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Smallholder agriculture & climate change

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Smallholder agriculture & climate change

  1. 1. smallholder agriculture and climate change<br />P Läderach, A Eitzinger, A Benedikter<br />Oxfam GB, London, January 2011 <br />
  2. 2. <ul><li>Objectives
  3. 3. Methodology
  4. 4. Preliminary results</li></ul>Guatemala<br />Bogotá<br />Jamaica<br /><ul><li>Carbon Footprint online platform
  5. 5. A Framework to adapt
  6. 6. What’s next?
  7. 7. CCAFS</li></ul>Outline<br />
  8. 8. Objectives<br />Perceptions<br />“Rain has become very irregularly, this year we suffered drought followed by heavy rains during Broccoli season”<br />Two small-farmers & brothers, Guatemala, Patzún, October, 2010<br />
  9. 9. Objectives<br />Adaptation by agricultural communities to climate change through participatory & supply chain inclusive management<br />Objectives<br /><ul><li>Quantify the exposure of crops (using crop prediction models)
  10. 10. Derive indicators to describe climate change impacts on livelihood(participatory & gender sensitive diagnostic)
  11. 11. Develop potential response pathways for supply chain actors (using interviews with industry partners) & estimate the carbon food print for identifying response pathways (develop a online carbon footprint platform)
  12. 12. Road map how adaptationstrategiescan be used(deriving a framework)</li></ul>Beneficiaries (case studies)<br /><ul><li>Guatemala frozen vegetable value chain
  13. 13. Bogotá metropolitan area small-scale farmers related food security
  14. 14. Jamaica fresh vegetable market for the hotel industry</li></li></ul><li>Objectives<br />Vulnerability to climate change (IPCC 2001)<br />Vulnerability<br />Degree of<br />susceptibility and<br />incapability of<br />a system to confront<br />adverse effects<br />of climate<br />Change<br />(IPCC 2001)<br />Exposure<br />Degree to which a system is<br />exposed to significant variation<br />in climate<br />Sensitivity<br />Degree to which a system is<br />positively or negatively affected<br />by climate related stimulus<br />Adaptive capacity<br />The ability of a system to adapt<br />to climate change<br />
  15. 15. Methodology<br />Overall Approach<br />Output<br />Process<br />Inputs<br />Statistical Downscaling of Climate Information<br />Future Climates<br />at Local scale<br />Global Climate Model (GCM) Outputs<br />Crop Suitability and Niche Modeling<br />Yield and Quality Impacts<br />Production and Quality Data<br />EXPOSURE<br />Vulnerability Analyses<br />Socio Economic Information<br />ADAPTIVE CAPACITY<br />Alternative Livelihood Strategies<br />SENSITIVITY<br />
  16. 16. Methodology<br />Crop prediction models<br />What is the suitability of a crop to the climate?<br />Suitability to future climate(2050) – Current suitability = Change in suitability <br />Current Suitability<br />Future Suitability 2050<br />Change in Suitability to Future Climate (2050)<br />Ecocrop Database (FAO)<br />(Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN)<br />Ranges: Temperature and precipitation<br />Precipitation<br /> Calibration with optimal points<br /><ul><li> Samples (GPS points)
  17. 17. Altitude range
  18. 18. Current Production Areas
  19. 19. Soil types</li></ul>Calibrated<br />Temperature and<br />Precipitación<br />Ranges!<br />WorldClim Climate Data <br />http://worldclim.org<br />More than 47,000 stations worldwide<br />Temperature<br />
  20. 20. Methodology<br />DFID Livelihood Framework, Indicators on 5 Assets<br />Human<br />Social<br />Physical<br /><ul><li>Access routes
  21. 21. Transport of products
  22. 22. Quality of accommodation
  23. 23. Access to formal and informal education
  24. 24. Level of knowledge of farming system management.
  25. 25. Health and feeding
  26. 26. Organization
  27. 27. Take decisions / Work distribution</li></ul>Natural<br />Financial<br /><ul><li>Credit access
  28. 28. Variability of production
  29. 29. Price variability
  30. 30. Variability in annual revenue and income diversification
  31. 31. Access to markets
  32. 32. Access to alternative technology
  33. 33. Access and availability of water
  34. 34. Contamination
  35. 35. Conservation
  36. 36. Soil conditions and fertility</li></ul>See presentation A130 by Celi et al. <br />
  37. 37. Preliminary results<br />Guatemala’s Frozen Vegetable Value-chain<br />Actually cultivated vegetables areas<br />
  38. 38. Climate change<br />predictions for 2050<br />Analysis of 19 GCM Models from the Fourth IPCC Evaluation Report (2007) <br />ExtractedClimateData for Vegetables in Chimaltenango, Sololá<br />By 2050 the annual temperature will rise on average 2.2 °C<br />The maximum annual temperature will rise 2.8°C <br />The minimum annual temperature will increase 1.8°C <br />By 2050 annual precipitation will decrease by 25 millimeters. <br />“It will be hotter year-round and the rains will start later and be heavier in late winter.”<br />
  39. 39. Exposure<br />by changing crop suitability<br />
  40. 40. Exposure<br />… and limited land alternatives<br />
  41. 41. Exposure<br />by changing crop suitability<br />
  42. 42. Exposure<br />… and limited land alternatives<br />
  43. 43. Sensitivity & Adaptive Capacity<br />Different Livelihood profiles<br />ADAM SUMAR<br />
  44. 44. Strategies<br />Characterized from supply chain actors <br />ALANEL, ADICOSO, ASDIC<br />Producers, cooperatives<br /><ul><li>Installation of irrigation (Drill wells, rainwater harvesting)
  45. 45. Financing through credit (Inputs or capital for producers, infrastructure)
  46. 46. Educate producers (Reforestation, soil conservation, crop rotation, waste classification)</li></ul>Buen Sembrador<br /><ul><li>Reforestation
  47. 47. Crop rotation
  48. 48. Irrigation</li></ul>SUMAR, ADAM<br />Chainactors<br />Look forfundsfromorganizations(like IFAD, Oxfam, … )forirrigationsystems, inputs, trainings, infrastructure<br />
  49. 49. Preliminary results<br />Bogota’s food security<br />
  50. 50. Climate change<br />predictions for 2050<br />Analysis of 19 GCM Models from the Fourth IPCC Evaluation Report (2007) <br />Extracted Climate Data for Bogotá<br />By 2050 the annual temperature will rise on average 2.4 °C<br />The maximum annual temperature will rise 3°C <br />The minimum annual temperature will increase 2.3°C <br />By 2050 annual precipitation will increase by 65 millimeters. <br />“It will be hotter year-round and there will be more precipitation all over the year.”<br />
  51. 51. Exposure<br />by changing crop suitability of Potato<br />Potato<br />
  52. 52. Exposure<br />by changing crop suitability of cassava<br />Cassava<br />
  53. 53. Sensitivity & Adaptive Capacity<br />Different Livelihood profiles<br />Selling to consumers (MC)<br />Selling to both<br />Selling to intermediary<br />
  54. 54. Strategies<br />Characterized from supply chain actors <br />3 most important strategies, mentioned by different groups:<br />Information, training and awareness(about the problem and causes)<br />Political incidence (local a global)<br />Sustainable/ecological production<br />
  55. 55. Preliminary results<br />Jamaica’s hotel industry supplier<br />
  56. 56. Climate change<br />predictions for 2050<br />Analysis of 19 GCM Models from the Fourth IPCC Evaluation Report (2007) <br />Extracted Climate Data for Jamaica<br />By 2050 the annual temperature will rise on average 1.7 °C<br />The maximum annual temperature will rise 2°C <br />The minimum annual temperature will increase 1.5°C <br />By 2050 annual precipitation will decrease by 65 millimeters. <br />“It will be hotter year-round and there will be less precipitation all over the year.”<br />
  57. 57. Exposure<br />by changing crop suitability<br />
  58. 58. Exposure<br />… and limited land alternatives<br />Bamboo<br />
  59. 59. Exposure<br />by changing crop suitability<br />
  60. 60. Exposure<br />… and limited land alternatives<br />Bamboo<br />
  61. 61. Vulnerability<br />Sensitivity & Adaptive Capacity<br />
  62. 62. Strategies<br />Characterized from supply chain actors <br />3 most important mentioned by different groups:<br />Education, training, capacity building, information sharing, research<br />Legislation & government policies, marketing, financing<br />Infrastructure development, organization, sustainable implementation<br />
  63. 63. Framework<br />Chain Inclusive Adaptation to GCC Impacts<br />Analysis of food supply chains and business nature<br />Vulnerability assessment of the supply chains<br />Analysis of people, behavioural traits and institutionalised patterns<br />Derivation of chain inclusive adaptation strategies<br />People<br />Importance<br />Tools<br />Business<br />Institutions<br />Resilience<br />By means of:<br /><ul><li>Quantitative fieldwork at farm level
  64. 64. Geographic crop modelling
  65. 65. Participative workshops
  66. 66. Expert interviews with key supply chain actors
  67. 67. Fieldwork observations</li></ul>Exposure<br />Adaptive Capacity<br />Sensitivity<br />
  68. 68. Framework<br />Role and Nature of Food Supply Chains (FSCs)<br />Purpose:<br /><ul><li>Characterisation: Understand the “nature of business”.
  69. 69. Reasons for adaptation: Check importance of FSC.
  70. 70. Evaluation of resilience: Will the FSC prevail against GCC impacts?</li></ul>Assess main objectives. Estimate importance of SCs for small farmers and other stakeholders <br /><ul><li>Assess main structures and dynamics and identify fragile and resilient parts for each SC </li></ul>How To Assess: <br /><ul><li>Keep it simple and general. Define supply chains via products and customers.
  71. 71. Compare FSCs among each other where possible.</li></li></ul><li>Framework<br />Vulnerability of Food Supply Chains (1)<br />Partial assessment of vulnerability<br />Aims At:<br /><ul><li>Capture the elements of the problem: Exposure, affection, means to respond to GCC stresses.
  72. 72. Allocation of problem. Where is the least/highest need for adaptation?</li></ul>Exposure is found along a FSC when crops at farm level are exposed to GCC.<br /> How To Assess: crop suitability change<br />Sensitivityis found along a FSC whenever producers are sensitive AND when up-the-road actors are<br />affected by producer level sensitivity.<br />How To Assess:<br /><ul><li>affection of 5 livelihood assets at farm level,
  73. 73. crop diversification ,
  74. 74. FSC dependence on small-farmers</li></ul>Adaptive capacityhas various components:<br /> How To Assess:<br /><ul><li>identify fixed patterns or entities enabling or inhibiting the capacity to respond
  75. 75. estimate assets -available and useful for adaptation- at non-farm level through FSC analysis.</li></li></ul><li>Framework<br />Vulnerability of Food Supply Chains (2)<br />Analyse overall results for vulnerability<br />Purpose:<br /><ul><li>Overview of situation: Identifying cause of vulnerability.
  76. 76. Comparison: Location and characterization ofhot spots.</li></ul>Supplychainlevel<br />Farm level<br />How To Analyse:<br /><ul><li>Focus on cases in upper right corner (orange-red) Highest need for adaptation.
  77. 77. Relate to adaptive capacity  hot spots
  78. 78. Go back to partial analysis and find specific reasons for vulnerability at the hot spots
  79. 79. Respond to differences between farm and FSC level
  80. 80. Derive implications and suggestions</li></li></ul><li>Framework<br />Behaviour as Lever of Adaptation Strategies<br />Purpose: <br /><ul><li>Understand people, entities and their reasons.
  81. 81. Revelation of action cycles and behavioral patterns enabling or obstructing adaptation.
  82. 82. Find the go-to points and derive incentives for change.</li></ul>Type 1: Push means of mediation and focus on endurance.<br />Type 2: Find incentives to change behaviour, drop out of action cycles. <br />Impediments to change: <br />Uncertainty<br />Cognitive problems and differing perceptions<br />Lack of motive or incentives<br />Lack of capacity<br />Example:<br />Suggestions:Strengthen sense of farming as important job via workshops with key farmers and local governments. Public promotion of farming as essential socio-economic profession required…<br />
  83. 83. Framework<br />Adaptation Strategies for Food Supply Chains<br />Information assessment<br />Combine results, assess specific situation:<br />Derive feasible, generally held adaptationstrategies<br /><ul><li>Focus on objective to define strategy.
  84. 84. Tailor strategies to (types of) crops/products and/or the reported overall situation.</li></ul>Example: COL1<br /><ul><li>Integrate strategies among each other. Compare to similar FSCs.</li></ul>Push implementation (incentives) and measure results.<br /><ul><li>Measure in simple ways. Revise, draw conclusions for 5.</li></ul>Gradually adjust and deepen adaptation to specific regions.<br /><ul><li>Local adjustments of strategies where necessary.
  85. 85. Increase internalisation of adaptation.</li></ul>FEASIBLE ADAPTATION STRATEGIES<br />
  86. 86. Colaboration<br />Climate Change Agriculture and Food Security CCAFS<br />
  87. 87. What’s next?<br />Grounding climate change<br />By 2030, site will have current conditions of site <br />Site learn from site for 2030<br />Site learn from site for 2030<br />Site learn …<br />
  88. 88. smallholder agriculture and climate change<br />THANK YOU!<br />p.laderach@cgiar.org<br />
  89. 89. Characterized from supply chain actors <br />Carbon Footprint<br />online platform<br />
  90. 90. Characterized from supply chain actors <br />Carbon Footprint<br />online platform<br />
  91. 91. Characterized from supply chain actors <br />Carbon Footprint<br />online platform<br />

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