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Combined presentations at the CCAFS official side event (June 6th 2015) at SBSTA 42

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CCAFS official side event on ‘Filling the Evidence Gap: Linking Agricultural and Climate Change Science and Policy in Africa’

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Combined presentations at the CCAFS official side event (June 6th 2015) at SBSTA 42

  1. 1. SBSTA 42 Side Event on ‘Filling the Evidence Gap: Linking Agricultural and Climate Change Science and Policy in Africa’
  2. 2. Kevin Coffey SBSAT 42 June 2015 Expanding the Contribution of Early Warning to Climate- Resilient Agricultural Development in Africa
  3. 3. In an era of more frequent and more extreme weather events and climate shocks, enhanced early warning systems provide a key opportunity to curb erosion of development progress in rural sectors. Recommendations for strengthening existing systems and developing news ones are: Six Recommendations 1) Establish objective rules for early response to early warning information, based on parametric triggers, contingency plans and contingency finance mechanisms 2) Broaden the range of users of early warning information and integrate into development activities 3) Early warning systems should incorporate systematic feedback from users, and change with the needs of stakeholders and new technology 4) Invest in the quality, accessibility and integration of data 5) Take greater advantage of seasonal prediction to increase the lead-time 6) Factor uncertainty into risk analysis, communication, and decision processes
  4. 4. Establish objective rules for early response to early warning information, based on parametric triggers, contingency plans and contingency finance mechanisms Recommendation 1 Innovative solutions include: - Using predetermined triggers that are connected to specific actions (example: FoodSECuRe program) - Contingency finance mechanisms (example: Africa Risk Pool) Decision processes surrounding food security management are often a greater constraint to early action than early warning information itself
  5. 5. Broaden the range of users of early warning information and integrate into development activities Recommendation 2 - Effective community level early warning leads to early and effective action - Sub-national institutions with the right information can facilitate early community response - Too much focus at higher levels. The best analysis is stuck at national, regional and global levels - Mobilizing national gov’ts and donors is important. However:
  6. 6. Early warning systems should incorporate systematic feedback from users, and change with the needs of stakeholders and new technology Recommendation 3 Early warning systems should always be “works in progress,” responding to regular user feedback • Build feedback into the system • Clear M&E strategy • Users are the client
  7. 7. Invest in the quality, accessibility and integration of data Recommendation 4 • Investing in data may include efforts at data recovery, digitalization, and cleaning • Advanced knowledge management systems allow for greater access to data and analysis • Break down information silos and focus on integrating data (i.e. agriculture and meteorological data) to provide decision-makers with tailored analysis • Example: ENACTS - State of the art historical rainfall and temperature reconstruction STATION BLENDED SATELLITE
  8. 8. Take greater advantage of seasonal prediction to increase the lead-time Recommendation 5 • Early season assessments in Africa typically take a more ad-hoc approach to incorporating seasonal prediction • Subjective assessments are difficult to calibrate in probabilistic terms and can’t be used for triggering early action based on objective thresholds • New methods are available to integrate seasonal climate forecast information into established agromet monitoring tools • Example: Crop water satisfaction indexes and crop simulation models (CRAFT Tool)
  9. 9. Factor uncertainty into risk analysis, communication, and decision processes Recommendation 6 • Users of EWS will lose faith in the information provided if uncertainty is not effectively communicated • For determining appropriate responses, cost benefit analysis can incorporate uncertainty and be used to set thresholds for action • For information at a long lead-time, e.g., near the start of the growing season, uncertainty of early warning information should be factored into communication, in probabilistic terms
  10. 10. Thank you! Please See the CCAFS SBSTA Submission on Early Warning for More Information
  11. 11. SBSTA 42 Side Event on ‘Filling the Evidence Gap: Linking Agricultural and Climate Change Science and Policy in Africa’
  12. 12. Julian Smith International Development Lead Fera Impact of climate change on African agriculture: focus on pests and diseases
  13. 13. Planning for a vibrant African agricultural economy Agriculture is seen as a good investment for poverty reduction What will a successful Africa look like in 20 years time  Increased formal food systems!  Production and trade fully integrated with the global food system!  Responding to export and local food opportunity!
  14. 14. Overview The sum of many moving parts Climate change Progressive trends Climate change Erratic shocks Markets Farmers Policy Land under farming Externalities eg population growth, distribution and diets New markets and trade pathways Land-use change Genetic resources Environment biota Pests Endemic/exotic Technology Pest spread, new pest entry, new pests Improved cultivars eg Drought resistant Environment biota change Improved livestock eg ????
  15. 15. Changed land-use Productivity, farmer choices & changed farming systems Projected changes in crops for Sub- Sahara Africa for 8 crops (left) and for beans at the continent level (right; green is positive and red negative) Context  In the context of climate change, how will farmers respond to serve local and export markets? Climate change consequence & outcome  The suitability of land will change, for crops, livestock and aqua-culture  We need to predict these changes to support adaptive action
  16. 16. Crop, livestock and aquatic pests Increased spread, new entry and new Context  Africa is with a history of big pest events, that cause both food insecurity and discourage private sector investment  Weak human and physical infrastructure for agricultural services  Global trade, human movement new and changing food markets present heightened risk of pest entry  Geographic isolation of pests Climate change consequence & outcome  Increased rates of pest cycling and spread of endemic pests  Increased rates of pest entry events and new pest establishments  Increased risk of new pests from natural biota (plants and wildlife) The increases distribution and severity of Coconut Lethal Yellow Disease in Mozambique has been related to temperature difference
  17. 17. Climate change – trend impacts Livestock and East Coast Fever East Coast Fever (ECF)  Prevalent across the eastern, central, and southern Africa  Transmitted by Rhipicephalus appendiculatus (Brown ear tick).  Killing at ~1 million cattle/year  28 million cattle at risk  Small-holders are most at risk Climate change consequence & outcome  The vector will − Increase in prevalence in cooler, wetter northern and eastern Cape provinces of South Africa, Botswana, Zambia and eastern DRC − Decrease in prevalence in warmer western arid regions of Africa Among 65 animal diseases identified as most important to poor people, 58 % are climate- sensitive.
  18. 18. Climate change – trend impacts Crops and Potato tuber moth Potato tuber moth  Potato rank as the 5th most important crop for developing countries (159 MT, CIP)  Potato tuber moth (Phthorimaea operculella ) is a major pest of field crops and stored potato Climate change consequence & outcome  Extended range in mountain regions of North and South Africa.  Increased prevalence and damage potential in all potato-producing countries of Africa A Pest Distribution and Risk Atlas for Africa is in preparation (Kroschel et al 2015)
  19. 19. Climate change – trend impacts Aquaculture and Epizootic Ulcerative Syndrome Epizootic Ulcerative Syndrome (EUS)  Aquaculture is in its infancy in Africa – but huge potential  Aquaculture experiences higher cumulative mortalities in tropics than cooler regions Climate change consequence & outcome  The spread of EUS up and downstream of the Zambezi river  This would impact on fish catches in the delta
  20. 20. Climate change – shock impacts Drought tolerance and Maize Lethal Necrosis Maize Lethal Necrosis (MLN)  A viral disease of maize, first reported in Kenya in 2011, and now widespread across East Africa  Seed transmitted  All main cultivars of maize are susceptible to MLN  Maize is the staple crop for Africa Climate change consequence & outcome  A major breeding programme for drought tolerant maize is now at risk as all varieties in development are susceptible to MLN  A solution to MLN and available to acceptable in Maize Lethal Necrosis a new entry pest for Africa is described as a fire by farmers
  21. 21. Climate change – shock impacts Failed harvests and new trade pathways New Trade routes  Frequency of extreme weather events will increase and harvests will fail more frequently  Markets will adapt via new import trade pathways  New pest threats will be associated with these pathways  Pests of key crops are geographically isolated within and between continents Climate change consequence  The likelihood of pests gaining entry to new regions is increased by new trade pathways, especially when these are responding to a shock and not with a proper risk assessment Banana Xanthomas Wilt has spread across East Africa but remains absent from other regions of Africa and the world
  22. 22. Recommendations for action Embedding resilience into future systems  Enhance capacity of regional, national and local organizations  Promote multi country coordination approaches  Improve data quality and quantity  Support pre-emptive breeding  Invest in resilience of production systems  Invest in research and development
  23. 23. Thank you For more information: See CCAFS Info Note: Impact of climate change on African agriculture: focus on pests and diseases
  24. 24. SBSTA 42 Side Event on ‘Filling the Evidence Gap: Linking Agricultural and Climate Change Science and Policy in Africa’
  25. 25. Enabling research-to-policy dialogue for adaptation to climate change in Africa: The AfricaInteract experience. By Dr. Abdulai Jalloh, Programme Manager, NRM CORAF/WECARD Presentation at the CCAFS side event : Filling the Evidence Gap: Linking Agricultural and Climate Change Science and Policy in Africa June 6, 2015, Bonn, Germany
  26. 26. Introduction • Diversified pace and extent of climate change and its impacts on different sub-regions, sectors, nations, and communities in Africa. • Prevailing uncertainty makes policy decisions more complex • Need for Africa to build its knowledge and analytical base and to strengthen the capacity of institutions to tackle climate change challenges. • Need for science to inform policy
  27. 27. • Promote and support effective documentation and sharing of information to improve climate change adaptation policy in Africa • Identify policy gaps and promote the integration of climate change research into development policies, strategies, programs and projects at continental and sub-regional levels AfricaInteract: Enabling research-policy- dialogue for adaptation to climate change
  28. 28. Key activities • Organize strategic workshops and round tables involving research scientists and decision-makers • Train target groups on key issues to enable them to effectively analyze climate change issues and negotiate effectively • Provide support for identified champions to attend international conferences and effectively articulate Africa’s position on climate change
  29. 29. Review of research and policy • Sectors: Agriculture, health and urban areas • Water and gender as cross cutting issues. Relevant information to improve evidence-based policy making aimed at enhancing livelihoods and protecting populations vulnerable to climate change.
  30. 30. Findings – research/Poilcy • Rapidly growing body of evidence on impacts of climate change on agriculture, particularly crop systems • Increasing evidence of autonomous adaptation by crop farmers, pastoralists and fisherfolk, using local knowledge • Much adaptation happens despite lack of institutional support, but growing focus around ‘climate-smart’ farming systems • Impacts of climate change and variability on agriculture is moderated by political, economic and social factors
  31. 31. Agriculture: key recommendations • Adaptation measures should be tested for contribution to resilience across entire food chain • Further research to field test promising ‘climate smart’ agricultural technologies and practices • Need to tackle root causes for vulnerability in the agricultural sector such as resource access and property rights, closely linked with gender concerns • Need more focus on fisheries and pastoralist systems as compared to crop farming systems • Need for better coordination and coherence between agriculture and environment ministries
  32. 32. Key achievements More than 1500 key stakeholders including policymakers, scientists, development workers and farmers linked At lest 100 high level decision makers/decision influencing positions have increased appreciation of the need for informed policy formulation More than 100 senior scientists in sub Saharan Africa have increased awareness and appreciation of the need for effective linkage with policy makers Key research and policy gaps and options identified; policy options proposed
  33. 33. AGNES - African scientists linked to and supporting the African Group of Negotiators
  34. 34. Challenges/Lessons Learned • Identifying and mobilizing the real key stakeholders • Targeting key institutions • Quality and packaging of evidence is crucial • Flexibility in approach
  35. 35. Thank you/Merci http://africainteract.coraf.org/en/
  36. 36. SBSTA 42 Side Event on ‘Filling the Evidence Gap: Linking Agricultural and Climate Change Science and Policy in Africa’
  37. 37. Questions Answers &
  38. 38. Launch of the CCAFS Info Notes and UNFCCC Guidance to Negotiations Toolkit Dr. James Kinyangi
  39. 39. New briefs highlight critical agriculture issues in the UN climate talks How will climate change impact smallholder farmers, fishers and pastoralists, and what are some of their options for adapting?
  40. 40. DOWNLOAD THE INFO NOTES SUMMARIZING THE SUBMISSIONS Coffey K, Haile M, Halperin M, Wamukoya G, Hansen J, Kinyangi J, Tesfaye Fantaye K, Dinesh D. 2015. Improving early warning systems for agricultural resilience in Africa. Dinesh D, Bett B, Boone R, Grace D, Kinyangi J, Lindahl J, Mohan CV, Ramirez-Villegas J, Robinson R, Rosenstock T, Smith J and Thornton P. 2015. Impact of climate change on African agriculture: focus on pests and diseases.
  41. 41. DOWNLOAD THE FULL SUBMISSIONS AND BACKGROUND PAPERS Coffey K, Menghestab H, Halperin M, Wamukoya G, Hansen J, Kinyangi J, Tesfaye Fantaye K. 2015. Expanding the contribution of early warning to climate-resilient agricultural development in Africa. CCAFS Working Paper no. 115 Grace D, Bett B, Lindahl J, Robinson T. 2015. Climate and Livestock Disease: assessing the vulnerability of agricultural systems to livestock pests under climate change scenarios. CCAFS Working Paper No. 116. Mohan CV. 2015. Climate Change and Aquatic Animal Disease. CCAFS Working Paper No. 117. Ramirez-Villegas J, Thornton PK. 2015. Climate change impacts on African crop production. CCAFS Working Paper No. 119. Smith J. 2015. Crops, crop pests and climate change –why Africa needs to better prepared. CCAFS Working Paper No. 114. Thornton PK, Boone RB, Ramirez-Villegas J. 2015. Climate change impacts on livestock. CCAFS Working Paper No. 120.
  42. 42. LEARN MORE ABOUT AGRICULTURE IN THE NEGOTIATIONS
  43. 43. SBSTA 42 Side Event on ‘Filling the Evidence Gap: Linking Agricultural and Climate Change Science and Policy in Africa’

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