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Czech republic 2018-oecd-economic-survey-towards-more-sustainable-and-inclusive-growth-presentation

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Presentation of the 2018 OECD Economic Survey of Czech Republic

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Czech republic 2018-oecd-economic-survey-towards-more-sustainable-and-inclusive-growth-presentation

  1. 1. 2018 OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF THE CZECH REPUBLIC & ENVIRONMENTAL PERFORMANCE REVIEW 2018 Prague, July 16th 2018 @OECD @OECDeconomy http://www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/economic-survey-czech-republic.htm TOWARDS MORE SUSTAINABLE AND INCLUSIVE GROWTH
  2. 2. 2 The economy is thriving Source: OECD (2018), OECD Economic Outlook: Statistics and Projections (database). Real GDP growth, year on year per cent changes -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Czech Republic OECD
  3. 3. 3 Unemployment is at a record low Source: OECD Quarterly National Accounts (database). Unemployment rate, % of labour force 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
  4. 4. 4 The exchange rate is appreciating and inflation is around the target Source: OECD (2018), OECD Economic outlook (database) and Thomson Reuters Datastream (database). 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 25.0 25.5 26.0 26.5 27.0 27.5 28.0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Y-o-y % changesCZK/EUR Exchange rate (left axis) Headline inflation (right axis)
  5. 5. 5 Well-being is higher than in other Central and Eastern European countries Note: For each dimension indicators are normalised and averaged. CEE peers are Estonia, Hungary, Poland, the Slovak Republic and Slovenia. Source: OECD (2017), OECD Better Life Index, www.oecdbetterlifeindex.org. OECD Better Life Index, 2017 Index scale 0 (worst) to 10 (best) 0 2 4 6 8 10 Income and wealth Jobs and earnings Housing Work and life balance Health status Education and skillsSocial connections Civic engagement and governance Environmental quality Personal security Subjective well-being Czech Republic OECD CEE peers
  6. 6. 6 Poverty is low Note: The poverty line is 60% of median household income. Household income is adjusted to take into account household size. Source: OECD (2018), OECD Social and Welfare Statistics (database). Population with disposable income below the poverty line, % of population, 2015 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 CZE ISL DNK SVK FIN NOR FRA AUT NLD SVN LUX DEU HUN CHE SWE IRL BEL GBR POL OECD PRT KOR NZL ITA AUS GRC CAN JPN EST ESP LVA CHL USA MEX TUR ISR
  7. 7. CHALLENGES TO SUSTAINABLE GROWTH 7
  8. 8. 8 Wages are rising due to labour market shortages Note: 2017-preliminary; vacancies refer to numbers registered at the end of the respective year and for 2018 at the end of the first quarter, preliminary. Source: Czech Statistical Office, Public Database. 0 5 000 10 000 15 000 20 000 25 000 30 000 35 000 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 CZKThousands Vacancies registered at the employment offices (left axis) Average monthly wages of employees (FTE) (right axis)
  9. 9. 9 Productivity is picking up but remains low Source: OECD (2018), OECD Productivity (database). Real GDP per person employed, growth and level 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Thousand USD PPPY-o-y % change CZE, growth (lhs) OECD, growth (lhs) CZE, level (rhs) OECD, level (rhs)
  10. 10. 10 Reconciling work and family remains difficult for mothers of young children Note: Mothers with young children refer to working-age mothers with at least one child aged 0 to 14 years. The employment gap is the difference between the employment rate of men (aged 25-54 years) and that of young mothers, expressed as a percentage of the employment rate of men. Source: OECD (2017), Employment Outlook 2017. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 DNK SWE PRT SVN NOR ISR AUT LVA FIN BEL CAN NLD FRA ISL CHE LUX ESP POL USA DEU OECD IRL EST GBR AUS GRC NZL ITA JPN HUN SVK CZE CHL KOR MEX TUR Employment gap of mothers with young children with respect to men aged 25-54, %, 2015
  11. 11. 11 The population is ageing Source: OECD (2017), Health at a Glance 2017: OECD Indicators. Percentage of population aged 65 years and over 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 ISR MEX TUR USA AUS LUX NZL NOR CHL DNK SWE ISL GBR IRL CAN FIN BEL FRA OECD LVA NLD HUN SVK CHE EST CZE AUT DEU POL SVN ITA KOR GRC PRT ESP JPN 2050 2015
  12. 12. 12 Fiscal revenues rely heavily on social contributions Source: OECD (2017), Revenue Statistics (database). 2016 or latest, % of GDP 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 MEX CHL USA NZL SVK ESP POL CZE OECD PRT EST SVN DEU HUN AUT FRA DNK Social Security Contribution Other direct taxes Indirect taxes
  13. 13. 13 Ageing-related spending will increase Source: European Commission (2018), “The 2018 Ageing Report: Economic and Budgetary Projections for the EU Member States (2016-2070)”. Based on the reference scenario. -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 FRA LVA ITA DNK POL SWE EU28 HUN SVK NLD AUT DEU BEL CZE NOR SVN Pensions Health care and long-term care Other Change in gross public expenditure between 2016 and 2070, percentage points of GDP
  14. 14. Addressing labour shortages • Increase resources to education, skilling, reskilling and upskilling. • Keep expanding the supply of affordable childcare facilities. • Increase the flexibility of jobs by better enforcement of rights to part-time work, flexible teleworking and shared jobs. Tackling long run challenges, including the impact of an ageing society • Keep some fiscal space to cope with future ageing-related spending. • Rebalance tax revenues by reducing social security contributions and raising indirect taxes (VAT through better compliance and environmental taxes). • Link tightly retirement age to life expectancy. Broaden the financing of health care and long-term care by expanding the base of contributions to all types of income. 14 Key recommendations More in the Key Policy Insights of the Economic Survey of Czech Republic 2018 and in Chapter 3 of the Environmental Performance Review
  15. 15. IMPROVING THE HEALTH CARE SYSTEM 15
  16. 16. 16 Health outcomes have improved Source: OECD (2018), Health statistics (database). Life expectancy at birth in years, 2015 2.7 2.5 2.5 4.8 2.6 1.5 2.3 3.5 1.4 3.0 1.9 2.7 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 HUN SVK POL EST CZE CHL OECD SVN GRC PRT ISR ESP 2005 Years gained during 2005-15
  17. 17. 17 Total health care expenditure is relatively low Source: OECD (2017), Health at a Glance 2017: OECD Indicators, OECD Publishing, Paris. Total health care expenditure, 2016, % of GDP 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 TUR LVA MEX LUX POL EST SVK CZE ISR HUN KOR IRL GRC CHL SVN ISL ITA PRT ESP OECD NZL FIN AUS GBR AUT DNK BEL NOR NLD CAN JPN FRA SWE DEU CHE USA
  18. 18. 18 Health spending will increase further as the population ages Note: The projections do not anticipate future policy change. Health care expenditure includes long-term health care. Non-demographic factors include e.g. technological and institutional improvements. Source: Calculations based on data from OECD (2017), System of Health Accounts (database) and European Commission (2018), Population projections from the Ageing Working Group by Eurostat. Drivers of health care expenditure, % of GDP 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5 9.0 9.5 10.0 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5 9.0 9.5 10.0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 Actual Demographic scenario (ageing only) Expansion of morbidity Compression of morbidity Combination of non-demographic and demographic
  19. 19. 19 The number of doctor consultations is high Source: OECD (2017), Health Statistics (database). Consultations per inhabitant, 2015 or nearest year 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 MEX SWE CHL NZL CHE PRT FIN NOR DNK IRL LUX ISL LVA FRA EST AUT BEL ITA SVN OECD AUS POL ESP CAN NLD TUR DEU CZE SVK HUN JPN KOR
  20. 20. 20 Adverse lifestyle affects health Source: OECD Health Statistics 2017 Litres of alcohol per capita consumed 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 TUR ISR MEX NOR CHL JPN SWE GRC ISL ITA NLD CAN FIN USA NZL OECD KOR ESP DNK CHE GBR AUS PRT SVK EST POL LVA HUN IRL DEU LUX CZE SVN FRA AUT BEL
  21. 21. 21 Health care is still too hospital centred Source: OECD (2017), OECD Health Statistics (database). Number of hospital beds per 1 000 inhabitants 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 MEX CHL SWE DNK CAN GBR TUR NZL USA ESP IRL ISR ISL ITA PRT NOR AUS NLD GRC FIN SVN CHE OECD LUX EST LVA SVK FRA BEL CZE POL HUN AUT DEU KOR JPN
  22. 22. 22 Ageing of doctors and health workers is threatening the supply of medical care Source: OECD (2017), Health at a Glance 2017. Percentage of doctors aged 55 years and over in 2015 (or nearest year) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 ITA ISR EST FRA LVA BEL DEU ISL LUX HUN DNK CZE SVK JPN USA OECD CHE SWE CAN AUT ESP CHL NZL SVN FIN AUS NLD NOR IRL KOR GBR
  23. 23. • Gradually introduce a pay-for-performance scheme for hospitals and doctors based on a broad set of performance indicators. • Reduce the scope of the reimbursement decree by limiting its coverage and leave room for negotiations between insurance funds and health providers • Align payment schemes for long-term care in health and social care setting by co- ordinating the use of user fees. • Continue reducing hospital beds by encouraging regions and municipalities to restructure capacities of health services and facilities • Strengthen the role of primary care through gate-keeping and further shift towards a better mix of capitation fees and fee-for-service for General Practitioners. • Increase the capacity of medical faculties and the number of students through scholarships and ensure the sustainable financing of universities. • Increase taxes on tobacco, alcohol and consider introducing taxes on unhealthy food and beverages. • Promote healthier lifestyles and further develop education, disease prevention and screening programmes. More in Chapter 1 of the Economic Survey of Czech Republic 2018 23 Key recommendations for improving the health care system
  24. 24. ENVIRONMENTAL PERFORMANCE REVIEW OF THE CZECH REPUBLIC Prague, July 16th 2018 @OECD @OECD Environment http://oe.cd/epr-czech-republic
  25. 25. 25 Good performance on some Sustainable Development Goals Note: This figure shows how far the Czech Republic must progress to meet the SDGs. Source: OECD (2017), "Measuring distance to the SDG targets: An assessment of where OECD countries stand". Czech performance compared with the OECD average, Distance to target (0 – target achieved) 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 Poverty Food Health Education GenderEquality Water SustainableProduction Climate Oceans Biodiversity Energy Economy Infrastructure Inequality Cities Institutions Implementation People Planet Prosperity Peace Partnership OECD Average Target
  26. 26. 26 The Czech Republic has one of the most carbon intensive economies in the OECD Notes: CO2 emissions from energy use only; excluding international marine and aviation bunkers; sectoral approach. GDP at 2010 prices and purchasing power parities. Source: IEA (2017), IEA CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion Statistics (database). CO2 emissions per unit of GDP, t/1000 USD 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 EST CAN AUS KOR CZE POL USA GRC OECD JPN ISR MEX SVN CHL DEU FIN BEL NZL NLD SVK HUN TUR LUX PRT ESP AUT ITA GBR LVA ISL IRL DNK NOR FRA SWE CHE 2015 2000
  27. 27. 27 A shift from coal to nuclear and renewables Coal Natural gas Nuclear Source: IEA (2017), IEA World Energy Statistics and Balances (database). Electricity generation by source, GWh 0 10 000 20 000 30 000 40 000 50 000 60 000 70 000 80 000 90 000 100 000 0 10 000 20 000 30 000 40 000 50 000 60 000 70 000 80 000 90 000 100 000 Nuclear Coal and coal products Natural gas Renewables and waste 4th lowest OECD share
  28. 28. 28 Achieving mid and long-term climate targets will require additional efforts Note: Total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF. Source: OECD(2017),"Air and climate: Greenhouse gas emissions by source", OECD Environment Statistics(database); MOE (2017), Climate Protection Policy. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Total GHG emissions Targets Kyoto Protocol target Greenhouse gas emissions, Mt CO2eq
  29. 29. 29 Carbon prices are low Oil Coal Natural gas Nuclear Note: The average effective tax rate is the price of carbon emissions resulting from excise taxes (it translates excise taxes on energy into rates per unit of CO2 emissions from energy use). Source: OECD (2018), Taxing Energy Use 2018: Companion to the Taxing Energy Use Database. Average effective tax rates on CO2 from energy and carbon intensity, 2015 CHE SWE USA POL CZE KOR AUS CAN EST 0 30 60 90 120 0 30 60 90 120 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4 0.45 0.5 Averageeffectivetaxrates(EUR/tCO2) Carbon intensity of GDP (kg CO2 per 2010 USD at PPP)
  30. 30. Note: Data have been updated after the finalisation of the publication. Source: OECD (2018), OECD Environment Statistics (database). 30 The rate of mortality from air pollution is among the highest in the OECD Number of premature deaths due to outdoor air pollution, per million habitants, 2016 0 200 400 600 800 1000 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 NZL AUS SWE ISL MEX FIN CAN NOR IRL ISR CHE FRA CHL EST ESP LUX USA DNK KOR OECD TUR PRT JPN GBR NLD AUT SVN ITA BEL DEU GRC CZE SVK POL LVA HUN
  31. 31. 31 Waste recovery is progressing but landfilling remains the main treatment method Notes: Data refer to the indicated year or to the latest available year. They may include provisional figures and estimates. Household and similar waste collected by or for municipalities, originating mainly from households and small businesses. Includes bulky waste and separate collection. For the specific country notes see the source database. Source: OECD (2017), "Municipal waste", OECD Environment Statistics (database); CZSO (2017) Generation, recovery and disposal of waste. Municipal waste management, by type of treatment, 2015 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Landfill Incineration without energy recovery Incineration with energy recovery Recycling and composting Other treatment
  32. 32. 32 Car traffic volume is growing in Prague’s outer zone Passenger transport in Prague, 2006=100 Note: Public transport: index based on the number of passengers transported; break in time series in 2014. Traffic volume: index based on the number of vehicles over the 24 hours of an average workday. City centre delineated at Petřín in the west, Letná in the north, Riegrovy sady in the east and Vyšehrad in the south (the Strahov and Mrázovka tunnels lie outside the central cordon). Outer zone: volume of traffic at the entrances of the main roads and motorways into the continually settled area of the city. Source: City of Prague (2006-17), Prague transport yearbook. 50 75 100 125 50 75 100 125 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Public transport Outer zone road traffic volume City centre road traffic volume
  33. 33. 33 Key recommendations 1 Towards Green growth • Strengthen political commitment to a low-carbon economy and align the State Energy Policy with the Paris Agreement objectives • Introduce a carbon component in energy product taxation to reflect the climate costs of energy use outside the EU ETS • Increase the share of permits auctioned under the EU ETS and establish a stable support framework for renewables development • Tighten environmental criteria of vehicle taxes to promote fleet renewal towards cleaner vehicles and extend distance-based charging to address air pollution and congestion
  34. 34. 34 Key recommendations 2 Improving waste management • Speed up the adoption of the new Waste Act • Harmonise the national waste management information system and official statistics on waste and materials • Review waste-related taxation in line with the waste hierarchy • Ensure that municipal waste fees cover the full costs of service provision Promoting compact cities for sustainable development • Use a functional rather than administrative approach in delimiting metropolitan areas • Adopt a compact, co-ordinated, connected urban development model • Link urban transport solutions to housing and land use planning to improve mobility and reduce air pollution • Promote the development of brownfield sites
  35. 35. 35 For more information Disclaimers: The statistical data for Israel are supplied by and under the responsibility of the relevant Israeli authorities. The use of such data by the OECD is without prejudice to the status of the Golan Heights, East Jerusalem and Israeli settlements in the West Bank under the terms of international law. This document and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area. http://www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/economic-survey-czech-republic.htm http://oe.cd/epr-czech-republic

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