CCAFS Theme 1 Strategy: Adaptation to Progressive Climate Change - Andrew Jarvis


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Presented by Andy Jarvis, CCAFS Theme Leader, at CG Contact Point Meeting in Bonn, 9 June 2011.

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  • Optional given the time constraints
  • Where the bar shows yield gap fractions, so green (0) = no gap between actual production and potential production; and red (1) = complete yield gap.
  • ANIMATED SLIDE. Example of systemic adjustments vs. structural adaptation with the coffee supply chain. Shading is one example of an adjustment, whereas larger scale, transformational, “structural adaptation” requires larger changes, which in this case can occur via certifications of climate-proofed coffee (C4 label). This creates an incentive for retailers and federations to invest in more sustainable coffee production (e.g., organic) and more resilient inputs (e.g., certain varietals). The result is adaptive change all along the supply chain.
  • Need to link those with objective 1.1; 1.2 and 1.3 somehow …!!!
  • CCAFS Theme 1 Strategy: Adaptation to Progressive Climate Change - Andrew Jarvis

    1. 2. Problems/Opportunities Problem : 60-70% more food to support a growing population…. … ..under an uncertain and potentially unfriendly climate Countries and communities asking: What does climate change imply, what can I do to adapt, how much will it cost, how do I implement it? Opportunity : Massive amount of existing knowledge on technologies and practices for production, and increasing food system governance from local to global level
    2. 3. 0 0.25 0.50 0.75 1 Exacerbating the yield gap From Licker et al, 2010 Climate change will likely pose additional difficulties for resource-poor farmers (e.g., in Africa), thereby increasing the yield gap
    3. 4. Progressive Adaptation <ul><li>THE VISION </li></ul><ul><li>To adapt farming systems, we need to: </li></ul><ul><li>Close the production gap by effectively using technologies, practices and policies </li></ul><ul><li>Increase the bar : develop new ways to increase food production potential </li></ul><ul><li>Enable policies and institutions, from the farm to national level </li></ul>
    4. 5. Input Providers Consumer Other Crops Structural Adaptation Action: Common Code for the Coffee Community (C4) introduces an add-on climate module that would indicate when coffee producers have adapted their production system to a changing climate. Result: Retailers agree to buy only C4 -certified “climate-proofed” coffee. Accordingly, changes occur down the coffee supply chain, with collaborative efforts to create a more adaptive structure. Adaptive Adjustments Action: a) Shading b) Changing varietals c) Changing inputs Result: Improved risk management at the farm level, allowing for long-term adaption. Wholesale/Retail C4 Coffee Federation Coffee Producers a) Shading
    5. 6. Coffee Producers Transformational Adaptation Action: Migrate to keep farming Change farming systems (agricultural) Switch livelihood sources (non-agricultural) Result: Long-term adaptation, but requires significant up-front transition costs.
    6. 7. Objective One: Adapted farming systems via integrated technologies, practices, and policies Objective Two: Breeding strategies to address abiotic and biotic stresses induced by future climates Objective Three: Identification, conservation, and deployment of species and genetic diversity Adaptation to progressive climate change · 1
    7. 8. Adaptation to progressive climate change · 1 <ul><li>1.1 </li></ul><ul><li>Holistic testing of farming options (benchmark sites) </li></ul><ul><li>Agricultural knowledge transfer </li></ul><ul><li>Analysis of enabling policies and instit. mechanisms </li></ul>Adapted farming systems <ul><li>1.2 </li></ul><ul><li>Climate-proofed global and national breeding strategies </li></ul><ul><li>Regional fora to discuss and set priorities </li></ul>Breeding strategies for climate stresses <ul><li>1.3 </li></ul><ul><li>Knowledge for better use of germplasm for adaptation </li></ul><ul><li>On-farm use of diversity to adapt </li></ul><ul><li>Policies of access for benefit sharing </li></ul>Species and genetic diversity
    8. 9. Approaches and impact pathways Data and evidence based strategies and solutions Climate science Agricultural modelling Observation using climate variability Analysis of community processes and responses, incl. social differentiation Village to national level Setting priorities Development partners, Private Sector, Policy Outreach
    9. 10. Adaptation to progressive climate change · 1 >> Spotlight on: Two Degrees Up Short climate change photofilms highlighting the impact of a two degree rise in temperature on smallholder agriculture What CCAFS output?
    10. 11. Adaptation to progressive climate change · 1 >> Spotlight on: Farms of the future The climate analogue tool identifies the range of places whose current climates correspond to the future of a chosen locality What CCAFS output? Choice of sites for cross-site farmer visits and participatory crop and livestock trials Why is it useful?
    11. 12. Karnal (India) <ul><li>Rainy season from June to September </li></ul>
    12. 13. Farmer exchanges for adaptation knowledge management
    13. 15. TPE analysis Future systems Knowledge & intuition Ideotype concept Gene/allelediscovery Intelligent phenotyping designs Marker developmt. Modeling Marker validation, Integration, G x E x M Molecular breeding Intelligent choice of populations Creative thinking & wild bets Forcing by target environment CHANGE Con-ventional breeding Application Methodology Search Function, regulation, phénotype Strategic choices Diversity Panels Biparental Pops CCAFS (CRP7) activity 1.2: Breeding strategies & ideotypes for 2030 horizon
    14. 16. >> Multi-site agricultural trial database( 20,000+ maize trials in 123 research sites Effect of +1ºC warming on yield Sites with >23ºC would suffer even if optimally managed More than 20% loss in sites with >20ºC, under drought Lobell et al. 2011
    15. 17. <ul><li>Over 3,000 trials </li></ul><ul><li>16 crops </li></ul><ul><li>20 countries </li></ul><ul><li>> 15 international and national institutions </li></ul>New data >> Multi-site agricultural trial database(
    16. 18. Adaptation to progressive climate change · 1 >> Spotlight on: The AMKN Platform It links farmers’ realities on the ground with promising scientific research outputs, to inspire new ideas and highlight current challenge. Why is it useful? The Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Knowledge Network platform is a portal for accessing and sharing agricultural A&M knowledge. What CCAFS output?
    17. 19. >> 5 easy things you can do! <ul><li>Share your climate change stories with us and post on the AMKN </li></ul><ul><li>Join the trial data sharing community ( and work with us on GxE analyses for your crops </li></ul><ul><li>Work with us on objective 1.2 in developing breeding strategies for your centre crop </li></ul><ul><li>Tell us your adaptation technologies and practices and work with us in evaluating their future using analogues </li></ul><ul><li>Share your climate data through </li></ul>
    18. 20. Better integrating center activities <ul><li>Theme activities are ~90% within centres! </li></ul><ul><li>Share your success stories, give me slides (with your logo!) </li></ul><ul><li>Use theme-lead science products – it is all totally public </li></ul><ul><li>Use other centre science products in your research </li></ul><ul><li>Develop cross-centre program activities </li></ul><ul><li>Get on the bus! </li></ul>
    19. 21. stay in touch sign up for science, policy and news e-bulletins follow us on twitter @cgiarclimate