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Quarterly Labour Force Survey
Q2:2019
Risenga Maluleke
Statistician-General #StatsSA
27,6%
29,0%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
South Africa’s unemployment rate increased by 1,4 percentage points to 29,0% in
Q2 of 2019. The highest unemployment rate since Q1 of 2008
Unemployment rate from
Q1:2008 to Q2:2019
25,5%
29,0%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
23,2%
29,0%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Unemployment rate from
Q2:2009 to Q2:2019
27,2%
29,0%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
10 Years 5 Years 1 Year
Q2
2009
Q2
2019
The unemployment rate has remained stubbornly high over time. There has been 1,4
percentage points increase between Q1:2019 and Q2:2019.
Unemployment rate increased by
5,8 percentage points between
Q2:2009 and Q2:2019
Q2
2019
Q2
2014
Unemployment increased from 25,5%
in Q2:2014 to 29,0% in Q2:2019 by
3,5 percentage points
Q2
2019
Q2
2018
Unemployment rate increased by 1,8
percentage points compared to
the same period last year
UnemployedEmployed
16,3 6,7
2,7
12,7
Other NEA
Not Economically Active
Discouraged
workseekers
15,5 million
ILO hierarchy – Employed first then unemployed
and the remainder is NEA (including discouraged
job-seekers). 3 mutually exclusive groups.
Cannot be in two groups at the same time,
Labour force
23,0 million
38,4 million
People of working age in South Africa (15 – 64 year olds)
M
M
M
Employed Unemployed
South Africa’s
official
unemployment rate
stands at
29,0%
M
Increased by 1,4
ppts between
Q1:2019 and
Q2:2019
The working age population (15-64 years) in Q2:2019 was 38,4 million
2008
Other Not Economically
Active
Unemployed
Employed
LabourForce
-248 000 q/q
Discouraged work
seekers
NotEconomically
Active
2019
Changes between Q1:2019 and
Q2:2019
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
40 000
Jan-Mar08
Apr-Jun08
Jul-Sep08
Oct-Dec08
Jan-Mar09
Apr-Jun09
Jul-Sep09
Oct-Dec09
Jan-Mar10
Apr-Jun10
Jul-Sep10
Oct-Dec10
Jan-Mar11
Apr-Jun11
Jul-Sep11
Oct-Dec11
Jan-Mar12
Apr-Jun12
Jul-Sep12
Oct-Dec12
Jan-Mar13
Apr-Jun13
Jul-Sep13
Oct-Dec13
Jan-Mar14
Apr-Jun14
Jul-Sep14
Oct-Dec14
Jan-Mar15
Apr-Jun15
Jul-Sep15
Oct-Dec15
Jan-Mar16
Apr-Jun16
Jul-Sep16
Oct-Dec16
Jan-Mar17
Apr-Jun17
Jul-Sep17
Oct-Dec17
Jan-Mar18
Apr-Jun18
Jul-Sep18
Oct-Dec18
Jan-Mar19
Apr-Jun19
Employed
Unemployed
Not Economically Active
Labour market indicators between
Q1:2008 and Q2:2019
-77 000 q/q
+455 000 q/q
+21 000 q/q
The working age population (15 – 64 years) increased by 150 000 people between
Q1:2019 and Q2:2019
EMPLOYMENT
&
LABOUR MARKET RATES
QLFS
Q2:2019
QLFS Q4:2018
The number of employed persons increased by 21 000 to 16,3 million in Q2:2019
Number of employed
From Q2:2009 to Q2:2019
The number of employed people
increased by 1,9 million from
14,4 million in Q2:2009 to 16,3
million in Q2:2019
14,4
16,3
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Million
15,1
16,3
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Million
16,3
16,3
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Million
10 Years 5 Years 1 Year
The number of employed people
increased by 25 thousand
from 16,29 million in Q2:2018 to
16,31 million in Q2:2019
The number of employed people
increased by 1,2 million from
15,1 million in Q2:2014 to 16,3
million in Q2:2019
Q2:2009 Q2:2019 Q2:2014 Q2:2019 Q2:2018 Q2:2019
44,5%
42,4%
57,9% 59,8%
35,0
45,0
55,0
65,0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Employed / population ratio (Absorption) Labour force participation rate
The Labour force participation rate increased by 1,9 percentage points from 57,9% in
Q2:2009 to 59,8% in Q2:2019
Labour force participation rate is the proportion of
the working-age population that is either employed
or unemployed.
Absorption rate is the proportion of the working-age
population that is employed.
13,4 % Points
difference
17,4% Points
difference
Labour force participation and
absorption rate, 2009-2019
Unemployment rate Absorption rate Participation rate
Change: Percentage points
Q1:2019 to Q2:2019
Labour market rates vary significantly depending on education level
Labour market rates by
education level, Q2:2019
18,3%
9,1%
29,4%
34,5%
29,0%
Other
tertiary
Graduates
Matric
Less than
matric
Total
69,3%
80,6%
47,8%
32,7%
42,4%
84,9%
88,7%
67,7%
49,9%
59,8%
+1,9
+1,0
+1,1
+1,3
+0,2
+0,5-0,6
-0,9
+0,5
-0,3
-0,2+1,4
+2,0
+0,7
+1,2
+1,2
56,4%
35,6%
23,3%
17,2%
10,5%
29,0%
0,0 20,0 40,0 60,0 80,0100,0
15-24 yrs
25-34 yrs
35-44 yrs
45-54 yrs
55-64 yrs
15-64 yrs
26,0%
74,0%
80,4%
75,3%
45,3%
59,8%
0,0 20,0 40,0 60,0 80,0 100,0
15-24 yrs
25-34 yrs
35-44 yrs
45-54 yrs
55-64 yrs
15-64 yrs
11,3%
47,6%
61,6%
62,4%
40,5%
42,4%
0,0 50,0 100,0
15-24 yrs
25-34 yrs
35-44 yrs
45-54 yrs
55-64 yrs
15-64 yrs
+0,4
+1,5
+1,5
+1,4
+1,2
+1,2
-0,6
-0,3
-0,7
+0,2
+1,5
+0,6
+1,2
+0,5
+1,2
Unemployment rate Absorption rate Participation rate
Change: Percentage points
Q1:2019 to Q2:2019Labour market rates by age
group, Q2:2019
The unemployment rate for those aged 25-34 (35,6%) is more than double that of the
45-54 (17,2%) year olds.
15 – 24 years 35 – 64 years
Change: Percentage points
Q1:2019 to Q2:2019
Unemployment rate by education
level and age group, Q2:2019
The unemployment rate among the youth is higher irrespective of education level.
57,3%
33,7%
55,8%
58,9%
56,4%
Other
tertiary
Graduates
Matric
Less than
matric
Total
26,4%
13,4%
33,3%
42,8%
35,6%
+0,9
+0,4
+1,2 9,3%
5,3%
18,1%
25,3%
19,4%
+0,5
+1,2
+0,7
+2,7
+9,8
+1,4
+1,8
+1,3
+1,1
+2,0
+1,0
0,0
25 – 34 years
PROFILE OF THOSE NOT IN
EMPLOYMENT, EDUCATION OR
TRAINING
(NEET)
QLFS
Q2:2019
EducationWork
NEET
Those young people
(15-34 years) who are
categorised as NEET
are considered to be
disengaged from both
work and education.
Youth NEET rate is calculated as the total number of youth who are NEET as a proportion of the total
youth-specific working-age population
?
Not in employment, education or training (NEET)
28,9%
30,5%
34,4% 34,1%
20%
22%
24%
26%
28%
30%
32%
34%
36%
Q2: 2018 Q2: 2019
FEMALE NEET
MALE NEET
NEET (15-24 years) by sex
Approximately 3,3 million (32,3%) out of 10,3 million young people aged 15-24 years
were not in employment, education or training (NEET). The overall NEET rate increased
by 0,7 of a percentage point in Q2:2019 compared to Q2:2018.
FEMALE NEET
Down by 0,2 of a
percentage point
MALE NEET
Up by 1,6
percentage points
15-24 YEARS
28,1%
28,6%
30,4%
32,3%
33,2%
34,1%
34,5%
34,8%
35,4%
37,0%
LP
WC
GP
RSA
FS
MP
EC
KZN
NW
NC
(-3,4)
(+0,2)
(+0,5)
(-1,1)
(-0,3)
(+0,7)
(+1,8)
(+4,7)
(+0,6)
(+1,4)
( ) Y/Y Change
Provincial NEET rate (Year on Year
Change Q2:2018 – Q2:2019)
NC recorded the highest rate of young people aged 15-24 years not in employment,
education or training in Q2: 2019.
35,0%
36,8%
43,6% 43,9%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Q2: 2018 Q2: 2019
FEMALE NEET
MALE NEET
NEET (15-34 years) by sex
Approximately 8,2 million (40,3%) out of 20,4 million young people aged 15-34 years,
were not in employment, education or training (NEET). The overall NEET rate
increased by 1,0 percentage point y/y.
Female NEET
Up by 0,3 of a
percentage point
Male NEET
Up by 1,8
percentage points
15-34 YEARS
Provincial NEET rate (Year –on – Year
Change Q2:2018 – Q2:2019)
The NW province had the highest rate of young people aged 15-34 years not in
employment, education or training at 45,9%. The rate increased by 1,8 percentage points
year-on-year.
32,6%
37,5%
38,7%
40,3%
41,5%
41,8%
42,9%
44,6%
45,2%
45,9%
WC
GP
LP
RSA
MP
FS
KZN
EC
NC
NW
( ) Y/Y Change
(+1,8)
(+0,7)
(+1,5)
(-0,3)
(+4,5)
(+1,3)
(+1,0)
(+1,5)
(+0,4)
(+1,9)
EMPLOYMENT
QLFS
Q2:2019
5 00049 000
Q/Q
49 000
Q/Q
The number of persons employed increased by 21 000 in Q2:2019 to 16,3
million Q/Q.
Formal Sector
(Non agricultural)
(11,2 million jobs)
Informal Sector
(Non agricultural)
(3,0 million jobs)
Agriculture
(842 thousand jobs)
Private
households
(1,3 million jobs)
increased bydecreased by increased by decreased by
Q/Q
114 000
Q/Q
Trade, construction and agriculture have higher employment shares relative to
their GDP contribution.
Share of
Nominal
GDP
(Q1:2019)
24,7%
15,0%
20,3%
13,1%
3,9%
9,7%
1,9%
7,6%
3,8%
0,9%
2,3%
5,2%
6,0%
7,7%
8,4%
11,0%
15,3%
21,0%
22,2%
0,0 5,0 10,0 15,0 20,0 25,0 30,0
Utilities
Mining
Agriculture
Transport
Private Households
Construction
Manufacturing
Finance
Trade
Services
Employment and GDP share
per industry
Employment shares, Q2: 2019
-49
-42
-36
-21
1
5
9
24
48
84
Private households
Transport
Mining
Finance
Utilities
Agriculture
Manufacturing
Construction
Community and social services
Trade
Quarter-on-quarter change (‘000)
-113
-70
-54
-45
-32
-9
-1
45
96
210
Construction
Community and social services
Mining
Private households
Transport
Utilities
Agriculture
Manufacturing
Finance
Trade
Year-on-year change (‘000)
The largest quarter-on-quarter employment gains were observed in trade, services
and construction. Largest declines were observed in private households, transport, mining and
finance.
Employment changes by
industry
84 000
Mainly driven by gains in:
v Other retail trade.
v Retail trade not in
stores.
v Restaurants, bars and
canteens.
Trade ConstructionServices
Mainly driven by gains in:
v Building of complete
constructions and parts
thereof
24 000
Q/Q Q/Q
Employment gains were mainly driven by trade (84 000), services (48 000),
construction (24 000) and manufacturing (9 000).
Quarter-on-quarter
employment changes:
Gains
48 000
Q/Q
Manufacturing
9 000
Q/Q
Mainly driven by gains in:
v Other services
activities
v Education
Mainly driven by gains
in manufacture of:
v Beverages
v General purpose
machinery
v Structural metals
v Basic iron and steel
49 000
Private households MiningTransport
Mainly driven by losses in:
v Mining of non-ferrous
metal ores
36 000
Employment losses were mainly driven by private households, transport, mining and
finance.
Quarter-on-quarter
employment changes:
Losses
42 000
Finance
21 000
Mainly driven by losses in:
v Other land transport
v Telecommunication
Mainly driven by losses
in:
v Architectural,
engineering and
other technical
activities
v Legal, bookkeeping
and auditing
activities
Q/Q Q/Q Q/Q Q/Q
R
Employment share by
occupation, Q2:2019
Close to a third (28,9%) of all people employed in Q2:2019 were employed in
elementary and domestic work occupations.
0,3%
5,1%
6,1%
8,5%
8,8%
9,4%
10,5%
12,0%
16,5%
22,8%
Skilled agriculture
Professional
Domestic worker
Plant and machine operator
Technician
Manager
Clerk
Craft and related trade
Sales and services
Elementary
0,0 5,0 10,0 15,0 20,0 25,0
The formal sector in South Africa accounts for 68,5% of total employment.
10,1M
11,2M
2,2M
3,0M
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Millions
Informal sector employment
Formal sector employment
Informal sector employment increased from
2,2 million in Q2:2009 to 3,0 million in Q2:2019
Formal sector employment has shown an upward trend,
increasing from 10,1 million in Q2:2009 to 11,2 million
in Q2:2019
Q2:2009 Q2:2019
UNEMPLOYMENT
QLFS
Q2:2019
2,6M
4,3M
4,8M
1,7M
1,9M
1,9M
4,3M
6,7M
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
71,5%28,5%
60,8%39,2%
The number of unemployed people in South Africa increased from 4,3 million in
Q2:2009 to 6,7 million in Q2:2019. The proportion of those in long-term unemployment
increased from 60,8% in Q2:2009 to 71,5% in Q2:2019
Number of unemployed for one
year or longer
Long Term Unemployed*
Short Term Unemployed
Number of unemployed
* Unemployed for a year or longer
Q2
2009
Q2
2019
M
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Q2:2009 Q2:2019
28,7%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Q2:2019 Q2:2019
31.3%
27,1%
SA: 29,0%
42,5%
35,0%
SA: 38,5%
Official Unemployment Rate
29,0% (+1,4 % Points Change Q/Q)
Expanded Unemployment Rate
38,5% (+0,5 % Point Change Q/Q)
10,2 million
people were unemployed in Q2:2019
An increase of 232 000 q/q
Expanded Definition includes the following
- Official unemployment (searched and available) 6,7 M
- Available to work but are/or
• Discouraged work-seekers 2,7 M
• Have other reasons for not searching 0,8 M
6,7 million
people were unemployed in Q2:2019
An increase of 455 000 q/q
6,6%
11,4%
22,2%
31,1%
27,6%
7,4%
11,2%
22,5%
32,7%
29,0%
White
Indian/Asian
Coloured
Black
African
Both sexes
Unemployment Rate
by Population Group
Q2:2019 Q1:2019
6,4%
9,4%
21,4%
29,7%
26,1%
6,1%
8,5%
22,1%
30,8%
27,1%
Male Unemployment Rate
By Population Group
Q2:2019 Q1:2019
Black women are the most vulnerable
with unemployment rate of over 30%.
OFFICIAL unemployment rate
by population group and sex
Black African women are the most vulnerable with an unemployment rate of over 30%.
6,8%
15,2%
23,2%
32,8%
29,3%
9,2%
16,2%
23,0%
35,0%
31,3%
Female Unemployment Rate by
Population Group
Q2:2019 Q1:2019
9,4%
15,9%
28,8%
42,5%
38,0%
9,8%
15,5%
29,2%
42,0%
38,5%
White
Indian/Asian
Coloured
Black
African
Both sexes
Expanded unemployment
rate by population group
Q2:2019 Q1:2019
8,0%
12,5%
27,2%
39,4%
34,9%
7,6%
12,3%
27,0%
39,5%
35,0%
0,0% 10,0% 20,0% 30,0% 40,0% 50,0%
Male expanded
unemployment rate
Q2:2019 Q1:2019
11,3%
21,8%
30,5%
45,9%
41,5%
12,7%
21,2%
31,6%
46,9%
42,5%
Female expanded
unemployment rate
Q2:2019 Q1:2019
Irrespective of sex, the black African and coloured population groups remain
vulnerable in the labour market
EXPANDED unemployment rate by
population group and sex
Official Expanded
Highest official unemployment rate recorded in EC and highest expanded
unemployment rate recorded in NW. LP, KZN and NC provinces all have more than 15 % points
difference between their expanded and official unemployment rates
Provincial unemployment rate:
Official vs Expanded Q2:2019
41,1%
23,8%
42,1%
38,5%
44,8%
35,0%
46,6%
41,6%
43,5%
46,5%
20,3%
20,4%
26,1%
29,0%
29,4%
31,1%
33,0%
34,4%
34,7%
35,4%
LP
WC
KZN
RSA
NC
GP
NW
FS
MP
EC
20,8% points difference
15,4% points difference
16,0% points difference
UNDERSTANDING
NON-ECONOMICALLY ACTIVE
(NEA)
QLFS
Q2:2019
Student
40,6%
Home-maker
16,3%
Illness/disability
10,1%
Too old/young to work;
9,7%
Discouraged work seekers;
17,8%
Q1:2019 to Q2:2019
% Change5 main reasons for NEA
NEA
M
M
M
M15,5 M
Quarter-on-quarter changes
Thousand
Student 143
Homemaker -86
Illness/disability -85
Too young/too old to work -42
Discouraged work seekers -248
Other -7
Down by 1,2
% points
Down by 0,1
of a % point
Q1:2019 to Q2:2019
Change in levels
Down by
0,2 of a %
point
Up by 1,7 %
points
Down by 0,3
of a % point
15,5 million people aged 15 – 64 years were not economically active.
This is a decrease of 326 000 q/q
Reasons why – Not
economically active (NEA)
UNEMPLOYMENT
RATE
EMPLOYMENT
GAINS
EMPLOYMENT
LOSSES
YOUTH
Unemployment rate
increased by 1,4
percentage points to 29,0%
Absorption rate decreased by 0,2
of a percentage point and labour
force participation rate increased
by 1,0 percentage point
Employment gains were
recorded in Trade
(84 000), Services (48 000),
Construction (24 000) and
Manufacturing (9 000).
Largest employment
losses were observed in
Private HH (49 000),
Transport (42 00), Mining
(36 000) and Finance
(21 000)
Of the 10,3 million persons
aged 15-24 years, 32,3% were
not in employment, education
or training.
Recap
Q2:2019
Ndzi hela kwala!
QLFS
Q2:2019

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Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS), 2nd Quarter 2019

  • 1. Quarterly Labour Force Survey Q2:2019 Risenga Maluleke Statistician-General #StatsSA
  • 2. 27,6% 29,0% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 South Africa’s unemployment rate increased by 1,4 percentage points to 29,0% in Q2 of 2019. The highest unemployment rate since Q1 of 2008 Unemployment rate from Q1:2008 to Q2:2019
  • 3. 25,5% 29,0% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 23,2% 29,0% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Unemployment rate from Q2:2009 to Q2:2019 27,2% 29,0% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 10 Years 5 Years 1 Year Q2 2009 Q2 2019 The unemployment rate has remained stubbornly high over time. There has been 1,4 percentage points increase between Q1:2019 and Q2:2019. Unemployment rate increased by 5,8 percentage points between Q2:2009 and Q2:2019 Q2 2019 Q2 2014 Unemployment increased from 25,5% in Q2:2014 to 29,0% in Q2:2019 by 3,5 percentage points Q2 2019 Q2 2018 Unemployment rate increased by 1,8 percentage points compared to the same period last year
  • 4. UnemployedEmployed 16,3 6,7 2,7 12,7 Other NEA Not Economically Active Discouraged workseekers 15,5 million ILO hierarchy – Employed first then unemployed and the remainder is NEA (including discouraged job-seekers). 3 mutually exclusive groups. Cannot be in two groups at the same time, Labour force 23,0 million 38,4 million People of working age in South Africa (15 – 64 year olds) M M M Employed Unemployed South Africa’s official unemployment rate stands at 29,0% M Increased by 1,4 ppts between Q1:2019 and Q2:2019 The working age population (15-64 years) in Q2:2019 was 38,4 million
  • 5. 2008 Other Not Economically Active Unemployed Employed LabourForce -248 000 q/q Discouraged work seekers NotEconomically Active 2019 Changes between Q1:2019 and Q2:2019 5 000 10 000 15 000 20 000 25 000 30 000 35 000 40 000 Jan-Mar08 Apr-Jun08 Jul-Sep08 Oct-Dec08 Jan-Mar09 Apr-Jun09 Jul-Sep09 Oct-Dec09 Jan-Mar10 Apr-Jun10 Jul-Sep10 Oct-Dec10 Jan-Mar11 Apr-Jun11 Jul-Sep11 Oct-Dec11 Jan-Mar12 Apr-Jun12 Jul-Sep12 Oct-Dec12 Jan-Mar13 Apr-Jun13 Jul-Sep13 Oct-Dec13 Jan-Mar14 Apr-Jun14 Jul-Sep14 Oct-Dec14 Jan-Mar15 Apr-Jun15 Jul-Sep15 Oct-Dec15 Jan-Mar16 Apr-Jun16 Jul-Sep16 Oct-Dec16 Jan-Mar17 Apr-Jun17 Jul-Sep17 Oct-Dec17 Jan-Mar18 Apr-Jun18 Jul-Sep18 Oct-Dec18 Jan-Mar19 Apr-Jun19 Employed Unemployed Not Economically Active Labour market indicators between Q1:2008 and Q2:2019 -77 000 q/q +455 000 q/q +21 000 q/q The working age population (15 – 64 years) increased by 150 000 people between Q1:2019 and Q2:2019
  • 7. QLFS Q4:2018 The number of employed persons increased by 21 000 to 16,3 million in Q2:2019 Number of employed From Q2:2009 to Q2:2019 The number of employed people increased by 1,9 million from 14,4 million in Q2:2009 to 16,3 million in Q2:2019 14,4 16,3 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 Million 15,1 16,3 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 Million 16,3 16,3 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 Million 10 Years 5 Years 1 Year The number of employed people increased by 25 thousand from 16,29 million in Q2:2018 to 16,31 million in Q2:2019 The number of employed people increased by 1,2 million from 15,1 million in Q2:2014 to 16,3 million in Q2:2019 Q2:2009 Q2:2019 Q2:2014 Q2:2019 Q2:2018 Q2:2019
  • 8. 44,5% 42,4% 57,9% 59,8% 35,0 45,0 55,0 65,0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Employed / population ratio (Absorption) Labour force participation rate The Labour force participation rate increased by 1,9 percentage points from 57,9% in Q2:2009 to 59,8% in Q2:2019 Labour force participation rate is the proportion of the working-age population that is either employed or unemployed. Absorption rate is the proportion of the working-age population that is employed. 13,4 % Points difference 17,4% Points difference Labour force participation and absorption rate, 2009-2019
  • 9. Unemployment rate Absorption rate Participation rate Change: Percentage points Q1:2019 to Q2:2019 Labour market rates vary significantly depending on education level Labour market rates by education level, Q2:2019 18,3% 9,1% 29,4% 34,5% 29,0% Other tertiary Graduates Matric Less than matric Total 69,3% 80,6% 47,8% 32,7% 42,4% 84,9% 88,7% 67,7% 49,9% 59,8% +1,9 +1,0 +1,1 +1,3 +0,2 +0,5-0,6 -0,9 +0,5 -0,3 -0,2+1,4 +2,0 +0,7 +1,2 +1,2
  • 10. 56,4% 35,6% 23,3% 17,2% 10,5% 29,0% 0,0 20,0 40,0 60,0 80,0100,0 15-24 yrs 25-34 yrs 35-44 yrs 45-54 yrs 55-64 yrs 15-64 yrs 26,0% 74,0% 80,4% 75,3% 45,3% 59,8% 0,0 20,0 40,0 60,0 80,0 100,0 15-24 yrs 25-34 yrs 35-44 yrs 45-54 yrs 55-64 yrs 15-64 yrs 11,3% 47,6% 61,6% 62,4% 40,5% 42,4% 0,0 50,0 100,0 15-24 yrs 25-34 yrs 35-44 yrs 45-54 yrs 55-64 yrs 15-64 yrs +0,4 +1,5 +1,5 +1,4 +1,2 +1,2 -0,6 -0,3 -0,7 +0,2 +1,5 +0,6 +1,2 +0,5 +1,2 Unemployment rate Absorption rate Participation rate Change: Percentage points Q1:2019 to Q2:2019Labour market rates by age group, Q2:2019 The unemployment rate for those aged 25-34 (35,6%) is more than double that of the 45-54 (17,2%) year olds.
  • 11. 15 – 24 years 35 – 64 years Change: Percentage points Q1:2019 to Q2:2019 Unemployment rate by education level and age group, Q2:2019 The unemployment rate among the youth is higher irrespective of education level. 57,3% 33,7% 55,8% 58,9% 56,4% Other tertiary Graduates Matric Less than matric Total 26,4% 13,4% 33,3% 42,8% 35,6% +0,9 +0,4 +1,2 9,3% 5,3% 18,1% 25,3% 19,4% +0,5 +1,2 +0,7 +2,7 +9,8 +1,4 +1,8 +1,3 +1,1 +2,0 +1,0 0,0 25 – 34 years
  • 12. PROFILE OF THOSE NOT IN EMPLOYMENT, EDUCATION OR TRAINING (NEET) QLFS Q2:2019
  • 13. EducationWork NEET Those young people (15-34 years) who are categorised as NEET are considered to be disengaged from both work and education. Youth NEET rate is calculated as the total number of youth who are NEET as a proportion of the total youth-specific working-age population ? Not in employment, education or training (NEET)
  • 14. 28,9% 30,5% 34,4% 34,1% 20% 22% 24% 26% 28% 30% 32% 34% 36% Q2: 2018 Q2: 2019 FEMALE NEET MALE NEET NEET (15-24 years) by sex Approximately 3,3 million (32,3%) out of 10,3 million young people aged 15-24 years were not in employment, education or training (NEET). The overall NEET rate increased by 0,7 of a percentage point in Q2:2019 compared to Q2:2018. FEMALE NEET Down by 0,2 of a percentage point MALE NEET Up by 1,6 percentage points 15-24 YEARS
  • 15. 28,1% 28,6% 30,4% 32,3% 33,2% 34,1% 34,5% 34,8% 35,4% 37,0% LP WC GP RSA FS MP EC KZN NW NC (-3,4) (+0,2) (+0,5) (-1,1) (-0,3) (+0,7) (+1,8) (+4,7) (+0,6) (+1,4) ( ) Y/Y Change Provincial NEET rate (Year on Year Change Q2:2018 – Q2:2019) NC recorded the highest rate of young people aged 15-24 years not in employment, education or training in Q2: 2019.
  • 16. 35,0% 36,8% 43,6% 43,9% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% Q2: 2018 Q2: 2019 FEMALE NEET MALE NEET NEET (15-34 years) by sex Approximately 8,2 million (40,3%) out of 20,4 million young people aged 15-34 years, were not in employment, education or training (NEET). The overall NEET rate increased by 1,0 percentage point y/y. Female NEET Up by 0,3 of a percentage point Male NEET Up by 1,8 percentage points 15-34 YEARS
  • 17. Provincial NEET rate (Year –on – Year Change Q2:2018 – Q2:2019) The NW province had the highest rate of young people aged 15-34 years not in employment, education or training at 45,9%. The rate increased by 1,8 percentage points year-on-year. 32,6% 37,5% 38,7% 40,3% 41,5% 41,8% 42,9% 44,6% 45,2% 45,9% WC GP LP RSA MP FS KZN EC NC NW ( ) Y/Y Change (+1,8) (+0,7) (+1,5) (-0,3) (+4,5) (+1,3) (+1,0) (+1,5) (+0,4) (+1,9)
  • 19. 5 00049 000 Q/Q 49 000 Q/Q The number of persons employed increased by 21 000 in Q2:2019 to 16,3 million Q/Q. Formal Sector (Non agricultural) (11,2 million jobs) Informal Sector (Non agricultural) (3,0 million jobs) Agriculture (842 thousand jobs) Private households (1,3 million jobs) increased bydecreased by increased by decreased by Q/Q 114 000 Q/Q
  • 20. Trade, construction and agriculture have higher employment shares relative to their GDP contribution. Share of Nominal GDP (Q1:2019) 24,7% 15,0% 20,3% 13,1% 3,9% 9,7% 1,9% 7,6% 3,8% 0,9% 2,3% 5,2% 6,0% 7,7% 8,4% 11,0% 15,3% 21,0% 22,2% 0,0 5,0 10,0 15,0 20,0 25,0 30,0 Utilities Mining Agriculture Transport Private Households Construction Manufacturing Finance Trade Services Employment and GDP share per industry Employment shares, Q2: 2019
  • 21. -49 -42 -36 -21 1 5 9 24 48 84 Private households Transport Mining Finance Utilities Agriculture Manufacturing Construction Community and social services Trade Quarter-on-quarter change (‘000) -113 -70 -54 -45 -32 -9 -1 45 96 210 Construction Community and social services Mining Private households Transport Utilities Agriculture Manufacturing Finance Trade Year-on-year change (‘000) The largest quarter-on-quarter employment gains were observed in trade, services and construction. Largest declines were observed in private households, transport, mining and finance. Employment changes by industry
  • 22. 84 000 Mainly driven by gains in: v Other retail trade. v Retail trade not in stores. v Restaurants, bars and canteens. Trade ConstructionServices Mainly driven by gains in: v Building of complete constructions and parts thereof 24 000 Q/Q Q/Q Employment gains were mainly driven by trade (84 000), services (48 000), construction (24 000) and manufacturing (9 000). Quarter-on-quarter employment changes: Gains 48 000 Q/Q Manufacturing 9 000 Q/Q Mainly driven by gains in: v Other services activities v Education Mainly driven by gains in manufacture of: v Beverages v General purpose machinery v Structural metals v Basic iron and steel
  • 23. 49 000 Private households MiningTransport Mainly driven by losses in: v Mining of non-ferrous metal ores 36 000 Employment losses were mainly driven by private households, transport, mining and finance. Quarter-on-quarter employment changes: Losses 42 000 Finance 21 000 Mainly driven by losses in: v Other land transport v Telecommunication Mainly driven by losses in: v Architectural, engineering and other technical activities v Legal, bookkeeping and auditing activities Q/Q Q/Q Q/Q Q/Q R
  • 24. Employment share by occupation, Q2:2019 Close to a third (28,9%) of all people employed in Q2:2019 were employed in elementary and domestic work occupations. 0,3% 5,1% 6,1% 8,5% 8,8% 9,4% 10,5% 12,0% 16,5% 22,8% Skilled agriculture Professional Domestic worker Plant and machine operator Technician Manager Clerk Craft and related trade Sales and services Elementary 0,0 5,0 10,0 15,0 20,0 25,0
  • 25. The formal sector in South Africa accounts for 68,5% of total employment. 10,1M 11,2M 2,2M 3,0M 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Millions Informal sector employment Formal sector employment Informal sector employment increased from 2,2 million in Q2:2009 to 3,0 million in Q2:2019 Formal sector employment has shown an upward trend, increasing from 10,1 million in Q2:2009 to 11,2 million in Q2:2019 Q2:2009 Q2:2019
  • 27. 2,6M 4,3M 4,8M 1,7M 1,9M 1,9M 4,3M 6,7M 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 71,5%28,5% 60,8%39,2% The number of unemployed people in South Africa increased from 4,3 million in Q2:2009 to 6,7 million in Q2:2019. The proportion of those in long-term unemployment increased from 60,8% in Q2:2009 to 71,5% in Q2:2019 Number of unemployed for one year or longer Long Term Unemployed* Short Term Unemployed Number of unemployed * Unemployed for a year or longer Q2 2009 Q2 2019 M
  • 28. 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% Q2:2009 Q2:2019 28,7% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% Q2:2019 Q2:2019 31.3% 27,1% SA: 29,0% 42,5% 35,0% SA: 38,5% Official Unemployment Rate 29,0% (+1,4 % Points Change Q/Q) Expanded Unemployment Rate 38,5% (+0,5 % Point Change Q/Q) 10,2 million people were unemployed in Q2:2019 An increase of 232 000 q/q Expanded Definition includes the following - Official unemployment (searched and available) 6,7 M - Available to work but are/or • Discouraged work-seekers 2,7 M • Have other reasons for not searching 0,8 M 6,7 million people were unemployed in Q2:2019 An increase of 455 000 q/q
  • 29. 6,6% 11,4% 22,2% 31,1% 27,6% 7,4% 11,2% 22,5% 32,7% 29,0% White Indian/Asian Coloured Black African Both sexes Unemployment Rate by Population Group Q2:2019 Q1:2019 6,4% 9,4% 21,4% 29,7% 26,1% 6,1% 8,5% 22,1% 30,8% 27,1% Male Unemployment Rate By Population Group Q2:2019 Q1:2019 Black women are the most vulnerable with unemployment rate of over 30%. OFFICIAL unemployment rate by population group and sex Black African women are the most vulnerable with an unemployment rate of over 30%. 6,8% 15,2% 23,2% 32,8% 29,3% 9,2% 16,2% 23,0% 35,0% 31,3% Female Unemployment Rate by Population Group Q2:2019 Q1:2019
  • 30. 9,4% 15,9% 28,8% 42,5% 38,0% 9,8% 15,5% 29,2% 42,0% 38,5% White Indian/Asian Coloured Black African Both sexes Expanded unemployment rate by population group Q2:2019 Q1:2019 8,0% 12,5% 27,2% 39,4% 34,9% 7,6% 12,3% 27,0% 39,5% 35,0% 0,0% 10,0% 20,0% 30,0% 40,0% 50,0% Male expanded unemployment rate Q2:2019 Q1:2019 11,3% 21,8% 30,5% 45,9% 41,5% 12,7% 21,2% 31,6% 46,9% 42,5% Female expanded unemployment rate Q2:2019 Q1:2019 Irrespective of sex, the black African and coloured population groups remain vulnerable in the labour market EXPANDED unemployment rate by population group and sex
  • 31. Official Expanded Highest official unemployment rate recorded in EC and highest expanded unemployment rate recorded in NW. LP, KZN and NC provinces all have more than 15 % points difference between their expanded and official unemployment rates Provincial unemployment rate: Official vs Expanded Q2:2019 41,1% 23,8% 42,1% 38,5% 44,8% 35,0% 46,6% 41,6% 43,5% 46,5% 20,3% 20,4% 26,1% 29,0% 29,4% 31,1% 33,0% 34,4% 34,7% 35,4% LP WC KZN RSA NC GP NW FS MP EC 20,8% points difference 15,4% points difference 16,0% points difference
  • 33. Student 40,6% Home-maker 16,3% Illness/disability 10,1% Too old/young to work; 9,7% Discouraged work seekers; 17,8% Q1:2019 to Q2:2019 % Change5 main reasons for NEA NEA M M M M15,5 M Quarter-on-quarter changes Thousand Student 143 Homemaker -86 Illness/disability -85 Too young/too old to work -42 Discouraged work seekers -248 Other -7 Down by 1,2 % points Down by 0,1 of a % point Q1:2019 to Q2:2019 Change in levels Down by 0,2 of a % point Up by 1,7 % points Down by 0,3 of a % point 15,5 million people aged 15 – 64 years were not economically active. This is a decrease of 326 000 q/q Reasons why – Not economically active (NEA)
  • 34. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE EMPLOYMENT GAINS EMPLOYMENT LOSSES YOUTH Unemployment rate increased by 1,4 percentage points to 29,0% Absorption rate decreased by 0,2 of a percentage point and labour force participation rate increased by 1,0 percentage point Employment gains were recorded in Trade (84 000), Services (48 000), Construction (24 000) and Manufacturing (9 000). Largest employment losses were observed in Private HH (49 000), Transport (42 00), Mining (36 000) and Finance (21 000) Of the 10,3 million persons aged 15-24 years, 32,3% were not in employment, education or training. Recap Q2:2019