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Poverty on the rise in South Africa - Poverty trends in South Africa: An examination of absolute poverty between 2006 and 2015
The document analyzes poverty trends in South Africa from 2006 to 2015, highlighting that while poverty declined in most municipalities between 2001 and 2011, disparities emerged post-2011. It notes that by 2015, approximately 30.4 million South Africans lived in poverty, with significant differences across regions, demographic groups, and educational levels. The report emphasizes the role of government interventions, such as social grants and household support, in addressing poverty and inequality.
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Poverty on the rise in South Africa - Poverty trends in South Africa: An examination of absolute poverty between 2006 and 2015
- 1. POVERTY TRENDS INSOUTH AFRICA An examination of absolute poverty between 2006 and 2015 Dr Pali Lehohla Statistician-General
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- 3. • In 2001 wide dispersion of Poverty with Msinga having a poverty Headcount of around 60% • Between 2001 and 2011 poverty generally declines for all municipalities •However between 2011 and 2016 poverty trends diverge between municipalities Multidimensional Poverty by Municipalities 2001-2016 Msinga Headcount 59,8% Msinga Headcount 24,5% Intsika Yethu Headcount 27,7% Msinga Headcount 37,2%
- 4. 71% 70% 58% 55% 54% 54% 52% 50% 44% 41% 11% 10% 21% 25% 22% 26% 26% 32% 36% 32% 0,0 10,0 20,030,0 40,0 50,0 60,0 70,0 80,0 90,0 100,0 WC GP RSA FS MP KZN NW NC EC LP Salaries Remittances Pensions Grants Other sources None Considerable provincial variations are notable. Western Cape (71,0%) and Gauteng (70,0%) were the only two provinces in which more than two-thirds of households reported salaries as their main sources of income. Percentage distribution of main source of income by province, 2016 Source: GHS 2016
- 5. 63,9% 77,2% 71,9% 88,1% 94,5% 92,2% 0,0 10,0 20,0 30,0 40,0 50,0 60,0 70,0 80,0 90,0 100,0 Male FemaleTotal Percentage All older persons Older poor persons Nationally, 71,9% of all older persons in South Africa are covered by an old-age grant, whereas the coverage rate amongst older poor persons (as defined by the UBPL) was notably higher at 92,2%. Proportion of older persons (60+) receiving old age grants by sex in 2015
- 6. Government interventions towards poverty and inequality reduction About 3.6 millionhouseholds are registered as indigent households of which; 62,8% receive free electricity 67,8% receive free piped water 57,6% receive free sanitation services 57,6% receive free refuse removal services To date more than 17 million social grants are issued on monthly basis to people who qualify the means test About 4.3 million RDP houses and subsidies have been delivered since 1994 About 76.2% of pupils in South Africa are benefiting from school feeding schemes More than 20 000 schools are declared as no fee schools Source: NFCM Source: NFCM Source: SASSA and Department of Human Settlements Source: Department of Basic Education
- 7. Source: Gross domesticproduct (GDP), Q4 2016 Current state vs NDP target: Economic growth
- 8. 22,3 million (down by150 000 q-q) Labour force 16,1 million (down by 113 000 q-q) Employed 6,2 million (down by 37 000 q-q) Unemployed 14,9 million (up by 306 000 q-q) Not economically active* *Of which 2,4 million were discouraged work seekers ( up by 83 000 q-q) 37,2 million (up by 157 000 q-q) people of working age in South Africa (15 – 64 year olds) ILO hierarchy – Employed first then unemployed and the remainder is NEA (including discouraged job-seekers). 3 mutually exclusive groups. Cannot be in two groups at the same time NDP target 2030 Employment: 24 million The labour market Q2:2017
- 9. 4,4m 6,2m 0,0 1,0 2,0 3,0 4,0 5,0 6,0 7,0 Q1 Q2 Q3Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Million Number of unemployed 57,0% 67,2% 10,0 30,0 50,0 70,0 90,0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Long term unemployment Labour Market Dashboard Source: QLFS Q2 2017 Increasing number of unemployed persons were witnessed during 2008 to 2015
- 10. Reducing the proportionof persons living below the lower-bound poverty line Reduce income inequality Increase the share of income going to the bottom 40 per cent of households Reduce poverty-induced hunger Seeks to tackle poverty and inequality
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- 13. Pilot of Poverty Lines First developed as pilot lines in 2008 using the IES 2000 as its primary input 2008 2012 3 National Poverty Lines In 2012, Stats SA published the country’s official three national poverty lines 2014 1st PTR In 2014, Stats SA published the first Poverty Trends Report 2015 Stats SA published rebased poverty lines in 2015 using the latest consumption and spending patterns measured in the IES 2010/11 Rebased Poverty Lines 1 23 4 5 2nd PTR 2017 In 2017, Stats SA published the second Poverty Trends Report Stats SA adopted the cost-of-basic-needs approach for the development of the lines which links welfare to the consumption of goods and services How the poverty lines were developed
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- 15. 531 758 1 138 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 2006 20072008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 (April) 2016 (April) 2017 (April) Poverty lines at current 2017 prices
- 16. Non Poor - 45,5% Poor - 55,5% Over 30,4 millionSouth Africans were living in poverty in 2015 Upper Bound Poverty Line Poverty headcounts based on the UBPL
- 17. Upper-Bound Poverty Line Lower-Bound Poverty Line Non Poor - 45,5% Poor- 55,5% Non Poor - 60,0% Poor - 40,0% Non Poor - 74,8% Poor - 25,2% Food Poverty Line Poverty headcounts in 2015 In 2015, more than a quarter of the population were living below the food poverty line
- 18. 28,4% 33,5% 21,4% 25,2% 51,0% 47,6% 36,4% 40,0% 66,6% 62,1% 53,2% 55,5% 0,0 10,0 20,0 30,0 40,0 50,0 60,0 70,0 2006 2009 20112015 Percentage Approximately 13,8 million South Africans were living below the FPL in 2015, down from a peak of 16,7 million in 2009. Poverty headcounts based on the FPL, LBPL and UBPL
- 19. 7,4 7,2 8,68,5 10,7 7,0 7,7 8,1 13,4 16,7 11,0 13,8 15,8 18,9 24,0 24,4 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 2006 2009 2011 2015 Millions UBPL Poor LBPL Poor FPL Poor Non-Poor In PovertyNon Poor The number of poor persons in South Africa (in millions) (2006- 2015)
- 20. 77,5% 70,3% 57,3% 55,2% 53,6% 55,0% 64,7% 0 10 2030 40 50 60 70 80 0-17 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ Poverty in 2006 Children Elderly Change in poverty between 2006 and 2015
- 21. 0 10 2030 40 50 60 70 80 0-17 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ - 20,7% Points -10,7 % Points -11,7% Points -11,4% Points - 10,2 % Points -10,2 % Points - 6,3% Points Poverty in 2015 Children Elderly Change in poverty between 2006 and 2015
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- 24. 52,0 46,8 38,8 40,6 87,6 88,0 77,0 81,3 0,0 10,0 20,0 30,0 40,0 50,0 60,0 70,0 80,0 90,0 100,0 20062009 2011 2015 Percentage Rural Urban In urban areas, the poverty headcount had declined notably from 52,0% in 2006 to 40,6% in 2015. Poor people living in rural areas were not only further away from the poverty line on average, but the poorest of the poor in those areas are significantly worse off than their poor counterparts living in urban areas. Difference in poverty levels between Rural and Urban Poverty headcounts by settlement type (UBPL)
- 25. 64,1% 60,1% 51,4% 53,7% 68,9% 63,9% 54,9% 57,2% 0,0 10,0 20,0 30,0 40,0 50,0 60,0 70,0 80,0 2006 2009 20112015 Percentage Females remain more disadvantaged than males consistently recording a higher headcount, gap and severity measures at each point in time; however, the difference between the sexes is narrowing. Poverty headcounts by sex (UBPL)
- 26. 43,3 40,1 31,7 33,0 65,8 57,6 47,8 50,0 0,0 10,0 20,0 30,0 40,0 50,0 60,0 70,0 2006 2009 20112015 Percentage Male Female In 2015, the incidence of poverty for male-headed households increased to 33% (a 1,3% point increase from 2011) compared to 50% for female-headed households (a 2,2% point change from 2011) Notable drop in poverty in male- headed households between 2009 and 2011 Poverty measures of households by sex of household head (UBPL)
- 27. 76,8% 72,6% 62,4% 64,2% 56,1% 45,5% 37,1% 41,3% 20,9% 14,4% 6,5% 5,9% 1,4% 1,9% 0,9% 1,0% 0,0 10,0 20,0 30,0 40,0 50,0 60,0 70,0 80,0 90,0 20062009 2011 2015 Percentage Poverty headcounts by population group (UBPL) White In 2015, nearly 3 out of 5 black Africans were poor The Indian/Asian population group was the only group where the proportion of poor consistently decreased between 2006 and 2015
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- 30. 0,72 0,69 0,69 0,68 0,50 0,55 0,60 0,65 0,70 0,75 0,80 2006 20092011 2015 Gini coefficient Gini coefficients (income) saw a very minimal decline over the 10 year period Gini based on income per capita (2006, 2009, 2011 & 2015) The Gini coefficient is based on income per capita including salaries, wages and grants
- 31. 0,72 0,70 0,69 0,68 0,64 0,66 0,65 0,65 0,60 0,57 0,59 0,58 0,56 0,53 0,50 0,560,56 0,47 0,45 0,51 0,30 0,35 0,40 0,45 0,50 0,55 0,60 0,65 0,70 0,75 0,80 20062009 2011 2015 Gini Coefficient The population group with the highest level of inequality are black Africans Black Africans had the highest level of income inequality Both whites and Indian/Asians saw their Gini coefficients increase, with the white population rising to 0,51 and Indian/Asians returning to their 2006 level of 0,56 Gini Coefficient (Income per capita) by population group (2006, 2009, 2011 & 2015)
- 32. 350 937 195 336 124445 67 828 White-headed households (R350 937) spent five times more than black African-headed households (R67 828) and three times more than the national average Black African Coloured Indian White 444 446 271 621 172 765 92 983 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 350000 400000 450000 Average Expenditure Average Income Indians/Asian headed households (R195 336) spent almost three times more than black headed households Average annual household consumption expenditure and income by population group of household head
- 33. 30,0% 22,0% 12,5% 9,8% 25,7% 10,5% 34,0% 16,8% 15,4% 23,3% 0,0 5,0 10,0 15,0 20,0 25,0 30,0 35,0 40,0 Food Housing TransportMiscellaneous Other Poor Non-Poor Poor households spent the largest proportion (30,0%) of their total expenditure on food compared to just 10,5% in non-poor households. The biggest proportion of household expenditure for non-poor households went towards housing and utilities (34,0%) Average annual household consumption expenditure for poor and non-poor households, 2015
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- 35. Reducing the proportionof persons living below the lower-bound poverty line Reduce income inequality Increase the share of income going to the bottom 40 per cent of households Reduce poverty-induced hunger Seeks to tackle poverty and inequality Revisiting the NDP
- 36. 39,0 40 00 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 2008 20132018 2023 2028 2033 40,0 Reducing the proportion of persons living below the lower-bound poverty line from 39 per cent (in 2009) to zero by 2030 Reduce poverty-induced hunger to 0% by 2030 21,4 25,2 00 5 10 15 20 25 30 2008 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 Baseline (2009) Most Recent Figure (2015) Target Baseline (2011) Most Recent Figure (2015) Target % %
- 37. 0,7 0,68 0,6 0,58 0,6 0,62 0,64 0,66 0,68 0,7 0,72 2008 2013 20182023 2028 2033 Reduce income inequality from 0,7 in 2010 to 0,6 by 2030 Baseline (2010) Most Recent Figure (2015) Target 6 8,3 10 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 2008 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 The share of income going to the bottom 40 per cent of households should rise from 6 per cent to 10 per cent Baseline (2010) Most Recent Figure (2015) Target %
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