The climate analogues approach: Concepts and application


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CCAFS workshop titled "Using Climate Scenarios and Analogues for Designing Adaptation Strategies in Agriculture," 19-23 September in Kathmandu, Nepal.

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  • Optional given the time constraints
  • Where the bar shows yield gap fractions, so green (0) = no gap between actual production and potential production; and red (1) = complete yield gap.
  • ANIMATED SLIDE. Example of systemic adjustments vs. structural adaptation with the coffee supply chain. Shading is one example of an adjustment, whereas larger scale, transformational, “structural adaptation” requires larger changes, which in this case can occur via certifications of climate-proofed coffee (C4 label). This creates an incentive for retailers and federations to invest in more sustainable coffee production (e.g., organic) and more resilient inputs (e.g., certain varietals). The result is adaptive change all along the supply chain.
  • Need to link those with objective 1.1; 1.2 and 1.3 somehow …!!!
  • IGP is food basket of South Asia. Climate change threatens wheat and rice production in the IGP due to heat stress as well as irrigation uncertainties. This experimental network has advantage for researchers as well as farmers. RESEARCHERS, project provides on-farm data and visualization of how different varieties fare. Also allows for synthesis of farmers’ local knowledge and varietal preferences. For PARTICIPATING FARMERS, helps improve stocks of adaptive varieties in their local seed systems, and better knowledge to share via farmers’ experimentation networks Projects located in 4 states across the IGP: Haryana, Punjab, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh
  • The current suitability is closed to 100% because we are only using a range of temperature and precipitation and we don’t consider other parameters as soil,…. We did the ecocrop analysis with the average of annual precipitation and not with taking in account the crop seasonnality (which could be more exact).
  • Maybe this slide is not really usefull because we want to compare the current climate of Niger with the future climate of Senegal then it is not crucial to know the future climate of Niger.
  • The climate analogues approach: Concepts and application

    1. 1. The climate analogues approach Concepts and application
    2. 3. The Challenge
    3. 4. Problems/Opportunities Problem : 60-70% more food to support a growing population…. … ..under an uncertain and potentially unfriendly climate Countries and communities asking: What does climate change imply, what can I do to adapt, how much will it cost, how do I implement it? Opportunity : Massive amount of existing knowledge on technologies and practices for production, and increasing food system governance from local to global level
    4. 5. 0 0.25 0.50 0.75 1 Exacerbating the yield gap From Licker et al, 2010 Climate change will likely pose additional difficulties for resource-poor farmers (e.g., in Africa), thereby increasing the yield gap
    5. 6. Exacerbating the yield gap Climate change will likely increase difficulties for resource-poor farmers, thereby increasing the yield gap
    6. 7. Progressive Adaptation <ul><li>THE VISION </li></ul><ul><li>To adapt farming systems, we need to: </li></ul><ul><li>Close the production gap by effectively using technologies, practices and policies </li></ul><ul><li>Increase the bar : develop new ways to increase food production potential </li></ul><ul><li>Enable policies and institutions, from the farm to national level </li></ul>
    7. 8. Input Providers Consumer Other Crops Structural Adaptation Action: Common Code for the Coffee Community (C4) introduces an add-on climate module that would indicate when coffee producers have adapted their production system to a changing climate. Result: Retailers agree to buy only C4 -certified “climate-proofed” coffee. Accordingly, changes occur down the coffee supply chain, with collaborative efforts to create a more adaptive structure. Adaptive Adjustments Action: a) Shading b) Changing varietals c) Changing inputs Result: Improved risk management at the farm level, allowing for long-term adaption. Wholesale/Retail C4 Coffee Federation Coffee Producers a) Shading
    8. 9. Coffee Producers Transformational Adaptation Action: Migrate to keep farming Change farming systems (agricultural) Switch livelihood sources (non-agricultural) Result: Long-term adaptation, but requires significant up-front transition costs.
    9. 10. Theme 1 Strategy Problem definition: DIAGNOSTIC BIO/ENV DATA SOCIO/ECO DATA MODELS CAP. BUILDING EVALUATION OF ADAPTATION OPTIONS AND TECHNOLOGIES (2012) (2013- 2014) 1.2 RESEARCH Strategies (breeding) -> CRPs 1.3 POLICY + INSTITUTIONAL STRATEGIES * Food system * Nat -> sub-national 1.1 COMMUNITY / FARMING SYSTEM + LOCAL FOOD SYSTEM STRATEGIES SCIENCE BASED ADAPTATION STRATEGIES OBJECTIVES System or crop level adaptation strategies (2013- 2015)
    10. 11. Approaches and impact pathways Data and evidence based strategies and solutions Climate science Agricultural modelling Observation using climate variability Analysis of community processes and responses, incl. social differentiation Village to national level Setting priorities Development partners, Private Sector, Policy Outreach
    11. 13. TPE analysis Future systems Knowledge & intuition Ideotype concept Gene/allelediscovery Intelligent phenotyping designs Marker developmt. Modeling Marker validation, Integration, G x E x M Molecular breeding Intelligent choice of populations Creative thinking & wild bets Forcing by target environment CHANGE Con-ventional breeding Application Methodology Search Function, regulation, phénotype Strategic choices Diversity Panels Biparental Pops CCAFS (CRP7) activity 1.2: Breeding strategies & ideotypes for 2030 horizon
    12. 14. Current Climatic Suitability
    13. 15. Current Climatic Constraints
    14. 16. Future Suitability
    15. 17. Benefits of breeding options
    16. 18. >> Multi-site agricultural trial database( 20,000+ maize trials in 123 research sites Effect of +1ºC warming on yield Sites with >23ºC would suffer even if optimally managed More than 20% loss in sites with >20ºC, under drought Lobell et al. 2011
    17. 19. <ul><li>Over 3,000 trials </li></ul><ul><li>16 crops </li></ul><ul><li>20 countries </li></ul><ul><li>> 15 international and national institutions </li></ul>New data >> Multi-site agricultural trial database(
    18. 20. Importance & Potential <ul><li>Collating input climate and agricultural data </li></ul><ul><li>Design of experiments </li></ul><ul><li>Calibration, validation and crop model runs </li></ul><ul><li>Exploration of adaptation options </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Genetic improvement </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>On-farm management practices </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Test them via modelling </li></ul><ul><li>Build “adaptation packages” </li></ul><ul><li>Assess technology transfer options </li></ul>(c) Neil Palmer (CIAT)
    19. 21. >> Example for beans
    20. 22. Next steps with Agtrials <ul><li>Continue to develop the infrastructure for sharing trial and evaluation data </li></ul><ul><li>Analyse data in agtrials: GxE analyses at crop and variety level </li></ul><ul><li>Continue to populate with data – the more data, the better our understanding of varietal level adaptation, GxE etc. </li></ul>
    21. 23. Farmers’ Network for Participatory Evaluation <ul><li>Goal: To improve farmers’ access to knowledge and genetic materials; and build their experimentation skills </li></ul><ul><ul><li>More than 70 farmers’ field trials at 4 project sites in IGP </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Farmers selected varieties based on their perspective </li></ul></ul>
    22. 24. This PPT is designed to introduce the concept of SROI and to outline how SOCIAL RETURN ON INVESTMENT COMMUNITY BASED CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION COSTING This PPT is designed to introduce the concept of Social Return on Investment (SROI) and to outline the pilot framework as applied in Kisumu Kenya in July of 2011. JUSTIFICATION | WHAT IS SROI? | WORKSHOP | SROI INTERVIEWS | ANALYSIS CONTENT BAR:
    23. 25. SROI - Kochiel, Kenya – July 2011 (All photos by Anna Wikman) RESOURCES The SROI Network: >> The publication, “A guide to Social Return on Investment&quot;, has served as the guiding resource in developing this pilot series. The document has been embedded in this PPT for reference.
    24. 26. Adaptation to progressive climate change · 1 >> Spotlight on: The AMKN Platform It links farmers’ realities on the ground with promising scientific research outputs, to inspire new ideas and highlight current challenge. Why is it useful? The Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Knowledge Network platform is a portal for accessing and sharing agricultural A&M knowledge. What CCAFS output?
    25. 27. Adaptation to progressive climate change · 1 >> Spotlight on: Two Degrees Up Short climate change photofilms highlighting the impact of a two degree rise in temperature on smallholder agriculture What CCAFS output?
    26. 28. Adaptation to progressive climate change · 1 >> Spotlight on: Farms of the future The climate analogue tool identifies the range of places whose current climates correspond to the future of a chosen locality What CCAFS output? Choice of sites for cross-site farmer visits and participatory crop and livestock trials Why is it useful?
    27. 29. The Analogue Concept <ul><li>We heavily rely on models to tell us what the future holds </li></ul><ul><ul><li>GCM/RCM projections </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Crop models, household models, farming system models </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Few take into account human adaptive capacity, and social and cultural factors that contribute to decision making </li></ul>
    28. 30. Novel climates <ul><li>Williams et al. (2007) state that there is likely to be 30% novel climates under climate change </li></ul><ul><li>That means that there are 70% of already existing climates projected to 2100 for sites! </li></ul><ul><li>Analogues: Use spatial variability in climate as a means of having a real experiment of what the future holds for a site </li></ul>
    29. 31. Benefits of an analogue approach <ul><li>Large uncertainties remain regarding future projections of climate, and their resultant impacts on farming systems, especially at the local level. </li></ul><ul><li>The adaptive capacity of communities is a factor rarely taken into account in the global/regional models on which policy makers often rely </li></ul><ul><li>The use of climate analogues for locating future climates today can ground models in field-based realities, significantly enhancing our knowledge of adaptation capacity and supporting the identification of appropriate interventions. </li></ul>
    30. 32. Analogue options Spatial analogues Temporal analogues Where can I find sites that… <ul><li>are at present </li></ul><ul><li>were in the past ( x year) </li></ul><ul><li>are projected to be in the future ( y year) </li></ul>… analogous to my selected site… <ul><li>at present? </li></ul><ul><li>in the past ( z year)? </li></ul><ul><li>in the future (projected n year)? </li></ul>
    31. 33. Karnal (India) <ul><li>Rainy season from June to September </li></ul>
    32. 34. Why we think this an important approach <ul><li>Facilitating farmer-to-farmer exchange of knowledge </li></ul><ul><li>Permitting validation of computational models and trialing of new technologies/techniques </li></ul><ul><li>Learning from history </li></ul>
    34. 36. Starting site: Kaffrine, Senegal <ul><li>CCAFS site </li></ul><ul><li>600 mm annual rainfall </li></ul><ul><li>Min. Temp. 14.8°C </li></ul><ul><li>Max. Temp. 39.1°C </li></ul><ul><li>Main crops: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Millet </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Maize </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Peanuts </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Sorghum </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Sesame </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Climate Change threats: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Erratic Rainfall </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Socio-economic constraints: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>High poverty level - Low access to capital </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>No attractive market </li></ul></ul>Kaffrine, Senegal (x:-15.54, y:14.106)
    35. 37. Change in climate, 2020 – Kaffrine , Senegal Average Climate Change Trends: - Decrease in precipitation from 660 mm to 590.58 mm - Increase of mean temperature of 0.344°C
    36. 38. The Model: EcoCrop <ul><li>So, how does it work? </li></ul>It evaluates on monthly basis if there are adequate climatic conditions within a growing season for temperature and precipitation… … and calculates the climatic suitability of the resulting interaction between rainfall and temperature…
    37. 39. Crop suitability – Kaffrine , Senegal
    38. 40. <ul><li>Mean of the dissimilarity index of 24 GCMs between the starting site Kaffrine, Senegal with the entire world </li></ul><ul><li>- Climate parameters: </li></ul><ul><li>Monthly temperature - Monthly rainfall </li></ul><ul><li>Scenario A1B, 2030 </li></ul>High climate similarity Where can we find a region with similar climatic conditions to Kaffrine, Senegal in 2030? Climate similarity
    39. 41. Zoom on high similarity climate of CCAFS sites CCAFS site with minimum value of dissimilarity with the climate of Kaffrine, Senegal = Tougou, Burkina Faso Best consistency between the 24 GCM’s = Fakara , Niger The current climate of Fakara is similar to the future projected climate in Kaffrine Fakara is the most likely analogue of Kaffrine
    40. 42. Analogue of Kaffrine, Senegal: Fakara, Niger <ul><li>CCAFS site </li></ul><ul><li>500 mm annual rainfall </li></ul><ul><li>Min. Temp. 15.7°C </li></ul><ul><li>Max. Temp. 41.3°C </li></ul><ul><li>Main crops: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Millet </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Beans </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Leafy vegetables </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Maize </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Sorghum </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Climate Change threats: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Drought </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Socio-economic constraints: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Low level of infrastructure </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Limited access to market </li></ul></ul>Fakara, Niger (x:2.687, y:13.517)
    41. 43. Change in climate, 2020 – Fakara, Niger Average Climate Change Trends: - Decrease in precipitation from 615 mm to 539.53 mm - Increase in main daily temperature range of 1.3°C
    42. 44. Comparison of current conditions Current conditions Kaffrine, Senegal Fakara, Niger = Future condition of Kaffrine Zone Transition zone from the Sahelien towards the Sudan Savannah zone Within the Sahel Altitude 15 m 225 m Annual rainfall average 600 mm 500 mm Minimum Temperature 14.8 °C 15.7 °C Maximum Temperature 39.1 °C 41.3 °C Main crops <ul><li>Millet </li></ul><ul><li>Maize </li></ul><ul><li>Peanuts Sorghum </li></ul><ul><li>Sesame </li></ul>Millet Beans Leafy vegetables Maize Sorghum Length of Growing period 130 days 95 days Soil type Deep sandy soil Sandy and clay sandy soil Soil FAO Class Ferric Luvisols Luvic Arenosols Socio-economic constraints High poverty level Low access to capital No attractive market Low level of infrastructure Limited access to market
    43. 45. Comparison of main crops Kaffrine, Senegal Fakara, Niger <ul><li>Millet </li></ul><ul><li>Maize </li></ul><ul><li>Peanuts Sorghum </li></ul><ul><li>Sesame </li></ul>Millet Beans Leafy vegetables Maize Sorghum
    44. 46. Agtrial database - Application Kontela, Mali is another potential analogue to Kaffrine, Senegal The sorghum yield data in Kontela, Mali could help us to know the future sorghum yield in Kaffrine, Senegal. Yield data available in the Agtrials database: Sorghum yield data Sorghum Variety K (kg/ha) N (kg/ha) P (kg/ha) Lime (kg/ha) Manure (kg/ha) Grain yield (t/ha) CSM63E 0 0 0 0 0 0.68 CSM63E 0 0 0 0 0 0.10 CSM63E 60 0 30 0 0 0.55 CSM63E 60 100 0 0 0 0.33 CSM63E 0 100 30 0 0 0.38 CSM63E 60 100 30 0 0 1.40 CSM63E 60 100 30 0 0 0.54 CSM63E 60 100 30 500 0 1.68 CSM63E 60 100 30 0 10000 1.06 CSM63E 60 100 30 0 0 0.08
    45. 47. Agtrial database - Application Senegal Hombolo, Tanzania is another potential analogue to Kaffrine, Senegal Yield data available in the Agtrial database: The MILLET yield data in Homboro, Tanzania could help us to know the future millet yield in Kaffrine, Senegal. Millet Yield data Variety name Grain Yield (t/ha) Nyamkombo 0.87 Okashana-2 1.09 PMV-2 0.78 PMV-3 0.86 SDMV89003 0.88 SDMV89007 0.82 SDMV90031 1.16 SDMV91018 0.91 SDMV92033 0.75 SDMV92038 0.82 SDMV95032 1.03 SDMV95033 0.93 SDMV95045 1.13 SDMV96075 0.89 SDMV97007 0.87 SDMV97011 0.87 TSPM91018 0.69 SDMV89005 0.90 SDMV92035 0.51 SDMV92037 1.01 SDMV95009 0.77 SDMV95014 0.68 SDMV95025 0.73 ZPMV92005 0.50 ZPMV94001 0.60
    46. 48. Conclusions and a word of warning <ul><li>We believe the analogue approach as an interesting tool for analysing impacts and identifying and supporting adaptation strategies </li></ul><ul><li>You are the first to see this, and there are still some glitches, plus we continue to improve methods based on calibration and validation </li></ul><ul><li>We’re interested in feedback, suggestions for improvement, and working with you in the use of the tool to continue its improvement </li></ul>
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