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QNBFS Weekly Market Report June 07, 2018
1. `
Page 1 of 6
Market Review and Outlook QSE Index and Volume
The Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) Index increased 361.79 points or
4.07% during the trading week to close at 9,242.30. Market
capitalization increased by 4.02% to QR511.5 billion (bn) versus
QR491.8bn at the end of the previous trading week. Of the 45
listed companies, 32 companies ended the week higher, while 9
declined and 4 remained unchanged. Qatar Insurance Co (QATI)
was the best performing stock for the week with a gain of 19.34%
on 3.9 million (mn) shares traded. On the other hand, Qatar
Navigation (QNNS) was the worst performing stock for the week
with a decline of 5.24% on 91.2k shares traded only.
Industries Qatar (IQCD), Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK), and QNB
Group (QNBK) were the primary contributors to the weekly index
gains. IQCD was the biggest contributor to the index’s weekly
increase, adding 75.59 points to the index. QIBK was the second
biggest contributor to the mentioned gains, tacking on 66.0 points
to the index. Moreover, QNBK contributed 52.69 points to the
index. However, Qatar Navigation (QNNS) deleted 14.61 points
from the index.
Trading value during the week decreased by 59.06% to reach
QR2.4bn versus QR5.8bn in the prior week. The Banks and
Financial Services sector led the trading value during the week,
accounting for 52.96% of the total trading value. The Industrials
sector was the second biggest contributor to the overall trading
value, accounting for 13.85% of the total trading value. QNBK was
the top value traded stock during the week with total traded value
of QR711.16mn.
Trading volume decreased by 37.73% to reach 62.1mn shares
versus 99.7mn shares in the prior week. The number of
transactions decreased by 23.04% to reach 29,358 transactions
versus 38,149 transactions in the prior week. The Banks and
Financial Services sector led the trading volume, accounting for
29.24%, followed by the Transportation sector which accounted
for 25.01% of the overall trading volume. Qatar Gas Transport Co.
(QGTS) was the top volume traded stock during the week with
15.4mn shares.
Foreign institutions remained bullish with net buying of
QR705.0mn vs. net buying of QR829.8mn in the prior week. Qatari
institutions remained bearish with net selling of QR202.5mn vs.
net selling of QR612.8mn in the week before. Foreign retail
investors remained bearish with net selling of QR61.4mn vs. net
selling of QR17.2mn in the prior week. Qatari retail investors
remained bearish with net selling of QR441.2mn vs. net selling of
QR199.9mn the week before. Foreign institutions bought (net
basis) ~$900mn worth of Qatari equities YTD.
Market Indicators
Week ended
June 7 , 2018
Week ended
May 31 , 2018
Chg. %
Value Traded (QR mn) 2,359.9 5,763.9 (59.1)
Exch. Market Cap. (QR mn) 511,542.2 491,781.3 4.0
Volume (mn) 62.1 99.6 (37.7)
Number of Transactions 29,358 38,149 (23.0)
Companies Traded 44 42 4.8
Market Breadth 32:9 13:28 –
Market Indices Close WTD% MTD% YTD%
Total Return 16,283.90 4.1 4.1 13.9
ALL Share Index 2,707.31 4.1 4.1 10.4
Banks and Financial Services 3,296.57 3.8 3.8 22.9
Industrials 2,935.50 3.0 3.0 12.0
Transportation 1,871.52 0.7 0.7 5.9
Real Estate 1,673.02 2.9 2.9 (12.7)
Insurance 3,279.11 12.5 12.5 (5.8)
Telecoms 1,021.92 8.8 8.8 (7.0)
Consumer Goods & Services 6,045.38 4.8 4.8 21.8
Al Rayan Islamic Index 3,628.40 3.3 3.3 6.0
Market Indices
Weekly Index Performance
Regional Indices Close WTD% MTD% YTD%
Weekly Exchange
Traded Value ($ mn)
Exchange Mkt.
Cap. ($ mn)
TTM
P/E**
P/B** Dividend Yield
Qatar (QSE)* 9,242.30 4.1 4.1 8.4 650.78 140,469.5 13.8 1.4 4.8
Dubai 3,041.72 2.6 2.6 (9.7) 358.44 105,355.4#
9.8 1.2 5.6
Abu Dhabi 4,662.58 1.2 1.2 6.0 191.86 127,928.9 12.5 1.4 5.2
Saudi Arabia#
8,383.23 2.7 2.7 16.0 5,660.17 534,493.5 18.9 1.9 3.1
Kuwait 4,837.41 0.4 0.4 (3.3) 174.83 33,757.5 14.6 0.9 4.1
Oman 4,596.51 (0.2) (0.2) (9.9) 31.26 19,293.7 11.4 1.0 5.3
Bahrain 1,263.79 (0.2) (0.2) (5.1) 27.81 19,828.4 8.2 0.8 6.5
Source: Bloomberg, country exchanges and Zawya (** Trailing Twelve Months; * Value traded ($ mn) do not include special trades, if any;
#
Data as of June 6, 2018)
8,930.98
9,117.39
9,310.51
9,327.77
9,242.30
0
9,000,000
18,000,000
8,900
9,150
9,400
3-Jun 4-Jun 5-Jun 6-Jun 7-Jun
Volume QSE Index
4.1%
2.7% 2.6%
1.2%
0.4%
(0.2%) (0.2%)(1.2%)
0.0%
1.2%
2.4%
3.6%
4.8%
Qatar(QSE)*
SaudiArabia
Dubai
AbuDhabi
Kuwait
Oman
Bahrain
2. Page 2 of 6
News
Economic & Corporate News
Qatar’s non-financial corporate sector stays healthy, says IMF
– Qatar’s non-financial corporate (NFC) sector balance sheets
have remained healthy and will be able to withstand adverse
scenarios of higher interest rate and earnings shocks,
according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The NFC
sector in Qatar has remained broadly resilient under low oil
prices and when put under interest and earnings shock, the
IMF stated in its Article IV consultation with Qatar. Though
profitability, as measured by return on equity and assets, of
Qatari corporate sector has declined, it is still high, it stated,
adding Qatari companies remain resilient in the face of
moderate to severe interest and earnings shocks. Further,
Qatar has ample fiscal space to continue with gradual fiscal
consolidation to ensure sufficient saving of the hydrocarbon
wealth for future generations, IMF stated. Strengthened
expenditure control, with emphasis on further public service
reform and accelerated reform of the public utility companies,
would help improve economic efficiency. (Gulf-Times.com,
Qatar Tribune)
Barwa gets approval to raise non-Qatari shareholding – Barwa
Real Estate Company yesterday held the company’s
Extraordinary General Assembly (EGA) and got approval for all
the items on the agenda of the meeting, including a proposal to
increase the shareholding percentage of non-Qataris in the
shares of the company from 25 percent to 49 percent of the
total shares of the company. All necessary measures are to be
taken in accordance with the relevant laws and procedures to
implement the said decision, after obtaining the approval from
the Ministry of Economy. (Peninsula)
IMF: Qatari banks on solid footing to withstand
macroeconomic shocks – Solid profitability, robust capital
base, lower bad loans and adequate provisioning help Qatar’s
banking sector withstand severe macroeconomic shocks,
according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Given the
strong starting position of Qatar’s financial system, with low
NPLs (non-performing loans) adequate provisioning, and solid
profitability, banks can comfortably withstand higher NPLs
and lower profits brought about by macroeconomic shocks.
The combined capital of banks in the sample would remain
above the Qatar Central Bank’s prescribed regulatory minimum
of 10% CAR (capital adequacy ratio) under the shock and
severe shock scenarios. Under the shock scenario, the NPLs
would rise to about 9% and CAR would drop to 15% two years
after the shock. Qatar’s banking sector remains healthy
overall, reflecting high asset quality and strong capitalization
amid challenging conditions, IMF added. In the last one year
since the blockade, Qatar’s banks have seen their profitability,
assets and capital increasing, even as they managed to reduce
costs. According to the IMF, Qatar’s banks had high
capitalization (capital adequacy ratio of 15.4%), high
profitability despite recent moderation (return on assets of
1.6%), low non-performing loans (ratio of 1.5%), and
reasonable provisioning ratio of non-performing loans (85%),
as at end-September 2017. (Gulf-Times.com)
IMF: Qatar can withstand blockade effects – Considerable
buffers and sound macroeconomic policies have helped Qatar
absorb shocks from lower hydrocarbon prices and the
diplomatic rift with some countries in the region, according to
the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Qatar’s growth
performance remains resilient and the direct economic and
financial impact of the Gulf crisis has been manageable, IMF
stated in its Article IV consultation with Qatar. The
availability of significant external and fiscal buffers and the
strong financial sector should enable the country to withstand
downside risks, including lower-than-envisaged oil prices,
tighter global conditions and an escalation of the diplomatic
rift. Terming that the near-term growth outlook is broadly
‘Positive’, it stated overall, GDP growth of 2.6% is projected for
2018. Non-hydrocarbon real GDP growth is estimated to have
moderated to about 4% in 2017 due to on-going fiscal
consolidation and the effect of the diplomatic rift. (Gulf-
Times.com)
Qatar Petroleum acquires 30% stake in two ExxonMobil
affiliates – Qatar Petroleum signed an agreement with
ExxonMobil to become 30% equity holder in two ExxonMobil
affiliates in Argentina that hold different interests in
hydrocarbon licenses for seven blocks in the world-class Vaca
Muerta play in the onshore Neuquén basin. Qatar Petroleum’s
President and CEO, Saad Sherida Al Kaabi and ExxonMobil
Corporation’s Senior Vice President and Principal Financial
Officer, Andrew P Swiger signed agreements. The agreements
will give Qatar Petroleum 30% shareholding in ExxonMobil
Exploration Argentina SRL and Mobil Argentina SA, which
hold rights with other partners for seven blocks under
unconventional exploration licenses with active drilling plans,
as well as exploitation licenses with pilot drilling and
production. (Gulf-Times.com)
Qatar Petroleum eyes oil production growth in next ten years –
Qatar Petroleum is planning to expand its production capacity
from its current 4.8mn barrels per day (bpd) equivalent of oil to
6.5mn bpd in the next eight to ten years, according to Qatar
Petroleum’s President and CEO, Saad Sherida Al Kaabi. Al
Kaabi said the planned growth in production capacity is part of
Qatar Petroleum’s long-term strategy. Al Kaabi said, “It goes
hand-in-hand with the planned expansion of our local
production from the North Field, which will further boost
Qatar’s leading global position by raising its LNG production
from 77mn to 100mn tons per year; and with the recently
announced Petrochemicals Complex project, which includes
the largest ethane cracker in the Middle East, and one of the
largest in the world.” (Gulf-Times.com)
3. Page 3 of 6
Qatar Stock Exchange
Top Gainers Top Decliners
Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE)
Most Active Shares by Value (QR Million) Most Active Shares by Volume (Million)
Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE)
Investor Trading Percentage to Total Value Traded Net Traded Value by Nationality (QR Million)
Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE)
19.3%
11.4% 11.1%
7.4% 7.0%
0.0%
7.0%
14.0%
21.0%
Qatar Insurance Ooredoo Medicare Group Mazaya Qatar Qatar Islamic
Bank
-5.2%
-3.5%
-3.1%
-2.8% -2.8%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
QatarNavigation SalamInternational
Investment
Al KhaleejTakaful
Insurance
QatarIndustrial
Manufacturing
GulfWarehousing
711.2
247.0 228.2
165.8 149.2
0.0
300.0
600.0
900.0
QNB Group Qatar Gas
Transport
(Nakilat)
Qatar Islamic
Bank
Masraf Al Rayan Qatar Insurance
15.4
6.8
4.8 4.4 4.3
0.0
6.0
12.0
18.0
Qatar Gas
Transport
(Nakilat)
Vodafone Qatar Masraf Al Rayan QNB Group Mesaieed
Petrochemical
Holding
Company
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Buy Sell
24.27%
42.96%
10.76%
19.34%
6.12%
8.72%
58.86%
28.98%
Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions
Non-Qatari Individuals Non-Qatari Institutions
827
1,533
1,470
890
(644)
644
(1,000) (500) - 500 1,000 1,500 2,000
Qatari
Non-Qatari
Net Investment Total Sold Total Bought
4. Page 4 of 6
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF THE QSE INDEX
Source: Bloomberg
The QE General Index closed up by 4.07% from the week before, and closed at 9,242.30 for Thursday’s close. The good news is that the
Index closed above the 9,000 level, which puts our next resistance at the 9,500-9,600 level. However, how support remains around the
8,600 level.
DEFINITIONS OF KEY TERMS USED IN TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
RSI (Relative Strength Index) indicator – RSI is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements. The RSI oscillates
between 0 to 100. The index is deemed to be overbought once the RSI approaches the 70 level, indicating that a correction is likely. On the other hand, if
the RSI approaches 30, it is an indication that the index may be getting oversold and therefore likely to bounce back.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator – The indicator consists of the MACD line and a signal line. The divergence or the
convergence of the MACD line with the signal line indicates the strength in the momentum during the uptrend or downtrend, as the case may be. When
the MACD crosses the signal line from below and trades above it, it gives a positive indication. The reverse is the situation for a bearish trend.
Candlestick chart – A candlestick chart is a price chart that displays the high, low, open, and close for a security. The ‘body’ of the chart is portion
between the open and close price, while the high and low intraday movements form the ‘shadow’. The candlestick may represent any time frame. We use
a one-day candlestick chart (every candlestick represents one trading day) in our analysis.
Doji candlestick pattern – A Doji candlestick is formed when a security's open and close are practically equal. The pattern indicates indecisiveness, and
based on preceding price actions and future confirmation, may indicate a bullish or bearish trend reversal.
Shooting Star/Inverted Hammer candlestick patterns – These candlestick patterns have a small real body (open price and close price are near to each
other), and a long upper shadow (large intraday movement on the upside). The Shooting Star is a bearish reversal pattern that forms after a rally. The
Inverted Hammer looks exactly like a Shooting Star, but forms after a downtrend. Inverted Hammers represent a potential bullish trend reversal.
5. Page 5 of 6
Source: Bloomberg
Company Name Price June 07
% Change
WTD
% Change
YTD
Market Cap.
QR Million
TTM P/E P/B Div. Yield
Qatar National Bank 164.00 3.39 30.15 151,477 12.0 2.5 3.7
Qatar Islamic Bank 122.80 6.98 26.60 29,017 13.1 2.1 4.1
Commercial Bank of Qatar 38.01 0.69 31.52 15,384 22.6 1.0 2.6
Doha Bank 27.16 4.26 (4.70) 8,421 8.7 1.0 11.0
Al Ahli Bank 30.20 0.67 (18.67) 6,353 9.7 1.3 3.2
Qatar International Islamic Bank 53.63 3.63 (1.78) 8,118 9.6 1.3 7.5
Masraf Al Rayan 35.01 4.60 (7.26) 26,258 12.8 2.2 5.7
Al Khalij Commercial Bank 10.90 (0.91) (23.24) 3,924 7.8 0.8 6.8
Qatar First Bank 5.41 0.00 (17.15) 1,082 N/A 0.7 N/A
National Leasing 9.69 6.25 (9.52) 479 128.5 0.5 5.2
Dlala Holding 13.59 5.84 (7.55) 386 41.4 1.7 N/A
Qatar & Oman Investment 6.25 4.17 (20.89) 197 38.0 0.7 8.0
Islamic Holding Group 27.90 1.09 (25.60) 158 N/A 1.2 N/A
Banking and Financial Services 251,254
Zad Holding 80.36 0.70 9.13 1,156 9.8 1.5 7.3
Qatar German Co. for Medical Devices 5.35 3.28 (17.18) 62 N/A 1.2 N/A
Salam International Investment 5.27 (3.48) (23.51) 602 N/A 0.4 N/A
Medicare Group 62.98 11.06 (9.84) 1,773 21.4 2.0 2.9
Qatar Cinema & Film Distribution 22.00 0.00 (12.00) 138 18.1 1.0 4.5
Qatar Fuel 143.95 6.24 41.04 14,312 13.1 2.2 5.6
Widam Food Co. 60.90 1.50 (2.56) 1,096 9.8 3.8 7.0
Mannai Corp. 47.00 1.97 (21.01) 2,144 4.2 0.8 8.5
Al Meera Consumer Goods 152.00 2.46 4.90 3,040 15.4 2.4 5.6
Consumer Goods and Services 24,324
Qatar Industrial Manufacturing 40.23 (2.80) (7.94) 1,912 9.7 1.3 7.5
Qatar National Cement 55.60 (0.68) (11.61) 3,634 10.9 1.2 8.1
Industries Qatar 108.85 6.18 12.22 65,854 18.0 2.0 4.6
Qatari Investors Group 30.99 3.30 (15.33) 3,853 15.2 1.5 2.4
Qatar Electricity and Water 190.00 0.00 6.74 20,900 12.6 2.3 4.1
Aamal 9.24 0.22 6.45 5,821 11.6 0.7 6.5
Gulf International Services 17.29 2.43 (2.32) 3,213 40.6 0.9 N/A
Mesaieed Petrochemical Holding 15.65 (1.45) 24.31 19,661 16.0 1.4 4.5
Invesment Holding Group 5.56 2.77 (8.85) 461 10.8 0.5 9.9
Industrials 125,310
Qatar Insurance 39.31 19.34 (13.08) 12,536 46.1 1.4 3.3
Doha Insurance 12.90 (0.77) (7.86) 645 15.1 0.6 5.8
Qatar General Insurance & Reinsurance 50.00 0.00 2.04 4,375 13.7 0.7 4.4
Al Khaleej Takaful Insurance 11.00 (3.08) (16.92) 281 41.9 0.6 4.5
Qatar Islamic Insurance 50.50 2.54 (8.13) 758 12.2 2.4 6.9
Insurance 18,595
United Development 14.75 1.72 2.57 5,223 10.0 0.5 8.5
Barw a Real Estate 34.63 0.99 8.22 13,475 8.3 0.7 7.2
Ezdan Real Estate 8.83 4.13 (26.90) 23,422 26.9 0.8 N/A
Mazaya Qatar Real Estate Development 6.82 7.40 (24.22) 790 48.2 0.5 N/A
Real Estate 42,909
Ooredoo 74.75 11.40 (17.63) 23,944 12.8 1.1 4.7
Vodafone Qatar 8.60 4.88 7.23 7,270 N/A 1.6 N/A
Telecoms 31,214
Qatar Navigation (Milaha) 59.70 (5.24) 6.72 6,837 13.7 0.5 5.9
Gulf Warehousing 41.26 (2.80) (6.21) 2,418 10.9 1.6 4.1
Qatar Gas Transport (Nakilat) 15.67 6.60 (2.67) 8,682 10.0 1.5 6.4
Transportation 17,937
Qatar Exchange 511,542
6. Contacts
Saugata Sarkar, CFA, CAIA Shahan Keushgerian Zaid al-Nafoosi , CMT, CFTe
Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst
Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509 Tel: (+974) 4476 6535
saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa shahan.keushgerian@qnbfs.com.qa zaid.alnafoosi@qnbfs.com.qa
Mohamed Abo Daff QNB Financial Services Co. W.L.L.
Senior Research Analyst Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666
Tel: (+974) 4476 6589 PO Box 24025
mohd.abodaff@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar
Disclaimer and Copyright Notice: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services Co. W.L.L. (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (Q.P.S.C.). QNBFS is
regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange. Qatar National Bank (Q.P.S.C.) is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and
opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or
financial advice. QNBFS accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect losses arising from use of this report. Any investment decision should depend on the individual circumstances of
the investor and be based on specifically engaged investment advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment
decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be
accurate or complete. QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect.
For reports dealing with Technical Analysis, expressed opinions and/or recommendations may be different or contrary to the opinions/recommendations of QNBFS Fundamental Research as a
result of depending solely on the historical technical data (price and volume). QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also
express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. This report may not be reproduced in whole or in
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