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QLFS Q1:2019
Quarterly Labour
Force Survey
Q1:2019
Risenga Maluleke
Statistician-General
#StatsSA
QLFS Q1:2019
27,6%
27,1%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
SOUTH AFRICA’S UNEMPLOYMENT RATE INCREASED BY 0,5 OF A PERCENTAGE
POINT TO 27,6% IN Q1 OF 2019. The unemployment rate has fluctuated between the
20% and 30% band for the last 11 years.
Unemployment rate from
Q1:2008 to Q1:2019
QLFS Q1:2019
Unemployment rate from
Q1:2009 to Q1:2019
THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE HAS REMAINED HIGH OVER TIME.
Q1
2009
Q1
2019
Q1
2019
Q1
2019
Q1
2014
Q1
2018
25,2%
27,6%
0%
10%
20%
30%
5 Years
23,0%
27,6%
0%
10%
20%
30%
10 Years
26,7% 27,6%
0%
10%
20%
30%
1 Year
Unemployment rate increased by
4,6 percentage points between
Q1:2009 and Q1:2019
Unemployment increased from
25,2% in Q1:2014 to 27,6% in
Q1:2019 by 2,4 percentage
points
Unemployment rate increased
by 0,9 of a percentage
point compared to the same
period last year
QLFS Q1:2019
UnemployedEmployed
16,3 6,2
3,0
12,8
Other NEA
Not Economically Active
Discouraged
workseekers
15,8 million
ILO hierarchy – Employed first then unemployed
and the remainder is NEA (including discouraged
job-seekers). 3 mutually exclusive groups.
Cannot be in two groups at the same time,
Labour force
22,5 million
38,3 million
People of working age in South Africa (15 – 64 year olds)
M
M
M
Employed Unemployed
South Africa’s
official
unemployment rate
stands at
27,6%
M
Increased by 0,5 ppt
between
Q4:2018 and Q1:2019
THE WORKING AGE POPULATION (15-64 YEARS) IN Q1:2019 WAS 38,3 MILLION
QLFS Q1:2019
2008
+169 000 q/q
-237 000 q/q
+62 000 q/q
Other Not Economically
Active
Unemployed
Employed
LabourForce
+156 000 q/q
Discouraged work
seekers
NotEconomically
Active
THERE WAS AN INCREASE OF 149 000 PEOPLE OF WORKING AGE IN SOUTH
AFRICA (15 – 64 YEAR OLDS) BETWEEN Q4:2018 AND Q1:2019
Labour market indicators between
Q1:2008 and Q1:2019
2019
Changes between Q4:2018 and
Q1:2019
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
40 000
Jan-Mar2008
Jul-Sep2008
Jan-Mar2009
Jul-Sep2009
Jan-Mar2010
Jul-Sep2010
Jan-Mar2011
Jul-Sep2011
Jan-Mar2012
Jul-Sep2012
Jan-Mar2013
Jul-Sep2013
Jan-Mar2014
Jul-Sep2014
Jan-Mar2015
Jul-Sep2015
Jan-Mar2016
Jul-Sep2016
Jan-Mar2017
Jul-Sep2017
Jan-Mar2018
Jul-Sep2018
Jan-Mar2019
Employed
Unemployed
Not Economically Active
QLFS Q1:2019
EMPLOYMENT
&
LABOUR MARKET RATES
QLFS
Q1:2019
QLFS Q1:2019
THE NUMBER OF EMPLOYED PERSONS DECLINED BY 237 000 TO 16,3 MILLION
IN Q1:2019 Q/Q
Number of employed
From Q1:2009 to Q1:2019
14,6 M
16,3 M
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Millions
10 years
15,1 M
16,3 M
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
5 Years
16,4 M 16,3 M
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Millions
1 Year
The number of employed people
increased by 1,7 million from
14,6 million in Q1:2009 to 16,3
million in Q1:2019
The number of employed people
decreased by 86 thousand
from 16,4 million in Q1:2018 to 16,3
million in Q1:2019
The number of employed people
increased by 1,2 million from
15,1 million in Q1:2014 to 16,3
million in Q1:2019
Q1:2009 Q1:2019 Q1:2018 Q1:2019Q1:2014 Q1:2019
QLFS Q1:2019
THE LABOUR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATE DECREASED BY 0,8 OF A
PERCENTAGE POINT FROM 59,6% IN Q1:2008 TO 58,8% IN Q1:2019
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Labour force participation rate Employed / population ratio (Absorption)
13,8 % Points
difference
Absorption rate is the proportion of the working-age
population that is employed.
16,2% Points difference
Labour force participation rate is the proportion of
the working-age population that is either employed
or unemployed.
QLFS Q1:2019
Unemployment rate Absorption rate Participation rate
Change: Percentage points
Q4:2018 to Q1:2019
LABOUR MARKET RATES VARY SIGNIFICANTLY DEPENDING ON EDUCATION
LEVEL
Labour market rates by
education level, Q1:2019
17,2%
7,9%
28,7%
32,5%
27,6%
Other
tertiary
Graduates
Matric
Less than
matric
Total
69,9%
81,5%
47,3%
33,0%
42,6%
84,4%
88,5%
66,3%
48,8%
58,8%
+1,9
+0,4
+0,7
+1,3
+1,3
+0,5
-0,7
-2,6
-0,3
-1,3
-2,3
-0,6
-0,2
-3,0
-0,2
-1,5
QLFS Q1:2019
55,2%
34,2%
21,7%
15,6%
10,1%
27,6%
0,0 20,0 40,0 60,0 80,0100,0
15-24 yrs
25-34 yrs
35-44 yrs
45-54 yrs
55-64 yrs
15-64 yrs
24,8%
73,5%
79,2%
74,7%
43,7%
58,8%
0,0 20,0 40,0 60,0 80,0 100,0
15-24 yrs
25-34 yrs
35-44 yrs
45-54 yrs
55-64 yrs
15-64 yrs
11,1%
48,3%
62,0%
63,0%
39,3%
42,6%
0,0 20,0 40,0 60,0 80,0 100,0
15-24 yrs
25-34 yrs
35-44 yrs
45-54 yrs
55-64 yrs
15-64 yrs
+0,1
+0,6
-0,3
+1,2
+0,5
-1,1
-0,6
-1,0
-1,4
-0,3
-1,3
-0,2
-1,5
-0,7
-0,3
Unemployment rate Absorption rate Participation rate
Change: Percentage points
Q4:2018 to Q1:2019
Labour market rates by age
group, Q1:2019
THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE FOR THOSE AGED 25-34 (34,2%) IS MORE THAN
DOUBLE THAT OF THE 45-54 (15,6%) YEAR OLDS.
QLFS Q1:2019
15 – 24 years 35 – 64 years
Change: Percentage points
Q4:2018 to Q1:2019
Unemployment rate by education
level and age group, Q1:2019
THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE AMONG THE YOUTH IS HIGHER IRRESPECTIVE OF
EDUCATION LEVEL
47,5%
31,0%
55,0%
58,4%
55,2%
Other
tertiary
Graduates
Matric
Less than
matric
Total
25,2%
12,9%
32,4%
41,0%
34,2%
+0,8
+2,4
+4,0 9,4%
4,3%
17,0%
23,3%
18,0%
+0,1
+0,5
+1,1
+11,4
-1,4
+1,2
+0,9
+0,1
-0,1
+0,6
-0,1
+0,1
25 – 34 years
QLFS Q1:2019
PROFILE OF THOSE NOT IN
EMPLOYMENT, EDUCATION OR
TRAINING
(NEET)
QLFS
Q1:2019
QLFS Q1:2019
EducationWork
NEET
Those young people
(15-34 years) who are
categorised as NEET
are considered to be
disengaged from both
work and education.
Youth NEET rate is calculated as the total number of youth who are NEET as a proportion of the total
youth-specific working-age population
?
NOT IN EMPLOYMENT, EDUCATION OR TRAINING (NEET)
QLFS Q1:2019
29,6%
31,4%
35,3% 35,1%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Q1:2018 Q1:2019
FEMALE NEET
MALE NEET
NEET (15-24 years) by sex
APPROXIMATELY 3,4 MILLION (33,2%) OUT OF 10,3 MILLION YOUNG PEOPLE AGED
15-24 YEARS WERE NOT IN EMPLOYMENT, EDUCATION OR TRAINING (NEET). The
overall NEET rate increased by 0,8 of a percentage point in Q1:2019 compared to Q1:2018.
FEMALE NEET
Down by 0,2 of a
percentage point
MALE NEET
Up by 1,9
percentage points
15-24 YEARS
QLFS Q1:2019
27,6%
29,2%
30,4%
31,7%
32,5%
33,2%
36,6%
37,3%
37,7%
40,3%
WC
GP
FS
LP
MP
RSA
EC
KZN
NC
NW
(+0,2)
(+0,8)
(+2,2)
(+3,3)
(+0,8)
(+2,7)
(+1,8)
(-3,3)
(-0,2)
(+0,6)
( ) Y/Y Change
Provincial NEET rate (Year on Year
Change Q1:2018 – Q1:2019)
NW RECORDED THE HIGHEST RATE OF YOUNG PEOPLE AGED 15-24 YEARS NOT IN
EMPLOYMENT, EDUCATION OR TRAINING IN Q1:2019.
QLFS Q1:2019
35,0%
37,1%
44,3% 44,3%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Q1:2018 Q1:2019
FEMALE NEET
MALE NEET
NEET (15-34 years) by sex
APPROXIMATELY 8,3 MILLION (40,7%) OUT OF 20,3 MILLION YOUNG PEOPLE
AGED 15-34 YEARS, WERE NOT IN EMPLOYMENT, EDUCATION OR TRAINING
(NEET). The overall NEET rate increased by 1,0 percentage point y/y.
Female NEET
Remained unchanged
Male NEET
Up by 2,1
percentage points
15-34 YEARS
QLFS Q1:2019
Provincial NEET rate (Year –on – Year
Change Q1:2018 – Q1:2019)
THE EC PROVINCE HAD THE HIGHEST RATE OF YOUNG PEOPLE AGED 15-34
YEARS NOT IN EMPLOYMENT, EDUCATION OR TRAINING AT 47,1%. The rate
increased by 3,4 percentage points year-on-year.
30,8%
36,6%
39,2%
40,7%
40,8%
41,5%
43,7%
44,8%
45,6%
47,1%
WC
GP
FS
RSA
MP
LP
NC
KZN
NW
EC
( ) Y/Y Change
(+3,4)
(+3,0)
(+0,7)
(+1,2)
(+3,5)
(-1,5)
(+1,0)
(+2,5)
(-0,8)
(+0,6)
QLFS Q1:2019
EMPLOYMENT
QLFS
Q1:2019
QLFS Q1:2019
- 12 000
Q/Q
- 68 000
Q/Q
-126 000
Q/Q
- 31 000
Q/Q
THE NUMBER OF PERSONS EMPLOYED CONTRACTED BY 237 000 IN
Q1:2019 TO 16,3 MILLION.
Formal Sector
(Non agricultural)
(11,2 million jobs)
Informal Sector
(Non agricultural)
(2,9 million jobs)
Agriculture
(837 thousand jobs)
Private
households
(1,3 million jobs)
decreased bydecreased by decreased by decreased by
QLFS Q1:2019
Other
Utilities
Mining
Agriculture
Transport
Private households
Construction
Manufacturing
Finance
Trade
Services
Employment shares, Q1:2019
0,9%
2,6%
5,1%
6,3%
8,0%
8,2%
10,9%
15,4%
20,5%
21,9%
IND
Utilities
Mining
Agriculture
Transport
Private households
Construction
Manufacturing
Finance
Trade
Community and social services
Employment shares, Q1:2018
Share of
Nominal
GDP
(Q4:2018)
24%
16%
19%
14%
4%
10%
1%
9%
3%
CONSTRUCTION, TRADE AND AGRICULTURE HAVE HIGHER EMPLOYMENT
SHARES RELATIVE TO THEIR GDP CONTRIBUTION
Employment and GDP share
per industry
QLFS Q1:2019
-142
-94
-50
-31
-20
-12
14
16
25
59
Construction
Finance
Services
Private hholds
Mining
Agriculture
Manufacturing
Utilities
Trade
Transport
Quarter-on-quarter change (‘000)
-211
-92
-69
-9
7
20
26
64
69
114
Services
Construction
Manufacturing
Agriculture
Utilities
Mining
Private hholds
Transport
Trade
Finance
Year-on-year change (‘000)
THE LARGEST QUARTER-ON-QUARTER EMPLOYMENT DECLINES WERE
RECORDED IN CONSTRUCTION, FINANCE AND SERVICES.
Employment changes by
industry
QLFS Q1:2019
- 142 000
Q/Q Q/Q
- 50 000
Q/Q
Construction ServicesFinance
Mainly driven by losses in:
v Sewage and refuse disposal,
sanitation and similar activities
v Other service activities
v Social work activities
Mainly driven by losses in:
v Business Activities N.E.C.
v Insurance and pension
funding
- 94 000
EMPLOYMENT LOSSES WERE MAINLY DRIVEN BY CONSTRUCTION, FINANCE AND
SERVICES
Quarter-on-quarter
employment changes:
Losses
Mainly driven by losses in:
v Building of complete
construction
v Building installation
R
QLFS Q1:2019
59 000
Mainly driven by gains in:
v Other land transport
v Telecommunication.
v Supporting and
Auxiliary transport
activities
Transport UtilitiesTrade
Mainly driven by gains in:
v Production, collection
and distribution of
electricity.
v Collection, purification
and distribution of
water
16 000
Q/Q Q/Q
EMPLOYMENT GAINS WERE MAINLY DRIVEN BY THE TRANSPORT, TRADE, UTILITIES
AND MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES
Quarter-on-quarter
employment changes:
Gains
25 000
Q/Q
Manufacturing
14 000
Q/Q
Mainly driven by gains in:
v Wholesale and
commission trade
v Sales maintenance
and repairs
Mainly driven by gains
in:
Manufacturing of
v Non-metallic mineral
products
v Other food products
v Recycling N.E.C
QLFS Q1:2019
Employment share by
occupation, Q1:2019
CLOSE TO A THIRD (29,1%) OF ALL PEOPLE EMPLOYED IN Q1:2019 WERE
EMPLOYED IN ELEMENTARY AND DOMESTIC WORK OCCUPATIONS
0,3%
5,4%
6,2%
8,5%
8,9%
9,0%
10,3%
12,1%
16,4%
22,9%
Skilled agriculture
Professional
Domestic worker
Plant & Mach operator
Technician
Manager
Clerk
Craft and related trade
Sales and services
Elementary
0 5 10 15 20 25
QLFS Q1:2019
THE FORMAL SECTOR IN SOUTH AFRICA ACCOUNTS FOR OVER 65% OF TOTAL
EMPLOYMENT
9,9M
11,2M
2,4M
2,9M
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Millions
Formal sector employment Informal sector employment
Informal sector employment has increased from 2,4
million in Q1:2008 to 2,9 million in Q1:2019
Formal sector employment has
shown an upward trend, increasing
from 9,9 million in Q1:2008 to 11,2
million in Q1:2019
Informal Sector employment
Formal Sector employment
QLFS Q1:2019
UNEMPLOYMENT
QLFS
Q1:2019
QLFS Q1:2019
38,2%61,8%
Q1
2008
Q1
2019
THE NUMBER OF UNEMPLOYED PEOPLE INCREASED FROM 4,4 MILLION IN Q1:2008
TO 6,2 MILLION IN Q1:2019. The proportion of those in long-term unemployment increased
from 57,0% in Q1:2008 to 69,0% in Q1:2019, an increase of 12 percentage points.
* Unemployed for a year or longer
43,0%
4,4M
6,2M
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Long term unemployed*
57,0%
69,0%31,0%
Short term unemployed
Levels of unemployment
Q1: 2008 Q1: 2019
Thousand
Long-term 2 493 4 278
Short-term 1 877 1 923
Total 4 371 6 201
QLFS Q1:2019
29,3%
26,1%
SA: 27,6%
6,2 million
people were unemployed in Q1:2019
An increase of 62 000 q/q
9,9 million
people were unemployed in Q1:2019
An increase of 288 000 q/q
41,5%
34,9%
SA: 38,0%
Q1:2008 Q1:2019
Expanded Definition includes the following
- Official unemployment (searched and available)6,2 M
- Available to work but are/or
• Discouraged work-seekers 3,0 M
• Have other reasons for not searching 0,9 M
Expanded Unemployment Rate
38,0% (+1,0 % Point Change Q/Q)
Q1:2019
Q1:2019
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Official Unemployment Rate
27,6% (+0,5 % Point Change Q/Q)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Q1:2008 Q1:2019
QLFS Q1:2019
7,6%
12,4%
21,6%
30,4%
27,1%
6,6%
11,4%
22,2%
31,1%
27,6%
White
Indian/Asian
Coloured
Black
African
Both sexes
Unemployment Rate
by Population Group
Q1:2019 Q4:2018
8,2%
12,1%
20,6%
28,2%
25,1%
6,4%
9,4%
21,4%
29,7%
26,1%
Male Unemployment Rate
By Population Group
Q1:2019 Q4:2018
Black women are the most vulnerable
with unemployment rate of over 30%.
6,8%
13,0%
22,7%
33,1%
29,5%
6,8%
15,2%
23,2%
32,8%
29,3%
Female Unemployment Rate
by Population Group
Q1:2019 Q4:2018
OFFICIAL unemployment rate
by population group and sex
BLACK AFRICAN WOMEN ARE THE MOST VULNERABLE WITH AN UNEMPLOYMENT
RATE OF OVER 30%.
QLFS Q1:2019
10,6%
17,9%
28,1%
41,1%
37,0%
9,4%
15,9%
28,8%
42,5%
38,0%
White
Indian/Asian
Coloured
Black
African
Both sexes
Expanded unemployment
rate by population group
Q1:2019 Q4:2018
9,8%
14,6%
25,8%
37,3%
33,3%
8,0%
12,5%
27,2%
39,4%
34,9%
0,0% 10,0% 20,0% 30,0% 40,0% 50,0%
Male expanded
unemployment rate
Q1:2019 Q4:2018
11,6%
23,4%
30,7%
45,4%
41,2%
11,3%
21,8%
30,5%
45,9%
41,5%
Female expanded unemployment
rate
Q1:2019 Q4:2018
IRRESPECTIVE OF SEX, THE BLACK AFRICAN AND COLOURED POPULATION
GROUPS REMAIN VULNERABLE IN THE LABOUR MARKET
EXPANDED unemployment rate by
population group and sex
QLFS Q1:2019
Official Expanded
HIGHEST OFFICIAL & EXPANDED UNEMPLOYMENT RATES RECORDED IN EC; while LP,
NW, KZN and NC provinces all have more than 15% points difference between their expanded and official
unemployment rates
Provincial unemployment rate:
Official vs Expanded Q1:2019
43,1%
22,7%
42,4%
41,5%
44,4%
38,0%
33,6%
43,0%
40,1%
48,3%
0,0% 10,0% 20,0% 30,0% 40,0% 50,0% 60,0%
18,5%
19,5%
25,1%
26,0%
26,4%
27,6%
28,9%
34,2%
34,9%
37,4%
LP
WC
KZN
NC
NW
RSA
GP
MP
FS
EC
18,0% points difference
24,6% points difference
15,5% points difference
17,3% points difference
QLFS Q1:2019
UNDERSTANDING
NON-ECONOMICALLY ACTIVE
(NEA)
QLFS
Q1:2019
QLFS Q1:2019
Student
38,9%
Discouraged work seekers
19,0%
Home-maker
16,5%
Illness/disability; 10,4%
Too old/young to work; 9,8%
Q4:2018 to Q1:2019
% Change5 main reasons for NEA
NEA
M
M
M
M15,8 M
Quarter-on-quarter changes
Thousand
Student -151
Homemaker 62
Illness/disability 59
Too young/too old to work 76
Discouraged work seekers 156
Other 122
Up by 0,3 of
a % point
Up by 0,2 of
a % point
Q4:2018 to Q1:2019
Change in levels
Up by 0,6 of
a % point
Down by 1,8
% points
Up by 0,1 of
a % point
15,8 MILLION PEOPLE AGED 15 – 64 YEARS WERE NOT ECONOMICALLY ACTIVE.
This is an increase of 325 000 q/q
Reasons why – Not economically
active (NEA)
QLFS Q1:2019
UNEMPLOYMENT
RATE
EMPLOYMENT
GAINS
EMPLOYMENT
LOSSES
YOUTH
Unemployment rate
increased by 0,5 of a %
point to 27,6% .
Absorption rate and labour force
participation rate decreased by
0,7 of a percentage point and
0,6 of a percentage point
respectively.
Employment gains were
recorded in Transport
(59 000), Trade (25 000),
Utilities (16 000) and
Manufacturing (14 000).
Largest employment
losses were observed in
Construction
(142 000), Finance
(94 000) and Community
and social services
(50 000).
Of the 10,3 million persons
aged 15-24 years, 33,2%
were not in employment,
education or training.
Recap
Q1:2019
QLFS Q1:2019
Ndzi hela kwala!
QLFS
Q1:2019

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Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS), 1st Quarter 2019

  • 1. QLFS Q1:2019 Quarterly Labour Force Survey Q1:2019 Risenga Maluleke Statistician-General #StatsSA
  • 2. QLFS Q1:2019 27,6% 27,1% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 SOUTH AFRICA’S UNEMPLOYMENT RATE INCREASED BY 0,5 OF A PERCENTAGE POINT TO 27,6% IN Q1 OF 2019. The unemployment rate has fluctuated between the 20% and 30% band for the last 11 years. Unemployment rate from Q1:2008 to Q1:2019
  • 3. QLFS Q1:2019 Unemployment rate from Q1:2009 to Q1:2019 THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE HAS REMAINED HIGH OVER TIME. Q1 2009 Q1 2019 Q1 2019 Q1 2019 Q1 2014 Q1 2018 25,2% 27,6% 0% 10% 20% 30% 5 Years 23,0% 27,6% 0% 10% 20% 30% 10 Years 26,7% 27,6% 0% 10% 20% 30% 1 Year Unemployment rate increased by 4,6 percentage points between Q1:2009 and Q1:2019 Unemployment increased from 25,2% in Q1:2014 to 27,6% in Q1:2019 by 2,4 percentage points Unemployment rate increased by 0,9 of a percentage point compared to the same period last year
  • 4. QLFS Q1:2019 UnemployedEmployed 16,3 6,2 3,0 12,8 Other NEA Not Economically Active Discouraged workseekers 15,8 million ILO hierarchy – Employed first then unemployed and the remainder is NEA (including discouraged job-seekers). 3 mutually exclusive groups. Cannot be in two groups at the same time, Labour force 22,5 million 38,3 million People of working age in South Africa (15 – 64 year olds) M M M Employed Unemployed South Africa’s official unemployment rate stands at 27,6% M Increased by 0,5 ppt between Q4:2018 and Q1:2019 THE WORKING AGE POPULATION (15-64 YEARS) IN Q1:2019 WAS 38,3 MILLION
  • 5. QLFS Q1:2019 2008 +169 000 q/q -237 000 q/q +62 000 q/q Other Not Economically Active Unemployed Employed LabourForce +156 000 q/q Discouraged work seekers NotEconomically Active THERE WAS AN INCREASE OF 149 000 PEOPLE OF WORKING AGE IN SOUTH AFRICA (15 – 64 YEAR OLDS) BETWEEN Q4:2018 AND Q1:2019 Labour market indicators between Q1:2008 and Q1:2019 2019 Changes between Q4:2018 and Q1:2019 5 000 10 000 15 000 20 000 25 000 30 000 35 000 40 000 Jan-Mar2008 Jul-Sep2008 Jan-Mar2009 Jul-Sep2009 Jan-Mar2010 Jul-Sep2010 Jan-Mar2011 Jul-Sep2011 Jan-Mar2012 Jul-Sep2012 Jan-Mar2013 Jul-Sep2013 Jan-Mar2014 Jul-Sep2014 Jan-Mar2015 Jul-Sep2015 Jan-Mar2016 Jul-Sep2016 Jan-Mar2017 Jul-Sep2017 Jan-Mar2018 Jul-Sep2018 Jan-Mar2019 Employed Unemployed Not Economically Active
  • 7. QLFS Q1:2019 THE NUMBER OF EMPLOYED PERSONS DECLINED BY 237 000 TO 16,3 MILLION IN Q1:2019 Q/Q Number of employed From Q1:2009 to Q1:2019 14,6 M 16,3 M 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 Millions 10 years 15,1 M 16,3 M 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 5 Years 16,4 M 16,3 M 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 Millions 1 Year The number of employed people increased by 1,7 million from 14,6 million in Q1:2009 to 16,3 million in Q1:2019 The number of employed people decreased by 86 thousand from 16,4 million in Q1:2018 to 16,3 million in Q1:2019 The number of employed people increased by 1,2 million from 15,1 million in Q1:2014 to 16,3 million in Q1:2019 Q1:2009 Q1:2019 Q1:2018 Q1:2019Q1:2014 Q1:2019
  • 8. QLFS Q1:2019 THE LABOUR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATE DECREASED BY 0,8 OF A PERCENTAGE POINT FROM 59,6% IN Q1:2008 TO 58,8% IN Q1:2019 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Labour force participation rate Employed / population ratio (Absorption) 13,8 % Points difference Absorption rate is the proportion of the working-age population that is employed. 16,2% Points difference Labour force participation rate is the proportion of the working-age population that is either employed or unemployed.
  • 9. QLFS Q1:2019 Unemployment rate Absorption rate Participation rate Change: Percentage points Q4:2018 to Q1:2019 LABOUR MARKET RATES VARY SIGNIFICANTLY DEPENDING ON EDUCATION LEVEL Labour market rates by education level, Q1:2019 17,2% 7,9% 28,7% 32,5% 27,6% Other tertiary Graduates Matric Less than matric Total 69,9% 81,5% 47,3% 33,0% 42,6% 84,4% 88,5% 66,3% 48,8% 58,8% +1,9 +0,4 +0,7 +1,3 +1,3 +0,5 -0,7 -2,6 -0,3 -1,3 -2,3 -0,6 -0,2 -3,0 -0,2 -1,5
  • 10. QLFS Q1:2019 55,2% 34,2% 21,7% 15,6% 10,1% 27,6% 0,0 20,0 40,0 60,0 80,0100,0 15-24 yrs 25-34 yrs 35-44 yrs 45-54 yrs 55-64 yrs 15-64 yrs 24,8% 73,5% 79,2% 74,7% 43,7% 58,8% 0,0 20,0 40,0 60,0 80,0 100,0 15-24 yrs 25-34 yrs 35-44 yrs 45-54 yrs 55-64 yrs 15-64 yrs 11,1% 48,3% 62,0% 63,0% 39,3% 42,6% 0,0 20,0 40,0 60,0 80,0 100,0 15-24 yrs 25-34 yrs 35-44 yrs 45-54 yrs 55-64 yrs 15-64 yrs +0,1 +0,6 -0,3 +1,2 +0,5 -1,1 -0,6 -1,0 -1,4 -0,3 -1,3 -0,2 -1,5 -0,7 -0,3 Unemployment rate Absorption rate Participation rate Change: Percentage points Q4:2018 to Q1:2019 Labour market rates by age group, Q1:2019 THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE FOR THOSE AGED 25-34 (34,2%) IS MORE THAN DOUBLE THAT OF THE 45-54 (15,6%) YEAR OLDS.
  • 11. QLFS Q1:2019 15 – 24 years 35 – 64 years Change: Percentage points Q4:2018 to Q1:2019 Unemployment rate by education level and age group, Q1:2019 THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE AMONG THE YOUTH IS HIGHER IRRESPECTIVE OF EDUCATION LEVEL 47,5% 31,0% 55,0% 58,4% 55,2% Other tertiary Graduates Matric Less than matric Total 25,2% 12,9% 32,4% 41,0% 34,2% +0,8 +2,4 +4,0 9,4% 4,3% 17,0% 23,3% 18,0% +0,1 +0,5 +1,1 +11,4 -1,4 +1,2 +0,9 +0,1 -0,1 +0,6 -0,1 +0,1 25 – 34 years
  • 12. QLFS Q1:2019 PROFILE OF THOSE NOT IN EMPLOYMENT, EDUCATION OR TRAINING (NEET) QLFS Q1:2019
  • 13. QLFS Q1:2019 EducationWork NEET Those young people (15-34 years) who are categorised as NEET are considered to be disengaged from both work and education. Youth NEET rate is calculated as the total number of youth who are NEET as a proportion of the total youth-specific working-age population ? NOT IN EMPLOYMENT, EDUCATION OR TRAINING (NEET)
  • 14. QLFS Q1:2019 29,6% 31,4% 35,3% 35,1% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Q1:2018 Q1:2019 FEMALE NEET MALE NEET NEET (15-24 years) by sex APPROXIMATELY 3,4 MILLION (33,2%) OUT OF 10,3 MILLION YOUNG PEOPLE AGED 15-24 YEARS WERE NOT IN EMPLOYMENT, EDUCATION OR TRAINING (NEET). The overall NEET rate increased by 0,8 of a percentage point in Q1:2019 compared to Q1:2018. FEMALE NEET Down by 0,2 of a percentage point MALE NEET Up by 1,9 percentage points 15-24 YEARS
  • 15. QLFS Q1:2019 27,6% 29,2% 30,4% 31,7% 32,5% 33,2% 36,6% 37,3% 37,7% 40,3% WC GP FS LP MP RSA EC KZN NC NW (+0,2) (+0,8) (+2,2) (+3,3) (+0,8) (+2,7) (+1,8) (-3,3) (-0,2) (+0,6) ( ) Y/Y Change Provincial NEET rate (Year on Year Change Q1:2018 – Q1:2019) NW RECORDED THE HIGHEST RATE OF YOUNG PEOPLE AGED 15-24 YEARS NOT IN EMPLOYMENT, EDUCATION OR TRAINING IN Q1:2019.
  • 16. QLFS Q1:2019 35,0% 37,1% 44,3% 44,3% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% Q1:2018 Q1:2019 FEMALE NEET MALE NEET NEET (15-34 years) by sex APPROXIMATELY 8,3 MILLION (40,7%) OUT OF 20,3 MILLION YOUNG PEOPLE AGED 15-34 YEARS, WERE NOT IN EMPLOYMENT, EDUCATION OR TRAINING (NEET). The overall NEET rate increased by 1,0 percentage point y/y. Female NEET Remained unchanged Male NEET Up by 2,1 percentage points 15-34 YEARS
  • 17. QLFS Q1:2019 Provincial NEET rate (Year –on – Year Change Q1:2018 – Q1:2019) THE EC PROVINCE HAD THE HIGHEST RATE OF YOUNG PEOPLE AGED 15-34 YEARS NOT IN EMPLOYMENT, EDUCATION OR TRAINING AT 47,1%. The rate increased by 3,4 percentage points year-on-year. 30,8% 36,6% 39,2% 40,7% 40,8% 41,5% 43,7% 44,8% 45,6% 47,1% WC GP FS RSA MP LP NC KZN NW EC ( ) Y/Y Change (+3,4) (+3,0) (+0,7) (+1,2) (+3,5) (-1,5) (+1,0) (+2,5) (-0,8) (+0,6)
  • 19. QLFS Q1:2019 - 12 000 Q/Q - 68 000 Q/Q -126 000 Q/Q - 31 000 Q/Q THE NUMBER OF PERSONS EMPLOYED CONTRACTED BY 237 000 IN Q1:2019 TO 16,3 MILLION. Formal Sector (Non agricultural) (11,2 million jobs) Informal Sector (Non agricultural) (2,9 million jobs) Agriculture (837 thousand jobs) Private households (1,3 million jobs) decreased bydecreased by decreased by decreased by
  • 20. QLFS Q1:2019 Other Utilities Mining Agriculture Transport Private households Construction Manufacturing Finance Trade Services Employment shares, Q1:2019 0,9% 2,6% 5,1% 6,3% 8,0% 8,2% 10,9% 15,4% 20,5% 21,9% IND Utilities Mining Agriculture Transport Private households Construction Manufacturing Finance Trade Community and social services Employment shares, Q1:2018 Share of Nominal GDP (Q4:2018) 24% 16% 19% 14% 4% 10% 1% 9% 3% CONSTRUCTION, TRADE AND AGRICULTURE HAVE HIGHER EMPLOYMENT SHARES RELATIVE TO THEIR GDP CONTRIBUTION Employment and GDP share per industry
  • 21. QLFS Q1:2019 -142 -94 -50 -31 -20 -12 14 16 25 59 Construction Finance Services Private hholds Mining Agriculture Manufacturing Utilities Trade Transport Quarter-on-quarter change (‘000) -211 -92 -69 -9 7 20 26 64 69 114 Services Construction Manufacturing Agriculture Utilities Mining Private hholds Transport Trade Finance Year-on-year change (‘000) THE LARGEST QUARTER-ON-QUARTER EMPLOYMENT DECLINES WERE RECORDED IN CONSTRUCTION, FINANCE AND SERVICES. Employment changes by industry
  • 22. QLFS Q1:2019 - 142 000 Q/Q Q/Q - 50 000 Q/Q Construction ServicesFinance Mainly driven by losses in: v Sewage and refuse disposal, sanitation and similar activities v Other service activities v Social work activities Mainly driven by losses in: v Business Activities N.E.C. v Insurance and pension funding - 94 000 EMPLOYMENT LOSSES WERE MAINLY DRIVEN BY CONSTRUCTION, FINANCE AND SERVICES Quarter-on-quarter employment changes: Losses Mainly driven by losses in: v Building of complete construction v Building installation R
  • 23. QLFS Q1:2019 59 000 Mainly driven by gains in: v Other land transport v Telecommunication. v Supporting and Auxiliary transport activities Transport UtilitiesTrade Mainly driven by gains in: v Production, collection and distribution of electricity. v Collection, purification and distribution of water 16 000 Q/Q Q/Q EMPLOYMENT GAINS WERE MAINLY DRIVEN BY THE TRANSPORT, TRADE, UTILITIES AND MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES Quarter-on-quarter employment changes: Gains 25 000 Q/Q Manufacturing 14 000 Q/Q Mainly driven by gains in: v Wholesale and commission trade v Sales maintenance and repairs Mainly driven by gains in: Manufacturing of v Non-metallic mineral products v Other food products v Recycling N.E.C
  • 24. QLFS Q1:2019 Employment share by occupation, Q1:2019 CLOSE TO A THIRD (29,1%) OF ALL PEOPLE EMPLOYED IN Q1:2019 WERE EMPLOYED IN ELEMENTARY AND DOMESTIC WORK OCCUPATIONS 0,3% 5,4% 6,2% 8,5% 8,9% 9,0% 10,3% 12,1% 16,4% 22,9% Skilled agriculture Professional Domestic worker Plant & Mach operator Technician Manager Clerk Craft and related trade Sales and services Elementary 0 5 10 15 20 25
  • 25. QLFS Q1:2019 THE FORMAL SECTOR IN SOUTH AFRICA ACCOUNTS FOR OVER 65% OF TOTAL EMPLOYMENT 9,9M 11,2M 2,4M 2,9M 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Millions Formal sector employment Informal sector employment Informal sector employment has increased from 2,4 million in Q1:2008 to 2,9 million in Q1:2019 Formal sector employment has shown an upward trend, increasing from 9,9 million in Q1:2008 to 11,2 million in Q1:2019 Informal Sector employment Formal Sector employment
  • 27. QLFS Q1:2019 38,2%61,8% Q1 2008 Q1 2019 THE NUMBER OF UNEMPLOYED PEOPLE INCREASED FROM 4,4 MILLION IN Q1:2008 TO 6,2 MILLION IN Q1:2019. The proportion of those in long-term unemployment increased from 57,0% in Q1:2008 to 69,0% in Q1:2019, an increase of 12 percentage points. * Unemployed for a year or longer 43,0% 4,4M 6,2M 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Long term unemployed* 57,0% 69,0%31,0% Short term unemployed Levels of unemployment Q1: 2008 Q1: 2019 Thousand Long-term 2 493 4 278 Short-term 1 877 1 923 Total 4 371 6 201
  • 28. QLFS Q1:2019 29,3% 26,1% SA: 27,6% 6,2 million people were unemployed in Q1:2019 An increase of 62 000 q/q 9,9 million people were unemployed in Q1:2019 An increase of 288 000 q/q 41,5% 34,9% SA: 38,0% Q1:2008 Q1:2019 Expanded Definition includes the following - Official unemployment (searched and available)6,2 M - Available to work but are/or • Discouraged work-seekers 3,0 M • Have other reasons for not searching 0,9 M Expanded Unemployment Rate 38,0% (+1,0 % Point Change Q/Q) Q1:2019 Q1:2019 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% Official Unemployment Rate 27,6% (+0,5 % Point Change Q/Q) 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% Q1:2008 Q1:2019
  • 29. QLFS Q1:2019 7,6% 12,4% 21,6% 30,4% 27,1% 6,6% 11,4% 22,2% 31,1% 27,6% White Indian/Asian Coloured Black African Both sexes Unemployment Rate by Population Group Q1:2019 Q4:2018 8,2% 12,1% 20,6% 28,2% 25,1% 6,4% 9,4% 21,4% 29,7% 26,1% Male Unemployment Rate By Population Group Q1:2019 Q4:2018 Black women are the most vulnerable with unemployment rate of over 30%. 6,8% 13,0% 22,7% 33,1% 29,5% 6,8% 15,2% 23,2% 32,8% 29,3% Female Unemployment Rate by Population Group Q1:2019 Q4:2018 OFFICIAL unemployment rate by population group and sex BLACK AFRICAN WOMEN ARE THE MOST VULNERABLE WITH AN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE OF OVER 30%.
  • 30. QLFS Q1:2019 10,6% 17,9% 28,1% 41,1% 37,0% 9,4% 15,9% 28,8% 42,5% 38,0% White Indian/Asian Coloured Black African Both sexes Expanded unemployment rate by population group Q1:2019 Q4:2018 9,8% 14,6% 25,8% 37,3% 33,3% 8,0% 12,5% 27,2% 39,4% 34,9% 0,0% 10,0% 20,0% 30,0% 40,0% 50,0% Male expanded unemployment rate Q1:2019 Q4:2018 11,6% 23,4% 30,7% 45,4% 41,2% 11,3% 21,8% 30,5% 45,9% 41,5% Female expanded unemployment rate Q1:2019 Q4:2018 IRRESPECTIVE OF SEX, THE BLACK AFRICAN AND COLOURED POPULATION GROUPS REMAIN VULNERABLE IN THE LABOUR MARKET EXPANDED unemployment rate by population group and sex
  • 31. QLFS Q1:2019 Official Expanded HIGHEST OFFICIAL & EXPANDED UNEMPLOYMENT RATES RECORDED IN EC; while LP, NW, KZN and NC provinces all have more than 15% points difference between their expanded and official unemployment rates Provincial unemployment rate: Official vs Expanded Q1:2019 43,1% 22,7% 42,4% 41,5% 44,4% 38,0% 33,6% 43,0% 40,1% 48,3% 0,0% 10,0% 20,0% 30,0% 40,0% 50,0% 60,0% 18,5% 19,5% 25,1% 26,0% 26,4% 27,6% 28,9% 34,2% 34,9% 37,4% LP WC KZN NC NW RSA GP MP FS EC 18,0% points difference 24,6% points difference 15,5% points difference 17,3% points difference
  • 33. QLFS Q1:2019 Student 38,9% Discouraged work seekers 19,0% Home-maker 16,5% Illness/disability; 10,4% Too old/young to work; 9,8% Q4:2018 to Q1:2019 % Change5 main reasons for NEA NEA M M M M15,8 M Quarter-on-quarter changes Thousand Student -151 Homemaker 62 Illness/disability 59 Too young/too old to work 76 Discouraged work seekers 156 Other 122 Up by 0,3 of a % point Up by 0,2 of a % point Q4:2018 to Q1:2019 Change in levels Up by 0,6 of a % point Down by 1,8 % points Up by 0,1 of a % point 15,8 MILLION PEOPLE AGED 15 – 64 YEARS WERE NOT ECONOMICALLY ACTIVE. This is an increase of 325 000 q/q Reasons why – Not economically active (NEA)
  • 34. QLFS Q1:2019 UNEMPLOYMENT RATE EMPLOYMENT GAINS EMPLOYMENT LOSSES YOUTH Unemployment rate increased by 0,5 of a % point to 27,6% . Absorption rate and labour force participation rate decreased by 0,7 of a percentage point and 0,6 of a percentage point respectively. Employment gains were recorded in Transport (59 000), Trade (25 000), Utilities (16 000) and Manufacturing (14 000). Largest employment losses were observed in Construction (142 000), Finance (94 000) and Community and social services (50 000). Of the 10,3 million persons aged 15-24 years, 33,2% were not in employment, education or training. Recap Q1:2019
  • 35. QLFS Q1:2019 Ndzi hela kwala! QLFS Q1:2019