An overview of CCAFS for the Commission on Genetic Resources for Food and Agriculture (CGRFA)


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Presentation made in the Side Event on Agriculutral Biodiversity and Climate Change organised by Bioversity International in the context of the Commission on Genetic Resources for Food and Agriculture (CGRFA) meetings in FAO, July 2011.

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  • For Lobell map: Values show the linear trend in temperature for the main crop grown in that grid cell, and for the months in which that crop is grown. Values indicate the trend in terms of multiples of the standard deviation of historical year-to-year variation. ** A 1˚C rise tended to lower yields by up to 10% except in high latitude countries, where in particular rice gains from warming. ** In India, warming may explain the recently slowing of yield gains. For yield graph: Estimated net impact of climate trends for 1980-2008 on crop yields for major producers and for global production. Values are expressed as percent of average yield. Gray bars show median estimate and error bars show 5-95% confidence interval from bootstrap resampling with 500 replicates. Red and blue dots show median estimate of impact for T trend and P trend, respectively. ** At the global scale, maize and wheat exhibited negative impacts for several major producers and global net loss of 3.8% and 5.5% relative to what would have been achieved without the climate trends in 1980-2008. In absolute terms, these equal the annual production of maize in Mexico (23 MT) and wheat in France (33 MT), respectively. Source: Climate Trends and Global Crop Production Since 1980 David B. Lobell 1 , , Wolfram Schlenker 2 , 3 , and Justin Costa-Roberts 1 Science magazine
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  • An overview of CCAFS for the Commission on Genetic Resources for Food and Agriculture (CGRFA)

    1. 2. The Challenge
    2. 3. The concentration of GHGs is rising Long-term implications for the climate and for crop suitability
    3. 4. Historical impacts on food security % Yield impact for wheat Observed changes in growing season temperature for crop growing regions,1980-2008. Lobell et al (2011)
    4. 5. Average projected % change in suitability for 50 crops, to 2050 Crop suitability is changing
    5. 6. <ul><li>In order to meet global demands, we will need </li></ul><ul><li>60-70% </li></ul><ul><li>more food </li></ul><ul><li>by 2050. </li></ul>Food security is at risk
    6. 7. Message 1: In the coming decades, climate change and other global trends will endanger agriculture, food security, and rural livelihoods.
    7. 8. Left : Example of a silvo-pastoral system 2006 2007 2008 Ecosystem valuation Spot the livestock! Average price in voluntary carbon markets ($/tCO2e)
    8. 9. Message 2: With new challenges also come new opportunities.
    9. 10. Program Design
    10. 11. CCAFS: the partnership
    11. 12. <ul><li>Identify and develop pro-poor adaptation and mitigation practices, technologies and policies for agriculture and food systems. </li></ul><ul><li>Support the inclusion of agricultural issues in climate change policies , and of climate issues in agricultural policies , at all levels. </li></ul>CCAFS objectives
    12. 13. The CCAFS Framework Adapting Agriculture to Climate Variability and Change <ul><li>Technologies, practices, partnerships and policies for: </li></ul><ul><li>Adaptation to Progressive Climate Change </li></ul><ul><li>Adaptation through Managing Climate Risk </li></ul><ul><li>Pro-poor Climate Change Mitigation </li></ul>Improved Environmental Health Improved Rural Livelihoods Improved Food Security Enhanced adaptive capacity in agricultural, natural resource management, and food systems Trade-offs and Synergies <ul><li>4. Integration for Decision Making </li></ul><ul><li>Linking Knowledge with Action </li></ul><ul><li>Assembling Data and Tools for Analysis and Planning </li></ul><ul><li>Refining Frameworks for Policy Analysis </li></ul>
    13. 14. Progressive Adaptation <ul><li>THE VISION </li></ul><ul><li>To adapt farming systems, we need to: </li></ul><ul><li>Close the production gap by effectively using current technologies, practices and policies </li></ul><ul><li>Increase the bar : develop new ways to increase food production potential </li></ul><ul><li>Enable policies and institutions, from the farm to national level </li></ul>
    14. 15. Objective One: Adapted farming systems via integrated technologies, practices, and policies Objective Two: Breeding strategies to address abiotic and biotic stresses induced by future climates Objective Three: Identification, conservation, and deployment of species and genetic diversity Adaptation to progressive climate change · 1
    15. 16. Adaptation to progressive climate change · 1 <ul><li>1.1 </li></ul><ul><li>Holistic testing of farming options (benchmark sites) </li></ul><ul><li>Agricultural knowledge transfer </li></ul><ul><li>Analysis of enabling policies and instit. mechanisms </li></ul>Adapted farming systems <ul><li>1.2 </li></ul><ul><li>Climate-proofed global and national breeding strategies </li></ul><ul><li>Regional fora to discuss and set priorities </li></ul>Breeding strategies for climate stresses <ul><li>1.3 </li></ul><ul><li>Knowledge for better use of germplasm for adaptation </li></ul><ul><li>On-farm use of diversity to adapt </li></ul><ul><li>Policies of access for benefit sharing </li></ul>Species and genetic diversity
    16. 17. Greater interdependence for agricultural biodiversity Courtesy: Burke, Lobell and Guarino
    17. 18. Risk Management <ul><li>THE VISION </li></ul><ul><li>Climate-related risk impedes development , leading to chronic poverty and dependency </li></ul><ul><li>Actions taken now can reduce vulnerability in the short term and enhance resilience in the long term </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Improving current climate risk management will reduce obstacles to making future structural adaptations . </li></ul></ul>
    18. 19. Objective One: Building resilient livelihoods ( Farm level ) Objective Two: Food delivery, trade, and crisis response ( Food system level ) Objective Three: Enhanced climate information and services Managing Climate Risk · 2
    19. 20. Pro-poor Mitigation VISION Short-term : Identifying options feasible for smallholder mitigation and trade-offs with other outcomes Long-term : Addressing conflict between achieving food security and agricultural mitigation
    20. 21. Integration <ul><li>VISION </li></ul><ul><li>Provide an analytical and diagnostic framework , grounded in the policy context </li></ul><ul><li>Synthesize lessons learned </li></ul><ul><li>Effectively engage with rural stakeholders and decision makers </li></ul><ul><li>Communicate likely effects of specific policies and interventions </li></ul><ul><li>Build partners’ capacity </li></ul>
    21. 22. Importance of agricultural biodiversity for climate change <ul><li>Increased interdependence of genetic resources requiring effective international and national level policies </li></ul><ul><li>Varietal and crop substitution for adaptation </li></ul><ul><li>Designed diversification for risk management </li></ul>
    22. 23. stay in touch sign up for science, policy and news e-bulletins follow us on twitter @cgiarclimate