Gross Domestic Product (GDP), 1st Quarter 2019
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The South African economy slumped sharply in the first three months of 2019, contracting by 3,2%.1 Seven of the ten industries took a knock, with manufacturing, mining and trade the biggest contributors to the fall. Construction, mining and trade are in recession. The 3,2% decline is the biggest quarterly fall in economic activity since the first quarter of 2009, when the economy – under strain from the global financial crisis – tumbled by 6,1%. The manufacturing industry was the biggest drag on growth in the first quarter of 2019, falling by 8,8%. This was driven mostly by declines in petroleum, transport and wood and paper. Read more here: http://www.statssa.gov.za/?p=12200
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Gross Domestic Product (GDP), 1st Quarter 2019
- 1. GDP Q1: 2019 Embargoed until 11:30am @StatsSA #GDP GDP Q1: 2019 Gross domestic product 1st quarter 2019 4 June 2019 Embargo: 11:30am
- 2. GDP Q1: 2019 Embargoed until 11:30am GDP Q1: 2019
- 3. GDP Q1: 2019 Embargoed until 11:30am -3,2% in Q1: 2019 (quarter-on-quarter) Seasonally adjusted and annualised 0,0% in Q1: 2019 (year-on-year) unadjusted Real GDP Real GDP Growth figures for Q1: 2019
- 4. GDP Q1: 2019 Embargoed until 11:30am The 3,2% fall in Q1: 2019 was largely driven by manufacturing and mining Quarter-on-quarter growth in GDP production Seasonally adjusted and annualised
- 5. GDP Q1: 2019 Embargoed until 11:30am -0,7% -11,4% -7,4% The primary, secondary and tertiary sectors recorded negative growth rates.in Q1: 2019 Sector growth rates Quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted and annualised
- 6. GDP Q1: 2019 Embargoed until 11:30am 0,2 0,2 0,1 -0,8 -0,3 GDP -3,2% LHS: growth rates RHS: contributions -0,1 -1,1 Industry growth rates in Q1: 2019 Quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted and annualised -0,1 -0,5 -0,4
- 7. GDP Q1: 2019 Embargoed until 11:30am Agriculture: Decreased production was reported for field crops and horticultural products Mining: Decreased production was reported for ‘other’ mining and quarrying (including diamonds), iron ore and coal Q/Q growth in Q1: 2019, seasonally adjusted and annualised
- 8. GDP Q1: 2019 Embargoed until 11:30am Manufacturing: The decline was driven largely by petroleum, chemical, and plastic products; motor vehicles, parts and accessories; and wood, paper, publishing and printing Electricity: Negative growth was driven by a fall in the volume of electricity and water distributed Construction: Decreases were reported for residential and non-residential buildings, as well as for construction works activities Q/Q growth in Q1: 2019, seasonally adjusted and annualised
- 9. GDP Q1: 2019 Embargoed until 11:30am Trade: Weaker performance was reported in wholesale, retail and motor trade Transport: Decreased activity was reported for land transport (passenger and freight) Finance: Financial intermediation, real estate activities and business services contributed to growth Government: The rise in government was partly attributed to increasing employment numbers in the civil service Q/Q growth in Q1: 2019, seasonally adjusted and annualised
- 10. GDP Q1: 2019 Embargoed until 11:30am Nominal GDP values for Q1: 2019
- 11. GDP Q1: 2019 Embargoed until 11:30am Agriculture was up by R8 billion to R20 billion Electricity, gas and water was up by R6 billion to R40 billion Mining was down R19 billion to R81 billion Trade was down R24 billion to R160 billion Nominal GDP estimated at R1,20 trillion for Q1: 2019, R56 billion less than in Q4: 2018
- 12. GDP Q1: 2019 Embargoed until 11:30am Which are the largest (and smallest) industries in South Africa? Percentage contribution to total nominal GDP in Q1: 2019 Finance and business services 20% Government 19% Trade 15% Manufacturing 13% Transport 10% Mining 8% Personal services 6% Electricity, gas and water 4% Construction 4% Agri- culture 2% Percentages have been rounded and may not sum to 100%
- 13. GDP Q1: 2019 Embargoed until 11:30am GDP Q3 2016 GDP Q2 2017 GDP Q1: 2019 Expenditure on GDP
- 14. GDP Q1: 2019 Embargoed until 11:30am in Q1: 2019 (quarter-on-quarter) Seasonally adjusted and annualised in Q1: 2019 (year-on-year) Unadjusted Expenditure on GDP Expenditure on GDP Growth figures for Q1: 2019 -3,4% -0,2%
- 15. GDP Q1: 2019 Embargoed until 11:30am A decline in exports and weaker investment and final household consumption expenditure contributed to the decline in Q1: 2019 Quarter-on-quarter growth in expenditure on GDP Seasonally adjusted and annualised
- 16. GDP Q1: 2019 Embargoed until 11:30am 0,3 LHS: growth rates RHS: contributions Change in inventories: -R11,6 billion (contribution: 5,3 percentage points) -0,5 -0,9 1,5 -9,0 Expenditure on GDP -3,4% Component growth rates in Q1: 2019 Quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted and annualised
- 17. GDP Q1: 2019 Embargoed until 11:30am Household final consumption expenditure (HFCE) -0,8% in Q1: 2019 (quarter-on-quarter) Seasonally adjusted and annualised GDP Q3 2016 GDP Q2 2017 GDP Q1: 2019
- 18. GDP Q1: 2019 Embargoed until 11:30am Household consumption expenditure fell by 0,8% in Q1: 2019 in line with decreases in retail sales and motor vehicles sales Quarter-on-quarter growth in HFCE Seasonally adjusted and annualised
- 19. GDP Q1: 2019 Embargoed until 11:30am 0,1 0,3 0,0 0,2 0,0 0,0 0,0 -0,2 -0,8 0,0 -0,1 -0,5 LHS: growth rates RHS: contributions -0,8% HFCE by purpose
- 20. GDP Q1: 2019 Embargoed until 11:30am 0,7 0,1 LHS: growth rates RHS: contributions -0,8% HFCE by durability Quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted and annualised -0,6 -1,1
- 21. GDP Q1: 2019 Embargoed until 11:30am Government final consumption expenditure (GFCE) 1,3% in Q1: 2019 (quarter-on-quarter) Seasonally adjusted and annualised GDP Q3 2016 GDP Q2 2017 GDP Q1: 2019
- 22. GDP Q1: 2019 Embargoed until 11:30am An increase in purchases of goods and services and a rise in civil service employment contributed to the 1,3% rise in Q1: 2019 Quarter-on-quarter growth in GFCE Seasonally adjusted and annualised
- 23. GDP Q1: 2019 Embargoed until 11:30am Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) in Q1: 2019 (quarter-on-quarter) Seasonally adjusted and annualised -4,5% GDP Q3 2016 GDP Q2 2017 GDP Q1: 2019
- 24. GDP Q1: 2019 Embargoed until 11:30am Fixed capital formation fell by 4,5% in Q1: 2019, driven largely by declining investments in transport equipment, construction works and non-residential buildings Quarter-on-quarter growth in GFCF Seasonally adjusted and annualised
- 25. GDP Q1: 2019 Embargoed until 11:30am 2,0 0,0 -1,7 -0,1 -1,4 -2,9 LHS: growth rates RHS: contributions -4,5% GFCF by asset type Quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted and annualised -0,4
- 26. GDP Q1: 2019 Embargoed until 11:30am Change in inventories -R11 587 million in Q1: 2019 (quarter-on-quarter) Seasonally adjusted and annualised GDP Q3 2016 GDP Q2 2017 GDP Q1: 2019
- 27. GDP Q1: 2019 Embargoed until 11:30am In Q1: 2019, there were large inventory drawdowns in mining and quarrying and transport, while inventory build-ups were reported for manufacturing, electricity and trade Change in inventories (R million)
- 28. GDP Q1: 2019 Embargoed until 11:30am in Q1: 2019 (quarter-on-quarter) Seasonally adjusted and annualised in Q1: 2019 (quarter-on-quarter) Seasonally adjusted and annualised Exports Imports -26,4% -4,8% GDP Q3 2016 GDP Q2 2017 GDP Q1: 2019
- 29. GDP Q1: 2019 Embargoed until 11:30am Exports fell by 26,4% in Q1: 2019, largely driven by a decrease in the trade of pearls, precious & semi-precious stones, base metals and articles of base metals, and vehicle and transport equipment. Quarter-on-quarter growth in exports Seasonally adjusted and annualised
- 30. GDP Q1: 2019 Embargoed until 11:30am Imports of goods and services fell by 4,8% in Q1: 2019, driven mostly by a decreased trade in vegetable products, chemical products and mineral products Quarter-on-quarter growth in imports Seasonally adjusted and annualised
- 31. GDP Q1: 2019 Embargoed until 11:30am Recap
- 32. GDP Q1: 2019 Embargoed until 11:30am Quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted and annualised GDP and expenditure on GDP growth rates
- 33. GDP Q1: 2019 Embargoed until 11:30am -3,2% in Q1: 2019 (quarter-on-quarter) Seasonally adjusted and annualised 0% in Q1: 2019 (year-on-year) unadjusted Real GDP Real GDP Growth figures for Q1: 2019
- 34. GDP Q1: 2019 Embargoed until 11:30am Employment and GDP share per industry, Q1: 2019 Employment shares Percentages have been rounded and may not sum to 100% Employment shares: Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS), 1st quarter 2019 Utilities Mining Agriculture Transport Private households Construction Manufacturing Finance Trade Services 0,9% 2,6% 5,1% 6,3% 8,0% 8,2% 10,9% 15,4% 20,5% 21,9% Share of nominal GDP 24,7% 15,0% 20,3% 13,1% 3,9% 9,7% 1,9% 7,6% 3,8%