General presentationon the Climate CHange, Agriculture and Food Security program of the CGIAR and ESSP.

1. CCAFS: An Overview

2. Message 1: In the coming decades, climate change and other global trends will endanger agriculture, food security, and rural livelihoods.

3. The concentration of GHGsisrising Long-termimplications for the climate and forcropsuitability

4. Temperature baselines and variability are rising Annual temperature trends, 1901 a 2005. In °C per century

5. Cropsuitabilityischanging Averageprojected % change in suitabilityfor 50 crops, to 2050

6. Food demands will rise In order to meet global demands, we will need 60-70% more food by 2050.

7. “Unchecked climate change will result in a 20% increase in malnourished children by 2050,” relative to the full mitigation scenario. -Gerald Nelson, IFPRI/CCAFS

8. Message 2: With new challenges also come new opportunities.

9. Ecosystem valuation Average price in voluntary carbon markets ($/tCO2e) 2006 2007 2008 Left: Example of a silvo-pastoral system

10. Message 3: CCAFS aims to tap into those opportunities.

11. CCAFS Objectives Identify and develop pro-poor adaptation and mitigation practices, technologies and policies for agriculture and food systems. Support the inclusion of agricultural issues in climate change policies, and of climate issues inagricultural policies, at all levels.

12. CCAFS: the partnership The CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) is a strategic collaboration between the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) andtheEarth System Science Partnership (ESSP).

14. Assembling Data and Tools for Analysis and Planning

15. Refining Frameworks for Policy AnalysisTrade-offs and Synergies Enhanced adaptive capacity in agricultural, natural resource management, and food systems

16. The CGIAR Research Centers Where is the research being done? >> At our 15 CG centers and ~70 regional offices Lead center - CIAT

17. The Three Focus Regions Indo-Gangetic Plains: Parts of India, Bangladesh, Nepal Regional director: Pramod Aggarwal West Africa: Senegal, Mali, Burkina Faso, Ghana, and Niger Regional director: Robert Zougmoré East Africa: Tanzania, Uganda, Kenya, and Ethiopia Regional director: James Kinyangi

18. REGION: West Africa Population High rural poverty rates and large populations dependent on rainfed subsistence agriculture in drylands. Current Climate The climate is characterized by a strong latitudinal rainfall gradient and dramatic fluctuations in precipitation over multi-decadal time scales. The region also suffers from widespread land degradation, particularly in the semi-arid Sudano-Sahelian zone. Water use and population growth are resulting in increasing stresses on existing water sources. Future Climate Due to the extreme variability in the rainfall regime, predictions for rainfall vary for the region. Nevertheless, most models agree that the Sahel will experience shorter growing periods.

19. REGION: East Africa Population High rural poverty rates and large populations dependent on rainfed subsistence agriculture in drylands. Current Climate The region exhibits strong heterogeneity of climate, topography, agro-ecosystems, livelihoods, and environmental challenges. Rainfall is reasonably predictable, and temperature gradients are associated with elevation. Future Climate Climate change will likely intensify surface and groundwater stress.

20. REGION: Indo-Gangetic Plains Population “The Gangetic basin alone is home to 500 million people, about 10% of the total human population in the region” (IPCC 2007). Because of its intensified, irrigated agricultural production systems, it is the “bread basket” of South Asia. Current Climate Agricultural productivity is highly dependent on the timing and strength of northeast and southwest monsoons, which supply ~80% of the region’s total annual rainfall. The area is prone to droughts (west) and flooding (east). Future Climate There is risk of heat stress, melting glaciers, and sea level rise. Some uncertainty exists regarding precipitation, but the general consensus that the intensity and probability of extreme events will increase. The timing of monsoons may become more variable.

22. Increase the bar: develop new ways to increase agricultural potential

23. Enable policies and institutions, from the farm to national levelProgressive Adaptation

24. Adaptation to Progressive Climate Change Objective One: Adapted farming systems via integrated technologies, practices, and policies Objective Two: Breeding strategies to address abiotic and biotic stresses induced by future climates 1one Objective Three: Identification, conservation, and deployment of species and genetic diversity

26. Agricultural knowledge transfer

29. On-farm use of diversity to adapt

30. Policies of access for benefit sharingAdapted farming systems Breeding strategies for climate stresses Species and genetic diversity 1one

31. Adaptation to Progressive Climate Change >> Spotlight on: The AMKN Platform What is it? Why is it useful? The Adaptation and Mitigation Knowledge Network platform is a portal for accessing and sharing current agricultural adaptation and mitigation knowledge. It links farmers’ realities on the ground with promising scientific research outputs, to inspire new ideas and highlight current challenge. 1one

32. Adaptation to Progressive Climate Change >> Spotlight on: The AMKN Platform 1one

33. Adaptation to Progressive Climate Change >> Spotlight on: The Climate Analogue Tool What is it? Why is it useful? The analogue tool identifies areas where the climate today is a likely analogue to the future projected climate at another location. The tool will facilitate on-the-ground evaluations of whether successful adaptation options in one place are transferrable to a future climatic analogue site. 1one

34. Adaptation to Progressive Climate Change >> Spotlight on: The Climate Analogue Tool 1one

36. Actions taken now can reduce vulnerability in the short term and enhance resilience in the long term

37. Improving current climate risk management will reduce obstacles to making future structural adaptations.Risk Management

38. Managing Climate Risk Objective One: Building resilient livelihoods (Farm level) Objective Two: Food delivery, trade, and crisis response (Food system level) 2two Objective Three: Enhanced climate information and services

40. Index-based risk transfer

41. Anticipatory mgmt, aided by forecasts and communications

43. Improved early warning systems

44. Coordin. platform

45. Food safety nets

47. Downscaled, tailored seasonal forecast predictions

49. Comm. processes

50. Capacity bldg for providersBuilding resilient livelihoods Food delivery, trade, and crisis response Climate information and services 2two

51. Managing Climate Risk >> Spotlight on: Participatory action research What is it? Why is it useful? A network of participatory pilot demonstrations will identify, develop and evaluate promising risk management interventions on: (a) designed diversification, (b) index-based financial risk transfer, and (c) adaptive management. Research and informed outside intervention can improve livelihoods where external change: (a) is too rapid for trial-and-error strategies to respond to; (b) have undermined traditional livelihood strategies; or (c) has created new opportunities that require technical support or market development. 2two

53. Using crop yield predictions to develop robust indices with low basis riskBasing payouts on an objectively-measured index avoids the high cost of verifying losses and overcomes the problems of moral hazard, adverse selection and. Farmers’ assets are protected from climate shocks. 2two In indexed insurance schemes, payouts are based on a meteorological index (e.g., rainfall) correlated with agricultural losses, rather than on observed losses.

55. Analysis of impact of early response on logistical and livelihood costs

56. Analysis of impact of early warning on price volatility and tradeRural communities do not need to divest productive assets before assistance arrives. Stabilized supplies and prices reduce counterproductive coping strategies. 2two

57. CHALLENGES Short-term: Identifying options feasible for smallholder mitigation and trade-offs with other outcomes Long-term: Conflict between achieving food security and agricultural mitigation Mitigation

58. Pro-Poor CC Mitigation Objective One: Identify low-carbon agricultural development pathways Objective Two: Develop incentives and institutional arrangements 3three Objective Three: Develop on-farm technological options for mitigation and research landscape implications

60. Assess impacts of current policies

62. Assess potential non-market options

64. Dvlpt cost-effective, simple, integrated MRV.

65. Assess impacts of all GHGs through their lifecycles.Low-carbon development pathways Incentives and instit. arrangements On-farm mitigation options 3three

66. Pro-Poor CC Mitigation What CCAFS outputs? Why is it useful? >> Spotlight on: Quantifying agricultural mitigation Two workshops will provide an overview and synthesis of how to quantify emissions for smallholder systems, at the farm and landscape level. Determining the mitigation potential of agricultural practices will facilitate interventions on the ground. 3three

67. Pro-Poor CC Mitigation >> Spotlight on: Spotting mitigation potential What CCAFS outputs? Why is it useful? We are estimating current agricultural emissions and generating different mitigation strategies scenarios while maintaining food supply. Determining the mitigation potential of agricultural practices at country and site levels will facilitate interventions on the ground. 3three

69. Synthesize lessons learned

70. Effectively engage with rural stakeholders and decision makers

71. Communicate likely effects of specific policies and interventions

72. Build partners’ capacityIntegration

73. Integration for Decision Making T2: Risk Management T3: Pro-poor Mitigation 4.3 POLICY 4.1 ENGAGEMENT 4four Rural Livelihoods Environment Food Security

74. Integration for Decision Making Objective One: Linking knowledge with action Objective Two: Data and tools for analysis and planning 4four Objective Three: Refining frameworks for policy analysis

76. Vulnerability assessments

77. Approaches to decision making informed by good science

79. Baselines, data generation & collation, scoping studies, and tool development

81. Analyze likely effects of scientific adap. and mitig. options, national policies

82. Analyze differential impacts of options on different social groupsLinking knowledge with action Data and tools for analysis and planning Frameworks for policy analysis 4four

84. National meteorological services

86. Civil society, NGOs, and development organizations

87. Private sector

89. ™ MarkSim Integration for Decision Making Select climate model (6 options or their avg) Select emissions scenario (3 options) 4four Select the centre year of the time slice Select the number of years of data desired Select location

90. Integration for Decision Making >> Spotlight on: Household baseline survey What is it? Why is it useful? A survey conducted in the three focus regions at household and village focus group levels. Understanding rural communities’ practices and behaviors and their mediating environment 4four One of the sites in Western Kenya

94. 30% of CCAFS research budget will address gender & social differentiation

96. CCAFS Governance Structure

101. Develop multi-center programs of work which are embedded in CCAFS strategy

103. The CCAFS Team: Who’s leading the research? T1: Adaptation to Progressive Climate Change Theme Leaders: Andy Jarvis, CIAT; and Andy Challinor, Univ. of Leeds Science Officer: Osana Bonilla-Findji T2: Adaptation through Managing Climate Risk Theme Leader: Jim Hansen Science Officer: Kevin Coffey T3: Pro-Poor Climate Change Mitigation Theme Leader: LiniWollenberg Science Officer: Michael Misiko T4: Integration for Decision Making Theme Leader: Phil Thornton Science Officer: Wiebke Chaudhury

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