Quarterly Labour Force Survey - Q1:2017

Source: QLFS, Q2:2017
Quarterly Labour Force
Survey Q2:2017
Dr Pali Lehohla
Statistician-General
#StatsSA

South African Labour Market:
Current state vs NDP target

Unemployment The unemployment rate has been
around the 25% level since 2010
NDP Target
unemployment
in 2030
6%
27,7%
current
unemployment
rate
14%
NDP Target
unemployment
in 2020
Gap in reaching 2030 NDP
target:
21,7 percentage points
target:

Employment Labour Force
Participation Rate
16,1 million
in Q2:2017
24 million
2030
NDP target
59,9%
in Q2:2017
65%
2030
NDP target
target:
7,9 million
Absorption Rate
43,3%
in Q2:2017
61%
2030
NDP target
target:
target:

Labour market
Q2:2017

22,3 million
(down by 150 000 q-q)
Labour force
16,1 million
(down by 113 000 q-q)
Employed
6,2 million
(down by 37 000 q-q)
Unemployed
14,9 million
(up by 306 000 q-q)
Not economically active*
*Of which 2,4 million
were discouraged work
seekers
( up by 83 000 q-q)
37,2 million
(up by 157 000 q-q)
people of working age in
South Africa
(15 – 64 year olds)
ILO hierarchy – Employed first then
unemployed and the remainder is NEA
(including discouraged job-seekers).
3 mutually exclusive groups. Cannot be in two
groups at the same time
NDP target 2030
Employment:
24 million
The labour market Q2:2017

Employment
&
Labour market rates

Absorption rate
• Indicates the proportion of the working-age
population (15-64 years) which is currently
employed
It is calculated by dividing the number of people
employed by the total number of people of
working age (15-64 years).
Example:
• For example, of the 37,2 million people of
working age,
• 16,1 million were employed in SA, then
employment-to-population ratio is 43,3%
Labour force
participation rate
• Represents the share of working-age
population that is actively engaged in the
labour market by either being employed or
available to work, i.e. labour supply
• It is calculated by dividing the number of
people in the labour force (employed
+unemployed) by the total number of
people of working age (15-64 years).
Example
• Of the 37,2 million people of working age,
• 22,3 million people were in the labour force in
SA,
• The labour force participation rate is 59,9%
Absorption rate and LFPR explained

Total employment changes vs GDP growth rates
-6,0
-4,0
-2,0
0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Yr-yrGDP%growthrates
Yr-on-yremploymentchanges('000)
Yr-on-yr Employment changes Yr-on-yr GDP % changes (RHS)

Labour market dashboard
Number of
employed people
decreased from
16,2 million in
Q1:2017 to
16,1 million in
Q2:2017
Labour force
participation rate of
59,9% recorded in
Q2:2017 after the
highest LFPR of
60,5% in Q1:2017.
14,4m
16,1m
0,0
5,0
10,0
15,0
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Million
Number of employed
45,8%
43,3%
35,0
40,0
45,0
50,0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Absorption rate
59,6% 59,9%
50,0
55,0
60,0
65,0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Labour force participation rate
NDP target 2030:
24 million
NDP target 2030:
61%
NDP target 2030:
65%
Absorption rate
was 43,3% in
Q2:2017 and has
not recovered to
level of 45,8% in
2008

Labour market rates by sex
There are large disparities in the labour market by sex – the unemployment rate for women
is higher than that of males. Women are also less likely to participate in the labour market
29,8%
26,0%
27,7%
29,8%
26,0%
27,7%
Women
Men
Both
sexes
Unemployment Rate
Q1:2017 Q2:2017
37,6%
49,1%
43,3%
38,3%
49,3%
43,7%
Women
Men
Both sexes
Absorption Rate
Q1:2017 Q2:2017
53,6%
66,3%
59,9%
54,6%
66,6%
60,5%
Women
Men
Both
sexes
Participation Rate
Q1:2017 Q2:2017

Labour market rates by education level
17,0%
7,4%
27,9%
33,1%
27,7%
17,8%
7,3%
27,5%
33,1%
27,7%
Other tertiary
Graduates
Matric
Less than
matric
Total
Unemployment Rate
Q1:2017 Q2:2017
71,1%
82,4%
50,3%
33,2%
43,3%
70,4%
84,0%
50,2%
34,0%
43,7%
Other tertiary
Graduates
Matric
Less than matric
Total
Absorption Rate
Q1:2017 Q2:2017
85,7%
89,0%
69,8%
49,6%
59,9%
85,7%
90,6%
69,3%
50,8%
60,5%
Other tertiary
Graduates
Matric
Less than matric
Total
Participation Rate
Q1:2017 Q2:2017
The less educated one is the more likely it is for one to be unemployed

Labour market rates by age group
Young people aged 15-24 remain vulnerable in the labour market with
unemployment rate of almost 56% and absorption rate of 12%
11,9%
50,2%
63,5%
62,6%
40,6%
43,3%
12,7%
51,0%
63,5%
62,6%
41,3%
43,7%
15-24 yrs
25-34 yrs
35-44 yrs
45-54 yrs
55-64 yrs
15-64 yrs
Absorption Rate
Q1:2017 Q2:2017
26,9%
74,7%
81,7%
74,0%
44,7%
59,9%
27,9%
75,6%
81,3%
74,9%
46,2%
60,5%
15-24 yrs
25-34 yrs
35-44 yrs
45-54 yrs
55-64 yrs
15-64 yrs
Participation Rate
Q1:2017 Q2:2017
55,9%
32,8%
22,3%
15,4%
9,2%
27,7%
54,3%
32,5%
22,0%
16,5%
10,5%
27,7%
15-24 yrs
25-34 yrs
35-44 yrs
45-54 yrs
55-64 yrs
15-64 yrs
Unemployment Rate
Q1:2017 Q2:2017

Unemployment rate by education level and age group
The unemployment rate among the youth is higher in all educational
levels compared to that of adults.
26,8%
44,5%
56,0%
59,2%
55,9%
27,2%
45,1%
53,7%
57,9%
54,3%
Graduates
Other tertiary
Matric
Less than matric
Total
Youth (15-24 years)
Q1:2017 Q2:2017
10,2%
24,8%
29,7%
40,4%
32,8%
8,3%
26,3%
30,2%
39,2%
32,5%
Graduates
Other tertiary
Matric
Less than matric
Total
Youth (25-34 years)
Q1:2017 Q2:2017
4,8%
8,6%
16,5%
23,7%
18,3%
5,4%
8,8%
16,0%
24,3%
18,5%
Graduates
Other
tertiary
Matric
Less than
matric
Total
Adults (34 -64 years)
Q1:2017 Q2:2017

Profile of those Not in Employment,
Education and Training
(NEET)

Youth NEET rate is calculated as the total number of
youth who are NEET as a proportion of the total youth-
specific working-age population.
Not in Employment, Education and Training
NEET
Those young people (15-24 years) who are categorised
as NEET are considered to be disengaged from both
work and education.

NEET (15-24 years) by sex
Of the 10,3 million
young people aged
15-24,
3,3 million were
NEET.
Q2:2017 NEET rate
increased by 1,0 of a
percentage point.
The NEET rate for
females and males
increased by 0,7 and
1,2 percentage
points respectively.
30,0%
34,4%
32,2%
28,8%
33,7%
31,2%
Male
Female
Both sexes
Q2:2016 Q2:2017

Provincial NEET rate
South Africa
(15-24 years)
32,2%
(+1,0)
NC
40,0%
(+4,4)
WC
28,5%
(-0,7)
EC
35,6%
(+3,3)
NW
36,7%
(-1,1)
MP
33,9%
(+1,3)
KZN
35,3%
(+5,2)
FS
32,3%
(+0,3)
LP
24,8%
(-4,3)
GP
30,1%
(-0,5)
Year-on-year changes

Employment

Employment Q2:2017
Jobs in Private households
decreased by
8 000q/q
Informal sector jobs
increased by
80 000q/q
to 2,8 million
A net decrease of
113 000 q/q
Formal sector jobs
decreased by
144 000q/q
to 11,2 million
16,1mPeople aged 15 – 64 years were
employed in Q2:2017
NDP target 2030
Employment 24 million
Jobs in the Agricultural
sector decreased by
40 000q/q

Employment and GDP share per industry
Share of
GDP
(Q1:2017)
23,0
15,1
22,2
13,5
3,9
9,4
2,5
8,2
2,3
0,9%
2,7%
5,2%
5,9%
8,1%
8,7%
11,2%
14,9%
20,3%
22,1%
0,9%
2,8%
5,4%
5,9%
8,1%
9,3%
11,0%
14,7%
19,8%
22,0%
Utilities
Mining
Agriculture
Transport
Private hholds
Construction
Manufacturing
Finance
Trade
Services
Q1:2017 Q2:2017
Services, Trade and
Finance remain the main
contributors to
employment and GDP

Employment – changes by industry
Largest employment losses were recorded in Construction and Agriculture quarter-to-quarter.
Largest employment gains were recorded in Finance and Trade year-on-year
Mining was the only industry which shed jobs both qtr-to-qtr and year-on-year.
-110
-40
-13
-11
-9
-8
2
10
17
58
-150 -100 -50 0 50 100
CONSTRUCTION
AGRICULTURE
MINING
TRANSPORT
SERVICES
PRIVATE HHOLDS
UTILITIES
MANUFACTURING
FINANCE
TRADE
QUARTER ON QUARTER CHANGE
-13
7
10
15
16
37
88
92
129
175
-100 0 100 200
MINING
CONSTRUCTION
AGRICULTURE
PRIVATE HHOLDS
SERVICES
UTILITIES
MANUFACTURING
TRANSPORT
TRADE
FINANCE
YEAR ON YEAR CHANGE

Breakdown of quarter-to-quarter employment changes
for selected industries, Q2:2017- Losses
Construction
(110 000)
Mainly driven by losses in: :
• Building of complete constructions or parts
thereof; civil engineering
• Building completion
Mining
(13 000)
Mainly driven by by losses in:
• Mining of metal ores
• Other mining and quarrying
Transport
(11 000)
Mainly driven by losses in:
Supporting and auxiliary transport activities;
activities of travel agencies
Postal and related courier activities
Agriculture
(40 000)
Mainly driven by losses in:
• Growing of crops
• Forestry and related services

Breakdown of year-on-year employment changes for
selected industries, Q2:2017 - Gains
Finance
(175 000)
Mainly driven by an increase in:
• Other business activities
• Financial intermediation
+
Manufacturing
(88 000)
• Manufacture of basic metals
• Manufacture of wood and
product of wood and cock
+
Trade
(129 000)
• Hotels and restaurants
• Retail trade
+
Transport
(92 000)
• Other land transport
• Postal and related courier
activities
• Telecommunication
+

Construction employment vs Building statistics
Construction employment declined by 110 000 qtr-to-qtr in Q2:2017. The value
of building plans passed declined ahead of declining construction employment.
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1 400
1 600
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Construction employment (‘000)
Value of building plans passed and buildings completed
(R’ billion)
Value of building plans passed Value of buildings completed Construction employment (RHS)

Year-on-year mining employment vs mining production
Year-on-year Mining employment declined for three
successive quarters
-40,0
-30,0
-20,0
-10,0
0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
y/y % change in mining production
y/y change in Mining employment ('000)
y/y employment change % change in the value of total mining

Year-on-year manufacturing employment vs manufacturing
production
-25,0
-20,0
-15,0
-10,0
-5,0
0,0
5,0
10,0
15,0
20,0
25,0
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Y/Y % change in manufacturing production
Y/Y Employment changes (‘000)
y/y employment change % change in the value of total manufacturing
After five successive year-on-year declines Manufacturing employment increased by 88 000 in Q2:2017
• Manufacture of basic metals
• Manufacture of wood and product of wood and cock

Employment share by occupation, Q2:2008 and Q2:2017
7,3%
5,8%
10,6%
10,5%
12,6%
0,7%
14,4%
8,6%
22,6%
6,9%
9,1%
5,6%
9,1%
10,8%
15,2%
0,4%
12,2%
8,0%
23,1%
6,5%
Close to a third of all people employed in Q2:2008 and Q2:2017 were employed in
elementary and domestic work occupations
Q2:2008
Q2:2017

Number of employees by contract type
The highest employment growth was among those with contract of permanent duration quarter
on quarter while employment decreased among those with contract of limited duration both
quarter-to-quarter and year-on-year basis.
1 786
8 427
3 400
1 857
8 493
3 408
Limited
duration
Permanent
nature
Unspecified
duration
Q1:2017 Q2:2017
1 786
8 427
3 400
1 775
8 168
3 281
Limited duration
Permanent nature
Unspecified
duration
Q2:2016 Q2:2017
Quarter-to-quarter changes Year-on-year changes

Informal sector employment
declined by 14 000 to 2,7
million in Q1:2017
0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
8,0
10,0
12,0
14,0
16,0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Million
increased by 80 000 to
2,8 million in Q2:2017

Formal sector employment
0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
8,0
10,0
12,0
14,0
16,0 Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Million
Formal sector employment decreased by
144 000 to 11,2 million quarter-to-quarter
9,9m
11,2m

Sources of formal sector
employment:
Stats SA collects information about formal sector employment from:
Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS)
and the
Quarterly Employment Statistics (QES)

QES QLFS
collects information from
households
collects information from
businesses
VS
The two surveys yield different employment
estimates because of coverage, sample size,
reference periods, concepts and definitions.

Differences between QES and QLFS
Coverage
Payroll of VAT registered businesses in the formal
sector (excl. agriculture)
Employees only
Private h/holds & worker’s hostels (excl. institutions)
Total employment (+15 years) incl. informal sector,
private h/holds, agriculture & small bus.
QLFS QES
Sample
Size
20 000 businesses30 000 dwellings
Payroll last day of quarter1 week before interview
Reference
Period
Excluding Agriculture and personal householdsAll industries
SIC
Employees on payroll of VAT registered businesses
(with annual turnover greater than R300 000)
Employers and own-account workers reg. for VAT or
income tax.
Employees paying income tax & those not paying tax
but in firms with 5 or more workers Definition

For comparison QLFS can be adjusted as follows
Exclude employers and own-account workers from formal
sector
Exclude Agriculture
Exclude Private households
Employment differences between QES and QLFS

In some cases, even after these adjustments, it is still
difficult to align the
• This is partly because the composition and structure of both
businesses and households are changing constantly.
• QLFS cannot isolate individuals who work in VAT registered
businesses with annual turnover more than R300 000.
QES employment estimates
QLFS
&
Employment differences between QES and QLFS

Comparison of QES and QLFS employment
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
QLFS 9 711 10 08 10 14 10 17 10 12 10 21 10 31 10 10 10 18 10 30 10 51 10 35 10 22 10 38 10 48 10 62 10 52
QES 8 965 8 979 9 009 8 985 9 105 8 947 8 986 8 945 9 293 9 410 9 600 9 702 9 604 9 672 9 692 9 644
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
Thousand

Unemployment

Official unemployment rate Expanded unemployment rate
The official unemployment rate remained
unchanged (q/q)
The expanded unemployment rate increased
by 0,2 of a percentage point (q/q)
6,2 million
people were unemployed in Q2:2017
A decrease of 37 000 q/q
9,3 million
people were unemployed in Q2:2017
An increase of 13 000 q/q
Expanded unemployment consist of persons 15-64 years who did not
have a job and were available to take up a job or start a business in
the reference period (including discouraged work-seekers)
29,8% 26,0% 40,4% 33,3%
by 0,4 of a percentage
point q/q
21,5% 27,7%
10,0
15,0
20,0
25,0
30,0
35,0
40,0
Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
%
28,7%
36,6%
10,0
15,0
20,0
25,0
30,0
35,0
40,0
Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
%
remained unchanged (q/q)
remained unchanged (q/q)

Labour market dashboard
The number of
unemployed people in
South Africa
increased from 4,4
million in 2008 to 6,2
million in Q2:2017
The proportion of
those in long-term
unemployment
increased from 65,8%
in Q1:2017 to 67,2%
in Q2:2017
4,4m
6,2m
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
5,0
6,0
7,0
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Million
Number of unemployed
57,0%
67,2%
10,0
30,0
50,0
70,0
90,0
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Long term unemployment

Provincial unemployment rate
South Africa
27,7%
(0,0)
NC
30,5%
(-0,2)
WC
20,7%
(-0,8)
EC
34,4%
(+2,2)
NW
27,2%
(+0,7)
MP
32,3%
(+0,8)
KZN
24,0%
(-1,8)
FS
34,4%
(-1,1)
LP
20,8%
(-0,8)
GP
29,9%
(+0,7)
Quarter-to-quarter changes

Understanding
Non-economically active

Homemaker
(looking after
family)
18,0%
(up by 0,8 pp
quarter-to-quarter)
Discouraged work-seeker
Too young or too
old to work
9,2%
Sick or
disabled
10,5%
Student 41,1%
(down by 0,1 pp
quarter-to-quarter)
5 main
reasons for
NEA
14,9 million
people aged
15 – 64 years
were neither employed
nor unemployed.
An increase of 306 000 q/q
Non-economically active
15,8%
(up by 0,2 pp
quarter-to-quarter)
(down by 0,6 pp
quarter-to-
quarter)
(up by 0,1 pp
quarter-to-
quarter)

Key findings: Q2:2017
QLFS
Q2:2017
Number of employment and unemployment persons decreased
in Q2:2017.
This resulted in the unemployment rate remaining
unchanged in the first quarter of 2017 at 27,7%.
Proportion of the working age population that is employed
(absorption rate) declined by 0,4 of a percentage point to 43,3%.
The proportion of those in long-term unemployment increased from
65,8% in Q1:2017 to 67,2% in Q2:2017.
Young people aged 15-24 remain vulnerable in the labour market
with an unemployment rate of almost 56% and absorption rate of
11,9%
Largest employment losses were recorded in Construction (110 000)
and Agriculture (40 000).
However, employment gains were observed in Trade (58 000),
Finance (17 000), Manufacturing (10 000) and Utilities (2 000).
NEET rate of young people (15-24 years) increased by 1,0 percentage
point to 32,2% in Q2:2017.

Thank you

Quarterly Labour Force Survey - Q1:2017

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