"In our view, though, investment students need only two well-taught courses - How to Value a Business, and How to Think About Market Prices."-Warren Buffett
11. 投資人做投資決策時至少面臨兩種困難 - 第一來自於人可能犯錯,第二則
來自於競爭。投資者對未來的估計可能發生錯誤,即使預估正確,目前的
市場價格仍可能已經充分反映所預期的結果。
The investor faces obstacles of two kinds—the first stemming from human fallibility and the
second from the nature of his competition. He may be wrong in his estimate of the future; or
even if he is right, the current market price may already fully reflect what he is anticipating.
(P.31,Ch1)
13. 安全邊際 : 根據定義,在價格與評估價 間存在有利的價差,這個價差就值
是安全邊際,它可以吸收計算上的錯估或差勁的運氣。
by definition, a favorable difference between price on the one hand and indicated or appraised
value on the other. That difference is the safety margin. It is available for absorbing the effect
of miscalculations or worse than average luck.(P518,Ch20)
47. “Beta is a more or less useful measure of past price fluctuations of common
stocks. What bothers me is that authorities now equate the beta idea with the
concept of risk. Price variability yes; risk no. Real investment risk is measured not
by the percent that a stock may decline in price in relation to the general market
in a given period, but by the danger of a loss of quality and earnings power
through economic changes or deterioration in management.” —Benjamin Graham
真正的投資風險不是個股股價與大盤間的波動關
係,而是公司品質與盈餘能力喪失的危險程度。
48. The riskiness of an investment is not measured by beta (a Wall Street
term encompassing volatility and often used in measuring risk) but
rather by the probability — the reasoned probability — of that
investment causing its owner a loss of purchasing power over his
contemplated holding period. -Warren Buffett ,”Why stocks beat gold and bonds”,Fortune
衡量投資的風險不是華爾街使用的
beta ,而是投資造成購買力損失的可
能性
講師拍攝於 2014 年波克夏股東大會
49. Seth Klarman:
如果只以過去價格波動作為證券風險的指標,這是非
常荒謬的事情。
I find it preposterous that a single number reflecting past price
fluctuations could be thought to completely describe the risk in a
security.-Seth Klarman,”Margin of Safety”
58. 對風險的正確態度
Tomorrow is always uncertain. And if you can’t predict
what tomorrow will bring, you must be prepared for
whatever it does. – 2014 Warren Buffett to the
shareholder of BRK
明天永遠是不確定的。既然你無法預測
明天會帶來什麼,那你就必須為任何可
能做好準備。
講師拍攝於 201 4 年波克夏股東大會
64. There is no single correct discount rate for a set of future
cash flows and no precise way to choose one. The appropriate
discount rate for a particular investment depends not only on
an investor‘s preference for present over future consumption
but also on his or her own risk profile, on the perceived risk
of the investment under consideration, and on the returns
available from alternative investments.- Seth Klarman
65. 拍攝於 2014 年波克夏股東會
股東 : 目前資金成本多少 ?
巴菲特 : 第二選擇就是我們的資金成本。我
們最好的點子必須超過第二選擇。我已經聽
過太多計算資金成本的方法…
Warren Buffett: Cost of capital is what can be
produced by our second best idea. Our best
idea has to exceed that. We’ve heard so
many discussions on how to figure out the
cost of capital…
67. S & P 500 Total
Return Index
10 years TR of S&P 500
2005/2/28 1,792.63
2015/2/27 3,866.42
CAGR 7.99%
Source :
http://www.dailyfinance.com/quote/snpindex/sp-
500-total-return-index/%5Esp5tri
100. 從公司 ( 債權人
及股東 ) 的角度
名稱 會計定義
NI, net income available to
common shareholders
淨利
NCC, net noncash charges 折舊、攤銷…等
Int, interest expense 利息費用
FCInv, investment in fixed
capital
資本支出
WCInv, Investment in working
capital
( 流動資產 - 流動負債 )