Arthur D. Little Automotive report October 2020

Automotive Report
Analysis of New Car Registrations
October 2020

2
Analysis of New Car Registrations in Europe and Italy
* EU (27 Countries) + EFTA Countries (Iceland, Norway, Switzerland) + UK; ** Δ% October 2020 / October 2019
Executive Summary
◼ Areas: North-East -0,8%, North-West -5,4%, Centre +2,6%, South +9,6% and Islands +3,0%,
in volume in October 2020 compared to October 2019
◼ Customer segments: Retail -23,6%, Fleet -37,6% and Business -44,9% in volume in October
2020YTD compared to October 2019YTD
◼ Brands: among the Top 15 by volume, smallest decrease for BMW -23,0%, KIA -23,8% and
Mercedes-Benz -24,8% in October 2020YTD compared to October 2019YTD
◼ Premium brands: among the Top 15 by volume Audi -24,9%, Mercedes-Benz -24,8% and
BMW -23,0% in volume in October 2020YTD compared to October 2019YTD
◼ Top 3 Countries by increase in new registrations: Norway +23,6%, Romania +17,6% and
Iceland +12,0% in volume in October 2020 compared to October 2019
◼ Top 3 Countries by market share: Germany 23,9% (+1,2 p.p.), UK 14,3% (-0,8 p.p.) and
France 13,8% (+0,1 p.p.) in October 2020YTD compared to October 2019YTD
◼ Brands: among the Top 15 by volume, smallest decrease for Toyota -16,6%, Skoda -17,9%
and Kia -18,0% in October 2020YTD compared to October 2019YTD
◼ Premium brands:Audi -22,1%, BMW -21,1% and Mercedes-Benz -19,7% in volume in
October 2020YTD compared to October 2019YTD
Europe*
Italy
-7,1%**
-0,2%**

3
Agenda
1 Europe
2 Italy
3 New Car Models Launches in Italy
4 Focus on EVs PC in EU & Italy

4
Agenda
1 Europe
1.1 Market Overview
1.2 New Car Registrations by Brand
2 Italy

5
Top 10 European Markets* – October 2020 vs October 2019
Europe – Market Overview
Source: ACEA, Arthur D. Little Analysis, Sweden Transport Analysis Agency
EU New Car Registrations
1.129.223 1.215.163
2020 2019
-7,1%
* EU (27 Countries) + EFTA Countries (Iceland, Norway, Switzerland) + UK
##
#°
##
Ranking on October 2020 data
New Car Registrations in October 2020
Δ% October 2020 / October 2019
-0,2
3°
156.978
-3,4
10°
24.274
-14,6
6°
40.064
1°
274.303
-21,0
5°
74.228
-9,5
2°
171.050
-1,6
4°
140.945
-3,6
During the month of October the EU passenger car market has interrupted the growth trend started
in September. It was given by mixed results (increase for 4 out of 30 countries and decrease for 26
countries). However, 30 countries still show negative sign if compared first nine months of 2020 vs.
first nine months of 2019 (from -10,6% up to -43,5%)
-9,4
7°
38.703
-5,0
9°
28.147
◼ The second wave of COVID-19 in EU
slipped back PC market into negative
territory again. The cumulative performance
is still severely impacted (-27,3% or
3.635.632 units sold less in first nine month
of 2020 vs. 2019)
8°
31.988
-5,3

6
On a year-to-date basis, European PC registrations (9.696.928 units in total) decreased by -27,3% compared to
2019YTD.The Market Share in Top 5 European Markets decreased for 3 major markets (UK, Italy and Spain) except
Germany and France (that show positive signs for the third month in a row)
Top 10 European Markets* – October 2020YTD
Source: ACEA, Arthur D. Little Analysis
Europe – Market Overview
Highlights Market Share
# Country
October
2020 YTD
∆ Vs 2019
1 Germany 23,9% 1,2%
2 UK 14,3% -0,8%
3 France 13,8% 0,1%
4 Italy 11,6% -0,6%
5 Spain 6,9% -1,0%
6 Belgium 3,8% 0,2%
7 Poland 3,5% 0,0%
8 Netherlands 2,9% 0,2%
9 Sweden 2,4% 0,3%
10 Austria 2,1% 0,0%
-23,4
-31,0
-26,9
-30,9
-36,8
-22,8
-26,8
-23,1
-16,8
-27,7
Market Share
∆ % Volume
October 20/19
* EU (27 Countries) + EFTA Countries (Iceland, Norway, Switzerland) + UK
20%
New Car Registrations October 2020
YTD
10%
-30
-45
-15
-20
-25
-40
-35

7
Top 15 – October 2020YTD
Europe – New Car Registrations by Brand
Source: ACEA, Arthur D. Little Analysis
∆ M.S.
20/19
-0,02 0,03 0,01 0,10 -0,08 0,08 0,15 0,13 0,07 -0,03 -0,25 -0,07 0,13 0,01 -0,07
Vol.’20 1.068.412 664.684 603.224 598.125 540.327 539.141 528.903 526.540 491.926 397.911 397.202 372.564 353.052 348.255 329.868 9.696.928
M.S.’20 11,0% 6,9% 6,2% 6,2% 5,6% 5,6% 5,5% 5,4% 5,1% 4,1% 4,1% 3,8% 3,6% 3,6% 3,4%
-28,7
-25,0 -26,3
-19,7
-33,2
-21,1
-16,6 -17,9
-22,1
-29,3
-45,5
-32,3
-18,0
-26,6
-32,4
-27,3
∆ %
20/19
Tot.**
*
* Opel includes Vauxhall New Car Registrations; ** EU (27 Countries) + EFTA Countries (Iceland, Norway, Switzerland) + UK

8
Agenda
1 Europe
2 Italy
2.1 Market Overview
2.2 Market Highlights
2.3 New Car Registrations by Brand
2.4 New Car Registrations by Group
2.5 New Car Registrations by Fuel Type

9
Italian Market –Variation of New Car Registrations 2020 vs 2019
Italy – Market Overview
Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis ∆’19/’18 ∆’20/’19
In September,after eight months of recession due to the COVID-19 outbreak, the market has recorded the first encouraging sign
of recovery (+9,5% vs. September 2019). However, in October the negative trend turned back (-0.2% vs. October 2019) and in the
first 9 months the market has lost one third of its volume (-30.9% with 1.123.194 units compared to 1.625.500 in January-October
2019), with a final balance of 502.306 units sold less. Private segment in October was recovering better than other segments (-
23.6% for Private, -37.6% for Fleet and -44.9% for Business). Main optimistic numbers are related yet again to EV sales (+205.1% in
October 2020 vs. 2019 with 2.889 registered units this month) and hybrid sales (+237.8% or 30.090 units registered more than in
October 2019).At this point it is very clear the need to give more continuity to the support of the Automotive sector.
October 2020
MayFebruary
-3,1%
-23,1%
JuneMarch
1,5%
-9,6%
April DecemberAugust September October
-2,1%
-7,5%
-2,4%
-8,8%
-85,4%
-97,6%
-1,2%
12,5%
-49,6%
-0,1%
-11,0%
6,7%
-0,4%
13,4%
2,2%
-0,2%
9,5%
January July
-5,9%
November

10
17,9
15,7
15,2
8,9
8,1
3,5
-3,0
-4,8
-11,6
-24,8
Italian Market – October 2020 vs October 2019
Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis
Italy – Market Overview
2015
2014
156.978 157.262
-0,2%
2019
-5,4%
North-West
47.665
Islands
9.096
-0,8%
North-East
45.320
+2,6%
Centre
36.024
South
18.873
##
aa
##
Region
New Car Registrations in October 2020
Growth of theTop 10
brands by volumes
6
+3.0%
+9,6%
2020

11
Diesel
34,4%
Petrol
38,8%
LPG
6,7%
CNG* 2,3%
EV*
17,8%
Other
26,8%
Italian Market – October 2020YTD vs October 2019YTD
Italy – Market Highlights
Analysis by “Customer Segment” Analysis by “FuelType”
Analysis by “Geographical Area” Analysis by “Car Segment”
712.833
247.625
162.735
932.947
397.024
295.529
Retail Fleet Business
-23,6% -37,6% -44,9%∆’20/’19
338.161 359.384
243.608
122.073
59.968
497.123
542.064
334.024
166.512
85.778
North-West IslandsNorth-East Centre South
181.190
1.123.194
415.073
362.608
139.951 20.414 3.958
ECA B D TotalF
-33,3% -27,4% -34,6% -27,5% -31,5% -17,8%-32,0% -33,7% -27,1% -26,7% -30,1%
2020
2019
∆’20/’19 ∆’20/’19
2020
2019
-41,7
-38,7
∆% Volume October 2020 / October 2019
(YTD)* CNG: Compressed Natural Gas (Methane and Ethanol); EV: Electric Vehicle (Hybrid and Electric)
1.123.194
1.625.500
2019
2020
-30,9
+93,7
-35,7
-17,4

12
Italian Market – Distribution channels – October 2020YTD vs October
2019YTD
Italy – Market Highlights
∆% Volume October 2020 / October 2019
(YTD)*) Self-registrations related to LTR&STR use made by Dealers and OEMs;
**) Including Dealers and OEMs self-registrations not related to LTR & STR
Retail
Private Customers
-37,6%
MS:
22,0%
2020
397,0
32,7 20,5
235,5
128,8
2019
169,5
57,6
247,6-28.0%
-23,6%
MS:
63,5%
-44,9%
MS:
14,5%-55.3%
-37,2%
81,3
214,2
2019
57,4
2020
105,3
295,5
162,7
-29,3%
20202019
712,8
932,9
-23,6%
-50,8%
Private Customers STRLTR Captive LTR&STR* Companies Captive self-registrations
◼ Respect October 2019YTD, in 2020, Retail
segment of the Italian market was
recovering better than other segments
(220.114 units sold less) and has increased
its Market ShareYTD (57.4% in October
2019 vs. 63.5% in October 2020)
◼ All of Fleet subsegments decreased in
October 2020YTD due to COVID-19
outbreak: STR segment (-55,3% or 71.240
units sold less vs. October 2019).The drop of
LTR segment was also relevant (-28.0% or
65.998 units sold less vs. October 2019)
◼ The decrease of the Business segment
registrations in October 2020YTD vs.
October 2019YTD was related both to the
reduction of Captive self-registrations (-50.8%
or 108.934 units less sold) and Company
registrations (-29,3% or 23.859 units less sold)
Fleet
LTR, STR and Captive LTR&STR*
Business
Company registrations**
Market Share YTD increase / decrease

13
New Car Registrations by Brand – October 2020YTD (1/3)
Italy – New Car Registrations by Brand
170.338
103.642
74.468 67.914 65.790 55.366 52.255 47.100 45.463 43.644 40.625 38.495 37.589 34.078 30.721
-30,4 -31,8 -27,8 -29,1 -30,3 -28,0 -30,2 -32,5
-48,2
-39,0
-24,9 -24,8 -23,0
-32,5
-23,8
Volume
∆Volume
20/19 %
∆ M.S.
20/19 %
Market
Share %
0,11 -0,11 0,28 0,16 0,05 0,20 0,04 -0,11 -1,35 -0,51 0,29 0,28 0,35 -0,08 0,26
15,17 9,23 6,63 6,05 5,86 4,93 4,65 4,19 4,05 3,89 3,62 3,43 3,35 3,03 2,74

14
29.020 27.388
22.896
20.627
17.582
13.889 13.548 13.337
9.774 8.596
5.752 4.767 3.886 3.604 3.331
-30,1
-13,9
-38,9
-9,3
-22,4 -20,8
-37,9
-27,0 -31,3
-17,1 -21,7 -16,4
10,7
-46,1
-29,2
Volume
∆Volume
20/19 %
∆ M.S.
20/19 %
Market
Share %
0,02 0,48 -0,27 0,44 0,18 0,16 -0,13 0,07 -0,01 0,13 0,06 0,07 0,13 -0,09 0,01
2,58 2,44 2,04 1,84 1,57 1,24 1,21 1,19 0,87 0,77 0,51 0,42 0,35 0,32 0,30

15
3.319
2.921 2.701 2.618
1.670
1.039 1.036 998
448 303 244 36 12 4
-85,0 -59,2 -21,8
34,3
-20,2 -42,5
22,2
-51,3
-2,6
359,1
-14,7 -26,5
-95,0 -88,9
Volume
∆Volume
20/19 %
∆ M.S.
20/19 %
Market
Share %
-1,06 -0,18 0,03 0,11 0,02 -0,02 -0,01 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00
0,30 0,26 0,24 0,23 0,15 0,09 0,09 0,09 0,04 0,03 0,02 0,00 0,00 0,00

16
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
New Car Registrations by Group – Top 15 – October 2020YTD
Italy – New Car Registrations by Group
23,7
16,3
14,9
9,9
6,6
5,3
5,2
4,5
3,7
2,4
2,0
1,2
1,1
0,8
0,5
Top 5: 71,5%
Top 10: 92,7%
-27,8%
-31,5%
-27,0%
-27,4%
-35,8%
-33,3%
-28,1%
-24,1%
-39,3%
-43,0%
-13,9%
-20,8%
-40,6%
-17,1%
-21,7%
266.551
182.720
167.394
111.558
74.468
59.741
58.697
50.926
41.814
27.388
22.908
13.889
12.695
8.596
5.752
FCA
Volkswagen
PSA
Renault
Ford
Hyundai Kia
Toyota
BMW
Daimler
Suzuki
Nissan
Volvo
JLR
Mazda
Honda
Market Share
(%)
DeltaVolume
‘20 vs ‘19
VolumeGroup Brand

17
New Car Registrations by Fuel Type –Top 10 – Petrol and Diesel
Italy – New Car Registrations by FuelType








































DieselPetrol
October 2020 2020YTD
 Ranking variation compared to previous period
4.773
3.948
2.351
1.883
1.612
1.478
1.397
1.274
1.242
1.184
56.816
18.503
18.204
14.785
13.235
12.844
12.449
11.871
11.303
11.189
2.217
1.845
1.576
1.575
1.571
1.431
1.304
1.156
1.086
1.070
500X
COMPASS
RENEGADE
3008
QASHQAI
T-ROC
TIGUAN
2008
FOCUS
SERIE1
PANDA
C3
YPSILON
CORSA
POLO
T-CROSS
208
AYGO
500X
CLIO
COMPASS
RENEGADE
500X
3008
T-ROC
TIGUAN
QASHQAI
TIPO
500L
CLIO
16.440
15.024
14.474
11.380
10.855
10.458
9.111
9.050
8.283
8.184
PANDA
C3
CORSA
208
AYGO
RENEGADE
POLO
CLIO
500X
2008

18
2.067
1.909
1.763
989
882
733
543
466
396
378
New Car Registrations by Fuel Type –Top 10 – LPG and CNG




















CNGLPG




















4.504
3.652
2.911
2.681
2.512
2.029
1.825
1.700
1.246
663
577
505
414
181
168
144
124
101
87
76
CAPTUR
DUSTER
SANDERO
CLIO
PANDA
YPSILON
STONIC
FIESTA
PICANTO
SPORTAGE
DUSTER
PANDA
SANDERO
YPSILON
CAPTUR
CLIO
FIESTA
STONIC
PICANTO
SPORTAGE
GOLF
ARONA
POLO
OCTAVIA
PANDA
UP!
KAMIQ
LEON
IBIZA
A3
KAMIQ
ARONA
PANDA
UP!
IBIZA
GOLF
OCTAVIA
YPSILON
CADDY
POLO
11.903
9.598
8.420
7.694
7.093
6.709
4.048
3.514
3.313
2.795

19
9.025
4.162
3.209
2.880
2.272
2.130
1.691
1.079
765
678
New Car Registrations by Fuel Type –Top 10 – Hybrid and Pure Electric
(*) Mild Hybrid Electric Vehicle (MHEV), Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV), Full Hybrid; (**) Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV)










PureElectric(**)Hybrid(*)




















571
304
258
234
198
149
129
108
100
97
PANDA
YARIS
YPSILON
500
PUMA
IGNIS
SWIFT
C-HR
VITARA
FOCUS
PANDA
YARIS
PUMA
500
C-HR
IGNIS
SWIFT
YPSILON
COROLLA
RAV4
ZOE
FORTWO
MODEL 3
UP!
208
KONA
CORSA
LEAF
MINI
FORFOUR
FORTWO
ZOE
KONA
ID.3
UP!
MINI
CORSA
FORFOUR
208
2008
21.539
14.927
13.820
10.355
9.856
8.892
7.873
7.646
6.567
5.549
3.751
2.735
2.258
1.816
1.380
1.016
963
958
667
543











20
New Car Registrations of Hybrid vs Pure ElectricVehicles
Italy – Focus on ElectricVehicles Market in Italy
56.332
76.962
103.281
200.067
20202017 2018 2019
EV Registrations Trend
Volume, DeltaYoY, EV Market Share October ‘20YTD
Hybrid and Pure ElectricVehicles Trend
Volume October ‘20YTD
Delta
YoY
72,7% 36,6% 34,2% 93,7%
M.S. 3,3% 4,7% 6,4% 17,8%
CAGR
94,6%
2017
2,9%
97,1%
5,4%
91,7%
2018
8,3%
2019
10,1%
89,9%
2020
HybridElectric
+130,8%
+89,9%
Successful new models
Top selled in October ‘20
Hybrid
– Fiat Panda (+ 9.025 units in October’ 20, +21.539 unitsYTD)
– Ford Puma (+2.272 units in October ’20, +13.820 unitsYTD)

21
Overview of New Car Registrations by Segment
Italy – New Car Registrations by Segment
Segments Growth in Market Share* Market Share andVolume**
-0,6%
D
«Executive»
+1,8%
B
«Supermini»
+0,1%
E
«Luxury»
-1,8%
C
«Medium»
-0,0%
F
«Ultra Luxury»
12,5%
16,1%
B
D
A
C
37,0%
32,3%
1,8%E
0,4%F
100,0%Tot.
181.190
415.073
362.608
139.951
20.414
1.123.194
3.958
A
«Utility/City»
* Δ% October 2020 YTD / October 2019 YTD; ** Market Share and Volume October 2020 YTD
+0,6%

22
Segment A and Segment B –Top 10 – October 2020YTD
A
“Utility/City”
B
“Supermini”
90.469
22.443
11.871 9.328 9.047 8.949 7.965 5.829 4.412 3.631
C1PANDA I10500 AYGO IGNIS UP! PICANTO TWINGO 108
34.089
26.650
23.312
21.658 20.922 20.843 20.124 19.696 19.537 18.625
CORSA YARISYPSILON PUMACLIO CAPTURC3 SANDERO POLO 208
∆ Vol. %
20/19 YTD
∆ Vol. %
20/19 YTD
Segment A has registered a decrease in terms of
MS (-0,6 p.p), while Segment B have registered
an increase (+1,8 p.p. vs October 2019YTD).
But in terms of volumes, both Segment A and
Segment B, in October 2020 have decreased vs.
October 2019 (-33,3% and -27,4% respectively)
-22,6% -28,6% -10,8% 21,9% -39,2% -2,6% -26,1% -11,4% -40,6% -27,6%
-32,5% -27,3% -35,5% -29,0% -17,5% 2,0% -37,0% N/A -34,7% -33,0%

23
Segment C and Segment D –Top 10 – October 2020YTD
C
“Medium”
D
“Executive”
25.778 25.061
20.880 20.399 19.574
16.304 15.440 14.178 13.771 12.674
TIPO500X RENEGADE 3008T-ROCDUSTER COMPASS GOLF QASHQAI ECOSPORT
14.499
9.213
7.885 7.675
6.366
5.549 5.418 5.275 5.247 4.998
X1TIGUAN OCTAVIAA4Q3 KUGA STELVIO RAV4 RANGE
ROVER
EVOQUE
GLA
∆ Vol. %
20/19 YTD
∆ Vol. %
20/19 YTD
-29,1% -31,5% -42,3% -33,0% -44,2% -31,6% -26,0% -37,6% -38,7% -52,2%
-30,2% -6,8% -19,7% -43,8% -36,5% -37,2% -11,8% -18,7% -12,5% -24,5%
Medium Segment and Executive Segment continue to
have a bad performance registering another
consecutive drop (respectively -34,6% and -27,5%
compared to October 2019). But in terms of MS on
YTD basis Segment C decreased (-1,8 p.p) while
Segment D increased (+0,6 p.p)

24
Segment E and Segment F – Top 10 – October 2020YTD
E
“Luxury”
F
“Ultra Luxury”
1.018
313
232 228
180 180 166 158 156 149
TAYCAN MODEL X SERIE 7911 GHIBLI PANAMERA MODEL S A8 F-TYPE 488
∆ Vol. %
20/19 YTD
∆ Vol. %
20/19 YTD
98,8% -45,8% -45,3% -16,9% -43,2% -29,7% 7,5% -59,8% -20,3% 60,9%
4,5% -45,6% -43,1% N/A -15,9% -5,8% -37,8% -17,3% 2,0% -9,7%
2.101 2.027
1.825
1.516 1.446
1.342
1.215 1.207
904
795
CLASSE EQ8SERIE 5GLE A6 X5 X6CAYENNERANGE
ROVER
SPORT
XC90
Segment E remained stable (+0.0 p.p) and Segment F has
slightly increased in terms of market shares (+0.1 p.p
respectively).While Segment F, despite COVID-19, has
lost only 17,8% (or 854 units sold less vs. October 2019),
the drop of Segment E was more relevant (-31,5% or
9,367 units less vs. October 2019)

25
Agenda
1 Europe
2 Italy

26
New Models Launch per Brand – Roadmap 2020 (1/5)
Source: Quattroruote; Arthur D. Little Analysis
New Car Models Launches in Italy
Jan Feb Mar Apr
Oct
ober
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
A
B
C
D
F
Commercial Launch of New Model
Facelift / Technical Update
Premiere
Launch Concluded
Launch Postponed
Launch Anticipated
(P)
E-TronA3
Tonale
C5 Aircross
X6
Serie 2 Active
Tourer
Q5Q4 e-Tron
M 3 X5 M
Serie 4
Coupè
C4
RomaSF 90 812 GTS
Panda Mild
Hybrid
Giulia Plug-in Stelvio Plug-In
A5
iX3
DS 9
F8 Spider
500 Full Electric500 Mild Hybrid
Sandero
◼ The launch plans announced by
OEMs could be delayed/reversed
due to the contingent market
situation

27
Jan Feb Mar Apr
Oct
ober
F
G
H
I
J
K
Premiere
Launch Concluded
Launch Postponed
Launch Anticipated
(P)
Kuga
XCeed
Wrangler
Grand CherokeeRenegadeCompass
Mustang
Mach-E
Explorer
Plug-In
i 10
Jazz Hybrid
F Type XJ Electric
e-Soul
situation

28
Jan Feb Mar Apr
Oct
ober
L
M
Premiere
Launch Concluded
Launch Postponed
Launch Anticipated
(P)
Road Rover
GLA
MX-30
E-Class S-ClassGLS
2 Hybrid
Ghibli
Mini Full Electric
UX 300e
Ypsilon Mild
Hybrid
Urus Plug-In
situation

29
Premiere
Launch Concluded
Launch Postponed
Launch Anticipated
Jan Feb Mar Apr
Oct
ober
M
N
O
P
R
S
(P)
Zoe
El Born
Mokka X
508 Plug-In
3008 Plug-In
InsigniaCorsa-e
Spacestar
ASX
Clio E-Tech
Captur E-tech
Leon
Cupra
Formentor
Octavia
situation

30
Premiere
Launch Concluded
Launch Postponed
Launch Anticipated
Jan Feb Mar Apr
Oct
ober
S
T
V
(P)
Model Y
ID.3
1) EQ fortwo
2) EQ forfour
Yaris
XV Hybrid
Vitara Hybrid
S-Cross Hybrid
MiraiRav 4 Plug-In
ID.4
XC 40 Recharge
situation

31
Agenda
1 Europe
2 Italy

32
Over the last five years, alternative-powered vehicles market share has
constantly increased both in EU and in Italy
Source: Acea, UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis; *) BEVs: Battery Electric Vehicles; PHEVs: Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles; Hybrids: mild and full hybrid electric vehicles;
FCEVs: Fuel cell electric vehicles; Other: natural gas vehicles
Focus on EVs PC in EU & Italy
26,9%
2016
4,2%
44,2%
2015 20182017
51,5% 49,2%
46,6%
4,3%
50,3%
44,0%
50,9%
5,7%
56,6%
35,9%
7,5%
58,9%
2019
10,6%
30,5%
22,1%
Q1-Q3 2020
55,4%
31,2%
Q1-Q3 2020
51,2%
13,4%
32,8%
2015
10,2%
57,0%
2016
31,9%
56,4%
11,7%
2017
35,5% 44,4%
13,3%
2018
39,8%
15,8%
2019
40,0%
34,9%
25,1%
AlternativePetrol Diesel
13.67 14.58 15.03 15.05 15.23 8.53 1.58 1.83 1.97 1.91 1.92 0.97
Alternative-powered Vehicles* CAGR %
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 (‘20-’15)
BEVs 0.7% 0.7% 0.9% 2% 3.5% 7.2% 60.0%
PHEVs 0.4% 0.8% 1.3% 2% 2.2% 5.1% 64.6%
Hybrids 12% 20% 27.6% 32.2% 36.4% 51.8% 34.1%
FCEVs 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Other APVs 86.9% 78.5% 70.3% 63.9% 57.9% 35.9% -16.2%
Total (mln) 0.21 0.19 0.23 0.25 0.3 0.24 2.9%
Alternative-powered Vehicles* CAGR %
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 (‘20-’15)
BEVs 10.1% 10.4% 11.5% 13.1% 17.7% 22.1% 17%
PHEVs 15.2% 15.1% 14.1% 13.5% 10.8% 18.6% 4.1%
Hybrids 37.3% 45.7% 50.1% 53% 55.6% 52.0% 6.8%
FCEVs 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% -
Other APVs 37.4% 28.8% 24.2% 20.3% 15.9% 7.3% -27.8%
Total (Mln) 0.59 0.61 0.85 1.3 1.6 1.9 26.4%
New car registrations by fuel type (in % of MS)
The demonization of diesel has brought to the gradual decrease of its MS during the last 6 years both in UE and Italy. Still, diesel cars were
replaced by alternatively-powered vehicles only partially. Petrol cars were gaining round much faster until the end of 2019
New car registrations
Mln
UE + EFTA + UK Italy
Market Share YTD increase / decrease
+17.8
+6.7
-24.6
+11.7
+8.8
-20.5
Δ p.p Δ p.p

33
Despite the growing percentage of new ECVs* and other APVs**, CO2
emissions have increased in the last few years both in EU and in Italy
Source: EAFO, Acea, UNRAE, ;
*) ECVs = BEV + PHEV; **) APVs: Alternatively-powered vehicles
Absolute registrations growth (2019 vs. 2018) and CO2 Emissions (CO2e g/km)
EU + EFTA + UK
123
120
-0,5
-1,0
-1,5 0
1210,0
0,5
119
1,0
1220,44
118
2019
0,28
0,14
2015 20182016
-1,21
2017
0,68
0,10
0,76
0,96
0,02
0,76
-0,56
0,24
0,44 0,48
121
-0,75
120
119
122
Diesel
CO2
Petrol
Alternative**
114
-0,20
117
0
-0,05
115
-0,25
-0,15
-0,10
0,00
0,05
0,10
0,15
0,20
116
113
120
118
119
0,17
113
0,04
0,11
2016
0,03 0,02
2015
0,05
115
112
2018
115
2019
0,10
0,13
-0,01
2017
-0,03
0,07
-0,13
-0,22
0,05
1190,17
Italy
Delta 2019/2018 of new
car registrations, Mln
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Petrol 12.7% 12.6% 11.2% 12.7% 5.2%
Diesel 6.7% 1.9% -7.8% -18.4% -13.9%
Alternative** 20.7% 4.2% 39.4% 32.5% 42.9%
New car registrations
growth rate
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Petrol 24.8% 21.8% 4.9% 7.9% 25.7%
Diesel 16.8% 19.3% 6.9% -12.1% -22%
Alternative** -3.7% -12% 23.8% 10.4% 18.8%
◼ Notwithstanding the increasing purchases of alternative-powered vehicles, CO2 emissions of new registered PCs have surprisingly started to grow again
during the last years
◼ Numbers show that diesel vehicles were substituted by APVs only partially, while the majority opted for petrol-vehicles, characterized by higher CO2
emissions when compared to both diesel and alternative vehicles
◼ Moreover, consumers’ preferences have changed: they opt always more for vehicle type (SUV & Cross-over) that have a stronger negative impact on
CO2 emissions

34
The EV fleet dimension grows in countries where the public infrastructure
is more widespread making it one of the most important purchasing factors
Source: EAFO, ACEA, Arthur D. Little Analysis
Number of public charging points in EU, EFTA and UK
# Ranking by # of charging points
UK
Netherlands
Belgium
France
Spain
Portugal
Austria
Germany
Poland
Czech Republic
Slovakia
Hungary
RomaniaSlovenia
Sweden
Finland
Italy
10
13
17
4
14
9
3
7
1
2
18
11
22 24
19
21
6
# Country
# of charging
points,
2019
# of Fast Charging
points (% of total)
% of total
1 Netherlands 50.592 1.072 (2,1%) 23.9%
2 Germany 39.291 5.088 (12,9%) 18.6%
3 France 29.701 2.040 (6,9%) 14.1%
4 UK 27.094 4.735 (17,5%) 12.8%
5 Norway 13.793 3.426 (24,8%) 6.5%
6 Italy 9.176 864 (9,4%) 4.3%
7 Belgium 6.429 359 (5,6%) 3.1%
8 Switzerland 6.200 786 (12,7%) 2.9%
9 Spain 5.503 1.003 (18,2%) 2.6%
10 Sweden 5.066 1.030 (20,3%) 2.4%
Other EU + EFTA 18.528 3.892 (21,0%) 8.8%
Total 211.343 24.295 (11,5%) 100%
Charging points % growth
rate (2019/2018)
%
+22%
+135%
+11%
+10%
+51%
+22%
+167%
+117%
+37%
+49%
+17%
+9%
+18%
+9%
+26%
+23%
12
+5%
23
25
27
+3%
+6%
+28%
30
+21%
15 +5%
+159%
Norway
5
+14%
Estonia
Latvia
Lithuania
Ireland
Greece
Switzerland
8 +22%
16+9%
Luxembourg
20
28 +26%
+11% Bulgaria
Croatia
◼ Sales of ECVs in the EU increased by 110% over the past three years. During
the same period however, the number of charging points grew by just 58%
demonstrating that investment in infrastructure is not keeping pace with
increased sales of electric vehicles
◼ At least 2.8 million ECV charging points will be needed by 2030. That means
there should be roughly a 14-fold increase within the next 11 years
◼ By the end of 2019 on average in EU only 1 charging point out of 7 was Fast
Charging (with a capacity of >22kW)
Data suggest a strong correlation
(r=0.85*) between the # of new
ECVs** registrations and the # of
charging points
Note: (*) The correlation has been calculated on the time series from 2015 to 2019 for EU, EFTA and UK with the exception of Iceland, Croatia, Cyprus, Luxembourg, and Malta
because of the lack of data; (**) ECVs = BEV + PHEV
76%

35
Affordability is another important purchasing factor that is highly
correlated with the market uptake of electrically-chargeable vehicles (ECVs)
Source: Acea, EAFO, Arthur D. Little Analysis
Note: (*) The correlation has been calculated on the time series from 2015 to 2019
ECVs car sales and GDP per capita in EU+EFTA+UK, 2019
Country ECVs registrations GDP per capita
5 biggest EU car markets
Germany 3.607.258 41.350 €
UK 2.311.140 37.760 €
France 2.214.279 35.960 €
Italy 1.916.320 29.610 €
Spain 1.258.260 26.430 €
France
Spain
Hungary
2.77%
1.39%
5.67%
4.09%
3.15%
15.01%
3.23%
3.02%
5.61%
0.89%
3.47%
0,48%
11.35%
0.49%
4.17%
0.93%
0.67%
1.86%
55.93%
6.89%
0.42%
0.36%
0.89%
0.35%
0.56%
0.36%
%
0% 0.5% 1% 3% 5% 10%
Data show a strong correlation between the
number of new ECVs and the GDP per capita both
among the top 5 biggest EU car markets (r= 0.93*)
and among the bottom 5 in terms of ECV market
share (r= 0.95).
◼ The number of ECVs new registrations is directly correlated
to countries’ GDP per capita, highlighting that one of the major
barrier to consumers is still represented by ECVs affordability
◼ Despite the ECVs growing trend, 11 EU countries still have an
ECV market share lower than 1%. GDP per capita in these
countries is below €30.000
Lowest ECV market Share in the EU
Estonia 26,589 21,160 €
Lithuania 46,461 17,340 €
Slovakia 101,568 17,270 €
Greece 114,110 17,100 €
Poland 555,598 13,780 €
ECVs MS, by country
ECVs MS

36
Propensity to purchase an ECV PC can be stimulated by tax benefits and
incentives, that still differ greatly in their size and type among EU countries
Source: Acea; *) Acquisition (VAT, sales tax, registration tax), e.g. in Italy based on vehicle type and horsepower + registration fees (€145.00 for new vehicles) + CO2-based bonus/malus scheme; Ownership (annual
circulation tax, road tax); Company car (incentives for company cars)
Tax benefits* for electric cars
Countries
Acquisition
Ownership
Company
Car
Austria
Belgium
Bulgaria
Croatia
Cyprus
Czech
Republic
Denmark
Estonia
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Hungary
Ireland
Purchase incentives for ECV
Countries
Acquisition
Ownership
Company
Car
Italy
Latvia
Lithuania
Luxembourg
Malta
Netherlands
Poland
Portugal
Romania
Slovakia
Slovenia
Spain
Sweden
UK
Rank TOP 10 EU countries with the
highest ECV purchase incentives
1 Romania Up to €11,500
2 Croatia Up to €9,200
3 Germany Up to €9,000
4 Poland Up to €8,350
5 Slovakia Up to €8,000
6 Slovenia Up to €7,500
7 Hungary Up to €7,350
8 France Up to €7,000
9 Greece Up to €6,500
10 Italy Up to €6,000
◼ Only 11 EU
countries offer all
possible tax
benefits to
encourage the
purchase of ECVs
◼ The majority of
the member states
offers one or two
of these types of
tax benefits, but
not the full
package
◼ Italy, for example,
provides only
ownership benefits
◼ Estonia and
Lithuania, instead,
do not offer any
tax benefits
No purchase
incentives
% ECV
MS
Belgium 3.2%
Bulgaria 0.6%
Cyprus n/a
Denmark 4.2%
Latvia 0.5%
Malta n/a
Among EU countries,
there are 6 of them that
do not provide any
purchase incentives for
electric cars yet.
◼ Data reported includes only incentives that are applied on national level. Other regional / local incentives could be foreseen in single countries
◼ Overall, countries have access to different kinds of incentives they can provide consumers with, however they only use a mix of them
◼ Italy offers ownership tax benefits and purchase incentives for ECV

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Arthur D. Little Automotive report October 2020

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