Climate Change Agriculture and Food Security CCAFS CIAT


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Climate Change Agriculture and Food Security CCAFS CIAT

  1. 1. CCAFS: An Overview<br />
  2. 2. Message 1:<br />In the coming decades, climate change and other global trends will endanger agriculture, food security, and rural livelihoods.<br />
  3. 3. The concentration of GHGsisrising<br />Long-termimplications<br />for the climate and <br />forcropsuitability<br />
  4. 4. Climate baselines and variability are rising<br />Annual temperature trends, 1901 a 2005. In °C per century<br />
  5. 5. Cropsuitabilityischanging<br />Averageprojectedchange in suitabilityfor 50 crops, to 2050<br />
  6. 6. Food demands will rise<br />In order to meet global demands, we will need<br />60-70% <br />more food <br />by 2050.<br />
  7. 7. “Unchecked climate change will result in a <br />20% increase in malnourished children by 2050,” relative to the full mitigation scenario.<br />-Gerald Nelson, IFPRI/CCAFS<br />
  8. 8. Message 2:<br />With new challenges also come <br />new opportunities.<br />
  9. 9. Ecosystem valuation<br />Average price in voluntary <br />carbon markets ($/tCO2e)<br />2006<br />2007<br />2008<br />Left: Example of a silvo-pastoral system<br />
  10. 10. Genetic improvement<br />We can determine the most effective genetic improvement strategyfor each region, and then develop seeds with the appropriate cold, heat, drought, or waterlogging resistance<br />Map showing strategies for adapting beans.<br />
  11. 11. Message 3:<br />CCAFS aims to tap into those opportunities.<br />
  12. 12. CCAFS: the partnership<br />The CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) is a strategic collaboration between the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) andtheEarth System Science Partnership (ESSP). <br />
  13. 13. The CCAFS Team:<br />Who’s leading the research?<br />T1: Adaptation to Progressive Climate Change<br />Theme Leaders: Andy Jarvis, CIAT; and Andy Challinor, Univ. of Leeds<br />Science Officer: Osana Bonilla-Findji<br />T2: Adaptation through Managing Climate Risk<br />Theme Leader: Jim Hansen<br />Science Officer: Kevin Coffey<br />T3: Pro-Poor Climate Change Mitigation<br />Theme Leader: LiniWollenberg<br />Science Officer: Michael Misiko<br />T4: Integration for <br />Decision Making<br />Theme Leader: Phil Thornton<br />Science Officer: Wiebke Chaudhury<br />
  14. 14. The CCAFS Team:<br />Who’s coordinating the effort?<br />CCAFS Director and Heads<br />Director: Bruce Campbell<br />Head of Research: Sonja Vermeulen<br />Head of Program Coordination and Communications: Torben Timmermann<br />Program & Comm. Support<br />Program Manager: MishaWolsgaard-Iversen<br />Events & Program Support Consultant: RatihSeptivita<br />Communications Consultant: Vanessa Meadu<br />
  15. 15. CCAFS <br />Objectives<br />Identify and develop pro-poor adaptation and mitigation practices, technologies and policies for agriculture and food systems.<br />Support the inclusion of agricultural issues in climate change policies, and of climate issues inagricultural policies, at all levels.<br />
  16. 16. The CGIAR Research Centers<br />Where is the research being done? <br /> >> At our 15 CG centers and ~70 regional offices<br />
  17. 17. The Three Focus Regions<br />Indo-Gangetic Plains:<br />Parts of India, Bangladesh, Nepal<br />Regional director:<br />Pramod Aggarwal<br />West Africa:<br />Senegal, Mali, Burkina Faso, Ghana, and Niger<br />Regional director:<br />Robert Zougmoré<br />East Africa:<br />Tanzania, Uganda, Kenya, and Ethiopia<br />Regional director:<br />James Kinyangi<br />
  18. 18. REGION: West Africa<br />Population<br />High rural poverty rates and large populations dependent on rainfed subsistence agriculture in drylands.<br />Current Climate<br />The climate is characterized by a strong latitudinal rainfall gradient and dramatic fluctuations in precipitation over multi-decadal time scales. The region also suffers from widespread land degradation, particularly in the semi-arid Sudano-Sahelian zone. Water use and population growth are resulting in increasing stresses on existing water sources.<br />Future Climate<br />Due to the extreme variability in the rainfall regime, predictions for rainfall vary for the region. Nevertheless, most models agree that the Sahel will experience shorter growing periods. <br />
  19. 19. REGION: East Africa<br />Population<br />High rural poverty rates and large populations dependent on rainfed subsistence agriculture in drylands.<br />Current Climate<br />The region exhibits strong heterogeneity of climate, topography, agro-ecosystems, livelihoods, and environmental challenges. Rainfall is reasonably predictable, and temperature gradients are associated with elevation. <br />Future Climate<br />Climate change will likely intensify surface and groundwater stress. <br />
  20. 20. REGION: Indo-Gangetic Plains<br />Population<br />“The Gangetic basin alone is home to 500 million people, about 10% of the total human population in the region” (IPCC 2007). Because of its intensified, irrigated agricultural production systems, it is the “bread basket” of South Asia. <br />Current Climate<br />Agricultural productivity is highly dependent on the timing and strength of northeast and southwest monsoons, which supply ~80% of the region’s total annual rainfall. The area is prone to droughts (west) and flooding (east).<br />Future Climate<br />There is risk of heat stress, melting glaciers, and sea level rise. Some uncertainty exists regarding precipitation, but the general consensus that the intensity and probability of extreme events will increase. The timing of monsoons may become more variable.<br />
  21. 21. The CCAFS Framework:<br />Research Themes, Outputs, and Impacts<br />Adapting Agriculture to<br />Climate Variability and Change<br />Technologies, practices, partnerships and policies for:<br />Adaptation to Progressive Climate Change<br />Adaptation through Managing Climate Risk<br />Pro-poor Climate Change Mitigation<br />Improved Environmental Health<br />Improved Rural Livelihoods<br />Improved Food Security<br />Trade-offs and Synergies<br />4. Integration for Decision Making<br /><ul><li>Linking Knowledge with Action
  22. 22. Assembling Data and Tools for Analysis and Planning
  23. 23. Refining Frameworks for Policy Analysis</li></ul>Enhanced adaptive capacity<br /> in agricultural, natural resource management, and food systems<br />
  24. 24. THE VISION<br />To adapt farming systems, we need to:<br /><ul><li> Close the yield gap by effectively using current technologies, practices and policies
  25. 25. Increase the bar: develop new ways to increase agricultural potential
  26. 26. Enable policies and institutions, from the farm to national level</li></ul>Progressive<br /> Adaptation<br />
  27. 27. Adaptation to Progressive Climate Change<br />Objective One: <br />Adapted farming systems via integrated technologies, practices, and policies<br />Objective Two: <br />Breeding strategies to address abiotic and biotic stresses induced by future climates<br />1one<br />Objective Three: <br />Identification, conservation, and deployment of species and genetic diversity<br />
  28. 28. Adaptation to Progressive Climate Change<br />Objective One: <br />Adapted farming systems via integrated technologies, practices, and policies<br />1one<br />Holistic testing of farming options (benchmark sites)<br />Agricultural knowledge transfer from NARS, universities and other CRPs<br />Analysis of policies and institutional mechanisms that enable adaptation<br />
  29. 29. Adaptation to Progressive Climate Change<br />Objective Two: <br />Breeding strategies to address abiotic and biotic stresses induced by future climates<br />1one<br />Climate-proofed global and national breeding strategies<br />Regional fora to discuss and set priorities <br />Policies of access for benefit sharing<br />
  30. 30. Adaptation to Progressive Climate Change<br />Objective Three: <br />Identification, conservation, and deployment of species and genetic diversity<br />1one<br />Knowledge for enhanced use of germplasm for adaptation<br />On-farm use of diversity to adapt<br />Policies of access for benefit sharing<br />
  31. 31. Adaptation to Progressive Climate Change<br />>> Spotlight on: The AMKN Platform<br />What is it?<br />Why is it useful?<br />The Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Knowledge Network platform is a portal for accessing and sharing current agricultural adaptation and mitigation knowledge. <br />It brings together farmers’ realities on the ground and links them with promising scientific research outputs, to inspire new ideas and highlight the current challenges that need to be tackled to improve climate change resilience and smallholders’ livelihoods.<br />1one<br />
  32. 32. Adaptation to Progressive Climate Change<br />>> Spotlight on: The AMKN Platform<br />1one<br />
  33. 33. Adaptation to Progressive Climate Change<br />>> Spotlight on: The Climate Analogue Tool<br />What is it?<br />Why is it useful?<br />The climate analogue tool measures of climatic dissimilarity between a projection of future climate at a user-specified location and current climate globally. The tool is designed to identify areas whose climate today appears as a likely analogue to future projected climate for another user-specified location. <br />The tool will facilitate on-the-ground evaluations of whether adaptation options that appear successful in certain places can be transferred to other areas that may face similar climate conditions in the future. In this way, it promotes knowledge transfer and communal learning.<br />1one<br />
  34. 34. Adaptation to Progressive Climate Change<br />>> Spotlight on: The Climate Analogue Tool<br />1one<br />
  35. 35. THE VISION<br /><ul><li>Climate-related risk impedes development, leading to chronic poverty and dependency
  36. 36. Actions taken now can reduce vulnerability in the short term and enhance resilience in the long term
  37. 37. Improving current climate risk management will reduce obstacles to making future structural adaptations.</li></ul>Risk <br />Management<br />
  38. 38. Managing Climate Risk<br />Objective One:<br />Building resilient livelihoods (Farm level) <br />Objective Two: <br />Food delivery, trade, and crisis response <br />(Food system level) <br />2two<br />Objective Three: <br />Enhanced climate information and services<br />
  39. 39. Managing Climate Risk<br />Objective One:<br />Building resilient livelihoods (Farm level) <br />2two<br />Designed diversification<br />Index-based risk transfer<br />Anticipatory management, aided by forecasts and communication (O3)<br />Participatory action research<br />
  40. 40. Managing Climate Risk<br />Objective Two: <br />Food delivery, trade, and crisis response <br />(Food system level) <br />2two<br />Manage price volatility through trade and storage<br />Post-crisis recovery<br />Food security safety nets<br />Improved early warning systems (O3)<br />Platform for coordination<br />
  41. 41. Managing Climate Risk<br />Objective Three: <br />Enhanced climate information and services<br />services<br />information<br />2two<br />Historic data reconstruction<br />Institutional arrangements<br />Downscaled, tailored seasonal forecast predictions<br />Communication processes<br />Monitor and forecast crops, rangelands, pests and diseases<br />Capacity building for providers<br />
  42. 42. Managing Climate Risk<br />>> Spotlight on: Participatory action research<br />What is it?<br />Why is it useful?<br />A network of participatory pilot demonstrations will engage rural communities and local stakeholders at benchmark sites to identify, develop and evaluate suites of promising risk management interventions focusing on: (a) designed diversification, (b) index-based financial risk transfer, and (c) adaptive management. <br />Research and informed outside intervention can improve livelihoods where external change: (a) is too rapid for trial-and-error strategies to respond to; (b) have undermined traditional livelihood strategies; or (c) has created new opportunities that require technical support or market development. <br />2two<br />
  43. 43. Managing Climate Risk<br />>> Spotlight on: Indexed crop insurance<br />What CCAFS outputs?<br />Why is it useful?<br /><ul><li> Knowledge and tools for targeting, implementing, and evaluating index insurance
  44. 44. Using crop yield predictions to develop robust indices with low basis risk</li></ul>Basing payouts on an objectively-measured index overcomes problems with moral hazard, adverse selection and the high cost of verifying losses. Farmers’ assets are protected from climate shocks, while rural financial services are protected from widespread default.<br />2two<br />In indexed insurance schemes, payouts are based on a meteorological index (e.g., rainfall) correlated with agricultural losses, rather than on observed losses. <br />
  45. 45. Managing Climate Risk<br />>> Spotlight on: Improved crop forecasts<br />What CCAFS outputs?<br />Why is it useful?<br /><ul><li> Improved crop forecast lead time & accuracy
  46. 46. Analysis of impact of food security early response rules on logistical and livelihood costs
  47. 47. Analysis of impact of trade informed by early warning on price volatility</li></ul>Rural communities avoid the need to divest productive assets before assistance arrives. Stabilized supplies and prices reduce the need for counterproductive coping strategies by net consumers<br />2two<br />
  48. 48. CHALLENGES<br />Short-term: Identifying options feasible for smallholder mitigation and trade-offs with other outcomes<br />Long-term: Conflict between achieving food security and agricultural mitigation<br />Mitigation<br />
  49. 49. Pro-Poor CC Mitigation <br />Objective One: <br />Identify low-carbon agricultural development pathways<br />Objective Two: <br />Develop incentives and institutional arrangements<br />3three<br />Objective Three: <br />Develop on-farm technological options for mitigation and research landscape implications<br />
  50. 50. Pro-Poor CC Mitigation <br />Objective One:<br />Identify low-carbon agricultural development pathways<br />3three<br /> Evaluate lowest carbon footprints for: <br />food production and adaptation, energy production, sustainable intensification, poverty alleviation<br />Assess impacts of current policies<br />Develop coherent visions to guide agricultural development<br />
  51. 51. Pro-Poor CC Mitigation <br />Objective Two: <br />Develop incentives and institutional arrangements<br />3three<br />Test feasibility of carbon market for smallholders, focusing on where mitigation success is most likely (SE Asia, Latin America) <br />Assess potential non-market incentives and institutional arrangements for poor<br />Assess impacts <br />on marginalized groups and women<br />
  52. 52. Pro-Poor CC Mitigation <br />Objective Three: <br />Develop on-farm technological options for mitigation and research landscape implications<br />3three<br />Test technological feasibility of smallholder mitigation on farms for multiple sectors.<br />Develop cost-effective, simple, integrated MRV. Towards that end, establish and improve data and meteorological standards. <br /> Assess impacts of all GHG, through their lifecycles.<br />
  53. 53. Pro-Poor CC Mitigation <br />>> Spotlight on: Determining mitigation potential<br />What CCAFS outputs?<br />Why is it useful?<br />Using  modeling, remote sensing data and data on farmers' management practices, Winrock International and Applied GeoSolutions are estimating current agricultural emissions and generating scenarios of different mitigation strategies  consistent with maintaining food supply.<br />Determining the mitigation potential of agricultural practices at country and site levels will facilitate interventions on the ground.<br />3three<br />
  54. 54. Pro-Poor CC Mitigation <br />What CCAFS outputs?<br />Why is it useful?<br />>> Spotlight on: Quantifying agricultural mitigation<br />Two workshops, hosted together with FAO and Duke University, will provide an overview and synthesis of how to quantify emissions for smallholder systems, especially for farm- and landscape level-impacts.<br />Determining the mitigation potential of agricultural practices at country and site levels will facilitate interventions on the ground.<br />3three<br />
  55. 55. VISION<br /><ul><li>Provide an analytical and diagnostic framework, grounded in the policy context
  56. 56. Synthesize lessons learned
  57. 57. Effectively engage with rural stakeholders and decision makers
  58. 58. Communicate likely effects of specific policies and interventions
  59. 59. Build partners’ capacity</li></ul>Integration<br />
  60. 60. T2: Risk <br />Management<br />T3: Pro-poor<br /> Mitigation<br />Integration for Decision Making<br />4four<br />Rural Livelihoods<br />Environment<br />Food Security<br />
  61. 61. Integration for Decision Making<br />Objective One: <br />Linking knowledge with action<br />Objective Two: <br />Data and tools for analysis and planning<br />4four<br />Objective Three: <br />Refining frameworks for policy analysis<br />
  62. 62. Integration for Decision Making<br />Objective One:<br />Linking knowledge with action<br />4four<br />Regional scenarios<br />Vulnerability assessments<br />Approaches to decision making informed by good science<br />Approaches to benefit women and other vulnerable, socially disadvantaged groups<br />
  63. 63. Integration for Decision Making<br />Objective Two:<br />Data and tools for analysis and planning<br />4four<br />Integrated assessment framework, toolkits and databases to assess climate change impacts <br />Baselines, data generation &/or collation, scoping studies and tool development <br />Socially‐differentiated decision aids and information for different stakeholders <br />
  64. 64. Integration for Decision Making<br />Objective Three:<br />Refining frameworks for policy analysis<br />4four<br />Assess CC impacts at global, regional levels on producers, consumers, natural resources, national/regional economies, and international transactions <br />Analyze likely effects of specific adaptation and mitigation options, national policies <br />Analyze differential impacts of options on different social groups <br />
  65. 65. Integration for Decision Making<br />>> Mainstream delivery of outputs and outcomes <br />For research partners to generate useful data, tools, and results<br /><ul><li> National agricultural research institutes
  66. 66. National meteorological services
  67. 67. Regional/int’l climate and agricultural research institutes</li></ul>4four<br />For non-research partners to demand and use data, tools, and results<br /><ul><li> Governments
  68. 68. Civil society, NGOs, and development organizations
  69. 69. Private sector
  70. 70. Farmers’associations</li></li></ul><li>™<br />MarkSim<br />Integration for Decision Making<br />>> Spotlight on:<br />What is it?<br />Why is it useful?<br />A tool to generate daily data that are characteristic of future climatologies for any point on the globe<br />To drive agricultural impact models for climate change studies<br />4four<br />Available at<br />
  71. 71. ™<br />MarkSim<br />Integration for Decision Making<br />Select climate model <br />(6 options or their avg)<br />Select emissions scenario<br />(3 options)<br />4four<br />Select the centre year of the time slice<br />Select the number of years of data desired<br />Select location <br />
  72. 72. CCAFS<br />Capacity Enhancement<br />Values<br />A Definition<br />A person or organization increasing their own ability to achieve their objectives effectively and efficiently, usually by building internal capacity, i.e. the skills and knowledge of an individual or the systems of an organization. Enabling capacity enhancement is a better strategy than attempting to "deliver" capacity development.<br />The CCAFS Vision<br /><ul><li> Adaptation to future climates needs embedded local capacity, not external solutions
  73. 73. CCAFS aims to enhance both (a) research capacities and (b) capacities to link knowledge and action</li></li></ul><li>In developing countries, women farmers account formore than 60% of the rural labor force andproduce up to 80% of local food. <br />They are also60% of the world’s hungry population.<br />
  74. 74. CCAFS<br />Engaging with Vulnerable Communities<br />Values<br />Gender & <br />Social Differentiation<br /><ul><li> Social groups differ in (a) vulnerability to climate change and (b) specialized abilities to respond
  75. 75. 30% of CCAFS research budget will address gender & social differentiation
  76. 76. Early work in baseline survey, gender studies, opportunities for women scientists</li></li></ul><li>Global Policy Impact<br />The Commission on Sustainable Agriculture and Climate Change<br />The Commission will identify what policy changes and actions are needed now to help the world achieve sustainable agriculture that contributes to food security and poverty reduction, and helps respond to climate change adaptation and mitigation goals.<br />Agriculture and Rural Development Day (ARDD)<br />CCAFS is an active partner in the annual ARDD side event at the annual UNFCCC Conference of Parties negotiations. <br />
  77. 77. CCAFS Start-Up<br />2011 as a transition year<br /><ul><li> Centers begin to adjust their CRP7 funded research agendas towards the broader CCAFS strategy, with support from CCAFS-led activities and through CCAFS established partnerships.
  78. 78. Low-hanging fruit inter-centre collaborations.</li></ul>2012 and beyond<br /><ul><li> Centers fully aligned with CCAFS, and contributing to multi-center, multi-partner programs of work.
  79. 79. Budget assigned strategically.</li></li></ul><li>3%<br />Theme 1: Adaptation to progressive <br />climate change <br />27%<br />Theme 2: Adaptation through managing <br />37%<br />climate risk <br />Theme 3: Pro-<br />-<br />poor climate change <br />mitigation<br />Theme 4: Integration for decision making<br />19%<br />CRP7:Theme and regional coordination<br />14%<br />CCAFS Budget<br />
  80. 80. What you should do?<br />Learn and engage<br /><ul><li> Learn about the program on the web and through presentations
  81. 81. Engage with theme leaders and center contact points on your research</li></ul>Collaborate and contribute<br /><ul><li> Use research products coming out of other centers
  82. 82. Develop multi-center programs of work which are embedded in CCAFS strategy
  83. 83. Develop ownership and feel a part of the program</li></li></ul><li>Thank you.<br />Stay Connected<br />Website:<br />Blog:<br />Sign up for science, policy and news e-bulletins at our website.<br />Follow us on twitter @cgiarclimate<br />