Presentation by Professor Jon Barnett, University of Melbourne, at the Coalition Of Low-Lying Atoll Nations on Climate Change (CANCC) peer learning cohort workshop on “National Adaptation Planning With a Focus on Coastal Adaptation” in North Malé Atoll, Maldives, between May 1 - May 3, 2024.
3. (IPCC AR6 SPM)
(Climate Action
Tracker)
Scenario Likely Range (2100)
SSP2-4.5 44 – 76 cms
SSP1-2.6 32 – 62 cms
IPCC AR6: Global average sea-level rise between 28 and 101 cms by 2100 (medium
confidence)
4. 1. An unprecedented challenge
Atolls are the most vulnerable
Everything and everyone on atolls is at risk
Adaptation is all that stands between huge losses and damages
No country has ever faced a challenge like this
• there is no precedent
• there are no rules to guide responses
5. 2. Research is not meeting the challenge
There is a key role for research and innovation for adaptation in atolls, e.g.:
• which adaptation responses have worked, and which haven’t?
• traditionally, and in past decades
• how are ecosystems, social systems, and people responding?
• how much can adaptation achieve?
• what kinds of futures are possible?
• how to plan responses over long time horizons and under conditions of
uncertainty?
• what can innovative technologies deliver?
• what do people want (and what don’t they want)?
• how is change best enabled and sustained?
6. 2. Research is not meeting the challenge
Atoll countries and territories have limited capacity to research, and so
rely on others
Systematic review of 183 social science papers on climate change
adaptation in atolls (Waters et al., forthcoming)
• 10% focus on adaptation, 21% focus on migration
• 85% focus on the sea, 15% focus on the land and people
• Focus on the impossibility of adaptation: barriers, limits, maladaptation,
and vulnerability
Researchers are chasing bad news, not solutions
7. 2. Research is not meeting the challenge
The risk of self-fulfilling prophecies…
• vulnerability = powerless to control others have to control
responses countries have less control
• forced migration means ‘giving up’ (on reducing emissions, on
adaptation)
• impacts on mental health of island people disempowering less
adaptation
Who should control the ideas about the future of atolls?
8. 3. An Atoll Futures Research Institute
An Atoll Futures Research Institute, that aims to:
• put the control of ideas about atoll futures in hands of atoll people
• establish and grow Centres of Excellence in adaptation science and
policy in each country and territory
• employ people from atolls
• train people from atolls in research on adaptation
The Centres would work together in a distributed network to form the
Institute
• supported by world class Universities in the region
10. 3. An Atoll Futures Research Institute
Proposed objectives of the Centres of Excellence could include:
1. leading research on climate change adaptation;
2. informing adaptation policies and plans with the best scientific evidence;
3. assessing proposed adaptation projects and programs;
4. evaluating current and past adaptation projects and programs;
5. consulting with stakeholders within their countries and territories on adaptation;
6. assisting in the selection of international experts and consultants;
7. attracting additional funding for research where necessary;
8. serving as a repository for government climate change policies, research, and data;
9. raising the voice of atolls in international research and media forums.
11. 3. An Atoll Futures Research Institute
Funding needed, including to:
1. Establish Centres of Excellence for adaptation in each country and territory;
2. Postgraduate scholarships for people from atolls to study adaptation;
3. Jobs for the best new graduates (with increasing staffing over time)
4. Joint field missions
5. An annual adaptation science-policy symposium
6. A coordinated program of research in each country and territory, including to:
i. take stock and evaluate past adaptation projects
ii. establish systems for monitoring changes
iii.research and development on innovative technologies and practices
iv.co-produce knowledge on complex adaptation problems
7. a technical support team
12. 3. An Atoll Futures Research Institute
Next steps / for discussion:
1. discussion, revision and then endorsement of the concept from the CANCC
members?
2. nomination of a person from each CANCC member to provide advice on suitable
funders and their conditions?
3. find a suitable funder(s)?
