Brian Kelsey's review of the latest statistics on Austin economy, as of October 2015.

1. Brian Kelsey, Principal
Civic Analytics LLC
civicanalytics.com
@civicanalytics
Austin, TX: State of the Economy
October 2015

2. 2
Presentation Topics
• Review latest available indicators
for Austin & regional economy.
• Big splash from Kauffman on the
state of entrepreneurship & tech
driven growth in Austin.
• Inclusive economic development.
• Blame California Florida?

3. 3
Economic growth in Austin outpacing most other
leading metros – 3x faster than U.S. since 2009
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%2014 2009-14
San Jose 5.8% 30.0%
Austin 5.6% 28.5%
Nashville 3.6% 19.0%
Charlotte 2.3% 16.5%
San Francisco 4.4% 14.5%
Seattle 3.3% 13.9%
Denver 4.4% 13.4%
Salt Lake City 1.8% 11.8%
Portland 3.7% 10.6%
Raleigh-Durh 2.2% 9.7%
Orlando 3.6% 5.4%
U.S. Metro 2.0% 9.8%
Real Annual GDP Growth (2014 Dollars)
Austin
U.S. Metro Portion
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Data is for Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs).

4. 4
182,700 net new jobs created in Austin since the
recession ended – ~3x faster than U.S. growth
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
2013Aug
2013Sep
2013Oct
2013Nov
2013Dec
2014Jan
2014Feb
2014Mar
2014Apr
2014May
2014Jun
2014Jul
2014Aug
2014Sep
2014Oct
2014Nov
2014Dec
2015Jan
2015Feb
2015Mar
2015Apr
2015May
2015Jun
2015Jul
2015Aug
Job Growth, 12-Month % Change
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (CES). Total nonfarm employment, seasonally adjusted. 2015 is YTD, January-August (p). 2009-15 is June 2009 to August 2015 (p).
2015 2009-15
Austin 2.5% 23.8%
San Jose 2.7% 22.8%
Nashville 2.0% 21.2%
Orlando 2.5% 16.6%
Salt Lake City 2.5% 15.7%
Denver 0.7% 15.7%
Seattle 2.0% 14.3%
Portland 2.2% 14.2%
Raleigh-Durh 1.2% 12.7%
U.S. 1.0% 8.6%

5. 5
Austin economy is partying like it’s 1999
• Unemployment rate in Austin (city)
was 2.8% in Aug—lowest period of
unemployment since dot-com era.
• Sales at Austin (city) businesses up
nearly 5% in 2014 compared to ‘13.
• Real average wages in Austin MSA
increased by 1.6% in 2014 and are
finally nearly back to pre-dot-com
bust level (> $54,000/yr).
Sources: (1) Bureau of Labor Statistics (LAUS). Not seasonally adjusted. Data is for portion of Austin in Travis County. (2) Texas Comptroller.
Gross sales, adjusted for inflation. (3) Bureau of Labor Statistics (QCEW). All industries, adjusted for inflation.

6. 6
http://www.kauffman.org/microsites/kauffman-index/rankings/metropolitan-area

7. 7
Austin is among fastest growing tech markets in U.S.
Tech Jobs % Tech 2013-14
Raleigh 57,838 9.5% 9.4%
Durham-Chapel Hill 32,920 10.4% 7.2%
San Jose 294,848 27.0% 6.4%
San Francisco 236,525 9.7% 5.7%
Austin 108,310 11.1% 5.3%
Boston 266,409 9.6% 4.0%
Seattle 175,670 8.6% 3.8%
Salt Lake City 43,686 6.1% 2.6%
Dallas 207,012 5.8% 2.2%
Washington DC 295,106 8.8% -2.4%
Nation 6,736,083 4.4% 2.6% 5.0%
6.0%
8.5%
8.9%
9.9%
11.0%
11.4%
14.8%
15.5%
16.0%
Dallas
Durham-Chapel Hill
Boston
San Jose
Washington DC
Austin
Raleigh
San Francisco
Salt Lake City
Seattle
Projected Job Growth, ‘14-’20
Source: EMSI, 2014. Includes self-employment. Published in ATC Tech Talent Study: http://austintechnologycouncil.org/atc-shares-preliminary-findings-of-tech-talent-study.

8. 8
Austin would still have at least 1,000 “core” tech job
openings per year even if every student was hired
• 108,310 total jobs in tech sector
• 67,546 jobs in “core” tech talent
occupations w/ in-demand skills
• ~2,500 to 3,500 job openings in
core tech talent occupations are
expected per year in Austin for
2014-2024 time period*
• ~1,500 degrees and certificates in
core related programs awarded by
Austin area schools annually
How are we defining “tech”?
ATC generally follows the methodology
used by TECNA/CompTIA/TechAmerica
for their annual Cyberstates report.* It
currently includes 49 industries.
Austin’s largest tech sectors ranked by
minimum of $1 billion contribution to
regional gross domestic product:
#1 Computer & Peripheral Equipment
#2 IT Services & Applications
#3 Internet & Telecommunications
#4 Semiconductors
#5 Software
Source: EMSI, 2014. Jobs include self-employment. *Job postings are unique, de-duplicated average monthly openings advertised online during March 2014-March 2015 and include job
openings at tech and non-tech businesses (i.e. total demand for core technical workers). http://austintechnologycouncil.org/atc-shares-preliminary-findings-of-tech-talent-study

9. 9http://startup-ecosystem.compass.co/ser2015/

10. 10
Austin was fastest growing (%) large metro (1M+)
and city (500K+) in U.S. from July ‘13 to July ‘14
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates.
City
Population
07/01/14
Change
2013-14
Growth
2013-14
New York 8,491,079 52,700 0.6%
Los Angeles 3,928,864 30,924 0.8%
Chicago 2,722,389 82 0.0%
Houston 2,239,558 35,752 1.6%
Philadelphia 1,560,297 4,245 0.3%
Phoenix 1,537,058 24,616 1.6%
San Antonio 1,436,697 24,931 1.8%
San Diego 1,381,069 21,225 1.6%
Dallas 1,281,047 20,322 1.6%
San Jose 1,015,785 11,964 1.2%
Austin 912,791 25,667 2.9%
Metro
Population
07/01/14
Change
2013-14
Growth
2013-14
New York 20,092,883 90,797 0.5%
Los Angeles 13,262,220 86,371 0.7%
Chicago 9,554,598 9,802 0.1%
Dallas 6,954,330 131,217 1.9%
Houston 6,490,180 156,371 2.5%
Philadelphia 6,051,170 14,942 0.2%
Washington 6,033,737 66,561 1.1%
Miami 5,929,819 66,361 1.1%
Atlanta 5,614,323 88,891 1.6%
Boston 4,732,161 34,112 0.7%
Austin (#35) 1,943,299 57,496 3.0%

11. 11
Blame California Florida: Wealthiest movers from
Bay Area/Silicon Valley, but FL leads donor states
Source: Internal Revenue Service, SOI Tax Stats.
To Travis
Origin State
Households
(Tax Returns)
2011-2014
People
(Exemptions)
2011-2014
Average Income
(AGI Per Return)
2011-2014
Florida 30,236 47,047 $55,275
California 15,602 30,135 $81,059
Georgia 10,097 18,745 $27,446
New York 9,595 15,728 $53,557
Illinois 4,698 8,478 $56,407
North Carolina 3,541 7,994 $41,286
Arizona 3,430 7,704 $47,763
New Jersey 4,137 7,526 $45,281
Michigan 4,034 6,943 $27,611
Pennsylvania 3,521 6,008 $36,872
Tennessee 2,824 5,644 $32,388
To Travis
Origin County
People
(Exemptions)
2013-2014
Williamson, TX 14,332
Miami-Dade, FL 6,466
Harris, TX 6,060
Los Angeles, CA 5,679
Dallas, TX 3,788
Maricopa, AZ 3,728
Broward, FL 3,675
Hays, TX 3,577
Cook, IL 3,349
Bexar, TX 2,867
Wayne, MI 2,865

12. 12
Employees
Respondents
Number*
Difficulty
Average
Confidence
Average
1 to 10 19 3.1 2.8
11 to 50 15 3.5 2.5
51 to 125 7 3.6 2.4
126 to 500 6 2.5 2.8
501+ 3 2.3 3.7
Total (Ans) 50 3.1 2.7
Source: ATC Tech Talent Employer Survey. Second-stage firms have reached a growth stage of $1M to $50M in receipts and 10 to 100 employees. For more on second-stage company research see
Edward Lowe Foundation at http://edwardlowe.org/who-we-serve/secondstage. *Complete responses only (n = 50). Differences not statistically significant.
1 = Not difficult
2 = Somewhat difficult
3 = Difficult
4 = Very difficult
5 = Extremely difficult
1 = Not confident
2 = Somewhat confident
3 = Confident
4 = Very confident
5 = Extremely confident
0 = I don’t know
Overall, how
difficult is it to
find qualified
people to fill
job openings at
your company
in Austin?
How confident
are you that
Austin will be
able to meet
your future
workforce
demand?
“New” Austin presents opportunities & challenges

13. 13
$38,064
$47,265
$57,357
$92,826
< High School
High School
Some College/Associate's
Bachelor's +
$38,475
$40,080
$59,994
$72,495
Black
Hispanic/Latino
White
Asian
Inclusive prosperity—ensuring as many as possible
able to participate in growing economy—is critical
Average Annual Earnings in Travis County for Workers Age 25+ (2013)
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics (LEHD), QWI, ACS 2014. See earnings definition on Slide 14. Average rent for 1 BR apartment was between $1,000 and $1,050 as of Oct 2015 according
to various reports (Mark Sprague, Independence Title). Affordability calculated as maximum 30% total income spent on housing costs. Race categories are Race Alone using Census definition. Hispanic/Latino is Any Race.
$41,880 income
needed to afford
average 1 BR apt
in Travis County.
48% residents age 25-64
do not have completed
postsecondary degree.

14. 14
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
$80,000
$90,000
$100,000
Some perspective: Austin, TX | Raleigh, NC
Average Annual Earnings for Workers Age 25+ with Bachelor’s Degree +
Wake County (Raleigh, NC)
Travis County (Austin, TX)
Source: Census, LEHD (QWI), ACS 2014. Annual earnings is calculated by averaging quarterly earnings. Earnings include gross wages/salaries, bonuses, stock options, tips, and other gratuities, and the value of meals and
lodging. Earnings do not include Old Age Survivor and Disability Insurance, health insurance, workers compensation, unemployment insurance, private pensions, and welfare funds. *Adjusted for inflation (2013 Dollars).
2013 Travis Wake
< High School $38,064 $36,036
High School $47,265 $42,507
SC/Associate's $57,357 $50,292
Bachelor's + $92,826 $77,982
2009-2013* Travis Wake
< High School 7.0% 3.0%
High School 3.9% 0.5%
SC/Associate's 2.3% -0.1%
Bachelor's + 4.3% -0.4%
1996-2013* Travis Wake
< High School 23.6% 18.3%
High School 21.8% 14.5%
SC/Associate's 23.2% 13.7%
Bachelor's + 35.0% 17.4%

15. 7600 Burnet Road, Suite 108
Austin, Texas 78757
@civicanalytics
http://civicanalytics.com