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QLFS Q2: 2018
Quarterly Labour
Force Survey
Q2:2018
Risenga Maluleke
Statistician-General
#StatsSA
QLFS Q2: 2018
27,2%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
SOUTH AFRICA’S UNEMPLOYMENT RATE INCREASED BY 0,5 OF A PERCENTAGE
POINT TO 27,2% IN Q2 OF 2018. The unemployment rate has fluctuated between the 20%
and 30% band for the last 10 years.
Unemployment rate from 2008
Q1 to 2018 Q2
QLFS Q2: 2018
UnemployedEmployed
16,3 6,1
2,9
12,6
Other NEA
Not Economically Active
discouraged
workseekers
15,5 million
ILO hierarchy – Employed first then unemployed
and the remainder is NEA (including discouraged
job-seekers). 3 mutually exclusive groups.
Cannot be in two groups at the same time
Labour force
22,4 million
37,8 million
People of working age in South Africa (15 – 64 year olds)
M
M
M
Employed Unemployed
South Africa’s
official
unemployment rate
stands at
27,2%
M
Increased by 0,5 ppt
between
Q1 2018 and Q2 2018
THE WORKING AGE POPULATION (15-64 YEARS) IN Q2: 2018 WAS 37,8 MILLION
QLFS Q2: 2018
Jan-Mar
Apr-Jun
Jul-Sep
Oct-Dec
Jan-Mar
Apr-Jun
Jul-Sep
Oct-Dec
Jan-Mar
Apr-Jun
Jul-Sep
Oct-Dec
Jan-Mar
Apr-Jun
Jul-Sep
Oct-Dec
Jan-Mar
Apr-Jun
Jul-Sep
Oct-Dec
Jan-Mar
Apr-Jun
Jul-Sep
Oct-Dec
Jan-Mar
Apr-Jun
Jul-Sep
Oct-Dec
Jan-Mar
Apr-Jun
Jul-Sep
Oct-Dec
Jan-Mar
Apr-Jun
Jul-Sep
Oct-Dec
Jan-Mar
Apr-Jun
Jul-Sep
Oct-Dec
Jan-Mar
Apr-Jun
0M
5M
10M
15M
20M
25M
30M
2008
+65 000 q/q
- 90 000 q/q
+ 102 000 q/q
Other Not Economically Active
Unemployed
Employed
LabourForce
Q2 2018
+77 000 q/q
Discouraged work
seekers
NotEconomically
Active
THERE WAS AN INCREASE OF 154 000 PEOPLE OF WORKING AGE IN SOUTH
AFRICA (15 – 64 YEAR OLDS) BETWEEN Q1:2008 AND Q2:2018
Changes between Q1:2008 to
Q2:2018
QLFS Q2: 2018
EMPLOYMENT
&
LABOUR MARKET RATES
QLFS
Q2:2018
QLFS Q2: 2018
14,4 M
16,3 M
0 M
5 M
10 M
15 M
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
45,8% 43,1%
35%
40%
45%
50%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Number
of
employed
*Absorption
rate
59,6%
60,5% 59,3%
59,1%
50%
55%
60%
65%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
*Labour
force
participation
rate
The number of employed people increased from
14,4 million in Q1:2008 to 16,3 million in Q2:2018.
Absorption rate decreased by 0,4 of a percentage point in Q2:2018 to
43,1% (q/q) and has not recovered to level of 45,8% since 2008
The labour force participation rate decreased by 0,2 of a percentage point to
59,1% in Q2:2018 from Q1:2018.
*Labour force participation rate is the proportion of the working-age population that is either employed or unemployed.
*Absorption rate is the proportion of the working-age population that is employed.
THE NUMBER OF EMPLOYED PERSONS DECREASED BY 90 000 TO 16,3 MILLION IN
Q2 2018
Labour Market Dashboard
Q2:2018
QLFS Q2: 2018
71,5%
83,0%
49,0%
33,2%
43,1%
-15,0 5,0 25,0 45,0 65,0 85,0
Other
tertiary
Graduates
Matric
Less than
matric
Total
16,6%
6,9%
28,3%
31,9%
27,2%
-15,0 5,0 25,0 45,0 65,0 85,0
85,6%
89,2%
68,3%
48,8%
59,1%
-15,0 5,0 25,0 45,0 65,0 85,0
Other
tertiary
Graduates
Matric
Less than
matric
Total
+0,8
+0,1
-1,0
+1,0
-1,1
+1,0
+0,8
+0,1
-1,0
+1,5
-0,1
+1,1
Unemployment rate Absorption rate Participation rate
Change: Percentage points
Q1 2018 to Q2 2018
LABOUR MARKET RATES VARY SIGNIFICANTLY DEPENDING ON EDUCATION LEVEL
Labour market rates by
education level
QLFS Q2: 2018
53,7%
33,6%
21,3%
16,0%
9,7%
27,2%
- 15,0 5,0 25,0 45,0 65,0 85,0
15-24 yrs
25-34 yrs
35-44 yrs
45-54 yrs
55-64 yrs
15-64 yrs
25,1%
73,9%
80,7%
73,8%
45,1%
59,1%
-15,0 5,0 25,0 45,0 65,0 85,0
15-24 yrs
25-34 yrs
35-44 yrs
45-54 yrs
55-64 yrs
15-64 yrs
11,6%
49,0%
63,6%
62,0%
40,7%
43,5%
-15,0 5,0 25,0 45,0 65,0 85,0
15-24 yrs
25-34 yrs
35-44 yrs
45-54 yrs
55-64 yrs
15-64 yrs
-0,8
-0,1
+0,4
+0,6
+1,3
-1,1
-0,1
-0,4
-0,4
-0,6
-0,7
-0,2
-0,2
+0,1
-0,5
Change: Percentage points
Q1 2018 to Q2 2018
Labour market rates by age
group
THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE FOR THOSE AGED 25-34 IS DOUBLE THAT OF THE 45-54
YEAR OLDS.
Unemployment rate Absorption rate Participation rate
RSA = 27,2% RSA = 43,1% RSA = 59,1%
QLFS Q2: 2018
43,3%
30,6%
53,6%
56,9%
53,7%
0,0 10,0 20,0 30,0 40,0 50,0 60,0
Other
tertiary
Graduates
Matric
Less than
matric
Total
25,9%
8,8%
33,0%
39,6%
33,6%
0,0 10,0 20,0 30,0 40,0 50,0 60,0
Other
tertiary
Graduates
Matric
Less than
matric
Total
8,2%
4,4%
16,1%
23,4%
17,9%
0,0 10,0 20,0 30,0 40,0 50,0 60,0
Other
tertiary
Graduates
Matric
Less than
matric
Total
+3,3
+0,3
-2,9
-1,5
+0,5
0,0
-1,3
+2,6
+0,7
+0,1
-0,3
+0,1
15 – 24 years 25 – 34 years 35 – 64 years
Change: Percentage points
Q1 2018 to Q2 2018
Unemployment rate by
education level and age group
THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE AMONG THE YOUTH IS HIGHER IRRESPECTIVE OF
EDUCATION LEVEL
QLFS Q2: 2018
PROFILE OF THOSE NOT IN
EMPLOYMENT, EDUCATION OR
TRAINING
(NEET)
QLFS
Q2:2018
QLFS Q2: 2018
EducationWork
NEET
Those young people
(15-24 years) who are
categorised as NEET
are considered to be
disengaged from both
work and education.
Youth NEET rate is calculated as the total number of youth who are NEET as a proportion of the total youth-specific
working-age population
?
NOT IN EMPLOYMENT, EDUCATION OR TRAINING (NEET)
QLFS Q2: 2018
30,0%
28,9%
34,4% 34,4%
20%
22%
24%
26%
28%
30%
32%
34%
36%
2017 Q2 2018 Q2
FEMALE NEET
MALE NEET
NEET (15-24 years) by sex
APPROXIMATELY 3,3 MILLION (31,6%) OUT OF 10,3 MILLION YOUNG PEOPLE AGED
15-24 YEARS, WERE NOT IN EMPLOYMENT, EDUCATION OR TRAINING (NEET). The
overall NEET rate declined by 0,6 of a percentage point in Q2:2018 compared to Q2:2017
Female NEET
Remained unchanged
Male NEET
Down by 1,1
Percentage Points
15-24 YEARS
QLFS Q2: 2018
26,7%
28,0%
28,5%
28,5%
31,6%
34,0%
34,3%
34,6%
38,1%
38,7%
LP
WC
FS
GP
RSA
EC
MP
KZN
NC
NW
(-1,9)
(+2,0)
(-0,7)
(+0,5)
(-1,6)
(-0,6)
(-1,5)
(-3,8)
(-0,6)
(+1,9)
( ) Y/Y Change
Provincial NEET rate (Year on Year
Change Q2 : 2017 – Q2 : 2018
THE NW PROVINCE HAS THE HIGHEST RATE OF YOUNG PEOPLE AGED 15-24
YEARS NOT IN EMPLOYMENT, EDUCATION OR TRAINING AT 38,7%. The rate has
increased by two percentage points year on year.
QLFS Q2: 2018
34,6% 35,0%
43,4% 43,6%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
2017 Q2 2018 Q2
FEMALE NEET
MALE NEET
NEET (15-34 years) by sex
APPROXIMATELY 7,9 MILLION (39,3%) OUT OF 20,2 MILLION YOUNG PEOPLE AGED
15-34 YEARS, WERE NOT IN EMPLOYMENT, EDUCATION OR TRAINING (NEET).
The overall NEET rate increased by 0,4 of a percentage point y/y.
Female NEET
Up by 0,2 of a
percentage point
Male NEET
Up by 0,4 of a
percentage point
15-34 YEARS
QLFS Q2: 2018
Provincial NEET rate (Year –on – Year
Change Q2:2017 – Q2:2018)
THE NC PROVINCE HAS THE HIGHEST RATE OF YOUNG PEOPLE AGED 15-34
YEARS NOT IN EMPLOYMENT, EDUCATION OR TRAINING AT 44,5%. The rate
declined by 2,1 percentage points year-on-year.
30,7
37,1
37,2
37,3
39,3
40,2
43,1
43,2
44,1
44,5
WC
GP
LP
FS
RSA
MP
EC
KZN
NW
NC
( ) Y/Y Change
(-2,1)
(+0,9)
(+0,5)
(-0,5)
(-1,0)
(+0,3)
(-1,8)
(+0,9)
(+1,8)
(-0,7)
QLFS Q2: 2018
EMPLOYMENT
QLFS
Q2:2018
QLFS Q2: 2018
35 000 73 000 3 000
Agriculture
Private
households
Formal Sector
(Non agricultural)
Informal Sector
(Non agricultural)
22 000
(11,3 million jobs) (2,8 million jobs) (1,3 million jobs)(843 000 jobs)
decreased bydecreased by decreased by Increased by
NUMBER OF PERSONS EMPLOYED DECLINED BY 90 000 IN Q2 2018 TO 16,3 MILLION.
Q/Q Q/QQ/Q
Q/Q
QLFS Q2: 2018
0 5 10 15 20 25
Other
Utilities
Mining
Agriculture
Transport
Private households
Construction
Manufacturing
Finance
Trade
Services
Employment shares, Q2:2018
0,0%
1,0%
2,7%
5,2%
6,2%
8,0%
9,1%
10,7%
14,7%
19,8%
22,7%
0 5 10 15 20 25
Other
Utilities
Mining
Agriculture
Transport
Private households
Construction
Manufacturing
Finance
Trade
Services
Employment shares, Q1:2018
Share of
Nominal GDP
(Q1: 2018)
24%
15%
21%
13%
4%
10%
2%
7%
4%
CONSTRUCTION, TRADE AND AGRICULTURE HAVE HIGHER
EMPLOYMENT SHARES RELATIVE TO THEIR GDP CONTRIBUTION
Employment and GDP share
per industry
QLFS Q2: 2018
54
45
38
22
18
-3
-3
-57
-93
-105
Transport
Construction
Mining
Private households
Utilities
Finance
Agriculture
Trade
Services
Manufacturing
Quarter-on-quarter change (‘000)
132
80
60
13
8
4
1
-15
-46
-55
Services
Construction
Transport
Utilities
Agriculture
Finance
Mining
Private households
Trade
Manufacturing
Year-on-year change (‘000)
THE BIGGEST QUARTER-ON-QUARTER EMPLOYMENT LOSSES WERE
RECORDED IN MANUFACTURING, SERVICES AND TRADE INDUSTRIES
Employment changes by
industry
QLFS Q2: 2018
- 105 000
Q/Q Q/Q
- 57 000
Q/Q
Mainly driven by losses in:
Manufacturing of:
v Basic metals
v Food, food products,
beverages and tobacco
products
Manufacturing TradeServices
Mainly driven by losses in:
v Retail trade
v Sales, maintenance and
repair of motor vehicles
Mainly driven by losses in:
v Health and social work
v Other service activities
v Recreational, Culture and
sporting activities
v Public Administration and
Defense activities
- 93 000
EMPLOYMENT LOSSES WERE MAINLY DRIVEN BY THE MANUFACTURING, SERVICES
AND TRADE INDUSTRIES
Quarter-on-quarter employment
changes: Losses
QLFS Q2: 2018
54 000
Mainly driven by gains in:
v Other land transport.
v Railway transport
v Postal and related
courier activities
Transport MiningConstruction
Mainly driven by gains in:
Mining of:
v Non-ferrous ores
v Gold and Uranium ore
Mainly driven by gains in:
v Building complete
construction or parts
thereof; Civil engineering
v Building completion
38 00045 000
Q/Q Q/Q Q/Q
EMPLOYMENT GAINS WERE MAINLY DRIVEN BY THE TRANSPORT, CONSTRUCTION
AND MINING INDUSTRIES
Quarter-on-quarter employment
changes: Gains
QLFS Q2: 2018
0,4%
5,4%
6,1%
8,4%
8,7%
8,9%
10,5%
12,3%
16,2%
23,2%
Other
Skilled agriculture
Professional
Domestic worker
Operator
Manager
Technical
Clerk
Craft
Sales
Elementary
0,0 5,0 10,0 15,0 20,0 25,0
Elementary and domestic work
occupations
Employment share by
occupation, Q2:2018
CLOSE TO A THIRD (29,3%) OF ALL PEOPLE EMPLOYED IN Q2:2018 WERE
EMPLOYED IN ELEMENTARY AND DOMESTIC WORK OCCUPATIONS
QLFS Q2: 2018
Formal sector employment decreased by
144 000 to 11,2 million quarter-to-quarter
Formal sector employment has shown an
upward trend increasing from 9,9 million in
Q1:2008 to 11,4 million in Q3:2017
9,9 M
11,3 M
0 M
2 M
4 M
6 M
8 M
10 M
12 M
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Formal sector employment
FORMAL SECTOR EMPLOYMENT HAS SHOWN AN UPWARD TREND, INCREASING
FROM 9,9 MILLION IN Q1:2008 TO 11,3 MILLION IN Q2:2018
QLFS Q2: 2018
2,4 M
2,9 M
2,8 M
0 M
2 M
4 M
6 M
8 M
10 M
12 M
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Informal sector employment
INFORMAL SECTOR EMPLOYMENT HAS INCREASED FROM 2,4 MILLION IN Q1:2008
TO 2,8 MILLION IN Q2:2018
QLFS Q2: 2018
UNEMPLOYMENT
QLFS
Q2:2018
QLFS Q2: 2018
4,4 M
6,0 M
6,1 M
0 M
1 M
2 M
3 M
4 M
5 M
6 M
7 M
8 M
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
The number of unemployed people in South Africa increased from 4,4
million in Q1:2008 to 6,1 million in Q2:2018
Number of unemployed people
57,0%
68,5%
68,8%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
The proportion of those in long-term unemployment increased from 57,0%
in Q1:2008 to 68,8% in Q2:2018
Long term unemployment*
* Unemployed for a year or longer
LABOUR MARKET DASHBOARD
QLFS Q2: 2018
23,2%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
30,9%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
6,1 million
people were unemployed in Q2:2018
An increase of 102 000 q/q
9,6 million
people were unemployed in Q2:2018
An increase of 154 000 q/q
29,5%
25,3%
SA: 27,2%
41,2%
33,7%
SA: 37,2%
Expanded Definition includes the following
- Official unemployment (searched and available) 6,1 M
- Available to work but are/or
• Discouraged work-seekers 2,9 M
• Have other reasons for not searching 0,6 M
Official Unemployment Rate
27,2% (+0,5 % Point Change Q/Q)
Expanded Unemployment Rate
37,2% (+0,5 % Point Change Q/Q)
Q2:2018
Q2:2018
QLFS Q2: 2018
6,9%
11,8%
22,7%
30,1%
26,7%
8,0%
10,4%
23,3%
30,5%
27,2%
White
Indian/Asian
Coloured
Black African
Both sexes
Unemployment Rate
by Population Group
Q2:2018 Q1:2018
6,8%
11,5%
24,3%
27,9%
25,1%
8,5%
9,4%
23,6%
28,2%
25,3%
Male Unemployment Rate
By Population Group
Black women are the most vulnerable with
unemployment rate of over 30%.
7,1%
12,5%
21,0%
32,6%
28,8%
7,4%
12,2%
22,9%
33,2%
29,5%
Female Unemployment Rate
by Population Group
OFFICIAL unemployment rate
by population group and sex
BLACK WOMEN ARE THE MOST VULNERABLE WITH AN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE OF
OVER 30%.
QLFS Q2: 2018
9,8%
18,2%
27,5%
41,0%
36,7%
11,7%
16,4%
27,7%
41,5%
37,2%
White
Indian/Asian
Coloured
Black African
Both sexes
Expanded unemployment
rate by population group
Q2:2018 Q1:2018
8,8%
15,9%
28,4%
37,0%
33,2%
11,0%
13,4%
27,4%
37,6%
33,7%
0,0% 10,0% 20,0% 30,0% 40,0% 50,0%
Male expanded
unemployment rate
11,0%
21,9%
26,6%
45,4%
40,6%
12,5%
21,4%
28,1%
45,8%
41,2%
Female expanded
unemployment rate
IRRESPECTIVE OF SEX, THE BLACK AFRICAN AND COLOURED POPULATION
GROUPS REMAIN VULNERABLE IN THE LABOUR MARKET
EXPANDED unemployment rate by
population group and sex
QLFS Q2: 2018
19,3%
20,7%
21,8%
26,1%
27,2%
28,9%
29,7%
33,2%
34,2%
34,4%
Limpopo
Western Cape
KwaZulu Natal
North West
South Africa
Northern Cape
Gauteng
Mpumalanga
Eastern Cape
Free State
(+1,0)
(+0,8)
(-0,5)
(-0,6)
(-0,6)
(+0,3)
(+1,6)
(-1,4)
(+0,5)
( ) Q/Q Change
(+1,1)
Provincial unemployment rate:
Official Q2: 2018
FOUR OUT OF NINE PROVINCES SHOWED DECREASES IN THEIR UNEMPLOYMENT
RATE BETWEEN Q1: 2018 AND Q2: 2018 (EC, NC, KZN AND LP)
Absorption rate
(the percentage of
people in
employment)
41,5%
33,1%
41,8%
49,8%
40,0%
43,1%
38,2%
37,4%
54,5%
38,5%
QLFS Q2: 2018
37,4%
23,2%
40,9%
43,4%
37,2%
42,4%
34,4%
41,7%
45,8%
40,1%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%
Limpopo
Western Cape
KwaZulu Natal
North West
South Africa
Northern Cape
Gauteng
Mpumalanga
Eastern Cape
Free State
19,3%
20,7%
21,8%
26,1%
27,2%
28,9%
29,7%
33,2%
34,2%
34,4%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%
Limpopo
Western Cape
KwaZulu Natal
North West
South Africa
Northern Cape
Gauteng
Mpumalanga
Eastern Cape
Free State
18% Point Difference
19% Point Difference
17% Point Difference
Official Expanded
FS HAS THE HIGHEST UNEMPLOYMENT RATE BASED ON THE OFFICIAL DEFINITION
OF UNEMPLOYMENT. EC recorded the highest expanded unemployment rate while LP, KZN and NW
provinces all have more than 17% points difference between their expanded and official unemployment rate
Provincial unemployment rate:
Official vs Expanded Q2: 2018
QLFS Q2: 2018
UNDERSTANDING
NON-ECONOMICALLY ACTIVE
(NEA)
QLFS
Q2:2018
QLFS Q2: 2018
Student
40,2%
Discouraged work seekers
18,5%
Home-maker
16,7%
Illness/disability; 9,7%
Too old/young to work; 9,4%
Q1: 2018 to Q2:
2018 % Change5 main reasons for NEA
NEA
M
M
M
M
15,5 M
Quarter-on-quarter changes
Thousand
Student 82
Homemaker 54
Illness/disability -56
Too young/too old to work 23
Discouraged work seekers 77
Other -39
Up 0,1 of a
% Point
Down 0,5
% Point
Q1:2018 to Q2: 2018
Change in Figures
Up 0,3 of a
% Point
Up 0,2 of a
% Point
Up 0,2 of a
% Point
15,5 MILLION PEOPLE AGED 15 – 64 YEARS WERE NOT ECONOMICALLY ACTIVE. This
is an increase of 141 000 q/q
Reasons why – Not economically
active (NEA)
QLFS Q2: 2018
RECAP
UNEMPLOYMENT
RATE
EMPLOYMENT
GAINS
EMPLOYMENT
LOSSES
NOT IN EMPLOYMENT,
EDUCATION AND
TRAINING
Unemployment rate
increased by 0,5 of a %
point to 27,2% while
absorption rate and
labour force participation
rate declined by 0,4 and
0,2 of a percentage point
respectively
Largest employment gains
were recorded in
Transport (54 000),
Construction (45 000) and
Mining (38 000).
Employment losses were
observed in
Manufacturing
(105 000), Community
and social service (93 000),
and Trade (57 000)
Of the 10,3 million
persons aged (15-24
years) 31,6% were
not in employment,
education or
training.
Q2:2018
QLFS Q2: 2018
THANK YOU
QLFS
Q2:2018

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Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS), 2nd Quarter 2018

  • 1. QLFS Q2: 2018 Quarterly Labour Force Survey Q2:2018 Risenga Maluleke Statistician-General #StatsSA
  • 2. QLFS Q2: 2018 27,2% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 SOUTH AFRICA’S UNEMPLOYMENT RATE INCREASED BY 0,5 OF A PERCENTAGE POINT TO 27,2% IN Q2 OF 2018. The unemployment rate has fluctuated between the 20% and 30% band for the last 10 years. Unemployment rate from 2008 Q1 to 2018 Q2
  • 3. QLFS Q2: 2018 UnemployedEmployed 16,3 6,1 2,9 12,6 Other NEA Not Economically Active discouraged workseekers 15,5 million ILO hierarchy – Employed first then unemployed and the remainder is NEA (including discouraged job-seekers). 3 mutually exclusive groups. Cannot be in two groups at the same time Labour force 22,4 million 37,8 million People of working age in South Africa (15 – 64 year olds) M M M Employed Unemployed South Africa’s official unemployment rate stands at 27,2% M Increased by 0,5 ppt between Q1 2018 and Q2 2018 THE WORKING AGE POPULATION (15-64 YEARS) IN Q2: 2018 WAS 37,8 MILLION
  • 4. QLFS Q2: 2018 Jan-Mar Apr-Jun Jul-Sep Oct-Dec Jan-Mar Apr-Jun Jul-Sep Oct-Dec Jan-Mar Apr-Jun Jul-Sep Oct-Dec Jan-Mar Apr-Jun Jul-Sep Oct-Dec Jan-Mar Apr-Jun Jul-Sep Oct-Dec Jan-Mar Apr-Jun Jul-Sep Oct-Dec Jan-Mar Apr-Jun Jul-Sep Oct-Dec Jan-Mar Apr-Jun Jul-Sep Oct-Dec Jan-Mar Apr-Jun Jul-Sep Oct-Dec Jan-Mar Apr-Jun Jul-Sep Oct-Dec Jan-Mar Apr-Jun 0M 5M 10M 15M 20M 25M 30M 2008 +65 000 q/q - 90 000 q/q + 102 000 q/q Other Not Economically Active Unemployed Employed LabourForce Q2 2018 +77 000 q/q Discouraged work seekers NotEconomically Active THERE WAS AN INCREASE OF 154 000 PEOPLE OF WORKING AGE IN SOUTH AFRICA (15 – 64 YEAR OLDS) BETWEEN Q1:2008 AND Q2:2018 Changes between Q1:2008 to Q2:2018
  • 5. QLFS Q2: 2018 EMPLOYMENT & LABOUR MARKET RATES QLFS Q2:2018
  • 6. QLFS Q2: 2018 14,4 M 16,3 M 0 M 5 M 10 M 15 M 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 45,8% 43,1% 35% 40% 45% 50% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Number of employed *Absorption rate 59,6% 60,5% 59,3% 59,1% 50% 55% 60% 65% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 *Labour force participation rate The number of employed people increased from 14,4 million in Q1:2008 to 16,3 million in Q2:2018. Absorption rate decreased by 0,4 of a percentage point in Q2:2018 to 43,1% (q/q) and has not recovered to level of 45,8% since 2008 The labour force participation rate decreased by 0,2 of a percentage point to 59,1% in Q2:2018 from Q1:2018. *Labour force participation rate is the proportion of the working-age population that is either employed or unemployed. *Absorption rate is the proportion of the working-age population that is employed. THE NUMBER OF EMPLOYED PERSONS DECREASED BY 90 000 TO 16,3 MILLION IN Q2 2018 Labour Market Dashboard Q2:2018
  • 7. QLFS Q2: 2018 71,5% 83,0% 49,0% 33,2% 43,1% -15,0 5,0 25,0 45,0 65,0 85,0 Other tertiary Graduates Matric Less than matric Total 16,6% 6,9% 28,3% 31,9% 27,2% -15,0 5,0 25,0 45,0 65,0 85,0 85,6% 89,2% 68,3% 48,8% 59,1% -15,0 5,0 25,0 45,0 65,0 85,0 Other tertiary Graduates Matric Less than matric Total +0,8 +0,1 -1,0 +1,0 -1,1 +1,0 +0,8 +0,1 -1,0 +1,5 -0,1 +1,1 Unemployment rate Absorption rate Participation rate Change: Percentage points Q1 2018 to Q2 2018 LABOUR MARKET RATES VARY SIGNIFICANTLY DEPENDING ON EDUCATION LEVEL Labour market rates by education level
  • 8. QLFS Q2: 2018 53,7% 33,6% 21,3% 16,0% 9,7% 27,2% - 15,0 5,0 25,0 45,0 65,0 85,0 15-24 yrs 25-34 yrs 35-44 yrs 45-54 yrs 55-64 yrs 15-64 yrs 25,1% 73,9% 80,7% 73,8% 45,1% 59,1% -15,0 5,0 25,0 45,0 65,0 85,0 15-24 yrs 25-34 yrs 35-44 yrs 45-54 yrs 55-64 yrs 15-64 yrs 11,6% 49,0% 63,6% 62,0% 40,7% 43,5% -15,0 5,0 25,0 45,0 65,0 85,0 15-24 yrs 25-34 yrs 35-44 yrs 45-54 yrs 55-64 yrs 15-64 yrs -0,8 -0,1 +0,4 +0,6 +1,3 -1,1 -0,1 -0,4 -0,4 -0,6 -0,7 -0,2 -0,2 +0,1 -0,5 Change: Percentage points Q1 2018 to Q2 2018 Labour market rates by age group THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE FOR THOSE AGED 25-34 IS DOUBLE THAT OF THE 45-54 YEAR OLDS. Unemployment rate Absorption rate Participation rate RSA = 27,2% RSA = 43,1% RSA = 59,1%
  • 9. QLFS Q2: 2018 43,3% 30,6% 53,6% 56,9% 53,7% 0,0 10,0 20,0 30,0 40,0 50,0 60,0 Other tertiary Graduates Matric Less than matric Total 25,9% 8,8% 33,0% 39,6% 33,6% 0,0 10,0 20,0 30,0 40,0 50,0 60,0 Other tertiary Graduates Matric Less than matric Total 8,2% 4,4% 16,1% 23,4% 17,9% 0,0 10,0 20,0 30,0 40,0 50,0 60,0 Other tertiary Graduates Matric Less than matric Total +3,3 +0,3 -2,9 -1,5 +0,5 0,0 -1,3 +2,6 +0,7 +0,1 -0,3 +0,1 15 – 24 years 25 – 34 years 35 – 64 years Change: Percentage points Q1 2018 to Q2 2018 Unemployment rate by education level and age group THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE AMONG THE YOUTH IS HIGHER IRRESPECTIVE OF EDUCATION LEVEL
  • 10. QLFS Q2: 2018 PROFILE OF THOSE NOT IN EMPLOYMENT, EDUCATION OR TRAINING (NEET) QLFS Q2:2018
  • 11. QLFS Q2: 2018 EducationWork NEET Those young people (15-24 years) who are categorised as NEET are considered to be disengaged from both work and education. Youth NEET rate is calculated as the total number of youth who are NEET as a proportion of the total youth-specific working-age population ? NOT IN EMPLOYMENT, EDUCATION OR TRAINING (NEET)
  • 12. QLFS Q2: 2018 30,0% 28,9% 34,4% 34,4% 20% 22% 24% 26% 28% 30% 32% 34% 36% 2017 Q2 2018 Q2 FEMALE NEET MALE NEET NEET (15-24 years) by sex APPROXIMATELY 3,3 MILLION (31,6%) OUT OF 10,3 MILLION YOUNG PEOPLE AGED 15-24 YEARS, WERE NOT IN EMPLOYMENT, EDUCATION OR TRAINING (NEET). The overall NEET rate declined by 0,6 of a percentage point in Q2:2018 compared to Q2:2017 Female NEET Remained unchanged Male NEET Down by 1,1 Percentage Points 15-24 YEARS
  • 13. QLFS Q2: 2018 26,7% 28,0% 28,5% 28,5% 31,6% 34,0% 34,3% 34,6% 38,1% 38,7% LP WC FS GP RSA EC MP KZN NC NW (-1,9) (+2,0) (-0,7) (+0,5) (-1,6) (-0,6) (-1,5) (-3,8) (-0,6) (+1,9) ( ) Y/Y Change Provincial NEET rate (Year on Year Change Q2 : 2017 – Q2 : 2018 THE NW PROVINCE HAS THE HIGHEST RATE OF YOUNG PEOPLE AGED 15-24 YEARS NOT IN EMPLOYMENT, EDUCATION OR TRAINING AT 38,7%. The rate has increased by two percentage points year on year.
  • 14. QLFS Q2: 2018 34,6% 35,0% 43,4% 43,6% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 2017 Q2 2018 Q2 FEMALE NEET MALE NEET NEET (15-34 years) by sex APPROXIMATELY 7,9 MILLION (39,3%) OUT OF 20,2 MILLION YOUNG PEOPLE AGED 15-34 YEARS, WERE NOT IN EMPLOYMENT, EDUCATION OR TRAINING (NEET). The overall NEET rate increased by 0,4 of a percentage point y/y. Female NEET Up by 0,2 of a percentage point Male NEET Up by 0,4 of a percentage point 15-34 YEARS
  • 15. QLFS Q2: 2018 Provincial NEET rate (Year –on – Year Change Q2:2017 – Q2:2018) THE NC PROVINCE HAS THE HIGHEST RATE OF YOUNG PEOPLE AGED 15-34 YEARS NOT IN EMPLOYMENT, EDUCATION OR TRAINING AT 44,5%. The rate declined by 2,1 percentage points year-on-year. 30,7 37,1 37,2 37,3 39,3 40,2 43,1 43,2 44,1 44,5 WC GP LP FS RSA MP EC KZN NW NC ( ) Y/Y Change (-2,1) (+0,9) (+0,5) (-0,5) (-1,0) (+0,3) (-1,8) (+0,9) (+1,8) (-0,7)
  • 17. QLFS Q2: 2018 35 000 73 000 3 000 Agriculture Private households Formal Sector (Non agricultural) Informal Sector (Non agricultural) 22 000 (11,3 million jobs) (2,8 million jobs) (1,3 million jobs)(843 000 jobs) decreased bydecreased by decreased by Increased by NUMBER OF PERSONS EMPLOYED DECLINED BY 90 000 IN Q2 2018 TO 16,3 MILLION. Q/Q Q/QQ/Q Q/Q
  • 18. QLFS Q2: 2018 0 5 10 15 20 25 Other Utilities Mining Agriculture Transport Private households Construction Manufacturing Finance Trade Services Employment shares, Q2:2018 0,0% 1,0% 2,7% 5,2% 6,2% 8,0% 9,1% 10,7% 14,7% 19,8% 22,7% 0 5 10 15 20 25 Other Utilities Mining Agriculture Transport Private households Construction Manufacturing Finance Trade Services Employment shares, Q1:2018 Share of Nominal GDP (Q1: 2018) 24% 15% 21% 13% 4% 10% 2% 7% 4% CONSTRUCTION, TRADE AND AGRICULTURE HAVE HIGHER EMPLOYMENT SHARES RELATIVE TO THEIR GDP CONTRIBUTION Employment and GDP share per industry
  • 19. QLFS Q2: 2018 54 45 38 22 18 -3 -3 -57 -93 -105 Transport Construction Mining Private households Utilities Finance Agriculture Trade Services Manufacturing Quarter-on-quarter change (‘000) 132 80 60 13 8 4 1 -15 -46 -55 Services Construction Transport Utilities Agriculture Finance Mining Private households Trade Manufacturing Year-on-year change (‘000) THE BIGGEST QUARTER-ON-QUARTER EMPLOYMENT LOSSES WERE RECORDED IN MANUFACTURING, SERVICES AND TRADE INDUSTRIES Employment changes by industry
  • 20. QLFS Q2: 2018 - 105 000 Q/Q Q/Q - 57 000 Q/Q Mainly driven by losses in: Manufacturing of: v Basic metals v Food, food products, beverages and tobacco products Manufacturing TradeServices Mainly driven by losses in: v Retail trade v Sales, maintenance and repair of motor vehicles Mainly driven by losses in: v Health and social work v Other service activities v Recreational, Culture and sporting activities v Public Administration and Defense activities - 93 000 EMPLOYMENT LOSSES WERE MAINLY DRIVEN BY THE MANUFACTURING, SERVICES AND TRADE INDUSTRIES Quarter-on-quarter employment changes: Losses
  • 21. QLFS Q2: 2018 54 000 Mainly driven by gains in: v Other land transport. v Railway transport v Postal and related courier activities Transport MiningConstruction Mainly driven by gains in: Mining of: v Non-ferrous ores v Gold and Uranium ore Mainly driven by gains in: v Building complete construction or parts thereof; Civil engineering v Building completion 38 00045 000 Q/Q Q/Q Q/Q EMPLOYMENT GAINS WERE MAINLY DRIVEN BY THE TRANSPORT, CONSTRUCTION AND MINING INDUSTRIES Quarter-on-quarter employment changes: Gains
  • 22. QLFS Q2: 2018 0,4% 5,4% 6,1% 8,4% 8,7% 8,9% 10,5% 12,3% 16,2% 23,2% Other Skilled agriculture Professional Domestic worker Operator Manager Technical Clerk Craft Sales Elementary 0,0 5,0 10,0 15,0 20,0 25,0 Elementary and domestic work occupations Employment share by occupation, Q2:2018 CLOSE TO A THIRD (29,3%) OF ALL PEOPLE EMPLOYED IN Q2:2018 WERE EMPLOYED IN ELEMENTARY AND DOMESTIC WORK OCCUPATIONS
  • 23. QLFS Q2: 2018 Formal sector employment decreased by 144 000 to 11,2 million quarter-to-quarter Formal sector employment has shown an upward trend increasing from 9,9 million in Q1:2008 to 11,4 million in Q3:2017 9,9 M 11,3 M 0 M 2 M 4 M 6 M 8 M 10 M 12 M 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Formal sector employment FORMAL SECTOR EMPLOYMENT HAS SHOWN AN UPWARD TREND, INCREASING FROM 9,9 MILLION IN Q1:2008 TO 11,3 MILLION IN Q2:2018
  • 24. QLFS Q2: 2018 2,4 M 2,9 M 2,8 M 0 M 2 M 4 M 6 M 8 M 10 M 12 M 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Informal sector employment INFORMAL SECTOR EMPLOYMENT HAS INCREASED FROM 2,4 MILLION IN Q1:2008 TO 2,8 MILLION IN Q2:2018
  • 26. QLFS Q2: 2018 4,4 M 6,0 M 6,1 M 0 M 1 M 2 M 3 M 4 M 5 M 6 M 7 M 8 M 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 The number of unemployed people in South Africa increased from 4,4 million in Q1:2008 to 6,1 million in Q2:2018 Number of unemployed people 57,0% 68,5% 68,8% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 The proportion of those in long-term unemployment increased from 57,0% in Q1:2008 to 68,8% in Q2:2018 Long term unemployment* * Unemployed for a year or longer LABOUR MARKET DASHBOARD
  • 27. QLFS Q2: 2018 23,2% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 30,9% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 6,1 million people were unemployed in Q2:2018 An increase of 102 000 q/q 9,6 million people were unemployed in Q2:2018 An increase of 154 000 q/q 29,5% 25,3% SA: 27,2% 41,2% 33,7% SA: 37,2% Expanded Definition includes the following - Official unemployment (searched and available) 6,1 M - Available to work but are/or • Discouraged work-seekers 2,9 M • Have other reasons for not searching 0,6 M Official Unemployment Rate 27,2% (+0,5 % Point Change Q/Q) Expanded Unemployment Rate 37,2% (+0,5 % Point Change Q/Q) Q2:2018 Q2:2018
  • 28. QLFS Q2: 2018 6,9% 11,8% 22,7% 30,1% 26,7% 8,0% 10,4% 23,3% 30,5% 27,2% White Indian/Asian Coloured Black African Both sexes Unemployment Rate by Population Group Q2:2018 Q1:2018 6,8% 11,5% 24,3% 27,9% 25,1% 8,5% 9,4% 23,6% 28,2% 25,3% Male Unemployment Rate By Population Group Black women are the most vulnerable with unemployment rate of over 30%. 7,1% 12,5% 21,0% 32,6% 28,8% 7,4% 12,2% 22,9% 33,2% 29,5% Female Unemployment Rate by Population Group OFFICIAL unemployment rate by population group and sex BLACK WOMEN ARE THE MOST VULNERABLE WITH AN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE OF OVER 30%.
  • 29. QLFS Q2: 2018 9,8% 18,2% 27,5% 41,0% 36,7% 11,7% 16,4% 27,7% 41,5% 37,2% White Indian/Asian Coloured Black African Both sexes Expanded unemployment rate by population group Q2:2018 Q1:2018 8,8% 15,9% 28,4% 37,0% 33,2% 11,0% 13,4% 27,4% 37,6% 33,7% 0,0% 10,0% 20,0% 30,0% 40,0% 50,0% Male expanded unemployment rate 11,0% 21,9% 26,6% 45,4% 40,6% 12,5% 21,4% 28,1% 45,8% 41,2% Female expanded unemployment rate IRRESPECTIVE OF SEX, THE BLACK AFRICAN AND COLOURED POPULATION GROUPS REMAIN VULNERABLE IN THE LABOUR MARKET EXPANDED unemployment rate by population group and sex
  • 30. QLFS Q2: 2018 19,3% 20,7% 21,8% 26,1% 27,2% 28,9% 29,7% 33,2% 34,2% 34,4% Limpopo Western Cape KwaZulu Natal North West South Africa Northern Cape Gauteng Mpumalanga Eastern Cape Free State (+1,0) (+0,8) (-0,5) (-0,6) (-0,6) (+0,3) (+1,6) (-1,4) (+0,5) ( ) Q/Q Change (+1,1) Provincial unemployment rate: Official Q2: 2018 FOUR OUT OF NINE PROVINCES SHOWED DECREASES IN THEIR UNEMPLOYMENT RATE BETWEEN Q1: 2018 AND Q2: 2018 (EC, NC, KZN AND LP) Absorption rate (the percentage of people in employment) 41,5% 33,1% 41,8% 49,8% 40,0% 43,1% 38,2% 37,4% 54,5% 38,5%
  • 31. QLFS Q2: 2018 37,4% 23,2% 40,9% 43,4% 37,2% 42,4% 34,4% 41,7% 45,8% 40,1% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% Limpopo Western Cape KwaZulu Natal North West South Africa Northern Cape Gauteng Mpumalanga Eastern Cape Free State 19,3% 20,7% 21,8% 26,1% 27,2% 28,9% 29,7% 33,2% 34,2% 34,4% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% Limpopo Western Cape KwaZulu Natal North West South Africa Northern Cape Gauteng Mpumalanga Eastern Cape Free State 18% Point Difference 19% Point Difference 17% Point Difference Official Expanded FS HAS THE HIGHEST UNEMPLOYMENT RATE BASED ON THE OFFICIAL DEFINITION OF UNEMPLOYMENT. EC recorded the highest expanded unemployment rate while LP, KZN and NW provinces all have more than 17% points difference between their expanded and official unemployment rate Provincial unemployment rate: Official vs Expanded Q2: 2018
  • 32. QLFS Q2: 2018 UNDERSTANDING NON-ECONOMICALLY ACTIVE (NEA) QLFS Q2:2018
  • 33. QLFS Q2: 2018 Student 40,2% Discouraged work seekers 18,5% Home-maker 16,7% Illness/disability; 9,7% Too old/young to work; 9,4% Q1: 2018 to Q2: 2018 % Change5 main reasons for NEA NEA M M M M 15,5 M Quarter-on-quarter changes Thousand Student 82 Homemaker 54 Illness/disability -56 Too young/too old to work 23 Discouraged work seekers 77 Other -39 Up 0,1 of a % Point Down 0,5 % Point Q1:2018 to Q2: 2018 Change in Figures Up 0,3 of a % Point Up 0,2 of a % Point Up 0,2 of a % Point 15,5 MILLION PEOPLE AGED 15 – 64 YEARS WERE NOT ECONOMICALLY ACTIVE. This is an increase of 141 000 q/q Reasons why – Not economically active (NEA)
  • 34. QLFS Q2: 2018 RECAP UNEMPLOYMENT RATE EMPLOYMENT GAINS EMPLOYMENT LOSSES NOT IN EMPLOYMENT, EDUCATION AND TRAINING Unemployment rate increased by 0,5 of a % point to 27,2% while absorption rate and labour force participation rate declined by 0,4 and 0,2 of a percentage point respectively Largest employment gains were recorded in Transport (54 000), Construction (45 000) and Mining (38 000). Employment losses were observed in Manufacturing (105 000), Community and social service (93 000), and Trade (57 000) Of the 10,3 million persons aged (15-24 years) 31,6% were not in employment, education or training. Q2:2018
  • 35. QLFS Q2: 2018 THANK YOU QLFS Q2:2018