Quarterly Labour Force Survey - Q1:2017

Source: QLFS, Q1:2017
Quarterly Labour Force
Survey Q1:2017
Dr Pali Lehohla
Statistician-General
#StatsSA

South African Labour Market:
Current state vs NDP target

Unemployment The unemployment rate has been
around the 25% level since 2010
NDP Target
unemployment
in 2030
6%
27,7%
current
unemployment
rate
14%
NDP Target
unemployment
in 2020
Gap in reaching 2030 NDP
target:
21,7 percentage points
target:

Employment Labour Force
Participation Rate
16,2 million
in Q1:2017
24 million
2030
NDP target
60,5%
in Q1:2017
65%
2030
NDP target
target:
7,8 million
Absorption Rate
43,7%
in Q1:2017
61%
2030
NDP target
target:
target:

Labour market
Q1:2017

22,4 million
Labour force
16,2 million
Employed
6,2 million
Unemployed
14,6 million
Not economically
active*
*Of which 2,3 million
were discouraged work
seekers
37,1 million
people of working age in
South Africa
(15 – 64 year olds)
ILO hierarchy – Employed first then
unemployed and the remainder is NEA
(including discouraged job-seekers).
3 mutually exclusive groups. Cannot be in two
groups at the same time
NDP target 2030
Employment:
24 million
The labour market Q1:2017

Employment
&
Labour market rates

Absorption rate
• Indicates the proportion of the working-age
population (15-64 years) which is currently
employed
It is calculated by dividing the number of people
employed by the total number of people of
working age (15-64 years).
Example:
• For example, of the 37,1 million people of
working age,
• 16,2 million were employed in SA, then
employment-to-population ratio is 43,7%
Labour force
participation rate
• Represents the share of working-age
population that is actively engaged in the
labour market by either being employed or
available to work, i.e. labour supply
• It is calculated by dividing the number of
people in the labour force (employed
+unemployed) by the total number of
people of working age (15-64 years).
Example
• Of the 37,1 million people of working age,
• 22,4 million people were in the labour force in
SA,
• The labour force participation rate is 60,5%
Absorption rate and LFPR explained

Total employment changes vs GDP % changes
-4,0
-3,0
-2,0
-1,0
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Yr-on-yr GDP % changes
Yr-on-yr employment changes ('000)
Yr-on-yr Employment changes Yr-on-yr GDP % changes (RHS)

Labour market dashboard
Number of
employed people
increased from
14,4 million in
2008 to
16,2 million in
Q1:2017
Absorption rate
has not
recovered to pre-
recession level
of 45,8% in 2008
The labour force
participation rate of
60,5% recorded in
Q:2017 is the
highest since 2008.
14,4m
16,2m
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Million
Number of employed
59,6% 60,5%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Labour force participation rate
45,8%
43,7%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Absorption rate

Labour market rates by sex
27,7%
29,8%
26,0%
26,5%
28,9%
24,5%
0,0 20,0 40,0 60,0
Both sexes
Women
Men
Unemployment Rate
Q4:2016 Q1:2017
43,7%
38,3%
49,3%
43,5%
37,6%
49,6%
0,0 20,0 40,0 60,0
Both sexes
Women
Men
Absorption rate
Q4:2016 Q1:2017
60,5%
54,6%
66,6%
59,2%
52,9%
65,7%
0,0 20,0 40,0 60,0
Both
sexes
Women
Men
Participation rate
Q4:2016 Q1:2017
There are large disparities in the labour market by sex – the unemployment rate for women
is higher than that of males. Women are also less likely to participate in the labour market

27,7%
54,3%
32,5%
22,0%
16,5%
10,5%
26,5%
50,9%
31,9%
21,4%
15,1%
8,1%
0 20 40 60 80
15-64 yrs
15-24 yrs
25-34 yrs
35-44 yrs
45-54 yrs
55-64 yrs
Unemployment rate
Q4:2016 Q1:2017
43,7%
12,7%
51,0%
63,5%
62,6%
41,3%
43,5%
12,9%
51,1%
63,5%
61,6%
40,5%
0 20 40 60 80
15-64 yrs
15-24 yrs
25-34 yrs
35-44 yrs
45-54 yrs
55-64 yrs
Absorption rate
Q4:2016 Q1:2017
60,5%
27,9%
75,6%
81,3%
74,9%
46,2%
59,2%
26,3%
74,9%
80,8%
72,6%
44,0%
0 20 40 60 80
15-64 yrs
15-24 yrs
25-34 yrs
35-44 yrs
45-54 yrs
55-64 yrs
Participation rate
Q4:2016 Q1:2017
Labour market rates by age group
Young people aged 15-24 remain vulnerable in the labour market with
an unemployment rate of over 54% and absorption rate of 13%

Labour market rates by education level
27,7%
17,8%
7,3%
27,5%
33,1%
26,5%
15,8%
7,0%
27,1%
31,2%
0 50 100
Total
Other tertiary
Graduates
Matric
Less than matric
Unemployment rate
Q4:2016 Q1:2017
43,7%
70,4%
84,0%
50,2%
34,0%
43,5%
71,7%
82,5%
52,1%
33,4%
0 50 100
Total
Other tertiary
Graduates
Matric
Less than matric
Absorption rate
Q4:2016 Q1:2017
60,5%
85,7%
90,6%
69,3%
50,8%
59,2%
85,2%
88,7%
71,5%
48,6%
0 50 100
Total
Other tertiary
Graduates
Matric
Less than matric
Labour force participation rate
Q4:2016 Q1:2017
The less educated are more likely to be unemployed than those with higher
level of education

Unemployment rate by education level and age groups
• The unemployment among the youth is disproportionately high even among those with other
tertiary education
• The youth unemployment rate among those with other tertiary education (30,2%) is 3 times
higher than that of their adult counterparts
18,5 %
8,8 %
5,4 %
16,0 %
24,3 %
17,5 %
8,0 %
4,7 %
16,2 %
22,5 %
0,0 20,0 40,0 60,0
Total
Other tertiary
Graduates
Matric
Less than matric
35 - 64 years
Q4:2016 Q1:2017
38,6%
30,2%
10,9%
37,7%
44,6%
37,1%
27,0%
11,7%
36,5%
42,4%
0,0 20,0 40,0 60,0
Total
Other tertiary
Graduates
Matric
Less than matric
15-34 years
Q4:2016 Q1:2017

Employment

Employment Q1:2017
Jobs in Private households
increased by
21 000q/q
Informal sector jobs
decreased by
14 000q/q
to 2,7 million
An increase of
144 000 q/q
Formal sector jobs
increased by
181 000q/q
to 11,3 million
16,2mPeople aged 15 – 64 years were
employed in Q1:2017
NDP target 2030
Employment 24 million
Jobs in the Agricultural
sector decreased by
44 000q/q

Utilities
Mining
Agriculture
Transport
Private households
Construction
Manufacturing
Finance
Trade
Services
Employment and GDP share per industry
0,8%
2,6%
5,7%
6,0%
8,1%
9,2%
10,7%
14,5%
20,1%
22,2%
0,9%
2,8%
5,4%
5,9%
8,1%
9,3%
11,0%
14,7%
19,8%
22,0%
Q1:2017 Q4:2016
Services, Trade and
Finance remain the main
contributors to
employment and GDP
22,3%
16,9%
21,6%
13,7%
3,9%
-
9,5%
1,6%
8,1%
2,3%
Share of GDP
(Q4:2016)

Employment – changes by industry
Largest employment gains were recorded in Manufacturing and Finance both quarter-on-
quarter and year-on-year.
Employment losses recorded in Agriculture quarter-on-quarter and Services year-on-year
-44
-15
-2
3
14
21
23
26
49
62
-100 -50 0 50 100
Agriculture
Trade
Community and social…
Transport
Utilities
Private households
Construction
Mining
Finance
Manufacturing
Quarter on Quarter change
-101
-24
6
35
49
62
63
143
145
152
-150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200
Community and social…
Mining
Agriculture
Utilities
Trade
Private households
Transport
Construction
Manufacturing
Finance
Year on year change

Breakdown of quarter-to-quarter employment changes
for selected industries, Q1:2017
Manufacturing
(62 000)
Mainly driven by a gain in:
• Manufacture of food products, beverages and
tobacco products
• Manufacture of coke, refined petroleum
products and nuclear fuel
Construction
(23 000)
Building of complete construction or parts
thereof
Mining
(26 000)
• Other mining and quarrying
Finance
(49 000)
• Financial intermediation, except insurance
and pension funding
+ +
++

Breakdown of year-on-year employment changes for
selected industries, Q1:2017
Finance
(152 000)
Mainly driven by an increase in:
• Other business services
• Financial intermediation except
insurance and pension funding
+
Manufacturing
(145 000)
• Manufacture of food products,
beverages and tobacco
products
• Manufacture if basic metals.
Fabricated metal products
+
Construction
(143 000)
• Building of complete constructions
or parts thereof
+

-40,0
-30,0
-20,0
-10,0
0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
-100,0
-80,0
-60,0
-40,0
-20,0
0,0
20,0
40,0
60,0
80,0
100,0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Yr-on-yr changes in mining production (%)
Yr-on-yr changes in mining employment ('000)
Change in employment Mining production % change
Year-on-year mining employment vs mining production

-30,0
-25,0
-20,0
-15,0
-10,0
-5,0
0,0
5,0
10,0
15,0
20,0
25,0
30,0
-300,0
-250,0
-200,0
-150,0
-100,0
-50,0
0,0
50,0
100,0
150,0
200,0
250,0
300,0
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2015 2016 2017
Yr-yr-changesinmanufacturingproduction(%)
Yr-on-yrchangesinemployment('000)
Change in employment Manufacturing % change
Year-on-year manufacturing employment vs manufacturing
production

-40,0
-30,0
-20,0
-10,0
0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
-200,0
-150,0
-100,0
-50,0
0,0
50,0
100,0
150,0
200,0
250,0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Yr-on-yrbuildingplanscompleted(%)
Yr-on-yrchangesinconstructionemployment('000)
Change in employment Construction % Change
Year-on-year construction employment vs building plans passed

Informal sector employment
2,4m 2,1m
2,7 m
0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
8,0
10,0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Million
Informal sector employment
declined by 14 000 to 2,7
million in Q1:2017

Employment share by occupation, Q1:2017
Close to a third of all
people employed in
Q1:2017 were
employed in
elementary and
domestic work
occupations
Manager
8,9%
Professional
5,5%
Technician
8,9%
Clerk
10,8%
Sales and services
15,3%
Skilled agriculture
0,4%
Craft and related
trade
12,4%
Plant and machine
operator
8,2%
Elementary
23,3%
Domestic worker
6,2%
Shares of
employment
by
occupation

Number of employees by contract type
134
12
1 857
8 493
3 408
1 890
8 359
3 396
0 3000 6000 9000
Limited
Permanent
Unspecified
Thousand
Q4:2016 Q1:2017
-33
113
189
1 857
8 493
3 408
1 859
8 380
3 219
0 3000 6000 9000
Limited
Permanent
Unspecified
Thousand Q1:2016 Q1:2017
-2
Quarter-on-quarter changes Year-on-year changes
The highest employment growth was among those with contract of permanent duration quarter
on quarter while employment decreased among those with contract of limited duration both
quarter on quarter and year on year basis.
Changes Changes

Formal sector employment
9,5m
11,3m
0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
8,0
10,0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Million
Formal sector employment increased by
181 000 to 11,3 million quarter on quarter

Sources of formal sector
employment:
Stats SA collects information about formal sector employment from:
Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS)
and the
Quarterly Employment Statistics (QES)

QES QLFS
collects information from
households
collects information from
businesses
VS
The two surveys yield different employment
estimates because of coverage, sample size,
reference periods, concepts and definitions.

Differences between QES and QLFS
Coverage
Payroll of VAT registered businesses in the formal
sector (excl. agriculture)
Employees only
Private h/holds & worker’s hostels (excl. institutions)
Total employment (+15 years) incl. informal sector,
private h/holds, agriculture & small bus.
QLFS QES
Sample
Size
20 000 businesses30 000 dwellings
Payroll last day of quarter1 week before interview
Reference
Period
Excluding Agriculture and private householdsAll industries
SIC
Employees on payroll of VAT registered businesses
(with annual turnover greater than R300 000)
Employers and own-account workers reg. for VAT or
income tax.
Employees paying income tax & those not paying tax
but in firms with 5 or more workers Definition

For comparison QLFS can be adjusted as follows
Exclude employers and own-account workers from formal
sector
Exclude Agriculture
Exclude Private households
Employment differences between QES and QLFS

In some cases, even after these adjustments, it is still
difficult to align the
• This is partly because the composition and structure of both
businesses and households are changing constantly.
• QLFS cannot isolate individuals who work in VAT registered
businesses
QES employment estimates
QLFS
&

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
QLFS 9,5 9,5 9,7 9,6 9,6 9,7 10,1 10,1 10,2 10,1 10,2 10,3 10,1 10,2 10,3 10,5 10,4 10,2 10,4 10,5 10,6
QES 8,4 8,4 8,4 8,5 8,5 9,0 9,0 9,0 9,0 9,1 8,9 9,0 8,9 9,3 9,4 9,6 9,7 9,6 9,7 9,7
0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
8,0
10,0
12,0
Million

Unemployment

Official unemployment rate Expanded unemployment rate
The official unemployment rate increased by
1,2 of a percentage point (q/q)
The expanded unemployment rate increased
by 0,8 of a percentage point (q/q)
6,2 million
people were unemployed in Q1:2017
An increase of 433 000 q/q
9,3 million
people were unemployed in Q1:2017
An increase of 391 000 q/q
Expanded unemployment consist of persons 15-64 years who did not
have a job and were available to take up a job or start a business in
the reference period (including discouraged work-seekers)
by 0,9 of a percentage
point q/q
23,2%
21,5%
27,7%
Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20162017
%
30,9%
28,7%
36,4%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20162017
%
29,8% 26,0% 40,0% 33,3%
by 1,5 percentage
points q/q
by 0,1 of a percentage
point q/q
by 1,4 percentage
points q/q

Labour market dashboard
4,4m
6,2m
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Million
Number of unemployed
57,0%
65,8%
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Long term unemployment
43,0%
34,2%
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Short term unemployment
The number of
unemployed people in
South Africa increased
from 4,4 million in 2008
to 6,2 million in Q1:2017
The proportion of those
in short – term
unemployment
increased from 31,8% in
Q4:2016 to 34,2% in
Q1:2017,
While the proportion of
those in long-term
unemployment
increased from 57,0% in
2008 to 65,8%

Provincial unemployment rate
South Africa
27,7%
(+1,2)
NC
30,7%
(-1,3)
WC
21,5%
(+1,0)
EC
32,2%
(+3,8)
NW
26,5%
(0,0)
MP
31,5%
(+0,5)
KZN
25,8%
(+1,9)
FS
35,5%
(+0,8)
LP
21,6%
(+2,3)
GP
29,2%
(+0,6)
Quarter-on-quarter
changes

Profile of those Not in Employment,
Education and Training
(NEET)

Youth NEET rate is calculated as the total number of
youth who are NEET as a proportion of the total youth-
specific working-age population.
Not in Employment, Education and Training
NEET
Those youth who are categorised as NEET are
considered to be disengaged from both work and
education.

NEET (15-24 years) by sex
30,6%
35,4%
33,0%
30,5%
34,3%
32,4%
-0,2
-1,0
-0,6
Male
Female
Total
Q1:2017 Q1:2016 Change
Q1:2017 NEET rate
decreased by 0,6 of a
percentage point.
The NEET rate for
females and males
decreased by 1,0 and
0,2 of a percentage
point.

Provincial NEET rate
South Africa
(15-24 years)
32,4%
(-0,6)
NC
39,3%
(+7,4)
WC
28,2%
(-2,9)
EC
34,1%
(-0,5)
NW
35,1%
(-1,7)
MP
35,7%
(+1,1)
KZN
36,5%
(+3,1)
FS
30,8%
(-3,7)
LP
26,6%
(-3,6)
GP
30,3%
(-1,8)
Year-on-year changes

Understanding
Non-economically active

Homemaker
(looking after
family)
17,2%
(by 0,8 pp
quarter-to-quarter)
Discouraged work-seeker
Too young or too
old to work
9,2%
Sick or
disabled
11,1%
Student 41,2%
(by 0,2 pp
quarter-to-quarter)
5 main
reasons for
NEA
14,6 million
people aged
15 – 64 years
were neither employed
nor unemployed.
A decrease of 421 000 q/q
Non-economically active
15,6%
(by 0,3 pp
quarter-to-quarter)
(by 0,4 pp
quarter-to-
quarter)
by 0,2 pp
quarter-to-
quarter)

Discouraged-work seeker
Is a person who: wanted to work
was available to work/start a business
was not employed during the reference period
But
did not take active steps to find
work during the last four weeks
Provided that
the main reason given for not seeking work was any
of the following
• no jobs available in the area;
• unable to find work requiring his/her skills;
• lost hope of finding any kind of work.

Share of discouraged work seekers by education level
0,8%
0,5%
3,7%
25,5%
69,6%
0,6%
0,7%
3,8%
23,0%
72,0%
Other
Graduates
Other tertiary
Matric
Less than matric
Q1:2017 compared to Q4:2016
Q4:2016 Q1:2017
0,8%
0,5%
3,7%
25,5%
69,6%
0,8%
0,4%
3,2%
24,8%
70,8%
Other
Graduates
Other tertiary
Matric
Less than matric
Q1:2017 compared to Q1:2016
Q1:2016 Q1:2017
Less than 5% of the discouraged work seekers have
tertiary education while about 70% had education level
below matric

Key findings: Q1:2017
QLFS
Q1:2017
The growth in employment by 144 000, was offset by the growth in the
number of job-seekers by 433 000 driving the unemployment rate to
27,7%
The growth in employment was observed in all industries
except Agriculture, trade and services.
Employment grew in all provinces quarter to quarter except in
Eastern Cape and Limpopo.
All Metros registered growth in employment except Nelson
Mandela Bay, Mangaung and City of Johannesburg which
remained virtually unchanged.
The unemployment rate of 27,7% is the highest observed since
September 2003.
Mining grew for the first time in Q1:2017 after declining for four
successive quarters.
The biggest growth was observed in Manufacturing (62 000),
Finance & other business services (49 000) and Mining
(26 000)..

Key findings: Q1:2017
QLFS
Q1:2017
There were approximately 500 000 extra people in employment in
Q1:2017 compared to the same period last year.
Of the 433 000 people who joined the ranks of the unemployed qrt
to qrt, approximately 58% were young people aged 15-34.
• This led to the increase of youth unemployment rate by 1,6
percentage points to 38,6%.
The unemployment among the youth is disproportionately high
even among those with other tertiary education
The year-on-year employment growth was driven by
manufacturing (145 000), construction (143 000) and finance
(152 000).
Unemployment rate among those with less than matric was
33,1% which is 5,4 percentage points higher than the national
average. While the unemployment rate among graduates
remained at 7,3%.
The youth unemployment rate among those with other tertiary
education (30,2%) is 3 times higher than that of their adult
counterparts

Thank you

Quarterly Labour Force Survey - Q1:2017

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