柏瑞週報 20190802

1. 2 August
2019

3. PAGE 2
• Trump
10
1.8935%
FOMC
10
-0.450%
•
0.05%
0.17% 435.3
•
0.11%
0.09%
0.25%
1.51%
4.53% Fitch
3.17%
Bloomberg 2019/8/1
-0.55
0.33
0.00
0.67
0.48
0.42
0.22
0.29
0.62
0.76
0.87
1.17
0.94
1.32
0.92
-1.51
-0.40
-0.17
-0.11
-0.09
-0.09
-0.08
0.05
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.35
0.55
1.09
1.10
-
-
% %

4. PAGE 3
• 7
Trump
Powell
•
600
0.47% 225 0.99%
300 1.24%
• Trump
S&P 500 1.67%
• SENSEX 2.15%
• 10
0.36%
13.84%
Bloomberg 2019/8/1
-3.93
-2.39
-3.71
-2.49
-6.72
-1.50
-1.21
-0.36
-3.36
-4.34
-0.87
-2.14
0.78
-0.05
-3.94
1.69
-3.04
-2.83
-2.82
-2.27
-2.15
-1.92
-1.68
-1.67
-1.24
-1.15
-0.99
-0.88
-0.52
-0.47
-0.04
0.36
MSCI
H
MSCI
MSCI
SENSEX
MSCI
500
300
MSCI
Nikkei 225
DAX
BOVESPA
600
RTS
% %

5. PAGE 4
Bloomberg EIA 2019/8/1
•
OPEC
• 7 26
850 ( ) 275
179 150
-5.48
-7.03
-7.01
-8.70
-4.16
-6.26
-4.60
-0.78
-0.93
-2.36
4.41
18.18
-6.15
-4.75
-4.56
-3.70
-3.37
-3.09
-2.86
-2.52
-1.80
-1.48
2.17
3.69
CRB
LME
LME
LME
LME
% %

6. PAGE 5
• 17 48
29 12
33
• 105
57 28
1 23
Bank of America Merrill Lynch EPFR 2019/7/31

8. PAGE 7
•
2%-2.25% ( 1) Powell
8 1
(MBS) 200
200 MBS
• 7
Trump 9
1 3,000 10%
25%
” ”
• 7 ISM
51.2( 2) 52
• GDP 2 GDP
3.1% 2.1% 1.8%
1
Bloomberg 2019/8/1
1
( 1)
( 2) ISM PMI (%)

9. PAGE 8
•
( 1)
•
Select Medical
• 7
124.3 135.7( 2)
124.8 6
• T-Mobile Sprint
T-Mobile Sprint
Dish Network T-Mobile
13
Bloomberg 2019/8/1
( 1)
( 2)

10. PAGE 9
• GDP GDP
1.1%( 1) 1.2%
7 CPI
1.1% 17
9
• Boris Johnson
3
2
( 2)
• Pedro Sanchez
9 23
11
Sanchez
• 7
2019
1.1% 1.0%
Bloomberg 2019/8/1
GDP
( 2)
( 1) GDP( ) (%)

11. PAGE 10
Bloomberg 2019/8/1
( 1) PMI
( 2) PMI
• 7 PMI
49.4 49.7 3
7 PMI 49.9
50( 1)
•
• 7 Markit PMI
52.1 52.5( 2)
•
2 6%
1 2018 3
PMI

13. PAGE 12
Bloomberg
/ /
8/5 美國 7月ISM非製造業指數 55.5 55.1
8/5 美國 7月Markit綜合PMI - 51.6
8/5 歐元區 7月Markit綜合PMI 51.5 51.5
8/5 德國 7月Markit綜合PMI 51.4 51.4
8/5 中國 7月財新綜合PMI - 50.6
8/6 德國 6月工廠訂單(月比) -0.1% -2.2%
8/6 澳洲 RBA現金利率目標 1.00% 1.00%
8/7 德國 6月工業生產(年比) -3.9% -3.7%
8/7 印度 RBI附買回利率 5.50% 5.75%
8/8 美國 6月躉售存貨(月比) 0.2% 0.2%
8/8 中國 7月出口(年比) -0.2% -1.3%
8/8 中國 7月進口(年比) -8.8% -7.3%
8/9 美國 7月PPI(年比) 1.7% 1.7%
8/9 日本 第2季年化GDP(季比) 0.6% 2.2%
8/9 中國 7月CPI(年比) 2.7% 2.7%
8/9 中國 7月PPI(年比) 0.0% 0.0.%
8/9-8/15 中國 7月M2貨幣供給(年比) 8.4% 8.5%

14. PAGE 13
Bloomberg ICE * ICE
10
(%) (bp)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 111.0 (8/1) 5 : 127.4
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 3.04 (8/1)
(%) (bp)*
/ / 本益比 風險
5.0
5.2
5.4
5.6
5.8
6.0
6.2
6.4
6.6
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 5.30 (8/1)
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 340.95 (8/1) 5 : 320.0

15. PAGE 14
Bloomberg
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 5.92 (8/1)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 435.3 (8/1) 5 : 458.9
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 5.92 (8/1)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 388.0 (8/1) 5 : 441.4
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險

16. PAGE 15
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan -
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 3.87 (8/1)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 370.0 (8/1) 5 : 376.3
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 7.34 (8/1)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 538.7 (8/1) 5 : 510.6

17. PAGE 16
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (EMBIG) J.P. Morgan (CEMBI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 5.34 (8/1)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 334.99 (8/1) 5 : 345.8
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 5.17 (8/1)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 337.40 (8/1) 5 : 335.2

18. PAGE 17
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (JACI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 7.17 (8/1)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 533.0 (8/1) 5 : 563.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 4.57 (8/1)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 260.53 (8/1) 5 : 256.1

19. PAGE 18
Bloomberg 12
MSCI 500
600 225
/ / 本益比 風險
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 15.8 (8/1) 5 : 16.1
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 17.1 (8/1) 5 : 17.0
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 14.1 (8/1) 5 : 14.9
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 15.1 (8/1) 5 : 17.1

20. PAGE 19
Bloomberg 12
MSCI 300
SENSEX BOVESPA
/ / 本益比 風險
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 12.2 (8/1) 5 : 12.0
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 11.9 (8/1) 5 : 12.6
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 18.7 (8/1) 5 : 18.1
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 11.1 (8/1) 5 : 12.2

21. PAGE 20
Bloomberg
VIX MOVE
CDX
/ / 本益比 風險
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 17.87 (8/1) 5 : 15.10
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
: 64.7 (8/1) 5 : 65.0
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 62.0 (8/1) 5 : 68.9
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 333.2 (8/1) 5 : 367.7

22. PAGE 21
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
'14/8/1 '15/8/1 '16/8/1 '17/8/1 '18/8/1 '19/8/1
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
'14/8/1 '15/8/1 '16/8/1 '17/8/1 '18/8/1 '19/8/1
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
'14/8/1 '15/8/1 '16/8/1 '17/8/1 '18/8/1 '19/8/1
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
'14/8/1 '15/8/1 '16/8/1 '17/8/1 '18/8/1 '19/8/1
5 1
37.6% 0.4%
29.2% 0.2%
5 1
23.4% -0.2%
31.4% 0.1%
5 1
30.5% 0.1%
30.3% 0.1%
5 1
23.0% -0.3%
26.4% 0.1%
Bloomberg
* 50% +50%
5 ( ) 5 ( )
* 5 ( ) 5 ( )

23. PAGE 22
TR108169
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