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Automotive Report
Analysis of New Car Registrations
October 2019
2
Analysis of New Car Registrations in Europe and Italy
* EU + EFTA Countries (Iceland, Norway, Switzerland); ** Δ% October 2019 / October 2018
Executive Summary
◼ Areas: North-East +6,7%, North-West +8,2%, Centre +6,6%, Islands +3,1%, and South
+4,2% in volume in October 2019 compared to October 2018
◼ Customer segments: Retail +2,2%, Fleet +2,7% and Business -13,0% in volume in
October 2019YTD compared to October 2018YTD
◼ Brands: among the Top 15 by volume, high increases for Dacia +43,4%, Lancia / Chrysler
+27,1% andVW +10,0% in October 2019YTD compared to October 2018YTD
◼ Premium brands: among the Top 15 by volume BMW -0,6%, Mercedes-Benz -1,0%, and
Audi +1,1% in volume in October 2019YTD compared to October 2018YTD
◼ Top 3 Countries by growth in new registrations: Romania +58,1%, Lithuania +45,3% and
Ireland +29,1% in volume in October 2019 compared to October 2018
◼ Top 3 Countries by market share: Germany 22,7% (+0,9 p.p.), UK 15,0% (-0,3 p.p.) and
France 13,7% (+0,1 p.p.) in October 2019YTD compared to October 2018YTD
◼ Brands: among the Top 15 by volume, high increases for Seat +10,8%, Dacia +10,7% and
Citroen +6,7% in October 2019YTD compared to October 2018YTD
◼ Premium brands: BMW 0,0%, Mercedes-Benz +3,3% and Audi -1,5% in volume in
October 2019YTD compared to October 2018YTD
Europe*
Italy
+8,6%**
+6,7%**
3
Agenda
1 Europe
1.1 Market Overview
1.2 New Car Registrations by Brand
2 Italy
3 New Car Models Launches in Italy
4 Focus on Registrations Trends and CO2 Emissions in Italy
4
Top 10 European Markets* – October 2019 vs October 2018
Europe – Market Overview
Source: ACEA, Arthur D. Little Analysis, Sweden Transport Analysis Agency
EU New Car Registrations
1.214.989
1.118.939
2019 2018
+8,6%
##
#°
##
Ranking on October 2019 data
New Car Registrations in October 2019
Δ% October 2019 / October 2018
* EU + EFTA Countries (Iceland, Norway, Switzerland)
+6,7
3°
156.851
+14,5
10°
26.103
+17,5
6°
46.895
1°
284.593
+14,6
8°
34.101
+15,8
7°
42.713
-6,7
4°
143.251
+6,3
5°
93.961
+8,7
2°
188.987
9°
29.631
+28,3
+12.7
The number of registered units in October 2019 marked the highest October total
on record since 2009. Nine out of ten Top EU+EFTA markets posted increases as
far as during the same month last year, registrations fell by 7.3% after the WLTP test
came into effect, setting a low base of comparison for 2019. Only in UK new car
registrations dropped by 6.7% from a year earlier to 143.251 units in October 2019,
as economic and political uncertainty continued to impact customers’ confidence
5
-20
20
10
0
-10
On a year-to-date basis, European PC registrations (13,3 million units in total) declined by 0,7% compared to 2018YTD.
The Market Share was stable or has declined for allTop 10 European Markets over the first 10 months of 2019 except
Germany and Poland that demonstrated a restrained but stable growth trend
Top 10 European Markets* – October 2019YTD
Source: ACEA, Arthur D. Little Analysis
Europe – Market Overview
Highlights Market Share
# Country
October
2019
∆ Vs 2018
1 Germany 22,7% 0,9%
2 UK 15,0% -0,3%
3 France 13,7% 0,1%
4 Italy 12,2% 0,0%
5 Spain 7,9% -0,5%
6 Belgium 3,6% -0,1%
7 Poland 3,4% 0,1%
8 Netherlands 2,7% -0,2%
9 Austria 2,1% -0,1%
10 Sweden 2,1% -0,2%
3,4
-2,9
-0,8 -0,3
-6,3
-2,2
-6,2
-5,0
3,3
-9,0
Market Share
∆ % Volume
October 19/18
* EU + EFTA Countries (Iceland, Norway, Switzerland)
20%
New Car Registrations October 2019
YTD
10%
-25
6
Top 15 – October 2019YTD
Europe – New Car Registrations by Brand
Source: ACEA, Arthur D. Little Analysis
∆ M.S.
19/18
-0,01 -0,06 -0,01 -0,03 0,04 -0,04 0,01 0,04 0,03 -0,01 -0,09 0,07 0,12 0,03 0,12
Vol.'19 1.485.726 887.575 818.497 815.479 751.524 728.422 683.655 641.137 633.067 631.519 562.933 550.688 490.436 474.865 434.346 13.330.918
M.S.'19 11,1% 6,7% 6,1% 6,1% 5,6% 5,5% 5,1% 4,8% 4,7% 4,7% 4,2% 4,1% 3,7% 3,6% 3,3%
-1,5
-7,0
-1,7
-3,5
3,3
-4,6
3,6
2,4
-1,5
-10,1
6,7
10,7
1,9
10,8
-0,70,0
∆ %
19/18
Tot.
*
* Opel includes Vauxhall New Car Registrations
7
Agenda
1 Europe
2 Italy
2.1 Market Overview
2.2 Market Highlights
2.3 New Car Registrations by Brand
2.4 New Car Registrations by Group
2.5 New Car Registrations by FuelType
3 New Car Models Launches in Italy
4 Focus on Registrations Trends and CO2 Emissions in Italy
8
Italian Market –Variation of New Car Registrations 2019 vs 2018
Italy – Market Overview
Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis ∆'18/'17 ∆'19/'18
For the second time after 4 month of downturns, Italian market turns to register positive sign of new car registration (+6.7% or
156.851 cars vs. 147.039 in October 2018).This apparent recovery increase is attributable to the comparison with the same
month of last year, which was affected by the introduction of the new WLTP regulations from 1st of October 2018.The first ten
months of the year reduced the overall decline of Italian market to -0.8% with 1.624.922 registrations compared to 1.638.784 in
January-October 2018.The retail and fleet distribution channel had a positive trend (+2.2% and +2.7% respectively), while
uncertainty of the business segment remains (-13,0%), probably also due to the recent proposal of the Government related to an
important increase of taxes on company cars. Sales of diesel cars maintained a double-digit decline (-13,3% or 8.656 units), while
petrol cars grew (+17.6% or 10.853 units). Hybrid cars reached 12.500 in October (+42.1% or 3.712 units).The growth trend for
electric cars was good (+59,4% or 350 units).
October 2019
June AugustJanuary February NovemberJulyMarch April
-2,4%
May
-1,4%
September
-25,4%
October December
-0,1%
3,4% 1,5%
-7,5% -5,8% -7,3%-9,6%
-1,2%
6,5%
2,0%
-2,8% -2,1%
4,4%
9,5%
-3,1%
13,4%
-7,4% -6,3%
6,7%
9
37,0
33,7
11,2
9,4
9,2
5,4
1,6
0,8
-4,7
-26,1
Italian Market – October 2019 vs October 2018
Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis
Italy – Market Overview
2015
2014
Δ% October 2019 / October 2018
156.851
147.039
+6,7%
2018
2019
+8,2
North-West
50.245
+3,1
Islands
8.817
+6,7
North-East
45.533
+6,6
Centre
35.083
+4,2
South
17.173
##
aa
##
Region
New Car Registrations in October 2019
Δ% October 2019 / October 2018
Growth of theTop 10
brands by volumes
6
10
Diesel
40,7%
Petrol
43,8%
LPG
7,2%
CNG* 1,9%
EV*
6,3%
Other
15,5%
Italian Market – October 2019YTD vs October 2018YTD
Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis
Italy – Market Highlights
Analysis by “Customer Segment” Analysis by “FuelType”
Analysis by “Geographical Area” Analysis by “Car Segment”
932.707
397.028
295.187
912.948
386.706
339.130
Retail Fleet Business
2018
2,2% 2,7% -13,0%∆'19/'18
496.885
541.794
334.022
166.460
85.762
506.416
541.821
334.969
170.045
85.534
IslandsCentreNorth-West North-East South
271.854
1.624.922
606.204
517.060
195.213 29.777 4.814
FA EB C D Total
8,4% 0,7% -4,9% -6,1% 0,7% -0,6%-1,9% 0,0% -0,3% -2,1% 0,3%
2019
2018
∆'19/'18 ∆'19/'18
2019
2018
-23,0
+33,9
-8,5
+10,1
+26,6
∆% Volume October 2019 / October 2018
(YTD)* CNG: Compressed Natural Gas (Methane and Ethanol); EV: Electric Vehicle (Hybrid and Electric)
1.624.922 1.638.784
2018
2019
-0,8
11
New Car Registrations by Brand – October 2019YTD (1/3)
Italy – New Car Registrations by Brand
Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis
244.799
151.831
103.158 95.833 94.410 87.691 76.804 74.862 71.510 69.818 54.085 51.156 50.508 48.824 41.531
-13,4
10,0
-8,6 -11,4
2,0 6,5 2,3 4,5
43,4
-1,4
1,1
-1,0
27,1
-0,6
-8,4
Volume
∆Volume
19/18 %
∆ M.S.
19/18 %
Market
Share %
-2,17 0,92 -0,53 -0,70 0,16 0,38 0,15 0,24 1,36 -0,02 0,07 0,00 0,69 0,00 -0,21
15,07 9,34 6,35 5,90 5,81 5,40 4,73 4,61 4,40 4,30 3,33 3,15 3,11 3,00 2,56
12
New Car Registrations by Brand – October 2019YTD (2/3)
Italy – New Car Registrations by Brand
Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis
40.281 37.467
31.784
22.727 22.645 22.115 21.821
18.257 17.532
14.222
10.363
7.344 7.158 6.691 5.696
-3,4
-22,5
16,4
5,2
30,4
2,5
-44,5
5,1 12,9
-4,7
11,9
-3,5 -8,5
41,2
20,1
Volume
∆Volume
19/18 %
∆ M.S.
19/18 %
Market
Share %
-0,06 -0,64 0,29 0,08 0,33 0,04 -1,06 0,06 0,13 -0,03 0,07 -0,01 -0,04 0,12 0,06
2,48 2,31 1,96 1,40 1,39 1,36 1,34 1,12 1,08 0,88 0,64 0,45 0,44 0,41 0,35
13
New Car Registrations by Brand – October 2019YTD (3/3)
Italy – New Car Registrations by Brand
Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis
4.705
3.509 3.453
2.093 2.049 1.950 1.804
848
460 285 238 66 49 37 36
51,4 56,8
-26,5 -2,4 -25,1
21,7 25,3
53,2
-54,2
113,0
-30,2 -12,2
201,3
417,2
Volume
∆Volume
19/18 %
∆ M.S.
19/18 %
Market
Share %
0,10 0,08 0,14 -0,04 0,00 0,10 -0,01 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00
0,29 0,22 0,21 0,13 0,13 0,12 0,11 0,05 0,03 0,02 0,01 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00
14
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
New Car Registrations by Group – Top 15 – October 2019YTD
Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis
Italy – New Car Registrations by Group
24,0
16,0
15,5
10,3
6,4
5,0
5,0
4,5
4,1
2,3
2,0
1,3
1,1
0,6
0,5
Top 5: 72,1%
Top 10: 93,1%
-10,6%
4,7%
0,0%
-6,0%
9,1%
4,2%
5,9%
-8,6%
16,4%
0,9%
-22,9%
12,9%
-6,0%
11,9%
-3,5%
389.210
260.472
251.573
167.343
103.158
81.812
81.509
73.271
67.081
37.705
31.784
21.380
17.532
10.363
7.344
FCA
PSA
Volkswagen
Renault
Ford
Hyundai Kia
Toyota
Daimler
BMW
Nissan
Suzuki
JLR
Volvo
Mazda
Honda
Market Share
(%)
DeltaVolume
'19 vs '18
VolumeGroup Brand
15
New Car Registrations by Fuel Type –Top 10 – Petrol and Diesel
Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis
Italy – New Car Registrations by FuelType








































DieselPetrol
October 2019 2019YTD
 Ranking variation compared to previous period
8.896
2.991
2.606
2.581
2.529
2.462
2.203
2.143
2.039
1.665
92.828
33.902
26.585
26.122
19.980
19.797
19.784
18.378
18.015
16.690
2.162
2.162
2.146
2.051
1.820
1.791
1.659
1.426
1.103
1.094
3008
QASHQAI
COMPASS
500X
RENEGADE
TIGUAN
T-ROC
DUSTER
CLASSE A
500L
PANDA
YPSILON
500
C3
KARL
208
POLO
T-ROC
ECOSPORT
FIESTA
COMPASS
RENEGADE
500X
QASHQAI
CLIO
TIGUAN
3008
500L
T-ROC
TIPO
PANDA
YPSILON
C3
T-CROSS
500
CAPTUR
208
POLO
ECOSPORT
AYGO
26.032
25.367
22.246
18.856
17.783
17.648
17.171
16.794
16.669
15.864
16
1.786
1.701
1.453
1.044
633
588
561
522
454
319
New Car Registrations by Fuel Type –Top 10 – LPG and CNG
Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis




















CNGLPG
October 2019 2019YTD




















Italy – New Car Registrations by FuelType
 Ranking variation compared to previous period
4.747
4.108
4.048
2.879
2.746
2.249
1.646
1.339
1.260
1.179
1.357
678
579
452
373
313
164
162
101
95
YPSILON
PANDA
DUSTER
CORSA
FIESTA
STONIC
TWINGO
PICANTO
500
IX20
PANDA
DUSTER
YPSILON
SANDERO
CORSA
CLIO
500
STONIC
PICANTO
MOKKA
UP!
PANDA
GOLF
ARONA
POLO
OCTAVIA
IBIZA
ASTRA
QUBO
A3
GOLF
ARONA
UP!
POLO
OCTAVIA
PANDA
IBIZA
QUBO
CADDY
ASTRA
18.143
17.983
15.375
11.486
10.449
5.346
4.289
4.061
3.925
3.820
17
2.506
1.236
909
808
710
695
463
436
405
399
New Car Registrations by Fuel Type –Top 10 – Hybrid and Pure Electric
Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis
(*) Mild Hybrid Electric Vehicle (MHEV), Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV), Full Hybrid; (**) Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV)




















PureElectric(**)Hybrid(*)
October 2019 2019YTD




















Italy – New Car Registrations by FuelType
 Ranking variation compared to previous period
407
96
89
85
55
54
49
37
24
12
YARIS
C-HR
COROLLA
RAV4
IGNIS
EVOQUE
NIRO
A6
CX-30
SWIFT
YARIS
C-HR
RAV4
COROLLA
SWIFT
EVOQUE
A6
NIRO
IGNIS
UX
ZOE
FORTWO
MODEL 3
LEAF
FORFOUR
I3
KONA
MODEL S
I-PACE
MODEL X
FORTWO
LEAF
ZOE
FORFOUR
KONA
MODEL 3
I3
I-PACE
GOLF
C-ZERO
21.005
13.391
8.807
7.204
3.992
3.732
3.727
3.722
3.684
2.446
1.887
1.693
1.545
1.143
531
412
371
214
202
191
18
New Car Registrations of Hybrid vs Pure ElectricVehicles
Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis
Italy – Focus on ElectricVehicles Market in Italy
32.622
56.332
76.962
103.068
20192016 20182017
EV Registrations Trend
Volume, DeltaYoY, EV Market Share October '19YTD
Hybrid and Pure ElectricVehicles Trend
Volume October '19YTD
Delta
YoY
45,4% 72,7% 36,6% 33,9%
M.S. 2,1% 3,3% 4,7% 6,3%
CAGR
97,1%
94,6%
3,3%
96,7%
2,9%
2016 2017
5,4%
2018 2019
8,4%
91,6%
Electric Hybrid
+99,3%
+44,2%
19
Overview of New Car Registrations by Segment
Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis
Italy – New Car Registrations by Segment
Segments Growth in Market Share* Market Share andVolume**
+8,4%
D
«Executive»
+0,7%
B
«Supermini»
-0,6%
E
«Luxury»
-4,9%
C
«Medium»
+0,7%
F
«Ultra Luxury»
C
16,7%
1.624.922
A
37,3%B
31,8%
12,0%D
1,8%E
0,3%F
100,0%Tot.
271.854
606.204
517.060
195.213
29.777
4.814
A
«Utility/City»
* Δ% October 2019 YTD / October 2018 YTD; ** Market Share and Volume October 2019 YTD
-6,1%
20
Segment A and Segment B –Top 10 – Septamber 2019YTD
Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis
Italy – New Car Registrations by Segment
A
“Utility/City”
B
“Supermini”
116.965
31.444
20.048 14.893 14.833 13.297 10.779 9.190 7.651 7.426
I10PANDA 500 FORTWOKARL UP! AYGO PICANTO IGNIS TWINGO
50.510
36.734 36.120 35.047
31.950 30.520 29.911 27.780 26.421 26.150
T-ROCYPSILON 208CLIO SANDERO POLOC3 YARIS FIESTA 500L
∆ Vol. %
19/18 YTD
∆ Vol. %
19/18 YTD
Segment A and B are the segments have
registered an increase in market shares (+1,4 p.p.
and +0,6 p.p. vs October 2018YTD).And again
Segment A is the only segment able to show a
relevant positive sign on their growth in
October19YTD (+8,4% vs October18YTD)
15,4% -12,2% 25,5% 4,9% 4,5% 14,9% 20,4% -6,3% -1,2% -3,0%
27,1% -17,6% 0,2% 72,8% -4,8% 30,5% -15,6% -3,3% -25,7% -17,2%
21
Segment C and Segment D –Top 10 – October 2019YTD
Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis
Italy – New Car Registrations by Segment
C
“Medium”
D
“Executive”
36.607 36.362 36.202
30.431
26.487
23.832 22.727 22.454 20.832
15.907
500XRENEGADE DUSTER GOLFCOMPASS ECOSPORT TIPO QASHQAI 3008 CLASSE A
20.759
13.653
10.028 9.882 9.818
8.822
6.620 6.480 6.141 5.996
RAV4TIGUAN KUGA X1STELVIO OCTAVIAGLAQ3 A4 EVOQUE
∆ Vol. %
19/18 YTD
∆ Vol. %
19/18 YTD
4,9% -16,8% 61,1% -7,5% 8,0% -22,1% -38,7% -13,3% -0,6% 35,4%
-19,5% -9,4% -12,4% 42,0% -4,7% 34,9% -6,9% -9,1% -21,7% 5,7%
Medium and Executive Segments are still the worst
performers registering another drop (respectively -
4,9% and -6,1% compared to October 2018).As a
result, their market share decreased respectively by -
1,4 p.p. and -0,7 p.p. on aYTD basis
22
Segment E and Segment F –Top 10 – October 2019YTD
Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis
Italy – New Car Registrations by Segment
E
“Luxury”
F
“Ultra Luxury”
973
582
408
266 265 223 214 211 191 190
911 GHIBLI MODEL SSERIE 7GTPANAMERA CLASSE S SERIE 8 MODEL X A8
∆ Vol. %
19/18 YTD
∆ Vol. %
19/18 YTD
28,0% -24,6% -23,0% 3,8% 418,5% 38,9% -25,6% -0,8% 11,5% 223,0%
1,8% -27,3% -21,5% 146,3% -13,4% -33,8% -0,9% 904,8% 18,6% -8,7%
3.738
3.335
3.000
2.547
1.908 1.825
1.619
1.134 1.129 1.108
XC90A6 SPORT F-PACECLASSE ESERIE 5 Q8 X5 CAYENNE TOUAREG
After collapse in March, Segment E and Segment F
remained almost stable between April and October
2019. In fact, compared to the same period in 2018
Segment E has increased slightly its sales (196 units
more sold or +0,7% vs. Sep 2018). On aYTD basis,
both segments are stable in terms of market shares
(respectively 0,0% and 0,0%)
23
Agenda
1 Europe
2 Italy
3 New Car Models Launches in Italy
4 Focus on Registrations Trends and CO2 Emissions in Italy
24
New Models Launch per Brand – Roadmap 2019 (1/5)
Source: Quattroruote; Arthur D. Little Analysis
New Car Models Launches in Italy
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
A
B
C
D
F
Commercial Launch of New Model
Facelift / Technical Update
Premiere
Launch Concluded
Launch Postponed
Launch Anticipated
(P)
Q3
R8
e-tron 4
Z4
C5 Aircross
DS3 Crossback
1) 3 Series
2) X7 7 Series
A4 Q5 plug-in
1) 8 Gran Coupè
2) X1
Serie 3
Touring
F8 Tributo
25
New Models Launch per Brand – Roadmap 2019 (2/5)
Source: Quattroruote; Arthur D. Little Analysis
New Car Models Launches in Italy
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
F
G
H
I
J
K
Commercial Launch of New Model
Facelift / Technical Update
Premiere
Launch Concluded
Launch Postponed
Launch Anticipated
(P)
Edge
QX50
ProCeed
Mondeo
Soul
Focus ST Puma
Ionic
XCeed
26
New Models Launch per Brand – Roadmap 2019 (3/5)
Source: Quattroruote; Arthur D. Little Analysis
New Car Models Launches in Italy
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
L
M
Commercial Launch of New Model
Facelift / Technical Update
Premiere
Launch Concluded
Launch Postponed
Launch Anticipated
(P)
Range Rover
Evoque Defender
1) ES hybrid
2) UX
RC
hybrid
RX
Mazda 3
A Class
Sedan
B Class
GLE CLA GLC
Mazda CX-30
CLA
Shooting
break
GLBEQC
27
Source: Quattroruote; Arthur D. Little Analysis
Commercial Launch of New Model
Facelift / Technical Update
Premiere
Launch Concluded
Launch Postponed
Launch Anticipated
New Models Launch per Brand – Roadmap 2019 (4/5)
New Car Models Launches in Italy
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
M
N
O
P
R
S
(P)
508 SW 208
(P)
400Z
(P)
Macan
508 PHEV
3008 PHEV
911
Kadjar Clio
(P)
Tarraco
Scala
(P)
Kodiaq RS Kamiq
Twingo
(P)
Clio
Scala
Kamiq
(P)
Juke
Corsa
Superb
28
Commercial Launch of New Model
Facelift / Technical Update
Premiere
Launch Concluded
Launch Postponed
Launch Anticipated
New Models Launch per Brand – Roadmap 2019 (5/5)
Source: Quattroruote; Arthur D. Little Analysis
New Car Models Launches in Italy
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
S
T
V
(P)
Model 3
Supra
T-Cross Golf 8
1) Corolla
2) RAV4 Prius
Forester
Levorg
Passat
S 60
Korando
29
Agenda
1 Europe
2 Italy
3 New Car Models Launches in Italy
4 Focus on Registrations Trends and CO2 Emissions in Italy
30
4%
-1% -4% -5%
6%
-38%
-27% -26%
-19%
-31%
-23% -25% -23% -20% -22%
-27%
-34%
-14% -13%
0%
-5% -4%
16%
3% 4%
11%
23%
27% 28% 29%
10%
33%
23%
35%
45%
31%
18%
12%
9% 6%
35%
16% 13%
28% 27%
-13%
-3% -6%
3% 2%
6%
15%
9% 6%
14%
19%
59%
37%
122
120
May
2018
Jan
2018
June
2018
Mar
2018
40%
July
2018
Aug
2018
Sept
2018
Oct
2018
Nov
2018
Dec
2018
Jan
2019
Feb
2019
Mar
2019
-6%
Jun
2019
Jul
2019
Aug
2019
Sep
2019
Oct
2019
Apr
2018
110
May
2019
-9% -10%
8%
0%
27%
-17%
119
117
Feb
2018
Apr
2019
+11%
Introduction of WLTP2 and promotions preceding it, seem to have more
relevant effect on CO2 emissions than the introduction of the Eco-bonus
Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis
Note: (*) In order to factor in seasonality, growth has been calculated using monthly units compared to the same month in the previous year (e.g. April 2019 uts on April 2018 uts)
(**) Weighted average of CO2 emissions (g/km) of the monthly sales composition in Italy
(***) Worldwide Harmonized Light Vehicles
Italy – Focus on RegistrationsTrends and CO2 Emissions
Registrations and CO2 Emissions Trend
Registrations Growth* and CO2 Emissions (CO2e g/km)**
◼ Since the Eco-bonus was introduced, CO2 emissions level grew (119,3 g/km in March 2019 vs 119,7 g/km in July 2019). This might be explained by the “late
effect” of car orders placed before the entry into force of the Eco-tax and by the effect of “waiting" of WLTP introduction which came into force on 1 September 2019.
◼ The recent proposal of the Government to introduce in the fiscal Year 2020 an important increase of taxes on company cars for all employees might
have a possible negative effect over the last months of 2019
Petrol
Diesel
Alternative Introduction of WLTP***
Sales Approval
Government approves
introduction of Eco-tax / Eco-
bonus in March 2019
Official introduction of
Eco-tax / Eco-bonus
CO2 (g/km)
Introduction of
WLTP***+ISC+EVAP
Sales Approval
Uncertainty causing high volatility Promotions preceding
WLTP2 introduction
Arthur D. Little has been at the forefront of innovation since 1886.
We are an acknowledged thought leader in linking strategy, innovation
and transformation in technology-intensive and converging industries.
We navigate our clients through changing business ecosystems to
uncover new growth opportunities.We enable our clients to build
innovation capabilities and transform their organizations.
Our consultants have strong practical industry experience combined
with excellent knowledge of key trends and dynamics.Arthur D. Little is
present in the most important business centers around the world.
We are proud to serve most of the Fortune 1.000 companies,in
addition to other leading firms and public sector organizations.
For further information please visit www.adlittle.com.
Copyright © Arthur D. Little 2019.All rights reserved.
Contacts:
Fabrizio Arena
Partner
Tel.: +39 06 68 882 344
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e-mail: arena.fabrizio@adlittle.com
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Arthur D. Little Automotive Report October 2019

  • 1. Automotive Report Analysis of New Car Registrations October 2019
  • 2. 2 Analysis of New Car Registrations in Europe and Italy * EU + EFTA Countries (Iceland, Norway, Switzerland); ** Δ% October 2019 / October 2018 Executive Summary ◼ Areas: North-East +6,7%, North-West +8,2%, Centre +6,6%, Islands +3,1%, and South +4,2% in volume in October 2019 compared to October 2018 ◼ Customer segments: Retail +2,2%, Fleet +2,7% and Business -13,0% in volume in October 2019YTD compared to October 2018YTD ◼ Brands: among the Top 15 by volume, high increases for Dacia +43,4%, Lancia / Chrysler +27,1% andVW +10,0% in October 2019YTD compared to October 2018YTD ◼ Premium brands: among the Top 15 by volume BMW -0,6%, Mercedes-Benz -1,0%, and Audi +1,1% in volume in October 2019YTD compared to October 2018YTD ◼ Top 3 Countries by growth in new registrations: Romania +58,1%, Lithuania +45,3% and Ireland +29,1% in volume in October 2019 compared to October 2018 ◼ Top 3 Countries by market share: Germany 22,7% (+0,9 p.p.), UK 15,0% (-0,3 p.p.) and France 13,7% (+0,1 p.p.) in October 2019YTD compared to October 2018YTD ◼ Brands: among the Top 15 by volume, high increases for Seat +10,8%, Dacia +10,7% and Citroen +6,7% in October 2019YTD compared to October 2018YTD ◼ Premium brands: BMW 0,0%, Mercedes-Benz +3,3% and Audi -1,5% in volume in October 2019YTD compared to October 2018YTD Europe* Italy +8,6%** +6,7%**
  • 3. 3 Agenda 1 Europe 1.1 Market Overview 1.2 New Car Registrations by Brand 2 Italy 3 New Car Models Launches in Italy 4 Focus on Registrations Trends and CO2 Emissions in Italy
  • 4. 4 Top 10 European Markets* – October 2019 vs October 2018 Europe – Market Overview Source: ACEA, Arthur D. Little Analysis, Sweden Transport Analysis Agency EU New Car Registrations 1.214.989 1.118.939 2019 2018 +8,6% ## #° ## Ranking on October 2019 data New Car Registrations in October 2019 Δ% October 2019 / October 2018 * EU + EFTA Countries (Iceland, Norway, Switzerland) +6,7 3° 156.851 +14,5 10° 26.103 +17,5 6° 46.895 1° 284.593 +14,6 8° 34.101 +15,8 7° 42.713 -6,7 4° 143.251 +6,3 5° 93.961 +8,7 2° 188.987 9° 29.631 +28,3 +12.7 The number of registered units in October 2019 marked the highest October total on record since 2009. Nine out of ten Top EU+EFTA markets posted increases as far as during the same month last year, registrations fell by 7.3% after the WLTP test came into effect, setting a low base of comparison for 2019. Only in UK new car registrations dropped by 6.7% from a year earlier to 143.251 units in October 2019, as economic and political uncertainty continued to impact customers’ confidence
  • 5. 5 -20 20 10 0 -10 On a year-to-date basis, European PC registrations (13,3 million units in total) declined by 0,7% compared to 2018YTD. The Market Share was stable or has declined for allTop 10 European Markets over the first 10 months of 2019 except Germany and Poland that demonstrated a restrained but stable growth trend Top 10 European Markets* – October 2019YTD Source: ACEA, Arthur D. Little Analysis Europe – Market Overview Highlights Market Share # Country October 2019 ∆ Vs 2018 1 Germany 22,7% 0,9% 2 UK 15,0% -0,3% 3 France 13,7% 0,1% 4 Italy 12,2% 0,0% 5 Spain 7,9% -0,5% 6 Belgium 3,6% -0,1% 7 Poland 3,4% 0,1% 8 Netherlands 2,7% -0,2% 9 Austria 2,1% -0,1% 10 Sweden 2,1% -0,2% 3,4 -2,9 -0,8 -0,3 -6,3 -2,2 -6,2 -5,0 3,3 -9,0 Market Share ∆ % Volume October 19/18 * EU + EFTA Countries (Iceland, Norway, Switzerland) 20% New Car Registrations October 2019 YTD 10% -25
  • 6. 6 Top 15 – October 2019YTD Europe – New Car Registrations by Brand Source: ACEA, Arthur D. Little Analysis ∆ M.S. 19/18 -0,01 -0,06 -0,01 -0,03 0,04 -0,04 0,01 0,04 0,03 -0,01 -0,09 0,07 0,12 0,03 0,12 Vol.'19 1.485.726 887.575 818.497 815.479 751.524 728.422 683.655 641.137 633.067 631.519 562.933 550.688 490.436 474.865 434.346 13.330.918 M.S.'19 11,1% 6,7% 6,1% 6,1% 5,6% 5,5% 5,1% 4,8% 4,7% 4,7% 4,2% 4,1% 3,7% 3,6% 3,3% -1,5 -7,0 -1,7 -3,5 3,3 -4,6 3,6 2,4 -1,5 -10,1 6,7 10,7 1,9 10,8 -0,70,0 ∆ % 19/18 Tot. * * Opel includes Vauxhall New Car Registrations
  • 7. 7 Agenda 1 Europe 2 Italy 2.1 Market Overview 2.2 Market Highlights 2.3 New Car Registrations by Brand 2.4 New Car Registrations by Group 2.5 New Car Registrations by FuelType 3 New Car Models Launches in Italy 4 Focus on Registrations Trends and CO2 Emissions in Italy
  • 8. 8 Italian Market –Variation of New Car Registrations 2019 vs 2018 Italy – Market Overview Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis ∆'18/'17 ∆'19/'18 For the second time after 4 month of downturns, Italian market turns to register positive sign of new car registration (+6.7% or 156.851 cars vs. 147.039 in October 2018).This apparent recovery increase is attributable to the comparison with the same month of last year, which was affected by the introduction of the new WLTP regulations from 1st of October 2018.The first ten months of the year reduced the overall decline of Italian market to -0.8% with 1.624.922 registrations compared to 1.638.784 in January-October 2018.The retail and fleet distribution channel had a positive trend (+2.2% and +2.7% respectively), while uncertainty of the business segment remains (-13,0%), probably also due to the recent proposal of the Government related to an important increase of taxes on company cars. Sales of diesel cars maintained a double-digit decline (-13,3% or 8.656 units), while petrol cars grew (+17.6% or 10.853 units). Hybrid cars reached 12.500 in October (+42.1% or 3.712 units).The growth trend for electric cars was good (+59,4% or 350 units). October 2019 June AugustJanuary February NovemberJulyMarch April -2,4% May -1,4% September -25,4% October December -0,1% 3,4% 1,5% -7,5% -5,8% -7,3%-9,6% -1,2% 6,5% 2,0% -2,8% -2,1% 4,4% 9,5% -3,1% 13,4% -7,4% -6,3% 6,7%
  • 9. 9 37,0 33,7 11,2 9,4 9,2 5,4 1,6 0,8 -4,7 -26,1 Italian Market – October 2019 vs October 2018 Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis Italy – Market Overview 2015 2014 Δ% October 2019 / October 2018 156.851 147.039 +6,7% 2018 2019 +8,2 North-West 50.245 +3,1 Islands 8.817 +6,7 North-East 45.533 +6,6 Centre 35.083 +4,2 South 17.173 ## aa ## Region New Car Registrations in October 2019 Δ% October 2019 / October 2018 Growth of theTop 10 brands by volumes 6
  • 10. 10 Diesel 40,7% Petrol 43,8% LPG 7,2% CNG* 1,9% EV* 6,3% Other 15,5% Italian Market – October 2019YTD vs October 2018YTD Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis Italy – Market Highlights Analysis by “Customer Segment” Analysis by “FuelType” Analysis by “Geographical Area” Analysis by “Car Segment” 932.707 397.028 295.187 912.948 386.706 339.130 Retail Fleet Business 2018 2,2% 2,7% -13,0%∆'19/'18 496.885 541.794 334.022 166.460 85.762 506.416 541.821 334.969 170.045 85.534 IslandsCentreNorth-West North-East South 271.854 1.624.922 606.204 517.060 195.213 29.777 4.814 FA EB C D Total 8,4% 0,7% -4,9% -6,1% 0,7% -0,6%-1,9% 0,0% -0,3% -2,1% 0,3% 2019 2018 ∆'19/'18 ∆'19/'18 2019 2018 -23,0 +33,9 -8,5 +10,1 +26,6 ∆% Volume October 2019 / October 2018 (YTD)* CNG: Compressed Natural Gas (Methane and Ethanol); EV: Electric Vehicle (Hybrid and Electric) 1.624.922 1.638.784 2018 2019 -0,8
  • 11. 11 New Car Registrations by Brand – October 2019YTD (1/3) Italy – New Car Registrations by Brand Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis 244.799 151.831 103.158 95.833 94.410 87.691 76.804 74.862 71.510 69.818 54.085 51.156 50.508 48.824 41.531 -13,4 10,0 -8,6 -11,4 2,0 6,5 2,3 4,5 43,4 -1,4 1,1 -1,0 27,1 -0,6 -8,4 Volume ∆Volume 19/18 % ∆ M.S. 19/18 % Market Share % -2,17 0,92 -0,53 -0,70 0,16 0,38 0,15 0,24 1,36 -0,02 0,07 0,00 0,69 0,00 -0,21 15,07 9,34 6,35 5,90 5,81 5,40 4,73 4,61 4,40 4,30 3,33 3,15 3,11 3,00 2,56
  • 12. 12 New Car Registrations by Brand – October 2019YTD (2/3) Italy – New Car Registrations by Brand Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis 40.281 37.467 31.784 22.727 22.645 22.115 21.821 18.257 17.532 14.222 10.363 7.344 7.158 6.691 5.696 -3,4 -22,5 16,4 5,2 30,4 2,5 -44,5 5,1 12,9 -4,7 11,9 -3,5 -8,5 41,2 20,1 Volume ∆Volume 19/18 % ∆ M.S. 19/18 % Market Share % -0,06 -0,64 0,29 0,08 0,33 0,04 -1,06 0,06 0,13 -0,03 0,07 -0,01 -0,04 0,12 0,06 2,48 2,31 1,96 1,40 1,39 1,36 1,34 1,12 1,08 0,88 0,64 0,45 0,44 0,41 0,35
  • 13. 13 New Car Registrations by Brand – October 2019YTD (3/3) Italy – New Car Registrations by Brand Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis 4.705 3.509 3.453 2.093 2.049 1.950 1.804 848 460 285 238 66 49 37 36 51,4 56,8 -26,5 -2,4 -25,1 21,7 25,3 53,2 -54,2 113,0 -30,2 -12,2 201,3 417,2 Volume ∆Volume 19/18 % ∆ M.S. 19/18 % Market Share % 0,10 0,08 0,14 -0,04 0,00 0,10 -0,01 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,29 0,22 0,21 0,13 0,13 0,12 0,11 0,05 0,03 0,02 0,01 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00
  • 14. 14 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 New Car Registrations by Group – Top 15 – October 2019YTD Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis Italy – New Car Registrations by Group 24,0 16,0 15,5 10,3 6,4 5,0 5,0 4,5 4,1 2,3 2,0 1,3 1,1 0,6 0,5 Top 5: 72,1% Top 10: 93,1% -10,6% 4,7% 0,0% -6,0% 9,1% 4,2% 5,9% -8,6% 16,4% 0,9% -22,9% 12,9% -6,0% 11,9% -3,5% 389.210 260.472 251.573 167.343 103.158 81.812 81.509 73.271 67.081 37.705 31.784 21.380 17.532 10.363 7.344 FCA PSA Volkswagen Renault Ford Hyundai Kia Toyota Daimler BMW Nissan Suzuki JLR Volvo Mazda Honda Market Share (%) DeltaVolume '19 vs '18 VolumeGroup Brand
  • 15. 15 New Car Registrations by Fuel Type –Top 10 – Petrol and Diesel Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis Italy – New Car Registrations by FuelType                                         DieselPetrol October 2019 2019YTD  Ranking variation compared to previous period 8.896 2.991 2.606 2.581 2.529 2.462 2.203 2.143 2.039 1.665 92.828 33.902 26.585 26.122 19.980 19.797 19.784 18.378 18.015 16.690 2.162 2.162 2.146 2.051 1.820 1.791 1.659 1.426 1.103 1.094 3008 QASHQAI COMPASS 500X RENEGADE TIGUAN T-ROC DUSTER CLASSE A 500L PANDA YPSILON 500 C3 KARL 208 POLO T-ROC ECOSPORT FIESTA COMPASS RENEGADE 500X QASHQAI CLIO TIGUAN 3008 500L T-ROC TIPO PANDA YPSILON C3 T-CROSS 500 CAPTUR 208 POLO ECOSPORT AYGO 26.032 25.367 22.246 18.856 17.783 17.648 17.171 16.794 16.669 15.864
  • 16. 16 1.786 1.701 1.453 1.044 633 588 561 522 454 319 New Car Registrations by Fuel Type –Top 10 – LPG and CNG Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis                     CNGLPG October 2019 2019YTD                     Italy – New Car Registrations by FuelType  Ranking variation compared to previous period 4.747 4.108 4.048 2.879 2.746 2.249 1.646 1.339 1.260 1.179 1.357 678 579 452 373 313 164 162 101 95 YPSILON PANDA DUSTER CORSA FIESTA STONIC TWINGO PICANTO 500 IX20 PANDA DUSTER YPSILON SANDERO CORSA CLIO 500 STONIC PICANTO MOKKA UP! PANDA GOLF ARONA POLO OCTAVIA IBIZA ASTRA QUBO A3 GOLF ARONA UP! POLO OCTAVIA PANDA IBIZA QUBO CADDY ASTRA 18.143 17.983 15.375 11.486 10.449 5.346 4.289 4.061 3.925 3.820
  • 17. 17 2.506 1.236 909 808 710 695 463 436 405 399 New Car Registrations by Fuel Type –Top 10 – Hybrid and Pure Electric Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis (*) Mild Hybrid Electric Vehicle (MHEV), Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV), Full Hybrid; (**) Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV)                     PureElectric(**)Hybrid(*) October 2019 2019YTD                     Italy – New Car Registrations by FuelType  Ranking variation compared to previous period 407 96 89 85 55 54 49 37 24 12 YARIS C-HR COROLLA RAV4 IGNIS EVOQUE NIRO A6 CX-30 SWIFT YARIS C-HR RAV4 COROLLA SWIFT EVOQUE A6 NIRO IGNIS UX ZOE FORTWO MODEL 3 LEAF FORFOUR I3 KONA MODEL S I-PACE MODEL X FORTWO LEAF ZOE FORFOUR KONA MODEL 3 I3 I-PACE GOLF C-ZERO 21.005 13.391 8.807 7.204 3.992 3.732 3.727 3.722 3.684 2.446 1.887 1.693 1.545 1.143 531 412 371 214 202 191
  • 18. 18 New Car Registrations of Hybrid vs Pure ElectricVehicles Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis Italy – Focus on ElectricVehicles Market in Italy 32.622 56.332 76.962 103.068 20192016 20182017 EV Registrations Trend Volume, DeltaYoY, EV Market Share October '19YTD Hybrid and Pure ElectricVehicles Trend Volume October '19YTD Delta YoY 45,4% 72,7% 36,6% 33,9% M.S. 2,1% 3,3% 4,7% 6,3% CAGR 97,1% 94,6% 3,3% 96,7% 2,9% 2016 2017 5,4% 2018 2019 8,4% 91,6% Electric Hybrid +99,3% +44,2%
  • 19. 19 Overview of New Car Registrations by Segment Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis Italy – New Car Registrations by Segment Segments Growth in Market Share* Market Share andVolume** +8,4% D «Executive» +0,7% B «Supermini» -0,6% E «Luxury» -4,9% C «Medium» +0,7% F «Ultra Luxury» C 16,7% 1.624.922 A 37,3%B 31,8% 12,0%D 1,8%E 0,3%F 100,0%Tot. 271.854 606.204 517.060 195.213 29.777 4.814 A «Utility/City» * Δ% October 2019 YTD / October 2018 YTD; ** Market Share and Volume October 2019 YTD -6,1%
  • 20. 20 Segment A and Segment B –Top 10 – Septamber 2019YTD Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis Italy – New Car Registrations by Segment A “Utility/City” B “Supermini” 116.965 31.444 20.048 14.893 14.833 13.297 10.779 9.190 7.651 7.426 I10PANDA 500 FORTWOKARL UP! AYGO PICANTO IGNIS TWINGO 50.510 36.734 36.120 35.047 31.950 30.520 29.911 27.780 26.421 26.150 T-ROCYPSILON 208CLIO SANDERO POLOC3 YARIS FIESTA 500L ∆ Vol. % 19/18 YTD ∆ Vol. % 19/18 YTD Segment A and B are the segments have registered an increase in market shares (+1,4 p.p. and +0,6 p.p. vs October 2018YTD).And again Segment A is the only segment able to show a relevant positive sign on their growth in October19YTD (+8,4% vs October18YTD) 15,4% -12,2% 25,5% 4,9% 4,5% 14,9% 20,4% -6,3% -1,2% -3,0% 27,1% -17,6% 0,2% 72,8% -4,8% 30,5% -15,6% -3,3% -25,7% -17,2%
  • 21. 21 Segment C and Segment D –Top 10 – October 2019YTD Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis Italy – New Car Registrations by Segment C “Medium” D “Executive” 36.607 36.362 36.202 30.431 26.487 23.832 22.727 22.454 20.832 15.907 500XRENEGADE DUSTER GOLFCOMPASS ECOSPORT TIPO QASHQAI 3008 CLASSE A 20.759 13.653 10.028 9.882 9.818 8.822 6.620 6.480 6.141 5.996 RAV4TIGUAN KUGA X1STELVIO OCTAVIAGLAQ3 A4 EVOQUE ∆ Vol. % 19/18 YTD ∆ Vol. % 19/18 YTD 4,9% -16,8% 61,1% -7,5% 8,0% -22,1% -38,7% -13,3% -0,6% 35,4% -19,5% -9,4% -12,4% 42,0% -4,7% 34,9% -6,9% -9,1% -21,7% 5,7% Medium and Executive Segments are still the worst performers registering another drop (respectively - 4,9% and -6,1% compared to October 2018).As a result, their market share decreased respectively by - 1,4 p.p. and -0,7 p.p. on aYTD basis
  • 22. 22 Segment E and Segment F –Top 10 – October 2019YTD Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis Italy – New Car Registrations by Segment E “Luxury” F “Ultra Luxury” 973 582 408 266 265 223 214 211 191 190 911 GHIBLI MODEL SSERIE 7GTPANAMERA CLASSE S SERIE 8 MODEL X A8 ∆ Vol. % 19/18 YTD ∆ Vol. % 19/18 YTD 28,0% -24,6% -23,0% 3,8% 418,5% 38,9% -25,6% -0,8% 11,5% 223,0% 1,8% -27,3% -21,5% 146,3% -13,4% -33,8% -0,9% 904,8% 18,6% -8,7% 3.738 3.335 3.000 2.547 1.908 1.825 1.619 1.134 1.129 1.108 XC90A6 SPORT F-PACECLASSE ESERIE 5 Q8 X5 CAYENNE TOUAREG After collapse in March, Segment E and Segment F remained almost stable between April and October 2019. In fact, compared to the same period in 2018 Segment E has increased slightly its sales (196 units more sold or +0,7% vs. Sep 2018). On aYTD basis, both segments are stable in terms of market shares (respectively 0,0% and 0,0%)
  • 23. 23 Agenda 1 Europe 2 Italy 3 New Car Models Launches in Italy 4 Focus on Registrations Trends and CO2 Emissions in Italy
  • 24. 24 New Models Launch per Brand – Roadmap 2019 (1/5) Source: Quattroruote; Arthur D. Little Analysis New Car Models Launches in Italy Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec A B C D F Commercial Launch of New Model Facelift / Technical Update Premiere Launch Concluded Launch Postponed Launch Anticipated (P) Q3 R8 e-tron 4 Z4 C5 Aircross DS3 Crossback 1) 3 Series 2) X7 7 Series A4 Q5 plug-in 1) 8 Gran Coupè 2) X1 Serie 3 Touring F8 Tributo
  • 25. 25 New Models Launch per Brand – Roadmap 2019 (2/5) Source: Quattroruote; Arthur D. Little Analysis New Car Models Launches in Italy Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec F G H I J K Commercial Launch of New Model Facelift / Technical Update Premiere Launch Concluded Launch Postponed Launch Anticipated (P) Edge QX50 ProCeed Mondeo Soul Focus ST Puma Ionic XCeed
  • 26. 26 New Models Launch per Brand – Roadmap 2019 (3/5) Source: Quattroruote; Arthur D. Little Analysis New Car Models Launches in Italy Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec L M Commercial Launch of New Model Facelift / Technical Update Premiere Launch Concluded Launch Postponed Launch Anticipated (P) Range Rover Evoque Defender 1) ES hybrid 2) UX RC hybrid RX Mazda 3 A Class Sedan B Class GLE CLA GLC Mazda CX-30 CLA Shooting break GLBEQC
  • 27. 27 Source: Quattroruote; Arthur D. Little Analysis Commercial Launch of New Model Facelift / Technical Update Premiere Launch Concluded Launch Postponed Launch Anticipated New Models Launch per Brand – Roadmap 2019 (4/5) New Car Models Launches in Italy Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec M N O P R S (P) 508 SW 208 (P) 400Z (P) Macan 508 PHEV 3008 PHEV 911 Kadjar Clio (P) Tarraco Scala (P) Kodiaq RS Kamiq Twingo (P) Clio Scala Kamiq (P) Juke Corsa Superb
  • 28. 28 Commercial Launch of New Model Facelift / Technical Update Premiere Launch Concluded Launch Postponed Launch Anticipated New Models Launch per Brand – Roadmap 2019 (5/5) Source: Quattroruote; Arthur D. Little Analysis New Car Models Launches in Italy Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec S T V (P) Model 3 Supra T-Cross Golf 8 1) Corolla 2) RAV4 Prius Forester Levorg Passat S 60 Korando
  • 29. 29 Agenda 1 Europe 2 Italy 3 New Car Models Launches in Italy 4 Focus on Registrations Trends and CO2 Emissions in Italy
  • 30. 30 4% -1% -4% -5% 6% -38% -27% -26% -19% -31% -23% -25% -23% -20% -22% -27% -34% -14% -13% 0% -5% -4% 16% 3% 4% 11% 23% 27% 28% 29% 10% 33% 23% 35% 45% 31% 18% 12% 9% 6% 35% 16% 13% 28% 27% -13% -3% -6% 3% 2% 6% 15% 9% 6% 14% 19% 59% 37% 122 120 May 2018 Jan 2018 June 2018 Mar 2018 40% July 2018 Aug 2018 Sept 2018 Oct 2018 Nov 2018 Dec 2018 Jan 2019 Feb 2019 Mar 2019 -6% Jun 2019 Jul 2019 Aug 2019 Sep 2019 Oct 2019 Apr 2018 110 May 2019 -9% -10% 8% 0% 27% -17% 119 117 Feb 2018 Apr 2019 +11% Introduction of WLTP2 and promotions preceding it, seem to have more relevant effect on CO2 emissions than the introduction of the Eco-bonus Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis Note: (*) In order to factor in seasonality, growth has been calculated using monthly units compared to the same month in the previous year (e.g. April 2019 uts on April 2018 uts) (**) Weighted average of CO2 emissions (g/km) of the monthly sales composition in Italy (***) Worldwide Harmonized Light Vehicles Italy – Focus on RegistrationsTrends and CO2 Emissions Registrations and CO2 Emissions Trend Registrations Growth* and CO2 Emissions (CO2e g/km)** ◼ Since the Eco-bonus was introduced, CO2 emissions level grew (119,3 g/km in March 2019 vs 119,7 g/km in July 2019). This might be explained by the “late effect” of car orders placed before the entry into force of the Eco-tax and by the effect of “waiting" of WLTP introduction which came into force on 1 September 2019. ◼ The recent proposal of the Government to introduce in the fiscal Year 2020 an important increase of taxes on company cars for all employees might have a possible negative effect over the last months of 2019 Petrol Diesel Alternative Introduction of WLTP*** Sales Approval Government approves introduction of Eco-tax / Eco- bonus in March 2019 Official introduction of Eco-tax / Eco-bonus CO2 (g/km) Introduction of WLTP***+ISC+EVAP Sales Approval Uncertainty causing high volatility Promotions preceding WLTP2 introduction
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