of atmospheric CO2. 36Anon., 2015
  • 37. Crops Td , P (1) T , Pd (2) Td , Pd (3) Cotton -0.01333 (0.06010) 0.00990 (0.03349) -0.00343 (0.06688) Sorghum -0.00104 (0.00508) 0.00569 (0.00664) 0.00465 (0.00972) Rice 0.00024 (0.00232) -0.00197 (0.00378) -0.00173 (0.00465) Sugarcane 0.00368 (0.00348) 0.00729∗ (0.00411) 0.01098∗∗ (0.00555) Wheat -0.00004 (0.00127) 0.00021 (0.00385) 0.00017 (0.00399) Values shown are percentage changes in yield when de-trended climate data are fitted to the yield model. Td and Pd refer to de-trended data for temperature and precipitation, respectively. ∗ p < 0.1, ∗∗ p < 0.05, ∗∗∗ p < 0.01 Yield prediction model of different crops Moorthy and Buermann (2012)India Table: 13 37
  • 38. Treatments Seedling stage (d) Tillering Stage (d) Elongation stage (d) Heading stage (d) Filling stage (d) Maturation stage (d) Whole growth stage (d) CK 20.7 16.0 26.3 12.0 14.0 30.0 119.0 M 18.7 13.0 23.0 11.0 10.3 28.7 104.7 H 17.3 11.0 20.3 8.7 9.7 25.7 92.7 Variability between M & CK(%) (-)9.7 (-)18.8 (-)12.7 (-)8.3 (-)26.2 (-)4.4 (-)12.0 Variability between H & CK(%) (-)16.1 (-)31.3 (-)22.8 (-)27.8 (-)31.0 (-)14.4 (-)22.1 Effects of increased levels of atmospheric CO2 and high temperatures on rice growth The number of days in this table represents the days of different growth stages after rice transplanting; minus represents shortening; CK stands for Control treatment (400 µmol/mol+ 0˚C); M stands for 550 µmol/mol+ 2 ˚C ; H stands for 650 µmol/mol+ 4 ˚C China Shuo Liu et al.,2017 Table: 14 38
  • 39. Treatment Stover yield (t/ha) [Mean value] Grain yield(t/ha) [Mean] Biological yield(t/ha) [Mean] Harvest Index T1 9.38 4.44 13.82 0.32 T2 7.00 3.78 10.78 0.35 T3 6.70 3.58 10.27 0.35 T4 14.35 7.20 21.55 0.34 T5 12.10 6.47 18.57 0.35 T6 8.26 4.46 12.72 0.35 SEM± - 0.01 0.01 - LSD (P=0.05) 0.01 0.03 0.02 - Effect of elevated atmospheric CO2 and temperature on Stover yield, grain yield, biological yield and harvest index of maize Abebe et al. (2015)IARI, New Delhi T1: Ambient temp and ambient CO2, T2: Ambient temp and 1.5˚C & ambient CO2, T3: Ambient temp and 3.0˚C & ambient CO2, T4: Ambient temp and elevated CO2 (550 ± 20ppm), T5: Ambient temp and 1.5˚C & elevated CO2 (550 ± 20ppm), T6: Ambient temp and 3.0˚C & elevated CO2 (550 ± 20ppm) Table: 15 39
  • 40. Impact of Climate Change on Livestock Production WBUAFS (2013) 40
  • 41. Species Villous Height Crypt Depth References Pigs Decreased Decreased Yu et al. (2010) Pigs Decreased Decreased Liu et al. (2009) Broilers No change No change Quinteiro-Filho et al. (2010) Broilers No change Decrease Burkholder et al. (2008) Broilers Decrease - Garriga et al. (2006) Quail Decrease Decrease Sandkc et al. (2004) Fowl Decrease - Mitchell and Carlisle (1992) Effects of heat stress on intestinal morphology measures in various species WBUAFS (2013) Table: 16 41
  • 42. Effect Sea level rise on India • IPCC (2007) estimated a maximum possible sea-level rise of about 59 cm, more recent estimates show a global average rise of ≥1 m by the 2100 AD. • Cities like Mumbai, Chennai, Kolkata are in danger • Inundation of sea water will increase the salinity effect in soil • It will also reduce the quality of ground water • Water is enough but not usable 42
  • 43. Characteristics of Indian Farmers • India mostly is a agriculture dependent country. • Indian agriculture is a subsistence one (grow to eat) • Most of the Indian farmers are marginal farmers as they having less than 1 ha of land and economically poor. • Most of the farmers depend on rainfed cultivation of crops. Pathak et al., 2015 43 Fig.: 23
  • 44. Economic loss of Indian farmers • The Economic Survey 2018 claims that global warming could reduce farmers’ incomes by up to 25% annually. • Farm income losses of 15% to 18% on average and 20 to 25% in unirrigated areas. • A loss of Rs 3,600 per year for an average Indian farmer at current income levels. • Global warming has about 4-9 per cent impact on agriculture each year. As agriculture contributes 15 per cent to India’s GDP, global warming presumably causes about 1.5 per cent loss in GDP. Anon., 2017 44 Fig.: 24
  • 45. Suicides of Indian farmers linked to climate change • 60,000 Indian farmers and farm workers over the past three decades committed suicide. • One drought-hit state like Maharashtra, reported 852 farmer suicides in the first four months of this year. • For Karnataka, the number is around 450. Anon., 2017 45 Fig.: 25
  • 46. Agro-techniques to mitigate global warming a) Crop Management: 1. Impose practices that reduce greenhouse gas emissions (DSR,SRI) 2. Soil Carbon sequestration practices 3. Cultivation of cover crops to reduce N2O emission b) Nutrient Management: 1. Adoption of Site Specific Nutrient Management (SSNM) 2 .Use of slow release nitrogen fertilizers 3. Use of LCC 4. Use of organic products c) Crop residue management and carbon sequestration d) Conservation agriculture e) Contingency crop planning (CRIDA practices) 46
  • 47. Practice MT/Ha/Year MT/Acre/Year Ton/Acre/Year Tons/Acre/10Year CRM(Crop Residue Management) 0.30 - 0.70 0.12-0.28 0.13 - 0.31 1.34 - 3.12 Conservation Tillage 0.24 - 0.40 0.10-0.16 0.11 - 0.18 1.07 - 1.78 Fertilizer Management 0.05 - 0.15 0.02-0.06 0.02 - 0.07 0.22 - 0.67 Rotation with winter cover 0.10 - 0.30 0.04-0.12 0.04 - 0.13 0.45 - 1.34 Summer Fallow Elimination 0.10 - 0.30 0.04-0.12 0.04 - 0.13 0.45 - 1.34 Potential Soil Sequestration Rates for Carbon Lal et al., 2005U.S.A. Table: 17 47
  • 48. Short range weather forecasting Medium range weather forecasting Long range weather forecasting Agromet Advisory Service (AAS) Farmers Weather Bulletin (FWB) Weather Service Facilities 48
  • 49. Table: 18 Groups of Farmers Yield (t/ha) Cost of Production (Rs./ha) Gross income (Rs./ha) % increase in income Reduced cost(Rs./ha) Additional Cost (Rs./ha) C:B ratio Non-AAS farmers 28.50 1,15,000 6,27,000 - - - 5.45 AAS farmers 35.50 95,000 8,75,000 149 20,000 2,68,000 9.21 Impact of weather based agro advisory services in grapes during 2015-16, 2016-17 and 2017-18 (average of three years) AICRPAM, Bengaluru Shivaramu et al.(2018) 49
  • 50. • Rejuvenation of farming in cyclone and flood prone coastal agroecosystems through land shaping. • Community paddy nursery as a contingency measure for delayed planting. • Drum seeding of rice for water saving and timeliness in planting. • Drought tolerant paddy cultivars to tackle deficit rainfall situations. • Short duration for delayed monsoon / deficit rainfall districts • Crop diversification for livelihood security & resilience to climate variability. • Flood tolerant varieties impart resilience to farmers in flood-prone areas. • Improving the resilience of poor farmers reclaiming cultivable wastelands. • Jalkund - low cost rainwater harvesting structures • Captive rearing of fish seed - a livelihood opportunity in flood-prone areas. • Soil and water conservation measures 50
  • 51. Conclusion • In India, occurrence of S W & N E monsoon has changed due to global warming which leads to erratic rainfall pattern throughout the country. • Growth of C3 plant (41%) will be more than C4 plant (22%) under elevated CO2 condition. • Crops like rice, wheat, maize and sorghum will react negatively to global warming, on the other hand potato, onion, mustard, and soybean react neutral or positively. • Farm income losses of 15% to 18% on average and 20 to 25% in unirrigated areas. 51
  • 52. Future line of work • Strategic breeding for ideotypes and new varieties to respond to more CO2 concentrations and temperature rises. • Data base for new crop introduction suited to higher temperature and drought situations. • Harnessing moisture from soil and atmosphere towards crop rationing should also be a priority in research. 52
  • 53. “When it comes to global warming, everybody wants to change the world but nobody wants to change himself ” Thank you for your patience….. 53