Arthur D. Little Automotive Report May 2021

Automotive Report
Analysis of New Car Registrations
May 2021

2
Analysis of New Car Registrations in Europe and Italy
* EU (27 Countries) + EFTA Countries (Iceland, Norway, Switzerland) + UK; ** Δ% May 2021 / May 2019
Executive Summary
◼ Areas: North-East -34,3%, North-West -26,8%, Centre -23,6%, South -18,9% and Islands
-19,1%, in volume in May 2021 compared to May 2019
◼ Customer segments: Retail -10,9%, Fleet -31,9% and Business -27,2% in volume in May
2021YTD compared to May 2019YTD
◼ Brands: among theTop 15 by volume, highest rate for Suzuki +20,6%,Audi +2,7% and
Toyota -0,8% in May 2021YTD compared to May 2019YTD
◼ Premium brands: among theTop 15 by volume Audi +2,7%, BMW -41% and Mercedes-Benz
-12,6% in volume in May 2021YTD compared to May 2019YTD
◼ Top 3 Countries by growth of new registrations: Norway +7,2%, Ireland -6,3% and
Lithuania -6,8% in volume in May 2021 compared to May 2019
◼ Top 3 Countries by market share: Germany 21,5% (-0,5 p.p.), Italy 14,1% (+1,0 p.p.) and UK
13,9% (-1,2 p.p.) in May 2021YTD compared to May 2019YTD
◼ Brands: among theTop 15 by volume, smallest decrease for Toyota -3,3%, Kia -9,3% and
BMW -12,8% in May 2021YTD compared to May 2019YTD
◼ Premium brands: BMW -12,8%,Audi -17,9% and Mercedes-Benz -20,3% in volume in May
2021YTD compared to May 2019YTD
Europe*
Italy
-25,0%**
-27,9%**
◼ Starting from March 2020 sales have been heavily hit by Covid-19 outbreak. To make
figures comparable this edition of Automotive Report compares 2021 and 2019 data

3
Agenda
1 Europe
1.1 Market Overview
1.2 New Car Registrations by Brand
2 Italy
3 Focus on Covid-19: connection between outbreak and EVs growth
4 New Car Models Launches in Italy

4
Top 10 European Markets* – May 2021 vs May 2019
Europe – Market Overview
Source: ACEA, Arthur D. Little Analysis, Sweden Transport Analysis Agency
EU New Car Registrations
1.083.795
1.444.173
2021 2019
-25,0%
* EU (27 Countries) + EFTA Countries (Iceland, Norway, Switzerland) + UK
##
#°
##
Ranking on May 2021 data
New Car Registrations in May 2021
Δ% May 2021 / May 2019
-26,4
10°
22.503
-12,1
6°
41.388
1°
230.635
-27,9
3°
142.730
-24,1
5°
95.403
-14,7
2°
156.737
-30,7
During the May the EU passenger car market has continued to decline as countries continued to struggle
with COVID-19. The increase has been registered only for 1 out of 30 countries (Norway +7,2%)
and decrease for 29 countries (highest decline for Croatia -51,2%)
-31,8
7°
34.836
-30,1
8°
25.601
◼ The European market (EU+UK+EFTA) lost
about 1/4 of registrations in May 2021 with
1.083.795 cars compared to 1.444.173 in the
same period of 2019, as a result of the
negative impacts of restrictions from Covid-19
9°
24.327
-23,8
-27,3
4°
141.040

5
In the first 5 months of 2021 European PC registrations (5.204.398 units in total) decreased by -25,0% compared to 2019YTD.All
countries have decreased except for Sweden and Norway (that have increased by +0,7% and +1,1% respectively from May 21/19YTD)
Top 10 European Markets* – May 2021YTD
Source: ACEA, Arthur D. Little Analysis
Europe – Market Overview
Highlights Market share
# Country
May
2021 YTD
∆ Vs 2019
1 Germany 21,5% -0,5%
2 Italy 14,1% 1,0%
3 UK 13,9% -1,2%
4 France 13,9% 0,4%
5 Spain 6,9% -1,2%
6 Poland 3,8% 0,5%
7 Belgium 3,7% -0,1%
8 Sweden 2,6% 0,7%
9 Netherlands 2,5% -0,2%
10 Austria 2,1% 0,0%
-26,7
-19,3
-30,8
-22,7
-35,9
-14,5
-26,6
0,7
-29,6
-24,5
Market Share
∆ % Volume
May 21/19
* EU (27 Countries) + EFTA Countries (Iceland, Norway, Switzerland) + UK
20%
New Car Registrations May 2021 YTD
10%
-60
+30
0
-30

6
Top 15 – May 2021YTD
Europe – New Car Registrations by Brand
Source: ACEA, Arthur D. Little Analysis
∆ M.S.
21/19
-0,01 0,07 0,29 0,16 0,06 -0,17 0,14 0,09 -0,19 -0,05 -0,25 -0,04 0,21 0,06 0,14
Vol.’21 577.704 350.504 308.062 305.829 292.160 285.975 281.000 275.024 257.652 224.893 221.442 212.664 200.526 188.185 185.743 5.204.398
M.S.’21 11,1% 6,7% 5,9% 5,9% 5,6% 5,5% 5,4% 5,3% 5,0% 4,3% 4,3% 4,1% 3,9% 3,6% 3,6%
-25,6
-20,0
-3,3
-12,8
-20,3
-38,0
-14,8
-17,9
-39,5
-29,1
-43,7
-28,1
-9,3
-20,2
-14,7
-25,0
∆ %
21/19
Tot.**
*
* Opel includes Vauxhall New Car Registrations; ** EU (27 Countries) + EFTA Countries (Iceland, Norway, Switzerland) + UK

7
Agenda
1 Europe
2 Italy
2.1 Market Overview
2.2 Market Highlights
2.3 New Car Registrations by Brand
2.4 New Car Registrations by Group
2.5 New Car Registrations by FuelType

8
Italian Market –Variation of New Car Registrations 2021 vs 2019
Italy – Market Overview
Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis ∆’20/’19 ∆’21/’19
Italian car market continues the year with a double-digit decline even if we compare it to 2019. In May 2021, 142.730 new cars
were registered, -27,9% vs. 197.881 of May 2019 (the comparison with May 2020, that has seen only 99.842, is difficult, because,
as a fact, it was the first month after sever Covid-19 measures).All segments in May has lost in volume compared to 2019:
Private segment was recovering better than other segments (-10,9%), while Fleet registered -31,9% and Business -27,2%. Main
optimistic numbers are related to EV sales (+340,5% in May 2021 vs. 2019 with 5.163 registered units this month) and hybrid
sales (+349,5% or 37.376 units registered more than in May 2019). More than 175.747 cars were lost in the first five months of
2021, with 735.125 units registered, down 19.3% on 2019.
May 2021
-11,0%
-5,9%
March
February
January April
-0,4%
May July August September October November
-19,9%
-27,9%
-85,4%
-12,7%
-97,6%
-8,3%
-17,1%
-49,6%
-23,1%
9,5%
-0,2%
-14,9%
-18,9%
-8,8%
June December

9
-4,3
-8,5
-21,2
-23,6
-28,9
-30,7
-31,9
-35,6
-48,9
-56,4
Italian Market – May 2021 vs May 2019
Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis
Italy – Market Overview
2015
2014
Δ% May 2021 / May 2019
142.730
197.881
-27,9%
2019
-26,8%
North-West
42.479
Islands
7.670
-34,3%
North-East
48.495
-23,6%
Centre
29.259
South
14.827
##
aa
##
Region
New Car Registrations in May 2021
Δ% May 2021 / May 2019
Growth of the Top 10
brands by volumes
6
-19,1%
-18,9%
2021

10
Diesel
24,5%
Petrol
32,4%
LPG 6,0%
CNG* 2,3%
EV*
34,7%
Other
43,0%
Italian Market – May 2021YTD vs May 2019YTD
Italy – Market Highlights
Analysis by “Customer Segment” Analysis by “Fuel Type”
Analysis by “Geographical Area” Analysis by “Car Segment”
458.817
173.444
102.864
515.004
254.630
141.238
Retail Fleet Business
-10,9% -31,9% -27,2%
∆’21/’19
219.300 232.527
160.999
81.949
40.349
270.369
325.584
180.451
88.318
46.151
North-West North-East Centre South Islands
122.058
735.125
285.309
215.169
96.939 13.324 2.326
E
A B C F
D Total
-17,4% -12,9% -30,9% -7,8% -18,4% 0,1%
-18,9% -28,6% -10,8% -7,2% -12,6%
2021
2019
∆’21/’19 ∆’21/’19
2021
2019
-53,8
-39,7
∆% Volume May 2021 / May 2019YTD)
* CNG: Compressed Natural Gas (Methane and Ethanol); EV: Electric Vehicle (Hybrid and Electric)
735.125
910.872
2019
2021
-19,3
+391,1
-26,4
+26,8

11
Italian Market – May 2021 vs May 2019
“Fuel type” mix evolution
HEV - Hybrid Electric Vehicle; PHEV – Plug-in hybrid electric vehicle; BEV – Battery electric vehicle
∆% Volume May 2021 / May 2019(YTD)
43,6%
31,0%
41,9%
23,4%
6,6%
6,4%
6,0%
37,0%
1,9%
May
2019
2,2%
May
2021
100%
HEV+PHEV+BEV
Petrol Diesel LPG CNG
◼ Over the last two years a progressive evolution of fuel type
mix in Italian market has been observed
◼ In particular, respect 2019, in May 2021 Petrol and Diesel had a
relevant lost in terms of market share (-12.6 p.p and -18.5 p.p
respectively) and alternative fuel types, have increased their
market share from 6,0% up to 37,0%
◼ Still, these increase was due mainly to mild hybrid vehicles
(HEV), that are actually not "real" electric vehicles, while the
contribute of PHEV and BEV was less important
HEV
PHEV
BEV
MS
May ‘19
5,1%
0,2%
0,6%
MS
May ‘21
28,0%
5,4%
3,6%
MS Delta
May '21 vs. '19
+22,9 p.p
+5,1 p.p
+3,0 p.p
-18,5%
-12,6%
+31,0%

12
Italian Market – Distribution channels – May 2021YTD vs May 2019YTD
∆% Volume May 2021 / May 2019 (YTD)
*) Self-registrations related to LTR&STR use made by Dealers and OEMs;
**) Including Dealers and OEMs self-registrations not related to LTR & STR
Retail
Private Customers
-31,9%
MS:
23,6%
42,6
133,8
106,2
2021
14,6
123,3
2019
7,5
254,6
173,4
-7,8%
-10,9%
MS:
62,4%
-27,2%
MS:
14,0%
-59,9%
-48,8%
43,2
2021
98,1
2019
38,9
64,0
141,2
102,9
-9,9%
458,8
2019 2021
515,0
-10,9%
-34,8%
Private Customers STR
LTR Captive LTR&STR* Companies Captive self-registrations
◼ Respect May 2019YTD, in 2021, Retail
segment of the Italian market was
recovering better than other segments
(56.187 units sold less) and has increased
its Market ShareYTD (56.5% in May 2019
vs. 62.4% in May 2021)
◼ All of Fleet subsegments decreased in May
2021 vs. 2019YTD due to COVID-19
outbreak: STR segment (-59,9% or 63.575
units sold less vs. May 2019).The drop of LTR
segment was much less relevant (-7,8% or
10.473 units sold less vs. May 2019)
◼ The decrease of the Business segment
registrations in May 2021YTD vs. May 2019
YTD was related both to the reduction of
Captive self-registrations (-34,8% or 34.085
units less sold) and Company registrations
(-9,9% or 4.289 units less sold)
Fleet
LTR, STR and Captive LTR&STR*
Business
Company registrations**
Market Share YTD increase / decrease
May 2021 / May 2019 (YTD)

13
New Car Registrations by Brand – May 2021YTD (1/3)
Italy – New Car Registrations by Brand
116.500
62.695
48.470 46.036 42.069 37.919 33.324 31.016 30.883 29.363 26.104 24.352 24.150 22.770 20.093
-21,0 -24,2
-10,3
-20,5
-0,8
-15,1
-36,9 -39,3
-20,1
2,7
-4,1
-12,6
-39,6
-24,9
20,6
Volume
∆Volume
21/19 %
∆ M.S.
21/19 %
Market
Share %
-0,33 -0,55 0,66 -0,09 1,06 0,26 -1,27 -1,39 -0,04 0,85 0,56 0,25 -1,10 -0,23 0,90
15,85 8,53 6,59 6,26 5,72 5,16 4,53 4,22 4,20 3,99 3,55 3,31 3,29 3,10 2,73

14
18.988 18.654
14.063 13.085
10.733 9.468 8.871
6.379 5.759 5.132
3.247 2.882 2.875 2.805 2.393
-8,8 -12,8
14,5
-39,8
-13,8
2,5
-8,2 -16,0
8,0
-56,7 -70,9
-30,6
133,4
2,6
Volume
∆Volume
21/19 %
∆ M.S.
21/19 %
Market
Share %
0,30 0,19 0,56 -0,61 0,09 0,28 0,15 0,04 0,19 -0,60 -0,78 -0,07 0,25 0,08 0,33
2,58 2,54 1,91 1,78 1,46 1,29 1,21 0,87 0,78 0,70 0,44 0,39 0,39 0,38 0,33
N/A

15
2.201 2.186 2.152
1.986 1.933
1.041
723
406 375 371 276 149 26
-46,0
-13,3
-44,7
25,4
-21,8 -18,5
18,5 1,4 23,8
0,0
-0,1
Volume
∆Volume
21/19 %
∆ M.S.
21/19 %
Market
Share %
-0,15 0,02 0,21 -0,12 0,09 0,03 -0,01 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00
0,30 0,30 0,29 0,27 0,26 0,14 0,10 0,06 0,05 0,05 0,04 0,02 0,00

16
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
New Car Registrations by Group – Top 15 – May 2021YTD
Italy – New Car Registrations by Group
40,2
16,2
7,8
6,3
6,0
5,1
4,8
3,8
2,7
1,8
1,3
1,2
0,8
0,4
0,4
Top 5: 76,5%
Top 10: 94,7%
-10,8%
-1,5%
-22,4%
-12,3%
-20,5%
-5,2%
-38,1%
-29,3%
20,6%
-40,1%
2,4%
-26,5%
8,0%
-30,6%
133,0%
295.346
119.396
57.474
46.036
44.255
37.642
34.975
27.599
20.093
13.085
9.468
8.580
5.759
2.882
2.875
Stellantis
Volkswagen
Renault
Ford
Toyota
Hyundai Kia
BMW
Daimler
Suzuki
Nissan
Volvo
JLR
Mazda
Honda
DR Motor
Market Share
(%)
DeltaVolume
‘21 vs ‘19
Volume
Group Brand

17
New Car Registrations by FuelType – Top 10 – Petrol and Diesel
Italy – New Car Registrations by Fuel Type








































Diesel
Petrol
May 2021 2021YTD
 Ranking variation compared to previous period
2.303
2.228
2.092
1.942
1.878
1.855
1.536
1.282
1.267
1.258
13.984
13.751
12.168
11.099
10.353
10.344
8.911
7.479
7.252
7.067
2.790
1.639
1.448
1.344
1.334
1.176
1.079
1.019
979
933
500X
COMPASS
TIPO
TIGUAN
3008
RENEGADE
2008
T-ROC
Q3
C3
C3
PANDA
CORSA
T-CROSS
208
T-ROC
500X
AYGO
RENEGADE
2008
500X
RENEGADE
3008
TIGUAN
TIPO
COMPASS
2008
Q3
KUGA
T-ROC
10.535
9.192
8.468
6.650
6.058
5.827
5.735
5.659
4.841
4.417
T-CROSS
C3
T-ROC
AYGO
500L
CORSA
500X
208
CROSSLAND X
2008

18
1.849
1.220
957
845
693
651
365
325
306
287
New Car Registrations by FuelType – Top 10 – LPG and CNG




















CNG
LPG
May 2021 2021YTD




















3.486
3.044
2.272
1.954
1.322
1.192
1.003
920
905
316
607
493
447
355
272
258
254
205
123
88
SANDERO
DUSTER
CAPTUR
CLIO
PANDA
YPSILON
FIESTA
STONIC
PICANTO
SPORTAGE
POLO
ARONA
KAMIQ
PANDA
IBIZA
UP!
GOLF
A3
OCTAVIA
SCALA
POLO
KAMIQ
ARONA
PANDA
IBIZA
A3
UP!
GOLF
OCTAVIA
SCALA
8.242
8.033
5.078
4.529
3.276
2.261
1.824
1.544
1.542
1.491
SANDERO
DUSTER
PANDA
CAPTUR
CLIO
YPSILON
SPORTAGE
STONIC
PICANTO
FIESTA

19
7.309
4.168
3.911
2.909
2.716
1.644
1.521
1.142
1.066
793
New Car Registrations by FuelType – Top 10 – Hybrid (HEV and PHEV)
(*) Hybrid Electric Vehicle (HEV), (**) Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV)










PHEV
Plug-in
Hybrid
(**)
HEV
Hybrid
(*)
May 2021 2021YTD




















908
792
534
493
479
470
317
300
296
246
PANDA
500
YPSILON
PUMA
YARIS
C-HR
IGNIS
SWIFT
TUCSON
RAV4
PANDA
YPSILON
500
YARIS
PUMA
SWIFT
IGNIS
C-HR
TUCSON
VITARA
COMPASS
RENEGADE
XC40
CAPTUR
X1
3008
KUGA
COUNTRYMAN
GLE
CLASSE A
COMPASS
XC40
X1
CAPTUR
RENEGADE
FORMENTOR
KUGA
TIGUAN
3008
Q3
37.924
19.792
17.565
16.653
13.395
7.429
7.378
6.269
5.471
4.009
3.631
2.791
2.788
2.565
1.998
1.628
1.227
936
893
774











20
New Car Registrations by FuelType – Top 10 – Pure Electric (BEV)
(*) Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV)
BEV
Pure
Electric
(*)
May 2021 2021YTD










1.030
641
513
473
425
283
243
167
157
141
500
FORTWO
TWINGO
MODEL 3
ZOE
208
ID.3
2008
CORSA
LEAF
500
FORTWO
TWINGO
ID.3
MODEL 3
208
ZOE
LEAF
ENYAQ
ID.4
4.151
2.965
2.297
2.131
1.943
1.351
1.211
852
842
733











21
New Car Registrations of Hybrid vs Pure ElectricVehicles
Source: UNRAE, Arthur D. Little Analysis;
*) HEV = Hybrid Electric Vehicles; PHEV = Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles; **) BEV = Pure Electric
Italy – Focus on ElectricVehicles Market in Italy
38.127
51.947 58.043
255.112
2020
2018 2019 2021
EV RegistrationsTrend
Volume, DeltaYoY, EV Market Share May ‘21YTD
HEV, PHEV* and BEV**VehiclesTrend
Volume May ‘21YTD
Delta
YoY
34,9% 36,2% 11,7% 339,5%
M.S. 4,0% 5,7% 12,9% 34,7%
CAGR
91,6%
4,7%
6,8%
2018
3,7%
89,2%
4,1%
2019
7,1%
13,2%
79,7%
2020
9,1%
79,0%
12,0%
2021
PHEV
BEV HEV
+79,4%
+178,4%
+134,3%

22
Overview of New Car Registrations by Segment
Italy – New Car Registrations by Segment
Segments Growth in Market Share* Market Share andVolume**
+0,4%
D
«Executive»
+2,8%
B
«Supermini»
+0,1%
E
«Luxury»
-4,9%
C
«Medium»
+0,0%
F
«Ultra Luxury»
16,6%
1,8%
A
38,8%
D
29,3%
B
C
13,2%
E
96.939
0,3%
F
100,0%
Tot.
122.058
285.309
215.169
13.324
2.326
735.125
A
«Utility/City»
* Δ% May 2021 YTD / May 2019 YTD; ** Market Share and Volume May 2021 YTD
+1,6%

23
Segment A and Segment B –Top 10 – May 2021YTD
A
“Utility/City”
B
“Supermini”
56.913
22.981
7.479 7.379 5.909 5.632 4.635 4.203 3.518 2.966
I10
PANDA 500 UP!
IGNIS
AYGO PICANTO C1 108 FORTWO
22.798
19.859
17.950 17.363
15.460
14.404 13.654
12.615 12.197 11.746
YPSILON 208 SANDERO
YARIS 2008
C3 PUMA CORSA CLIO CAPTUR
∆ Vol. %
21/19 YTD
∆ Vol. %
21/19 YTD
Segment A and Segment B have registered an
increase in terms of MS (+0,4 p.p and +2,8 p.p
respectively vs May 2019YTD). But in terms of
volumes, both Segment A and Segment B, in May
2021 have decreased vs. May 2019 (-17,4% and
-12,9% respectively)
-17,1% 16,6% 15,4% 72,0% 8,2% 36,4% 14,4% -46,5% 17,1% -57,0%
-24,8% 6,0% -15,2% N/A 20,2% -8,8% 24,8% -45,3% -26,6% -10,1%

24
Segment C and Segment D – Top 10 – May 2021YTD
C
“Medium”
D
“Executive”
19.447 19.235
14.761
11.828 11.551 11.024
8.939 8.239 7.213 6.269
TIPO
500X GOLF
3008
DUSTER COMPASS
RENEGADE T-ROC TUCSON C-HR
9.605
7.854
7.415 7.133
4.495
3.997
3.554 3.219 3.200 2.838
OCTAVIA RANGE
ROVER
EVOQUE
X1
TIGUAN KUGA Q3 GLA RAV4 STELVIO A4
∆ Vol. %
21/19 YTD
∆ Vol. %
21/19 YTD
-8,0% 0,5% -27,6% -42,8% -35,4% -11,0% -39,0% -42,1% 21,1% -23,4%
-11,6% 5,5% 42,1% 31,7% 15,8% -17,1% -2,7% -38,6% 9,6% -9,8%
Medium Segment and Executive Segment had a bad
performance registering a drop (respectively -30,9%
and -7,8% compared to May 2019). But in terms of MS
onYTD basis Segment C decreased (-4,9 p.p) while
Segment D increased (+1,6 p.p)

25
Segment E and Segment F – Top 10 – May 2021YTD
E
“Luxury”
F
“Ultra Luxury”
624
240
189 189
144
110 93 91 85 75
PANAMERA URUS
911 F-TYPE
F8
GHIBLI TAYCAN
CLASSE S SERIE 8 SERIE 8 GC
∆ Vol. %
21/19 YTD
∆ Vol. %
21/19 YTD
-13,1% 410,7% -48,4% 266,2% -5,8% -50,0% -50,1% -28,9% 50,2% 132,4%
85,7% -18,1% 68,8% N/A -29,4% N/A -39,2% 7,1% N/A -11,8%
1.697
1.578
1.061
952 890 836 797 749 688 660
X5 RANGE
ROVER
SPORT
Q8
A6 GLE SERIE 5 CLASSE E
GLE COUPE CAYENNE X6
Segment E remained stable (0.0 p.p) and Segment F has
slightly increased in terms of market shares (+0.1 p.p).
Segment F has lost 18,4% (or 3.014 units sold less vs. May
2019), while the Segment E grew (+0,1% or 2 units sold
more vs. May 2019)

26
Agenda
1 Europe
2 Italy

27
The MS of traditional ICE* vehicles has been declining over 2017-2019. But
the pandemic year 2020 has accelerated EVs sales** significantly (sales x 3)
Focus on Covid-19: connection between outbreak and EVs growth
Sources: Arthur D. Little analysis on Acea data
*) ICE – Internal Combustion engines; **) EVs = BEV + PHEV
◼ Covid-19 outbreak had a relevant impact on Automotive
industry across Europe.The drastic reduction of sales might
have pushed back CO2 emission objectives that OEMs
and EU countries were supposed to reach
◼ Therefore, when focusing on how to bring the automotive
market back to full strength, EU countries opted to promote
a green, sustainable recovery, with some governments
creating new purchase incentives within their economic-
stimulus packages
◼ This governmental incentives were integrated by tactical
actions of OEMs that have introduced further incentives (e.g.
finance, discount….)
◼ This resulted in many consumers moving away from traditional
internal combustion engines (ICE) vehicles during the pandemic,
instead purchasing low-emissions alternatives
The COVID-19 pandemic had supported the growth of EVs** across Europe.The market share of ICE* vehicles has continued to
decline also in the Q1 of 2021. If we remove from the mix hybrid vehicles (HEV), that are actually not "real" electric vehicles,
the MS of PHEV and BEV has tripled (increasing from 3,0% to 10,5% between 2019 and 2020)
49,7%
55,6% 57,7%
47,5%
42,2%
44,3%
36,7% 31,6%
28,0%
23,2%
2,9% 4,0%
5,7%
11,9%
18,4%
1,9%
5,4%
5,7%
5,1%
8,2%
1,8%
1,0%
0,7% 0,7% 2,1%
1,7%
2017 Q1 2021
2020
2018 2019
100%
1,1%
0,9% 2,3%
2,0%
Petrol
Diesel Alternative fuels
BEV (Battery electric)
PHEV (Plug-in hybrid)
HEV (Hybrid electric)
New passenger cars by fuel type in the EU 2017 – Q1 2021
94,0%
75,5%
65,4%
89,3%
92,3%
10,7%
24,5%
Pre-pandemic Post-pandemic
ICEs
Alternative

28
Source: Arthur D. Little analysis on JATO data
*) UK; France; Germany; Italy; Spain
Italy was the latest country after Germany, France,Austria and Spain to announce greater financial aids
for the purchase of new cars (only in July 2020).This has partially slowed down the recovery path
Internal combustion
Engine (ICE)
Engine
Clutch
Transmission
Diff
Hybrid Electric
(HEV)
Diff
Transmission
Clutch
Battery
pack
Inverter
Engine
Motor
generator
Plug-In-Hybrid
(PHEV)
Diff
Battery
pack
Inverter
Engine
Motor
Generator
Battery Electric
(BEV)
Motor/Generator
Battery pack
Inverter
Diff
Due to Covid-19 the Government support for the purchase of an EV has
increased significantly from 2019 up to 2020 amongTop 5 EU markets
Average discount by fuel type in EU5*
€ 0
€ 2.000
€ 4.000
€ 6.000
€ 8.000
€ 10.000
2019 2019
2020 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020
Government support for the
purchase of an EV, increased from a
very minimal offering in 2019, to 51%
of the overall discount for BEVs in
2020, while government support for
PHEVs was 28%
◼ Also with the beginning of 2021 the
outlook for incentives is still
promising
◼ The number of campaigns remains high,
and 2021 promises to be another active
year, with countries coming out of local
lockdowns, government scrappage
programs coming up for renewal, and
new or revised taxes across many
countries
Governments
OEMs

29
Incentives provided both by Governments and by OEMs have pushed
customers to change their preferences towards EVs* rather than ICEs**
Sources: Arthur D. Little analysis on The International Council of Clean Transportation
*) EVs = BEV + PHEV; **) ICE – Internal Combustion engines;
◼ According to the research conducted by the
International Council of Clean Transportation,
without any financial aid, owning a
C-segment BEV (100 kW, 0 g CO2/km)
would bear significantly higher costs than a
comparable petrol version (96 kW, 108 g
CO2/km NEDC, 121 g CO2/km WLTP)
◼ With the increased bonus amounts on car
purchases as part of the recovery packages,
assuming no older car is scrapped and private
ownership of the vehicle, the costs decrease
significantly
◼ Over a 4-year holding period and only taking into
account one-time registration and annual
ownership taxes, the cost advantage adds up to
almost €4.000 in Germany and over €2.000 in
France. In Italy and Spain, the benefit would
be over €1.000. Purchasers of a BEV in Austria
have almost no cost advantage over 4 years.
As the markets are getting back to normal, it's mostly likely to expect that governmental incentives will still take place (at
least until the automotive market will recovery to pre-pandemic level). But what will happen to the market in terms of
fuel mix when the governmental incentives will no longer be available?
4-year consumer ownership costs by fuel type and country incentives
€ 0
€ 5.000
€ 10.000
€ 15.000
€ 20.000
€ 25.000
€ 30.000
€ 35.000
C-segment
petrol
C-segment EV
Germany France Italy Spain Austria
C-segment EV
€6k bonus
by Govern.t
+
€3k bonus
by OEM
€7k bonus
by Govern.t
€5k bonus
by Govern.t
+
€1k bonus
by OEM
€4k bonus
by Govern.t
+
€1k bonus
by OEM
€3k bonus
by Govern.t
+
€2k bonus
by OEM

30
Sources: Arthur D. Little analysis on LMC data;
*) EVs = BEV + PHEV; **) ICE – Internal Combustion engines;
According to estimations, between 2026 and 2027 the market share of EV vehicles (BEV+PHEV) in Italy will exceed ICEs
market share. Governmental incentives will be important in this path as already shown by market evolution in 2020
Covid-19 outbreak had a positive effect on EVs MS in Italy.This trade will
continue in the next decade, but the pace will depend on different factors
New passenger cars by fuel type 2020-2030: focus on Italy
6,1%
5,7%
0,9%
8,3%
2020 2022 2023
0,0%
2024 2025 2030
2026 2027 2028
0,0%
2029
0,0% 0,0%
0,0%
13,0%
0,0%
0,1%
0,0%
0,0% 0,0% 0,0%
4,3%
16,1%
79,6%
24,6%
67,1%
30,4%
56,6%
16,0%
31,1%
52,9%
19,8%
34,1%
46,0%
23,7%
38,9%
37,3%
27,7%
41,3%
31,0%
32,3%
100%
25,0%
37,1%
43,9%
19,0%
43,1%
44,3%
42,7%
49,6%
44,2%
2019
0,0%
93,3%
2021
12,5%
BEV+PHEV HEV+MHEV ICE Other ◼ The nature and the pace of the
recovery and of the MS of EVs in
Italy will depend on:
− extended government support for
vehicle sales, which gives some upside
potential to the forecast if further
measures are brought in;
− affordability and economic recovery
path;
− infrastructure development working
somewhat against plug‐in sales
compared with some other European
markets
◼ The joining of forces of PSA and FCA,
with FCA being the beneficiary of PSA’s
more developed work on small and
medium car electrification, is a positive
factor for xEV growth in Italy in the
next years

31
Agenda
1 Europe
2 Italy

32
New Models Launch per Brand – Roadmap 2021 (1/5)
Source: Quattroruote; Arthur D. Little Analysis
New Car Models Launches in Italy
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
A
B
C
D
F
Commercial Launch of New Model
Facelift / Technical Update
Premiere
Launch Concluded
Launch Postponed
Launch Anticipated
(P)
Stelvio Tonale
Giulia GTA
e-Tron GT
BEV Q5 Sportback
Q4 e-Tron
BEV
iX BEV
i4
Serie 4 Gran
Coupé
C4 C5
Sandero Spring BEV
DS 4
DS 9
V6
500 X 500
◼ The launch plans announced by
OEMs could be delayed/reversed
due to the contingent market
situation

33
F
G
H
I
J
K
Premiere
Launch Concluded
Launch Postponed
Launch Anticipated
(P)
Fiesta
Mustang
Mach-E BEV
HR-V
Santa Fe Tucson Ioniq 5 BEV Bayon
XJ
Grand
Cherokee
Ioniq 5 BEV
Grand
Wagoneer
Imagine BEV
Sorento Sportage
situation

34
L
M
Premiere
Launch Concluded
Launch Postponed
Launch Anticipated
(P)
Huracan STO
MC 20
Ypsilon
Defender Range Rover
UX 300e
BEV
NX
Quattroporte Grecale
CX 30
CX 5 Mazda 3 Sedan
Mercedes SL
Classe S EQA BEV EQB BEV Classe C EQS BEV
situation

35
Premiere
Launch Concluded
Launch Postponed
Launch Anticipated
M
N
O
P
R
S
(P)
Ariya
Eclipse Cross
Qashsqai X-Trail
Mokka
Crossland
308
Taycan
Cross Turismo
911 GT3
Arkana
Megane
e-Vision
Cupra
Formentor
Cupra
el-Born BEV
Tarraco
Enyaq iV BEV Fabia
situation

36
Premiere
Launch Concluded
Launch Postponed
Launch Anticipated
S
T
V
(P)
Swace
Rexton
XV Outback
Across
Model Y
RAV4
Highlander Yaris Cross
ID.4 BEV Tiguan Allspace
XC 40 BEV
situation

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Arthur D. Little Automotive Report May 2021

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