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Austin: Beyond the Cranes

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Brian Kelsey's presentation at the Austin Chamber of Commerce's 2014 Economic Outlook luncheon held on December 4, 2014.

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Austin: Beyond the Cranes

  1. 1. Austin: Beyond the Cranes Reviewing the Fundamentals & Looking Ahead to 2015 Austin Chamber of Commerce Economic Outlook 2014 December 4, 2014 Hyatt Regency Austin
  2. 2. 2 • Population change (nom) #10 • Population growth (%) #2 • Job change (nom) #7 • Job growth (%) #1 • GDP change (nom) #21 • GDP growth (%) #3 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics. U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Jobs are from 2000 to 2013. GDP is from 2001 to 2013 (2000 not available). Growth rankings (%) are among large MSAs. Data is for Austin-Round Rock MSA. Austin, TX: A Theory of Everything http://civicanalytics.com/austin- texas-a-theory-of-everything/ Austin rank among U.S. metros since 2000
  3. 3. 3 Austin is averaging 5.7% annual GDP growth Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Data is for Austin-Round Rock MSA. Not adjusted for inflation. Austin, TX: A Theory of Everything http://civicanalytics.com/austin- texas-a-theory-of-everything/ 1.2% 5.6% 9.0% 8.8% 10.0% 4.1% 6.4% -1.8% 7.2% 5.9% 7.8% 3.8% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Austin MSA U.S. % Change in GDP (Nominal) Average (2002-13) Austin MSA 5.7% U.S. 3.9%
  4. 4. 4 Austin: a tale of two very different recessions Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics. Data is for Austin-Round Rock MSA. Seasonally adjusted. Austin, TX: A Theory of Everything http://civicanalytics.com/austin- texas-a-theory-of-everything/ -6% -5% -4% -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% Austin MSA U.S. Jan ‘09 Feb ‘10 July ‘01 Dec ‘03 Jan 1991 Aug 2014 Job Growth, 12-month rolling (SA) AUS U.S. 2010-13 12% 5% 2000s 13% -1% 1990s 63% 18%
  5. 5. 5 Population growth is Austin’s great stabilizer Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates. Data is for Austin-Round Rock MSA. U.S. MSA is all metropolitan areas. Austin, TX: A Theory of Everything http://civicanalytics.com/austin- texas-a-theory-of-everything/ 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Austin MSA U.S. (MSA) Population Growth, 1970-2013 Austin 2013 2.7% 2012 3.0% 2011 3.1% Austin MSA lost jobs
  6. 6. 6Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey table B15002 and Census 2000 SF3 table P37. Data is for Austin-Round Rock MSA. Bach Degree+ Pop Growth 2000-13 Rank MSA Total Pop Growth 2000-13 Rank MSA Charlotte 102% 1 35% 5 Grand Rapids 93% 2 9% 33 Las Vegas 91% 3 45% 3 Austin 80% 4 49% 2 Raleigh 79% 5 51% 1 Riverside 74% 6 34% 8 Nashville 72% 7 27% 12 Orlando 66% 8 37% 4 San Antonio 66% 9 32% 9 Phoenix 63% 10 34% 6 Austin is winning the “war for talent” Austin MSA has added 225,000 people with bachelor’s degree or higher since 2000 (~17K per year). Average earnings per worker (age 25+) with a bachelor’s degree or higher in Austin MSA are $85,608.
  7. 7. 7Source: Population forecast is from Ryan Robinson, City Demographer, Department of Planning, City of Austin, January 2014 (*) and EMSI (**). Employment forecast is from EMSI and does not include self-employment. Austin MSA: a look ahead to 2015 “The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.” John Kenneth Galbraith MSA (Pop/Emp) 2014 2015 Population* 3.0% 3.0% Population** 2.6% 2.1% Employment 3.8% 3.1% County (Emp) 2014 2015 Travis 3.4% 2.7% Williamson 5.0% 4.7% Hays 5.1% 4.2%
  8. 8. 8Source: EMSI, 2014.3 Class of Worker Data Release. Does not include self-employment. NAICS industry definitions for clusters provided by the Austin Chamber of Commerce. Cluster definitions, and therefore employment and growth figures, may be different from other studies on the Austin economy. Data is for Austin-Round Rock MSA. Chamber: Opportunity Austin 3.0 targets Industry Cluster (MSA) Employment 2014 Estimate 2014 Projected 2015 Data Management 60,185 7.4% 3.4% Creative & Digital Media 59,148 6.8% 3.7% Advanced Manufacturing 54,064 3.3% -0.8% Clean Energy & Power Technology 48,725 3.3% 1.9% Life Sciences 42,378 6.1% 3.3% Corporate HQ & Regional Offices N/A N/A N/A Our challenge: 1. Identifying education & training needs that cut across OA targets 2. Prioritizing & scaling workforce programs 3. Aligning & funding K- 12 CTE programs 4. Communicating what this will take in clear, data-driven terms
  9. 9. 7600 Burnet Road, Suite 108 Austin, Texas 78757 @civicanalytics http://civicanalytics.com

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